Forex News Timeline

22:03 Forex Today: Powell takes centre stage amid escalating Middle East jitters
The Greenback regained strong downside traction and dropped to four-day lows in response to dovish Fedspeak and despite solid safe-haven demand in light of the deterioration of the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.

The Greenback regained strong downside traction and dropped to four-day lows in response to dovish Fedspeak and despite solid safe-haven demand in light of the deterioration of the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. Meanwhile, investors geared up for Chair Powell’s semiannual testimonies and the release of the always-relevant US Consumer Confidence.Here's what to watch on Tuesday, June 24:The US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated for the third consecutive day, receding to the 98.40 zone amid a generalised pullback in US yields. Chief Powell will testify before the US House Financial Services Committee, seconded by speeches from Hammack, Collins and Barr. On the docket, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence gauge will be in the spotlight, followed by the FHFA’s House Price Index, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles.EUR/USD advanced to four-day peaks amid an intense risk-off sentiment and renewed weakness in the Greenback. The German IFO Business Climate will be the salient event on the domestic calendar, alongside speeches by the ECB’s De Guindos, Lagarde and Lane.GBP/USD dipped to three-week lows near 1.3370 before staging a sharp rebound to multi-day tops near 1.3530 on the back of the resurgence of the strong selling bias in the US Dollar. The CBI Industrial Trends Orders is due seconded by speeches by the BoE’s Bailey, Ramsden, Greene, and Breeden.USD/JPY rose sharply and hit new six-week highs just above the 148.00 barrier, just to come all the way down and settle near 146.00 following the pronounced retracement in the Greenback. The BoJ Summary of Opinions is due, ahead of the final prints of the Coincident and Leading Economic Indices. In addition, the BoJ’s Tamura is due to speak. AUD/USD reversed an initial drop to the sub-0.6400 region and managed to retest the 0.6450 zone toward the end of the day. Next on tap in Oz will be the release of the RBA’s Monthly CPI Indicator on June 25.Prices of WTI collapsed more than 7% and receded to the vicinity iof the $68.00 mark per barrel after Iranian retaliatory attacks targeted US military bases in the UAE.Gold maintains its bullish bias on Monday, trading at shouting distance from the key $3,400 mark per troy ounce on the back of increasing geopolitical tensions after Iran attacked regional US military bases. Silver prices alternated gains with losses in the low $36.00s per ounce.

22:00 Argentina Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 5.8%, below expectations (6.1%) in 1Q
Argentina Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 5.8%, below expectations (6.1%) in 1Q

21:56 AUD/USD stabilizes above 200-day SMA as Iran strike contained, Powell testimony in focus
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is holding steady against the United States Dollar (USD) on Monday after markets absorbed fresh geopolitical tensions involving Iran. Risk sentiment briefly deteriorated following Tehran’s missile launch toward United States military bases in Qatar.

21:41 Dow Jones Industrial Average roils as investors brace for rising Middle East tensions
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) whipsawed on Monday, churning as investors reacted to headlines that Iran had lashed out at US military assets in the Middle East in retaliation for the weekend’s missile strikes ordered by the Trump administration.

21:28 Gold surges as Iran strikes US bases, Israel intensifies Tehran assault
Gold prices remain bid during the North American session as breaking news revealed Iran’s attack on US bases in Qatar, in retaliation for the over-the-weekend attack on Iran's nuclear installations by the White House.

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Meanwhile, US economic data was overlooked mainly as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,385, up 0.39%.Macroeconomic data has been pushed aside as geopolitics grabs most headlines. Iran reported the launch of missiles at US bases in Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq, according to Al Arabiya, citing Israeli media. Alongside this, Iran retaliated, approving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and launching missile strikes against Israel.Meanwhile, Israel attacked Evin prison in northern Tehran, which, according to Reuters, “Israel called its most intense bombing yet of the Iranian capital a day after the United States joined the war.”Bullion prices printed another leg up, as Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman added to the doves' chorus, saying that she’s open to reducing interest rates at the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, if inflation pressures remained contained.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, drops 0.25% to 98.52. US Treasury bond yields are also on the back foot, a tailwind for Gold prices.On the data front, S&P Global revealed that manufacturing activity expanded above estimates but has stalled for the last two months. In the services sector, businesses remain growing at a healthy pace, though June’s print dipped compared to May figures.The economic docket in the US will feature further Fed speakers, led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony at the US Congress on Tuesday. Traders would digest the latest Consumer Confidence figures, Durable Goods Orders, housing and jobs data, along with the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.Daily digest market movers: Gold price rally extends, as Iran retaliates over US basesOn Saturday, the United States (US) delivered an attack to three of Iran’s nuclear facilities – Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. US President Donald Trump described the mission as “a very successful attack,” and warned that “there are many other targets” if Iran remains reluctant to peace talks.The US Operation Midnight Hammer involved B-2 Spirit bombers and Tomahawk missiles from US submarines.Recently, the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June came in at 52, above expectations of 51 but unchanged compared to the previous reading. The Services PMI dipped from 53.7 to 53.1 in June, a tick above estimates of 52.9.The US 10-year Treasury note yield is down seven basis points (bps) at 4.306%. US real yields, which are inversely correlated with Gold prices, followed suit, down at 1.978%.The Fed's monetary policy report recently revealed that there are early signs that tariffs are contributing to higher inflation. However, their full impact has yet to be reflected in the data. The report added that the current policy is well-positioned and that financial stability is resilient amid high uncertainty.Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 57.5 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data.Source: Prime Market TerminalXAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price climbs towards $3,400Rising geopolitical tensions sparked an uptrend in Gold prices, with the yellow metal bouncing off daily lows beneath $3,350, but buyers failed to crack the $3,400 figure. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) favors dip buyers with the RSI remaining bullish.For a bullish resumption, XAU/USD must clear $3,400. Once hurdled, the following key resistance levels, such as the $3,450 mark and the record high of $3,500, lie ahead.Conversely, if Gold tumbles below $3,350, the pullback could extend toward the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,315. Further losses are seen once cleared, at the April 3 high-turned-support at $3,167. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

21:27 USD/JPY pulls back below 147.00 as US Dollar softens on mixed PMI, Fed Bowman remarks
The Japanese Yen (JPY) reverses its decline from a five-week low, strengthening against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as the Greenback loses ground after mixed US PMI data and dovish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Bowman.

USD/JPY trims early gains after failing to hold above the 100-day MA near 148.00.Japanese Yen draws safe-haven demand following reports of Iran’s attack on US airbases in Qatar.US Dollar Index drops below 99.00 as mixed PMI data and Bowman’s dovish comments weigh.The Japanese Yen (JPY) reverses its decline from a five-week low, strengthening against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as the Greenback loses ground after mixed US PMI data and dovish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Bowman. Reports that Iran attacked US airbases in Qatar sparked broad safe-haven flows, but traders favored the Yen over the US Dollar, reining in USD/JPY gains after a technical breakout.The USD/JPY pair started the week on a firm footing, initially extending last week’s breakout momentum to hit an intraday high of 148.03. However, the pair failed to sustain gains above its 100-day Simple Moving Average, triggering a pullback toward 146.20 at the time of writing during the American trading hours.Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, slipped back below the key 99.00 mark amid the mixed PMI prints and dovish Fed signals. At the time of writing, the index was last seen around 98.50, underscoring the recent cooling in broad US Dollar demand despite lingering geopolitical tensions.Fresh US PMI data provided a mixed signal for the US Dollar, with manufacturing activity expanding slightly while the services sector showed signs of slowing. Adding to the softer tone, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman remarked that inflation is steadily moving closer to target and hinted she could back a rate cut as soon as the July meeting if disinflation progress holds steady, boosting market bets on a summer policy shift.From a technical perspective, after staging a decisive breakout above a multi-month descending triangle last week, USD/JPY bulls initially carried the pair to a fresh intraday high of 148.03 in early Monday trade. However, momentum faded as the pair failed to gain traction above the 100-day Moving Average (MA), which remains a critical technical barrier near 147.80–148.00.The rejection at this moving average has triggered a healthy pullback, dragging the pair lower toward 146.20 at the time of writing. Technically, the zone around 144.50–145.00 now stands out as key support. This area aligns with the previous triangle resistance, which may flip into a support floor if bulls defend it successfully — a classic breakout retest scenario.Momentum signals remain constructive but hint at cooling steam in the near term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated modestly toward the mid-50s, staying out of overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to hover in positive territory but shows a flattening histogram — a sign that immediate buying pressure may pause. A clear daily close above 148.00 would unlock scope for a push toward 149.50 and the psychological 150.00 level. Conversely, a break below 145.00 could drag the pair deeper toward the 50-day moving average (MA) near 144.14, putting the breakout narrative at risk and shifting the short-term bias back to neutral.

20:41 EUR/JPY hits fresh 11-month peak amid mixed Eurozone data and soft Yen
The Euro (EUR) advances against the Japanese Yen (JPY) for a third consecutive day on Monday, hitting its highest level in nearly eleven months, as steady Euro demand and a persistently weak Yen fuel fresh buying.

EUR/JPY extends winning streak, touches highest level since July 2024.Eurozone PMI data indicate a fragile but stable recovery, with services rebounding slightly and manufacturing remaining weak.ECB’s Lagarde calls for faster rollout of digital euro; Nagel signals bond-buying only for emergencies.The Euro (EUR) advances against the Japanese Yen (JPY) for a third consecutive day on Monday, hitting its highest level in nearly eleven months, as steady Euro demand and a persistently weak Yen fuel fresh buying. Traders are betting that the European Central Bank (ECB) will be cautious about easing rates too quickly, while the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) commitment to loose monetary policy continues to drag on the Yen, keeping EUR/JPY on a firm upward path.The EUR/JPY cross is edging higher, trading just shy of the intraday peak of 169.72. At the time of writing, the pair is hovering near 169.21, up roughly 0.53% on the day, with technical momentum staying supportive for further gains.Fresh data on Monday showed the Eurozone economy remains on a fragile recovery path. The HCOB Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) held steady at 50.2 in June, slightly missing forecasts of 50.5. The services sector showed a mild improvement, with the Services PMI rising to 50.0 from 49.7, indicating a stabilization in activity after recent softness. However, manufacturing continues to struggle, with the Manufacturing PMI unchanged at 49.4, undershooting expectations of 49.8 and signaling a persistent drag on the region’s growth outlook.Meanwhile, Japan’s latest numbers offered a brighter tone. The au Jibun Bank Japan Composite PMI rose to 51.4 in June from 50.2 previously, while the Manufacturing PMI climbed back into expansion territory at 50.4 — the first positive reading for the sector in over a year and beating market forecasts. The Services PMI also edged up to 51.5 from 51.0, indicating steady growth in the services sector of the economy.Adding to the Euro’s support, ECB President Christine Lagarde on Monday urged EU lawmakers to push ahead with legislation for a digital euro, calling it vital for Europe’s financial sovereignty. Separately, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel emphasized that large-scale bond buying should be reserved for rare emergencies, underlining that interest rates will remain the primary policy tool. This reinforces the view that the ECB will avoid excessive stimulus, keeping the Euro well bid against the Yen.On the other hand, the Bank of Japan kept its key rate unchanged last week and outlined a gradual plan to taper its bond purchases over the next two years. Governor Ueda reiterated that any further tightening will depend on inflation sustainably hitting target levels, signaling that policy will remain relatively accommodative compared to other major central banks. This policy gap continues to weigh on the Yen and keeps EUR/JPY biased to the upside.

20:29 Fed's Goolsbee: Unclear how tariffs will drive inflation
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee admitted that tariff effects have remained far below what many policymakers initially feared, but expressed caution that the Fed still needs to watch "soft" data carefully to avoid getting caught in a crossfire between interest rates an

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee admitted that tariff effects have remained far below what many policymakers initially feared, but expressed caution that the Fed still needs to watch "soft" data carefully to avoid getting caught in a crossfire between interest rates and inflation.Key highlightsCritical to look at soft economic data at current moment of transition.

Tariffs are not unlike oil shocks with stagflationary implications.

Current form of uncertainty is disconcerting for economy.

Thus far, impact of tariffs not as bad as feared.

Tariff impact blunted by lowered levels, exemptions.

Less immediate pass through of tariffs relative to past.

Unclear right now how tariffs will drive inflation.

