Forex News Timeline

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Q1 trimmed mean CPI fell into the RBA’s 2-3% target range for the first time since end-2021. The growth/stability trade-off likely favours more RBA cuts amid growth headwinds posed by US tariffs.

Q1 trimmed mean CPI fell into the RBA’s 2-3% target range for the first time since end-2021. The growth/stability trade-off likely favours more RBA cuts amid growth headwinds posed by US tariffs. Markets pencil an additional 25bps cut at the May RBA meeting, having expected a pause previously and lower their terminal rate projection for the RBA to 3.60% by Q3-2025 (3.85% previously), Standard Chartered's economist Nicholas Chia reports. A growth-stability backdrop that favours more cuts"Australia’s Q1 CPI was a mixed bag. Headline inflation rose 2.4% y/y, versus our estimate of a 2.2% increase (Bloomberg: 2.3%). Trimmed mean CPI, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA’s) preferred measure of underlying inflation, grew 2.9% y/y, in line with our forecast (Bloomberg: 2.8%). This is the first time since Q4-2021 that trimmed mean CPI has fallen within the RBA’s 2-3% target (Figure 1). Services inflation also eased (+3.7%) on lower rent and insurance costs, while goods inflation rose (+1.3%) on higher food and electricity prices.""All in, we think the RBA can take comfort from the broad-based easing of price pressures via the trimmed mean measure; it is forecasting terminal trimmed mean CPI of 2.7% from Q2, based on the then-market implied rate path in February. We now pencil an additional 25bps cut in Q2 at the 20 May RBA meeting, having previously expected the RBA to keep rates on pause until Q3.""We therefore lower our terminal RBA policy rate to 3.60% by Q3 (3.85% previously). We do not preclude a cut in Q4, but much hinges on trade talks and whether the US dials back its tariff agenda. We expect the RBA to frame policy accommodation in May as a pre-emptive cut to mitigate the impact of the sharp rise in trade tensions on economic growth. There is one more labour market report due in May as well as the Q1 wage print prior to the May RBA meeting, but we think the bar to deter the central bank from easing is higher now given the considerable headwinds to economic growth."

The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.4% in the three months to March of 2025 after growing by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, the preliminary estimate released by Eurostat showed Wednesday.

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Yesterday saw the next round of poor sentiment indicators from the US. According to the Conference Board, US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

Yesterday saw the next round of poor sentiment indicators from the US. According to the Conference Board, US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. This is now ‘old news’ for the currency market it seems, with USD exchange rates barely reacting, Commerzbank's FX analyst Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Poor data results can put pressure on the USD"Don't be put off by US President Trump's effusive praise for his tariffs at some rally. He has already shown that he reacts to such pressure — for example with the 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs or the withdrawal of tariffs for various sectors, which was undoubtedly in response to the slump on the stock markets as well as protests from the affected industries. The faster and more severely the US economy threatens to collapse, the more likely it seems to me that Trump will reverse much of his trade policy. If, on the other hand, the US economy shows signs of resilience, he could feel vindicated in his strategy and leave the tariffs at higher levels.""Following Trump's open criticism of the US Federal Reserve, which he believes is not lowering interest rates quickly enough, it is highly likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting in May — not only because of the increased inflation risks, but also to send a signal of independence. In an environment in which economic momentum is threatening to weaken very quickly, this move would appear all the more hawkish and therefore dollar-positive — given that it is not signalling that it could cut interest rates at one of its next meetings.""In view of today's upcoming US data (GDP and ADP employment survey), this means that poor results could put pressure on the dollar in the short term. However, they increase the chance of a de-escalation in the US trade conflict, which could ultimately benefit the US currency."

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) above expectations (0.2%) in 1Q: Actual (0.4%)

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) came in at 1.2%, above forecasts (0.2%) in 1Q

Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in April

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM): 0.5% (April) vs previous 1.6%

Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (2%) in April

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) below forecasts (2.3%) in April: Actual (2.1%)

Greece Retail Sales (YoY): 4.6% (February) vs 1.9%

Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM): 9% (March) vs 8.6%

Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 0.6% to 2.1% in March

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) above forecasts (1%) in 1Q: Actual (1.2%)

The USD/CAD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move through the first half of the European session on Wednesday and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past two weeks.

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Traders seem reluctant and opt to wait for key US macro releases before placing directional bets.The USD/CAD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move through the first half of the European session on Wednesday and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past two weeks. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3835-1.3840 region and seem to draw support from a combination of factors.Crude Oil prices slump to a nearly three-week low amid worries that an all-out trade war could trigger a global recession and dent fuel demand. Moreover, several members of OPEC+ reportedly will suggest an acceleration of output hikes for a second consecutive month in June. This adds to concerns over mounting supply and exerts additional downward pressure on the black liquid, which, in turn, is seen undermining the commodity-linked Loonie. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, the USD uptick lacks any obvious fundamental catalyst and could be attributed to some repositioning trade ahead of the key US macro data, amid the month-end flow. However, the prospects for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), bolstered by Tuesday's disappointing US economic releases, might hold back the USD bulls from placing fresh bets. Moreover, US President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies led to a mass pivot away from US assets recently, which should cap the buck and the USD/CAD pair. The Canadian Dollar (CAD), on the other hand, continues to draw support from the Liberal Party's win Canadian federal election, which strengthens the incumbent Prime Minister Mark Carney’s position in trade negotiations with the US. This further contributes to keeping a lid on any meaningful upside for the USD/CAD pair and warrants caution for bulls. Traders now look forward to key US macro releases – the ADP report on private-sector employment, the Advance Q1 GDP print, and the Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index.Wednesday's economic docket also features the release of the monthly Canadian GDP print, which, along with Oil price dynamics, should influence the CAD and provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair later during the early North American session. Nevertheless, the aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets around the currency pair. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product Annualized The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 30, 2025 12:30 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 0.4% Previous: 2.4% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Why it matters to traders? The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on an annualized basis for each quarter. After publishing the first estimate, the BEA revises the data two more times, with the third release representing the final reading. Usually, the first estimate is the main market mover and a positive surprise is seen as a USD-positive development while a disappointing print is likely to weigh on the greenback. Market participants usually dismiss the second and third releases as they are generally not significant enough to meaningfully alter the growth picture.

Speaking at a symposium on economic development on Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that “China needs to adapt to changing situations.”

Speaking at a symposium on economic development on Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that “China needs to adapt to changing situations.”Additional commentsUrge measures to stabilize employment, markets and expectations.China to adjust economic plan based on global change.To promote transformation of traditional industries.Should taken into account domestic and external risks, challenges in a holistic manner.Will study and roll out a batch of balanced and accessible policy measures for people's livelihoods.Should aim for breakthroughs in core, cutting-edge technologies.

The oil market continued to decline for a third straight session this morning, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

The oil market continued to decline for a third straight session this morning, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Prices are about to witness their record monthly loss"WTI is trading back below $60/bbl while ICE Brent is down about 15% this month, with prices about to witness their record monthly loss. Lingering tariff risks and expectations of OPEC+ loosening output curbs continue to pressure oil prices. Meanwhile, a bearish inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) further weighed on prices.""Numbers overnight from the API show that US crude oil inventories increased by 3.8m barrels over the last week, in contrast to the 0.8m barrel draw the market was expecting. Cushing crude oil stocks increased by 674k barrels. As for refined products, the API estimates that gasoline stocks decreased by 3.1m barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 2.5m barrels.""Despite the recent weakness in the oil market, demand for Middle East crude appears to remain stable, with the market expecting Saudi Arabia to raise the official selling price by around US$0.3/bbl for Asian buyers for June deliveries. Earlier, Saudi Arabia reduced its official selling price for its Arab Light grade into Asia for May loading by US$2.30/bbl – the biggest cut since 2022."

The US Dollar (USD) continues to be pulled by opposing forces: US President Donald Trump’s scaling back of some protectionism measures versus data evidence of a US slowdown. Ultimately, the tiebreak for FX impact seems to be equities performance.

The US Dollar (USD) continues to be pulled by opposing forces: US President Donald Trump’s scaling back of some protectionism measures versus data evidence of a US slowdown. Ultimately, the tiebreak for FX impact seems to be equities performance. US stocks had a good day yesterday as some tariff exemptions for auto parts outweighed poor data, and the dollar was moderately stronger across the board. We also believe some month-end rebalancing contributed to supporting the dollar, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. USD is set to be neutral on Wednesday"Today, all eyes will be on the US first-quarter GDP print. Economists have revised their forecasts lower following yesterday’s much wider-than-expected goods trade deficit figures for March, and consensus now sits at -0.1% quarter-on-quarter annualised. Our economics team agrees that a negative read is quite likely. Markets will, anyway, look at how much of the slowdown is attributable to rising imports due to pre-tariff hoarding relative to an effective slowdown in consumption.""The other two key releases today are the ADP employment figures for April and March’s core PCE (the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation). The latter is expected to slow down to 0.1% month-on-month, which may lead to some Fed members feeling more comfortable when discussing easing prospects, and can potentially fuel some momentum to fully price in a cut in June (now 17bp factored in).""We have a neutral bias on the dollar today. While the data flow should continue to prove a net-negative, markets are clearly welcoming Trump’s efforts to ease some tariff pain. We still believe that a constant flow of constructive news on trade (especially regarding China) is needed to keep equities and the dollar supported, but for now, it might be enough to let the dollar stabilise into Friday’s payrolls."

EUR/JPY halts its two-day losing streak, trading around 162.40 during the European session on Wednesday. The currency cross holds ground following the release of key economic data from Germany.

