ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex
23:43 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Sinks to a two-week low near 0’.8200 on safe-haven demand
USD/CHF continues to weaken as the downtrend extends past 0.8250 as the pair losses almost 1%. Investors seeking safety bought the Swiss Franc after US President Donald Trump threatened to enact tariffs of 50% on Europe and 25% on Apple’s iPhone manufactured overseas.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}Franc surges nearly 1% as Trump’s tariff threats trigger risk aversion and deepen the Dollar’s slide.USD/CHF breaks below 0.8250, nearing key support at May’s low of 0.8184.Bearish flag breakdown points to possible test of 2025 low at 0.8038.Traders pile into Swiss Franc as US protectionism and fiscal risks spook markets.USD/CHF continues to weaken as the downtrend extends past 0.8250 as the pair losses almost 1%. Investors seeking safety bought the Swiss Franc after US President Donald Trump threatened to enact tariffs of 50% on Europe and 25% on Apple’s iPhone manufactured overseas. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.8203, at new two-week lows.USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlookAs of writing, the USD/CHF is tilted to the downside after clearing the bottom fo a ‘bearish flag’ pattern, which indicates that the pair might test the current year-to-date (YTD) low of 0.8038.Momentum favors further downside, as USD/CHF has achieved a successive series of lower highs and lower lows, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining in bearish territory.On its way towards the YTD low, the USD/CHF must drop below 0.8200. A breach of the latter will expose May’s low of 0.8184, followed by 0.8100 and the 0.8050 mark.On the upside, buyers need to clear the May 22 peak of 0.8396, ahead of the 0.8350 and 0.8400.USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.58% -1.84% -1.90% -1.78% -1.42% -1.72% -1.86% EUR 1.58% -0.29% -0.28% -0.14% 0.29% -0.08% -0.28% GBP 1.84% 0.29% -0.27% 0.15% 0.58% 0.21% 0.00% JPY 1.90% 0.28% 0.27% 0.13% 0.65% 0.38% 0.09% CAD 1.78% 0.14% -0.15% -0.13% 0.37% 0.06% -0.14% AUD 1.42% -0.29% -0.58% -0.65% -0.37% -0.37% -0.56% NZD 1.72% 0.08% -0.21% -0.38% -0.06% 0.37% -0.20% CHF 1.86% 0.28% -0.01% -0.09% 0.14% 0.56% 0.20% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
Swiss Franc PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.58% -1.84% -1.90% -1.78% -1.42% -1.72% -1.86% EUR 1.58% -0.29% -0.28% -0.14% 0.29% -0.08% -0.28% GBP 1.84% 0.29% -0.27% 0.15% 0.58% 0.21% 0.00% JPY 1.90% 0.28% 0.27% 0.13% 0.65% 0.38% 0.09% CAD 1.78% 0.14% -0.15% -0.13% 0.37% 0.06% -0.14% AUD 1.42% -0.29% -0.58% -0.65% -0.37% -0.37% -0.56% NZD 1.72% 0.08% -0.21% -0.38% -0.06% 0.37% -0.20% CHF 1.86% 0.28% -0.01% -0.09% 0.14% 0.56% 0.20% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
23:22 US yields slide as Trump tariff threats rattle markets, fuel ‘Sell America’ trend
US Treasury yields fall across the whole curve following Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on Apple’s iPhones not manufactured in the US and duties on European imports. At the time of writing, the US 10-year Treasury note yield is down two basis points at 4.509%.
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Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
23:08 Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions fell from previous $-49.3K to $-59.1K
Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions fell from previous $-49.3K to $-59.1K
23:08 United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $164K vs $161.2K
United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $164K vs $161.2K
23:08 United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions increased to 186.4K from previous 185.3K
United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions increased to 186.4K from previous 185.3K
23:08 United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions down to £24K from previous £27.2K
United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions down to £24K from previous £27.2K
23:08 Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions dipped from previous ¥172.3K to ¥167.3K
Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions dipped from previous ¥172.3K to ¥167.3K
23:08 United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions climbed from previous $-122.2K to $-96.6K
United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions climbed from previous $-122.2K to $-96.6K
23:08 Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions dipped from previous €84.8K to €74.5K
Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions dipped from previous €84.8K to €74.5K
22:56 Canadian Dollar soars as markets pull away from Greenback on Friday
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) caught a huge boost from market-wide Greenback weakness on Friday. The Loonie climbed over a full percent against the waffling US Dollar (USD) following a fresh batch of eerily-familiar-looking tariff threats from United States (US) President Donald Trump.
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Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
22:44 NZD/USD surges toward 0.6000 amid resilient Retail Sales figures and USD weakness
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, buoyed by positive Retail Sales data and a weaker Greenback.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}New Zealand Dollar surges as Retail Sales and US Dollar weakness drive gains.Trump’s 50% tariff threat on EU imports adds to diminishing growth prospects for the US economy, fueling USD outflows.NZD/USD rises toward 0.6000 with markets looking ahead to Fed Powell’s speech scheduled for Sunday.The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, buoyed by positive Retail Sales data and a weaker Greenback.At the time of writing, NZD/USD is heading toward 0.6000, with intraday gains of 1.50% resulting in a clear break of the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) that provides support at 0.5928.Thursday’s release of New Zealand's first quarter Retail Sales, rising by 0.8% in Q1, came above analyst estimates of a 0.1% increase. The upside surprise reflected stable consumer spending growth, providing a positive shift in NZD sentiment. Additionally, the New Zealand Treasury released its updated budget forecasts that showed expectations for the deficit for the 2025/2026 fiscal year to rise by 1.3%, below prior forecasts of 1.9%.For the United States, US President Donald Trump's proposal for a 50% tariff charge on imports of goods from the European Union (EU) resulted in an increase in USD outflows, fueling US Dollar weakness.As speakers of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained a hawkish stance, raising expectations that the Fed will maintain interest rates at the current 4.25%-4.50% range at the upcoming June and July meetings, the economic outlook for the US remains uncertain. While the Fed is expected to cut rates in September, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will provide his remarks on Sunday, providing potential insight into rate expectations amid the current economic backdrop. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
22:36 EUR/USD rebounds back above 1.1300 after Trump tariffs shock sparks volatility
EUR/USD recovered during the mid-North American session on Friday after diving below 1.1300 after US President Donald Trump rattled the markets by threatening to impose 50% tariffs on the European Union (EU). At the time of writing, the pair recovered and climbed to around 1.1350
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At the time of writing, the pair recovered and climbed to around 1.1350US President Donald Trump posted on his social network early Friday that discussions with the European Union “are going nowhere! Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025,” he wrote. The EUR/USD fell to 1.1296 on the remarks before the uptrend resumed.Following those remarks, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that “EU proposals have not been of good quality,” adding that “Most countries are negotiating in good faith, except the EU.”The Greenback remains on the back foot, weighed down by the approval of Trump’s tax bill in the House of Representatives, which is on its way to the Senate. If passed, the proposal would add close to $4 trillion to the US debt ceiling over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).It is worth noting that the US Dollar remains unreactive to Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers, who so far have said the US Treasury market is working orderly, adding that uncertainty about supply chains, inventory and inflation keeps business executives unaware of the future.The US economic docket featured US housing data in May, which was mixed as Building Permits fell, but New Home Sales improved in April.In the Eurozone, Germany's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) improved yearly, though it remained in contractionary territory.In the meantime, the Euro shrugged off speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower interest rates at the upcoming meeting. ECB’s Rehn and Stournaras favor a rate cut in June, with the latter supporting a pause after that meeting.EUR/USD daily market movers: the Euro favored by “sell America” trendThe Euro remains favored by overall US Dollar weakness. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of six currencies against the American Dollar, tumbled 0.79% at 99.10, its lowest level since April 29.The “sell America” trend continues with investors selling off bonds, US equities and the US Dollar. It was ignited by US President Donald Trump's “trade war” and Moody’s downgrade of US government debt from AAA to AA1.The US schedule featured Building Permits, which fell by 4% MoM in April, declining from 1.481 million to 1.422 million, signaling a slowdown in future construction activity.New Home Sales surged 10.9% MoM, rising from 0.67 million to 0.743 million, according to the US Census Bureau. This reflects strong demand in the housing market despite tighter supply conditions.Germany’s economy grew in Q1 2025, exceeding estimates due to exports and industry frontloading ahead of US tariffs. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) improved from 0.2% to 0.4% QoQ.EUR/USD technical outlook: Set to challenge 1.1400 in the near termThe EUR/USD uptrend resumed on Friday, with the pair reaching a two-week high of 1.1375 as traders brace for challenging 1.1400. Buyers are gathering steam as the pair registered the highest high and low during the last five days, and further confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which trends up ahead of turning overbought.If EUR/USD clears 1.1400, it would pave the way for testing key resistance levels, like 1.1450, followed by the 1.1500 mark and the year-to-date (YTD) high at 1.1573.Conversely, if EUR/USD falls below 1.1300, the pair could test the May 22 low of 1.1255, ahead of 1.1200. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
22:28 US Dollar Index dives to two-week low on Trump’s tariff threats and fiscal jitters
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, slumps sharply on Friday, down over 1.8% for the week after posting a modest gain on Thursday to trade around 99.10 near a two-week low, ahead of the weekend.
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DXY tumbles below 99.20, down 1.8% for the week amid broad risk-off sentiment.Trump threatens 50% tariffs on EU goods, 25% on Apple products made overseas.Markets eye upcoming FOMC Minutes, GDP, and core PCE data for policy signals.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, slumps sharply on Friday, down over 1.8% for the week after posting a modest gain on Thursday to trade around 99.10 near a two-week low, ahead of the weekend. Although the US Dollar was already facing headwinds due to lingering trade tensions and growing concerns around the US fiscal outlook, the renewed weakness on Friday comes in response to US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric as he threatened to impose 50% tariffs on all goods sent to United States from the European Union (EU) and floated a 25% tariff ‘at least’ on Apple products manufactured abroad. The threats reignited fears of an escalating trade war and added to risk-off sentiment in global markets.The threats in the form of social media posts came just hours before high-level trade talks were scheduled between Washington and Brussels. Trump had initially imposed a 20% tariff on most EU goods last month but temporarily halved the levy to 10% until July 8 to provide space for negotiations."Our discussions with them are going nowhere!" Trump wrote in a post on social media on Friday. He said the new tariffs would kick in on 1 June.This aggressive stance is expected to decrease 20% of exports from the EU to the US, according to estimates by the Kiel Institute.Looking ahead, market participants will focus on commentary from Fed officials, as well as the FOMC Meeting Minutes, preliminary Q1 GDP, core PCE price index, personal income and spending, durable goods orders, and the goods trade balance for fresh cues on the US economic outlook and monetary policy direction. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.70% -0.84% -1.04% -0.98% -1.32% -1.48% -0.98% EUR 0.70% -0.14% -0.36% -0.28% -0.61% -0.77% -0.26% GBP 0.84% 0.14% -0.19% -0.13% -0.44% -0.63% -0.12% JPY 1.04% 0.36% 0.19% 0.08% -0.28% -0.44% 0.08% CAD 0.98% 0.28% 0.13% -0.08% -0.36% -0.49% 0.01% AUD 1.32% 0.61% 0.44% 0.28% 0.36% -0.15% 0.36% NZD 1.48% 0.77% 0.63% 0.44% 0.49% 0.15% 0.51% CHF 0.98% 0.26% 0.12% -0.08% -0.01% -0.36% -0.51% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
DXY tumbles below 99.20, down 1.8% for the week amid broad risk-off sentiment.Trump threatens 50% tariffs on EU goods, 25% on Apple products made overseas.Markets eye upcoming FOMC Minutes, GDP, and core PCE data for policy signals.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, slumps sharply on Friday, down over 1.8% for the week after posting a modest gain on Thursday to trade around 99.10 near a two-week low, ahead of the weekend. Although the US Dollar was already facing headwinds due to lingering trade tensions and growing concerns around the US fiscal outlook, the renewed weakness on Friday comes in response to US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric as he threatened to impose 50% tariffs on all goods sent to United States from the European Union (EU) and floated a 25% tariff ‘at least’ on Apple products manufactured abroad. The threats reignited fears of an escalating trade war and added to risk-off sentiment in global markets.The threats in the form of social media posts came just hours before high-level trade talks were scheduled between Washington and Brussels. Trump had initially imposed a 20% tariff on most EU goods last month but temporarily halved the levy to 10% until July 8 to provide space for negotiations."Our discussions with them are going nowhere!" Trump wrote in a post on social media on Friday. He said the new tariffs would kick in on 1 June.This aggressive stance is expected to decrease 20% of exports from the EU to the US, according to estimates by the Kiel Institute.Looking ahead, market participants will focus on commentary from Fed officials, as well as the FOMC Meeting Minutes, preliminary Q1 GDP, core PCE price index, personal income and spending, durable goods orders, and the goods trade balance for fresh cues on the US economic outlook and monetary policy direction. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.70% -0.84% -1.04% -0.98% -1.32% -1.48% -0.98% EUR 0.70% -0.14% -0.36% -0.28% -0.61% -0.77% -0.26% GBP 0.84% 0.14% -0.19% -0.13% -0.44% -0.63% -0.12% JPY 1.04% 0.36% 0.19% 0.08% -0.28% -0.44% 0.08% CAD 0.98% 0.28% 0.13% -0.08% -0.36% -0.49% 0.01% AUD 1.32% 0.61% 0.44% 0.28% 0.36% -0.15% 0.36% NZD 1.48% 0.77% 0.63% 0.44% 0.49% 0.15% 0.51% CHF 0.98% 0.26% 0.12% -0.08% -0.01% -0.36% -0.51% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
22:05 President Trump adds Samsung to his wishlist of tariffs targeting individual companies
During statements made to the press during his weekly Executive Order signing, United States (US) President Donald Trump added further tariff commentary, though not necessarily clarity, to his social media posts earlier on Friday.
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During statements made to the press during his weekly Executive Order signing, United States (US) President Donald Trump added further tariff commentary, though not necessarily clarity, to his social media posts earlier on Friday.Key highlightsWe're talking about big plants. The tech has come a long way in safety and cost.
We need tremendous electricity.
Talks with the EU are slow-moving.
(On his new 50% tariff threat against the EU): I'm not looking for a deal, it's set at 50%.
I could talk about delays to EU tariffs if they start moving plants to the US.
We have numerous other deals ready to be signed.
(On his proposed 25% tariff targeted at Apple (AAPL) products specifically: It'll be more, it will be Samsung too.
If Apple and Samsung build a plant in the US, no tariff.
Cook said he’d go to India, but there'd still be tariffs that way.
If they're selling in the US, it needs to be built in the US.
I don't want the consumer to pay the tariffs. Tariffs are helping, not hurting.
Some products the US doesn't want to make, they're better elsewhere.Market reactionInvestors barely blinked at the continued lack of clarity on President Trump's new wave of tariff rhetoric, having already sold and recovered throughout the market session on trade headlines. Markets are heading into the weekend close prepped for a three-day weekend, leaving the US Dollar Index (DXY) to sink into the bottom end near 99.00. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
We need tremendous electricity.
Talks with the EU are slow-moving.
(On his new 50% tariff threat against the EU): I'm not looking for a deal, it's set at 50%.
I could talk about delays to EU tariffs if they start moving plants to the US.
We have numerous other deals ready to be signed.
(On his proposed 25% tariff targeted at Apple (AAPL) products specifically: It'll be more, it will be Samsung too.
If Apple and Samsung build a plant in the US, no tariff.
Cook said he’d go to India, but there'd still be tariffs that way.
If they're selling in the US, it needs to be built in the US.
I don't want the consumer to pay the tariffs. Tariffs are helping, not hurting.
Some products the US doesn't want to make, they're better elsewhere.Market reactionInvestors barely blinked at the continued lack of clarity on President Trump's new wave of tariff rhetoric, having already sold and recovered throughout the market session on trade headlines. Markets are heading into the weekend close prepped for a three-day weekend, leaving the US Dollar Index (DXY) to sink into the bottom end near 99.00. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
21:42 WTI Crude Oil trades above $61.00 with prices consolidating in a tight range
Crude oil prices have rebounded on Friday, allowing prices to erase Thursday’s losses.
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Currently, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is positioned just below at 60.419, while the 10-day SMA offers immediate resistance near 61.805. Prices are currently fluctuating within a narrow range defined by these SMA levels, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading at 49.00, indicating neutral momentum.WTI Crude Oil daily chartWith various fundamental factors influencing oil prices, technical challenges exist on both the upside and downside. For the uptrend to gain momentum, a strong bullish movement above the 10-day SMA and a breakout above the next psychological barrier at 62.000 are necessary. If that level is surpassed, the 50-day SMA at 63.270 could pave the way for a test of the 38.2% retracement level for the year-to-date decline, which stands at 64.179.Conversely, if sellers manage to push prices below 60.588 and the 20-day SMA, the April 10 low at 58.376 and the year-to-date low of 54.785 may come into play. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
21:40 Dow Jones Industrial Average declines on Friday as fresh tariff threats emerge
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) saw stiff losses during the Friday market session The major equity index declined 780 points top-to-bottom and tapped 41,200 before a slow crawl back to the 41,750 region.
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United States (US) President Donald Trump sent markets into a backslide after announcing his intent, or at least desire, to impose import taxes on a specific company, the first time the President has targeted a single business entity for tariffs. Donald Trump followed up with a fresh threat of tariffs on European trading partners after his previous bout of walked-back tariff threats against Europe produced little in the way of results. Trump came out of the gate swinging on Friday, declaring his belief that Apple (AAPL) products should be subject to a 25% tax, and also stating that trade talks with the European Union (EU) are “going nowhere”, and 'recommended' via social media proclamation that the US should impose an across-the-board tariff of 50% on all European goods to begin on June 1. The White House was quick to follow up on President Trump’s social media posting, stating that the President’s direct statements are not necessarily a declaration of official government intent or policy.Tariff threats and trade ambiguity back on the menuPolicy uncertainty, rather than the tariff threats themselves, is likely the thorn in investors’ side on Friday. As noted by Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management:“Given the number of times Trump has retreated on these sort of threats, markets are likely to place only a limited amount of weight on this stance; but it is a reminder of the policy uncertainty that persists in the United States at the moment.”Paul Donovan followed up by noting that the most recent tariff suspension by the Trump administration was only a 90-day temporary fix, and even the threat of a return to high import fees could jostle investor confidence once again. The US’s “reciprocal tariff package” that was announced on April 2 is set to come back into effect on July 1 unless trade deals with key countries are finalized before that date, a feat of diplomacy the Trump administration officials appear unable or unwilling to deliver.Next week will be a shorter trading week with a US holiday on the cards for Monday. However, a scheduled speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell on Sunday could set the tone for the first half of the week’s docket before the meeting minutes from the last Fed rate call are released on Wednesday.Read more stock news: Apple stock sinks after Trump threatens more tariffsDow Jones price forecastFriday’s fresh bullish plunge has pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average back into the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as the post-tariff suspension recovery looks set to end. The Dow Jones is in the red for not only Friday, but also the week as well as the year, down around 2% from January’s opening bids.Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones 5-minute chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
Dow Jones 5-minute chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
21:12 GBP/USD surges past 1.3500 to a three-year high on strong UK Retail Sales, weak US Dollar
The British Pound (GBP) rises sharply against the US Dollar (USD) to its highest level in three years on Friday.