The surprise so far is that inflation has jumped yet on tariffs.

If we do not see inflation jump on tariffs, then economy still on golden path.

20:22 WTI Crude Oil plunges as Iran reportedly fires missiles at US bases in Qatar
WTI Crude Oil saw sharp intraday volatility on Monday, jumping to its highest level since January before reversing all its gains.

19:54 Dow Jones and other indexes pull back following reported Iran attack against US forces
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) pulled back from Monday's early gains after news outlets reported that accelerating Middle East conflicts took a turn early this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) pulled back from Monday's early gains after news outlets reported that accelerating Middle East conflicts took a turn early this week. According to early reporting, Iranian militants have launched a rocket strike targeting the Al-Asad Airbase, which is jointly operated by the US Air Force and the Iraqi Air Force.Iran is poised to lash out at US military assets in retaliation for US President Donald Trump ordering targeted missile strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities without congressional approval over the weekend. The action by the Trump administration marks a sharp reversal in Trump's campaign promises to avoid getting the US embroiled in foreign conflicts.

18:54 GBP/USD rebounds to 1.3500 as Fed’s Bowman backs July cut, Iran tensions flare
The Pound Sterling advances during the North American session, up 0.37% against the US Dollar, as risk appetite improved amid developments in the Middle East. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3500.

18:52 Dollar Index softens as markets weigh US-Iran tensions and Fed rate outlook
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is edging lower after a strong start on Monday as markets monitor the risks of an Iranian retaliation against the United States (US) and look ahead to Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming testimony on Tuesday.

17:39 AUD/USD bounces off monthly low, holds firm above 0.6400 after mixed US PMI prints
The Australian Dollar (AUD) reverses earlier losses and edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as traders reassess safe-haven flows after the United States (US) launched attacks on Israel over the weekend.

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The initial rush into the Greenback pushed the Aussie to a one-month low before a mixed batch of US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data helped temper US Dollar demand.AUD/USD is currently trading around 0.6452 at the time of writing, during the American session, having erased most of its intraday losses and now down approximately 0.38% on the day. The pair rebounded strongly from a session low of 0.6372, finding a tailwind as the latest US PMIs failed to deliver a decisive boost to the US Dollar.US data painted a slightly softer tone, the S&P Global Composite x PMI slipped to 52.8 in June from 53 in May, hinting at a mild loss of momentum while still marking over two years of expansion. The Manufacturing PMI held steady at 52, in line with May’s 15-month high and beating forecasts, while the Services PMI dipped to 53.1 from 53.7 but remained above market expectations. Overall, the mixed readings cooled fresh buying interest in the US Dollar, giving AUD/USD room to bounce.Meanwhile, earlier in the day, S&P Global figures showed Australia’s private sector growing at its second-fastest pace in ten months, with services activity hitting a three-month high and manufacturing holding steady. The encouraging PMI print offered a measure of relief for the Aussie, providing some reassurance after recent soft economic releases had revived talk of possible rate cuts.Technically, the pair’s strong recovery from the lower edge of its tight range suggests buyers are defending key support near 0.6400, reinforced by the 100-day Moving Average around 0.6362. The RSI has turned higher toward the midline, and the MACD shows early signs of stabilization. A daily close above 0.6450 could open the door for a push back toward the 0.6500–0.6550 area, keeping the range-trading strategies alive. A failure to hold above 0.6400, however, would re-expose the downside toward 0.6300. Economic Indicator S&P Global Composite PMI The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in Australia for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the Australian private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for AUD. Read more. Last release: Sun Jun 22, 2025 23:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: 51.2 Consensus: - Previous: 50.5 Source: S&P Global

17:29 Fed’s Bowman: Open to cutting rates as soon as July
FOMC Governor Michelle Bowman indicated that if inflation pressures stay contained, she would be in favour of lowering the policy rate at the next meeting to align it more closely with its neutral setting and maintain a healthy labour market.

FOMC Governor Michelle Bowman indicated that if inflation pressures stay contained, she would be in favour of lowering the policy rate at the next meeting to align it more closely with its neutral setting and maintain a healthy labour market. Key Quotes Open to cutting rates as soon as the July FOMC meeting if inflation pressures stay contained. Should put more weight on downside risks to the job market going forward. It is time to consider adjusting the policy rate. Trade policy only likely to have ‘minimal impacts’ on inflation. Data not showing much impact from trade policy shifts. Government policy changes should lower inflation risks. Tariffs are likely to have a small impact on inflation. Progress on trade has lowered uncertainty over the outlook. Current Middle East strife could pressure up commodity prices. Labour market solid, but signs of softness emerging.

17:10 Copper risk returns – TDS
LME Copper convenience yields are now reflecting critically low inventories, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

LME Copper convenience yields are now reflecting critically low inventories, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Copper's tension builds"Metal has flowed out of the system over the last months, reflecting increased competition for physical Copper from both China and the United States.""We highlighted that metal must make its way back into the system to prevent fears of a stock-out from reemerging, and while tom-next is now trading close to the LME's capped rate, interestingly, the largest traders in Shanghai have increasingly sold their Copper positions concurrently with a decline in Chinese premiums." "Shanghai Copper traders also remained on the offer in the overnight session, with selling activity now totalling 84.5kt of notional Copper month-to-date. In this context, it is notable that deliveries into the system have remained scarce. Nonetheless, for the time being, CTA buying activity could further exacerbate pressure on LME flat prices and curve."

17:05 Gold shines amid fiscal fog and geopolitical shadows – TDS
What if the largest threat to global markets is not an oil price shock, but a prolonged conflict leading to a deeper US involvement in the war effort, with ultimate implications for defense spend and thereby for the fiscal outlook, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

What if the largest threat to global markets is not an oil price shock, but a prolonged conflict leading to a deeper US involvement in the war effort, with ultimate implications for defense spend and thereby for the fiscal outlook, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Markets face deeper risk from US war involvement"Gold remains the lowest-risk expression of a MidEast geopolitics hedge." "The optionality for further price increases now appears excessively cheap with potential catalysts ranging from safe-haven inflows tied to further geopolitical escalation, resumed interest rate cuts in the event of a complete about-face on trade, a stagflationary environment in the event of a continued trade war, challenges to central bank credibility with Chair Powell's term coming to an end within a year or resumed Asian currency depreciation pressures." "We see echoes of January 2024, even as Gold prices remain only a nudge below all-time highs."

17:00 United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) registered at 4.03M above expectations (3.96M) in May
United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) registered at 4.03M above expectations (3.96M) in May

17:00 United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) registered at 0.8% above expectations (-1.3%) in May
United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) registered at 0.8% above expectations (-1.3%) in May

17:00 United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) below forecasts (3.96M) in May: Actual (0.8M)
United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) below forecasts (3.96M) in May: Actual (0.8M)

16:58 Oil prices rich despite no supply disruption – TDS
Analyzing Risk of Disruptions to Strategic Chokepoints in the Middle East suggested crude oil pricing screened rich to historical analogs in the overnight session, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Analyzing Risk of Disruptions to Strategic Chokepoints in the Middle East suggested crude oil pricing screened rich to historical analogs in the overnight session, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Strait of Hormuz still open, risk premium overstated"Recall that zero barrels have been disrupted, hinting at a strategic decision to avoid damaging global energy supply. Current prices are consistent with our analysis of three quarter-centuries of geopolitical risk premiums in oil markets." "For as long as Iranian energy exports are flowing freely, incentives to block the Strait of Hormuz are akin to a mutually assured economic destruction, inferring little incentive to do so." "Even further, more barrels are flowing out of Iran as a result of Israeli strikes on domestic consumption, and US shale producers hedging at higher prices will likely lower the floor price for crude if the status-quo prevails. CTAs are max long, but will only meaningfully sell below $76.85/bbl."

16:52 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI holds at 52 in June, Services PMI declines to 53.1
The economic activity in the US' private sector continued to expand at a healthy pace in June, with the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index coming in at 52.8 (flash estimate), down slightly from 53 in May.

Business activity in the US private sector continued to expand in June.US Dollar Index clings to modest daily gains above 99.The economic activity in the US' private sector continued to expand at a healthy pace in June, with the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index coming in at 52.8 (flash estimate), down slightly from 53 in May.In the same period, the Manufacturing PMI held steady at 52, while the Services PMI edged lower to 53.1 from 53.7. Both of these prints came in better than analysts' estimates.Assessing the survey's findings, "the June flash PMI data indicated that the US economy continued to grow at the end of the second quarter, but that the outlook remains uncertain while inflationary pressures have risen sharply in the past two months," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.Market reactionThe US Dollar (USD) holds its ground following the PMI data. At the time of press, the USD Index was up 0.35% on the day at 99.10.

16:45 United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above expectations (51) in June: Actual (52)
United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above expectations (51) in June: Actual (52)

16:45 United States S&P Global Services PMI registered at 53.1 above expectations (52.9) in June
United States S&P Global Services PMI registered at 53.1 above expectations (52.9) in June

16:45 United States S&P Global Composite PMI fell from previous 53 to 52.8 in June
United States S&P Global Composite PMI fell from previous 53 to 52.8 in June

16:18 USD/CAD strengthens as Middle East tensions support Greenback
USD/CAD is trading stronger on Monday, holding around 1.3780 after touching an intraday high of 1.3803 earlier in the session.

16:15 US official says Iranian retaliation could come as soon as next day or two – Reuters
Citing two US officials on Monday, Reuters reported that the US assesses a high risk of an Iranian retaliation against the US forces soon and added that the US is still pursuing a diplomatic resolution, per Reuters.

16:07 Lagarde speech: Risks to growth outlook remain tilted to downside
While testifying before the European Parliament on Monday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said that survey data point to some weaker prospects for economic activity in the near term, per Reuters.

16:03 WH Economic Adviser Hassett: No reason for Fed to not cut rates now
Kevin Hassett, Director of the United States (US) National Economic Council (NEC), said on Monday that there is no reason for the Federal Reserve to not cut rates now.

15:58 Indian Rupee weakens amid US–Iran conflict, but strong PMI and moderating Oil price offer support
The Indian Rupee (INR) kicked off the week on a softer note, weakening against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as investors flocked to the Greenback after the United States (US) launched airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend.