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The currency cross holds ground following the release of key economic data from Germany.The preliminary data from Destatis showed Germany’s economy grew 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, in line with expectations, following a 0.2% contraction in Q4 2024. However, the annual GDP declined by 0.2%, matching the previous quarter’s reading and market forecasts.Germany’s Retail Sales increased 2.2% year-over-year in March, slowing from February’s 4.3% rise. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held steady at 6.3% in April—its highest since September 2020—meeting expectations. Traders now turn their attention to the upcoming releases of Germany’s CPI and the Eurozone GDP later in the day.The EUR/JPY cross finds support as the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to weaken, pressured by disappointing domestic economic data. Japan’s industrial production fell 1.1% month-over-month in March, reversing February’s 2.3% gain and missing expectations of a 0.4% decline. This marks the second monthly contraction in 2025, raising concerns over the economic impact of potential US tariffs.Japan’s Retail Sales rose 3.1% year-over-year in March, slightly below the forecast of 3.5%, but extended expansion streak to 36 consecutive months. Despite support from rising wages, the slower pace suggests emerging headwinds to consumer spending.Additionally, the Japanese Yen remains under pressure amid reduced demand for safe-haven assets, as optimism over US-China trade relations grows. US President Donald Trump signaled readiness to ease tariffs on Chinese goods, while Beijing offered exemptions for select US imports previously hit with high duties. German economy FAQs What is the effect of the German Economy on the Euro? The German economy has a significant impact on the Euro due to its status as the largest economy within the Eurozone. Germany's economic performance, its GDP, employment, and inflation, can greatly influence the overall stability and confidence in the Euro. As Germany's economy strengthens, it can bolster the Euro's value, while the opposite is true if it weakens. Overall, the German economy plays a crucial role in shaping the Euro's strength and perception in global markets. What is the political role of Germany within the Eurozone? Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone and therefore an influential actor in the region. During the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2009-12, Germany was pivotal in setting up various stability funds to bail out debtor countries. It took a leadership role in the implementation of the 'Fiscal Compact' following the crisis – a set of more stringent rules to manage member states’ finances and punish ‘debt sinners’. Germany spearheaded a culture of ‘Financial Stability’ and the German economic model has been widely used as a blueprint for economic growth by fellow Eurozone members. What are German Bunds? Bunds are bonds issued by the German government. Like all bonds they pay holders a regular interest payment, or coupon, followed by the full value of the loan, or principal, at maturity. Because Germany has the largest economy in the Eurozone, Bunds are used as a benchmark for other European government bonds. Long-term Bunds are viewed as a solid, risk-free investment as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the German nation. For this reason they are treated as a safe-haven by investors – gaining in value in times of crisis, whilst falling during periods of prosperity. What are German Bund Yields? German Bund Yields measure the annual return an investor can expect from holding German government bonds, or Bunds. Like other bonds, Bunds pay holders interest at regular intervals, called the ‘coupon’, followed by the full value of the bond at maturity. Whilst the coupon is fixed, the Yield varies as it takes into account changes in the bond's price, and it is therefore considered a more accurate reflection of return. A decline in the bund's price raises the coupon as a percentage of the loan, resulting in a higher Yield and vice versa for a rise. This explains why Bund Yields move inversely to prices. What is the Bundesbank? The Bundesbank is the central bank of Germany. It plays a key role in implementing monetary policy within Germany, and central banks in the region more broadly. Its goal is price stability, or keeping inflation low and predictable. It is responsible for ensuring the smooth operation of payment systems in Germany and participates in the oversight of financial institutions. The Bundesbank has a reputation for being conservative, prioritizing the fight against inflation over economic growth. It has been influential in the setup and policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).

Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) rose from previous 2.3% to 2.4% in April

Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.4% to 0.5% in April

Spain Current Account Balance: €2.31B (February) vs €1.2B

Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.2% to 0.5% in April

Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) down to 2.2% in April from previous 2.3%

Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) increased to 2.4% in April from previous 2.2%

Germany Saxony CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 2.5% to 2.4% in April

Germany Saxony CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.6% to 0.5% in April

The German economy expanded by 0.2% over the quarter in the first quarter of 2025, following a 0.2% contraction in the final quarter of 2024, according to the preliminary data published by Destatis on Wednesday. Markets expected a 0.2% growth in the reported period.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}German GDP rose 0.2% QoQ in Q1 vs. 0.2% forecast.Annual German GDP declined 0.2% in Q1 vs. -0.2% anticipated.EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.1400 after the German Q1 GDP report.The German economy expanded by 0.2% over the quarter in the first quarter of 2025, following a 0.2% contraction in the final quarter of 2024, according to the preliminary data published by Destatis on Wednesday. Markets expected a 0.2% growth in the reported period.Meanwhile, the annual GDP rate dropped by 0.2% in Q1 after -0.2% recorded in Q4 and an expected reading of -0.2%.Separately, the German Unemployment Rate stayed at 6.3% in March.EUR/USD reaction to the German GDP dataThe German data fails to provide any support to the Euro (EUR), leaving EUR/USD trading 0.09% lower on the day near 1.1375 at the press time. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.07% 0.20% 0.27% -0.01% -0.12% 0.14% 0.11% EUR -0.07% 0.14% 0.21% -0.08% -0.19% 0.08% 0.05% GBP -0.20% -0.14% 0.08% -0.21% -0.33% -0.06% -0.10% JPY -0.27% -0.21% -0.08% -0.29% -0.40% -0.07% -0.14% CAD 0.00% 0.08% 0.21% 0.29% -0.11% 0.16% 0.13% AUD 0.12% 0.19% 0.33% 0.40% 0.11% 0.26% 0.24% NZD -0.14% -0.08% 0.06% 0.07% -0.16% -0.26% -0.03% CHF -0.11% -0.05% 0.10% 0.14% -0.13% -0.24% 0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.4% to 0.5% in April

Italy Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.3%, above expectations (0.2%) in 1Q

Italy Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 0.6% (1Q)

Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.3% to 0.4% in April

Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 1.9% to 1.8% in April

Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) remains unchanged at -0.4% in 1Q

Germany Hesse CPI (YoY) down to 2.3% in April from previous 2.4%

Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY) declined to 2.1% in April from previous 2.3%

Germany Bavaria CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0.3% to 0.4% in April

Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.2%) in 1Q

Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets forecasts (-0.2%) in 1Q

Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations down to -51.6 in April from previous -10.7

The Pound Sterling (GBP) corrects to near 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session from its fresh three-year high of 1.3445 posted on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling retraces against the US Dollar to near 1.3400 ahead of a slew of US economic data, notably the Q1 GDP release.The US economy is expected to have expanded at a slight pace of 0.4% in the January-March period.BoE Greene expects Trump’s tariff policy to be net disinflationary for the economy.The Pound Sterling (GBP) corrects to near 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session from its fresh three-year high of 1.3445 posted on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair drops slightly as the US Dollar (USD) ticks higher ahead of a string of top-tier key United States (US) economic data, notably the preliminary Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data release in the North American session.The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is expected to report that the economy grew at a slower pace of 0.4% on an annualized basis, much lower than the prior reading of 2.4%. Economists have anticipated a moderate GDP growth on expectations of a slowdown in economic activity in the face of hefty tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump earlier this month. Trump’s sweeping additional tariffs on its trading partners have led to an increase in global economic uncertainty, including in the US. Theoretically, Trump’s protectionist policies should prompt domestic industry to ramp up their production to offset lower imports, but ever-changing headlines from the White House over import duties have forced them to put their expansion plans on hold.Additionally, investors will focus on the Q1 Employment Cost Index, ADP Employment Change data for April, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for March. The Employment Cost Index, which measures change in total employee cost for a company, is expected to have risen steadily by 0.9%. In the US private sector, employers are expected to have hired 108K fresh workers in April, significantly lower than 155K in March.Meanwhile, the core PCE inflation data, which is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, is expected to have grown by 2.6%, slower than the 2.8% increase seen in February. Signs of easing job growth and cooling inflationary pressures would boost market expectations that the Fed could reduce interest rates in the June policy meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 65% chance that the central bank will reduce interest rates in June. For the May policy meeting, traders are almost fully pricing in that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.Fed officials have indicated that interest rates should remain at their current level until they get clarity on how new economic policies by Donald Trump shape the economic outlook. On Tuesday, Trump criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell again for not lowering interest rates, while commemorating his first 100 days in office. Trump didn’t mention Powell explicitly, but his comments and past record with him indicated so.“You’re not supposed to criticize the Fed, you’re supposed to let him do his own thing, but I know much more than he does about interest rates, believe me,” Trump said. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling trades lower against its peersThe Pound Sterling underperforms its peers in European trading hours on Wednesday as traders have become increasingly confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in its monetary policy meeting on May 8. BoE dovish bets have escalated amid fears that the new tariff policy by the US will ease inflationary pressures and weaken United Kingdom (UK) economic growth.BoE policymaker Megan Greene said that the potential trade war would be “net disinflationary” for the UK economy, in a discussion with the Atlantic Council think tank on Friday. Greene warned about shockwaves in the job market in the face of an increase in employers’ contribution to social security schemes to 15% from 13.8%, which has become effective this month.Last week, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stressed the need to consider trade war risk by the central bank. "We do have to take very seriously the risk to growth, Bailey said at the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Spring Meetings in Washington. This week, the UK economic calendar has nothing important to offer. Therefore, external forces would be the key driver of the British currency. The Pound Sterling has remained underpinned against the US Dollar amid elevated uncertainty over the US-China trade war. Washington wants China to initiate trade discussions with them, given its significant reliance on their exports to the US. “I believe that it’s up to China to de-escalate, because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, Bessent said in an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Monday. Meanwhile, Beijing has vowed to fight the tariff war to protect its interests and dignity.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling stays above all key EMAsThe Pound Sterling retraces to near 1.3400 against the US Dollar from the three-year high of 1.3445. However, the overall outlook of the pair remains bullish as all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds after cooling down to 60, currently at around 65, indicating a resurgence in the upside trend.On the upside, the round level of 1.3600 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the April 3 high around 1.3200 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance. indicated

Germany Unemployment Change below expectations (20K) in March: Actual (4K)

Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. meets expectations (6.3%) in March