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GBP/USD breaks above 1.3500 and trades near 1.3538, the highest level since February 2022.UK Retail Sales jump 1.2% MoM and 5% YoY in April, beating forecasts.USD weakens broadly amid renewed Trump tariff threats and fiscal worries.The British Pound (GBP) rises sharply against the US Dollar (USD) to its highest level in three years on Friday. The pair has broadly traded on the front foot over the last five days, with GBP/USD breaking above 1.3500 to trade around 1.3538, up nearly 0.80% at the time of writing during the American session. The surge in spot prices is mainly attributed to a broad-based weak US Dollar and a stronger-than-expected United Kingdom’s (UK) Retail Sales data. The latest economic data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the Retail Sales increased by 1.2% MoM in April, sharply beating the 0.2% forecast and rebounding strongly from the downwardly revised 0.1% gain in March. On an annual basis, Retail Sales climbed 5%, accelerating from March’s 2.6% gain and well above the market consensus of 4.5%.The upbeat Retail Sales figure portrays a resilient UK consumer base, despite the ongoing global economic uncertainty around US tariffs. On the other hand, the latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures released on Thursday presented a mixed view of the UK economy, with the United Kingdom’s (UK) S&P Global Composite PMI rising to 49.4 from 48.5 in April, indicating a slower pace of contraction in private-sector activity. The services sector returned to expansion territory, with the Services PMI increasing to 50.2 from 49.0, while manufacturing remained in contraction, as the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 45.1 from 45.4.That said, inflation data released on Wednesday showed that headline and core Consumer Price Index(CPI) accelerated. The Headline CPI rose by 3.5% and core CPI increased by 3.8% from 3.4% in March.Combining all the latest economic data presents a mixed but broadly resilient macro picture as price pressures remain elevated, even as growth momentum shows early signs of recovery, which could make the case for the Bank of England (BoE) to hold the interest rate unchanged at its next meeting."With sticky inflation and growth ticking along, it's getting harder to see interest rates falling quickly," said Neil Birrell, Chief Investment Officer at Premier Miton Investors, an asset management company.On the other hand, the US Dollar remains subdued with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling to near 99.00 at the time of writing as President Donald Trump reignited global trade tensions, targeting both Apple and the European Union with threats of new tariffs. Trump proposed a 50% tariff on EU imports starting June 1, citing stalled negotiations, adding to a risk-off mood already driven by US fiscal instability. British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.76% -0.86% -1.04% -1.03% -1.36% -1.52% -0.99% EUR 0.76% -0.10% -0.29% -0.27% -0.59% -0.75% -0.22% GBP 0.86% 0.10% -0.17% -0.17% -0.46% -0.64% -0.11% JPY 1.04% 0.29% 0.17% 0.03% -0.32% -0.47% 0.07% CAD 1.03% 0.27% 0.17% -0.03% -0.35% -0.48% 0.05% AUD 1.36% 0.59% 0.46% 0.32% 0.35% -0.15% 0.39% NZD 1.52% 0.75% 0.64% 0.47% 0.48% 0.15% 0.54% CHF 0.99% 0.22% 0.11% -0.07% -0.05% -0.39% -0.54% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
GBP/USD breaks above 1.3500 and trades near 1.3538, the highest level since February 2022.UK Retail Sales jump 1.2% MoM and 5% YoY in April, beating forecasts.USD weakens broadly amid renewed Trump tariff threats and fiscal worries.The British Pound (GBP) rises sharply against the US Dollar (USD) to its highest level in three years on Friday. The pair has broadly traded on the front foot over the last five days, with GBP/USD breaking above 1.3500 to trade around 1.3538, up nearly 0.80% at the time of writing during the American session. The surge in spot prices is mainly attributed to a broad-based weak US Dollar and a stronger-than-expected United Kingdom’s (UK) Retail Sales data. The latest economic data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the Retail Sales increased by 1.2% MoM in April, sharply beating the 0.2% forecast and rebounding strongly from the downwardly revised 0.1% gain in March. On an annual basis, Retail Sales climbed 5%, accelerating from March’s 2.6% gain and well above the market consensus of 4.5%.The upbeat Retail Sales figure portrays a resilient UK consumer base, despite the ongoing global economic uncertainty around US tariffs. On the other hand, the latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures released on Thursday presented a mixed view of the UK economy, with the United Kingdom’s (UK) S&P Global Composite PMI rising to 49.4 from 48.5 in April, indicating a slower pace of contraction in private-sector activity. The services sector returned to expansion territory, with the Services PMI increasing to 50.2 from 49.0, while manufacturing remained in contraction, as the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 45.1 from 45.4.That said, inflation data released on Wednesday showed that headline and core Consumer Price Index(CPI) accelerated. The Headline CPI rose by 3.5% and core CPI increased by 3.8% from 3.4% in March.Combining all the latest economic data presents a mixed but broadly resilient macro picture as price pressures remain elevated, even as growth momentum shows early signs of recovery, which could make the case for the Bank of England (BoE) to hold the interest rate unchanged at its next meeting."With sticky inflation and growth ticking along, it's getting harder to see interest rates falling quickly," said Neil Birrell, Chief Investment Officer at Premier Miton Investors, an asset management company.On the other hand, the US Dollar remains subdued with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling to near 99.00 at the time of writing as President Donald Trump reignited global trade tensions, targeting both Apple and the European Union with threats of new tariffs. Trump proposed a 50% tariff on EU imports starting June 1, citing stalled negotiations, adding to a risk-off mood already driven by US fiscal instability. British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.76% -0.86% -1.04% -1.03% -1.36% -1.52% -0.99% EUR 0.76% -0.10% -0.29% -0.27% -0.59% -0.75% -0.22% GBP 0.86% 0.10% -0.17% -0.17% -0.46% -0.64% -0.11% JPY 1.04% 0.29% 0.17% 0.03% -0.32% -0.47% 0.07% CAD 1.03% 0.27% 0.17% -0.03% -0.35% -0.48% 0.05% AUD 1.36% 0.59% 0.46% 0.32% 0.35% -0.15% 0.39% NZD 1.52% 0.75% 0.64% 0.47% 0.48% 0.15% 0.54% CHF 0.99% 0.22% 0.11% -0.07% -0.05% -0.39% -0.54% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
20:01 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count registered at 465, below expectations (473)
United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count registered at 465, below expectations (473)
19:55 Fed's Cook: Bond markets were 'orderly' in April, but seeing rising stress in households
Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Dr.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Dr. Lisa Cook noted on Friday during a hosted event at New York University that while US economic factors were strong during the first quarter, Fed policymakers are beginning to see signs of stress in key industries, namely housing and commercial real estate.Dr. Cook also highlighted that Treasury markets were orderly and functional during April's trade-related volatility, but stopped short of saying that bond market functionality may begin to suffer at the hands of inconsistent policy management from the White House.Key Cook highlightsAccording to Dr. Cook, a "sufficiently large income shock could push up defaults, lead to losses for lenders." Fed BoG member Dr. Cook avoided outright stating what a large income shock might look like, but lately, Fedspeak has been notably tilted toward inflationary and downside employment pressures from lopsided trade policies from the Trump administration.Dr. Cook admitted that she is "watching commercial real estate closely," and acknowledged that she is also beginning to see signs of balance sheet stress among low-to-moderate income households.Market reactionThe Fed's Dr. Cook didn't reveal much that wasn't already known to investors, and market-wide positioning remains largely unchanged on the day as US investors gear up for a long weekend. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is sharply lower on Friday, down near 99.20 as of writing. The Greenback is down across the board heading into the weekend, floundering against the Euro (EUR), the Pound Sterling (GBP), and the Canadian Dollar(CAD), with steep losses stacked up in the Antipodeans, the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand Kiwi (NZD).(TradingView forex heatmap, 1D timeframe)
19:49 EUR/GBP consolidates on positive UK Retail Sales and Trump’s EU tariff threat
The Euro (EUR) is trading in a tight range against the British Pound (GBP) after Friday’s positive UK Retail Sales data and a resurgence of tariff uncertainty contributed to global risk sentiment.
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19:46 Gold price soars nearly 2% as Trump targets EU with tariff threats
Gold's price uptrend resumed on Friday, with the yellow metal rising close to 2% daily and 5% in the week, as the US Dollar (USD) weakened further after US President Donald Trump escalated the ‘trade war’ with the European Union (EU).
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This and investors' woes regarding the US fiscal stance propel bullion prices higher, with XAU/USD trading at $3,359 after bouncing off a daily low of $3,287.Before Wall Street opened, Trump said that discussions with the EU “are going nowhere” while threatening to impose 50% tariffs on the EU’s imports on June 1. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also commented, “The president believes that the EU proposals have not been of the same quality that we’ve seen from our other important trading partners.”Meanwhile, Bullion was boosted by the passage of Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ at the US House of Representatives, which would add close to $4 trillion to the US debt ceiling. The bill will next be passed to the Senate for its approval.In the geopolitical front, the Russian Foreign Minister said the work on the memorandum leading to a ceasefire in Ukraine is advanced. Meanwhile,the US and Iran concluded on Friday a fifth round of negotiations in Rome over Tehran’s advancing nuclear program.Data-wise, US housing data in May was mixed as Building Permits collapsed, but New Home Sales improved in April. In the meantime, a flurry of Fed speakers, led by St. Louis Fed Alberto Musalem and Chicago's Fed Austan Goolsbee, crossed the news wires.Next week, the US economic docket will feature Durable Goods Orders, the release of the Fed’s last meeting minutes, the second estimate of GDP, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.Gold daily market movers: Skyrockets amid risk-aversion spurred by Trump’s commentsUS Treasury bond yields halted their advance, with the 10-year Treasury note yield falling almost three basis points (bps) to 4.505%. Meanwhile, US real yields are also down 2.4 bps to 2.165%.Gold price outlook is optimistic, given the fragile market mood toward US assets sparked by the growing fiscal deficit in the United States, which ignited Moody’s downgrade of US government debt from AAA to AA1.The fiscal package approved by the US lower house is projected to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, sinks over 0.66%, down at 99.24, a tailwind for the Dollar-denominated precious metal.US Building Permits in April dipped from 1.481 million to 1.422 million for a loss of 4% MoM. Contrarily, New Home Sales for the same period increased by 10.9% MoM from 0.67 million to 0.743 million, revealed the US Census Bureau.St. Louis Fed Musalem said that companies are struggling to figure out how to manage uncertainty about supply chains, inventory and inflation. Meanwhile, Chicago's Fed Goolsbee said the Fed needs to wait for the dust to clear, the bar for action is higher until it happens.Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 49.5 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data.XAU/USD technical outlook: Jumps above $3,350 as uptrend resumesGold price extended its gains, poised to test the $3,400 figure in the near term. Bullish momentum remains strong, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which aims upwards with enough room before turning overbought.That said, XAU/USD's first resistance is $3,400, the May 7 swing high at $3,438, followed by $3,450 and the all-time high (ATH) at $3,500.On the bearish side, if Gold drops below $3,300, expect a move to the May 20 daily low of $3,204, ahead of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,199. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
19:31 AUD/USD eyes breakout above 0.6500 amid weak US Dollar
The Australian Dollar (AUD) pushes higher against the US Dollar (USD), reaching a fresh weekly high near 0.6480 on Friday, up more than 1.20% on the day.
The Australian Dollar hits a fresh weekly high near 0.6480, up over 1.20% on the day.The 0.6500 psychological level and descending trendline continue to act as key resistance.AUD/USD holds firmly above the 21-day EMA at 0.6414, reinforcing short-term bullish bias.The Australian Dollar (AUD) pushes higher against the US Dollar (USD), reaching a fresh weekly high near 0.6480 on Friday, up more than 1.20% on the day. The AUD/USD pair is gaining ground amid broad-based US Dollar weakness and resilient risk sentiment, but despite the bullish tone, the pair remains trapped within a tight range. The upside faces strong resistance from a descending trendline and the 0.6500 psychological barrier, a level that has repeatedly capped gains this month.
At the same time, the Aussie is drawing additional strength from encouraging signals on the global trade front. China’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that Beijing and Washington have agreed to maintain open communication channels following a high-level diplomatic exchange.
From a technical standpoint, price action over the past few weeks has taken the shape of a bullish pennant, a technical chart pattern that often signals continuation after a strong upside move. This pattern comes on the back of the pair’s sharp rebound from April’s low near the 0.5900 psychological mark. The choppy price action in recent days suggests that bulls are cautious before placing fresh bets.
The buyers have managed to keep the pair above the 0.6400 round figure, a former resistance turned support, which closely coincides with the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6414. AUD/USD has consistently held above this key support throughout May, indicating buyers are still in control. The price has been tightening within converging trendlines, and a breakout above the upper boundary of the pennant around the 0.6480–0.6500 region could be the catalyst for a move toward the 0.6550 level not seen since November 2024.
Strengthening the case for further gains, Momentum indicators add further weight to the bullish setup. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding firm above the neutral 50 level, currently at 57.3, suggesting that bullish momentum is building but still has room to reach the overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also leaning in favor of further gains. The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, and the histogram is positive, both classic signs of rising upward pressure.
Overall, as long as the pair remains supported above the 21-day EMA and the lower trendline of the pennant, the technical outlook remains constructive. A clean break above the 0.6500 psychological barrier would likely trigger fresh buying and set the stage for a rally toward 0.6550 and beyond. On the downside, a drop below 0.6400 would put the bullish scenario on pause and expose the pair to a deeper pullback. For now, however, the price structure, trend bias, and momentum all point to the potential breakout of the pennant for further upside in the coming days.
18:00 Mexico Accumulated Current Account/GDP: 1.8% (1Q) vs previous 2.87%
Mexico Accumulated Current Account/GDP: 1.8% (1Q) vs previous 2.87%
18:00 Mexico Current Account, $ (QoQ) registered at $-7613M above expectations ($-18050M) in 1Q
Mexico Current Account, $ (QoQ) registered at $-7613M above expectations ($-18050M) in 1Q
17:57 USD/CAD tumbles to two-week low after five-day sell-off
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens further against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, marking a five-day rally.