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The USD/INR pair is holding its ground, trading around 86.73 at the time of writing during the European session, having touched an intraday high of 86.85 earlier in the day. Despite safe-haven flows favoring the US Dollar as markets await an Iranian response, the Rupee’s downside has been partly cushioned by stronger-than-expected domestic PMI data and a pullback in Crude Oil prices from their early session spike. Traders remain cautious, with the pair consolidating just below the 87.00 mark as markets weigh further geopolitical headlines and global risk sentiment.Heightened geopolitical friction in the Middle East has rattled global markets to start the week after the US reportedly launched airstrikes targeting key Iranian nuclear sites, escalating an already volatile standoff involving Israel and Iran’s regional influence. The latest attacks have amplified concerns about potential retaliatory actions and a broader regional conflict that could disrupt Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for global crude shipments. In response, Crude Oil prices spiked sharply at the weekly open, while investors sought refuge in the US Dollar, lifting it against emerging market currencies, such as the Indian Rupee.India finds itself squarely in the line of fire whenever Oil spikes; any sustained surge in Oil prices is a double-edged sword — it widens the trade deficit, stokes imported inflation, and weakens the Rupee by pressuring the current account balance. On Monday, Brent Crude jumped above $81 per barrel in early Asia, fueling risk-off flows that pushed the INR lower against the Greenback. However, as traders reassessed the risk of immediate supply disruptions, Oil prices cooled back toward $75–77 per barrel, trimming the initial drag on the Indian Rupee. Still, with the risk of escalation hanging in the air, traders are likely to stay cautious, keeping the INR’s recovery attempts on a tight leash.Market movers: Geopolitical fears, resilient domestic data and RBI watchThe Rupee has been under pressure, sliding to its weakest level in three months last week before staging a mild recovery to close at 86.59 on Friday. Despite Monday’s resilience, traders remain wary that a decisive break above the 87.00 mark — a level last seen in March — could spark sharper volatility in the currency market, potentially triggering capital outflows and complicating the inflation outlook. A sustained breach could also force policymakers to reassess their monetary policy stance to manage imported price pressure.The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to step in if the Rupee weakens further toward the key 87.00 per US Dollar mark, according to analysts at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) and MUFG Bank. The Rupee is currently the worst-performing Asian currency this quarter. “The 87 level is very much on the cards if Middle East tensions escalate and the crisis turns regional,” said Dhiraj Nim, currency strategist at ANZ. “That would be tantamount to a shock, and the RBI won’t like that. The RBI won’t be comfortable with anything beyond 87 per Dollar.”India PMI data surprises to the upside: India’s latest PMI figures provided a bright spot amid geopolitical jitters. Flash data showed the HSBC India Composite PMI rose sharply to 61.0 in June 2025 from 59.3 in May, comfortably beating market forecasts of 59.4 and notching its strongest print since April 2024. The Manufacturing PMI also surprised to the upside, climbing to 58.4 from 57.6 a month earlier, marking its highest level in two months and topping expectations of 57.7. Meanwhile, the Services PMI advanced to 60.7 from 58.8, indicating the fastest pace of growth in the sector since August.Global investors remained cautious on Monday amid fresh geopolitical tensions, keeping risk appetite subdued across markets. Most major equity indices in Asia and Europe traded lower but avoided sharp sell-offs. In India, benchmark indices ended in the red, snapping recent momentum as global uncertainty weighed on sentiment. The Sensex closed down 511.38 points, or 0.62%, at 81,896.79, while the Nifty slipped 140.50 points, or 0.56%, to settle just below the psychological 25,000 mark at 24,971.90.Brent and WTI Crude benchmarks jumped to fresh five-month highs early Monday — Brent touched $81.40, WTI hit $78.40 — following US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites that stoked supply disruption fears. However, prices later eased on tempered fears, with Brent drifting back to $75.55 and WTI near $73.25 at the time of writing. The retreat provides some relief for India’s Oil import bill, but risks remain if regional tensions flare up again.India’s heavy reliance on imported Crude means any sustained spike in Oil prices can have sweeping economic consequences. The country sources about 85% of its Oil needs from overseas markets, leaving it highly exposed to global price swings. According to a Reuters report citing fresh government data, India’s crude oil imports surged to a record 23.32 million metric tonnes in May, marking a 9.8% MoM increase as refiners ramped up purchases to meet robust domestic demand. This dependency amplifies the currency’s vulnerability to geopolitical shocks and keeps the focus firmly on Brent’s trajectory.Looking ahead, markets will stay alert to any fresh headlines from the Middle East as traders watch for potential Iranian retaliation following the recent US strikes on nuclear sites. Any escalation could trigger safe-haven inflows into the US Dollar, push oil prices higher again, and weigh on riskier assets and emerging market currencies, such as the Rupee. In addition to geopolitical risks, investors will monitor the US PMI data due later in the day for fresh insights into economic momentum, alongside speeches from Fed Bowman and Goolsbee that could offer clues on policymakers’ appetite for future rate moves and impact the US Dollar’s near-term trajectory.Technical analysis: bullish bias intact above 86.50, 87.00 in focusFrom a technical perspective, the USD/INR pair has broken convincingly out of a multi-week symmetrical triangle, confirming a bullish bias in the near term. The breakout above the descending trendline has attracted fresh buying interest, pushing the pair to a three-month high while holding comfortably above its 21-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently near 86.52. Momentum remains firm, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 64, not yet in overbought territory but signaling strong underlying demand. As long as the pair stays above the breakout zone near 86.00–86.10, the path of least resistance appears skewed to the upside. Traders will be eyeing the psychologically important 87.00 mark next; a decisive close above this could open the door for further gains toward 87.25 or even 87.50. On the other hand, a drop back below the 21-period EMA support could invite some profit-taking. However, the broader technical structure favors dip-buying as long as geopolitical tensions continue to support safe-haven flows into the US Dollar. Indian economy FAQs How does the Indian economy impact the Indian Rupee? The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR. What is the impact of Oil prices on the Rupee? India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee. How does inflation in India impact the Rupee? Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee. How does seasonal US Dollar demand from importers and banks impact the Rupee? India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.

15:19 USD: Safe-haven sentiment is pulling the strings – Rabobank
The direction of oil prices this morning reflects the market’s cumulative view on what it deems to be the current level of risk regarding the Middle East crisis. Brent oil spiked higher at the open only to fall back to below levels traded towards the end of last week.

The direction of oil prices this morning reflects the market’s cumulative view on what it deems to be the current level of risk regarding the Middle East crisis. Brent oil spiked higher at the open only to fall back to below levels traded towards the end of last week. There is a strong consensus agreement that if Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation to the weekend strikes by the US on three of its nuclear facilities, then oil prices would spike to somewhere over USD100 /b, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes. EUR/USD to dip back to 1.12 on a 3-month view"The contained risk-off reaction appears to reflect expectations of some disruption to the supply of energy, though the limited movement in prices also suggests the view that these will not be unmanageable. In line with other asset classes, there has also been a discernible safe haven reaction in the FX market." "Most notably, the USD has reverted to type by displaying a safe haven bid. This is in contrast to its behaviour through most of the year to date when it has failed to rally on fears of a US tariff led global slowdown. In our view, the ability of the USD to find buyers today reflects two factors. The first relates to positioning and the possibility that some investors have the need to cover short USD positions after this year’s heavy selling pressure. Overlapping this is the fact that the USD still has unique safe haven properties which are distinct to views regarding US exceptionalism." "Since the market has been busy unloading USDs since the start of the year, it follows that the risk off environment could spark concerns of a USD shortage particularly since the USD remains a prime invoicing currency. Given also Rabo’s view that the Fed may only be able to cut rates once more this cycle due to inflation risks, we see risk of EUR/USD dipping back to EUR/USD1.12 on a 3-month view, though we expect the USD to soften again by the end of the year."

15:11 Gold pulls back as market digests US strikes on Iran, Strait of Hormuz risks linger
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading in a tight range on Monday after the United States (US) carried out coordinated strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure over the weekend.

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In a televised address from the White House Briefing Room, Trump described the mission as “a very successful attack,” warning that “there are many other targets” if Iran does not seek peace.At the time of writing, Gold is trading below $3,400 in the European session. Traders remain focused on developments in Tehran and the status of global Oil supply routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz.Geopolitical risks surge, boosting Gold’s safe-haven flowsThe US coordinated strikes on Iran, dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer, involved B-2 Spirit bombers and Tomahawk missiles from US submarines. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the attacks “a heinous crime” in a state broadcast interview, warning of “everlasting consequences.” His remarks were later confirmed and quoted by Reuters on Sunday.Iran’s parliament approved a motion to close the Strait of Hormuz — an Oil transit chokepoint for nearly 20% of global supply. The final decision now lies with the Supreme National Security Council. Oil prices spiked in response, adding to inflation risks and supporting safe-haven flows into Gold.Gold daily digest market movers: Strait of Hormuz, inflation at riskSpeaking during an emergency session of the United Nations (UN) Security Council on Sunday, China’s Ambassador to the UN, Fu Cong, criticized the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites as “a serious breach of sovereignty”, and warned of “potential consequences for regional stability.” He urged both the US and its allies to show restraint and emphasized that “force cannot resolve the issue.” His remarks were reported by Reuters and Chinese state media, which echoed Beijing’s call for diplomatic solutions and non-interference in Iran’s domestic affairs.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu labeled the strikes “historic,” while UN Secretary-General António Guterres described them as a “dangerous escalation,” urging restraint. These comments were published across Reuters and major international outlets on Sunday.The mission to destroy Iran’s nuclear program was described by Trump as a “spectacular military success,” claiming Iran’s enrichment infrastructure was “completely and totally obliterated.”Iranian lawmaker and Revolutionary Guards commander Esmail Kosari told Press TV that parliament had “come to the conclusion we should close the Strait of Hormuz.” Kosari added that “the final decision is the responsibility of the Supreme National Security Council” and will be enacted “whenever necessary.” His remarks were echoed in a separate interview with the Young Journalist Club and widely reported by Reuters. The Strait remains critical for global energy flows, handling nearly 20% of daily Oil exports.Geopolitical tensions bolster Gold’s safe-haven appeal. The threat of retaliation from Iran and potential energy disruptions have fueled investor demand for Gold, even as prices consolidate below the $3,400 level. Uncertainty surrounding the security of maritime routes and the broader Middle East outlook continues to support risk-off positioning.The possibility of a prolonged conflict and a spike in energy prices has renewed concern over inflation risks, particularly if the Strait closure materializes. Rising Oil prices could pressure input costs and delay central bank rate-cut plans globally, especially in the US.Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Markets are watching for any indication that the Fed is shifting away from its “higher-for-longer” stance, although officials have stressed the need for more concrete disinflation before easing policy.Global equities are trading mixed, with US stock index futures little changed in the European morning. Traders remain on edge amid limited visibility on Iran’s next move and ahead of key macroeconomic commentary from both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) this week.Gold technical analysis: XAU/USD muted below $3,400Gold (XAU/USD) remains capped near $3,370 at the time of writing, with the $3,400 zone acting as a major psychological barrier for the next big move.Immediate support lies at $3,342, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the February 28 low to the April 22 high. Dynamic support levels include the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,352 and the 50-day SMA near $3,321.Gold (XAU/USD) daily chartThe Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains negative on the daily chart, with bearish histogram bars indicating sustained downside pressure. A break below $3,342 and the moving averages could open the path toward $3,245, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.Conversely, a daily close above $3,400 would signal bullish momentum, potentially retargeting the June high of $3,452 and the all-time high of $3,500. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

15:00 Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 4.3% to -2% in April
Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 4.3% to -2% in April

15:00 Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) declined to -1% in April from previous 0.5%
Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) declined to -1% in April from previous 0.5%

14:59 JPY is unexpectedly underperforming on the day – Scotiabank
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, down a sizeable 1.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and hitting fresh local lows while threatening a push to levels last seen in early April, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, down a sizeable 1.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and hitting fresh local lows while threatening a push to levels last seen in early April, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.Market remain concerned about BoJ dedication to normalization"The JPY’s underperformance is notable, in an environment of risk aversion in which its haven peer CHF is showing impressive relative gains and a modest decline of only 0.1% vs. the USD." "The outlook for relative central bank policy may be adding to risk and terms-of-trade related weakness, as market participants appear to have underlying concerns about the BoJ’s willingness to deliver on its plans for policy normalization." "The latest BoJ meeting offered a less aggressive path for balance sheet normalization, and market participants may be extending this risk to the rate path as well. In terms of data, the PMI’s showed improvement with the mfg index pushing just above 50 and the services climbing to 51.5."

14:56 GBP a mid-performer vs. G10 – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is weak and down 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD), a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is weak and down 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD), a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.PMIs just on either side of 50"The latest PMI’s have offered a better than expected improvement in manufacturing alongside an as expected improvement in services. Both readings remain very close to the expansion/contraction threshold at 50, offering little in terms of material growth or contraction. This week’s data calendar is light and includes CBI sentiment data on Tuesday."

14:53 EUR soft, a mid-performer – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is weak, down 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

The Euro (EUR) is weak, down 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.Focus on market’s fading dovish ECB pricing"The EUR is still holding above last week’s lows, and movement remains headline-driven in the absence of major domestic events and releases. The latest PMI’s have weighed on the EUR somewhat, with manufacturing remaining unchanged at 49.4 (vs. 49.7 exp.) as services met expectations of 50.0, climbing modestly from 49.7.""This week’s data calendar includes the German IFO figures on Tuesday and France’s inflation data on Friday, as well as a heavy schedule of ECB speakers throughout the week. ECB rate expectations have been shedding their dovish bias, now pricing 20bpts of easing by year end vs. 25bpts last Monday.""The bullish technical picture is softening for EUR/USD as the multi-month sequence of higher lows and higher highs has been met with slowing momentum and an RSI that has drifted back toward the neutral level at 50. We continue to note the importance of the 50 day MA support level at 1.1364. We look to near-term support expected around 1.1420 and look to resistance above 1.1520."