The NZD/USD pair extends losses for the second successive session, trading around 0.5920 during early European hours on Wednesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}NZD/USD may challenge the psychological resistance at 0.5950, with potential to extend gains toward the six-month high of 0.6038.The 14-day RSI holding above the 50 mark signals a continued bullish bias.A decisive break below the nine-day EMA could undermine the short-term bullish momentum.The NZD/USD pair extends losses for the second successive session, trading around 0.5920 during early European hours on Wednesday.Technical indicators on the daily chart suggest a short-term neutral bias, with the pair treading water around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Further movement will offer a clear directional trend.However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still positioned above the 50 mark, suggesting the bullish bias is persistent. If 14-day RSI rises toward the 70 mark, it could reinforce the bullish market sentiment.On the upside, the immediate barrier appears at the psychological level of 0.5950. Further resistance appears at the six-month high of 0.6038, last seen in November 2024. A sustained break above this level could open the doors to explore the area around its seven-month high near 0.6350, recorded in October 2024.The successful break below the nine-day EMA could weaken the short-term bullish momentum and open the door for further downside toward the 50-day EMA at 0.5799.Further depreciation would deepen the bearish bias and put the downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair to test support at 0.5485—a level not visited since March 2020.NZD/USD: Daily Chart New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.07% 0.14% 0.31% 0.00% -0.18% 0.13% 0.13% EUR -0.07% 0.07% 0.26% -0.08% -0.26% 0.06% 0.06% GBP -0.14% -0.07% 0.15% -0.14% -0.32% -0.01% -0.02% JPY -0.31% -0.26% -0.15% -0.31% -0.47% -0.12% -0.15% CAD -0.00% 0.08% 0.14% 0.31% -0.17% 0.13% 0.13% AUD 0.18% 0.26% 0.32% 0.47% 0.17% 0.31% 0.31% NZD -0.13% -0.06% 0.01% 0.12% -0.13% -0.31% 0.00% CHF -0.13% -0.06% 0.02% 0.15% -0.13% -0.31% -0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 30:

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 30:Following Tuesday's choppy action, financial markets remain relatively quiet early Wednesday as investors gear up for high-tier data releases. The European economic calendar will feature first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for Germany and the Eurozone, alongside monthly Unemployment Rate and Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures from Germany. In the second half of the day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish its first estimate of the Q1 GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index numbers for March. The ADP Employment Change data will also be scrutinized by investors. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.14% -0.57% -0.60% -0.28% -0.03% 0.50% -0.52% EUR 0.14% -0.49% -0.47% -0.16% 0.02% 0.63% -0.40% GBP 0.57% 0.49% 0.04% 0.35% 0.49% 1.12% 0.11% JPY 0.60% 0.47% -0.04% 0.35% 0.61% -0.31% 0.40% CAD 0.28% 0.16% -0.35% -0.35% 0.13% 0.78% -0.22% AUD 0.03% -0.02% -0.49% -0.61% -0.13% 0.63% -0.40% NZD -0.50% -0.63% -1.12% 0.31% -0.78% -0.63% -1.01% CHF 0.52% 0.40% -0.11% -0.40% 0.22% 0.40% 1.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). After edging higher during the European trading hours on Tuesday, the US Dollar (USD) Index lost its traction and closed the day with small gains. The data from the US showed that JOLTS Job Openings came in at 7.19 million in March, missing the market expectation of 7.5 million. Early Wednesday, the USD Index fluctuates in a tight channel above 99.00.In the Asian session on Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the CPI inflation held steady at 2.4% on a yearly basis in the first quarter. This reading came in above analysts' estimate of 2.2%. Commenting on inflation data, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that the market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures, adding that he doesn't see anything in these numbers that would substantially alter market expectations. After losing more than 0.7% on Tuesday, AUD/USD holds steady at around 0.6400 in the European morning.EUR/USD failed to build on Monday's gains and closed marginally lower on Tuesday. The pair moves sideways below 1.1400 in the European morning. Earlier in the day, the data from Germany showed that Retail Sales declined by 0.2% on a monthly basis in March.GBP/USD fluctuates in a narrow band at around 1.3400 in the European morning on Wednesday. Following Monday's sharp decline, USD/JPY found its footing and registered small gains on Tuesday. The pair continues to edge higher toward 143.00 to begin the European session. Early Thursday, the Bank of Japan will announce monetary policy decisions.Gold struggles to gather directional momentum and moves up and down in a tight channel above $3,300 early Wednesday. GDP FAQs What is GDP and how is it recorded? A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.

Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) rose from previous 1.9% to 2% in 1Q

Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade with a negative bias at the start of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 96.71, with the EUR/INR pair declining from its previous close at 96.95.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade with a negative bias at the start of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 96.71, with the EUR/INR pair declining from its previous close at 96.95.Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades at 113.78 against the INR in the early European trading hours, also losing ground after the GBP/INR pair settled at 114.20 at the previous close. Indian economy FAQs How does the Indian economy impact the Indian Rupee? The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR. What is the impact of Oil prices on the Rupee? India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee. How does inflation in India impact the Rupee? Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee. How does seasonal US Dollar demand from importers and banks impact the Rupee? India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.

Austria Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.2% (1Q) vs -0.4%

Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) unchanged at 0% in March

Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) increased to 0.8% in March from previous -0.1%

Turkey Trade Balance up to -7.2B in March from previous -7.77B

The EUR/GBP cross trades in positive territory near 0.8500 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) remains strong after the German economic data. Traders will shift their attention to the advanced estimate of Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from Germany later on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/GBP gains traction to around 0.8500 in Wednesday’s early European session.Retail Sales in Germany rose 2.2% YoY in March.Traders expected the BoE to cut its rate by a quarter-point to 4.25% in the May policy meeting.The EUR/GBP cross trades in positive territory near 0.8500 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) remains strong after the German economic data. Traders will shift their attention to the advanced estimate of Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from Germany later on Wednesday. Also, the preliminary Q1 GDP Growth Rate for the Eurozone will be released on the same day.Data released by Destatis on Wednesday showed that Retail Sales in Germany declined 0.2% MoM in March, compared to the 0.8% growth seen in February. This figure came in better than the estimation of -0.4%. On an annual basis, Retail Sales rose 2.2% in March versus 4.3% prior (revised from 4.9%). The shared currency attracts some buyers in an immediate reaction to the stronger-than-expected German Retail Sales data. Additionally, traders raise their bets that the Bank of England (BoE) will reduce interest rates when it announces its next move on May 8, which might drag the GBP lower. Financial markets have priced in nearly a 96% possibility that the BoE will cut its rate by a quarter-point to 4.25% when it announces its next move on May 8, according to a Reuters poll. Traders will keep an eye on the preliminary Eurozone GDP report, which might influence the EUR. The Eurozone economy is expected to grow 0.2% QoQ in the first quarter (Q1). If the reports show a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the EUR in the near term.   Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) registered at 0.6% above expectations (0.3%) in April

France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) above forecasts (0.7%) in April: Actual (0.8%)

France Producer Prices (MoM) climbed from previous -0.8% to -0.6% in March

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $938.30 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $939.50.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $938.30 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $939.50.In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $982.80 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, advancing after the XPT/USD pair settled at $982.15 at the previous close.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Wednesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $59.37 per barrel, down from Tuesday’s close at $59.91.

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Retail Sales in Germany declined 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in March, following the 0.8% growth reported in February, according to official data released by Destatis on Wednesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}Retail Sales in Germany rose 2.2% over the year in March.EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.1400.Retail Sales in Germany declined 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in March, following the 0.8% growth reported in February, according to official data released by Destatis on Wednesday.The market expectations was for a -0.4% reading.On an annual basis, Retail Sales rose 2.2% in March, compared to February’s 4.9% surge.Market reactionThese data fail to move a needle around the Euro (EUR). At the press time, EUR/USD is trading modestly flat on the day at 1.1380. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.04% 0.08% 0.13% -0.04% -0.48% -0.20% -0.05% EUR -0.04% 0.06% 0.08% -0.09% -0.53% -0.24% -0.09% GBP -0.08% -0.06% 0.04% -0.13% -0.57% -0.29% -0.15% JPY -0.13% -0.08% -0.04% -0.17% -0.61% -0.28% -0.16% CAD 0.04% 0.09% 0.13% 0.17% -0.44% -0.16% -0.01% AUD 0.48% 0.53% 0.57% 0.61% 0.44% 0.28% 0.43% NZD 0.20% 0.24% 0.29% 0.28% 0.16% -0.28% 0.15% CHF 0.05% 0.09% 0.15% 0.16% 0.00% -0.43% -0.15% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Germany Import Price Index (YoY) down to 2.1% in March from previous 3.6%

Germany Retail Sales (YoY) down to 2.2% in March from previous 4.9%

United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) came in at -0.6% below forecasts (-0.1%) in April

United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY): 3.4% (April) vs previous 3.9%

South Africa Private Sector Credit: 3.45% (March) vs previous 3.68%

Germany Retail Sales (MoM) above forecasts (-0.4%) in March: Actual (-0.2%)

Germany Import Price Index (MoM) came in at -1% below forecasts (-0.7%) in March

The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to publish its preliminary estimate of first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Wednesday, with analysts expecting the data to show annualized growth of just 0.4%, a sharp slowdown from the 2.4% pace recorded in the final quarter o