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USD/CAD extends five-day losing streak, down nearly 1.30% this weekCanadian Retail Sales rise 0.8% in March, excluding autos it hit -0.7%.The US Dollar sinks to a two-week low amid fiscal concerns and stalled trade talks.The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens further against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, marking a five-day rally. The USD/CAD is down nearly 1.30% this week, with the pair slipping below the 1.3800 psychological mark to trade near a two-week low as traders reacted to mixed Retail Sales data from Canada.The Loonie pair was already under pressure earlier in the day due to a broadly weak US Dollar, ahead of the Canadian Retail Sales release. The pair dropped further after the latest figures released by Statistics Canada revealed a stronger-than-expected 0.8% rise in Retail Sales for March, beating the market forecast of 0.7% and a solid rebound from February’s downwardly revised -0.5% drop. However, Retail Sales ex Autos surprised to the downside, printing at -0.7% in March from February’s 0.6% gain.These Retail Sales figures suggest that consumer spending is on a downward trajectory when auto sales are excluded, but remains resilient overall.Reacting to the data, Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said, “Canadian consumers haven’t tightened the purse strings much, it seems in the face of tariff uncertainty.”The Canadian Dollar (CAD) also draws support amid a broad-based weakness in the USD. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six major currencies, slipped to a two-week low to trade near 99.40 during the start of American trading hours. The decline in the US Dollar comes as broader sentiment remains cautious amid mounting US fiscal risks and global tariff uncertainties. US President Donald Trump has proposed a 50% tariff on imports from the European Union starting June 1, citing stalled negotiations between the two sides. Trump also threatened to place 25% tariffs on Apple in order to force the iPhone maker to reshore phone production in the US. Canadian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.54% -0.56% -0.94% -0.71% -0.96% -1.25% -0.92% EUR 0.54% -0.02% -0.39% -0.17% -0.43% -0.70% -0.37% GBP 0.56% 0.02% -0.38% -0.14% -0.37% -0.68% -0.35% JPY 0.94% 0.39% 0.38% 0.26% -0.01% -0.29% 0.04% CAD 0.71% 0.17% 0.14% -0.26% -0.27% -0.53% -0.21% AUD 0.96% 0.43% 0.37% 0.00% 0.27% -0.27% 0.05% NZD 1.25% 0.70% 0.68% 0.29% 0.53% 0.27% 0.32% CHF 0.92% 0.37% 0.35% -0.04% 0.21% -0.05% -0.32% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
USD/CAD extends five-day losing streak, down nearly 1.30% this weekCanadian Retail Sales rise 0.8% in March, excluding autos it hit -0.7%.The US Dollar sinks to a two-week low amid fiscal concerns and stalled trade talks.The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens further against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, marking a five-day rally. The USD/CAD is down nearly 1.30% this week, with the pair slipping below the 1.3800 psychological mark to trade near a two-week low as traders reacted to mixed Retail Sales data from Canada.The Loonie pair was already under pressure earlier in the day due to a broadly weak US Dollar, ahead of the Canadian Retail Sales release. The pair dropped further after the latest figures released by Statistics Canada revealed a stronger-than-expected 0.8% rise in Retail Sales for March, beating the market forecast of 0.7% and a solid rebound from February’s downwardly revised -0.5% drop. However, Retail Sales ex Autos surprised to the downside, printing at -0.7% in March from February’s 0.6% gain.These Retail Sales figures suggest that consumer spending is on a downward trajectory when auto sales are excluded, but remains resilient overall.Reacting to the data, Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said, “Canadian consumers haven’t tightened the purse strings much, it seems in the face of tariff uncertainty.”The Canadian Dollar (CAD) also draws support amid a broad-based weakness in the USD. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six major currencies, slipped to a two-week low to trade near 99.40 during the start of American trading hours. The decline in the US Dollar comes as broader sentiment remains cautious amid mounting US fiscal risks and global tariff uncertainties. US President Donald Trump has proposed a 50% tariff on imports from the European Union starting June 1, citing stalled negotiations between the two sides. Trump also threatened to place 25% tariffs on Apple in order to force the iPhone maker to reshore phone production in the US. Canadian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.54% -0.56% -0.94% -0.71% -0.96% -1.25% -0.92% EUR 0.54% -0.02% -0.39% -0.17% -0.43% -0.70% -0.37% GBP 0.56% 0.02% -0.38% -0.14% -0.37% -0.68% -0.35% JPY 0.94% 0.39% 0.38% 0.26% -0.01% -0.29% 0.04% CAD 0.71% 0.17% 0.14% -0.26% -0.27% -0.53% -0.21% AUD 0.96% 0.43% 0.37% 0.00% 0.27% -0.27% 0.05% NZD 1.25% 0.70% 0.68% 0.29% 0.53% 0.27% 0.32% CHF 0.92% 0.37% 0.35% -0.04% 0.21% -0.05% -0.32% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
17:54 EUR/JPY slumps to near 161.00 as Trump threatens 50% tariffs on Eurozone
The EUR/JPY pair slides to near 161.00 during North American trading hours on Friday, the lowest level seen in a month.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY tumbles to near 161.00 as the Euro declines after Trump threatens to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the EU.The ECB is certain to lower interest rates in the June meeting.Hot Japan National CPI data for April increases BoJ hawkish bets.The EUR/JPY pair slides to near 161.00 during North American trading hours on Friday, the lowest level seen in a month. The pair slumps as the Euro (EUR) weakens after United States (US) President Donald Trump threatens to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union (EU) in a post on Truth.Social during late European trading hours after Brussels sent a not-so-good trade proposal to Washington."Our discussions with them are going nowhere! Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025. There is no tariff if the product is built or manufactured in the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter!", Trump said.A fresh escalation in trade tensions between the economies has led to a sharp decline in the demand for the Euro (EUR). The impact of US-EU trade issues would be significant on the major currency as goods exported by the EU in 2024 were almost double from what it imported from the US, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative.Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also warned in an interview with Fox News that the EU is “not negotiating in good faith”.Additionally, higher hopes that the European Central Bank (ECB) will reduce interest rates in the June policy meeting have also weighed on the Euro.On the Tokyo front, the Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms a majority of its peers, except antipodeans, on hotter-than-projected Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, released earlier in the day. As measured by the CPI, the inflation data, excluding Fresh Food, rose at a faster pace of 3.6%, compared to estimates of 3.4% and the March reading of 3.2%. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.46% -0.51% -0.90% -0.62% -0.90% -1.18% -0.83% EUR 0.46% -0.05% -0.42% -0.16% -0.44% -0.72% -0.36% GBP 0.51% 0.05% -0.38% -0.11% -0.36% -0.67% -0.31% JPY 0.90% 0.42% 0.38% 0.28% -0.03% -0.30% 0.06% CAD 0.62% 0.16% 0.11% -0.28% -0.31% -0.56% -0.20% AUD 0.90% 0.44% 0.36% 0.03% 0.31% -0.27% 0.08% NZD 1.18% 0.72% 0.67% 0.30% 0.56% 0.27% 0.35% CHF 0.83% 0.36% 0.31% -0.06% 0.20% -0.08% -0.35% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Hot Japan CPI data has increased confidence among market experts that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could hike interest rates in the July meeting.Analysts at ING said in a note, “Hotter-than-expected Japanese consumer inflation, especially the core inflation hitting an over two-year high, should increase the odds of a BoJ rate hike in July.” Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
17:42 USD/JPY: Bearish bias on the daily charts – OCBC
USD/JPY continued to trade lower, tracking USD and UST yields lower. Last at 142.55 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
USD/JPY continued to trade lower, tracking USD and UST yields lower. Last at 142.55 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. USD/JPY continues to trending lower aggressively "On data release this morning, CPI came in hotter than expected, keeping BoJ policy normalisation plans alive. On tariff/trade development, Japan trade negotiator Akazawa will have the 3rd round of talks with US officials including Greer and Lutnick starting today over the weekend and will return to the US again to potentially meet with Bessent on 30 May." "Overnight, PM Ishiba also held a 45 min phone call with Trump to exchange views on tariffs but did not mention anything specific about tariffs. Depending on situation, Ishiba may meet Trump in person next month." "USD/JPY continued to trade lower. Daily momentum is mild bearish while RSI fell. Support next at 142.40, 142 levels. Resistance at 144.40/60 levels (21 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low), 145.80 (50 DMA). We kept our short USD/JPY (entered at 148 as per FX Weekly 13 May), targeting a move towards 141. SL at 151."
17:37 USD: Investors continue to re-evaluate ‘US exceptionalism’ – Rabobank
US treasuries appear to have drawn some comfort today from the Supreme Court’s ruling that the unique structure of the Fed may protect its board members from potentially being removed by the President, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley reports.
US treasuries appear to have drawn some comfort today from the Supreme Court’s ruling that the unique structure of the Fed may protect its board members from potentially being removed by the President, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley reports. USD short-covering in a 1-to-3-month horizon can't be ruled out"This will temper potential credibility issues for the Fed which will dampen inflation fears, at least until the end of Chair Powell’s term. That said, this week’s bout of USD weakness demonstrates that investors are continuing to re-evaluate what is and was meant by ‘US exceptionalism’. For several years, the ‘buy America’ trade appeared to be a failsafe for many investors around the globe." "This is no longer true, and the failure of higher US treasury yields to boost the greenback this week suggests that investors are continuing to overhaul their views regarding the risks that are facing the US economy. While there is a wide variation of views about the US budget, growth and inflation outlooks, the heightening of risks surrounding all three has been clearly making the treasury market jittery. In turn, this is having negative repercussions for US stocks as well as the USD." "That said, the outlook for US assets has to be viewed in the context of alternative investments outside of the US market. It is possible that some of these markets are now beginning to look overbought. Although we see EUR/USD higher at 1.15 on a 12-month view, we cannot rule out bouts of USD short-covering in a 1-to-3-month horizon. Similarly, while we are forecasting USD/JPY at 140 in 12 months, we see risk of pullbacks to 145 on a 1-to-3-month view."
17:23 US Treasury Sec. Bessent :US is far along in trade talks with India, Asian countries
In an interview with Fox News on Friday, United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that US President Donald Trump believes that the European Union's proposals have not been of good quality, per Reuters.
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In an interview with Fox News on Friday, United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that US President Donald Trump believes that the European Union's proposals have not been of good quality, per Reuters.Key takeaways"Trump move is in response to EU's pace on tariffs.""Hope this lights a fire under EU.""EU has collective action problem.""Would like to have apple help US to make semiconductor supply chain better.""Trump trying to bring back precision manufacturing to US.""US is far along in trade talks with India, Asian countries.""Most countries negotiating in good faith except EU.""These deals are moving quickly.""Will see more deals announced within 90-day period." Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
17:22 Fed’s Schmid: Tariffs keep uncertainty unabated
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said that the current high uncertainty is still being driven by the tariff debate.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said that the current high uncertainty is still being driven by the tariff debate.
17:21 USD/CHF declines due to Trump's tariff threat on the EU and rising risk aversion
The Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with concerns over the health of the United States (US) economy weighing on the Greenback.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}US Dollar weakness increases demand for the safe-haven Swiss Franc.USD/CHF extends losses after Trump threatens a 50% tariff on imports from the EU, which would be effective June 1st.The Swissie pair remains vulnerable as confidence in the Greenback as the reserve currency wanes.The Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with concerns over the health of the United States (US) economy weighing on the Greenback.At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8224, down 0.81% in the day, and heading toward the May low of 0.8186, which is a key support level.United States (US) President Donald Trump threatened a 50% tariff on imports from the European Union (EU) on Friday, which would be effective June 1st. In a social media post, Trump stated that the EU was "very difficult to deal with" and "our negotiations with them are going nowhere."Renewed tariff threats have reignited outflows from the US into safe havens like Gold and the Swiss Franc.In the US, the House of Representatives' decision to pass the controversial ‘one big beautiful bill’ on Thursday has raised significant concerns over fiscal policy and debt repayments, underscoring the gravity of the situation. On social media, Trump stated, “This is arguably the most significant piece of Legislation that will ever be signed in the History of our Country!" However, the package is expected to add $3.8 trillion to the federal government's growing debt of $36.2 trillion over the next decade. This will increase the debt burden and is viewed negatively for the economy.With speakers of the Federal Reserve (Fed) continuing to provide commentary about expectations of the US economy, their remarks play a pivotal role in shaping interest rate expectations. Although higher interest rates are generally supportive of a currency, a more uncertain economic backdrop continues to support demand for alternative assets. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
17:16 Fed’s Musalem: Business expect higher prices
Business leaders are becoming increasingly concerned about the economic consequences of rising prices and trade uncertainty, suggested St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.
Business leaders are becoming increasingly concerned about the economic consequences of rising prices and trade uncertainty, suggested St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.Key QuotesBusiness executives are trying to figure out how to manage uncertainty about supply chains, inventory, and inflation.Businesses expect higher prices for inputs and outputs; the Fed is watching that carefully.Do not want a rise in short-term inflation expectations to bleed into longer-term ones
17:06 DXY: Weak sentiment on the day – OCBC
Overnight, US Dollar (USD) bounced after prelim PMIs surprised to the upside. But gains were retraced in the morning, alongside the pullback in UST yields. DXY was last seen at 99.40, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Overnight, US Dollar (USD) bounced after prelim PMIs surprised to the upside. But gains were retraced in the morning, alongside the pullback in UST yields. DXY was last seen at 99.40, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Pace of decline may moderate "Republicans in House of Representatives won passage of a major bill dubbed the 'One, Big, Beautiful Bill' (by 215 votes to 214 votes). The legislation now heads to the Senate, and the Republicans have set a 4 July deadline for both chambers to pass the bill and get it for Presidential sign-off." "CBO estimates the bill will add USD3.8trn to the US's USD36.2trn debt over the next decade and deficit may stretch to around 7% of GDP in the coming years. A host of factors from policy unpredictability relating to Trump tariffs to concerns over fiscal health should continue to undermine USD sentiments.""Bullish momentum on daily chart faded but decline in RSI moderated. Downside pressure, but pace of decline may moderate unless there is a fresh trigger. Support at 99.10 levels. Resistance at 100 (21 DMA), 100.80 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 peak to trough) and 101.35 (50 DMA)."
17:00 United States New Home Sales (MoM) came in at 0.743M, above forecasts (0.692M) in April
United States New Home Sales (MoM) came in at 0.743M, above forecasts (0.692M) in April
16:54 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades almost flat around $33, outlook remains firm
Silver price (XAG/USD) wobbles in a tight range around $33.00 during North American trading hours on Friday. The white metal remains almost flat despite a substantial weakness in the US Dollar (USD).
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The white metal remains almost flat despite a substantial weakness in the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, refreshes an over three-week low around 99.10.Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Silver price a value bet for investors.The US Dollar continues to suffer from increasing concerns over the United States (US) fiscal imbalances in the wake of President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill, which has been advanced to the Senate after being approved by the House of Representatives.According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, Trump’s new bill would increase the US debt by $3.8 trillion over the decade, which is currently $36.2 trillion. Such a scenario would further damage the US Sovereign credit rating, which was already downgraded by Moody’s to Aa1 from Aaa last week.Meanwhile, a fresh escalation in trade tensions between the US and the European Union (EU) is expected to support the Silver price. Theoretically, the demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver, increases when global economic tensions escalate.During early North American trading hours, US President Trump threatened to impose 50% flat tariffs on the EU in a post on Truth.Social. Our discussions with them are going nowhere! Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025. There is no tariff if the product is built or manufactured in the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter!", Trump saidSilver technical analysisSilver price oscillates inside Thursday’s trading range around $33.00 on Friday. The white metal trades in a range between $31.65 and $33.70 for a month. The near-term trend of the white metal is uncertain as it wobbles around the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades near $32.75.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend.Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
16:51 Fed’s Goolsbee: The Fed needs to wait for the dust to clear
Before committing to significant investments or other choices, US businesses were looking for continuity in trade policy, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said.
Before committing to significant investments or other choices, US businesses were looking for continuity in trade policy, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said. He added that President Donald Trump's latest threat of 50% tariffs on European Union goods was a "scary" possibility for supply chains.Key QuotesBusinesses telling Fed they want consistency in policy before making big decisions.A 50% EU tariff is an order of magnitude different from current situation.Tariff rates that high would be scary for the supply chain.There is anxiety among firms that continued tariff announcements would disrupt the supply chain and lead to a rising price environment.In the short run the Fed needs to wait for the dust to clear, the bar for action is higher until that happens.If tariffs have a stagflationary impact then that is the central bank's worst situation.A fear is that data is lagged and upcoming reports will show a more serious impact from actions already taken.To the extent long-term yields are moving higher that can impact real activity directly, would factor into Fed analysis.Interest rates are still within historical ranges, if there was a crisis over US fiscal stability they would be moving higher.Still feel that underneath the volatility the economy remains strong, if tariffs and uncertainty were not a threat to inflation rates could eventually fall.Gratified that it looked like the Supreme Court acknowledged the importance of Fed independence.
16:35 US: Problems beyond policy content – UBS
Generally, investors are concerned with policy content. Fiscal changes adjust the relative performance of different sectors of the economy, and markets react accordingly. But the current US administration has added two complications.
Generally, investors are concerned with policy content. Fiscal changes adjust the relative performance of different sectors of the economy, and markets react accordingly. But the current US administration has added two complications. Policy is less predictable, and it seems more likely to have unintended consequences, UBS' economist Paul Donovan reports. Perception of policy professionalism might become an investor focus"Erratic policy decisions across a range of areas have added a risk premium into the US economy. Policy decisions can be quickly reversed, and there are fewer signposts for what decisions will be. In the past, investors looked to views expressed by cabinet members and senior officials as a guide to policy evolution. With decision-making focused so much on one individual, those signpost are of limited help today.""The fact that policy decisions have been made quickly, by people who do not always have prior government experience, has introduced unintended consequences—either forcing policy reversals or causing economic disruption. Even if those consequences do not affect areas investors focus on, they send a signal about how policy is formulated. The perception of policy professionalism might become an investor focus.""Financial and economic models tend to operate on quantifiable inputs. Introducing unpredictability and unintended consequences removes any pretense of precision in forecasting the US economy. The weightings attached to risk scenarios are thus higher than normal."
16:25 Prices for Platinum and Palladium rise significantly – Commerzbank
The price of Platinum rose significantly this week, as did the price of Palladium, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
The price of Platinum rose significantly this week, as did the price of Palladium, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Platinum and Palladium are exceptionally cheap compared to Gold"Platinum rose by 5.6% on Tuesday alone and then reached its highest level in almost a year on Wednesday at $1,090 per troy ounce. At the same time, Palladium rose by around 8% to just over $1,055 per troy ounce, which was a 3½-month high. Prior to this, several market observers had published their new forecasts for Platinum group metals. In most cases, these showed that the markets remain in a supply deficit." "However, demand is expected to decline, in some areas even quite significantly. Therefore, the new forecasts cannot necessarily be seen as the reason for the price jump. However, they may have been taken as an opportunity. After all, with a price discount of more than $2,200 compared to Gold and a price ratio of more than 3:1, Platinum and Palladium are exceptionally cheap compared to Gold. It remains to be seen whether the recent price rises will last." "There have been price spikes in Platinum and Palladium before in recent months. However, as in October 2024 and in the case of Platinum in May 2024, these were reversed after a short time. For the prices of Platinum and Palladium to rise permanently and make up ground against Gold, the uncertainty surrounding the tariff policy would have to subside which seems unlikely for the time being."
15:31 Mexican Peso holds gains as US House approval of Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill rattles markets
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is benefiting from the renewed US Dollar (USD) weakness on Friday, which is driven by concerns over the health of the United States (US) deficit after the US House of Representatives voted in favour of Trump’s administration tax and spending bill.
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The report, published by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography of Mexico (INEGI) on a monthly basis, reflects the difference between a country's exports and its imports. Despite posting a narrower-than-expected trade deficit, it still represents a swing from the $3.442 billion surplus reported in March. For the United States (US), speakers of the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to provide comments about interest rate expectations. Investors will be monitoring the comments closely for signs of any changes in when the Fed may cut interest rates.At 14:00 GMT, Housing data will be released, reflecting the demand for housing in April, perceived as a leading indicator of spending and demand for credit.Mexican Peso daily digest: US fiscal concerns linger.Fiscal concerns surrounding the passing of Trump’s proposed tax bill have increased. The “Big, Beautiful Bill” is expected to increase the US federal deficit by $3.8 trillion over the 2026-2034 period, according to the US Congressional Budget Office.The recent rating downgrade by Moody’s agency, combined with President Trump’s tax bill, has weighed on the US Dollar. A rating downgrade reflects reduced faith in the US to repay its debt.Fed speakers on Friday include St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, and Governor Lisa Cook, who are all voting members of the Fed. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 94.7% probability that interest rates will remain in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% in June, with analysts not expecting any Fed rate cut until September.With the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) cutting interest rates by 0.50% at its May meeting, the divergence in interest rate differentials between both countries should support demand for the USD.However, on Thursday, Mexico’s 1st half-month inflation data came in higher than expected at 0.09%, reflective of an increase in price pressures.Thursday’s data also showed that Mexico’s Growth Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.2% on quarter and by 0.8% on year, in line with market expectations. With the economy seen as resilient despite increased tariffs from the US, it could reduce pressure on Banxico to continue cutting rates in the near term.Mexican Peso technical analysis: USD/MXN trades near 19.30 USD/MXN remains near 19.30, trading below the 10-day and 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at the respective levels of 19.39 and 19.49. With a break above 19.30 potentially bringing these levels into play, a move below would suggest that sellers are in control of the trend.The Relative Strength (RSI) indicator is at 37.77, showing downside momentum is firm.Should the downtrend hold, a retest of the May low of 19.23 would bring the October low of 19.11 into sight, with the next layer of support at the next psychological level of 19.00.USD/MXN daily chart
Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
15:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) above forecasts (0.7%) in March: Actual (0.8%)
Canada Retail Sales (MoM) above forecasts (0.7%) in March: Actual (0.8%)
15:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) below expectations (0%) in March: Actual (-0.7%)
Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) below expectations (0%) in March: Actual (-0.7%)
15:08 US Dollar extends losses amid US debt concerns
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, dips further on Friday and erases the previous day’s recovery, trading near 99.40 at the time of writing.
