ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

23:16 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Rebounds towards 144.00 after seven-day slide
The USD/JPY snapped seven straight days of losses and climbed over 0.20% on Thursday late during the North American session. The Yen’s recent depreciation despite falling US Treasury yields and amid the lack of a catalyst could be attributed to traders booking profits ahead of the weekend.

22:47 Canadian officials nod to US tariff discussions at G7, hint that "excess capacity" may exist
Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem and Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne gave dueling talking points on Thursday, reviewing their G7 experiences this week.

Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem and Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne gave dueling talking points on Thursday, reviewing their G7 experiences this week. Both officials acknowledged that broad discussions about US tariffs took place, but warned that "excess capacity" may exist on the other side of US import taxes, which is the nicest way possible for an economist to say that demand for goods in a post-tariff environment may be too low to support the global economy's growth.Key Champagne highlightsG7 communique emphasizes the importance of G7 unity.
G7 found common ground on most important issues.
G7 will address risks stemming from low-value package shipments.
G7 ministers have more work to do on supply chains, financial crimes, growth policies.
G7 is on a good track to reduce instability and uncertainty.
There was a discussion of US tariffs in G7 meeting, but also constructive discussion on other issues such as excess capacity.
Wording of G7 communique was not watered down to appease (US Treasury Secretary) Bessent.Key Macklem highlightsTone of G7 discussions was particularly constructive.
We met pivotal moment for global economy with candor and clear focus.
G7 discussions focused on improving dialogue on tariffs, fixing problems in global trading system.
IMF, with G7 encouragement, agreed to take on more work on global imbalances.
Productive G7 finance discussions set stage for for very productive G7 leaders summit.
Canada's Q2 GDP growth to be weaker due to Q1 pull-forward of exports.
Q2 consumption going to be weaker than it was in Q1.

22:42 US Treasury yields ease after 30-year hits 19-month high on US deficit fears
US Treasury yields retreated on Thursday after the 30-year US bond yields reached their highest level in 19 months amid concerns regarding the increase of the US fiscal deficit, as Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill” passes the US House of Representatives and is on its way to the Senate.

22:23 Dow Jones Industrial Average finds its footing as bond yields ease back
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) bounced off a fresh bottom on Thursday, clawing its way out of the basement after a sharp tumble during the midweek trading window.

22:19 Forex Today: Japanese inflation data takes centre stage
The US Dollar (USD) managed to reverse part of its recent multi-day pullback on Thursday as investors assessed the stronger-than-expected US business activity readings and the US fiscal front, particularly after President Trump’s sweeping tax bill cleared the House of Representatives.

The US Dollar (USD) managed to reverse part of its recent multi-day pullback on Thursday as investors assessed the stronger-than-expected US business activity readings and the US fiscal front, particularly after President Trump’s sweeping tax bill cleared the House of Representatives.Here’s what to watch on Friday, May 23:The US Dollar Index (DXY) partially trimmed losses and left behind three daily drops in a row, coming closer to the psychological 100.00 barrier. Next on tap across the Atlantic will be the release of New Home Sales and the speech by the Fed’s Cook.EUR/USD came under fresh downside pressure on Thursday, returning to the area below the 1.1300 support. The final Q1 GDP Growth Rate in Germany will take centre stage along the ECB’s Negotiated Wage Growth. In addition, the ECB’s Lane and Schnable are due to speak.GBP/USD managed to maintain its weekly recovery in place above 1.3400 the figure despite mixed results from the UK business activity in May. The GfK’s Consumer Confidence will be released, seconded by Retail Sales.After seven consecutive daily pullbacks, USD/JPY attempted a bounce past the 144.00 hurdle, up modestly for the day. The Japanese Inflation Rate will be in the spotlight at the end of the week.AUD/USD kept its erratic price action on Thursday, this time coming under renewed downward pressure and trading at shouting distance from the 0.6400 contention zone. Next on tap in Oz will be the publication of the RBA’s Monthly CPI Indicator on May 28.WTI added to Wednesday’s pessimism and approached the key $60.00 mark per barrel on the back of speculation of further output hikes by the OPEC+.Gold traded on the back foot despite hitting multi-day peaks near the $3,350 mark per troy ounce on Thursday, always on the back of the renewed improvement in the US Dollar’s sentiment. Silver prices could not sustain fresh seven-week peaks near $33.70 per ounce, eventually receding to the area below $33.00.

22:16 US Dollar Index steadies near 100.00 as fiscal risks cap upside despite upbeat PMI data
The US Dollar index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is trading cautiously around the 100.00 mark on Thursday after recovering from a two-week low and bouncing off key support at the 99.50 psychological level earlier in the day.

DXY recovers from a two-week low after bouncing off key support at 99.50.US fiscal concerns grow after the House passed Trump’s tax bill, and Moody’s credit downgrade adds pressure.S&P Global PMI beats expectations, signaling stronger business activity in MayTechnical resistance is seen at the 21-day EMA (100.40).The US Dollar index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is trading cautiously around the 100.00 mark on Thursday after recovering from a two-week low and bouncing off key support at the 99.50 psychological level earlier in the day. While the Greenback shows signs of resilience, upside remains capped as broader risk sentiment remains fragile amid growing fiscal uncertainty in the United States (US).The US House of Representatives narrowly approved President Donald Trump’s tax bill by a single vote, intensifying fears over the country’s rising debt burden. The bill, projected to increase the federal deficit by nearly $3 trillion over the next decade, now awaits a Senate vote expected in August.Adding to the pressure, Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating to Aa1, citing unsustainable debt levels and a lack of fiscal discipline. Meanwhile, stalled trade negotiations are weighing on investors’ confidence, fueling a risk-off mood that has kept US Dollar gains in check.However, economic data released on Thursday offered a glimmer of support. US business activity accelerated in May, with the S&P Global Flash Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) climbing to 52.1 from 50.6 in April, while the Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.3 from 50.2, and Services PMI also rose to 52.3 from 50.8 — both beating expectations and highlighting resilience in the private sector despite policy headwinds.From a technical perspective, the Dollar Index remains in a corrective phase within a broader downtrend that began in March. The DXY is consolidating just beneath the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 100.40. A sustained break above this zone would open the door toward the 101.30–101.50 level, a former support-turned-resistance.Momentum indicators present a mixed picture with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 45.79, showing indecision with a lack of bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is attempting a bullish crossover. However, it remains below the zero line — a sign that bullish conviction is still lacking.On the downside, 99.50 remains a critical floor. A break below would likely attract further selling, potentially dragging the index toward the 98.80–99.00 region.

22:07 AUD/USD slips as strong US PMI data offsets fiscal jitters
The Australian Dollar (AUD) came under renewed pressure on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) found its footing, with risk appetite fading and broader markets tilting defensively.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD slips near 0.6415 as upbeat US data supports the Greenback.Jobless claims and PMI beat expectations, reinforcing a resilient US economy.Trump’s tax bill revives fiscal concerns, capping broader USD gains despite strong data.The Australian Dollar (AUD) came under renewed pressure on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) found its footing, with risk appetite fading and broader markets tilting defensively. A firm bounce in the US Dollar Index (DXY) weighed on the AUD, pushing AUD/USD down to 0.6415, a key support level that has acted as a floor in recent sessions. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.6418, hovering just above intraday lows as sellers test the resolve of near-term support.The US Dollar is supported by strong data, but longer-term risks loomThe Aussie’s pullback reflects diverging policy trajectories and economic signals. With no significant Australian data released Thursday, sentiment remains shaped by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent 25 basis point rate cut, which lowered the cash rate to 3.85%. Governor Michele Bullock has maintained a cautious tone, citing slowing inflation and global trade uncertainty.In contrast, the US Dollar found support after a string of upbeat data releases. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 18 came in at 227,000, below the 230,000 consensus, reinforcing a still-resilient labor market. Meanwhile, both the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (May, Preliminary) and Services PMI (May, Preliminary) printed at 52.3, comfortably above the 50-mark that separates contraction from expansion. The data surprised to the upside, indicating a pickup in both factory and service sector activity.However, sentiment around the Greenback remains mixed due to broader fiscal concerns. Investors are still digesting President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill”, which passed the House earlier this week. The bill proposes extending the 2017 tax cuts while reducing spending on key welfare programs. Though some see near-term stimulus potential, the legislation is expected to add over $3.8 trillion to the federal deficit in the coming decade. This has intensified concerns around US debt sustainability and credit quality, especially following recent rating downgrades. These structural concerns are limiting the Dollar’s upside, even in the face of positive near-term data.AUD/USD stalls under resistance, eyes a breakdown below 0.6415Technically, AUD/USD is clinging to a fragile support zone near 0.6415, with recent price action showing a clear lack of conviction from bulls. The pair has been unable to break convincingly above the 0.6420–0.6450 range, which aligns with both the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the mid-point of the September to April decline near 0.6428.If sellers manage to press below 0.6415, it could open the door toward the November low at 0.6338, and potentially the 0.6307 level, which marks the 38.2% Fib retracement of the October–April rally. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 51.77, slightly above the neutral level of 50. AUD/USD daily chart
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

21:52 EUR/USD slides below 1.13 as strong US data undermines Eurozone PMIs
EUR/USD tumbled below 1.1300 on Thursday as economic data from the United States (US) fared better than expected compared to Eurozone Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures for May. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades at 1.1271, down by 0.55%.