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label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media 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translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The United States Gross Domestic Product is seen expanding at an annualised rate of 0.4% in Q1.Investors will focus on the potential impact of tariffs on the economy.The US Dollar looks consolidative in the lower end of its yearly range.The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to publish its preliminary estimate of first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Wednesday, with analysts expecting the data to show annualized growth of just 0.4%, a sharp slowdown from the 2.4% pace recorded in the final quarter of 2024.Markets brace for key US growth data amid tariff jitters, inflation concernsMarkets are on edge ahead of Wednesday’s release of the US preliminary GDP figures for the first quarter—widely considered the most market-moving estimate of the three issued each quarter. Beyond headline growth, the report also includes fresh Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge.This quarter’s numbers carry particular weight, as investors look for early signs of the economic fallout from President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs. With both output and domestic prices in focus, the data could offer crucial clues about the broader macroeconomic impact of the administration’s trade policies.The release follows the Fed’s March 18-19 meeting, where policymakers delivered a mixed outlook in their latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), commonly referred to as the “dot plot.” Officials marked down growth expectations for 2025, even as they penciled in slightly stronger PCE inflation. The revisions reflect growing uncertainty within the central bank over the balance of risks to the US economy.Also included in the report is the GDP Price Index – commonly called the GDP deflator – which measures inflation across all domestically produced goods and services, including exports but excluding imports. It’s expected to rise to 3.1% for the first quarter, up from 2.3% in the final months of 2024, offering further insight into how inflation is weighing on real output.Adding to the caution, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model – closely watched for its real-time tracking of economic activity – forecasted a sharp 2.7% contraction in Q1 GDP as of its April 27 update.When will the GDP print be released and how can it affect the US Dollar Index?The US GDP report, due at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday, could prove pivotal for the US Dollar as investors weigh the strength of the economy against persistent inflation pressures and the spectre of tariffs. Alongside the headline growth figure, markets will scrutinize updates to the GDP Price Index and the Q1 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, key data points that could shift expectations for Federal Reserve policy and the Dollar’s direction.A stronger-than-expected GDP print may temporarily ease fears of a stagflationary environment, potentially offering a brief reprieve for the struggling Greenback.However, the broader technical outlook for the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains decisively bearish. The index continues to trade beneath its 200-day and 200-week simple moving averages (SMAs), now positioned at 104.48 and 102.70, respectively.Downside levels remain in focus, with support eyed at 97.92 – the 2025 low marked on April 21 – and 97.68, a key pivot from March 2022. Any upside correction could first target the psychologically significant 100.00 handle, followed by the interim 55-day SMA at 103.64 and the March 26 swing high of 104.68.Momentum indicators underscore the bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has slipped to around 36, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) has climbed above 55, suggesting growing strength behind the recent downward move. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product Annualized The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Mar 27, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Quarterly Actual: 2.4% Consensus: 2.3% Previous: 2.3% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Why it matters to traders? The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on an annualized basis for each quarter. After publishing the first estimate, the BEA revises the data two more times, with the third release representing the final reading. Usually, the first estimate is the main market mover and a positive surprise is seen as a USD-positive development while a disappointing print is likely to weigh on the greenback. Market participants usually dismiss the second and third releases as they are generally not significant enough to meaningfully alter the growth picture.

The EUR/USD pair recovers a few pips from the vicinity of the mix-1.1300s, or the Asian session low, though it lacks any follow-through amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1375 area and remain confined in a familiar range held over the past week or so.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD ticks lower on Wednesday amid a modest USD strength, though it lacks follow-through.Bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Fed cap the USD upside and lend support to the pair.Traders now look forward to key Eurozone/US macro releases for some meaningful opportunities.The EUR/USD pair recovers a few pips from the vicinity of the mix-1.1300s, or the Asian session low, though it lacks any follow-through amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1375 area and remain confined in a familiar range held over the past week or so.The USD attracts buyers for the second straight day amid some repositioning trade ahead of this week's key US macro data. The shared currency, on the other hand, is undermined by dovish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB), which turns out to be another factor acting as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. In fact, traders are pricing in a roughly 75% chance of another rate cut by the ECB in June.The bets were reaffirmed by ECB policymaker Olli Rehn's remarks on Monday, saying that the underlying inflationary pressures in the Eurozone are easing and that we should not rule out rate cuts below neutral rate. Moreover, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone said on Tuesday that the trade policy uncertainty could reduce euro area business investment and real GDP growth by around 0.2% in 2025-26. The USD bulls, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets amid worries that Trump's erratic trade policies could trigger a sharp economic slowdown. Adding to this, firming expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon contributes to capping the USD and acts as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair, warranting some caution before positioning for any meaningful intraday decline.Traders now look to the release of the flash German, French, and Italian CPI prints, which, along with the prelim Eurozone GDP report, will influence the shared currency. Meanwhile, the US economic docket features the ADP report on private-sector employment, the Advance Q1 GDP, and the Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. This might drive the USD and provide some impetus to the EUR/USD pair. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Eurostat on a quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the Eurozone during a certain period of time. The GDP and its main aggregates are among the most significant indicators of the state of any economy. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 30, 2025 09:00 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 0.2% Previous: 0.2% Source: Eurostat

GBP/USD extends its decline for a second straight session, hovering near 1.3390 during Wednesday’s Asian trading. The pair is under pressure as the US Dollar strengthens on renewed optimism surrounding US-China trade developments.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD depreciates as the US Dollar strengthens ahead of the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index release.The Greenback appreciates as yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds snap a four-day losing streak.The British Pound faces pressure amid rising expectations that the BoE will cut interest rates at its May policy meeting.GBP/USD extends its decline for a second straight session, hovering near 1.3390 during Wednesday’s Asian trading. The pair is under pressure as the US Dollar strengthens on renewed optimism surrounding US-China trade developments. Traders now turn their attention to the upcoming release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for March, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, remains comfortably above the 99.00 mark, meanwhile a rebound in US Treasury yields. Both the 2-year and 10-year yields on US bond coupons snapped a four-day losing streak, trading around 3.66% and 4.17%, respectively, at the time of writing.On the data front, Tuesday’s US JOLTS report revealed a drop in job openings to 7.19 million in March—its lowest level since September 2024—suggesting cooling labor demand. The figure fell short of expectations and highlighted rising economic uncertainty.Adding to the GBP/USD pair downside, the British Pound (GBP) is weighed by growing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut rates at its May meeting. Softer inflation expectations in the United Kingdo (UK) and rising global economic headwinds have fueled dovish bets.BoE policymaker Megan Greene recently commented that tariffs proposed by US President Donald Trump might lead to lower inflation in the UK, though significant uncertainties remain regarding the broader economic impact and recent tax hikes for employers. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The USD/CHF pair posts modest losses around 0.6410 during the early European session on Wednesday. The uncertainty surrounding trade policy continues to boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc (CHF). The Swiss KOF Leading Indicator for April is due later on Wednesday. 

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF trades with mild losses near 0.6410 in Wednesday’s early European session.Trade tensions and rising uncertainty boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the CHF.US ADP Employment Change, PCE and the preliminary reading of Q1 GDP will be the highlights later on Wednesday.The USD/CHF pair posts modest losses around 0.6410 during the early European session on Wednesday. The uncertainty surrounding trade policy continues to boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc (CHF). The Swiss KOF Leading Indicator for April is due later on Wednesday. China exempted some US imports from its 125% tariffs last week, although China quickly knocked down US President Donald Trump's assertion that trade talks between the two countries were underway. On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that key trade partners have made "very good" offers to avoid US tariffs.  Markets remain cautious, particularly as conflicting messages from Washington and Beijing add to uncertainty. This, in turn, provides some support to the safe-haven currency like the CHF and creates a headwind for USD/CHF. Traders await the US economic data later on Wednesday, including the US ADP Employment Change, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), and the preliminary reading of Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). All eyes will be on the US April Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday. The NFP is expected to show 130K job additions in April, while the Unemployment Rate is estimated to remain at 4.2%. In case of a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the Greenback against the CHF in the near term. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

FX option expiries for Apr 30 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Apr 30 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1150 888m1.1250 1.7b1.1390 1.3b1.1425 686mUSD/JPY: USD amounts                                 140.50 2.1b142.00 2b145.00 2b146.00 815mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6250 702m0.6500 551mNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.5950 521m

Japan Leading Economic Index meets expectations (107.9) in February

Japan Coincident Index increased to 117.3 in February from previous 116.9

Japan Housing Starts (YoY) came in at 39.1%, above forecasts (1%) in March

Japan Annualized Housing Starts rose from previous 0.805M to 1.08M in March

Japan Construction Orders (YoY) climbed from previous -3.3% to 3.5% in March

Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 9,043.76 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,079.31 it cost on Tuesday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 105,483.70 per tola from INR 105,899.30 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,043.76 10 Grams 90,436.80 Tola 105,483.70 Troy Ounce 281,289.70   2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by a combination of factors; downside potential seems limited President Donald Trump signed an order on Tuesday to ease tariff effects on the auto industry, giving carmakers two years to increase the share of domestic parts in US-assembled vehicles. This adds to the optimism over progress on trade negotiations and signs of the potential de-escalation of US-China trade tensions. The US Dollar attracts some buyers for the second straight day and also acts as a headwind for the Gold price. Investors, however, remain on the edge as Trump's erratic trade policies continue to fuel worries about a sharp economic slowdown. Moreover, bets that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon should cap any meaningful USD upside. Dovish Fed expectations were reaffirmed by the disappointing US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index released on Tuesday. In fact, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that US job openings fell to 7.19 million by the last day of March from 7.480 million in the previous month. Adding to this, the US Consumer Confidence Index slumped to 86.0 in April, or a nearly five-year low. Furthermore, the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index dropped to 133.5 and 54.4, respectively, during the reported month. The data strengthens the case for more aggressive policy easing by the Fed and should support the non-yielding yellow metal. On the geopolitical front, Russia dismissed Ukraine’s proposal to extend Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unilateral three-day ceasefire to 30 days. Moreover, the US threatened to stop its efforts to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine if both parties didn't deliver concrete proposals. This further contributes to limiting the downside for the XAU/USD pair. Traders now look to Wednesday's US economic docket – featuring the ADP report on private-sector employment, the Advance Q1 GDP print, and the Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. This, along with the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday, should provide cues about the Fed's policy outlook and influence the commodity in the near term. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.   Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

AUD/JPY edges higher after registering gains in the previous two sessions, trading around 91.30 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

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The currency cross is supported by a stronger Australian Dollar (AUD), buoyed by inflation data out of Australia and mixed Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from China.Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, up from 0.2% in Q4 2024 and exceeding expectations of a 0.8% rise, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). On an annual basis, CPI climbed 2.4% in Q1, beating the forecast of 2.2%. Monthly CPI held steady at 2.4% in March year-over-year, while the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Trimmed Mean CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year.Despite the stronger inflation print, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that markets still anticipate further interest rate cuts. “The market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures,” he stated, adding that there’s “nothing in these numbers that would substantially alter market expectations.”Meanwhile, in China, the latest data added to concerns over economic momentum. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, falling below the 49.9 consensus and signaling a return to contraction. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also slipped to 50.4 from 50.8, missing the expected 50.7.On Japan’s side, the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to weaken on the back of disappointing economic data. Industrial production in March fell 1.1% month-over-month, reversing a 2.3% gain in February and missing the expected 0.4% decline. It marks the second drop in 2025 amid growing concerns about the impact of potential US tariffs.Retail Sales in Japan rose 3.1% year-over-year in March, below forecasts of a 3.5% increase but still marking the 36th consecutive month of expansion. Although consumption remains supported by rising wages, the slower pace of growth may signal mounting headwinds. Economic Indicator RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a quarterly basis, measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The QoQ reading compares prices in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. The trimmed mean, which is a measure of underlying inflation, is calculated as the weighted average of the central 70% of the quarterly price change distribution of all CPI components in order to smooth the data from the more-volatile components. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Wed Apr 30, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Quarterly Actual: 0.7% Consensus: 0.7% Previous: 0.5% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Why it matters to traders? The quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has a significant impact on the market and the AUD valuation. The gauge is closely watched by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in order to achieve its inflation mandate, which has major monetary policy implications. Rising consumer prices tend to be AUD bullish, as the RBA could hike interest rates to maintain its inflation target. The data is released nearly 25 days after the quarter ends.

Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick and slides back below the $33.00 mark, hitting a fresh daily low in the last hour.

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The setup seems tilted in favor of bears and supports prospects for further losses.A sustained strength beyond the $33.70 hurdle would negate the negative bias.Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick and slides back below the $33.00 mark, hitting a fresh daily low in the last hour. From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD has been showing resilience below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, which is currently pegged near the $32.60 region. The said area should act as a key pivotal point. Given that oscillators on the daily chart have been losing traction and are holding in negative territory on the 4-hour chart, a convincing break below will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the slide towards the next relevant support near the $32.10-$32.00 region. Some follow-through selling will suggest that the recent recovery from the $28.00 mark, or the year-to-date low, has run out of steam and pave the way for deeper losses. The subsequent fall could drag the white metal to the $31.70 intermediate support en route to the $31.55-$31.50 region and eventually to sub-$31.00 levels, or the 200-day SMA.On the flip side, any positive move beyond the $33.20 immediate hurdle could attract some sellers near the $31.55 region and remain capped near the $33.70 barrier. A sustained strength beyond the latter should allow the XAG/USD to reclaim the $34.00 mark and climb to the $34.30 resistance. The white metal might then test the $34.55-$34.60 resistance, or the highest level since October 2024 touched last month, before aiming to conquer the $35.00 psychological mark.Silver 4-hour chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price continues its decline for a third consecutive session, trading near $59.50 per barrel during Asian hours on Wednesday.

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The downward pressure on Oil stems from growing fears over weakening global economic growth and fuel demand, largely triggered by US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies.WTI is on track for a monthly loss exceeding 15%, marking its steepest decline since November 2021. The escalating trade conflict between the world’s two largest Oil consumers—the US and China—has heightened recession fears. Trump's tariffs on imports have prompted retaliatory measures from China, deepening the trade standoff and further dampening economic outlooks, according to a Reuters poll.Economic sentiment in the United States (US) took another hit on Tuesday as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped sharply to 86.0 in April from a revised 93.9 in March—its lowest level since April 2020. The decline reflects rising public concern over the impact of tariffs.On the supply side, US crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels last week, according to market sources citing data from the American Petroleum Institute (API). Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a much smaller build of around 400,000 barrels.Looking ahead, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, may consider expediting its planned production hikes at their upcoming meeting on May 5. Sources told Reuters that several member nations are likely to push for additional output increases in June, which could add further downward pressure on Oil prices. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with a negative bias for the second consecutive day, though it lacks bearish conviction and holds above the $3,300 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday.

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The global equity markets continue to rise amid signs of easing US-China trade tensions and US President Donald Trump's decision to give flexibility on tariffs to US carmakers. This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, is seen as a key factor undermining demand for the safe-haven precious metal.Meanwhile, Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policies has been received poorly by investors and led to a mass pivot away from US assets recently. Adding to this, prospects for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), amid heightened concerns over the economic impact of tariffs, might continue to act as a headwind for the USD. This, in turn, lends some support to the non-yielding Gold price and helps limit the downside, warranting some caution for bearish traders. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by a combination of factors; downside potential seems limitedPresident Donald Trump signed an order on Tuesday to ease tariff effects on the auto industry, giving carmakers two years to increase the share of domestic parts in US-assembled vehicles. This adds to the optimism over progress on trade negotiations and signs of the potential de-escalation of US-China trade tensions. The US Dollar attracts some buyers for the second straight day and also acts as a headwind for the Gold price. Investors, however, remain on the edge as Trump's erratic trade policies continue to fuel worries about a sharp economic slowdown. Moreover, bets that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon should cap any meaningful USD upside.Dovish Fed expectations were reaffirmed by the disappointing US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index released on Tuesday. In fact, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that US job openings fell to 7.19 million by the last day of March from 7.480 million in the previous month.Adding to this, the US Consumer Confidence Index slumped to 86.0 in April, or a nearly five-year low. Furthermore, the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index dropped to 133.5 and 54.4, respectively, during the reported month. The data strengthens the case for more aggressive policy easing by the Fed and should support the non-yielding yellow metal. On the geopolitical front, Russia dismissed Ukraine’s proposal to extend Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unilateral three-day ceasefire to 30 days. Moreover, the US threatened to stop its efforts to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine if both parties didn't deliver concrete proposals. This further contributes to limiting the downside for the XAU/USD pair. Traders now look to Wednesday's US economic docket – featuring the ADP report on private-sector employment, the Advance Q1 GDP print, and the Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. This, along with the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday, should provide cues about the Fed's policy outlook and influence the commodity in the near term.Gold price might continue to show resilience below the 38.2% Fibo. and attract dip-buyers below the $3,300 markTechnical indicators on the daily chart hold comfortably in the positive territory and favor the XAU/USD bulls. Hence, any further weakness below the $3,300-3,290 immediate support, representing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest leg up from the vicinity of mid-$2,900s or the monthly swing low, might continue to find decent support near the $3,265-3,260 zone. A convincing break below the latter, however, would set the stage for an extension of the recent pullback from the all-time peak touched last week. The downward trajectory might then drag the Gold price to the 50% retracement level, around the $3,225 region, en route to the $3,200 mark. On the flip side, the Asian session high, around the $3,328 region, could act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $3,348-3,353 area. This is closely followed by the $3,366-3,368 supply zone, which if cleared should allow the Gold price to reclaim the $3,400 mark. The momentum could extend further toward the $3,425-3,427 intermediate hurdle before bulls make a fresh attempt to conquer the $3,500 psychological mark. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens on Wednesday, pressured by rising geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. Many tourist sites in Kashmir have been closed since Tuesday, as traders react to unverified reports of military activity.

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Many tourist sites in Kashmir have been closed since Tuesday, as traders react to unverified reports of military activity.Nonetheless, positive domestic markets and a decline in crude oil prices might help limit the INR’s losses. Foreign investors have stepped up buying of Indian stocks over the last week, a reversal from the selling pressure witnessed earlier in the month. Looking ahead, traders will keep an eye on the US ADP Employment Change, which is due later on Wednesday. Also, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) and the preliminary reading of Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be published. On Friday, all eyes will be on the US April Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.Indian Rupee remains weak as tensions between India and Pakistan escalate Pakistan’s minister for information and broadcasting said Islamabad has “credible intelligence” that India intends to launch a military strike within the next 24 to 36 hours, per Aljazeera. “While sentiment is slightly positive for the rupee given the pick up in portfolio inflows, geopolitical flare-ups remain a risk for the currency”, said Dilip Parmar, a forex research analyst at HDFC Securities.Pakistan’s defence minister stated on Monday that a military incursion by neighboring India was imminent in the aftermath of a deadly militant attack on tourists in Kashmir last week, per Reuters.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that many top trading partners of the US had made 'very good' proposals to avert US tariffs, and one of the first deals to be signed would likely be with India. US job openings fell to 7.19 million in March, the lowest since September 2024, compared to a revised 7.48 million in February, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. This figure came in below the market consensus of 7.5 million. The US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined to 86.0 in April from 93.9 in March (revised from 92.9). This figure registered the lowest level since April 2020.The possibility of a rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) jumped to 56.8% as weaker-than-expected labor and sentiment data increased concerns about economic momentum.  USD/INR sticks to negative bias under the 100-day EMAThe Indian Rupee trades on a weaker note on the day. The bearish bias of the USD/INR remains in place, characterized by the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. Furthermore, the bearish momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is located below the midline near 39.70.A breach of the lower limit of the descending trend channel of 84.70  could attract selling interest enough to put the pair toward 84.22, the low of November 25, 2024. Extended losses could see a drop to 84.08, the low of November 6, 2024.On the bright side, the key upside barrier for the pair is seen at 85.78, the 100-day EMA. Sustained trading above the mentioned level could suggest that a major reversal is in the works and pave the way to 86.35, the upper boundary of the trend channel.  Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

USD/CAD is holding gains for a second consecutive session, trading near 1.3840 during Wednesday’s Asian session. The pair remains supported as the US Dollar (USD) benefits from renewed optimism surrounding US-China trade developments.

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The pair remains supported as the US Dollar (USD) benefits from renewed optimism surrounding US-China trade developments. Market focus now shifts to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for March and Canada’s GDP data for February, both due later in the day.Contributing to the upbeat sentiment, US President Donald Trump expressed a willingness to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, while China announced exemptions for certain US imports from its 125% tariff list. These developments have sparked hopes that the prolonged trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies may be nearing resolution.Meanwhile, US labor data on Tuesday suggested some weakness, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showing a decline to 7.19 million in March, down from a revised 7.48 million in February and below the market expectation of 7.5 million. This marks the lowest level since September 2024, signaling cooling labor demand amid rising economic uncertainty.The Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains under pressure as investors digest the implications of a narrow Liberal minority victory. Prime Minister Mark Carney will now need to seek coalition support to govern, potentially leading to targeted fiscal spending commitments.Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) decision to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75%—citing sticky core inflation and the dual risk of a US-led recession or economic stagnation if tariffs are lifted—has dampened expectations for any imminent rate cuts. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

The NZD/USD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction during the Asian session on Wednesday and languishes near the lower end of a nearly two-week-old trading range. Spot prices hold steady around the 0.5930 region and move little following the release of Chinese PMIs.