14:50 CAD strays further from fair value – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) ended last week on a soft note amid rising geo-political tensions and has eased a little further over the weekend to trade back to near 1.38, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) ended last week on a soft note amid rising geo-political tensions and has eased a little further over the weekend to trade back to near 1.38, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.USD/CAD upside potential is limited at the moment"The soft CAD performance last week was tilting risks towards some additional weakness in the short run but the CAD decline risks running on a little further now. The USD is stretching away from our fair value estimate (1.3642) for funds this morning, suggesting the driver of CAD weakness is not obviously fundamental while the CAD’s detached relationship with crude oil remains intact.The USD closed out last week in positive technical shape against the CAD.""Net gains on the week delivered a bullish outside range week on the chart for the USD and gains today through resistance in the mid-1.37s suggests the advance may push on to the low/mid-1.38 area in the short run at least. Trend momentum studies are more mixed as a result of the USD’s rise over the past few days. But still bearish longer run studies suggest upside potential is limited at the moment. Support is 1.3745/50 and 1.3695/00. Resistance is 1.3860 and 1.4015."

14:46 EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Refreshes two-month high near 0.8575
The EUR/GBP pair posts a fresh two-month high near 0.8575 during European trading hours on Monday. The cross trades broadly stable after the release of the preliminary United Kingdom (UK)/Eurozone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI data for June.

14:46 USD firmer following US attack on Iran – Scotiabank
US Dollar (USD) bearishness subsided a little last week, helped by the mildly hawkish outcome of the FOMC, and has receded further this morning as markets react to the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and concerns over potential Iranian responses, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborn

US Dollar (USD) bearishness subsided a little last week, helped by the mildly hawkish outcome of the FOMC, and has receded further this morning as markets react to the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and concerns over potential Iranian responses, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.Asset markets remain subdued "The USD is broadly higher on the session so far, with only the CHF able to resist the USD’s advance. The MXN and CAD are outperforming marginally among the major currencies while the AUD, NZD and JPY are underperforming. Elsewhere, however, the market reaction is rather subdued. Stocks are narrowly mixed (down a little in Europe, up a little in US equity futures terms), major bond markets are a little softer overall and crude prices are somewhat firmer but choppy. USD gains suggest some risk aversion among investors but the broader market response is rather subdued." "Iran/Israel continue to launch attacks at each other but options for Iran to respond to the US attack are perhaps limited. The parliament voted to close the Straits of Hormuz but the leadership has not endorsed action and tanker traffic appears unaffected at this point. A broader escalation of the confrontation now seems a bigger risk, however. Fed Governor Waller’s comment that the Fed might be in position to cut rates at the end July meeting is likely to remain a minority view among policymakers, given that last week’s dots inferred a more cautious outlook among more policymakers than March." "A jump in oil prices will only bolster Fed caution. Swaps reflect just 3bps of easing risk for July now, down from 6-7bps at the end of last week. Powell is likely to strike a guarded tone in his congressional testimony this week. The USD sell off might be due a pause but a sustained recovery is unlikely amid other, serious fundamental challenges—slower growth risks, flight from USD assets, twin deficit worries, valuation. Although seasonal trends have been weak for the USD so far this year, seasonality typically turns USD-negative as we move into July/August."

14:42 WTI Oil returns to levels above $74.50 as Middle East tensions remain high
Crude Oil retreated from five-month highs at the $7750 area in the early Asian session, but downside attempts have been capped right above $73.00.

14:05 USD/CHF is struggling to return above 0.8200 despite the overall Dollar strength
The US Dollar is trading with moderate gains against the Swiss Franc on Monday, but remains trapped within the last few days' trading range, as the 0.8200 level keeps holding bulls for now.The Greenback is appreciating against most of its main peers, but is failing to perform any significant advance

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The Greenback is appreciating against most of its main peers, but is failing to perform any significant advance against the safe-haven Swiss Franc, which is one of the strongest currencies today, amid a risk-averse market.An attack from US planes and missiles that, according to President Trump, have devastated Iran’s nuclear program keeps investors on edge on Monday, awaiting a response from the Islamic Republic, which would escalate the conflict into a full-blown regional war.

Iranian officials have threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, and an army spokesperson vowed severe consequences to the US earlier today.

In the macroeconomic front, US preliminary S&P Global PMIs are expected to show that business activity in the manufacturing and services sector eased in June, although still at levels consistent with moderate growth.

The highlights of the week will be the Fed Chair’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the US PCE prices Index on Friday, which will provide further clues on the bank’s monetary policy calendar. Economic Indicator S&P Global Composite PMI The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging US private-business activity in the manufacturing and services sector. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD. Read more. Next release: Mon Jun 23, 2025 13:45 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Consensus: - Previous: 53 Source: S&P Global

13:53 Japanese Yen weakens to five-week low as US strikes on Iran lift US Dollar safe-haven appeal
The Japanese Yen (JPY) kicks off the week under pressure, stretching its losing streak to a third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday.

13:49 AUD/USD drops toward range support – Société Générale
AUD/USD is under pressure after failing to break resistance at 0.6545, with the pair now testing key support levels that could determine the next leg of its trend, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

AUD/USD is under pressure after failing to break resistance at 0.6545, with the pair now testing key support levels that could determine the next leg of its trend, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Aussie fails at 0.6545, risks deeper decline"AUD/USD failed to overcome the upper limit of its recent consolidation at 0.6545 resulting in a sharp pullback. It has given up the 50-DMA and is approaching the lower band of the range near 0.6340, which could be an interim support." "A bounce can’t be ruled out however inability to cross 0.6545 may result in continuation of decline. Break below 0.6340 can lead to a deeper down move towards 0.6230, the 50% retracement from April and 0.6150."

13:42 Brent tests channel top after strong rally – Société Générale
Brent crude’s steep rally faces a key technical test as prices approach major resistance levels, with stretched momentum suggesting a possible near-term pullback, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

Brent crude’s steep rally faces a key technical test as prices approach major resistance levels, with stretched momentum suggesting a possible near-term pullback, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Momentum builds, but Brent faces resistance"Brent has experienced a steep uptrend after breakout from a base. It is now attempting a cross above the upper limit of a descending channel drawn since 2023. The daily MACD histogram is registering multi-month highs, indicating a stretched up-move." "Next hurdles are located at the January high of $82.40/82.60. In the event that Brent fails to defend recent gap levels near $77.65/77.00, a short-term pullback may take shape."

13:33 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds key 20-day EMA above $3,350, US-Iran tensions escalate
Gold price (XAU/USD) exhibits a sluggish performance above $3,350 during European trading hours on Monday.

13:32 Trump threatens Powell with dismissal again – Commerzbank
It came as no surprise that Fed Chair Jay Powell would draw the wrath of the US president with the FOMC's decision to leave interest rates unchanged once again – nor did the increasing rudeness displayed by the US president come as a surprise.

It came as no surprise that Fed Chair Jay Powell would draw the wrath of the US president with the FOMC's decision to leave interest rates unchanged once again – nor did the increasing rudeness displayed by the US president come as a surprise. On Friday, however, he went a step further and repeated his threat to possibly dismiss Powell from office prematurely after all, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. It may be hard for Trump to undermine the Fed's independence,"It should now be clear to everyone that such a move would be a disaster for the US dollar. Any successor to Powell would have to cave in to the governments pressure towards an easier monetary policy as otherwise they would also very quickly find themselves out of a job. Admittedly, what Trump ‘says’ (on social media) is far from what Trump does. But just raising the idea that he could fire Powell is enough to hurt the US dollar.""USD investors now have to once again grapple with the increased risk that the Fed will lose its independence and the dollar will crash as a result. Even if Powell remains in office, one thing should now be clear: the likelihood that he will be succeeded by a conventional candidate has become significantly lower.""An important task of the chair is to find consensus within the FOMC. But that does not necessarily mean that his vote carries more weight. I therefore doubt that replacing the Fed Chair alone would lead to a complete reorientation of US monetary policy. To achieve this, Trump would probably have to replace the majority of the Board of Governors. This makes it difficult to undermine the Fed's independence, however, whether this will save the dollar is questionable."

13:23 USD/CNH: Expected to trade in a 7.1750/7.1950 range – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a 7.1750/7.1950 range. In the longer run, USD has likely moved into a 7.1620/7.2200 range trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a 7.1750/7.1950 range. In the longer run, USD has likely moved into a 7.1620/7.2200 range trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD has likely moved into a range trading phase24-HOUR VIEW: "We noted 'a slight increase in downward momentum' last Friday, and we expected USD to 'trade in a lower range of 7.1750/7.1930.' USD then traded between 7.1745 and 7.1876, closing largely unchanged at 7.1806 (-0.08%). USD opened on a strong note today, but there has been no significant increase in upward momentum. Today, we continue to expect USD to trade in a 7.1750/7.1950 range." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our latest narrative was from 09 Jun, when USD was at 7.1870. We indicated that time that USD 'has likely moved back into a range trading phase, probably between 7.1620 and 7.2200.' Since then, USD has traded mostly sideways, and our narrative remains unchanged."

13:21 US Dollar Index (DXY) hits three-week highs at 99.40 buoyed by risk aversion
The Dollar has reclaimn¡med its traditional safe-haven status, with investors rushing away from risk on concerns about the possibility of a wider conflict in the Middle East after this weekend’s attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. The US Dollar is the strongest of the G8 currencies on Monday.

13:08 Oil price shock and the US Dollar – Commerzbank
US President Trump had signalled it, and now it has happened. The US government has joined in on Israel's attacks on Iran and, according to reports, destroyed important nuclear facilities.

US President Trump had signalled it, and now it has happened. The US government has joined in on Israel's attacks on Iran and, according to reports, destroyed important nuclear facilities. The dollar would probably appreciate in the wake of an oil price shock, which is now increasingly feared, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. USD might stop climbing up in the near future"However, this is less due to its status as a safe haven and more to do with the fact that the US terms of trade improve when the oil price rises. Why? Because the US is now one of the world's most important oil suppliers. Or to put it simply: the US economy can afford more imports for the same amount of exports, which become more valuable due to the rise in oil prices. This usually leads to an appreciation of the dollar, which reflects this gain in purchasing power.""The Fed would respond to the inflationary consequences of an oil price increase with a sufficiently restrictive monetary policy. Strictly speaking, an improvement in the terms of trade leads to a real appreciation of the exchange rate, and this can happen in two ways: either through a nominal appreciation of the exchange rate or through higher inflation. Both lead to US products becoming more expensive compared to foreign products. Which channel is ultimately stronger depends on the central bank that controls inflation.""In my assumption that the dollar would appreciate, I had therefore assumed that the Fed would keep inflation in check. Anyone who followed the US president's activity on his preferred social media channel on Friday will now suspect that my assumption was perhaps too optimistic and the dollar might not benefit as much as thought"

12:54 AUD/USD: A move 0.6355 is very much possible – UOB Group
A move to 0.6355 in the AUD/USD pair can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

A move to 0.6355 in the AUD/USD pair can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Risk seems to be on the downside24-HOUR VIEW: "AUD dropped to 0.6446 last Thursday and then rebounded. Last Friday, when AUD was at 0.6485, we indicated that 'instead of continuing to decline, AUD is more likely to trade sideways today, probably in a range of 0.6460/0.6510.' However, AUD dipped to a low of 0.6449 and closed at 0.6452. Today, AUD opened with a gap lower before recovering. There has been an increase in downward momentum, but while the risk is on the downside, AUD may not have sufficient momentum to break below 0.6400. On the upside, resistance is at 0.6465, and if AUD breaks above 0.6480, it would indicate that the downward pressure has eased." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have expected AUD to trade in a range since the middle of the month. Tracking the subsequent price movements, we highlighted last Friday (20 Jun, spot at 0.6485) that 'while further range trading still seems likely, a tighter 0.6430/0.6550 range should be sufficient to contain price movements for now.' Although AUD broke below 0.6430 on the opening today, it must close below this level before a move to 0.6355 can be expected. The likelihood of AUD closing below 0.6430 will remain in place, as long as the ‘strong resistance’ level, currently at 0.6505, is not breached."

12:49 USD bounce looks small so far – ING
Here are a few initial considerations on the FX reaction to this weekend’s US strikes in Iran, with the caveat that this is a fast-developing situation. First, the dollar bounce looks small so far, especially considering its oversold and undervalued position.