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At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades at 1.1271, down by 0.55%.The US equity markets turned slightly positive as President Donald Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed the House of Representatives. Next, the Senate will discuss and tweak Trump’s tax and spending cut proposal before passing the bill.The news boosted the Greenback, which extended its appreciation against the shared currency as US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) for May exceeded estimates, reaffirming the economy's solidity.Other data showed that the number of US citizens applying for unemployment benefits dipped compared to estimates and the previous week's data, a relief for the Federal Reserve (Fed), which has the dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.Fed Governor Christopher Waller crossed the news wires and said that if tariffs are close to 10%, the economy would be in good shape for the second half of 2025. He added that in that scenario, the Fed could resume its easing cycle later in the year.Across the pond, the HCOB preliminary PMIs in France, Germany and the Eurozone unexpectedly contracted in May. At the same time, the German IFO Business Climate survey improved slightly in May.In the meantime, some European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers crossed the wires. Yannis Stournaras questioned the safety of the US Dollar and created an opportunity for the Euro.ECB Vice-President Luis De Guindos said inflation could return to the ECB’s 2% target soon while economic growth turns weaker. ECB’s Boris Vujčić noted that inflation could get close to the target by the end of 2025.This week, the EU’s economic docket will feature GDP data in Germany and ECB speakers. The US schedule will feature housing data and Fed speakers.EUR/USD daily market movers: Upbeat US economic data weighs on the EuroThe US House of Representatives has approved the Trump tax bill and is coming to the US Senate. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said the budget's approval would add $3.8 trillion to the $36.2 trillion debt over the next decade.The S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI for May rose to 52.3, up from 50.2 and well above the 50.1 estimate, signaling a stronger rebound in factory activity. The Flash Services PMI also improved, climbing to 52.3 from 50.8, beating forecasts and pointing to continued strength in the services sector.US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 17 came in at 227K, slightly below the previous week's 229K and expectations of 230K, reinforcing signs of a resilient labor market.The Euro weakened as the Eurozone’s HCOB Flash PMI in May was worse than expected, highlighting the ongoing economic slowdown. The Services PMI fell from 50.1 to 48.9, below estimates of 50.3, and the Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.4, up from 49.0 in April, exceeding forecasts.The German HCOB Services PMI dipped from 49.0 to 47.2, below forecasts for a 49.5 increase. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI rose by 48.8, up from April’s 48.4, below forecasts for a 48.9 increase.The German IFO Business Climate improved from 86.9 in April to 87.5 in May. Estimates expected a reading of 87.4. The report said that companies are becoming less gloomy about their prospects. “The German economy is slowly regaining its footing," Ifo president Clemens Fuest said.EUR/USD technical outlook: Poised to remain below 1.1300 for the rest of the dayFrom a technical perspective, EUR/USD is set for a pause in its ongoing rally. A ‘bearish engulfing ‘ chart pattern looms, which could pave the way for further downside as the pair hit a two-day low of 1.1255.Although momentum remains bullish, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the RSI is edging towards the 50-neutral line, indicating buyers are losing momentum.If EUR/USD prints a daily close below 1.1300, this could pave the way to test 1.1255. Once surpassed, the next floor level would be the 1.1200 mark, ahead of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1138.On the flip side, if EUR/USD climbs past 1.13, further gains are seen, with the first resistance being the latest cycle high at 1.1362, the May 21 daily peak. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

21:26 EU Economic Commissioner Dombrovskis: G7 ministers discussed further EU energy sanctions on Russia
The Group of 7 (G7) finance leaders wrapped up its most recent summit on Thursday, with EU Economic Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis characterizing the talks as “positive and successful,” particularly in advancing support for Ukraine and addressing global economic imbalances.

The Group of 7 (G7) finance leaders wrapped up its most recent summit on Thursday, with EU Economic Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis characterizing the talks as “positive and successful,” particularly in advancing support for Ukraine and addressing global economic imbalances.Key among the discussions was a fresh push on sanctions targeting Russia. Dombrovskis revealed that G7 ministers proposed adjustments to the existing oil price cap on Russian crude, with a new suggested level of $50 per barrel. However, central bank policymakers at the meeting stopped just short of going too far into discussions of new sanctions, although several ideas about energy-related restrictions were floated as potential topics for future discussion.Key highlightsG7 leaders had a positive, successful meeting.
G7 advanced discussion in support of Ukraine, addressing economic imbalances.
Ministers made proposals on next package if EU sanctions on Russian energy.
There was a suggestion to lower Crude Oil price cap to $50 per barrel.
G7 did not go in-depth on Russian sanctions.
Trade discussions were a "difficult topic".
The EU sees US Tariffs as creating negative economic effects, US takes a different view.
Still committed to finding mutually acceptable solutions.
G7 ministers did not directly negotiate trade, "per se".
Global corporate tax deal was not on the table at this meeting.

21:21 Mexican Peso gains as inflation surprises, but US risks persist
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is gaining traction against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, supported by a hotter-than-expected mid-May inflation reading.

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Solid March retail sales and Q1 GDP ease recession fears, reinforcing support for MXN.Stronger-than-expected price data prompts markets to dial back expectations for near-term rate reductions.Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” raises deficit concerns, dampening investor confidence in the Greenback.The Mexican Peso (MXN) is gaining traction against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, supported by a hotter-than-expected mid-May inflation reading. The data has prompted investors to reconsider the timeline for further interest rate cuts by Banxico, leading to increased demand for the Peso and pushing USD/MXN below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) to trade near 19.3096 at the time of writing.At the same time, developments in the United States continue to exert significant influence over the pair’s short-term trajectory. Despite inflation gradually aligning with the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, a weaker US Dollar has emerged due to broader concerns, namely, a credit rating downgrade, deteriorating sentiment, and the passage of President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.”Together, these developments are weighing on the US Dollar and reinforcing MXN strength, particularly as Mexican monetary policy appears more data-dependent than dovish for now.Mexican Peso daily digest: US fiscal concerns and Mexican data resilience steer USD/MXN sentimentAs the US Dollar (USD) continues to shape broader market dynamics, shifts in sentiment, driven by fiscal policy, economic data, and Fed guidance, remain critical to the trajectory of USD/MXN.This week, sentiment surrounding the Greenback took another hit following the House of Representatives’ approval of President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” a controversial extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.The bill, which decreases funding for programs such as Medicare and food stamps, while reducing taxes on overtime, tips, and additional income, has sparked concern that low- and middle-income Americans may bear the brunt of the changes. While short-term growth could benefit, the package is projected to significantly widen the US federal deficit over the next decade, raising red flags about the long-term sustainability of US government debt.As debt levels rise, so too does the cost of servicing that debt, especially under a high-interest rate environment. To maintain investor demand, the US must offer higher yields, inadvertently increasing perceived credit risk and weakening confidence in the Dollar. This has led some investors to seek refuge in alternative currencies, including the Mexican Peso (MXN).Meanwhile, this week’s release of March retail sales and Thursday’s Growth Domestic Product (GDP) print have helped ease concerns over Mexico’s economic health, further supporting MXN strength.In summary, USD/MXN remains highly sensitive to any economic releases or policy shifts that alter growth, inflation, or monetary policy expectations in either country.Mexican Peso technical analysis: USD/MXN risks deeper losses below 19.30 as bearish pressure buildsUSD/MXN has extended its downside move after failing to hold above the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), now acting as near-term resistance around 19.4080. The pair is trading around 19.3096, with bearish momentum building. A decisive close below 19.30 could expose deeper support at the early May low of 19.11, followed by the October 2024 swing low at 19.00.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has crossed into neutral-bearish territory, indicating potential for further losses unless bulls reclaim control above the 10-day and 20-day SMA at 19.46. Short-term bias favors further downside below that level.However, if bears gain traction below 19.300, the May low near 19.235 and a continuation of USD weakness may allow sellers to push prices toward the October low of 19.111.Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator remains below the neutral zone of 50. Since the 30 mark is considered a potential oversold territory, the bearish trend currently remains intact. If prices fall below 19.20, it could open the door to the October low of around 19.11, paving the way towards the 19.00 mark. On the other hand, if USD strength resurges and prices rise above the descending trendline, USD/XN could see a retest of the April low near 19.47, bringing the 20-day SMA into play at 19.53.USD/MXN daily chart
Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

20:53 GBP/USD holds above 1.3400 as US PMI strength offsets fiscal worries
The British Pound (GBP) is navigating choppy price action against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, holding above the 1.3400 psychological mark to trade near 1.3410 during the American session, as traders digest the latest business activity data from both sides of the Atlantic.