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The NZD/USD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction during the Asian session on Wednesday and languishes near the lower end of a nearly two-week-old trading range. Spot prices hold steady around the 0.5930 region and move little following the release of Chinese PMIs.The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) contracted to 49 in April, compared to 50.5 in the previous month and 49.9 expected. Moreover, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI eased more than expected, to 50.4 in the current month from 50.8 in March. However, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.2 to 50.4 in April, beating the market forecast of 49.9. The data fails to provide any meaningful impetus to antipodean currencies, including the Kiwi, amid mixed signals about US-China trade talks. However, a positive risk tone – bolstered by the potential for a de-escalation of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies and progress on trade negotiations – acts as a tailwind for the perceived riskier New Zealand Dollar (NZD). That said, a modest US Dollar (USD) strength holds back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the NZD/USD pair. Meanwhile, the range-bound price action witnessed over the past two weeks or so warrants some caution before positioning for firm near-term direction ahead of this week's key US macro releases.Wednesday's US economic docket features the ADP report on private-sector employment, the Advance Q1 GDP print, and the Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. The focus will then shift to the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, which may provide insight into the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook. This, in turn, will play a crucial role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the NZD/USD pair. Economic Indicator NBS Manufacturing PMI The NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at manufacturing companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Renminbi (CNY). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for CNY. Read more. Last release: Wed Apr 30, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 49 Consensus: 49.9 Previous: 50.5 Source: China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing Why it matters to traders? The monthly manufacturing PMI is released by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) on the last day of every month. The official PMI is released before the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which makes it even more of a leading indicator, highlighting the health of the manufacturing sector, considered as the backbone of the Chinese economy. The data is of high relevance for the financial markets throughout several asset classes, given China’s influence on the global economy.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Wednesday that “the market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures.”

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Wednesday that “the market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures.”He added: “(I) don't see anything in these numbers that would substantially alter market expectations.” Related news Australian Dollar gains ground following CPI, China's PMI data Australia’s CPI inflation climbs to 0.9% QoQ in Q1 vs. 0.8% expected China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI drops to 50.4 in April vs. 49.9 expected

The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Wednesday and oscillates in a narrow trading range against its American counterpart during the Asian session amid mixed cues. US President Donald Trump signed an order to ease the impact of new tariffs on the auto industry.

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Expectations for additional BoJ rate hikes in 2025 support the JPY amid subdued USD price action. The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Wednesday and oscillates in a narrow trading range against its American counterpart during the Asian session amid mixed cues. US President Donald Trump signed an order to ease the impact of new tariffs on the auto industry. Signs of further trade deals remain supportive of a positive risk tone. Apart from this, disappointing domestic data turns out to be key factors capping the safe-haven JPY. Traders, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and opt to wait for the outcome of a crucial two-day Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting starting today. The BoJ will announce its decision on Thursday and is widely expected to hold interest rates steady amid heightening risks to the fragile economy from US tariffs. However, signs of broadening inflation in Japan keep the door open for further BoJ policy normalization, which might continue to act as a tailwind for the JPY. Japanese Yen traders move to the sidelines ahead of the crucial BoJ meeting starting this WednesdayUS President Donald Trump signed an order that will allow US carmakers to reduce the amount they pay in import taxes on foreign parts. Moreover, White House officials said that parts made in Canada and Mexico that follow North American free trade rules would not face tariffs.This comes on top of progress on trade negotiations and hopes for further trade deals, which remains supportive of a positive risk tone. In fact, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that many top US trading partners have made "very good" tariff proposals. Government data released earlier this Wednesday showed that Japan's Industrial Production shrank 1.1% in March, much more than expected. Adding to this, Japan's Retail Sales also fell short of estimates and grew 3.1% YoY in March, acting as a headwind for the Japanese Yen. The Bank of Japan kickstarts its policy meeting today and will announce its decision on Thursday. The central bank is expected to move cautiously and pause further interest rate hikes amid growing concerns that the new US tariffs could sharply slow Japan's economic growth.Expectations beyond the April meeting are divided amid mixed economic signals from Japan. However, persistent inflationary pressures and bumper pay hikes offered by big firms this year give the BoJ headroom to continue tightening its monetary policy this year. In contrast, the disappointing US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index released on Tuesday strengthened the case for the resumption of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle in the coming months.In fact, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that US job openings dropped sharply, to 7.19 million by the last day of March from the 7.480 million (revised from 7.56 million) open positions reported in the previous month. This reading was below expectations of 7.5 million.Adding to this, the US Consumer Confidence Index slumped to 86.0 in April, or a nearly five-year low, amid concerns over the potential economic fallout from Trump's tariffs. Furthermore, the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index fell to 133.5 and 54.4, respectively. CME FedWatch Tool puts the odds of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in June at 65%. Traders are also pricing in up to 100 bps in cuts by year-end, a key factor keeping the US Dollar near multi-year lows. Traders now look to Wednesday's key US data – the ADP report on private-sector employment, the Advance Q1 GDP, and the Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. Adding to this the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday may provide insight into the Fed's policy outlook.In the meantime, the divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations should continue to act as a tailwind for the lower-yielding JPY and cap the upside for the USD/JPY pair. USD/JPY bears need to wait for a sustained break below the 142.00 mark before placing fresh betsFrom a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair earlier this week struggled to find acceptance above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and faced rejection near the 144.00 mark. The subsequent downfall and negative oscillators on hourly/daily charts validate the near-term negative outlook. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the 142.00 mark before positioning for deeper losses. Spot prices might then accelerate the fall towards the mid-141.00s en route to the 141.10-141.00 region. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the 140.50 intermediate support before the pair eventually drops to the multi-month low – levels below the 140.00 psychological mark touched last week.On the flip side, the 142.60-142.65 region is likely to act as an immediate hurdle, above which a bout of a short-covering could lift the USD/JPY pair beyond the 143.00 mark, towards the next relevant resistance near the 143.40-143.45 zone. A sustained strength beyond the latter should allow spot prices to conquer the 144.00 round figure. Acceptance above the latter would suggest that the currency pair has formed a near-term bottom and pave the way for some meaningful upside. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is gaining ground on Wednesday following a more than 0.50% decline against the US Dollar (USD) in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair appreciates following the release of key economic data from Australia and China.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar is regaining ground after the release of key economic data from both Australia and China.Australia’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% QoQ in Q1, up from a 0.2% previous increase and a 0.8% expected rise.China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, returning to contraction in the sector.The Australian Dollar (AUD) is gaining ground on Wednesday following a more than 0.50% decline against the US Dollar (USD) in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair appreciates following the release of key economic data from Australia and China.The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, up from a 0.2% increase in Q4 2024 and exceeding market expectations of a 0.8% rise. On an annual basis, CPI climbed 2.4% in the first quarter, beating the forecast of 2.2%.Australia’s Monthly CPI held steady with a 2.4% year-over-year increase in March. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Trimmed Mean CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year in Q1, in line with expectations, while the quarterly figure also met forecasts at 0.7%.In China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slipped to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, falling short of the 49.9 consensus and indicating a return to contraction. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also softened, easing to 50.4 in April from 50.8 in March, below the expected 50.7.The AUD faced headwinds amid ongoing global trade uncertainties that continue to dampen investor sentiment. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures in Australia in early 2025 have weakened expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Markets widely anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut in May, as policymakers prepare for possible economic fallout from the recently introduced US tariffs.Australian Dollar recovers ground as confidence in American assets weakensThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, is maintaining its position above the 99.00 level at the time of writing. Attention now turns to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report for March, due later on Wednesday.On Tuesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) openings dropped to 7.19 million in March, down from a revised 7.48 million in February and below the market forecast of 7.5 million. This marks the lowest level since September 2024, reflecting softening labor demand amid growing economic uncertainty in the United States (US).US President Donald Trump signaled openness to reducing Chinese tariffs, while Beijing exempted certain US goods from its 125% levies. This move has fueled hopes that the prolonged trade war between the world's two largest economies might be drawing to a close.President Trump said that there has been progress, and he has talked with China’s President Xi Jinping. However, a Chinese embassy spokesperson on Friday firmly denied any current negotiations with the US, stating, "China and the US are not having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs." The spokesperson urged Washington to "stop creating confusion."According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump intends to lessen the impact of his automotive tariffs by ensuring that duties on foreign-made cars do not stack with other tariffs and by reducing levies on foreign parts used in car production.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that he interacted with Chinese authorities last week but did not mention tariffs. Bessent stated that while the US government is in communication with China, it is up to Beijing to make the first move to ease the tariff dispute, given the trade imbalance between the two countries.Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Tuesday that making concessions and retreating would only embolden the bully, emphasizing that dialogue is key to resolving differences.China's Finance Ministry stated on Friday that global economic growth remains sluggish, with tariffs and trade wars continuing to undermine economic and financial stability. The ministry urged all parties to enhance the international economic and financial system through stronger multilateral cooperation, per Reuters.Australian Dollar moves below 0.6400; tests nine-day EMAThe AUD/USD pair is hovering around 0.6390 on Wednesday, with the daily chart reflecting a bullish outlook. The pair continues to trade above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds well above the 50 level—both suggesting sustained upward momentum.On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the recent four-month high of 0.6449, which was reached on April 29. A decisive break above this level could pave the way for a move toward the five-month high at 0.6515.The nine-day EMA at 0.6382 appears as the immediate support, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6314. A break below these support levels would weaken the bullish structure and may expose the pair to deeper losses, potentially targeting the March 2020 low around 0.5914.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.24% 0.12% 0.07% 0.06% -0.22% 0.01% 0.03% EUR -0.24% -0.11% -0.16% -0.18% -0.46% -0.22% -0.20% GBP -0.12% 0.11% -0.08% -0.07% -0.35% -0.11% -0.10% JPY -0.07% 0.16% 0.08% -0.02% -0.29% 0.00% -0.02% CAD -0.06% 0.18% 0.07% 0.02% -0.28% -0.04% -0.02% AUD 0.22% 0.46% 0.35% 0.29% 0.28% 0.24% 0.26% NZD -0.01% 0.22% 0.11% -0.00% 0.04% -0.24% 0.02% CHF -0.03% 0.20% 0.10% 0.02% 0.02% -0.26% -0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY) The Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The indicator was developed to provide inflation data at a higher frequency than the quarterly CPI. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Wed Apr 30, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 2.4% Consensus: - Previous: 2.4% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 50.4 in April from 51.2 in March, according to the latest data released on Wednesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 50.4 in April from 51.2 in March, according to the latest data released on Wednesday.Data outpaced the market forecast of 49.9.AUD/USD reaction to China’s PMI dataThe upbeat Chinese Manufacturing PMI helped the Aussie Dollar maintain its gain, as AUD/USD holds near 0.6400 at the time of writing, up 0.29% the day. Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.12% 0.05% -0.01% -0.02% -0.24% -0.07% -0.05% EUR -0.12% -0.06% -0.13% -0.13% -0.36% -0.19% -0.15% GBP -0.05% 0.06% -0.08% -0.07% -0.29% -0.13% -0.10% JPY 0.01% 0.13% 0.08% -0.01% -0.22% -0.00% -0.01% CAD 0.02% 0.13% 0.07% 0.01% -0.22% -0.06% -0.02% AUD 0.24% 0.36% 0.29% 0.22% 0.22% 0.16% 0.19% NZD 0.07% 0.19% 0.13% 0.00% 0.06% -0.16% 0.03% CHF 0.05% 0.15% 0.10% 0.01% 0.02% -0.19% -0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI registered at 50.4 above expectations (49.9) in April