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The House of Representatives has passed US President Trump’s spending bill. The US Dollar Index ekes out further losses and is on its way to test a fresh two-week lowThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, dips further on Friday and erases the previous day’s recovery, trading near 99.40 at the time of writing. The fresh leg lower comes after the House of Representatives passed United States (US) President Donald Trump’s spending bill, now on its way to the Senate. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office revealed that this "big, beautiful bill" comes with a hefty price tag: $3.8 trillion in additional debt to the federal government's $36.2 trillion over the next decade, according to Reuters.Markets, and indeed the bond market, have been very concerned about these numbers. The best example was the longer-term 30-year Bond, where yields rallied to 5.15% on Thursday from 4.64% at the start of May, a more than one-year high since the 5.18% seen at the end of December 2023. More concerns could devalue the US Dollar even further. Daily digest market movers: Fed takes over againPresident Trump threatens with a 50% tariff on all EU goods from June 1st and a 25% tariff on Iphones if they are not made in the US. At 12:35 GMT, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem participates in a fireside chat with Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid at the Heartland Health Institute, Benthoville.At 14:00 GMT, April’s New Home Sales data will be released. At 16:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank Governor Lisa Cook speaks on financial stability at the Seventh Annual Women in Macro Conference.Equities are in positive territory this Friday with marginal gains for European indices and some small gains for US futures ahead of the opening bell. The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June’s meeting at just 5.3%. Further ahead, the July 30 decision sees odds for rates being lower than current levels at 28.2%. Recent hawkish comments from Fed officials have reduced the chances of a rate cut in the short term.The US 10-year yields trade around 4.51%, cooling down from their peak performance earlier this week at 4.62%. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Has room to the downsideThe US Dollar Index is back to square one, flirting with a fresh two-week low at the time of writing near 99.40. With the spending bill now having cleared that first hurdle, the risk of a substantial shock effect in the US debt could further materialise. Even another cut in its credit rating might be under consideration, denting the US image and the US Dollar even further. On the upside, the broken ascending trend line and the 100.22 level, which held the DXY back in September-October, are the first resistance zone. Further up, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 101.49 is the next level to watch out for, followed by 101.90, a pivotal level throughout December 2023 and as a base for the inverted head-and-shoulders (H&S) formation during the summer of 2024. In case Dollar bulls push the DXY even higher, the 103.18 pivotal level comes into play.If the downward pressure continues, a nosedive move could materialize towards the year-to-date low of 97.91 and the pivotal level of 97.73. Further below, a relatively thin technical support comes in at 96.94 before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
15:08 US Pres. Trump: Recommending a straight 50% tariff on the European Union
In a post published on Truth Social on Friday, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that he is recommending a "straight 50% tariff" on imports from the European Union.
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In a post published on Truth Social on Friday, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that he is recommending a "straight 50% tariff" on imports from the European Union."The European Union, which was formed for the primary purpose of taking advantage of the United States on trade, has been very difficult to deal with," Trump said. "Our discussions with them are going nowhere! Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025. There is no tariff if the product is built or manufactured in the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"Market reactionThe US Dollar stays under bearish pressure following these comments. At the time of press, the USD Index was down 0.45% on the day at 99.45 Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
15:01 Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $: $0.083B (April) vs previous $1.035B
Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $: $0.083B (April) vs previous $1.035B
15:00 Mexico Trade Balance, $ above expectations ($-0.16B) in April: Actual ($-0.088B)
Mexico Trade Balance, $ above expectations ($-0.16B) in April: Actual ($-0.088B)
14:58 Gold benefits from uncertain US budget situation – Commerzbank
The price of Gold has climbed back above the $3,300 per troy ounce mark in recent days, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen reports.
The price of Gold has climbed back above the $3,300 per troy ounce mark in recent days, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen reports. Risk of stronger upward swings in Gold rises"This was primarily fuelled by concerns about the US budget situation which is reflected in the significant rise in US bond yields, particularly at the long end (20, 30 years), which is likely due to an increase in the risk premium. A weaker US dollar also provided support.""Concerns are being fuelled by the US government's massive fiscal package currently being discussed in the US Congress. If implemented as planned, this threatens to significantly inflate the US government deficit in the coming years and therefore calls into question the sustainability of US debt." "Added to this was the recent downgrading of the US credit rating by a major rating agency. All of this erodes the status of US government bonds as a safe haven, meaning that Gold is in greater demand in uncertain times. This effect is likely to be self-reinforcing the more often it is observed. The risk of stronger upward swings in Gold has therefore increased."
14:55 USD/JPY slips as Japan’s core inflation hits two-year high
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to appreciate against the US Dollar (USD), extending gains after Japan’s core consumer inflation surprised to the upside.
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The USD/JPY pair slipped below 144.00 after posting a modest gain on Thursday to trade near 143.00 during the European session on Friday, down over 0.50% on the day.Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.6% YoY in April, matching March’s figure and marking the lowest reading since December, while the core CPI, which excludes fresh food prices but includes energy, rose 3.5% YoY, up from 3.2% in March and slightly above the market forecast of 3.4%. This marks the highest core inflation print in two years, signaling persistent price pressures in the economy. The latest rise in inflation was fueled mainly by a sharp jump in the prices of food, which surged 7.0% YoY as many companies hiked prices in April, with rice prices nearly doubling by 98.6% from a year ago.The latest inflation data has stoked fresh speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could consider tightening policy further in the coming months. BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida indicated earlier in the week that the central bank could continue raising interest rates if Japan’s economy rebounds from the hit of higher US tariffs, noting that inflation is likely to stay near the 2% target if conditions unfold as projected. The BoJ decided to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.50% in its May meeting.That said, a Reuters poll conducted between May 7 and May 13 showed that most economists expect the BoJ to keep interest rates unchanged through September. However, a slight majority favoured a rate hike before the end of the year, reflecting growing expectations of a gradual policy shift as inflation remains elevated.The Yen also draws support from a broadly weak US Dollar, as broader sentiment remains cautious, and mounting US fiscal risks and geopolitical uncertainty curb investor appetite for the Greenback. The US Dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, failed to gain traction despite upbeat preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for May released on Thursday and reversed from the 100.00 mark to trade around 99.30, marking a fresh weekly low.On the trade front, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has called the US tariffs, including 25% on automobiles, a "national crisis" for the world's fourth-largest economy. Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, departed for Washington on Friday to begin a third round of talks to ease trade tensions and avert further economic fallout. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
14:55 GBP trades at 1.35, highest since 2022 – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) gains are extending to near 1.35, leaving spot trading at its highest since early 2022, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Pound Sterling (GBP) gains are extending to near 1.35, leaving spot trading at its highest since early 2022, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Strong Retail Sales curbs easing risk"GBP is benefiting from generally better than expected economic data—including today’s significantly stronger than expected Retail Sales rise of 1.2% (versus 0.3% forecast)—which have all but eliminated the risk of a June BoE cut and have reduced August easing risks significantly. Firmer GBP prospects and the generally soft USD trend suggest a push to the 1.40 could develop in the coming weeks.""Strong weekly gains for the GBP suggest the broader bull trend in place since the start of the year is poised to resume. Spot gains are extending nicely above the downward-sloping channel (bull flag pattern) that developed over the past month, implying the risk of another, fairly quick and significant jump (~700bps) in the pound over the next 1-2 months. Support is 1.3430. Resistance is 1.3740/50 and 1.40."
14:52 Kazakhstan apparently produced far too much oil in May as well – Commerzbank
Kazakhstan is unlikely to have reduced its oil production in May, therefore once again significantly exceeding the agreed production volume.
Kazakhstan is unlikely to have reduced its oil production in May, therefore once again significantly exceeding the agreed production volume. OPEC+ countries may follow Kazakhstan and increase production more sharply"As the news agency Reuters reported, citing an unnamed industry-related source, Kazakh oil production excluding condensates totalled 1.86 million barrels per day in the first 19 days of May. This was 2% more than in April and only slightly less than in March. According to the OPEC+ agreement, Kazakhstan is only expected to produce 1.49 million barrels per day in May. This does not include the planned compensatory cuts for the previous overproduction.""The significant increase in production in recent months is attributed to the Tengiz oil field, which is expected to account for around half of Kazakhstan's oil production in May. According to Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy, production in the Tengiz oil field has reached the targeted level, which is why production is not expected to increase any further this year." "However, OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia in particular are unlikely to be satisfied with this. If Kazakhstan does not reduce production towards the agreed level, the seven other OPEC+ countries, which had voluntarily reduced their production, are also likely to increase production more sharply in the summer months. A similarly strong increase in production in July as in May and June has become very likely."
14:48 CAD gains set to extend – Scotiabank
Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains are lagging most of its peers on the day and over the week but a 1%-plus rise since Monday so far nevertheless puts the CAD on course to extend its rebound.
Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains are lagging most of its peers on the day and over the week but a 1%-plus rise since Monday so far nevertheless puts the CAD on course to extend its rebound. Evident signs of longer-term bullishness in the CAD should not be ignored, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Riskies imply strengthening bullish sentiment"USD/CAD risk reversals continue to price unusually aggressively for USD puts over calls, with the premium for 3m USD/CAD puts reaching a marginal new high yesterday (near 0.26 of a vol). Broader pricing for USD risk reversals has shifted sharply (in favour of USD puts) in recent weeks but USD/CAD pricing has been slower to adjust to weakening USD sentiment than other pairs. USD/CAD riskies have typically traded flat with a premium for USD calls. The premium for USD puts that has developed this week is the largest since 2009." "Pricing suggests investors anticipate (and want to hedge) more downside movement in the USD in the coming months. A firm close for the CAD on the week would suggest to me that spot is likely to explore more of the lower end of the 1.35/1.40 range I think we have shifted into. Commenting after the G7 finance ministers’ and central bankers’ meeting in Banff, Governor Macklem said Q2 growth will be quite weak and without certainty, the economy will likely weaken further. The comments had no impact on the CAD or near-term swaps pricing, however.""USD/CAD losses this week are set to deliver a solidly bearish weekly close signal (bearish 'engulfing line' on the weekly candle chart). USD/CAD gains have been easily held to resistance in the 1.40 zone over the past couple of weeks and more pressure is likely on key short-term support (retracement/April low) at 1.3745/50 in the next few days. Trend signals are bearish for the USD on the short– and medium-term studies. Longer run oscillators are edging USD-negative as well. A sustained push lower in funds towards 1.34/1.35 may develop on a break under 1.3745 support."
14:46 Gold back above $3,300 as geopolitical jitters persist – Commerzbank
Gold is back in demand amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and a weakening US dollar, with prices climbing above $3,300 per ounce. However, upside potential may be limited as high prices weigh on physical demand in Asia, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.
Gold is back in demand amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and a weakening US dollar, with prices climbing above $3,300 per ounce. However, upside potential may be limited as high prices weigh on physical demand in Asia, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes. Safe-haven appeal lifts Gold, but upside may be limited"Gold is showing strength again, as it is particularly in demand in these politically uncertain times, also because other supposed safe havens such as the US dollar are currently under pressure. The price of Gold is now back above $3,300 per troy ounce, almost $200 higher than its low in the middle of last week." "Of course, there are many conceivable scenarios in which Gold could benefit from a further increase in risk aversion. However, we consider the upside potential to be largely exhausted, as the high prices are also dampening physical demand in Asia." "Nevertheless, China's Gold imports were probably high in April because the central bank raised the quotas. Imports from Hong Kong and Switzerland, which are due to be published next week, could have been correspondingly strong."
14:33 USD slips on weak sentiment – Scotiabank
With the US long weekend looming and no major data releases to deal with today, it’s likely to be a fairly quiet session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
With the US long weekend looming and no major data releases to deal with today, it’s likely to be a fairly quiet session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD slips on weak sentiment, little other news"Many of this week’s US data reports (Fed surveys, PMIs, weekly claims) came in somewhat better than expected. Positive data surprises suggest the economy may have improved after a weaker April but prospects remain soft as tariff uncertainty persists and we may not see any meaningful tariff impact on prices and the broader economy until the June data. A period of relative economic stasis may develop as businesses await tariff developments but that may not be too helpful for the USD." "Despite positive data surprises, higher US yields (and wide spreads) and some renewed volatility in the US stocks, the USD is heading for a 1.5% loss in DXY terms on the week—it’s first weekly decline since late April. The USD is not responding to typically bullish cues. FX market drivers are shifting from macro/Fed policy to fiscal/bond yields. Longer-term USD bull phases have been driven by cyclical factors (stronger growth, higher yields—'US exceptionalism') historically." "USD bear phases tend to reflect concerns about structural (deficits) challenges, perhaps such as the one facing the US now as the president’s tax bill progresses through Congress. President Trump’s policies have conveyed a high degree of uncertainty onto US economic prospects and the outlook for the USD which international investors are responding to, and more USD losses seem likely in the weeks and months ahead."
14:30 India FX Reserves, USD: $685.73B (May 12) vs previous $690.62B
India FX Reserves, USD: $685.73B (May 12) vs previous $690.62B
14:29 USD/JPY: Further USD declines are not ruled out – UOB Group
Further US Dollar (USD) declines are not ruled out, but deeply oversold conditions and tentative slowing of downward momentum could first lead to consolidation, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Further US Dollar (USD) declines are not ruled out, but deeply oversold conditions and tentative slowing of downward momentum could first lead to consolidation, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Deeply oversold conditions may lead to consolidation24-HOUR VIEW: "While we indicated yesterday that USD 'could weaken further', we pointed out that 'given the deeply oversold conditions, any decline is unlikely to break below 143.00.' Our directional call was not wrong, but USD dropped more than expected, reaching 142.78. However, the decline was short-lived, with USD rebounding to close 0.24% higher at 144.01. The rebound amid still oversold conditions suggests the downside risk has likely faded for now. Today, USD is likely to consolidate in a range between 143.40 and 144.70."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our USD view to negative two days ago (21 May, spot at 144.40). After USD swiftly exceeded our technical objectives, we indicated yesterday (22 May, spot at 143.90) that 'despite being deeply oversold, downward momentum continues to indicate downside risk toward 143.00.' Once again, USD quickly exceeded our target, dropping to 142.78 before rebounding to snap its seven-day losing streak with a 0.24% gain (144.01). While further declines remain possible, deeply oversold conditions and tentative slowing of downward momentum could first lead to consolidation. That said, yesterday’s low near 142.80, is now acting as a strong support level. On the upside, a break above 145.05 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate a broader and longer consolidation phase."
14:22 EUR rebounds, helped by German GDP revision – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) remains well-supported on dips, with spot trading close to a cent above yesterday’s session low, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Euro (EUR) remains well-supported on dips, with spot trading close to a cent above yesterday’s session low, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Bull break from consolidation is on the cards"Final German GDP was revised nicely higher for Q1. Growth posted a 0.4% gain in the quarter—double the preliminary estimate and above market expectations. The data helped the EUR extend gains from the low 1.13 zone.""Solid gains for the EUR this week are delivering a bullish break out from the downward consolidation channel (bull flag pattern) that has developed over the past month. Solidly EUR-bullish trend momentum signals suggest a significant push higher in spot may resume." "There is a little congestion on the daily chart between 1.1380/1.1420 which may slow gains in the short run ahead of a retest of the 1.16 area (and possibly higher, potentially towards the 1.18/1.20 range)."
14:16 NZD/USD rallies to near 0.5960 as New Zealand Dollar outperforms across the board
The NZD/USD pair surges almost 1% to near 0.5960 during European trading hours on Friday. The Kiwi pair soars as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperforms its peers on stronger-than-projected New Zealand (NZ) Q1 Retail Sales data.
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.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}NZD/USD soars to near 0.5960 as the NZ Dollar outperforms its peers after upbeat domestic Q1 Retail Sales data.RBA Hauser is hopeful of resilient demand from China.The US Dollar declines amid fears of an increase in US fiscal imbalances.The NZD/USD pair surges almost 1% to near 0.5960 during European trading hours on Friday. The Kiwi pair soars as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperforms its peers on stronger-than-projected New Zealand (NZ) Q1 Retail Sales data. New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.54% -0.55% -0.40% -0.29% -0.78% -0.96% -0.29% EUR 0.54% -0.01% 0.15% 0.26% -0.24% -0.40% 0.27% GBP 0.55% 0.00% 0.15% 0.27% -0.20% -0.39% 0.28% JPY 0.40% -0.15% -0.15% 0.14% -0.37% -0.54% 0.14% CAD 0.29% -0.26% -0.27% -0.14% -0.52% -0.66% 0.00% AUD 0.78% 0.24% 0.20% 0.37% 0.52% -0.16% 0.52% NZD 0.96% 0.40% 0.39% 0.54% 0.66% 0.16% 0.67% CHF 0.29% -0.27% -0.28% -0.14% -0.01% -0.52% -0.67% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
Stats NZ reported that Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, rose by 0.8%, faster than expectations of 0.1%, but slower than the 1% growth seen in the last quarter of 2024. Theoretically, strong Retail Sales data discourages the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) from lowering interest rates further. However, the RBNZ is expected to lower its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25% in the policy meeting next week amid heightened growth concerns.“Another 25bp rate cut by the RBNZ on May 28 seems likely. Markets are fully pricing it in, following the RBNZ’s previous indications that growth remains a major concern,” FX analysts at ING said last week.Another reason behind the strength in the antipodean is increasing hopes of strong business from China in the near term. On Thursday, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser stated that Australian exporters are “upbeat about the resilience of China demand”. Given that the NZ economy is one of the leading trading partners of Beijing, signs of strong demand from the Asian giant strengthen the Kiwi dollar.Meanwhile, a substantial weakness in the US Dollar (USD) on the back of growing United States (US) fiscal concerns has also strengthened the Kiwi pair. Investors have become worried over the US fiscal health due to a new bill by President Donald Trump, which comprises tax cuts and higher spending on defense and border enforcement. The new bill is expected to increase the national debt by $3.8 billion over a decade.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slumps to near the two-week low around 99.30. Related news NZD/USD holds positive ground near 0.5900 as New Zealand Retail Sales beat expectations US Dollar Index falls toward 99.50 as Trump’s One Big Beautiful Act clears first hurdle New Zealand: Fiscally adrift – Standard Chartered
13:56 ECB's Lane: We are confident that service inflation will come back
European Central Bank (ECB) chief economist Philip Lane said on Friday that they are confident that the service inflation in the Eurozone will continue to decline, per Reuters.