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GBP/USD consolidates near 1.3410 on Thursday, retreating from a three-year high as traders assess PMI data and broader macro risks.US PMIs beat expectations across services and manufacturing, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on holding rates steady.UK Composite PMI improves but remains below 50, with manufacturing still in contraction despite a rebound in services.The British Pound (GBP) is navigating choppy price action against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, holding above the 1.3400 psychological mark to trade near 1.3410 during the American session, as traders digest the latest business activity data from both sides of the Atlantic. The pair shows signs of indecision after retreating from a three-year high of 1.3468 reached on Wednesday. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US Dollar against the six major currencies, is showing a mild recovery from the two-week low, ending its three-day decline to trade just below the 100.00 mark. In May, the US economy showed stronger momentum, with the S&P Global Flash Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rising to 52.1 from 50.6 in April, signaling a faster pace of expansion. Manufacturing activity improved notably, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 52.3 from 50.2, while the Services PMI increased to 52.3 from 50.8. The broad-based improvement indicates resilience in both sectors as the demand remains steady, keeping the Federal Reserve (Fed) on a cautious path and reinforcing the case for holding interest rates steady in the near term.Conversely, the United Kingdom’s (UK) S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 49.4 from 48.5 in April, indicating a slower pace of contraction in private-sector activity. The services sector returned to expansion territory, with the Services PMI increasing to 50.2 from 49.0, while manufacturing remained in contraction, as the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 45.1 from 45.4. The data offers a mixed view of the UK economy, with strength in services providing some support to the British Pound, but underlying weakness in manufacturing still weighing on the outlookHowever, the upbeat business activity data on the US front is tempered by broader concerns over the US fiscal outlook. The House of Representatives passed a controversial tax and spending package expected to widen the federal deficit by nearly $3.8 trillion over the next decade. This follows Moody’s decision last week to downgrade the US credit rating to Aa1, citing rising debt levels and a worsening budget trajectory.In the UK, UBS forecasts that the Bank of England (BoE) will reduce interest rates to 3.75% by the end of 2025 to address inflation and wage growth pressures. Adding to the complexity, the UK's recent trade agreement with the US has drawn criticism from the European Commission, which accuses the UK of potentially breaching World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. The deal, which includes tariff reductions on certain goods, may strain the UK's post-Brexit relationship with the European Union (EU) and contribute to broader market uncertainty.Market participants are now turning their attention to upcoming data releases and central bank commentary. The UK's GfK Consumer Confidence index for May is scheduled for release on Friday. Additionally, April's retail sales data will be closely watched for signs of consumer spending trends. In the US, speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, are anticipated to shed light on the central bank's policy outlook. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

19:28 Gold price slips below $3,300 amid firm US Dollar after Trump budget vote
Gold price dropped some 0.48% on Thursday and failed to hold onto the $3,300 figure after reaching a two-week high of $3,345 earlier.

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A strong US Dollar pressures the golden metal as US Treasury yields retreated from daily highs as the US House of Representatives approved Trump’s budget, which now will be sent for approval to the Senate. XAU/USD trades at $3,289, down 0.83%.The market mood has improved slightly but remains fragile as it was sponsored by Moody’s downgrade to US government debt. The fiscal package so far approved by the US lower house is projected to add $4 trillion to the debt ceiling.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, has paired some of its previous weekly losses and is up a modest 0.18% at 99.86, a headwind for the Dollar-denominated precious metal.Nevertheless, the outlook for Bullion prices remains optimistic due to geopolitical conflicts. Newswires revealed that Israel is preparing to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities if talks between the latter and the US fall, according to Walla citing sources.On the data front, S&P Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) in the US improved, an indication that the economy remains solid. Earlier, the US Department of Labor revealed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits edged lower compared to the prior reading and beneath forecasts.Bullion traders are eyeing the release of US housing data and Fed speakers on Friday.Gold daily market movers: Tumbles despite falling US yields on upbeat US dataUS Treasury bond yields halted their advance with the US 10-year Treasury note yield falling three basis points (bps) to 4.55%. Meanwhile, US real yields are also down four bps at 2.207%.Gold prices will likely remain underpinned by a sour sentiment toward US assets, namely the Greenback, equities and bonds. This was spurred by controversial US trade policies, along with Moody’s downgrading the US government rating from AAA negative to AA1 stable and an approval of a US budget that will increase the deficit.The US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash in May improved from 50.2 to 52.3, exceeding estimates of 50.1. The Services Flash PMI for the same period rose by 52.3, above forecasts and the previous reading of 50.8.US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 17 rose by 227K, down from the prior’s week 229K and below forecasts of 230K, indicating the labor market remains solid.Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that markets are monitoring fiscal policy. He added that if tariffs are close to 10%, the economy would be in good shape for H2, and the Fed could be in position to cut later in the year.Data from the Chicago Board of Trade suggests that traders are pricing in 50.5 basis points of easing toward the end of the year.XAU/USD technical outlook: Retreats below $3,300 as bulls take a breatherGold price retraces from weekly highs below $3,300 as traders booked profits and demand for safe haven assets has diminished. Nevertheless, the overall trend remains bullish, as confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remains above its 50-neutral line despite leaning on the downside.Hence, XAU/USD first resistance would be $3,300 followed by $3,345, the current weekly peak. Once breached, $3,400 is up next, and on further strength $3,438, the May 7 swing high, would be up next.For a bearish reversal, Gold bears must achieve a daily close below $3,300. Once cleared, immediate support emerges at a May 20 daily low of $3,204, ahead of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,191. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

18:35 United States 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.22%
United States 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.22%

18:04 Silver Price Forecast: Silver retreats from seven-week highs
Silver (XAG/USD) reverses sharply lower on Thursday after briefly testing $33.70, its highest level in seven weeks, showing signs of near-term fatigue after a strong upside breakout on Wednesday to trade around $32.95 during the American session.

XAG/USD slips from $33.70 to $32.95 despite early strength, down over 2.0% intraday.Stronger-than-expected US PMI lifts sentiment around the US Dollar.Technicals suggest bulls still hold control above key support, but short-term consolidation is likely.Silver (XAG/USD) reverses sharply lower on Thursday after briefly testing $33.70, its highest level in seven weeks, showing signs of near-term fatigue after a strong upside breakout on Wednesday to trade around $32.95 during the American session. The pullback was driven by a mild rebound in the US Dollar and a technical rejection below the $34.00 psychological level near April’s high.The pullback in the white metal was ahead of the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) release, indicating that the retreat is primarily technical and driven by early US Dollar stabilization and profit booking following a sharp breakout on Wednesday.However, from a technical perspective, the broader trend bias still appears constructive, with Silver maintaining key structural support. The daily chart highlights a clean breakout from a multi-week symmetrical triangle formation, which had been compressing price action continuously since early May. Spot prices surged through the descending trendline resistance on Tuesday, with follow-through buying lifting the metal toward the $33.70 handle — a level not seen since early April.Thursday’s decline appears to be a classic breakout retest, with price action cooling off toward the $32.50–32.70 support zone. This region is technically significant, aligning with the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the former resistance line of the broken triangle. So far, the market has respected this area, suggesting that buyers may still be in control of the broader trend despite the short-term pullback.Momentum indicators reflect a market in transition. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near the neutral 52 level, showing no immediate overbought conditions but signaling a loss of bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains marginally positive, with the signal line still below the MACD line, indicating that the bullish crossover earlier this week may still be in play, though it's showing early signs of flattening.From a macro standpoint, the US Dollar Index (DXY) steadies below the 100.00 mark after a three-day slide. The rebound comes ahead of the S&P Global US PMI data, which later surprised to the upside. However, Silver’s pullback had already begun before the data release, suggesting that technical flows, rather than macro-driven, were driving the price action.Looking ahead, sustained support above $32.50 will be key to preserving the bullish breakout structure. A daily close below this level would undermine the pattern and could open the door for a deeper correction toward $32.00 and beyond. On the upside, a move back above $33.50 would encourage fresh buying and pave the way for a retest of the April highs near $34.25.

18:02 United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity dipped from previous -5 to -10 in May
United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity dipped from previous -5 to -10 in May

18:01 USD/CAD holds ground, weak Canadian data caps losses
The US Dollar (USD) continues to face pressure from broad-based macro concerns, including high fiscal deficits, prolonged elevated interest rates, and rising geopolitical tensions.

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USD/CAD faces resistance near a crucial technical level at 1.3944.Canada's factory prices fell again, increasing chances of a rate cut and weakening the CAD.Support at the November low of 1.3823 holds as RSI shows weak momentum but not yet oversold.The US Dollar (USD) continues to face pressure from broad-based macro concerns, including high fiscal deficits, prolonged elevated interest rates, and rising geopolitical tensions. These structural issues have driven a gradual shift away from the greenback, with investors seeking diversification into other currencies and safe-haven assets.Despite these headwinds, intermittent support for the USD persists. Recent US economic data showed resilient services and manufacturing PMI figures, signaling continued activity in key sectors. However, falling housing price expectations have raised concerns about the sustainability of US growth, especially in a sector traditionally critical to consumer wealth and sentiment.On the Canadian side, the economic picture has weakened, helping limit USD/CAD’s downside. Most notably, the Industrial Product Price Index (IPP) for April declined 0.8% MoM, down from a 0.5% increase in March, and below the expected -0.5%. This sharper-than-anticipated drop highlights softening factory gate prices, suggesting lower inflationary pressure at the producer level.This has led markets to price in a higher probability of a Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cut, weakening the Canadian Dollar (CAD) vs the US Dollar, and supporting USD/CAD near recent lows.USD/CAD clings to Moving Average resistance at 1.3886On the daily chart, USD/CAD is retesting resistance at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3886. A sustained move above this level would bring the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September low to the February high at 1.3944 into focus, a key level that has repeatedly capped rallies since early May.If bulls manage to break above 1.3944, the next target would be the psychological 1.4000 level, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.4026, which marks a major barrier for any trend reversal.USD/CAD daily chart
On the downside, USD/CAD continues to find support at the November 2024 low of 1.3823, which has held through recent selloffs. A break below that level and psychological support at 1.3800 would expose the 78.6% Fib retracement at 1.3714, and potentially the September high at 1.3648.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 44.47, below the neutral 50 mark. While this reflects bearish momentum, the reading is not yet in oversold territory, suggesting that further downside is possible before a technical rebound.
Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

17:44 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Slides to near 0.5900
The NZD/USD pair falls to near the round level of 0.5900 during North American trading hours on Thursday. The Kiwi pair slumps after the release of the stronger-than-projected United States (US) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for May.

17:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above forecasts (115B) in May 16: Actual (120B)
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above forecasts (115B) in May 16: Actual (120B)

17:00 United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) registered at 4M, below expectations (4.1M) in April
United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) registered at 4M, below expectations (4.1M) in April

17:00 United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) climbed from previous -5.9% to -0.5% in April
United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) climbed from previous -5.9% to -0.5% in April

16:58 ECB’s Nagel: Interest rate level is not restrictive
Joachim Nagel, President of the Bundesbank and member of the ECB’s Governing Council (GC), argued that the bank’s current interest rate level is not considered as restrictive.

Joachim Nagel, President of the Bundesbank and member of the ECB’s Governing Council (GC), argued that the bank’s current interest rate level is not considered as restrictive.

16:45 United States S&P Global Services PMI above expectations (50.8) in May: Actual (52.3)
United States S&P Global Services PMI above expectations (50.8) in May: Actual (52.3)

16:45 United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.3, above expectations (50.1) in May
United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.3, above expectations (50.1) in May

16:45 United States S&P Global Composite PMI increased to 52.1 in May from previous 50.6
United States S&P Global Composite PMI increased to 52.1 in May from previous 50.6

16:36 USD Index turns highly volatile near 99.50 after Trump’s bill advances to Senate
The US Dollar (USD) exhibits volatile action during North American trading on Thursday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) showing wild moves near 99.50 after the United States (US) House of Representatives approved President Donald Trump’s tax bill narrowly and passed it to the Senate.

16:34 EUR/GBP pulls back as Eurozone business activity contracts, UK services gain momentum
The EUR/GBP cross edges lower on Thursday, retreating after a three-day rally to trade near 0.8420 at the start of the American session as investors digest a mixed batch of economic data from both sides.

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The EUR/GBP pair retreats on Thursday, snapping a three-day rally to trade near 0.8420 during the American session.Weaker-than-expected Eurozone PMI data increases pressure on the Euro.UK services activity shows signs of recovery, while inflation jumps to 3.5% in April, reducing the likelihood of a near-term BoE rate cut.The EUR/GBP cross edges lower on Thursday, retreating after a three-day rally to trade near 0.8420 at the start of the American session as investors digest a mixed batch of economic data from both sides. The Euro (EUR) is under modest pressure following weak Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures, while the British Pound (GBP) holds relatively firm after the United Kingdom’s (UK) inflation unexpectedly accelerated in April.The flash HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 49.5 in May from 50.4 in April, missing market expectations of 50.7. This decline was primarily driven by a sharper downturn in the services sector as the Services PMI dropped to 48.9 from 50.1, undershooting forecasts of 50.3. In contrast, the Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.4 from 49.0, topping expectations of 49.3.The softer PMI figures reinforce concerns about a fragile recovery in the Eurozone, pressuring the Euro and strengthening the case for a European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut in June. Markets now see a roughly 90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the ECB's June 5 meeting but have priced in only one more reduction for the rest of the year, suggesting that the deposit rate could bottom out at 1.75%, according to Reuters.Adding to the pressure, Belgium’s central bank governor, Pierre Wunsch, said the ECB may eventually need to cut rates to “slightly below” 2% as ongoing global trade tensions pose downside risks to both inflation and growth.Meanwhile, in the UK, the S&P Global UK Composite PMI rose to 49.4 in May from 48.5 in April, indicating a slight easing in the business downturn. The services sector showed marginal recovery as the Services PMI rose to 50.2 in April from 49 in March, beating market expectations slightly. The manufacturing sector continued to struggle with its PMI falling to 45.1 in April from 45.4 in March.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Wednesday that annual inflation rose sharply to 3.5% in April, up from 2.6% in March and well above market expectations of 3.3%.The expansion in the services sector, combined with hotter-than-expected inflation, could give the Bank of England (BoE) reason to hold off on cutting interest rates at its next meeting. At the same time, the contraction in the manufacturing sector highlights underlying weakness in the UK economy, meaning the BoE is unlikely to move aggressively in either direction and could hold the interest rate unchanged in the near term. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

16:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ dipped from previous $687.3B to $667.5B
Russia Central Bank Reserves $ dipped from previous $687.3B to $667.5B

15:35 US: Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 227K last week
US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance receded a tad to 227K for the week ending May 17, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This print came in below initial estimates and the previous week's unrevised tally of 229K.

15:35 Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM): 0.3% (March) vs previous 2.5%
Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM): 0.3% (March) vs previous 2.5%

15:30 Canada Industrial Product Price (MoM) came in at -0.8% below forecasts (-0.5%) in April
Canada Industrial Product Price (MoM) came in at -0.8% below forecasts (-0.5%) in April

15:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims above forecasts (1.89M) in May 9: Actual (1.903M)
United States Continuing Jobless Claims above forecasts (1.89M) in May 9: Actual (1.903M)

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 227K, below expectations (230K) in May 16
United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 227K, below expectations (230K) in May 16

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average rose from previous 230.5K to 231.5K in May 16
United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average rose from previous 230.5K to 231.5K in May 16

15:30 United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell from previous -0.03 to -0.25 in April
United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell from previous -0.03 to -0.25 in April

15:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index below expectations (-2.2%) in April: Actual (-3%)
Canada Raw Material Price Index below expectations (-2.2%) in April: Actual (-3%)

15:26 GBP/USD turns cautious on UK PMI Manufacturing miss, with focus on US data
The British Pound Sterling (GBP) has been gaining steadily against the US Dollar (USD) since January, reflecting diverging economic conditions between the United Kingdom and the United States.

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Wednesday’s UK Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) preliminary data rose to 50.2 in May, beating analyst forecasts of 50 and increasing from April’s reading of 49. The data represents an increase in expectations that the UK services sector expanded in May, which translates to a resilient service sector.In contrast, the Preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) missed analyst forecasts, printing at 45.1, below both the previous 45.4 reading and the 46 consensus.Decreasing confidence in the manufacturing sector is often reflective of economic activity declining, weighing on the growth forecasts for the UK economy.For the US, Thursday’s economic agenda includes a large number of important data releases, including the Manufacturing and Services PMI preliminary results.The Fed and investors will be monitoring Initial Jobless Claims and Home Sales data for April to gauge the health of the labour market and the housing market, which are perceived as leading indicators that have a major impact on interest rate expectations and consumer confidence.GBP/USD technical analysis: Potential Cup and Handle hints at bullish continuation toward 1.400GBP/USD is facing its second consecutive day of losses after rising to its highest level in three years. With the pair temporarily testing the key psychological resistance level of 1.346, a minor pullback has occurred, pushing price action into a narrow range as investors look for a fresh catalyst that will likely arise from the fundamental differences between the two economies.Meanwhile, the bullish trend pertaining to the pair since January currently remains intact, with the 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) providing additional barriers of support at the respective levels of 1.332 and 1.315, above another key psychological support level of 1.300.GBP/USD daily chartThe 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of the May 2021 to September 2022 move has stepped in as resistance around 1.341, a level that capped the upside move in September and April.With the bullish trend currently in play, a pause in upside momentum and a correction after a prolonged bull trend has resulted in a potential Cup and Handle pattern, a bullish continuation pattern that appears when prices retest a critical level of prior resistance before consolidating for a brief period of time. The pattern is confirmed when prices breach the prior barrier, resulting in a continuation of the prior trend.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading above the neutral 50 level at 60, representing that the short-term trend currently remains in favour of the bulls.However, in order for the uptrend to persist, a clear break of the 1.34 zone is required, which could open the door for the next psychological level of 1.35 and a potential retest of the February 2022 high at 1.364.In contrast, a move below 1.3412 may allow sellers to push prices back below the 20-day SMA and toward the 50-day SMA at 1.353.
GDP FAQs What is GDP and how is it recorded? A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.

15:00 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets forecasts (0.8%) in 1Q
Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets forecasts (0.8%) in 1Q

15:00 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets expectations (0.2%) in 1Q
Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets expectations (0.2%) in 1Q

15:00 Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation meets forecasts (0.16%) in May
Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation meets forecasts (0.16%) in May

15:00 Mexico 1st half-month Inflation above forecasts (-0.1%) in May: Actual (0.09%)
Mexico 1st half-month Inflation above forecasts (-0.1%) in May: Actual (0.09%)

14:59 Fed's Waller: Tariffs will be a one time price increase
In an interview with Fox Business on Thursday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller reiterated that he continues to believe that tariffs will cause a one-time increase in prices and added that the Fed's standard playbook is to look through one-time price impacts, per Reuters.

14:51 ECB Accounts: Inflation expected to hover close to target of 2% for remainder of year
The accounts of the European Central Bank's (ECB) April policy meeting showed on Thursday that policymakers had increased confidence that inflation would return to target in line with the March baseline projections.