China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) contracted to 49 in April, compared to March’s 50.5. The reading came in below the market consensus of 49.9 in the reported month. 

China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) contracted to 49 in April, compared to March’s 50.5. The reading came in below the market consensus of 49.9 in the reported month. more to come ...

China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (50.7) in April: Actual (50.4)

Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) remains at 6.5% in March

Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) meets forecasts (0.5%) in March

Australia Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (2.2%) in 1Q: Actual (2.4%)

China NBS Manufacturing PMI registered at 49, below expectations (49.9) in April

Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.7%) in 1Q

Australia Consumer Price Index (QoQ) registered at 0.9% above expectations (0.8%) in 1Q

Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.9%) in 1Q

Japanese Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Wednesday that they are “assessing impact of recent changes to US auto tariffs.”

Japanese Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Wednesday that they are “assessing impact of recent changes to US auto tariffs.”He added that the “aim is to make progress in US tariff talks, based on the understanding that a win-win agreement is crucial.”

On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2014 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2029 and 7.2670 Reuters estimate.

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New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence declined to 49.3 in April from previous 57.5

The GBP/USD pair trades with mild gains near 1.3405 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The weaker-than-expected US economic data drags the Greenback lower.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD posts modest gains around 1.3405 in Wednesday’s early Asian session. US Job Openings fell to the lowest level since September; CB Consumer Confidence dropped below consensus. BoE's Greene said Trump tariffs are likely to push down UK inflation. The GBP/USD pair trades with mild gains near 1.3405 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The weaker-than-expected US economic data drags the Greenback lower. Later on Wednesday, the US ADP Employment Change will be released, along with the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) and the flash Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report.Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that US job openings fell to 7.19 million in March, the lowest since September 2024, compared to a revised 7.48 million in February. This figure came in below the market consensus of 7.5 million. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined to 86.0 in April from 93.9 in March (revised from 92.9). This figure registered the lowest level since April 2020.The weaker labor demand and sentiment data in the US increased concerns about economic momentum amid increased uncertainty, which undermined the Greenback and created a tailwind for GBP/USD. On the other hand, the rising bets that the Bank of England (BoE) will reduce interest rates in the May policy meeting might cap the upside for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Financial markets have priced in nearly a 96% odds that the BoE cut its rate by a quarter-point to 4.25% when it announces its next move on May 8.BoE policymaker Megan Greene said last week that US President Donald Trump's tariffs would probably lead to lower rather than higher inflation in the UK, but big uncertainties remained about the plan and the impact of a recent UK tax hike for employers. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the decline to near $3,315 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal edges lower amid easing trade tensions and better risk sentiment in global markets.

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The precious metal edges lower amid easing trade tensions and better risk sentiment in global markets. Traders will keep an eye on the US ADP Employment Change, Personal Consumption ExpendituresPrice Index (PCE) and the flash Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports, which are due later on Wednesday. US President Donald Trump plans to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs by preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking with other tariffs and easing levies on foreign parts used in car manufacturing, officials said. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that key trade partners have made "very good" offers to avoid US tariffs. Additionally, recent moves to exempt certain US goods from retaliatory tariffs demonstrate a willingness to de-escalate trade tensions. Easing trade tensions has reduced demand for gold, a traditional safe-haven asset. "The easing came amid the US opening tariff talks with multiple nations and growing expectations of a possible China-US trade agreement according to US President Donald Trump. Additionally, optimism around a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal further weighed on safe-haven demand for gold," said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.Investors await a slew of important US economic data this week for fresh impetus. The US ADP Employment Change, Personal Consumption ExpendituresPrice Index (PCE), and the flash Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports will be published later on Wednesday. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US April employment report. The expectation for April is that the US economy will add 130,000 jobs and the Unemployment Rate will remain at 4.2%. If the reports show a weaker-than-expected outcome, this could drag the Greenback lower and boost the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
 

 

Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM): -1.2% (March) vs previous 0.5%

Japan Large Retailer Sales increased to 3% in March from previous 2%

Japan Retail Trade (YoY) below forecasts (3.5%) in March: Actual (3.1%)

Japan Industrial Production (YoY) declined to -0.3% in March from previous 0.1%

Japan Industrial Production (MoM) registered at -1.1%, below expectations (-0.4%) in March

The EUR/USD pair gains ground to near 1.1390 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower against the Euro (EUR) due to softer-than-expected US economic data.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD trades in positive territory around 1.1390 in Wednesday’s early Asian session. US job openings fell to 7.19 million in March, the lowest since September 2024. Traders brace for the German Retail Sales, CPI, and GDP data, followed by the US PCE report, which is due on Wednesday. The EUR/USD pair gains ground to near 1.1390 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower against the Euro (EUR) due to softer-than-expected US economic data. The German economic data and US Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (PCE) report for March will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday. US job openings fell last month to the lowest since September 2024, indicating weaker labor demand amid increased economic uncertainty, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. The figure declined to 7.19 million in March from a revised 7.48 million in February, below the market consensus of 7.5 million.Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 86.0 in April from the previous reading of 93.9 (revised from 92.9), its lowest reading since April 2020. This report suggested the weakening of the US economy. The chance of a rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) jumped to 56.8% after weaker-than-expected labor and sentiment data increased concerns about economic momentum. This, in turn, has dragged the Greenback lower and acts as a tailwind for the major pair.Traders will closely watch the release of Retail Sales, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the advanced estimate of Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from Germany. Also, the preliminary Q1 GDP Growth Rate for the Eurozone will be released on the same day. If the reports show a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the shared currency in the near term. currency in the near term.  Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) dipped from previous 7% to 5.3% in March

South Korea Service Sector Output down to -0.3% in March from previous 0.5%

South Korea Industrial Output Growth rose from previous 1% to 2.9% in March

The Mexican Peso (MXN) appreciated against the US Dollar (USD) after touching a daily low of 19.65, as risk appetite improved following the release of softer-than-expected data. At the time of writing, USD/MXN trades at 19.56, down 0.12%.

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At the time of writing, USD/MXN trades at 19.56, down 0.12%.Wall Street closed with gains, depicting an upbeat market mood and appetite for risk-sensitive currencies like the Peso. The Wall Street Journal revealed that US President Donald Trump might soften the impact of automotive tariffs. Traders cheered this and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's comments about a trade deal pending approval, which, according to the WSJ, could be with India or South Korea.In the US, the agenda featured the US Job Labor and Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for March, which was dismal and missed estimates. At the same time, US Consumer Confidence deteriorated in April, with households growing pessimistic about future expectations on the economy.In Mexico, the economic docket was absent on Tuesday as traders await the release of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the first quarter of 2025. On the US as well, USD/MXN traders are eyeing the release of GDP figures for the first quarter and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso edges up awaiting GDP dataMexico’s economic data revealed on Monday showed that the Balance of Trade printed a surplus and that labor market conditions remain solid as the Unemployment Rate ticked lower in March compared to FebruaryEconomic data revealed last week showcasing the ongoing economic slowdown as Retail Sales in February missed estimates. However, not all has been said, as traders await GDP for Q1.The latest inflation report showed that prices edged up in the first half of April, revealed INEGI.Last week, Banxico’s Deputy Governor Omar Mejia Castelazo revealed that the economy has been undergoing a slowdown since Q4 2023, he said in Washington.According to Citi Mexico's expectations survey, Mexico’s economy is expected to grow 0.2% in 2025, below the 0.3% projected in the prior survey.The US Department of Labor reported that JOLTS job openings dropped to 7.192 million in March, the lowest since September, missing the 7.5 million forecast and down from 7.48 million previously, pointing to softening labor demand.Similarly, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 86.0 in April, its lowest in nearly five years, down from 93.9 and below the 87.5 estimate, highlighting growing consumer pessimism.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso remains bullish as USD/MXN stays below 200-day SMAUSD/MXN remains downward biased after breaking below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.94, fueling the drop toward yearly lows at 19.46. Sellers remain in control, but a daily close below 19.46 is needed to open the door for a test of the 19.00 psychological level.On the flip side, a move back above the 200-day SMA could allow buyers to retake momentum, targeting 20.00 initially, followed by the 20-day SMA at 20.15 if momentum builds. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

The USD/JPY pair is trading around the 142.00 handle during the North American session on Tuesday. The pair saw some upward movement as the US Dollar (USD) steadied following the release of softer-than-expected US JOLTS Job Openings data and a sharp drop in Consumer Confidence.