Here are a few initial considerations on the FX reaction to this weekend’s US strikes in Iran, with the caveat that this is a fast-developing situation. First, the dollar bounce looks small so far, especially considering its oversold and undervalued position. This follows the recent script: markets are quick to punish but slow to reward the dollar. For this to change, we think a prolonged period of elevated oil prices is necessary, as that would dent the appetite for oil-averse safe-haven alternatives like EUR and JPY, and in a way force-feed a return to the dollar to investors seeking defensive plays, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz"Markets seem to be pricing in a modest chance of this happening and treating the escalation in Iran with a good deal of caution. Brent prices jumped above $80/bbl in early trading but have now trimmed gains to just above $78. If indeed this geopolitical risk and oil spike proves to be only temporary, we think markets will rapidly default back to preferring strategic USD shorts on the back of US-generated bearish drivers.""The determining factor at this stage appears to be Iran’s retaliation against the US strikes here is our commodities team analysis. We have seen scattered reports about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which has the potential to send oil prices considerably higher and trigger further unwinding of USD shorts before any de-escalation restores the conditions for rebuilding those positions.""Data will likely play a secondary role this week. The US calendar’s highlight is Friday’s core PCE figure, which is expected at 0.1% but may still fail to drive rate expectations given the Federal Reserve's stated cautiousness in signalling any dovish shift. We’ll see how Powell defends those views in congressional testimonies tomorrow and Wednesday. Expect also some focus on today’s S&P Global PMIs, which are expected to have slipped back lower in June, and on whether consumer confidence (tomorrow) has moved back above 100.0."

12:42 USD/JPY: Eyes on 148.50 – OCBC
USD/JPY jumped in response to geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. USD/JPY was last at 147.82 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD/JPY jumped in response to geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. USD/JPY was last at 147.82 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Upside risks not ruled out"Typically, geopolitical concerns should see safe-haven proxies such as JPY rises but geopolitical issues concerning oil may not see the typical relationship play out. Rising oil prices can impact oil import bills and UST yields while timing of BoJ policy normalisation may further be delayed due to higher economic uncertainty." "As such, this puts temporary upward pressure on USD/JPY. Furthermore, JPY longs are significant by historical standards – can be at risk of further unwinding if weakness persists past key levels. Daily momentum is bullish while RSI rose. Upside risks not ruled out. Next level of resistance is at 148.50. Support at 145.50, 144.20/40 levels (23.6% fibo, 21, 50 DMAs)."

12:39 GBP/USD: Downward momentum is beginning to build – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) may retest the 1.3385 level; a sustained break below this level seems unlikely for now. In the longer run, downward momentum is beginning to build; it may take a while before 1.3335 comes into view, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Pound Sterling (GBP) may retest the 1.3385 level; a sustained break below this level seems unlikely for now. In the longer run, downward momentum is beginning to build; it may take a while before 1.3335 comes into view, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. It may take a while before 1.3335 comes into view24-HOUR VIEW: "After GBP fell to 1.3383 and rebounded strongly, we highlighted the following last Friday: 'Although the rebound seems stretched, GBP could test 1.3500 before a pause or pullback is likely. The strong resistance at 1.3520 is unlikely to come under threat.' Our assessment was not wrong, as GBP rose to 1.3511 and then pulled back to close at 1.3451. Today, GBP dropped sharply on the open, and downward momentum is building. GBP may retest the 1.3385 level, but a sustained break below this level seems unlikely for now. Resistance is at 1.3445 and 1.3465." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Thursday, 19 Jun, when GBP was at 1.3415), we indicated that “downward momentum is beginning to build, but it may take a while before 1.3335 comes into view.” We also indicated that 'only a break of 1.3520 (‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that the buildup in momentum has faded.' Last Friday, GBP rose to 1.3511 and then pulled back. As our levels remains intact, we continue to hold the same view."

12:36 DXY: Mild bullish momentum intact – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) rose in early trade, with impact more pronounced on Asian FX than DM FX. US joining Israel on attack in Iran risks a deeper conflict in the Middle East. DXY was last seen trading at 99.41 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

US Dollar (USD) rose in early trade, with impact more pronounced on Asian FX than DM FX. US joining Israel on attack in Iran risks a deeper conflict in the Middle East. DXY was last seen trading at 99.41 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Geopolitical developments remain fluid"This can bring disruption to supply chains and pose risks of even higher oil prices, as well as undermine broader risk sentiments. Shipping insurance, freight costs will likely increase, and delivery times may be longer, exposing fragilities in global trade. High beta and net oil importing Asia FX such as PHP, INR, KRW, TWD, and THB may be affected more than other Asian or DM FX. The risk of oil prices going higher can add to the oil import bill.""Elsewhere, markets may also speculate that that Fed’s plan to lower rates may be pushed out. In the interim, this can undermine Asian FX, that are sensitive to higher US rates. Nevertheless, geopolitical developments remain fluid, and two-way risks are highly likely as markets keep a close eye on any Iranian retaliation. Iran state media had reported that the Iranian parliament supported the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Final decision hinges on Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader Ayatollah.""Mild bullish momentum intact while RSI rose. Resistance at 99.50 (50 DMA), 100.2 and 100.60 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low). Support at 98.20, 97.60 levels (recent low). Day ahead brings prelim PMIs. Fed’s Waller, Bowman, Goolsbee, Williams and Kugler are scheduled to speak later."

12:34 Kremlin: US strikes on Iran have increased the number of participants in the conflict
The Kremlin said in a statement on Monday, “US strikes on Iran have increased the number of participants in the conflict and ushered in a new spiral of escalation.”

The Kremlin said in a statement on Monday, “US strikes on Iran have increased the number of participants in the conflict and ushered in a new spiral of escalation.”Additional takeawaysRussian President Vladimir Putin spoke to Prime Minister of Iraq.

Putin will receive Iranian Foreign Minister later today.

Subject of Putin's talks with the Iranian Foreign Minister is 'absolutely clear'.

Russia deeply regrets and condemns the US strikes.

Fate of Iran's nuclear facilities after US strikes and the radiation situation remains to be determined.

The situation of the ground in Iran after the strikes cannot but be a cause of concern.

12:32 AUD/USD extends losses to one-month lows sub-0.6400 with risk appetite subdued
The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar is one of the worst performers among major currencies on Monday.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Aussie Dollar trades lower on Monday with fears of a regional war in the Middle East gripping markets.The US Dollar holds gains as the market awaits Iran's response to the US attack.Positive Australian business activity data has failed to support the AUD.The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar is one of the worst performers among major currencies on Monday. The pair extended its reversal from last week's highs at 0.6550 to one-month lows right below 0.6400, with investors holding their breath after the US attack to Iran.

The Aussie extended losses for the third consecutive day on Monday, with investors wary of risk, awaiting a potential response from Tehran to the massive bombings of key energy sites, which, according to US President Trump, have devastated Iran’s nuclear program.

Tehran vowed a response, and a spokesperson from Iran’s army promised severe consequences to the US. So far, however, US interest in the region has not been attacked, and Iran has limited its retaliation with new missile strikes at Israel.Australian business activity improvesEarlier today, Australian Preliminary S&P Global PMI figures revealed that business activity improved in June, boosted mainly by the services sector. The impact on the AUD, however, was minimal, with geopolitical tensions getting all the focus.

In the US on Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller rattled markets and put the bank’s wait-and-see stance into question as he campaigned for a rate cut in July. Chairman Powell will surely be questioned about this at his Monetary Policy Report to Congress, due on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The highlight today will be the US preliminary S&P Global PMI, which is expected to show some slowdown in both the manufacturing and services sectors, but still at levels consistent with growth. Economic Indicator S&P Global Composite PMI The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in Australia for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the Australian private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for AUD. Read more. Last release: Sun Jun 22, 2025 23:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: 51.2 Consensus: - Previous: 50.5 Source: S&P Global Economic Indicator S&P Global Composite PMI The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging US private-business activity in the manufacturing and services sector. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD. Read more. Next release: Mon Jun 23, 2025 13:45 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Consensus: - Previous: 53 Source: S&P Global

12:31 EUR/USD: Chance for EUR to test 1.1445 – UOB Group
There is a chance for EUR to test 1.1445; the major support at 1.1400 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range for now, probably between 1.1400 and 1.1570, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

There is a chance for EUR to test 1.1445; the major support at 1.1400 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range for now, probably between 1.1400 and 1.1570, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Major support at 1.1400 is unlikely to come under threat24-HOUR VIEW: "In the early Asian session last Friday, we indicated that 'the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase between 1.1470 and 1.1540.' EUR traded in a narrower range than expected (1.1489/1.1553), before closing at 1.1522 (+0.24%). While EUR gapped lower on open today, there has been no significant increase in downward momentum. However, there is a chance for EUR to test the 1.1445 support level. Based on the current momentum, the major support at 1.1400 is unlikely to come under threat. On the upside, resistance levels are at 1.1515 and 1.1540." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (19 Jun, spot at 1.1475), we highlighted that EUR 'is likely to trade in a range for now, probably between 1.1400 and 1.1570.' We continue to hold the same view."

12:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

12:28 EUR: Chance of returning to 1.140 – ING
The yen and antipodeans are most under pressure at the time of writing, but it was EUR and SEK that initially took the biggest hits in G10 as markets reopened, which could signal they’re the two G10 currencies most vulnerable to further meaningful geopolitical escalation, ING's FX analyst Francesco

The yen and antipodeans are most under pressure at the time of writing, but it was EUR and SEK that initially took the biggest hits in G10 as markets reopened, which could signal they’re the two G10 currencies most vulnerable to further meaningful geopolitical escalation, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.EUR/USD may not deviate from the 1.1450-1.1600 range"Both have been among the top G10 performers year-to-date alongside NOK, but unlike Norway’s currency, EUR and SEK are negatively exposed to oil prices due to their countries’ energy dependence." "For now, as discussed in the USD section above, the impact of geopolitics on FX remains small. On four occasions, EUR/USD tested the 1.1450 support level since the June 13 Israel strikes on Iran, yet markets lack conviction that this conflict will be prolonged or that the dollar has much to gain from that. Ultimately, it may still take some domestic macro event, especially in the US, to drive any substantial deviation from the 1.1450-1.1600 range.""We have a slight preference for a return to 1.140 rather than another acceleration in the EUR/USD multi-month rally over the coming weeks. But we’ll have to play it by ear given the highly volatile geopolitical situation."

12:22 Dow Jones futures steady despite US attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, PMI awaited
Dow Jones futures have pared earlier losses and are now flat around 42,500, while E-mini S&P 500 futures trade higher near 6,030, up 11 points, after trimming gains during Monday’s European session.

11:42 USD/CAD holds gains near one-month highs above 0.3740 on cautious markets, soft Canadian data
The US Dollar is practically flat against its Canadian counterpart on Monday, consolidating gains after an impulsive recovery from year-to-date lows at 1.3538 last week.The Greenback appreciated more than 1% in the previous three trading days, with investors rushing for safe assets as risk aversion

11:35 UK Preliminary Services PMI rises to 51.3 in June vs. 51.3 expected
The seasonally adjusted S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved to 47.7 in June from 46.4 in May. The data better the market forecast of 46.6 in the reported period.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (46.6) in June: Actual (47.7)
United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (46.6) in June: Actual (47.7)

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI meets forecasts (51.3) in June
United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI meets forecasts (51.3) in June

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI above forecasts (50.5) in June: Actual (50.7)
United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI above forecasts (50.5) in June: Actual (50.7)

11:12 NZD/USD falls to near 0.5900 due to risk-off sentiment following US attack on Iran
NZD/USD continues its losing streak for the third successive session, trading around 0.5900 during the European hours on Monday. The NZD/USD pair loses ground amid dampened risk sentiment, driven by the escalating Middle East tension.

11:02 Eurozone Preliminary Manufacturing PMI steadies at 49.4 in June vs. 49.8 expected
The Eurozone manufacturing sector remained in contraction, while the services sector prodded the expansion territory in June, according to data from the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, published on Monday.