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European Central Bank (ECB) chief economist Philip Lane said on Friday that they are confident that the service inflation in the Eurozone will continue to decline, per Reuters.""We're seeing wage contracts having actually quite low settlements for this year, even lower for next year," Lane explained. "So we are confident that service inflation will come back."Earlier in the day, the data published by the ECB showed that Negotiated Wage Rates rose by 2.38% on a quarterly basis in the first quarter, down from the 4.12% increase recorded in the previous quarter. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
13:52 NZD/USD: 0.5865/0.5985 range is likely to contain the price movements for now – UOB Group
A narrower 0.5865/0.5985 range is likely enough to contain the price movements for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
A narrower 0.5865/0.5985 range is likely enough to contain the price movements for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Any decline is unlikely to break clearly below 0.588524-HOUR VIEW: "In the early Asian session yesterday, we indicated that 'the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase between 0.5910 and 0.5960.' However, instead of trading in a range, NZD fell to 0.5895, closing at 0.5898 (-0.70%). The increase in downward momentum is not enough to indicate a sustained decline. Instead, it is more likely to lead to a lower range of 0.5885/0.5925. To put it another way, any decline is unlikely to break clearly below 0.5885." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have expected NZD to trade in a range since the middle of last week. Yesterday (22 May, spot at 0.5935), we highlighted that 'While the price action over the past couple of days provides no fresh clues, a narrower 0.5865/0.5985 range is likely enough to contain the price movements for now.' There is no change in our view. Looking ahead, should NZD break clearly below 0.5865, it could trigger a decline."
13:49 USD: Even Nobel Prize winners can be wrong – Commerzbank
In his latest blog post, US economist Paul Krugman (winner of the 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics) shows one of my favorite graphs: the net international investment position (IIP) of the US, in other words, the net debt (when negative) of the US economy vis-à-vis the rest of the world.
In his latest blog post, US economist Paul Krugman (winner of the 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics) shows one of my favorite graphs: the net international investment position (IIP) of the US, in other words, the net debt (when negative) of the US economy vis-à-vis the rest of the world. It has been growing dramatically lately. And indeed, this is a potential problem. But Krugman's explanation is wrong. He writes: 'One consequence of decades of capital inflows is that America owes a lot of money to the rest of the world', Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. Price effects, not capital flows, now drive U.S. IIP shift "Krugman would have been right in the early 2000s. Today, however, capital inflows (in economist jargon: 'financial account transactions' or short 'F/A transactions') no longer play a decisive role in the change of US net IIP. If the US's debt is rising mainly because US assets are valued more highly, this is a far less dramatic story than the one Krugman is telling. The US is so heavily indebted because foreigners are so keen to hold US assets that they keep pricing them higher and higher. That doesn't sound so dramatic and less like an impending crisis.""However, the situation is still not entirely reassuring. If foreigners decided to cash in on a large scale, there could still be capital flight. The nasty scenario Krugman predicts is certainly possible! But a different scenario is also conceivable: falling prices of assets held by foreigners could lead to a recovery of US net IIP. We saw something like this briefly in 2022, when the US's net IIP recovered slightly: rising US yields devalued fixed-income assets and therefore a chunk of the US's liabilities to the rest of the world. A stock market crash would have similar consequences. That would not be good news for US citizens who rely on 401k plans." "And it would be ugly for those FX market participants with USD-long positions. But it would be different from Krugman's sudden-stop scenario. And what can we learn from this in general? Look at the data! Even Nobel Prize laureates should stick to this rule."
13:39 JPY: A July BoJ hike is underpriced – ING
The chances of a Bank of Japan hike in July are very much underpriced, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
The chances of a Bank of Japan hike in July are very much underpriced, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.USD/JPY may meet good selling interest around 145 area"The market attaches around a 10% probability to such an outcome. Last night's release of April CPI data should worry the BoJ enough to prompt a 25bp hike in our opinion. And with the dollar staying relatively weak, USD/JPY will likely meet good selling interest should it make it back to the 145 area."
13:37 AUD/USD: Likely to trade in a range between 0.6370 and 0.6480 – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) is under mild downward pressure; it could edge lower to 0.6395. In the longer run, outlook is mixed; AUD is likely to trade in a range between 0.6370 and 0.6480, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Australian Dollar (AUD) is under mild downward pressure; it could edge lower to 0.6395. In the longer run, outlook is mixed; AUD is likely to trade in a range between 0.6370 and 0.6480, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Outlook for the AUD/USD is mixed24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected AUD to trade in a range between 0.6415 and 0.6465 yesterday. AUD then rose to 0.6459, dropped to 0.6408, and then closed on a soft note at 0.6409 (-0.44%). Given the slight increase in downward momentum, AUD is likely to edge lower to 0.6395. The major support at 0.6370 is unlikely to come under threat. Resistance is at 0.6435; a breach of 0.6450 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from two days ago (21 May, spot at 0.6425) wherein 'the recent choppy price action has resulted in a mixed outlook.' We held the view that AUD 'is likely to trade in a range between 0.6370 and 0.6480 for the time being.' There is no change in our view."
13:25 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Sets for volatility expansion
The AUD/USD pair is up 0.8% around 0.6460 during European trading hours on Friday. The Aussie pair strengthens as antipodeans perform strongly, and escalating concerns over the United States (US) fiscal health continue to batter the US Dollar (USD).
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Given that the Australian economy relies heavily on its exports to Beijing, positive commentary from China increases the Aussie Dollar’s appeal.AUD/USD consolidates in a tight range of 0.6340-0.6515 for over a month. The pair wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.6415, indicating a sideways trend.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates near 60.00. Bulls would come into action if the RSI breaks above that level.More upside would appear towards the November 25 high of 0.6550 and the round-level resistance of 0.6600 if the pair if the pair breaks above the May 7 high of 0.6515.On the flip side, a downside move below the March 4 low of 0.6187 will expose it towards the February low of 0.6087, followed by the psychological support of 0.6000.AUD/USD daily chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
13:18 USD: No change in FX language at the G7 meeting – ING
Earlier this week, we speculated over the low probability, high impact event of a change in FX language in this week's closing statement from the G7 meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank governors in Canada, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Earlier this week, we speculated over the low probability, high impact event of a change in FX language in this week's closing statement from the G7 meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank governors in Canada, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.DXY may trade within a 99.20-100.20 range today"In the end, the statement said very little about FX apart from reaffirming commitment to its 2017 statement on FX - namely favouring free floating exchange rates and avoiding competitive devaluations, However, the statement did seem to convey much of the US concern over unfair trade practices which resulted in concern over 'unsustainable macro imbalances'. We read that phrase as the G7 looking at China's large trade surplus, although the global investor base could equally be looking at the US trade and budget deficits, too.""Concerns remain over US Treasuries this summer, as evidenced by the US ten-year swap spread still trading wide at 55bp. We're also following the high-frequency data when it comes to foreign official holdings of US Treasuries. Fed custody holdings data suggest these fell $10bn in the week to Wednesday, marking a $30bn drop since the start of April. We're all really waiting for the April US TIC data, released mid-June, which will tell us which country sold what in April.""Ahead of long weekends in the US and UK, realised FX volatility continues to drift lower. However, traded or expected volatility remains relatively high for EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Here, one-month trade levels remain above 8% and 11%, respectively, suggesting investors are not comfortable pricing pre-'Liberation Day' levels of volatility just yet. DXY may well trade slightly offered and well within a 99.20-100.20 range today."
13:12 US natural gas falls on larger-than-expected storage build – ING
US natural gas prices declined sharply as storage data surprised to the upside, reinforcing concerns about near-term oversupply and weighing on NYMEX Henry Hub futures, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
US natural gas prices declined sharply as storage data surprised to the upside, reinforcing concerns about near-term oversupply and weighing on NYMEX Henry Hub futures, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.EIA data pushes Henry hub prices lower "US natural gas prices sold off yesterday, with NYMEX Henry Hub settling 3.4% lower on the day. This was after Energy Information Administration data showed that US natural gas storage increased by 120 billion cubic feet over the last week." "This was slightly above market expectations and well above the 5-year average for an 87 bcf increase. It leaves total gas storage at 2.375 tcf, 3.9% above the 5-year average."
13:07 GBP/USD: The next technical target is at 1.3500 – UOB Group
Momentum indicators still point to Pound Sterling (GBP) upside; the next technical target is at 1.3500, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Momentum indicators still point to Pound Sterling (GBP) upside; the next technical target is at 1.3500, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Momentum indicators still point to GBP upside24-HOUR VIEW: "We highlighted yesterday that 'the combination of slowing momentum and overbought conditions suggests consolidation today, likely in a 1.3380/1.3470 range.' Our call of consolidation was not wrong, even though GBP traded in a narrower range between 1.3392 and 1.3440, closing marginally lower at 1.3418 (-0.01%). The price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect consolidation today, most likely within a range of 1.3375/1.3450." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "There is not much to add to our update from yesterday (22 May, spot at 1.3420). As indicated, 'momentum indicators continue to point to GBP upside, and the next technical target is at 1.3500.' Overall, only a breach of 1.3340 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would mean that the advance that started early this week has come to an end."
13:05 OPEC+ output policy – ING
The oil market is under renewed pressure as noise builds around what OPEC+ will do with their July output levels, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
The oil market is under renewed pressure as noise builds around what OPEC+ will do with their July output levels, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.EU wants to lower the G7 price cap for Russian oil"There are reports suggesting the group is considering another large supply increase, similar to those in May and June output. This would cement the shift in policy from the group -- moving from defending prices to defending market share. In our balance sheet, we assume that OPEC+ will go ahead with a 411k b/d supply increase for July." "Therefore, our price forecasts will remain unchanged if an increase of this size is confirmed at the beginning of next month. We currently forecast Brent to average US$59/bbl in the fourth quarter. The front-month ICE Brent timespread has also come under pressure, falling from a backwardation of US$0.74/bbl at the start of the week to around US$0.50/bbl.""Meanwhile, following a G7 summit in Canada, finance ministers have threatened further sanctions against Russia if no progress is made towards a peace deal with Ukraine. In addition, the EU is throwing around the idea of lowering the G7 price cap for Russian oil to US$50/bbl from US$60/bbl. Russian Urals are currently trading at around US$55/bbl, which allows western shipping services to be used in the trade of this oil."
13:03 EUR/USD gains as heightened concerns over US fiscal health hurt the US Dollar
EUR/USD resumes its upside journey on Friday after a corrective move the previous day. The major currency pair jumps to near 1.1350 during European trading hours as the US Dollar (USD) slumps after a short-lived recovery on Thursday.
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The major currency pair jumps to near 1.1350 during European trading hours as the US Dollar (USD) slumps after a short-lived recovery on Thursday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, declines to near the two-week low around 99.40.Financial market participants continue to dump the US Dollar as the new tax bill by United States (US) President Donald Trump has increased concerns over the nation’s fiscal health. The new bill comprises tax cuts and higher spending on defense and immigration controls, among others, and it is expected to increase the national debt by $3.8 trillion over the next decade, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.Investors are worried that the additional burden on the nation’s debt could lead to further erosion of the US credit rating. Last week, Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa, citing the failure of successive administrations and Congress to agree on measures to “reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs”. The scenario of a long-term issuer rating downgrade could lead to an increase in borrowing rates for the government, which limits the spending capacity for future generations or makes borrowing more expensive for them.The imposition of Trump’s new bill is also expected to accelerate consumer inflation expectations, assuming that tax cuts for households result in an increase in the overall spending and eventually boost price pressures. The scenario would discourage Federal Reserve (Fed) officials from reducing interest rates.Fed officials have been guiding that monetary policy adjustments are not appropriate at the current juncture, as uncertainty over the economic outlook under the leadership of US President Trump is unusually high.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD gains at US Dollar’s expenseEUR/USD trades firmly around 1.1350 as the US Dollar faces selling pressure. The Euro (EUR) trades firm despite uncertainty over a European Union (EU)-US bilateral deal. Earlier in the day, hopes of progress in a trade agreement between the two economies diminished after Washington’s trade negotiators warned that discussions could not advance if the old continent doesn’t offer unilateral concessions.A report from the Financial Times (FT) showed that US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer would tell European Commission (EC) Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maroš Šefčovič that the recent “explanatory note” shared by Brussels for the talks falls short of US expectations. The report states that, unlike some other trading partners, the EU has offered mutual tariff reductions, not unilateral concessions. The explanatory note also lacked any new concessions relating to the digital, as the US has demanded.On the economic data front, Eurozone Q1 Negotiated Wage Rates data, a key wage growth measure, has come in lower at 2.38% against 4.12% seen in the last quarter of 2024. A sharp slowdown in the wage growth measure is expected to encourage European Central Bank (ECB) officials to lower interest rates further. Traders are increasingly confident that the ECB will reduce its key borrowing rates again in the June policy meeting.However, ECB policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel expressed caution on further interest rate cuts at the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Canada on Thursday. "After seven interest rate cuts, our deposit rate stands at 2.25%, a level that can certainly no longer be described as restrictive," Nagel said, Reuters reported. He stated that borrowing costs are “no longer a drag on the Eurozone economic growth”.The Euro underperformed on Thursday after the release of the weaker-than-projected HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for May. The PMI report showed that the overall business activity surprisingly declined as the service sector output contracted unexpectedly.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD climbs to near 1.1350EUR/USD jumps to near 1.1350 on Friday. The near-term outlook of the pair is bullish as it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.1255.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises to near 60.00. Bulls would come into action if the RSI breaks above that level.Looking up, the April 28 high of 1.1425 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
13:03 Inflation figures in Japan: The dilemma is growing – Commerzbank
Markets had already doubted whether the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would raise its key interest rate again in July. Inflation figures for April published this morning are likely to increase the dilemma for the BoJ. After all, inflation remains above the BoJ's target, mainly due to energy and food prices.
Markets had already doubted whether the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would raise its key interest rate again in July. Inflation figures for April published this morning are likely to increase the dilemma for the BoJ. After all, inflation remains above the BoJ's target, mainly due to energy and food prices. However, private consumption is weak, not least due to the negative development of wages. Given the weak sentiment indicators, consumption is likely to continue to stagnate. It is therefore doubtful whether the 'second force' that the BoJ has been waiting for for months eventually will materialize and drive prices up on a sustainable basis, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes. BoJ may not take further interest rate action until the end of the year"In the first quarter, growth in Japan fell slightly compared with the previous quarter, primarily due to sluggish consumption and negative net exports. There were no signs in Japan of any pull-forward effects from concerns about rising US tariffs, which boosted exports in other countries. In addition to growth and inflation, there is another reason why the BoJ is unlikely to raise its key interest rate in the near future: the general uncertainty on the global markets. Although the US government has suspended the tariffs announced at the beginning of April for 90 days, it is unclear what will happen after that. It is questionable whether viable and lasting agreements can be reached by then.""At least the US government does not seem to have Japan on its radar as a currency manipulator; obviously, the weak yen is rather seen as a product of contrasting monetary policies. This could also ease pressure on the BoJ to raise interest rates further in the near future. However, the JPY is currently not far from the levels seen at the end of September 2024, before USD/JPY rose again towards 160. Perhaps a little yen weakness would actually suit the BoJ quite well to boost exports.""All in all, it therefore looks as if the BoJ will not take further interest rate action until the end of the year at the earliest. Until then, the strategy of choice (as for most central banks) is to adopt a wait-and-see stance, but to remain on standby so that monetary policy can be used to respond quickly to changes in current trade developments (with the corresponding potential impact on growth and prices) if necessary."
12:48 EUR/USD: 1.1400 is now in focus – UOB Group
Price action suggests further Euro (EUR) strength, with 1.1400 now in focus, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Price action suggests further Euro (EUR) strength, with 1.1400 now in focus, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Price action suggests further EUR strength24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR rose to 1.1362 on Wednesday and then pulled back. Yesterday, Thursday, we pointed out that 'the pullback in overbought conditions suggests EUR is unlikely to strengthen much further.' We were of the view that EUR 'is more likely to consolidate between 1.1290 and 1.1365.' However, rather than consolidating, EUR dropped to 1.1253 in the NY session. EUR closed at 1.1280, down 0.43%. Despite the decline, there has been no clear increase in downward momentum. The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, expected to be between 1.1255 and 1.1325." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (22 May, spot at 1.1325), we highlighted that 'the price action suggests further EUR strength, with 1.1400 now in focus.' We added, 'to keep the momentum going, EUR must hold above 1.1235 (‘strong support’ level).' While the subsequent pullback in the NY session went a bit deeper than expected, we continue to hold the same view for now."
12:37 USD: When will the market realize? – Commerzbank
The hard data from the US does not yet show any real signs of a drastic economic slowdown as a result of the new US administration's erratic trade and economic policy, although growth in the first quarter surprised on the downside with a contraction, fueling recession fears.
The hard data from the US does not yet show any real signs of a drastic economic slowdown as a result of the new US administration's erratic trade and economic policy, although growth in the first quarter surprised on the downside with a contraction, fueling recession fears. At least the purchasing managers' indices have recovered after the slump at the beginning of the year and are back in comfortable expansionary territory in May, both for the manufacturing and service sectors, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes. New trouble for the USD is looming from the US budget "Does this mean that the recession fears were exaggerated and the dollar has one less problem to worry about? Not so fast, please. Our economists have always assumed that a recession in the US can be avoided. In addition, the market has already scaled back its recession fears based on the still solid US data of recent weeks and months. Nevertheless, the effects of the tariffs are likely to become visible in the second half of the year, partly due to the 90-day suspension. So the problem has not been solved, but merely put on the back burner.""However, new trouble for the USD is looming from another side. I already touched on this topic on Tuesday: the US budget. Trump's tax bill, which has been controversially debated even within his own party, has been passed by the House of Representatives and is now going to the Senate. Among other things, it aims to make the tax cuts introduced by Trump permanent. However, the financing for this is also shaky, and it can be assumed that the budget deficit will continue to swell.""Perhaps the issue will now become more pressing as it is being discussed more in public. I am curious to see when the market will realize that this is the next major (structural) burden on the dollar."