USD/JPY trades in the mid-142.00 area after mixed US economic data and cautious trade comments.Weaker US JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence figures contrast with ongoing US-China trade uncertainty.Technical indicators suggest a bearish bias with key SMAs pointing lower, while immediate support and resistance levels are in focus.The USD/JPY pair is trading around the 142.00 handle during the North American session on Tuesday. The pair saw some upward movement as the US Dollar (USD) steadied following the release of softer-than-expected US JOLTS Job Openings data and a sharp drop in Consumer Confidence. However, gains remain limited due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade negotiations, particularly with China.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced a notable surge of over 300 points, or 0.80%, as weaker US economic data hinted at potential future interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in US Treasury yields. Despite this positive sentiment in the equity markets, comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding the lack of imminent trade deals and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt's remarks about Amazon's potential tariff disclosures injected a note of caution into the broader market.On the data front, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Job Openings for March fell to 7.19 million, below the expected 7.5 million and the previous reading of 7.48 million. This marked the lowest level since September, indicating a cooling in labor demand. Adding to the downbeat economic picture, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index plummeted to 86.0 in April, its lowest in nearly five years, significantly missing the forecast of 87.5 and the previous month's 93.9. This drop signals increasing pessimism among US consumers.Despite the weaker data, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that President Donald Trump is employing "strategic uncertainty" in trade negotiations. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened across the board, underperforming even other safe-haven currencies, as investors anticipate soft domestic economic releases and upcoming US-Japan trade discussions. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to maintain its current monetary policy, leaving the JPY susceptible to external factors and policy inaction, according to Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne. The BoJ's interest rate decision is scheduled for Thursday.USD/JPY Technical AnalysisFrom a technical analysis perspective, the USD/JPY pair is showing bearish signals. Currently trading around 142.00, the pair has registered a slight gain of approximately 0.22% on the day but remains within a range defined by 141.96 and 142.76. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40.03 offers a neutral outlook and the MACD indicates a potential buy signal, the overall trend appears bearish. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 144.03, the 100-day SMA at 151.16, and the 200-day SMA at 149.95 all suggest selling pressure. The Stochastic RSI Fast at 77.40 and the Bull Bear Power indicator at -1.59 are both neutral. Furthermore, the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 142.80 and the 30-day EMA at 145.13 also point towards a sell signal. Immediate support is identified around 142.26, while resistance levels are clustered at 142.80, 142.87, and 144.02.Daily Chart

In the lead-up to Tuesday's Asian trading session, EUR/JPY has seen a minor decline, trading near the 162.00 mark. Despite a sell signal from one momentum indicator, the broader technical landscape suggests underlying bullish strength, supported by several key moving averages.

EUR/JPY was observed trading around the 162.00 region, experiencing a slight pullback on the day.The overall technical analysis points towards a prevailing bullish sentiment for the currency pair.Key Simple Moving Averages indicate buying interest, while the Relative Strength Index is neutral, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence suggests selling pressure.In the lead-up to Tuesday's Asian trading session, EUR/JPY has seen a minor decline, trading near the 162.00 mark. Despite a sell signal from one momentum indicator, the broader technical landscape suggests underlying bullish strength, supported by several key moving averages.The EUR/JPY pair currently displays a bullish technical outlook. While the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is showing a sell signal, potentially indicating some short-term downward pressure, the longer-term trend appears positive. The Relative Strength Index resides in neutral territory around the 52 level, not providing a strong directional cue. However, the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages are all signaling buy opportunities, underscoring sustained bullish momentum across various time horizons. Similarly, the 30-day Exponential Moving Average and Simple Moving Average also support this upward trajectory. The Stochastic %K and Stochastic RSI Fast are both currently neutral.Considering potential trading levels, immediate support is identified at 162.01, followed by 161.97 and then a lower level at 161.92. On the resistance side, the first barrier is at 162.17, with subsequent resistance levels at 162.22 and 162.68.Daily Chart

Australia will release multiple inflation figures on Wednesday and financial markets anticipate price pressures easing further at the beginning of 2025, paving the way for additional Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate cuts.

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.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian monthly Consumer Price Index is foreseen at 2.3% in March. Quarterly CPI inflation expected to ease further below 3%, with core figures meeting RBA’s goal.The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet in mid-May to decide on monetary policy.The Australian Dollar eases vs its American rival after reaching a fresh 2025 high.Australia will release multiple inflation figures on Wednesday and financial markets anticipate price pressures easing further at the beginning of 2025, paving the way for additional Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate cuts. The central bank is meant to meet to decide on monetary policy on May 19-20. Back to data, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will publish two different inflation gauges: the quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first quarter of 2025 and the March monthly CPI, which measures annual price pressures over the past twelve months. The quarterly report includes the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI, policymakers’ favorite inflation gauge. The RBA has maintained the Official Cash Rate (OCR) on hold at 4.10% when it met early April, after delivering a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in February, the first one after the hiking cycle that began in 2022. What to expect from Australia’s inflation rate numbers?The ABS is expected to report that the monthly CPI rose by 2.3% in the year to March, easing from the 2.4% posted in February. The quarterly CPI is foreseen to increase by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and by 2.2% year-on-year (YoY) in the first quarter of 2025. Additionally, the central bank’s preferred gauge, the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI, is expected to rise by 2.9% YoY in Q4, easing from the 3.2% advance posted in the previous quarter.Finally, the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI is forecast to increase by 0.7% QoQ, higher than the 0.5% previously posted. Still, the figures will fall within the RBA’s goal to keep inflation between 2 and 3%, which means the central bank could deliver additional interest rate cuts in the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, economic activity in the country, as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), picked up modestly in the last quarter of 2025, with GDP growing by 0.6% in real terms, surpassing the market expectations of 0.5% and marking the strongest performance since December 2022. The annual growth rate of 1.3% also exceeded the consensus forecast of 1.2%. The modest advance spooked the ghost of recession, albeit the economy is not yet out of the woods. Finally, it's worth adding that Australia’s GDP growth is projected to reach approximately 2.2% in 2025, according to the most recent forecasts from the RBA. Beyond the central banks’ inflation goal, tepid growth has been part of policymakers’ decision to trim interest rates, to help avoid a steeper economic setback. Meanwhile, the United States (US) President Donald Trump started a global trade war. After announcing tariffs on neighbouring countries, Trump launched “reciprocal tariffs” on most trading partners. Australia fell into the 10% baseline levy while facing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium exports into the US. However, most tensions lay between China and the US, with tariffs in the hundreds. China is Australia's major trading partner, and the local economy may suffer the echoes of tensions between the world’s largest economies.Additionally, concerns related to the trade war's impact on the US economy keep the US Dollar (USD) on the back foot. The USD fell to fresh 2025 lows against most major rivals in April and retains its soft tone regardless of the market’s sentiment. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock noted, “If there are large tariffs on China, Chinese trade will probably try to find other ways to find an outlet. Australia might even be a beneficiary of that. So we might, in fact, find some deflationary impacts for Australia if it rolls out that way.” How could the Consumer Price Index report affect AUD/USD?Inflation figures are, as usual, crucial. Easing inflationary pressures should fuel bets on an RBA rate cut in May.Generally speaking, higher CPI figures would be bullish for the AUD amid expectations of a hawkish RBA. However, the opposite scenario is also valid: easing inflation could push policymakers towards a more dovish stance. Heading into the CPI release, the AUD/USD pair trades around the 0.6400 mark, retreating from a fresh yearly high of 0.6450. Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, says: “The AUD/USD pair is consolidating gains and despite intraday back and forth, the bullish case remains firm in place. Technical readings in the daily chart suggest the pair may correct lower, as technical indicators ease from their recent peaks near overbought readings. Still, the case for a bearish breakout remains far away.”Bednarik adds: “The AUD/USD pair should find initial near-term support in the 0.6340 region, with further slides exposing the 0.6280 price zone, where a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) converges with a flat 100 SMA. It would take a break below this area to anticipate a steeper slide towards the 0.6200 mark. A bullish extension beyond the year high should result in AUD/USD testing sellers’ determination around the 0.6500 figure.” Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative. Economic Indicator Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY) The Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The indicator was developed to provide inflation data at a higher frequency than the quarterly CPI. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 30, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: - Previous: 2.4% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

The AUD/NZD has experienced some downward pressure, hovering near the 1.07 zone on Tuesday. Despite mixed signals from some momentum indicators, the longer-term technical picture appears to favor the bears, with several moving averages reinforcing this sentiment.

AUD/NZD was seen trading around the 1.07 area, registering a slight decline on the day.The overall technical outlook suggests a bearish bias for the currency pair.Key Simple Moving Averages point to selling pressure, while the Relative Strength Index remains neutral, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence shows a buy signal.The AUD/NZD has experienced some downward pressure, hovering near the 1.07 zone on Tuesday. Despite mixed signals from some momentum indicators, the longer-term technical picture appears to favor the bears, with several moving averages reinforcing this sentiment.The AUD/NZD pair is currently exhibiting a bearish technical bias. While the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is flashing a buy signal, suggesting potential short-term upward momentum, the broader context leans negative. The Relative Strength Index sits in neutral territory around the 42 level, offering little directional conviction at present. However, both the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages are indicating sell positions, highlighting sustained bearish momentum over different timeframes. Similarly, the 30-day Exponential Moving Average and Simple Moving Average also point towards further declines.Looking at potential price movements, immediate support is observed at 1.0746, followed by 1.0739 and then a lower level at 1.0717. On the upside, initial resistance can be found at 1.0774, with subsequent resistance levels at 1.0781 and 1.0786.Daily chart
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