Forex News Timeline

Saturday, July 12, 2025

EUR/USD finished the week with losses of over 0.70% and ended Friday’s session down 0.10% trading below the 1.1700 figure, cementing the case for a pullback to test key support levels as the Greenback posts its best week in four months. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1688.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD posts first weekly loss in three weeks, ending at 1.1688.Trump eyes blanket tariffs, including on EU and copper exports.Dollar marks strongest week since March amid broad risk-off tone.EUR/USD finished the week with losses of over 0.70% and ended Friday’s session down 0.10% trading below the 1.1700 figure, cementing the case for a pullback to test key support levels as the Greenback posts its best week in four months. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1688.A risk-off mood was triggered by US President Donald Trump, who remains focused in broadening tariffs to countries but also to commodities like copper. News emerged that he could be imposing blanket tariffs and that his sights are set on a letter to the European Union (EU), which posts its first weekly loss in the last three weeks.A light economic docket on both sides of the Atlantic featured media appearances of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, alongside Wholesale Prices data for June, revealed in Germany.Daily digest market movers: Euro pressured as Trump threats to sent EU’s tariff letterThe Euro was on the defensive as news reports revealed Trump’s intention to send a letter to the EU. In addition to this, he enacted 35% tariffs on Canada, and it is reported that he is eyeing blanket tariffs of 15% to 20%, signaling an escalation of the trade war.Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (voter in 2025) said that the new round of tariffs makes it messy to reveal the true economic performance. He said that tariffs could delay rate cuts and that he wants to wait until the anxiety dies down before being comfortable that the US is back on track to a soft landing.Across the pond, European Central Bank (ECB) officials revealed mixed stances on monetary policy. Schnabel was hawkish, stating that "the bar for another rate cut is very high" and dismissing the need for further easing unless inflation materially deviates from the ECB’s 2% target over the medium term — something she currently sees no evidence of.ECB Fabio Panetta was slightly dovish, noting that if the downside risks to growth intensified and reinforced disinflationary pressures, it could require further monetary easing.Wholesale Prices in Germany rose by 0.2% MoM in June as expected, crushing May´s -0.3% fall. Yearly, Prices jumped from 0.4% to 0.9% for the same period.Euro technical outlook: EUR/USD tumbles below 1.1700 as sellers eye 1.1500The EUR/USD cracked below the 1.1700 figure yet it remains on top of the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 1.1662. Although it bounced to current price levels, the pair staying below 1.1700, paves the way for further downside.The first support would be the 20-day SMA. Once surpassed, the next stop would be 1.1650, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1464. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Copper futures are trading near $5.50 per pound on Friday, slipping from Tuesday’s high of $5.70 on the daily timeframe.

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Despite the modest decline, prices remain 10% higher than Monday’s close, underscoring persistent concerns over supply disruptions tied to incoming United States (US) trade tariffs.The 50% tariff on Copper imports, announced on Wednesday and set to take effect on August 1, is aimed at consolidating the US Copper industry and reducing reliance on imported refined products. The tariff announcement has driven the premium between US Copper futures and London Metal Exchange (LME) prices to a record 25%, as foreign benchmarks weakened and US prices surged. This divergence reflected market expectations that Copper inflows into the US would slow after threats initially emerged in February.Traders accelerated shipments in recent months to get ahead of the August enforcement window. The front-loading of imports temporarily increased US stockpiles but is now expected to fade, potentially leading to domestic shortages later this quarter.According to a Reuters report on Thursday, the United States imports nearly 50% of its Copper consumption, with Chile accounting for the bulk of refined Copper shipments. Analysts warn that the US lacks sufficient refining infrastructure to absorb the supply gap. New capacity could take years to develop, suggesting that downstream industries, particularly construction and electronics, may face rising input costs and delivery lags.The daily chart below shows Copper trading within a long-term ascending channel, with strong volume supporting the recent breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased from overbought levels but remains elevated, signaling continued bullish bias.Immediate support lies at $5.03, followed by deeper support at $4.62 (78.6% Fib) and $4.29 (61.8% Fib), where prior consolidation zones could act as buffers in the event of a pullback.As the August 1 deadline approaches, Copper markets are likely to remain volatile. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
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