12:32 EUR: June ECB rate cut looks on the cards – ING
The release yesterday of ECB minutes and ECB commentary seems to squarely point to a 25bp ECB rate cut in June, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
The release yesterday of ECB minutes and ECB commentary seems to squarely point to a 25bp ECB rate cut in June, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Euro benefits from being the most liquid alternative to the USD"That would take the deposit rate to 2.00%. That's fully priced by the markets, as is a further 25bp rate cut in December. Yesterday's flash PMI data for May appears to support that pricing, with some worrying declines in the services component. Here, it clearly looks as though uncertainty is weighing on activity, and there will be much focus on EU-US trade negotiations, which should pick up steam next month.""We think the euro is continuing to benefit from being the most liquid alternative to the dollar. There is also evidence that portfolio re-allocation is helping the euro. Earlier this week, March eurozone Balance of Payments data showed that eurozone residents repatriated EUR40bn of foreign equity positions in March—the largest inflow since September 2022. And the equity portfolio flow account looks pretty healthy for the euro right now.""Expect EUR/USD to trade well within a 1.1280-1.1380 range today."
12:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $33.18 per troy ounce, up 0.38% from the $33.06 it cost on Thursday.
Silver prices have increased by 14.84% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD Troy Ounce 33.18 1 Gram 1.07
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 100.27 on Friday, up from 99.69 on Thursday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 100.27 on Friday, up from 99.69 on Thursday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
12:18 Gold edges higher after Trump’s bill boosts bond market uncertainty
Gold (XAU/USD) price extends its weekly gains, trading near $3,330 at the time of writing on Friday, up nearly 1% on the day, on a new tailwind for the safe haven precious metal.
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Markets fear that US President Trump’s spending bill will balloon the US debt even further. Gold sees a weekly gain of around 4%, fully recovering from the previous week’s fall. Gold (XAU/USD) price extends its weekly gains, trading near $3,330 at the time of writing on Friday, up nearly 1% on the day, on a new tailwind for the safe haven precious metal. The spending bill from United States (US) President Donald Trump passed through the House of Representatives on Thursday and is now on its way to the Senate. Traders are worried that the spending bill will only add more US debt, while income from tariffs remains to be seen as enough to provide funding for all the spending.The best place to track these concerns is the US 30-year benchmark rate. Yields in that maturity rallied to 5.15% on Thursday from 4.64% at the start of May, a more than one-year high since the 5.18% seen at the end of December 2023. Adding all things up, the recent downgrade on US credit rating from agency Moody’s, and now this spending bill, which adds $3.8 billion to the US debt, traders and market participants demand a higher premium or return before considering buying US debt bonds, which pushes US yields higher, the Economic Times reports. Daily digest market movers: Yield vs. Gold correlation brokenYields on 10-year US Treasuries have pushed higher this week, topping 4.5%. In earlier years, such a move would have been a major headwind for Gold as it doesn’t pay interest, with bullion prices and yields typically moving inversely. That correlation has now weakened, Bloomberg reports.“Gold is likely to remain range-bound in the near term,” said Justin Lin, an analyst at Global X ETFs. “However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and increasing concerns about the US fiscal outlook continue to provide underlying support”, Bloomberg reports. China’s onshore, gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) saw inflows resume as prices rebounded, according to a report by China Securities Journal. Some 20 Gold ETFs listed on Chinese bourses received inflows of about 370m Yuan on May 21, the report said, Bloomberg reports. If output doubles as planned, Ghana expects to rake in $12 billion a year from small-scale Gold production. Gold exports from Ghana have surged as international prices have soared, and much of that expansion is down to small mines and artisanal production. This year, the government set up a regulator to handle all Gold buying and selling, hoping to boost foreign-currency reserves and curb black-market trading, Reuters reports. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Out of controlThe US debt market is entering wild waters from here on out. The ballooning debt, along with uncertainty on the income of tariffs and other measures lagging to fund the spending bill, makes the US debt a heavy weight for markets to bear. This translates into a higher yield demanded for investors to be convinced to buy the issued debt, creating uncertainty that sends Gold higher and might see more room to go. On the upside, the R1 resistance at $3,333 is the first level to look out for as it already looks toppish in the European trading session for now. The R2 resistance at $3,372 follows not far behind and could open the door for a return to the $3,400 round level and potentially further course to new all-time highs. On the other side, some thick-layered support emerges in case the Gold price declines. On the downside, the daily Pivot Point comes in at $3,306, safeguarding the $3,300 big figure. Some intermediary support could come from the S1 support at $3,267. Further below, there is a technical pivotal level at $3,245, roughly converging with the S2 support at $3,240. XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
11:54 AUD/JPY climbs to mid-92.00s, lacks bullish conviction amid mixed fundamental cues
The AUD/JPY cross attracts some buying on Friday and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak to sub-92.00 levels, or a three-week low touched the previous day.
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The intraday move up lifts spot prices to a fresh daily high, around the 92.50 region during the early European session, and is sponsored by the emergence of some buying around the Australian Dollar (AUD). US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau spoke with Chinese Executive Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu earlier today and discussed a wide range of issues of mutual interest. Both agreed on the importance of keeping open lines of communication, which, along with a broadly weaker, provides a modest lift to the AUD and the AUD/JPY cross. However, a combination of factors warrants some caution for bulls. China’s Commerce Ministry on Wednesday warned of legal action against individuals or organizations implementing US export restrictions on Huawei's Ascend AI chips. This highlights persistent tensions between the world's two largest economies and should keep a lid on the optimism. Apart from this, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) dovish outlook contributes to capping the AUD and the AUD/JPY cross. The Australian central bank, as was widely expected, lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.8% on Tuesday and left the door open for more rate cuts. This marks a big divergence in comparison to hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations, which, along with sustained safe-haven buying, is seen underpinning the Japanese Yen (JPY) and might hold back the AUD/JPY bulls from placing fresh bets. BoJ officials recently showed a willingness to hike interest rates further if the economy and prices improve as projected. Adding to this, Japan's hotter consumer inflation figures released earlier today reaffirmed bets that the BoJ will continue raising interest rates. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming a near-term bottom for the AUD/JPY cross and positioning for further gains. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
11:02 Forex Today: US Dollar retreats on fiscal concerns, Pound Sterling rises to multi-year highs
Here is what you need to know on Friday, May 23:
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Here is what you need to know on Friday, May 23:The US Dollar (USD) struggles to hold its ground against its rivals on Friday after posting marginal gains on Thursday. The European Central Bank (ECB) will publish Negotiated Wage Rates data for the first quarter. Later in the day, New Home Sales for April will be the only data featured in the US economic calendar. Heading into the weekend, investors will continue to pay close attention to speeches from central bank policymakers. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.34% -1.44% -1.33% -1.13% -0.74% -1.00% -1.27% EUR 1.34% -0.12% 0.05% 0.27% 0.73% 0.40% 0.07% GBP 1.44% 0.12% -0.12% 0.40% 0.85% 0.53% 0.20% JPY 1.33% -0.05% 0.12% 0.22% 0.77% 0.54% 0.12% CAD 1.13% -0.27% -0.40% -0.22% 0.40% 0.13% -0.20% AUD 0.74% -0.73% -0.85% -0.77% -0.40% -0.32% -0.64% NZD 1.00% -0.40% -0.53% -0.54% -0.13% 0.32% -0.33% CHF 1.27% -0.07% -0.20% -0.12% 0.20% 0.64% 0.33% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
United States (US) President Donald Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill passed the Republican-controlled House of Representatives on Thursday by a slim margin. The Senate is expected to start discussions on the bill after the Memorial Day holiday on May 26 and vote on it before July 4. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield declined more than 1% on Thursday and was last seen edging lower toward 4.5%.Meanwhile, the USD Index stays in negative territory at around 99.50 after posting small gains on Thursday. The data published by S&P Global showed that the economic activity in the US' private sector expanded at an accelerating pace in May, with Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rising to 52.1 from 50.6 in April. Finally, US stock index futures trade modestly higher in the European morning.EUR/USD benefits from the renewed USD weakness and trades comfortably above 1.1300 on Friday.GBP/USD gathers bullish momentum and trades at its highest level since February 2022 near 1.3500.USD/JPY stays on the back foot and declines toward 143.00 early Friday. Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reiterated on Friday that there was no change in Japan's stance on US tariffs and its demand that they be eliminated. Additionally, Reuters reported that Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa is planning to visit the US around May 30 for the fourth round of talks.After correcting lower, Gold regains its traction on Friday. At the time of press, XAU/USD was trading at around $3,330, rising about 1% on the day. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
11:01 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bulls retain intraday control above $33.00 mark
Silver (XAG/USD) builds on the previous day's bounce from the $32.60 area and gains some follow-through positive traction on Friday. The momentum extends through the early European session and lifts the white metal to a fresh daily peak, around the $33.25-$33.30 region in the last hour.
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The momentum extends through the early European session and lifts the white metal to a fresh daily peak, around the $33.25-$33.30 region in the last hour.Looking at the broader picture, the emergence of dip-buying validates this week's breakout through the top end of a nearly one-month-old descending channel was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction, which, in turn, supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move for the XAG/USD. Some follow-through buying beyond the $33.65-70 resistance zone, or the highest level since early April touched on Thursday, will reaffirm the constructive setup and allow the XAG/USD to reclaim the $34.00 round-figure mark. The subsequent move up has the potential to lift the white metal back towards the year-to-date high, around the $34.55-$34.60 zone touched in March.On the flip side, weakness back below the $32.00 mark might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain cushioned near the XAG/USD near the overnight swing low, around the $32.60 region. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which if broken decisively might expose the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, currently pegged just above the $32.00 mark.Some follow-through selling could make the XAG/USD vulnerable to testing the lower boundary of the aforementioned trend channel, currently around the $31.40 region. A convincing break below will negate the positive outlook and shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders, which, in turn, should pave the way for some meaningful downside.Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
10:45 USD/CHF drops to near 0.8250 as US Dollar retraces gains due to growing debt concerns
USD/CHF retraces its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 0.8260 during the European hours on Friday. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is trading lower at around 99.60 near two-week lows.
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Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is trading lower at around 99.60 near two-week lows. The Greenback stepped down due to growing debt concerns in the United States (US), while Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill” is on its way to the Senate floor.The US House of Representatives cleared Trump’s budget by a single vote of 215-214 on Thursday, which would deliver tax breaks on tip income and US-manufactured car loans. The proposal is expected to increase the deficit by $3.8 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).However, the US Dollar received support as stronger US S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data dampened the odds of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in upcoming policy meetings. S&P Global Composite PMI posted a 52.1 reading for May, rising from April’s 50.6 reading. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.2 prior, while the Services PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.8.Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted on Thursday, stated that if tariffs are close to 10%, the economy would be in good shape for H2, and the Fed could be in a position to cut interest rates later in the year. The CME FedWatch tool suggests that markets are pricing in nearly a 71% chance that the Fed would keep its interest rates steady through its June and July meetings.The increased risk-off sentiment due to growing concerns over the US fiscal deficit, along with tariff concerns, raised the safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc (CHF). Adding to this, geopolitical tensions supported the safe-haven demand. President Trump told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war because he thinks he is winning. Trump proposed lower-level talks at the Vatican between Russia and Ukraine, instead of imposing sanctions.The growing expectations of additional monetary easing by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) put downward pressure on the Swiss Franc, limiting the downside of the USD/CHF pair. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel recently stated that all policy tools would be deployed, including a potential return to negative interest rates. However, Schlegel expressed a desire to avoid such measures. Markets are now broadly expecting a 25 basis-point cut to zero at the SNB's next policy meeting on June 19. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
10:41 Pound Sterling strengthens against US Dollar on strong UK Retail Sales data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) revisits the three-year high against the US Dollar (USD), which it posted earlier this week around 1.3470, in European trading hours on Friday. The British currency strengthens after the release of stronger-than-projected United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for April.
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The British currency strengthens after the release of stronger-than-projected United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for April.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, rose at a robust pace of 1.2% on the month, compared to estimates of 0.2% and the 0.1% growth seen in March, revised lower from 0.4%. On year, the consumer spending measure grew by 5%, faster than expectations of 4.5% and the prior release of 2.6%.According to the Retail Sales report, Food stores, Departmental stores, and Household goods stores saw a substantial increase in sales receipts.Signs of robust household spending are expected to further add to expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) officials will not lower interest rates in the June meeting. This week, hotter-than-expected UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April also forced traders to pare BoE dovish bets.Meanwhile, flash UK S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for May came in better-than-expected. Still, overall business activity remained contracting as the Composite PMI improved to 49.4, against estimates of 49.3 and from 48.5 in April. Overall business activity declined at a slower pace due to a robust increase in the service sector output. The Services PMI came in at 50.2, higher than expectations of 50.0 and the prior release of 49.0. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI declined at a faster pace to 45.1 from 45.4 in April, below the 46 expected.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling trades higher against US DollarThe Pound Sterling outperforms the US Dollar on Friday on the back of upbeat UK Retail Sales data. While growing concerns over the United States (US) fiscal imbalances have also kept the US Dollar on the backfoot. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, declines to near 99.65. Financial market participants are worried that US President Donald Trump’s new bill, which comprises tax cuts, increased spending on defense and border enforcement, cuts in the Medicaid program, and subsidies on green energy, is expected to worsen the already overstretched fiscal deficit.According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, Trump’s new bill would increase the US debt by $3.8 trillion over the decade, which is currently $36.2 trillion. Such a scenario would further damage the US Sovereign credit rating, which was already downgraded by Moody’s to Aa1 from Aaa last week.President Trump’s new bill has been approved by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and is advanced to the Senate, where it is expected to face significant objections. "I expect there will be considerable changes in the Senate," Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas said, Reuters reported.On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are expected to continue arguing in favor of keeping interest rates in their current range of 4.25%-4.50% for a longer time, as Trump’s tax bill could be another trigger for high inflation in the economy. Policymakers have already acknowledged that patience is required amid unusually high uncertainty in the wake of new economic policies announced by US President Trump.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling trades firmly near three-year high of 1.3470The Pound Sterling trades close to the three-year high of 1.3470 against the US Dollar on Friday. The near-term trend of the GBP/USD pair remains bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is sloping higher around 1.3320.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks above 60.00. Should the RSI hold above that level, a fresh bullish momentum would be triggered.On the upside, the 13 January 2022 high of 1.3750 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the 20-day EMA near 1.3320 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
10:03 EUR/GBP remains above 0.8400 following German GDP, UK Retail Sales data
EUR/GBP recovers its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 0.8410 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross advances as the Euro (EUR) attracts buying support following Germany’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the first quarter, released by Destatis.
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The currency cross advances as the Euro (EUR) attracts buying support following Germany’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the first quarter, released by Destatis.German GDP quarter-over-quarter rose 0.4% in the first quarter, against the market expectations of a steady 0.2% increase. Meanwhile, the annual GDP rate remained unchanged at 0%, better than the expected decline of 0.2%.However, the EUR/GBP cross may face challenges as the Euro could lose ground due to increased risk-off sentiment. The Financial Times reported that President Trump pushes the European Union (EU) to cut tariffs or face extra duties. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is set to tell EU counterpart Maroš Šefčovič, Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, that the recent "explanatory note" falls short of US expectations.On Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Boris Vujčić noted that the “Eurozone growth is positive but low.” Vujčić expects that inflation may get close to the 2% target at the end of the year and achieve the target in early 2026. Meanwhile, Joachim Nagel, President of the Bundesbank and member of the European Central Bank's (ECB) Governing Council (GC), argued that the bank’s current interest rate level is not considered restrictive.The upside of the EUR/GBP cross could be limited as the Pound Sterling (GBP) gains ground as the United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales rose 1.2% month-over-month in April, surpassing the expected 0.2% increase. This advancement follows a 0.1% rise in March (revised from 0.4%). The Retail Sales YoY improved 5.0% in April against March’s 1.9%. Meanwhile, the core Retail Sales (excluding fuel data) grew 5.3% in April against the 2.6% previous revision, while monthly sales rose 1.3% MoM, compared to the previous revised growth of 0.2% and the estimated 0.3% reading.The Pound Sterling (GBP) also attracted buyers after the GfK better-than-expected Consumer Confidence Index for the United Kingdom (UK) was released. The UK Consumer Confidence Index rose by 3 points to -20 in May, better than the expected reading of -22 and reversing from April’s -23 reading. However, consumer sentiment remains cautious as the index remains well below its long-term average. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Germany. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the German economic activity and health. A high reading or a better than expected number has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Fri May 23, 2025 06:00 Frequency: Quarterly Actual: 0.4% Consensus: 0.2% Previous: 0.2% Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany Economic Indicator Retail Sales (MoM) The Retail Sales data, released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Fri May 23, 2025 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 1.2% Consensus: 0.2% Previous: 0.4% Source: Office for National Statistics
09:45 France Consumer Confidence came in at 88, below expectations (93) in May
France Consumer Confidence came in at 88, below expectations (93) in May
09:43 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Keeps bullish vibe above 162.00, further consolidation cannot be ruled out
The EUR/JPY cross edges lower to near 162.35 during the early European session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) due to rising expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates this year.
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Positive view of the cross prevails above the 100-day EMA , but further consolidation cannot be ruled out.The immediate resistance level emerges at 163.31; the initial support level to watch is 161.88.The EUR/JPY cross edges lower to near 162.35 during the early European session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) due to rising expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates this year. The bets were supported by hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reports from Japan released earlier this Friday. Technically, in the longer term, the bullish trend of EUR/JPY remains in play as the cross is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Nonetheless, further consolidation or temporary sell-off cannot be ruled out, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) standing below the midline near 46.95.In the bullish case, the immediate resistance level is located at 163.31, the high of May 21. Sustained trading above this level could attract some buyers to 164.80, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Further north, the next hurdle to watch is 166.00, the psychological level and the high of November 7, 2024. The first downside target for the cross emerges at 161.88, the 100-day EMA. Extended losses could see a drop to 161.33, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. A breach of this level could pave the way to the key contention level at the 160.00 psychological mark. EUR/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
EUR/JPY daily chart
EUR/JPY daily chart
09:15 Crude oil price today: WTI price neutral at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price is neutral on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $60.67 per barrel, not far from its Thursday close at $60.67.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude), however, advances from its previous close at $63.60 to trade at $63.63.