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.4, below expectations (49.8) in June
Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.4, below expectations (49.8) in June

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI meets forecasts (50) in June
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI meets forecasts (50) in June

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI registered at 50.2, below expectations (50.5) in June
Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI registered at 50.2, below expectations (50.5) in June

10:59 Pound Sterling bounces back even as US-Iran tensions spoil market sentiment
The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers early losses and rebounds to near 1.3440 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Monday. The GBP/USD pair attracts bids as the United States (US) attack on Iran appears to have triggered a muted response from markets so far

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling claws back its initial losses and flattens at around 1.3430 against the US Dollar.Market sentiment turns risk-averse as the US strikes Iran’s nuclear sites.Investors await the UK-US flash PMI data for June.The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers early losses and rebounds to near 1.3440 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Monday. The GBP/USD pair attracts bids as the United States (US) attack on Iran appears to have triggered a muted response from markets so farInvestors shifted to the safe-haven fleet right at the opening of the week as the United States (US) unexpectedly struck Tehran’s three nuclear facilities over the weekend. However, safe-haven demand waned somewhat as the European session approached.The demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset increased as these tend to performs better in a geopolitical uncertain environment. During the European trading session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades higher around 99.00.US President Donald Trump said on Truth.Social that Washington’s military forces have successfully demolished Iranian nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Trump’s claim that Tehran’s nuclear sites have been destroyed has been challenged as Israeli officials have stated that Iran managed to shift its uranium stockpiles before the attack, according to the New York Times.Investors brace for further weakness in riskier assets, such as the Pound Sterling, as Iran vows to retaliate against the US. Iran’s UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani said in an emergency meeting of the United Nations (UN) Security Council on Sunday that the Iranian military will decide the “timing, nature and scale of Iran’s proportionate response”.Meanwhile, the Iranian parliament has passed the proposal of closing the Strait of Hormuz to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, a move that could potentially diminish the global Oil supply, Iran’s Press TV reported.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling rebounds ahead of flash UK PMI dataThe Pound Sterling trades broadly unchanged against its peers on Monday amid a supportive BoE’s monetary policy outlook. The BoE maintained a “gradual and careful” monetary easing guidance on Thursday following the interest rate decision in which it held borrowing rates steady at 4.25%.BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said in a press conference that interest rates remain on a “gradual downward path”. Bailey also guided that the central bank will closely monitor softening labor market conditions and rising energy prices amid escalating Middle East tensions, which will be key risks to the economy.Meanwhile, investors await the flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for June, which will be published at 08:30 GMT. The PMI data is expected to show that activityy in the services sector expanded at a faster pace, while the manufacturing sector activity declined but at a moderate pace. The Composite PMI is seen rising to 50.5 from 50.3 in May.In the US, investors also await the preliminary US S&P Global PMI data for June, which will be published at 13:45 GMT. Financial market participants will pay close attention to the impact of tariffs on input costs.Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller argued on Friday in favor of an interest rate reduction in the July policy meeting. Waller stated that he expects limited impact of tariffs on inflation and warns of cracks in the labor market, which prompts the need for monetary policy expansion. “The tariffs should pose a one-off level effect on prices and not be a persistent boost to inflation," Waller said and added, “The Fed should not wait for the job market to crash in order to cut rates." FXStreet's Fedtracker, which gauges the tone of Fed officials' speeches on a dovish-to-hawkish scale from 0 to 10 using a custom AI model, rated Waller's words as dovish with a score of 3.4. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling recovers to near 1.3445The Pound Sterling bounces back to near 1.3445 after a weak opening around 1.3400 against the US Dollar on Monday. However, its near-term trend remains bearish as the GBP/USD pair stays below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around 1.3477.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, close to the 50 neutral level, indicating a sideways performance in the near term.Looking down, the May 16 low around 1.3250 will act as a key support zone. On the upside, the three-year high around 1.3630 will act as a key barrier. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:51 Forex Today: Geopolitics overshadow data releases to start week
Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 23:

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Preliminary June Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data releases from the Eurozone, the UK and the US will be featured in the economic calendar on Monday. Policymakers from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will also be delivering speeches throughout the day. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.36% -0.28% 0.37% 0.02% 0.12% 0.31% -0.06% EUR 0.36% 0.05% 0.76% 0.38% 0.43% 0.68% 0.26% GBP 0.28% -0.05% 0.75% 0.33% 0.39% 0.63% 0.22% JPY -0.37% -0.76% -0.75% -0.36% -0.27% 0.00% -0.49% CAD -0.02% -0.38% -0.33% 0.36% 0.15% 0.30% -0.11% AUD -0.12% -0.43% -0.39% 0.27% -0.15% 0.22% -0.17% NZD -0.31% -0.68% -0.63% -0.01% -0.30% -0.22% -0.41% CHF 0.06% -0.26% -0.22% 0.49% 0.11% 0.17% 0.41% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).Oil prices shot higher at the weekly opening after Iran's parliament approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key sea passage through which around 20% of global oil and gas demand flows, in response to the US' attacks. The final decision will be taken by the Supreme National Security Council. Although Iran's attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz remained short-lived in the past, with the US Navy taking action quickly, oil prices rose sharply early Monday. After climbing above $77 per barrel in the Asian session, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices corrected lower and were last seen trading at around $74.50.The US Dollar (USD) Index started the week with a bullish gap before retreating slightly. At the time of press, the USD Index was trading in positive territory at around 99.00. On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver the semi-annual Monetary Policy testimony to Congress. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade flat in the European morning.Gold advanced toward $3,400 early Monday after losing nearly 2% in the previous week. XAU/USD edges lower to start the European session and holds slightly above $3,350.The data from Australia showed earlier in the day that the S&P Global Composite PMI improved to 51.2 in June's flash estimate from 50.5 in May. This reading showed that the business activity in the private sector expanded at an accelerating pace. AUD/USD stays on the back foot despite the upbeat data and trades in negative territory below 0.6450.EUR/USD holds steady at around 1.1500 in the early European session on Monday. HCOB Composite PMI in Germany rose to 50.4 in June (preliminary) from 48.5 in May. Later in the day, ECB President Christine Lagarde will an introductory statement at a hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.GBP/USD fell nearly 1% in the previous week and edged lower in the Asian session on Monday. The pair rebounds from daily lows and trades near 1.3450. USD/JPY gains traction on Monday and trades at its highest level since mid-May above 147.00. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

10:47 AUD/JPY holds gains near 94.50 due to potential delay in the BoJ’s rate hikes
AUD/JPY extends its gains for the second consecutive session, trading around 94.50 during the early European hours on Monday. The currency cross depreciates as the Japanese Yen (JPY) loses ground amid rising expectations of delaying the interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

10:47 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD hesitates at $36.00 with risk aversion easing
Silver found support at $35.50 but seems unable to extend beyond $36.00.Risk aversion is easing in the early European session, which is weighing on precious metals.XAG/USD is forming a potential bearish H&S with its neckline at $35.45-$35.50,Silver (XAG/USD) found a bottom near 35.50 following a rev

10:32 German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI rises to 49 in June as expected
The German manufacturing and services sectors contraction eased in June, the preliminary business activity report published by the HCOB survey showed on Monday.

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 49 in June vs. 49 forecast.Services PMI for the German economy improved to 49.4 in June vs. 47.5 estimate.EUR/USD keeps the red near 1.1500 after mixed German PMIs.The German manufacturing and services sectors contraction eased in June, the preliminary business activity report published by the HCOB survey showed on Monday.The HCOB Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone’s top economy improved to 49 this month, compared with May’s 48.3, aligning with the expected 49 reading.more to come ....

10:30 Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 49.4 above expectations (47.5) in June
Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 49.4 above expectations (47.5) in June

10:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI meets forecasts (49) in June
Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI meets forecasts (49) in June

10:30 Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 50.4 above expectations (49) in June
Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 50.4 above expectations (49) in June

10:27 USD/CHF trades with negative bias below 0.8200; remains confined in a familiar range
The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers in the vicinity of the 0.8200 mark and slides to the lower end of a nearly one-week-old range during the early part of the European session on Monday.

10:16 Iran military threatens US with "heavy consequences" after strikes
The Iranian Foreign Minister wrote a letter to the United Nations Secretary General calling for immediate and decisive condemnation of US strikes on Iran. Meanwhile, the Iranian army chief stated that he’s free to take action against US interests.

10:15 France HCOB Services PMI came in at 48.7, below expectations (49.2) in June
France HCOB Services PMI came in at 48.7, below expectations (49.2) in June

10:15 France HCOB Composite PMI registered at 48.5, below expectations (49.3) in June
France HCOB Composite PMI registered at 48.5, below expectations (49.3) in June

10:15 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 47.8, below expectations (50) in June
France HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 47.8, below expectations (50) in June

09:57 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Retains bullish bias near 198.00
The GBP/JPY cross trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day near 197.95 during the early European session on Monday.

09:02 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $74.71 per barrel, up from Friday’s close at $73.77.

08:55 EUR/GBP gathers strength above 0.8550 ahead of Eurozone/UK PMI releases
The EUR/GBP cross trades in positive territory near 0.8570 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against the Euro (EUR) as UK Retail Sales declined more than expected in May.

08:23 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA barrier near 1.1500 due to bullish bias
EUR/USD extends its winning streak for the fourth successive session, trading around 1.1490 during the Asian hours on Monday. On the daily chart, technical analysis indicates a strengthening of a bullish bias, as the pair continues to trade within an ascending channel pattern.

08:19 FX option expiries for Jun 23 NY cut
FX option expiries for Jun 23 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Jun 23 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1400 1b1.1490 1.1b1.1500 1.1b1.1550 1.7b1.1600 1.1bUSD/JPY: USD amounts 145.00 501mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6510 517m

08:10 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Extends winning streak amid risk-off mood
The USD/CAD pair extends its winning streak for the fifth trading day on Monday. The Loonie pair gains as demand for safe-haven assets, such as the US Dollar (USD), has increased after the direct involvement of the United States (US) into the aerial war between Israel and Iran over the weekend.

08:07 USD/INR opens strongly as Indian Rupee is hit hard by global Oil supply risks
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a bearish note against the US Dollar (USD) and jumps to near 86.85 at the start of the week.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee slumps to near 86.85 at open against the US Dollar as rising crude prices have battered the former.Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz following the US attack on Tehran’s nuclear facilities.Fed’s Waller supports reducing interest rates in the July policy meeting.The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a bearish note against the US Dollar (USD) and jumps to near 86.85 at the start of the week. Investors were bracing for a significant negative opening of the USD/INR pair, following the risk-off market sentiment and a sharp increase in the Oil price due to the United States (US) joining Israel’s assault on Iran.Currencies that depend significantly on the import of Oil get impacted severely by rising energy prices.Over the weekend, the US struck three Iranian nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan, aiming to restrict Tehran from fulfilling its ambition of building nuclear warheads. According to comments from the White House came on Thursday, Washington was expected to take decision on whether to strike Iran on not was expected to be taken within two weeks.The unexpected direct involvement of the US in Middle East tensions has forced investors to shift to the safe-haven fleet, improving the demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, revisits the 10-day high slightly above 99.00.In retaliation, Iran is preparing to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which almost a quarter of the global Oil is supplied.The decision to close the Oil gateway, which Iran shares with Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has been approved by Tehran’s parliament and has been forwarded to the Supreme National Security Council for final approval, Iran’s Press TV reported.Daily digest market movers: Indian Rupee underperforms US Dollar amid risk-off moodThe Indian Rupee resumes its downside journey against the US Dollar after a short-lived pullback move on Friday to near 86.55. Rising crude prices due to flaring Middle East tensions after the direct involvement of the US in the Israel-Iran war have pushed the Indian Rupee on the backfoot again.Market experts are bracing for a significant upside in the USD/INR, citing that higher energy prices would accelerate India’s current account deficit, which will weaken the Indian Rupee further.According to analysts at Bernstein, the Indian Rupee could depreciate toward Rs. 88 against the US Dollar if Israel-Iran tensions persist. The private wealth management firm estimated that a sustained $10 rise in crude prices over a quarter could add 0.11% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to India’s current account deficit.Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has projected that Brent crude could briefly peak at $110 per barrel if oil flows through the critical waterway were halved for a month and remained down by 10% for the following 11 months, Reuters reported. Following the US attack on Iran, Brent Crude Oil has jumped to around $78.80, the highest level seen in five months.On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) minutes released on Friday showed that the Indian central bank front-loaded interest rate cuts to send a clear message to economic agents that it intends to support consumption and investment through lower borrowing costs. In the policy meeting, the RBI slashed its Repo Rate unexpectedly by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.5%.In the US region, traders are expected to raise bets supporting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates in the July policy meeting as officials have split over the monetary policy outlook after holding it steady in last week’s meeting.On Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller argued in favor of cutting interest rates in July, citing concerns over the labor market. "The Fed should not wait for the job market to crash in order to cut rates," Waller said in an interview with CNBC Squawk Box on Friday. He also stated that the impact of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump will be as big on inflation. "I do not think inflation impact from tariffs will be big, trend is looking good," Waller said.Contrary to Fed’s Waller, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said that there is no rush for interest rate cuts amid uncertainty over how much new trade policies will prompt inflation. “I am comfortable with where we are and nothing is burning on either side [inflation and labor market] such that it suggests there’s a rush to act,” Barkin said.Technical Analysis: USD/INR aims to revisit two-month high around 86.95The Indian Rupee rises to near 86.85 against the US Dollar on Monday and aims to revisit an over two-month high of 86.93 posted on Thursday. The near-term trend of the pair remains bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 86.10.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 60.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum is intact.Looking down, the 20-day EMA is a key support level for the major. On the upside, the April 11 high of 87.14 will be a critical hurdle for the pair. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

08:03 India HSBC Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 57.6 to 58.4 in June
India HSBC Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 57.6 to 58.4 in June

08:01 India HSBC Services PMI: 60.7 (June) vs 58.8
India HSBC Services PMI: 60.7 (June) vs 58.8

08:01 India HSBC Composite PMI: 61 (June) vs 59.3
India HSBC Composite PMI: 61 (June) vs 59.3

08:01 Singapore Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.8) in May
Singapore Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.8) in May

07:59 US Dollar Index (DXY) sticks to modest gains above 99.00, or nearly two-week high
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, opens with a modest bullish gap and hits a nearly two-week high during the Asian session on Monday.