14:41 JPY outperforming with modest gain – Scotiabank
Japanese Yen (JPY) is entering Thursday’s NA session with a modest gain against the US Dollar (USD), a lone performer in an environment of mild (albeit broad-based) USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Japanese Yen (JPY) is entering Thursday’s NA session with a modest gain against the US Dollar (USD), a lone performer in an environment of mild (albeit broad-based) USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Markets consider strong machine orders and disappointing PMI’s"Domestic core machine orders for March were much stronger than expected, but somewhat tempered by the release of disappointment across the preliminary PMIs with a contractionary manufacturing print of 49 and a softer services print barely holding on to expansion at 50.8." "Japan’s bond market appears to have settled somewhat, trading in tandem with global peers while leaving yield spreads largely unchanged. Finally, US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Kato are said to have met at the G7 meetings in Banff, affirming their endorsement of market-determined exchange rates."

14:35 GBP trading well despite deeply contractionary mfg PMI – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is down 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10, trading relatively well despite a generally disappointing preliminary PMI release, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is down 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10, trading relatively well despite a generally disappointing preliminary PMI release, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Trend in GBP/USD remains bullish"The manufacturing print disappointed with a relatively deep contractionary print of 45.1 while services climbed just above the expansion threshold, printing 50.2.""The trend in GBP/USD remains bullish, with consolidation just below Wednesday’s multi-year high. The RSI is just below 60, leaving ample room for further near-term gains. Near-term support is expected below 1.33."

14:31 CAD steady, risk reversal pricing, technical lean bullish – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is down marginally, reflecting the minor lift in the US Dollar (USD) generally more than anything else.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is down marginally, reflecting the minor lift in the US Dollar (USD) generally more than anything else. Spot remains close to our fair value estimate (1.3845) while overall mood music on the CAD is turning more bullish, essentially reflecting the increasingly negative perspective investors have on the USD outlook, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Weekly price patterns are shaping up bearishly for the USD"This has been reflected in risk reversal pricing in other major currency pairs but CAD riskies have been catching up. USD/CAD 3m riskies are trading at 24bps, puts over calls, the largest premium for USD puts since 2009. Other tenors are reflecting similar shifts as investor demand for downside protection in funds ramps up. This is very unusual. BoC Governor Macklem and Finance Minister Champagne hold a press conference at 14.30ET at the conclusion of the Banff G7 meeting.""While the minister and governor will address issues covered at the meeting, questions are likely to drift into domestic concerns—inflation and the rate outlook—to some extent. Higher core inflation for April makes a June rate cut highly unlikely but whether Governor Macklem chimes in on the near-term rate outlook is debatable. Market expectations have been pared back significantly. No comment on the near-term rate outlook from Macklem may see market expectations trimmed back a little more.""USD/CAD has squeezed a little higher from yesterday’s intraday low just above 1.38 but gains are not compelling and run counter to the generally USD-negative tone on the longer run charts. Intraday, daily and—just about—weekly trend momentum studies are tilting USD bearish which should limit USD gains to the 1.39 area (former support, now resistance). Weekly price patterns are shaping up bearishly for the USD which may mean more pressure on the 1.3745/50 major support zone can develop in the next few weeks."

14:27 USD consolidates as Treasurys steady – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is consolidating. Global market sentiment remains soft, following yesterday’s hefty US equity market losses. Asian and European stocks are down and US equity futures are narrowly mixed, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The US Dollar (USD) is consolidating. Global market sentiment remains soft, following yesterday’s hefty US equity market losses. Asian and European stocks are down and US equity futures are narrowly mixed, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD consolidates, helped by steadier Treasurys"Global bonds are softer but US Treasurys have steadied and the minor outperformance is providing a prop for the USD so far today. Yesterday’s 20Y Treasury auction was soft. The auction tailed and details showed bid/cover and 'indirect' bid interest— a reflection of foreign demand for US bond product—down a little versus the last auction. Both were in line with recent trends, however, suggesting that investors remain willing to purchase US bond product but at the right price (yield)." "With investor focus on US fiscal policy intensifying amid US budget negotiations, the performance of US Treasury bonds will likely continue to influence the USD and risk appetite. Investors may be resigning themselves to the fact that there is unlikely to be any fiscal consolidation for the foreseeable future. A further rise in US yields may weigh on risk appetite but fail to provide the USD with much support. The DXY decoupled from higher US yields and wider (more supportive) spreads following President Trump’s 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement, reflecting investor worries about the impact of trade policy on the economy and the broader appeal of US assets." "On the day so far, the JPY and TWD are moderate outperformers. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Finance Minister Kato but they did not discuss specific FX levels, however. There is a little more US data to focus on this morning—claims and PMI data—but attention will likely remain on Washington and the status of progress on President Trump’s tax bill. Despite the minor gain in the USD today, scope for broader gains is limited as investors remain concerned about the risk of rising US deficits. The DXY may find it hard to progress much above the 100.00/25 area."

14:24 EUR soft but in range as markets digest disappointing PMIs/stronger IFO – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is entering Thursday’s NA session with a 0.3% decline against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies with the exception of SEK and NZD, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Euro (EUR) is entering Thursday’s NA session with a 0.3% decline against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies with the exception of SEK and NZD, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. ECB messaging remains dovish"The latest round of preliminary PMIs were generally disappointing with contractionary (sub-50) prints for the euro zone, Germany, and France. Germany’s IFO sentiment offered a somewhat better read, improving and surprising on the both the business climate (current) and expectations sub -components." "On trade, US/EU talks have not yet begun but the EU is said to have sent a revised proposal to Washington, which includes a reduction of tariffs on non-sensitive agricultural products and industrial goods. ECB messaging remains dovish as policymakers maintain a bias to a June cut while discussing the extent of further easing by year-end.""The medium-term trend remains bullish, given the sequence of higher lows and higher highs since February. The mid-May low, bouncing off of support around the 50-day MA (1.1141 currently, 1.11 at the time) was important in cementing the bull trend. Near-term resistance is limited ahead of 1.15 and near-term support is expected below 1.12."

14:20 Bessent and Kato commit to market-determined exchange rates – Commerzbank
This US administration does not formulate any doctrine or strategy in important policy areas that could serve as guidelines for current policy measures.

This US administration does not formulate any doctrine or strategy in important policy areas that could serve as guidelines for current policy measures. Instead of such a planned approach, markets see hectic actionism here and there (just think of the DOGE authority), partial backpedaling (several times in tariff policy), and projects that were launched with great fanfare but then not pursued, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. No sign of 'Mar-a-Lago Accord' despite G7 talks "We have seen talks between Bessent and a foreign finance minister on the subject of exchange rate policy: he met with his Japanese counterpart Katsunobu Kato on the sidelines of the G7 finance ministers' meeting. It had already been leaked in advance that they wanted to talk about exchange rates. This naturally aroused suspicion that Bessent might now get serious for the first time and might push the Japanese side toward a kind of bilateral Mar-a-Lago accord. In other words, the situation remains as it was when Bessent's and Kato's and the other G7 finance ministers' predecessors made promises to each other back in 2013: exchange rates shall be determined by the foreign exchange market, not by finance ministers.""Since the end of 2020, USD/JPY has gained around 40%. At times, it was almost 60%. It is quite obvious that Japanese monetary policy – which is completely out of sync with the rest of the G7 – is a major reason for this JPY weakness. If there were any case where the US side might have an interest in coordinated manipulation of exchange rates, it would surely be the yen. The fact that Bessent did not push for such an accord in his meeting with Kato shows that the US government is clearly not pursuing this issue at present.""The fact that USD/JPY only received a very short-term boost from this news means, in my opinion, that the possibility of an artificial, coordinated weakening of the USD was never seriously priced in by the market. We should therefore not expect too much market reaction. “Mar-a-Lago accord” was more a topic for polite dinner conversation than for the market. The dollar is under pressure for entirely different reasons. See below."

14:20 AUD/USD slips below 0.6420 ahead of US PMI data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) inches lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, erasing earlier gains. The AUD/USD pair is holding within a narrow range, down 0.50% at the time of writing, to trade around 0.6420 in the European trading hours.

14:12 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Flattens around 143.50
The USD/JPY pair recoups its initial losses and flattens around 143.50 during European trading hours on Thursday. The pair rebounds as the US Dollar (USD) attracts bids on Thursday after a three-day losing streak.

14:09 AUD slips as soft PMI reinforces RBA dovishness – BBH
AUD/USD remains under pressure as weak May PMI data supports expectations for RBA rate cuts. The pair struggles to hold above its 200-DMA, with markets now pricing in 75bps of easing over the next year, BBH FX analysts report.

AUD/USD remains under pressure as weak May PMI data supports expectations for RBA rate cuts. The pair struggles to hold above its 200-DMA, with markets now pricing in 75bps of easing over the next year, BBH FX analysts report. AUD/USD stalls below 200-DMA amid rate cut bets"AUD/USD is struggling to sustain a break above its 200-day moving average at 0.6450. Australia reported soft May PMI, strengthening the RBA’s dovish policy stance." "The composite PMI dipped 0.4 points to a three-month low at 50.6, the services PMI dropped 0.5 points to a six-month low at 50.5, and the manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 51.7. RBA cash rate futures price-in a total of 75bps of cuts to a low of 3.10% in the next 12 months."