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price is neutral on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $60.67 per barrel, not far from its Thursday close at $60.67.
Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude), however, advances from its previous close at $63.60 to trade at $63.63. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude), however, advances from its previous close at $63.60 to trade at $63.63. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
09:15 US Dollar Index falls toward 99.50 as Trump’s One Big Beautiful Act clears first hurdle
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, depreciates toward two-week lows.
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09:02 UK Retail Sales jump 1.2% MoM in April vs. 0.2% expected
The United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales jumped 1.2% month-over-month (MoM) in April after advancing 0.1% in March (revised from 0.4%), the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed Friday. Markets expected a 0.2% rise in the reported month.
The United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales jumped 1.2% month-over-month (MoM) in April after advancing 0.1% in March (revised from 0.4%), the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed Friday. Markets expected a 0.2% rise in the reported month.
More to come...
More to come...
09:02 Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) up to -0.2% in 1Q from previous -0.4%
Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) up to -0.2% in 1Q from previous -0.4%
09:01 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) above expectations (0.3%) in April: Actual (1.3%)
United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) above expectations (0.3%) in April: Actual (1.3%)
09:01 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 1.2%, above forecasts (0.2%) in April
United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 1.2%, above forecasts (0.2%) in April
09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 5%, above forecasts (4.5%) in April
United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 5%, above forecasts (4.5%) in April
09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) registered at 5.3% above expectations (4.4%) in April
United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) registered at 5.3% above expectations (4.4%) in April
09:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) remains unchanged at -0.4% in 1Q
Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) remains unchanged at -0.4% in 1Q
09:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.2%) in 1Q
Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.2%) in 1Q
09:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 0%, above expectations (-0.2%) in 1Q
Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 0%, above expectations (-0.2%) in 1Q
08:17 GBP/USD rebounds above 1.3450 toward 39-month highs, UK Retail Sales eyed
GBP/USD posts gains of about a quarter of a percent in the Asian hours on Friday, trading around 1.3450 at the time of writing. The pair edges higher as the Pound Sterling (GBP) attracts buyers after the GfK better-than-expected Consumer Confidence Index for the United Kingdom (UK) was released.
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The pair edges higher as the Pound Sterling (GBP) attracts buyers after the GfK better-than-expected Consumer Confidence Index for the United Kingdom (UK) was released. Traders await UK Retail Sales, scheduled to be released later in the day, expecting a monthly decline for the third consecutive period in April.On Friday, the UK Consumer Confidence Index rose by 3 points to -20 in May, better than the expected reading of -22 and reversing from April’s -23 reading. However, consumer sentiment remains cautious as the index remains well below its long-term average.However, the British Pound dipped slightly as data showed on Thursday that the seasonally adjusted UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index unexpectedly fell to 45.1 in May from 45.4 in April, as the market forecast was a 46.0 reading in the reported period. Meanwhile, the Preliminary UK Services Business Activity Index rose to 50.2 in May against the previous 49.0 reading and the expected 50.0 figure.The GBP/USD advanced as the Greenback stepped down, driven by a decline in US Treasury yields. The 30-year US bond yield pulled back from 5.15%, the highest in 19 months, due to growing concerns regarding the increase in the fiscal deficit in the United States (US), while Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill” is on its way to the Senate floor.The US House of Representatives approved Trump’s budget by one vote on Thursday, which would deliver tax breaks on tip income and US-manufactured car loans. The proposal is expected to increase the deficit by $3.8 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Economic Indicator Retail Sales (MoM) The Retail Sales data, released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Fri May 23, 2025 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 0.2% Previous: 0.4% Source: Office for National Statistics
08:06 US President Donald Trump pushes EU to cut tariffs or face extra duties - FT
The Financial Times reported on Friday that US President Donald Trump's trade negotiators are pressuring the EU to reduce tariffs on US imports unilaterally, claiming that without concessions, the bloc would not move in discussions to avoid extra 20% "reciprocal" taxes.
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The Financial Times reported on Friday that US President Donald Trump's trade negotiators are pressuring the EU to reduce tariffs on US imports unilaterally, claiming that without concessions, the bloc would not move in discussions to avoid extra 20% "reciprocal" taxes.Key quotes
Trump pushes the EU to cut tariffs or face extra duties.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greerr preparing to tell EU counterpart Sefcovic that a recent "explanatory note" falls short of US expectations.
US negotiators are to tell Brussels they expect unilateral concessions.Market reaction At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading 0.33% higher on the day at 1.1318. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Trump pushes the EU to cut tariffs or face extra duties.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greerr preparing to tell EU counterpart Sefcovic that a recent "explanatory note" falls short of US expectations.
US negotiators are to tell Brussels they expect unilateral concessions.Market reaction At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading 0.33% higher on the day at 1.1318. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
08:00 Singapore Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (0.8) in April: Actual (0.9)
Singapore Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (0.8) in April: Actual (0.9)
07:48 Japan PM Ishiba: No change to our stance on US tariffs
Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Friday that there was no change in Japan's stance on US tariffs and its demand that they be eliminated.
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Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Friday that there was no change in Japan's stance on US tariffs and its demand that they be eliminated.Key quotesNo change to our stance on U.S. tariffs.
Discussed U.S. tariffs with President Trump.
Discussed diplomacy, and security with Trump as well.
There might be an occasion when I’ll visit the U.S. for in-person talks with President Trump.
No change to our stance of demanding the elimination of tariffs.
No change to our policy of talking with the U.S. about creating U.S. jobs.Market reaction At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading 0.42% lower on the day at 143.40. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Discussed U.S. tariffs with President Trump.
Discussed diplomacy, and security with Trump as well.
There might be an occasion when I’ll visit the U.S. for in-person talks with President Trump.
No change to our stance of demanding the elimination of tariffs.
No change to our policy of talking with the U.S. about creating U.S. jobs.Market reaction At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading 0.42% lower on the day at 143.40. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
07:41 USD/CAD slides to 1.3825 area, back closer to two-week low on weaker USD
The USD/CAD pair attracts fresh sellers following the previous day's brief pause and slides to the 1.3825 area during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices remain close to a two-week low touched on Wednesday and seem vulnerable to weaken further amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).
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Spot prices remain close to a two-week low touched on Wednesday and seem vulnerable to weaken further amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD). Traders ramped up their bets for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) following last week's softer US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). Adding to this concerns that US President Donald Trump's dubbed “Big, Beautiful Bill” would worsen the budget deficit at a faster pace failed to assist the USD in building on Thursday's mostly upbeat US data-inspired gains. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting some downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices stall this week's retracement slide from a nearly one-month peak as the uncertainty over US-Iran nuclear talks eases oversupply concerns fueled by reports that OPEC+ is discussing a production increase for July. Adding to this, diminishing odds for a Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate cut in June, bolstered by hotter Canadian core inflation figures released on Tuesday, underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and contribute to the USD/CAD pair's downfall. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains on the downside. Even from a technical perspective, this week's breakdown through a short-term trading range support near the 1.3900 mark validates the near-term negative outlook for the USD/CAD pair and supports prospects for a further depreciating move. Traders now look to Canadian monthly Retail Sales figures and New Home Sales data from the US for a fresh impetus. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
07:38 EUR/USD climbs above 1.1300 ahead of German Q1 GDP data
EUR/USD recovers its recent losses posted in the previous session, trading around 1.1310 during the Asian hours on Friday.
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The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) struggles due to a drop in US Treasury yields, which continue to depreciate after the 30-year US bond yield pulled back from 5.15%, the highest in 19 months.US President Donald Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed the US House of Representatives and is on its way to the Senate floor, which has raised concerns regarding the increase in the fiscal deficit in the United States (US).However, the EUR/USD pair registered around 0.50% losses on Thursday as the Greenback advanced as US S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) posted a 52.1 reading for May, rising from April’s 50.6 reading. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.2 prior, while the Services PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.8.Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted on Thursday that markets are monitoring fiscal policy. Waller further stated that if tariffs are close to 10%, the economy would be in good shape for H2, and the Fed could be in a position to cut later in the year.The Financial Times reported that President Trump pushes the European Union (EU) to cut tariffs or face extra duties. US Trade Representative Greer is set to tell EU counterpart Maroš Šefčovič, Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, that the recent "explanatory note" falls short of US expectations.On Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Boris Vujčić noted that the “Eurozone growth is positive but low.” Vujčić expects that inflation may get close to the 2% target at the end of the year and achieve the target in early 2026. Meanwhile, Joachim Nagel, President of the Bundesbank and member of the European Central Bank's (ECB) Governing Council (GC), argued that the bank’s current interest rate level is not considered restrictive.Eurozone’s HCOB Flash PMI highlighted the ongoing economic slowdown in May. The Services PMI fell from 50.1 to 48.9, below estimates of 50.3, and the Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.4, up from 49.0 in April, exceeding forecasts. Meanwhile, the German HCOB Services PMI dipped from 49.0 to 47.2, below forecasts for a 49.5 increase. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI rose by 48.8, up from April’s 48.4, below forecasts for a 48.9 increase. Traders would likely observe the German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) due on Friday. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 9,142.70 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 9,094.29 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 106,638.60 per tola from INR 106,074.00 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,142.70 10 Grams 91,426.99 Tola 106,638.60 Troy Ounce 284,369.90
2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price draws support from sustained safe-haven buying and a weaker USD The Republican-controlled US House of Representatives on Thursday narrowly passed President Donald Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill. Trump's dubbed “Big, Beautiful Bill”, which will add about $3.8 trillion to the federal government's debt over the next decade, now heads to the Senate for approval. This comes on top of escalating US-China trade tensions, which have been fueling worries about the potential economic impact. Adding to this, the prospects for further policy easing by the Federal Reserve continue to undermine the US Dollar and assist the Gold price to stall the previous day's retracement slide. On the economic data front, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance fell to 227K last week. This pointed to a positive sign for the US labor market and the economy as a whole, which provided a modest lift to the US Dollar. Meanwhile, S&P Global's flash estimate showed that the US economy saw a notable rebound in private sector activity in May and the Composite PMI rose to 52.1. Moreover, the US flash Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.3 in May – the highest in three months – and the Services PMI reached a two-month high of 52.3. Trump reportedly told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war with Ukraine as he thinks he is winning. Adding to this, the killing of two Israeli diplomats in the US keeps geopolitical risks in play and should further offer support to the safe-haven precious metal. Traders now look forward to the release of New Home Sales data from the US, which, along with speeches by influential FOMC members will drive the USD demand. Apart from this, trade developments and the broader risk sentiment should provide some meaningful impetus to the XAU/USD pair. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
07:02 Gold price consolidates around $3,300 mark, bullish potential seems intact
Gold price (XAU/USD) lacks any firm intraday direction on Friday and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses, around the $3,300 mark during the Asian session on Friday.
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The XAU/USD bears, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and positioning for an extension of the previous day's pullback from over a two-week high on the back of US fiscal concerns. Apart from this, renewed US-China trade tensions and persistent geopolitical risks should continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven bullion. Meanwhile, the initial market reaction to Thursday's mostly upbeat US economic data turns out to be short-lived amid worries about the deteriorating US fiscal condition. Adding to this, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates further in 2025 fail to assist the US Dollar (USD) to capitalize on the previous day's move up and lend additional support to the non-yielding Gold price. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair seems poised to register its best weekly gain in more than a month and appreciate further. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price draws support from sustained safe-haven buying and a weaker USDThe Republican-controlled US House of Representatives on Thursday narrowly passed President Donald Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill. Trump's dubbed “Big, Beautiful Bill”, which will add about $3.8 trillion to the federal government's debt over the next decade, now heads to the Senate for approval.This comes on top of escalating US-China trade tensions, which have been fueling worries about the potential economic impact. Adding to this, the prospects for further policy easing by the Federal Reserve continue to undermine the US Dollar and assist the Gold price to stall the previous day's retracement slide. On the economic data front, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance fell to 227K last week. This pointed to a positive sign for the US labor market and the economy as a whole, which provided a modest lift to the US Dollar. Meanwhile, S&P Global's flash estimate showed that the US economy saw a notable rebound in private sector activity in May and the Composite PMI rose to 52.1. Moreover, the US flash Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.3 in May – the highest in three months – and the Services PMI reached a two-month high of 52.3.Trump reportedly told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war with Ukraine as he thinks he is winning. Adding to this, the killing of two Israeli diplomats in the US keeps geopolitical risks in play and should further offer support to the safe-haven precious metal. Traders now look forward to the release of New Home Sales data from the US, which, along with speeches by influential FOMC members will drive the USD demand. Apart from this, trade developments and the broader risk sentiment should provide some meaningful impetus to the XAU/USD pair. Gold price bullish technical setup supports prospects for a move towards reclaiming the $3,400 round figureFrom a technical perspective, the overnight retracement slide from a two-week top shows some resilience below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move up from the monthly low touched last week. Moreover, positive oscillators on hourly/daily charts favor bullish traders and support prospects for an extension of over a one-week-old uptrend. Hence, any subsequent slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and find support near the $3,260-3,258 confluence – comprising the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. A convincing break below, however, might prompt some technical selling and pave the way for deeper losses, towards the 50% retracement level around the $3,232 region, en route to the $3,200 round figure.On the flip side, the $3,320-3,325 zone could act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the overnight swing high, around the $3,346 area. Some follow-through buying has the potential to lift the Gold price beyond the $3,363-3,365 intermediate hurdle and allow bulls to reclaim the $3,400 round figure. A sustained strength beyond the latter will reaffirm the near-term positive outlook and set the stage for a further appreciating move. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
06:37 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises above $33.00, receives support from safe-haven demand
Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher after registering losses over 1% in the previous session, hovering around $33.10 per troy ounce during the Asian trading hours on Friday.
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The manufacturing-sensitive commodities, including Silver, faced challenges due to growing concerns regarding the increase in the fiscal deficit in the United States (US). However, rising safe-haven demand over these fiscal concerns could offset the demand-related threat surrounding such commodities.On Thursday, US President Donald Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed the US House of Representatives and is on its way to the Senate floor. The US House of Representatives approved Trump’s budget by one vote. The proposal is expected to increase the deficit by $3.8 billion, as it would deliver tax breaks on tip income and US-manufactured car loans, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).Silver attracts sellers as uncertain US economic conditions, along with tariff concerns, undermine strong momentum for the photovoltaic industry. Silver is used in various industrial applications, such as electronics, solar panels, and automotive components.In the first quarter of 2025, China's wind and solar capacity rose to nearly 1,500 GW due to a 60GW jump in photovoltaic power. Given China's status as one of the world's largest manufacturing hubs, the country's industrial demand for Silver is significant. Moreover, solar power output in Europe also surged by 30% annually in the first quarter.Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 and predicted that US federal debt is expected to climb to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the budget deficit expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP. This deterioration is attributed to rising debt-servicing costs, expanding entitlement programs, and falling tax revenues. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
06:23 USD/INR gains traction on foreign outflows
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades in negative territory on Friday. Likely foreign outflows from domestic equities and higher crude oil prices undermine the Indian currency.