07:57 WTI climbs above $74.50 as US strikes on Iran raise fears of supply disruption
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $74.80 during the Asian trading hours on Monday.

07:40 Gold price reverses Asian session uptick; downside seems limited amid rising Middle East tensions
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on its modest Asian session uptick and attracts fresh sellers in the vicinity of the $3,400 mark on Monday.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 9,372.58 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,395.26 it cost on Friday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 109,319.90 per tola from INR 109,584.40 per tola on friday. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,372.58 10 Grams 93,725.80 Tola 109,319.90 Troy Ounce 291,520.10 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:10 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Rises above 168.50, hits fresh eleven-month highs
EUR/JPY extends gains for the third successive session, trading around 168.70 during the Asian hours on Monday. According to the technical analysis of the daily chart, the currency cross moves upwards within an ascending channel pattern, suggesting the strengthening of a bullish bias.

07:07 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD gains momentum above $36.00 on risk-off sentiment
The Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher to near $36.10, snapping the three-day losing streak during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The white metal attracts some buyers amid the rising tensions in the Middle East after the US bombed Iran's nuclear sites.

06:07 USD/CHF remains subdued below 0.8200 due to increased safe-haven demand
USD/CHF edges lower after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 0.8170 during the Asian hours on Monday.

06:00 NZD/USD struggles below mid-0.5900s/monthly low as traders await Iran’s response to US strikes
The NZD/USD pair opens with a modest bearish gap at the start of a new week and moves further away from the year-to-date peak, around the 0.6100 neighborhood touched last Monday.

05:43 Japanese Yen slides to over one-month low against a firmer USD
The Japanese Yen (JPY) kicks off the new week on a weaker note and drops to its lowest level since May 15 against a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session.

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The Bank of Japan (BoJ) last week signaled its preference to move cautiously in normalizing still-easy monetary policy, which forced investors to push back their expectations about the likely timing of the next interest rate hike. Apart from this, concerns that existing 25% US tariffs on Japanese vehicles and 24% reciprocal levies on other imports would impact the Japanese economy, turn out to be another factor undermining the JPY. Meanwhile, Japan's annual National Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained well above the BoJ's 2% target in May and gives the central bank more impetus to hike interest rates again in the coming months. Adding to this, the better-than-expected release of Japan's PMI earlier this Monday backs the case for more BoJ rate hikes. Moreover, the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, in the wake of the US bombing of key nuclear sites in Iran on Sunday, could benefit the JPY's relative safe-haven status. This might further contribute to capping the upside for the USD/JPY pair. Japanese Yen bulls remain on the sidelines amid mixed fundamental cuesThe Bank of Japan last week decided to slow the pace of reduction in its bond purchases from fiscal 2026. Moreover, the gloomy economic outlook and concerns about the potential economic fallout from US trade tariffs suggest that the BoJ could forgo raising interest rates in 2025. Data released on Friday showed that Japan's core inflation remained above the central bank's 2% target for well over three years and rose to a more than two-year high in May. This keeps the door open for further rate hikes by the BoJ, though it fails to boost the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, the au Jibun Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed on Monday that Japan's manufacturing moved back into expansion territory for the first time since May 2024. The Manufacturing PMI rose sharply from the 49.4 seen in the previous month to 50.4 in June.Adding to this, the gauge for the services sector climbed to 51.5 during the reported month from 51.0 in May, while the Composite PMI advanced to 51.4 in June from 50.2 in May. This was the third straight month of growth in private sector activity and the fastest pace since February.Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve projected two rate cuts this year. However, Fed officials forecast only one 25-basis-points rate cut in each of 2026 and 2027 amid worries that the Trump administration's tariffs could push up consumer prices, which underpins the US Dollar. On the geopolitical front, the US joined Israel in the military action against Iran and bombed three nuclear sites on Sunday. The US launched 75 precision-guided munitions, including more than two dozen Tomahawk missiles, and more than 125 military aircraft in the operation.Moreover, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Iran against following through with past threats of retaliation. Adding to this, Vice President JD Vance said that the US was not at war with Iran but rather its nuclear program. Investors now await Iran's response to US strikes. USD/JPY could extend the positive move once the 100-day SMA hurdle is cleared From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair needs to make it through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) barrier around the 146.80 region for bulls to retain short-term control. Some follow-through buying beyond the 147.00 mark will confirm a positive outlook and lift spot prices to the 147.40-147.45 intermediate hurdle en route to the 148.00 round figure and 148.65 region, or the May monthly swing high.On the flip side, any corrective pullback below the 146.00 mark is more likely to attract fresh buyers and find decent support near the 145.30-145.25 area. This, in turn, should help limit the downside for the USD/JPY pair near the 145.00 psychological mark. The latter should act as a strong base for spot prices, which if broken decisively might prompt some technical selling and shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

05:24 Australian Dollar remains subdued following PMI data, eyes on Middle East conflict
The Australian Dollar (AUD) depreciated against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, extending its losses for the third successive session. The AUD/USD pair remains weaker amid dampened risk sentiment, driven by the escalating Middle East tension.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar depreciates as market sentiment weakens following US attacks on Iran's three nuclear facilities.Australia’s Services PMI improved to 51.3 in June from 50.6 prior, while the Composite PMI increased to 51.2 from 50.5.Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that the US central bank could start cutting interest rates as soon as next month.The Australian Dollar (AUD) depreciated against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, extending its losses for the third successive session. The AUD/USD pair remains weaker amid dampened risk sentiment, driven by the escalating Middle East tension.US President Donald Trump announced late Saturday that he had "obliterated" Iran's three nuclear facilities, including Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, in strikes overnight, in coordination with an Israeli assault. Iranian parliament approved a measure to close the strait. Iran has threatened to close the strait in the past but has never followed through on the move, per Reuters.S&P Global reported that the preliminary Australia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remained consistent at a 51.0 reading in June. Meanwhile, the Services PMI edged higher to 51.3 from the previous reading of 50.6, while the Composite PMI improved to 51.2 in June from 50.5 prior.Australian Dollar declines due to increased risk aversionThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is losing ground and trading at around 99.600 at the time of writing.Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller noted on Friday that the US central bank could start easing monetary policy as soon as next month, signaling flexibility amid global economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks.The US Fed decided to keep the interest rate steady at 4.5% in June as widely expected. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) still sees around 50 basis points of interest rate cuts through the end of 2025. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that ongoing policy uncertainty will keep the Fed in a rate-hold stance, and any rate cuts will be contingent on further improvement in labor and inflation data.The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) decided to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Friday. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.China Retail Sales rose 6.4% year-over-year in May, surpassing the 5.0% expected and April’s 5.1% increase. Meanwhile, Industrial Production increased 5.8% YoY, but came in below the 5.9% forecast and 6.1% prior.Moreover, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in China noted that the domestic economy is expected to have remained generally stable for the first half (H1) of 2025. However, economic growth in China may struggle since the second quarter due to uncertain trade policies.Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday that Employment Change fell by 2.5K in May against an 87.6K increase in April (revised from 89K) and the consensus forecast of a 25K rise. Furthermore, the Unemployment Rate steadied at 4.1% in May, as expected.Australian Dollar moves below 50-day EMA near 0.6500AUD/USD is trading around 0.6430 on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily shows the pair has broken below the ascending channel pattern, which could cause the emergence of a bearish bias. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved below the 50 mark, strengthening the bearish bias. The pair is falling below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term price momentum is weaker.On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may test the “throwback support” around the psychological level of 0.6400. A break below this level may prompt the pair to navigate the region around 0.5914, the lowest level since March 2020.The primary barrier appears at the 50-day EMA of 0.6432, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6450. A successful rebound to the channel would revive the bullish bias and support the pair to test the nine-day EMA at 0.6474. A break above this level would reinforce the bullish sentiment and lead the AUD/USD pair to approach the seven-month high of 0.6552, which was recorded on June 16.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.36% -0.20% -0.13% -0.01% 0.06% -0.00% 0.09% EUR 0.36% 0.13% 0.27% 0.36% 0.38% 0.36% 0.42% GBP 0.20% -0.13% 0.16% 0.23% 0.25% 0.23% 0.29% JPY 0.13% -0.27% -0.16% 0.10% 0.16% 0.18% 0.14% CAD 0.00% -0.36% -0.23% -0.10% 0.11% 0.00% 0.06% AUD -0.06% -0.38% -0.25% -0.16% -0.11% -0.04% 0.04% NZD 0.00% -0.36% -0.23% -0.18% -0.00% 0.04% 0.06% CHF -0.09% -0.42% -0.29% -0.14% -0.06% -0.04% -0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator S&P Global Composite PMI The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in Australia for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the Australian private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for AUD. Read more. Last release: Sun Jun 22, 2025 23:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: 51.2 Consensus: - Previous: 50.5 Source: S&P Global

04:53 GBP/USD extends downside to near 1.3400 as US enters Israel-Iran war
The GBP/USD pair extends the decline to around 1.3405 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The fears that Iran would retaliate against US attacks on its nuclear sites boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the US Dollar (USD).

04:18 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1710 vs. 7.1695 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1710 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1695 and 7.1914 Reuters estimate.

04:04 WTI trades higher around $75.50 after US attacks three Iranian nuclear sites
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price trades around $75.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Monday after pulling back from a five-month high of $76.74.

03:55 USD/CAD holds steady above mid-1.3700s, over one-month high amid mixed cues
The USD/CAD pair opens with a modest bullish gap at the start of a new week and touches a fresh monthly high, levels beyond mid-1.3700s during the Asian session.

03:51 EUR/USD loses traction below 1.1500 after US attacks Iran
The EUR/USD pair softens to around 1.1480 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Greenback edges higher against the Euro (EUR) as US President Donald Trump’s decision to join Israel’s war against Iran sharply escalates the conflict.

03:31 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI up to 51.5 in June from previous 51
Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI up to 51.5 in June from previous 51

03:31 Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4, above expectations (49.5) in June
Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4, above expectations (49.5) in June

03:25 Fed's Daly: Employment, inflation risks roughly in balance
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said on Friday that she sees the Fed’s monetary policy stance as “in a good place,” with risks to its US employment and price stability mandates as roughly equal, per Bloomberg.

02:57 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD edges higher above $3,350 as Middle East conflict escalates
The Gold price (XAU/USD) climbs to near $3,375 during the early Asian session on Monday. US President Donald Trump’s decision to join Israel’s war against Iran sharply escalates the conflict, which lifts the precious metal.

02:12 AUD/USD attracts some sellers below 0.6450 as US strikes Iran’s nuclear sites
The AUD/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 0.6440 during the early Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher amid the rising tensions in the Middle East after the United States (US) carried out airstrikes on three nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend.