14:04 USD/JPY slips as JGB yields surge and BoJ signals caution – BBH
USD/JPY had a brief uptick after the US and Japan confirmed existing currency policy and did not discuss foreign exchange levels. USD/JPY subsequently edged lower while Japanese government bond yields are breaking higher at the long-end of the curve, BBH FX analysts report.

USD/JPY had a brief uptick after the US and Japan confirmed existing currency policy and did not discuss foreign exchange levels. USD/JPY subsequently edged lower while Japanese government bond yields are breaking higher at the long-end of the curve, BBH FX analysts report. JPY steady as BoJ eyes June policy review"Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Asahi Noguchi acknowledged the 'sudden' move in yields but noted 'I can’t simply conclude that they are abnormal…so I believe it would be inappropriate to intervene without reason and attempt to manipulate the situation in any way'.""The BOJ is currently trimming its JGB purchases by about ¥400 billion per quarter and will conduct an interim assessment of the plan for the reduction of its purchase amount of JGBs at the June 2025 Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM). Given the recent turmoil in the JGB market, we expect the bank to maintain the current pace and underscore that it stands ready to make one-off purchases as needed to smooth market functioning.""Japan private sector activity slips back into contraction in May. The composite PMI fell to 49.8 vs. 51.2 in April, the services PMI dropped 1.6 points to 50.8, and the manufacturing PMI improved 0.3 points to 49.0. The swaps market ignored the data and still implies 50bps of BOJ rate hikes to 1.00% over the next two years."

14:02 Gold retreats as US Dollar rebounds, outlook remains firm on US debt concerns
Gold price (XAU/USD) gives up its intraday gains and falls back to near $3,300 during European trading hours on Thursday after revisiting the two-week high around $3,345 earlier in the day.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price surrenders intraday gains and falls to around $3,300 as the US Dollar finds temporary support.Mounting US fiscal deficit concerns keep the outlook for the Gold price upbeat.US President Trump stated that Russia is unlikely to end the war in Ukraine.Gold price (XAU/USD) gives up its intraday gains and falls back to near $3,300 during European trading hours on Thursday after revisiting the two-week high around $3,345 earlier in the day. The precious metal retreats as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground after posting a fresh two-week low on Wednesday.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% higher at nearly 99.85 after recovering from its recent low of 99.35.Technically, a higher US Dollar makes the Gold price an expensive bet for investors.However, the outlook of the precious metal remains firm as escalating concerns over already-stretched United States (US) debt have strengthened the demand for safe-haven assets, keeping the US Dollar (USD) and demand for Treasury bonds on the back foot.Additionally, fading hopes of a positive outcome from truce talks between Russia and Ukraine also support the Gold price. Geopolitical tensions increase the demand for safe-haven assets, such as Gold.Daily digest market movers: Gold price remains largely firm on US fiscal crisis, Russia-Ukraine tensionsThe strong performance by the Gold price in the past few trading days was driven by increasing concerns over the US debt. On Wednesday, US Republicans controlled House Rules Committee approved President Donald Trump’s tax-cut bill and advanced it for a full House vote to be held on Thursday. The legislation is expected to increase the national debt by $3.8 trillion over a decade, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.Market experts have warned that the clearance of Trump’s new bill will widen the US fiscal deficit crisis and increase interest obligations for the administration at a time when the nation is battling potential economic risks prompted by Trump’s tariff policy. US debt concerns increased after Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa on Friday. The firm stripped off the US top credit rating for successive administrations and Congress failing to agree on measures to “reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs”. Domestically, growing fears of stagflation are also expected to keep the Gold demand intact. On Wednesday, JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon argued in favor of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) stance to maintain interest rates at their current levels due to potential stagflation risks from geopolitics, deficits, and price pressures, Bloomberg reported. “The Fed is doing the right thing to wait and see before it decides on monetary policy,” Dimon said. "I don’t agree that we’re in a sweet spot," he added.Theoretically, the demand for precious metals increases in a high-inflation environment, but the Fed’s stance to keep borrowing rates at their current levels for longer bodes poorly for non-yielding assets such as Gold.Meanwhile, investors await the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for May, which will be published at 13:45 GMT.On the geopolitical front, hopes of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine have diminished as US President Trump stated in a private conference call with European leaders that Russian leader Vladimir Putin would not agree to a truce because he thinks he is winning the war, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported. There is a notable shift in US President Trump’s stance on war in Ukraine as earlier this week he stated in a post on Truth.Social that both nations have agreed to immediate truce talks in the Vatican City. However, Trump didn’t provide any time frame for such negotiations. Trump also expressed confidence that both countries will focus on ending the war. Technical Analysis: Gold price holds above key 20-day EMAGold price struggles to break above the upward-sloping trendline on a daily time frame around $3,335, which is plotted from the December 12 high of $2,726. However, the near-term trend of the precious metal is bullish as its price holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $3,268.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants.Looking up, the May 7 high at around $3,440 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the May 15 low at $3,120 is a key support zone. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

14:00 US House Passes Trump tax bill, sends it to Senate
United States (US) President Donald Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill passed the Republican-controlled House of Representatives on Thursday. The bill will now move to the Senate floor.

12:56 EUR/GBP rises after UK inflation surprise challenges BoE outlook – Danske Bank
EUR/GBP ended the day higher following UK inflation data for April surprising significantly to the topside, relative to both consensus and BoE estimate, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

EUR/GBP ended the day higher following UK inflation data for April surprising significantly to the topside, relative to both consensus and BoE estimate, Danske Bank's FX analysts report. More cuts in August and November"Headline came in at 3.5% y/y (cons: 3.3%, prior: 2.6%, BoE: 3.4%) and services at 5.4% y/y (cons: 4.8% , prior: 4.7%, BoE: 5.0%). Akin to PMI data for April, this points to a more cautious cutting cycle from the BoE with more stagflationary tendencies with still elevated price pressures, which we see as GBP negative." "Additionally, we note that the yearly indexation of a range of services took place in April such as for phone and internet bills. Effects from energy prices, a rise in water bills, a new car road tax and the timing of Easter all lifted the prints yesterday, which makes it trickier for the BoE to gauge underlying price pressures." "Markets scaled back on the pricing of cuts, pricing just short of 40bp worth of cuts by year-end. We expect two more cuts in August and November."

12:52 ECB's Holzmann: The Euro's importance as a global currency is set to increase
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Robert Holzmann said on Thursday, “the Euro's importance as a global currency is set to increase.”

12:49 Current upward bias to remain intact above the 55-day EMA – UOB Group
Improving upward momentum indicates EUR/USD could maintain its upward bias; it is premature to expect a retest of the 1.1573 high, UOB Group's FX analyst Quek Ser Leang reports.

Improving upward momentum indicates EUR/USD could maintain its upward bias; it is premature to expect a retest of the 1.1573 high, UOB Group's FX analyst Quek Ser Leang reports. EUR/USD is still trying to edge higher"Our previous Chart of the Day update from about two weeks ago, 09 May 2025, when EUR/USD was at 1.1225 states: “On the daily chart, EUR/USD fell slightly below the 1.1215/1.1225 support zone yesterday (baseline of Ichimoku cloud, last September’s high and a rising trendline), suggesting that 1.1573 could be an interim top. The breach of the key daily support zone could open the way for a deeper corrective pullback toward the 55-day EMA, currently at 1.1050. On the upside, 1.1400 is a strong near-term resistance level, ahead of 1.1573.” "Shortly after our update, EUR/USD fell and tested the 55-day EMA, reaching a low of 1.1064. Since the low, EUR/USD has been edging higher. The daily MACD is rising, indicating improving upward momentum, though it remains in negative territory for now. While the improving momentum suggests EUR/USD could maintain its current upward bias, it appears premature to expect a retest of 1.1573, let alone a sustained break above this level." "The current upward bias will remain intact as long as EUR/USD holds above the 55-day EMA. In the near-term, ahead of the 55-day EMA, there is a notable support level at 1.1200. On the upside, should there be a decisive break above 1.1435, then the likelihood of EUR/USD retesting of 1.1573 will increase."

12:40 When consensus on the 'safe haven' characteristic breaks down – Commerzbank
In times of increasing 'geostrategic uncertainty', the US Dollar has recently been tending to weaken rather than strengthen. The more this price behavior of the US currency becomes apparent, the more it could intensify, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes.

In times of increasing 'geostrategic uncertainty', the US Dollar has recently been tending to weaken rather than strengthen. The more this price behavior of the US currency becomes apparent, the more it could intensify, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. USD may be losing its 'safe haven' status"'Safe haven' is a value in itself. A financial instrument (asset or currency) that has this characteristic promises performance precisely when performance is most needed. It is therefore particularly valuable. Not because of the expected amount, but because of the expected time profile of future returns. In reality, because return expectations are extremely uncertain, this is by far the more important dimension for evaluating a financial instrument.""To function as a 'safe haven,' a financial instrument needs certain fundamental characteristics. Most important, however, is that everyone must believe that everyone else sees it as a 'safe haven.' Only then can one expect the attractive time profile of returns to materialize in the future. This means that there is a risk of a self-reinforcing process. If market participants lose faith that the consensus on the dollar's safe haven status will continue, then this consensus will indeed collapse. And then we will see accelerating USD weakness.""It is not so unlikely that it can be ignored. Especially since yesterday was another day on which both US government bond yields rose and the dollar weakened. This means that the rise in yields was not a reflection of a flight to quality, but rather a consequence of investors demanding a higher risk premium to hold US government bonds. The other 'safe haven' financial instrument – the US T-note – has also been tarnished. No wonder, given the fiscal high-wire act that the US government is currently trying to push through Congress. The picture is therefore complete.”