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Likely foreign outflows and a weaker US Dollar weigh on the INR. Traders brace for Fedspeak later on Friday.The Indian Rupee (INR) trades in negative territory on Friday. Likely foreign outflows from domestic equities and higher crude oil prices undermine the Indian currency. Furthermore, consumer inflation in India fell more than expected to a near six-year low in April, strengthening bets that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is due to extend its rate-cutting cycle. However, a broader weakness in the US Dollar and the progress of a multi-phase trade deal between the US and India could provide some support for the local currency in the near term. Traders will keep an eye on the speeches from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials later on Friday, including Alberto Musalem, Jeff Schmid and Lisa Cook.Indian Rupee drifts lower amid global cuesThe HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 58.3 in May from the previous reading of 58.2. This figure came in stronger than the 58.0 expected. Indian Services PMI improved to 61.2 in April from 58.7 in March. Composite PMI rose to 61.2 in April versus 59.7 prior. “India’s flash PMI indicates another month of strong economic performance. Growth in production and new orders among manufacturing firms remains robust, despite a marginal cooling from the rates of increase observed in April," said Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC.India’s Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal stated that India and the US may finalise the first phase of the India-US trade deal before July.The US Global S&P Composite PMI rose to 52.1 in May's flash estimate from 50.6 in April. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.3 in May from 50.2 in April, while the Services PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.8. The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 17 dropped to 227K, compared to the previous week of 229K, according to the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This reading came in below the market consensus of 230K. Continuing Jobless Claims went up 36K to reach 1.903M for the week ending May 10.USD/INR resumes its upside above the 100-day EMAThe Indian Rupee trades on a weaker note on the day. The USD/INR pair crosses above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe, indicating that the pair could resume its upside. The path of least resistance is to the upside as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the midlineOn the bright side, the first upside barrier is seen at 86.10, the high of May 22. Any follow-through buying could see a rally to 86.61, the high of April 10.The first downside target to watch for USD/INR is 85.35, the low of May 20. Failure to stay above the mentioned level might signal that bears are still in control and drag the price lower to 84.84, the low of May 12. A breach of this level could seem to drop to 84.15, the lower limit of the trend channel. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
05:35 Japanese Yen bulls have the upper hand amid rising BoJ rate-hike bets
The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticked higher on Friday following the release of hotter consumer inflation figures from Japan, which keeps the door open for more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
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Investors, however, seem convinced that policymakers will assess tariffs and trade flows before making their next move. Nevertheless, this still marks a big divergence in comparison to bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs again in 2025. This further contributes to the JPY's outperformance against its American counterpart. Meanwhile, US-Japan trade negotiations appear to be progressing as officials continue to meet regularly. In fact, Japan’s top tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa intends to visit the US around May 30 for another round of talks with the Trump administration. This raises hopes for an early trade deal and is seen as another factor lending support to the JPY. Adding to this, the emergence of fresh US Dollar (USD) selling fails to assist the USD/JPY pair to capitalize on the previous day's goodish rebound from the 142.80 region, or over a two-week low.Japanese Yen benefits from stronger domestic consumer inflation figures and hawkish BoJ expectationsData released by the Japan Statistics Bureau this Friday showed that the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed by 3.6% YoY in April. Further details revealed that the National core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, arrived at 3.5% YoY in April versus 3.2% prior and 3.4% expected. Furthermore, a gauge that excludes both fresh food and energy prices, and is closely watched by the Bank of Japan, edged up to the 3% YoY rate from 2.9% previous. Adding to this, expectations that higher wages will boost prices should maintain pressure on the BoJ to continue raising interest rates. In fact, BoJ officials recently showed a willingness to hike interest rates further if the economy and prices improve as projected. In contrast, traders ramped up their bets for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following last week's softer US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). US President Donald Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill” was passed by the House of Representatives Thursday and is headed to the Senate for approval. If it clears that hurdle and becomes law, the sweeping tax cut and spending bill could worsen the US budget deficit at a faster pace than previously expected.China’s Commerce Ministry on Wednesday warned of legal action against individuals or organizations implementing US export restrictions on Huawei’s AI processors. This highlights persistent tensions between the world's two largest economies despite a preliminary trade agreement reached in Geneva earlier this month.Meanwhile, the standoff revives fears of an economic downturn in the US, which, in turn, fails to assist the US Dollar to build on Thursday's gains led by upbeat US macro data. The US Department of Labor (DOL) reported that Initial Jobless Claims fell to 227K last week, pointing to a still resilient labor market.Adding to this, a preliminary report released by S&P Global showed that the US Composite PMI Output Index rose to 52.1 in May from 50.6 in the previous month. The Services PMI increased to 52.3, compared to April's 50.8, reaching a two-month high, while the Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.3.On the geopolitical front, Israel’s military continued to pound the Gaza Strip and block desperately needed food aid. Adding to this, Trump reportedly told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war as he thinks he is winning, which should further underpin the safe-haven JPY. Friday's US economic docket features the release of New Home Sales data, though the focus will be on speeches by influential FOMC members, which will drive the USD demand and the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside. USD/JPY seems vulnerable after Thursday’s rejection near the 144.35-144.40 confluence support-turned-resistanceThe overnight failure near the 144.40 confluence support breakpoint, comprising the 50% retracement level of the April-May rally and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, and the subsequent slide, favors bearish traders. This, along with negative oscillators on hourly/daily charts, validates the near-term negative outlook for the USD/JPY pair. From current levels, the 143.25 area, or the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, could offer some support ahead of the 143.00 round figure. This is followed by the 142.80 region, or over a two-week low touched on Thursday, below which the USD/JPY pair could accelerate the fall towards the next relevant support near the 142.40-142.35 area before dropping to the 142.00 mark.On the flip side, a sustained strength beyond the 144.35-144.40 confluence support-turned resistance could trigger a short-covering move and lift the USD/JPY pair to the 145.00 psychological mark. This is followed by the 145.35-145.40 hurdle, or the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level, which if cleared decisively might shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders. Economic Indicator National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The gauge excluding food and energy is widely used to measure underlying inflation trends as these two components are more volatile. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu May 22, 2025 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 3% Consensus: - Previous: 2.9% Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
05:31 Australian Dollar appreciates as US Dollar offers recent gains over fiscal deficit concerns
The Australian Dollar (AUD) posts gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday after registering losses in the previous session.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar gains ground as the US Dollar weakens amid lower Treasury yields.The AUD could struggle as RBA Governor Michele Bullock maintained a dovish tone by suggesting further rate cuts.The US Dollar depreciates as the 30-year Treasury yield falls to 5.03% after pulling back from 5.15%.The Australian Dollar (AUD) posts gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday after registering losses in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair jumps as the Greenback comes under pressure, driven by lower US Treasury yields, which continue to depreciate after the 30-year US bond yield topped in 19 months. US President Donald Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed the US House of Representatives and is on its way to the Senate floor, which has raised concerns regarding the increase in the fiscal deficit in the United States (US).However, the AUD/USD pair depreciated on Thursday as the US Dollar received support immediately after the release of stronger US S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. S&P Global Composite PMI posted a 52.1 reading for May, rising from April’s 50.6 reading. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.2 prior, while the Services PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.8.Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a 25 basis points rate cut, reducing its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.85% from 4.10%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock maintained a dovish tone by supporting the central bank's rate cut decision. Bullock mentioned that the Board is prepared to take additional action if necessary, raising the prospect of future changes. She also noted that curbing inflation is important and expressed that a rate cut was a proactive step and boosted market sentiment, which was suitable given the state of the economy.Australian Dollar advances as US Dollar loses ground amid lower treasury yieldsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is retracing its recent gains. At the time of writing, the DXY is trading around 99.70 as the 30-year yield on US Treasury bond is trading at 5.03% after pulling back from 5.15%, reached in the previous session, its highest level since November 2023.The US House of Representatives approved Trump’s budget by one vote on Thursday. The proposal is expected to increase the deficit by $3.8 billion, as it would deliver tax breaks on tip income and US-manufactured car loans, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted on Thursday that markets are monitoring fiscal policy. Waller further stated that if tariffs are close to 10%, the economy would be in good shape for H2, and the Fed could be in a position to cut later in the year.The US Dollar struggled after Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. This move aligns with similar downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011. Moody’s now projects US federal debt to climb to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the budget deficit expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP. This deterioration is attributed to rising debt-servicing costs, expanding entitlement programs, and falling tax revenues.Australia's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index came in at 51.7 in May versus 51.7 prior. Meanwhile, Services PMI declines to 50.5 in May from the previous reading of 51.0, while the Composite PMI eases to 50.6 in May from 51.0 prior.The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar gained support from renewed optimism surrounding a 90-day US-China trade truce and hopes for further trade deals with other countries. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN on Sunday that President Donald Trump intends to implement tariffs at previously threatened levels on trading partners that do not engage in negotiations “in good faith.”The AUD was also affected by Australia's political unrest. Following the National Party's withdrawal from its collaboration with the Liberal Party, the opposition coalition disbanded. The ruling Labor Party, meanwhile, took advantage of the unrest and retook power with a more robust and expansive agenda.Australian Dollar consolidates around the psychological 0.6450 level The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6430 on Friday with a bullish bias, supported by daily technical indicators. The pair maintains its position above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays above the 50 mark, both supporting persistent upward momentum.On the upside, the six-month high of 0.6515, recorded on December 2, 2024, would provide a strong resistance. A decisive break above this barrier could back the pair to test the seven-month high at 0.6687, which was reached in November 2024. The nine-day EMA of 0.6425 is acting as an immediate support, followed by the 50-day EMA near 0.6369. Further depreciation would undermine the bullish outlook, possibly opening the path toward the March 2020 low of 0.5914.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.26% -0.16% -0.24% -0.15% -0.31% -0.22% -0.25% EUR 0.26% 0.10% 0.00% 0.11% -0.05% 0.06% 0.01% GBP 0.16% -0.10% -0.08% 0.04% -0.12% -0.04% -0.08% JPY 0.24% 0.00% 0.08% 0.12% -0.06% 0.05% 0.01% CAD 0.15% -0.11% -0.04% -0.12% -0.19% -0.06% -0.10% AUD 0.31% 0.05% 0.12% 0.06% 0.19% 0.11% 0.07% NZD 0.22% -0.06% 0.04% -0.05% 0.06% -0.11% -0.04% CHF 0.25% -0.01% 0.08% -0.01% 0.10% -0.07% 0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
04:45 WTI declines to below $61.00 on potential OPEC+ output hike
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $60.75 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI price edges lower amid concerns that global supply could outpace demand growth.
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Oil inventories rose by 1.328 million barrels in the week ended May 16, according to the EIA. The US and Iran will hold fresh nuclear talks on Friday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $60.75 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI price edges lower amid concerns that global supply could outpace demand growth.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) planned to boost oil output to regain market share, which might cap the upside for the WTI price. OPEC+ has raised oil output by more than previously expected since April, with its May output likely to increase by 411,000 barrels per day. OPEC leaders are also contemplating a similar increase in July, and could bring back as much as 2.2 million barrels-per-day (bpd) of supply to the market by November, Reuters reported earlier.The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending May 16 climbed by 1.328 million barrels, compared to a rise of 3.454 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would drop by 1.85 million barrels. On Tuesday, the US obtained new intelligence suggesting that Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, even as US President Donald Trump has been pursuing a diplomatic deal with Tehran. It isn’t clear that Israeli leaders have made a final decision to carry out the strikes, CNN said, citing unnamed officials. An attack by Israel would hinder any progress in those negotiations and contribute to tension in the Middle East, which provides about one-third of the world's petroleum. Traders will closely watch the next round of Iran-US talks, which will take place on Friday in Rome. Any signs of progress in nuclear talks might weigh on the WTI price. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
04:17 Japan’s Akazawa heading back to the US around May 30 for more trade talks
Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Friday that he intends to visit the US around May 30 for the fourth round of talks, Reuters with the info citing unnamed sources.
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Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Friday that he intends to visit the US around May 30 for the fourth round of talks, Reuters with the info citing unnamed sources.
During the trip, Akazawa aims to meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who would not be able to join this weekend’s third talks between Akazawa and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, as well as U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.Market reaction At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading 0.01% higher on the day at 1143.80. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
During the trip, Akazawa aims to meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who would not be able to join this weekend’s third talks between Akazawa and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, as well as U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.Market reaction At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading 0.01% higher on the day at 1143.80. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1919 vs. 7.1903 previous
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1919 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1903 and 7.2151 Reuters estimate.
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On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1919 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1903 and 7.2151 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
03:43 NZD/USD holds positive ground near 0.5900 as New Zealand Retail Sales beat expectations
The NZD/USD pair posts modest gains near 0.5900 during the early Asian session onn Thursday. The upbeat New Zealand Retail Sales data provide some support to the Kiwi against the US Dollar (USD).
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A stronger US S&P Global PMI might cap the pair's upside. The NZD/USD pair posts modest gains near 0.5900 during the early Asian session onn Thursday. The upbeat New Zealand Retail Sales data provide some support to the Kiwi against the US Dollar (USD). Traders will keep an eye on the speeches from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials later on Friday, including Alberto Musalem, Jeff Schmid and Lisa Cook. New Zealand Retail Sales were stronger than expected in the first quarter (Q1) this year as interest-rate cuts triggered improved consumer demand and confidence. The country’s Retail Sales rose 0.8% QoQ in Q1 from the previous reading of 0.9%, according to the official data published by Statistics New Zealand on Friday. The upbeat New Zealand economic data underpin the China-proxy Kiwi, as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand.On the other hand, the stronger US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) might boost the Greenback and drag the pair lower. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that markets are monitoring fiscal policy. Waller further stated that if tariffs are close to 10%, the economy would be in good shape for H2, and the Fed could be in a position to cut later in the year. Markets have priced in nearly a 71% chance that the Fed would keep its interest rates steady through its next two meetings, according to the CME FedWatch tool. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
02:46 Lagarde speech: We must question links of dependency that we have with US
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Friday that with US President Donald Trump’s extension of his trade war to nearly every country, we must question the links of dependency that we have with each other and, in certain matters, with the United States.
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European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Friday that with US President Donald Trump’s extension of his trade war to nearly every country, we must question the links of dependency that we have with each other and, in certain matters, with the United States.Key quotes"Warned that international trade will be changed forever by the tensions over tariffs."
“While it is fairly obvious that international trade will never be the same again, it’s also pretty clear that there will be further negotiations.”
"Said that with Trump's extension of his trade war to nearly every country, we must question the links of dependency that we have with each other and, in certain matters, with the United States."Market reaction At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading 0.01% higher on the day at 1.1283. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
“While it is fairly obvious that international trade will never be the same again, it’s also pretty clear that there will be further negotiations.”
"Said that with Trump's extension of his trade war to nearly every country, we must question the links of dependency that we have with each other and, in certain matters, with the United States."Market reaction At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading 0.01% higher on the day at 1.1283. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
02:37 Japan’s National CPI climbs 3.6 % YoY in April, Core CPI rises more than expected
Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed by 3.6% YoY in April, compared to the previous reading of 3.6%, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.
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Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed by 3.6% YoY in April, compared to the previous reading of 3.6%, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.Further details unveil that the National CPI ex Fresh food arrived at 3.5% YoY in April versus 3.2% prior. The figure was above the market consensus of 3.4%.CPI ex Fresh Food, Energy rose 3.0% YoY in April, compared to the previous reading of 2.9%.Market reaction to Japan’s National CPI dataFollowing Japan’s CPI inflation data, the USD/JPY pair is down 0.08% on the day at 143.90. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
02:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) unchanged at 3.6% in April
Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) unchanged at 3.6% in April
02:30 Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) rose from previous 2.9% to 3% in April
Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) rose from previous 2.9% to 3% in April
02:30 Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) above expectations (3.4%) in April: Actual (3.5%)
Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) above expectations (3.4%) in April: Actual (3.5%)
02:20 USD/CAD posts modest gains to near 1.3850 on upbeat US PMI data
The USD/CAD pair trades with mild gains around 1.3855, snapping the four-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) due to the stronger-than-expected Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data.
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US S&P Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.3 in May, stronger than expected. Lower crude oil prices could weigh on the commodity-linked Loonie. The USD/CAD pair trades with mild gains around 1.3855, snapping the four-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) due to the stronger-than-expected Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. Data released by S&P on Thursday showed that the US Global Composite PMI rose to 52.1 in May's flash estimate from 50.6 in April. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.3 in May from 50.2 in Aprli, while the Services PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.8. The Greenback strengthens against the CAD in an immediate reaction to the upbeat PMI data.Additionally, the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 17 dropped to 227K, compared to the previous week of 229K, according to the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This reading came in below the market consensus of 230K. Continuing Jobless Claims increased by 36K to reach 1.903M for the week ending May 10.A fall in Crude Oil prices could weigh on the commodity-linked Loonie and create a tailwind for the pair. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
02:09 GBP/USD flattens ahead of UK Retail Sales
GBP/USD treaded water on Thursday, marking in a tight circle just north of the 1.3400 handle as global market sentiment suffers knock-on effects from a recent bout of worry that shot through Treasury yields this week.
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(TradingView currency heatmap, 1D timeframe)
GBP/USD daily chart
GBP/USD 1-hour chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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GBP/USD daily chart
GBP/USD 1-hour chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:01 United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence above forecasts (-22) in May: Actual (-20)
United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence above forecasts (-22) in May: Actual (-20)
01:50 New Zealand’s Retail Sales climb 0.8% QoQ in Q1 vs. 0.1% expected
New Zealand’s Retail Sales, a measure of the country’s consumer spending, rose 0.8% QoQ in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025 from the previous reading of 0.9%, according to the official data published by Statistics New Zealand on Friday. This figure came in above the market consensus of 0.1%.
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New Zealand’s Retail Sales, a measure of the country’s consumer spending, rose 0.8% QoQ in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025 from the previous reading of 0.9%, according to the official data published by Statistics New Zealand on Friday. This figure came in above the market consensus of 0.1%. Market reaction to New Zealand’s Retail SalesAt the time of writing, NZD/USD is trading 0.01% higher on the day at 0.5743. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
01:45 New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ) above forecasts (0.1%) in 1Q: Actual (0.8%)
New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ) above forecasts (0.1%) in 1Q: Actual (0.8%)
01:34 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Holds steady above 193.00 as the pair bottoms
The GBP/JPY registers modest gains as Friday’s Asian session begins, carrying on an upbeat mood as the pair gained over 0.23% on Thursday, bottoming at around the 192.00 area. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 193.14 virtually unchanged.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/JPY bounces off 192.00 zone, reclaiming 193.00 amid improving risk sentiment.Buyers must clear 193.58 and 194.00 to unlock further upside toward 195.00.Failure to hold above 192.00 risks deeper pullback to 191.00 support zone.The GBP/JPY registers modest gains as Friday’s Asian session begins, carrying on an upbeat mood as the pair gained over 0.23% on Thursday, bottoming at around the 192.00 area. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 193.14 virtually unchanged.GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookFrom a daily chart perspective, the GBP/JPY remains trading sideways, though slightly tilted to the upside. On Friday, the pair cleared a confluence support zone composed of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 192.48 and the 20-day SMA at 192.74, but sellers failed to achieve a daily close below those levels, and buyers entered the market.So far, the GBP/JPY has reclaimed the 193.00 figure. If buyers want to extend their gains, they must clear the May 22 high of 193.58 ahead of 194.00. Once done, traders could set their eyes on the Tenkan-sen at 194.33, followed by the 195.00 mark.Conversely, if GBP/JPY falls below 192.00, key support levels will be exposed, as bulls’ lack of momentum will lower prices. The next support would be the 50—and 100-day SMA confluence at 191.71, followed by the 191.00 figure.GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily British Pound PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.87% -1.02% -0.96% -0.82% -0.08% -0.25% -0.98% EUR 0.87% -0.17% -0.03% 0.11% 0.92% 0.68% -0.09% GBP 1.02% 0.17% -0.15% 0.28% 1.09% 0.86% 0.08% JPY 0.96% 0.03% 0.15% 0.15% 1.05% 0.92% 0.05% CAD 0.82% -0.11% -0.28% -0.15% 0.75% 0.57% -0.20% AUD 0.08% -0.92% -1.09% -1.05% -0.75% -0.23% -0.98% NZD 0.25% -0.68% -0.86% -0.92% -0.57% 0.23% -0.77% CHF 0.98% 0.09% -0.08% -0.05% 0.20% 0.98% 0.77% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
00:12 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Extends drop below 93.00 despite risk-on mood
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to lose ground versus the Japanese Yen (JPY) late on Thursday, depreciating over 0.15% amid a risk-on mood.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to cut rates earlier in the week continued to weigh on the Aussie Dollar, which is failing to find its form. The AUD/JPY trades at 92.28 after hitting a daily high of 92.83.AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookAfter hitting a weekly high of 93.83, the AUD/JPY fell for three consecutive days, grinding lower amid anemic trading ranges of an average of 50 pips daily. Nevertheless, traders failed to push the pair below the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), suggesting a bottom could lie ahead.For a bullish continuation, the AUD/JPY needs to clear the May 21 high at 92.83. A breach of the latter will expose 93.00, followed by the Tenkan-sen at 93.81. Once surpassed, the next stop would be 94.00.On the flip side, AUD/JPY needs to drop below the top of the Kumo at 91.70/80. Once that area is cleared, the next support would be the Senkou Span B at 90.88.AUD/JPY Price Chart – Daily Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
00:00 South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (MoM) down to -0.1% in April from previous 0%
South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (MoM) down to -0.1% in April from previous 0%
00:00 South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (YoY) dipped from previous 1.3% to 0.9% in April
South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (YoY) dipped from previous 1.3% to 0.9% in April
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