02:03 Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI comes in at 51.0 in June, Services PMI rises to 51.3
The preliminary reading of Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 51.0 in June versus 51.0 prior, the latest data published by S&P Global showed on Monday.The S&P Global Australian Services PMI improved to 51.3 in June from the previous reading of 50.6, while

02:00 Australia S&P Global Composite PMI rose from previous 50.5 to 51.2 in June
Australia S&P Global Composite PMI rose from previous 50.5 to 51.2 in June

02:00 Australia S&P Global Services PMI: 51.3 (June) vs 50.6
Australia S&P Global Services PMI: 51.3 (June) vs 50.6

02:00 Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remains unchanged at 51 in June
Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remains unchanged at 51 in June

01:28 US inserts itself into Israel-Iran war and strikes Iranian nuclear sites - Bloomberg
The United States (US) carried out airstrikes on three nuclear sites in Iran early Sunday, directly entering Israel’s war with Iran despite US President Donald Trump’s longtime promises to avoid new foreign conflicts, per Bloomberg.

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Forex News Timeline

22:00 Argentina Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 5.8%, below expectations (6.1%) in 1Q Argentina Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 5.8%, below expectations (6.1%) in 1Q

21:28 Gold surges as Iran strikes US bases, Israel intensifies Tehran assault Gold prices remain bid during the North American session as breaking news revealed Iran’s attack on US bases in Qatar, in retaliation for the over-the-weekend attack on Iran's nuclear installations by the White House.

20:41 EUR/JPY hits fresh 11-month peak amid mixed Eurozone data and soft Yen The Euro (EUR) advances against the Japanese Yen (JPY) for a third consecutive day on Monday, hitting its highest level in nearly eleven months, as steady Euro demand and a persistently weak Yen fuel fresh buying.

20:22 WTI Crude Oil plunges as Iran reportedly fires missiles at US bases in Qatar WTI Crude Oil saw sharp intraday volatility on Monday, jumping to its highest level since January before reversing all its gains.

19:54 Dow Jones and other indexes pull back following reported Iran attack against US forces The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) pulled back from Monday's early gains after news outlets reported that accelerating Middle East conflicts took a turn early this week.

18:54 GBP/USD rebounds to 1.3500 as Fed’s Bowman backs July cut, Iran tensions flare The Pound Sterling advances during the North American session, up 0.37% against the US Dollar, as risk appetite improved amid developments in the Middle East. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3500.

17:10 Copper risk returns – TDS LME Copper convenience yields are now reflecting critically low inventories, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

17:00 United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) registered at 4.03M above expectations (3.96M) in May United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) registered at 4.03M above expectations (3.96M) in May

17:00 United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) registered at 0.8% above expectations (-1.3%) in May United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) registered at 0.8% above expectations (-1.3%) in May

17:00 United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) below forecasts (3.96M) in May: Actual (0.8M) United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) below forecasts (3.96M) in May: Actual (0.8M)

16:58 Oil prices rich despite no supply disruption – TDS Analyzing Risk of Disruptions to Strategic Chokepoints in the Middle East suggested crude oil pricing screened rich to historical analogs in the overnight session, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

16:45 United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above expectations (51) in June: Actual (52) United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above expectations (51) in June: Actual (52)

16:45 United States S&P Global Services PMI registered at 53.1 above expectations (52.9) in June United States S&P Global Services PMI registered at 53.1 above expectations (52.9) in June

16:45 United States S&P Global Composite PMI fell from previous 53 to 52.8 in June United States S&P Global Composite PMI fell from previous 53 to 52.8 in June

16:18 USD/CAD strengthens as Middle East tensions support Greenback USD/CAD is trading stronger on Monday, holding around 1.3780 after touching an intraday high of 1.3803 earlier in the session.

16:07 Lagarde speech: Risks to growth outlook remain tilted to downside While testifying before the European Parliament on Monday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said that survey data point to some weaker prospects for economic activity in the near term, per Reuters.

16:03 WH Economic Adviser Hassett: No reason for Fed to not cut rates now Kevin Hassett, Director of the United States (US) National Economic Council (NEC), said on Monday that there is no reason for the Federal Reserve to not cut rates now.

15:11 Gold pulls back as market digests US strikes on Iran, Strait of Hormuz risks linger Gold (XAU/USD) is trading in a tight range on Monday after the United States (US) carried out coordinated strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure over the weekend.

15:00 Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 4.3% to -2% in April Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 4.3% to -2% in April

15:00 Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) declined to -1% in April from previous 0.5% Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) declined to -1% in April from previous 0.5%

14:56 GBP a mid-performer vs. G10 – Scotiabank Pound Sterling (GBP) is weak and down 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD), a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

14:53 EUR soft, a mid-performer – Scotiabank The Euro (EUR) is weak, down 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

14:50 CAD strays further from fair value – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) ended last week on a soft note amid rising geo-political tensions and has eased a little further over the weekend to trade back to near 1.38, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

14:42 WTI Oil returns to levels above $74.50 as Middle East tensions remain high Crude Oil retreated from five-month highs at the $7750 area in the early Asian session, but downside attempts have been capped right above $73.00.

13:53 Japanese Yen weakens to five-week low as US strikes on Iran lift US Dollar safe-haven appeal The Japanese Yen (JPY) kicks off the week under pressure, stretching its losing streak to a third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday.

13:49 AUD/USD drops toward range support – Société Générale AUD/USD is under pressure after failing to break resistance at 0.6545, with the pair now testing key support levels that could determine the next leg of its trend, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

13:42 Brent tests channel top after strong rally – Société Générale Brent crude’s steep rally faces a key technical test as prices approach major resistance levels, with stretched momentum suggesting a possible near-term pullback, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

13:33 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds key 20-day EMA above $3,350, US-Iran tensions escalate Gold price (XAU/USD) exhibits a sluggish performance above $3,350 during European trading hours on Monday.

13:23 USD/CNH: Expected to trade in a 7.1750/7.1950 range – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a 7.1750/7.1950 range. In the longer run, USD has likely moved into a 7.1620/7.2200 range trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

13:08 Oil price shock and the US Dollar – Commerzbank US President Trump had signalled it, and now it has happened. The US government has joined in on Israel's attacks on Iran and, according to reports, destroyed important nuclear facilities.

12:54 AUD/USD: A move 0.6355 is very much possible – UOB Group A move to 0.6355 in the AUD/USD pair can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

12:42 USD/JPY: Eyes on 148.50 – OCBC USD/JPY jumped in response to geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. USD/JPY was last at 147.82 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

12:34 Kremlin: US strikes on Iran have increased the number of participants in the conflict The Kremlin said in a statement on Monday, “US strikes on Iran have increased the number of participants in the conflict and ushered in a new spiral of escalation.”

12:32 AUD/USD extends losses to one-month lows sub-0.6400 with risk appetite subdued The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar is one of the worst performers among major currencies on Monday.

12:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

12:22 Dow Jones futures steady despite US attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, PMI awaited Dow Jones futures have pared earlier losses and are now flat around 42,500, while E-mini S&P 500 futures trade higher near 6,030, up 11 points, after trimming gains during Monday’s European session.

11:35 UK Preliminary Services PMI rises to 51.3 in June vs. 51.3 expected The seasonally adjusted S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved to 47.7 in June from 46.4 in May. The data better the market forecast of 46.6 in the reported period.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (46.6) in June: Actual (47.7) United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (46.6) in June: Actual (47.7)

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI meets forecasts (51.3) in June United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI meets forecasts (51.3) in June

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI above forecasts (50.5) in June: Actual (50.7) United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI above forecasts (50.5) in June: Actual (50.7)

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.4, below expectations (49.8) in June Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.4, below expectations (49.8) in June

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI meets forecasts (50) in June Eurozone HCOB Services PMI meets forecasts (50) in June

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI registered at 50.2, below expectations (50.5) in June Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI registered at 50.2, below expectations (50.5) in June

10:51 Forex Today: Geopolitics overshadow data releases to start week Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 23:

10:32 German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI rises to 49 in June as expected The German manufacturing and services sectors contraction eased in June, the preliminary business activity report published by the HCOB survey showed on Monday.

10:30 Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 49.4 above expectations (47.5) in June Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 49.4 above expectations (47.5) in June

10:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI meets forecasts (49) in June Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI meets forecasts (49) in June

10:30 Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 50.4 above expectations (49) in June Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 50.4 above expectations (49) in June

10:27 USD/CHF trades with negative bias below 0.8200; remains confined in a familiar range The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers in the vicinity of the 0.8200 mark and slides to the lower end of a nearly one-week-old range during the early part of the European session on Monday.

10:15 France HCOB Services PMI came in at 48.7, below expectations (49.2) in June France HCOB Services PMI came in at 48.7, below expectations (49.2) in June

10:15 France HCOB Composite PMI registered at 48.5, below expectations (49.3) in June France HCOB Composite PMI registered at 48.5, below expectations (49.3) in June

10:15 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 47.8, below expectations (50) in June France HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 47.8, below expectations (50) in June

09:57 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Retains bullish bias near 198.00 The GBP/JPY cross trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day near 197.95 during the early European session on Monday.

09:02 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $74.71 per barrel, up from Friday’s close at $73.77.

08:55 EUR/GBP gathers strength above 0.8550 ahead of Eurozone/UK PMI releases The EUR/GBP cross trades in positive territory near 0.8570 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against the Euro (EUR) as UK Retail Sales declined more than expected in May.

08:19 FX option expiries for Jun 23 NY cut FX option expiries for Jun 23 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

08:07 USD/INR opens strongly as Indian Rupee is hit hard by global Oil supply risks The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a bearish note against the US Dollar (USD) and jumps to near 86.85 at the start of the week.

08:03 India HSBC Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 57.6 to 58.4 in June India HSBC Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 57.6 to 58.4 in June

08:01 India HSBC Services PMI: 60.7 (June) vs 58.8 India HSBC Services PMI: 60.7 (June) vs 58.8

08:01 India HSBC Composite PMI: 61 (June) vs 59.3 India HSBC Composite PMI: 61 (June) vs 59.3

08:01 Singapore Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.8) in May Singapore Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.8) in May

07:59 US Dollar Index (DXY) sticks to modest gains above 99.00, or nearly two-week high The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, opens with a modest bullish gap and hits a nearly two-week high during the Asian session on Monday.

07:57 WTI climbs above $74.50 as US strikes on Iran raise fears of supply disruption West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $74.80 during the Asian trading hours on Monday.

07:40 Gold price reverses Asian session uptick; downside seems limited amid rising Middle East tensions Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on its modest Asian session uptick and attracts fresh sellers in the vicinity of the $3,400 mark on Monday.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:07 USD/CHF remains subdued below 0.8200 due to increased safe-haven demand USD/CHF edges lower after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 0.8170 during the Asian hours on Monday.

06:00 NZD/USD struggles below mid-0.5900s/monthly low as traders await Iran’s response to US strikes The NZD/USD pair opens with a modest bearish gap at the start of a new week and moves further away from the year-to-date peak, around the 0.6100 neighborhood touched last Monday.

05:43 Japanese Yen slides to over one-month low against a firmer USD The Japanese Yen (JPY) kicks off the new week on a weaker note and drops to its lowest level since May 15 against a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session.

04:18 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1710 vs. 7.1695 previous On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1710 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1695 and 7.1914 Reuters estimate.

04:04 WTI trades higher around $75.50 after US attacks three Iranian nuclear sites West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price trades around $75.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Monday after pulling back from a five-month high of $76.74.

03:55 USD/CAD holds steady above mid-1.3700s, over one-month high amid mixed cues The USD/CAD pair opens with a modest bullish gap at the start of a new week and touches a fresh monthly high, levels beyond mid-1.3700s during the Asian session.

03:31 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI up to 51.5 in June from previous 51 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI up to 51.5 in June from previous 51

03:31 Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4, above expectations (49.5) in June Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4, above expectations (49.5) in June

02:00 Australia S&P Global Composite PMI rose from previous 50.5 to 51.2 in June Australia S&P Global Composite PMI rose from previous 50.5 to 51.2 in June

02:00 Australia S&P Global Services PMI: 51.3 (June) vs 50.6 Australia S&P Global Services PMI: 51.3 (June) vs 50.6

02:00 Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remains unchanged at 51 in June Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remains unchanged at 51 in June

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