12:35 G7 FX talks fuel USD bearishness – Danske Bank
EUR/USD edged higher above 1.13 as the USD continues to soften in an otherwise relatively quiet week for G10 FX, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

EUR/USD edged higher above 1.13 as the USD continues to soften in an otherwise relatively quiet week for G10 FX, Danske Bank's FX analysts report. Fed holds steady, markets expect September cut "Reports of FX discussions at the G7 meeting in Canada have further reinforced the market's underlying bias toward adding to USD shorts, amid ongoing speculation that the US administration is actively pursuing a weaker greenback.""Recent Fed commentary remains fairly balanced, with most members indicating the Fed is in a 'good place,' and Powell's wait-and-see stance appears to have been broadly accepted by markets. Based on current pricing, a rate cut within the next two meetings seems unlikely barring any significant surprises." "We see limited FX impact from incremental policy repricing at this stage, with price action more likely to be driven by headlines related to tariffs and FX policy, Treasury market dynamics, and incoming hard US data — with the next key releases due in early June. Tactically, we continue to favour buying EUR/USD on dips."

12:33 Silver price today: Silver broadly unchanged, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

12:21 USD: Trading US deficit fears – ING
Yesterday, we suggested that the G7 finance ministers’ meeting in Canada could produce USD-supportive headlines, particularly if there were signs of easing trade tensions.

Yesterday, we suggested that the G7 finance ministers’ meeting in Canada could produce USD-supportive headlines, particularly if there were signs of easing trade tensions. So far, the summit has been quiet, but with meetings concluding today, we could still see market-moving headlines, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Markets may favour selling into DXY strength above 100.0 "Instead, market attention has largely shifted to developments surrounding the US tax bill. House leaders are pushing for a vote before the Memorial Day recess and have introduced a revised version that raises the threshold for tax deductions– an expansionary measure aimed to win over moderate Republicans – as well as faster Medicaid cuts backed by more conservative party members. Market concerns over the deficit impact of the bill have intensified this week, and triggered another coordinated selloff in US equities and bonds yesterday. The dollar is falling across the board as a consequence. A softish 20-year auction yesterday added further pressure on Treasuries, with the widening 10Y UST-SOFR spread to -58 indicating fresh market stress.""US equity futures and Treasuries are stabilising this morning, but the risks of another rough session for US markets remain tangible. Any relief from deficit-related concerns could be further reinforced by positive headlines on trade emerging from the G7 finance meetings in Canada. The post-'Liberation Day' episode underscored how quickly the dollar can fall amid renewed confidence issues surrounding US assets, and downside risks for the greenback remain elevated. At the same time, it highlighted that pressure in Treasuries—more so than in equities—has the potential to prompt policy reassessment in Washington.""Early signs of a somewhat steadier market after the latest US tax bill developments suggest we could see the dollar find some tentative support or even rebound today. Still, markets may well favour selling into DXY strength above the 100.0 level."

12:16 The wonderfully normal Bank of England – Commerzbank
Inflation rose sharply in the United Kingdom in April – more than analysts had expected. This was reported yesterday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The surprisingly high increase was broad-based.

Inflation rose sharply in the United Kingdom in April – more than analysts had expected. This was reported yesterday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The surprisingly high increase was broad-based. This is exactly what is meant by 'inflation,' and it is the task of the monetary authorities to control it. As a result, the pound rose, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. BoE might actively respond to unexpected inflationary developments"This mechanism works so well in the UK because everyone is convinced that the Bank of England (BoE) will actively respond to unexpected inflationary developments. Recent events, but also the communication of the 'old lady of Threadneedle Street,' have strengthened confidence in the BoE's responsiveness. Since the eve of the last BoE meeting, market expectations regarding the future BoE interest rate path have shifted significantly upward. Yesterday's inflation data justify this market view and the strength of the GBP that we have seen recently.""This is where the advantage of a monetary policy that has earned trust in its responsiveness through reliable work comes into play: because a strong pound (the third strongest G10 currency since that BoE meeting, surpassed only by the Scandinavian currencies!) dampens domestic inflation, the foreign exchange market is doing part of the BoE's job. So to speak. And so it is justified that a little bit of interest rate cut expectations are still priced in.""Of course, yesterday's market reaction also showed that the effect of the revision of interest rate expectations is slowly wearing off. Cable did gain ground yesterday, but this was more a USD story than GBP-driven. The strong inflation figures did not help against the euro or the G10 average. For me, this means that for the pound to continue to gain ground across the board in the coming days and weeks, something new will have to happen."

12:11 GBP/USD falls to near 1.3400 following mixed UK PMI data
GBP/USD is depreciating after the mixed S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data was released on Thursday. The pair has maintained its position near 1.3468, the highest since February 2022, reached on Wednesday, and is trading around 1.3410 during the European hours.

11:58 Spain 3-y Bond Auction rose from previous 2.086% to 2.251%
Spain 3-y Bond Auction rose from previous 2.086% to 2.251%

11:57 GBP: EUR/GBP drop delayed – ING
April’s rise in UK services inflation was mostly down to a temporary spike in air fares and package holidays caused by the timing of Easter—an effect that should unwind soon, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

April’s rise in UK services inflation was mostly down to a temporary spike in air fares and package holidays caused by the timing of Easter—an effect that should unwind soon, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. EUR/GBP can below 0.840 in the near term"Other key areas like restaurants, medical care, and rents are showing signs of disinflation. While rent is still propping up the overall figure, its impact is set to shrink next year. Our view is that services inflation will fall further this summer, and while levels remain high for the Bank of England, an August rate cut still looks on the cards.""Markets have scaled back easing bets only modestly, and an August move is still just about 50% priced in. As a consequence, there hasn’t been much support for the pound coming from the CPI release, and EUR/GBP is likely finding support from market instability borrowed from the US." "We still like the chances of EUR/GBP below 0.840, although calmer asset markets are likely a necessary condition."

11:53 New Zealand: Fiscally adrift – Standard Chartered
Government maintained its goal of returning to a surplus by FY29; but deficit path has widened materially. Growth forecasts were downgraded across the forecast horizon. Near-term issuance trimmed, but total borrowing over the forecast horizon revised up by NZD 4bn.

Government maintained its goal of returning to a surplus by FY29; but deficit path has widened materially. Growth forecasts were downgraded across the forecast horizon. Near-term issuance trimmed, but total borrowing over the forecast horizon revised up by NZD 4bn. The budget does little to shift the near-term monetary policy outlook, Standard Chartered's economists Bader Al Sarraf and Nicholas Chia report. Margins getting tighter"New Zealand’s Budget 2025 struck a tone of near-term restraint, cutting the operating allowance to NZD 1.3bn – the lowest in over a decade – while keeping capital spending steady at NZD 4bn. Despite this, a weaker growth backdrop and new tax incentives have widened the projected fiscal deficits over the next four years. The government maintained its target of returning to a surplus by FY29 (ending June 2029), although a deficit of NZD 12.1bn (2.6% of GDP) is still forecast for FY26 – around NZD 1.6bn wider than projected in the December 2024 Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU). We see the risk of further slippage beyond this forecast if growth underperforms or spending pressures re-emerge.""While bond issuance for FY25 and FY26 was trimmed by NZD 4bn, this was offset by increases in later years – including a NZD 6bn uplift in FY29. Overall, gross issuance over the four-year forecast is up NZD 4bn to NZD 175bn (42% of GDP). Despite near-term relief, the funding task remains sizeable as maturities from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ’s) Large-Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) programme roll off and debt servicing costs rise.""On monetary policy, we believe Budget 2025 is unlikely to alter the RBNZ’s near-term path. For the RBNZ, we think the message is clear: while fiscal policy supports disinflation, monetary policy will remain the primary anchor, particularly as global risks and medium-term pressures persist."

11:48 EUR/USD briefly dips as Eurozone PMIs unexpectedly decline
EUR/USD faces selling pressure and falls to near 1.1310 during European trading hours on Thursday. The major currency pair drops as the Euro (EUR) underperforms after the release of the surprisingly weak preliminary Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for May.

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The major currency pair drops as the Euro (EUR) underperforms after the release of the surprisingly weak preliminary Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for May. The report showed that the Composite PMI fell to 49.5 from 50.4 in April, suggesting that the overall business activity declined. A figure below the 50.0 threshold is seen as a contraction in business activities.According to the PMI report, activities in the services sector contracted unexpectedly for the first time since November 2024, while the Manufacturing PMI contracted at a slower-than-expected pace. Signs of business activity contraction are unfavorable for the Euro. Additionally, uncertainty over the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks in Vatican City has also weighed on the Euro. On Wednesday, United States (US) President Donald Trump ruled out hopes of a ceasefire after stating in a private conference call with European leaders that Russian leader Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war because he thinks he is winning, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported. Diminishing hopes of a truce between Russia and Ukraine could keep the Euro on the backfoot.There is a notable shift in US President Trump’s stance on war in Ukraine from what he stated in a post on Truth.Social earlier this week, that both nations have agreed to immediate truce talks, and expressed confidence that both countries will focus on ending the war in Ukraine. However, Trump didn’t provide a timeframe for truce talks.Another reason behind the pressure on the Euro is the firm expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates again in the June policy meeting. ECB officials have signaled the need for further monetary policy expansion to offset downside risks to Eurozone inflation. "In order to be able to keep inflation at the target of 2%, [the ECB] may have to come below the natural rate in the range of 1.5% to 2%, ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Bank of Portugal Mario Centeno said on Wednesday.On the global front, Bundesbank’s President Joachim Nagel has expressed confidence over progress in trade talks with the US, stating that Washington and Brussels have acknowledged that trade conflicts have no winners, on German Television at the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Canada, Reuters reported. "I also believe that the US side now understands some things better, and I am a little more confident than I perhaps was a few days ago,” Nagel said.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD drops as Euro underperformsEUR/USD trades slightly lower on Thursday as the Euro (EUR) underperforms its peers after the release of weaker-than-expected PMI data for the Eurozone. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) is also down, as fears of a widening fiscal crisis have raised concerns about the already high national debt. On Wednesday, the House Rules Committee, controlled by Republicans, approved President Donald Trump’s new tax bill and advanced it for a full House vote. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, Trump’s tax-cut bill would increase the US debt by $3.8 trillion over the decade, which is currently $36.2 trillion. On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the US Sovereign Credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa, citing concerns over large debt, which led to a sharp increase in borrowing costs for the administration.On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials keep arguing in favor of holding interest rates at their current level amid unusually elevated uncertainty over the US economic outlook due to President Trump's imposition of new economic policies.On Wednesday, JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon supported the Fed’s decision to maintain a restrictive interest rate guidance, warning of stagflation risks from geopolitics, deficits, and price pressures, Bloomberg reported. “The Fed is doing the right thing to wait and see before it decides on monetary policy,” Dimon said and added, "I don’t agree that we’re in a sweet spot."Meanwhile, investors await the preliminary US S&P Global PMI data for May, which will be published at 13:45 GMT. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD wobbles around 1.1320EUR/USD oscillates inside Wednesday’s trading range around 1.1320 on Thursday. The near-term outlook of the pair is bullish as it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.1240.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among traders.Looking up, the April 28 high of 1.1425 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:48 ECB’s Vujčić: Eurozone growth positive but low
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Boris Vujčić said on Thursday that the “Eurozone growth positive but low.”

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Boris Vujčić said on Thursday that the “Eurozone growth positive but low.”Additional quotesI expect to get close to 2% target at the end of 2025.

I expect to reach the target in early 2026.Market reactionThese comments have little to no impact on the Euro, as EUR/USD remains 0.19% lower on the day near 1.1310, as of writing.

11:45 EUR: Another leg higher in EUR/USD may be inevitable – ING
European currencies continue to gain ground, supported by a rotation out of US assets, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

European currencies continue to gain ground, supported by a rotation out of US assets, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. A move to 1.150 in EUR/USD seems to be premature"Markets might also be partly factoring in last week’s unexpected Reuters report that the European Central Bank has asked banks to stress test their USD funding needs amid concerns the Federal Reserve could restrict access to emergency USD swap lines. While this scenario appears somewhat unlikely, should the risk be deemed credible, it could prompt even faster diversification away from the dollar.""We generally deem c given the lack of hard evidence on the economic damage in the US from tariffs. To be sure, if the G7 summit fails to offer signs of trade de-escalation, and above all, Treasury markets remain under pressure, another leg higher in EUR/USD would be inevitable."

11:45 EUR/JPY declines below 162.00, Eurozone PMI declines unexpectedly
The EUR/JPY pair trades 0.5% lower near 162.00 during European trading hours on Thursday. Investors brace for more weakness in the pair as preliminary Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data has surprisingly declined in May.

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Investors brace for more weakness in the pair as preliminary Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data has surprisingly declined in May.The report showed that the Composite PMI declined to 49.4. A figure below the 50.0 threshold is considered a contraction in the business activity. Economists expected the Composite PMI to come in higher at 50.7 from 50.4 in April. The notable decline in the Composite PMI came from contraction in activities in the services sector. The Services PMI surprisingly declined to 48.9.According to the PMI report, the overall business activity in the Eurozone economy declined as Germany joined France in contraction territory.Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms across the board as mounting concerns over the United States' (US) fiscal imbalances have increased its safe-haven demand. Domestically, firm expectations of more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have also kept the Yen on the frontfoot. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.16% 0.04% -0.26% 0.04% -0.14% 0.22% 0.08% EUR -0.16% -0.12% -0.42% -0.12% -0.30% 0.06% -0.07% GBP -0.04% 0.12% -0.31% 0.00% -0.17% 0.17% 0.04% JPY 0.26% 0.42% 0.31% 0.29% 0.13% 0.46% 0.32% CAD -0.04% 0.12% -0.00% -0.29% -0.17% 0.17% 0.04% AUD 0.14% 0.30% 0.17% -0.13% 0.17% 0.36% 0.21% NZD -0.22% -0.06% -0.17% -0.46% -0.17% -0.36% -0.14% CHF -0.08% 0.07% -0.04% -0.32% -0.04% -0.21% 0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). Earlier this week, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida expressed confidence that inflation in Japan will likely re-accelerate after a period of slowdown, a scenario that will keep hopes of interest rate hikes alive.On the global front, investors await trade talks between Tokyo and Washington, which are scheduled over the weekend. Japan’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is scheduled to visit Washington for trade discussions. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:43 RBA’s Hauser: Australian exporters are upbeat about resilience of China demand
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on Thursday, “Australian exporters are upbeat about resilience of China demand.”

11:32 UK Preliminary Services PMI rebounds to 50.2 in May vs. 50 expected
The seasonally adjusted S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to 45.1 in May from 45.4 in April. The data missed the market forecast of 46 in the reported period.

UK Services PMI recovered to 50.2 in May, beating expectations.Manufacturing PMI in the UK dropped to 45.1 in May.GBP/USD holds minor gains above 1.3400 after UK business PMIs.The seasonally adjusted S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to 45.1 in May from 45.4 in April. The data missed the market forecast of 46 in the reported period.Meanwhile, the Preliminary UK Services Business Activity Index jumped to 50.2 in May versus April’s 49 while bettering the expected 50 figure.FX implicationsMixed UK PMIs fail to inspire the Pound Sterling, as GBP/USD adds 0.04% on the day at 1.3425, as of writing.

11:32 AUD/JPY falls below 92.50, further downside appears due to rising odds of BoJ rate hikes
AUD/JPY hits a fresh two-week low, with trading around 92.30 during the European hours on Thursday.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (46) in May: Actual (45.1)
United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (46) in May: Actual (45.1)

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 49.4, above forecasts (49.3) in May
United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 49.4, above forecasts (49.3) in May

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (50) in May: Actual (50.2)
United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (50) in May: Actual (50.2)

11:04 German IFO Business Climate Index climbs to 87.5 in May vs. 87.4 expected
The headline German IFO Business Climate Index rose to 87.5 in May from 86.9 in April. The data came in slightly above the market forecast of 87.4.

11:02 Germany IFO – Expectations above forecasts (88) in May: Actual (88.9)
Germany IFO – Expectations above forecasts (88) in May: Actual (88.9)

11:01 Eurozone Preliminary Manufacturing PMI rises to 49.4 in May vs. 49.3 expected
The Eurozone manufacturing sector remained in contraction, while services sector also followed suit in May, according to data from the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, published on Thursday.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 in May, beating the 49.3 forecast.Bloc’s Services PMI dropped to 48.9 in May vs. 50.3 estimate.EUR/USD holds losses above 1.1300 after German, Eurozone PMI data. The Eurozone manufacturing sector remained in contraction, while services sector also followed suit in May, according to data from the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, published on Thursday.
developing story ...

11:00 Germany IFO – Business Climate above expectations (87.4) in May: Actual (87.5)
Germany IFO – Business Climate above expectations (87.4) in May: Actual (87.5)

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (50.3) in May: Actual (48.9)
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (50.3) in May: Actual (48.9)

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (49.3) in May: Actual (48.4)
Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (49.3) in May: Actual (48.4)

11:00 S&P Global PMIs expected to show modest US economic slowdown in May
S&P Global will release the preliminary May Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the United States at 13:45 GMT on Thursday.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The S&P Global advanced April PMIs are expected to show a slight dip in the manufacturing sector.Markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September by 25 bps.EUR/USD keeps the trade in the area of three-year highs past 1.1500.S&P Global will release the preliminary May Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the United States at 13:45 GMT on Thursday.The report comprises three measures — the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI and the Composite PMI (a weighted blend of the two) — each calibrated so that readings above 50 denote expansion and those below 50 signal contraction. Published well ahead of many official statistics, these monthly snapshots assess everything from output and export trends to capacity utilization, employment and inventory levels, and are largely seen as reliable leading economic indicators.In April, the Composite PMI edged lower to 50.6 from 51.2 in March, pointing to a loss of growth momentum in the private sector’s economic activity. In this period, the Services PMI declined to 50.8 from 51.4, while the Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 from 50.7. Assessing the survey’s findings, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that PMI data for April highlighted a marked slowing of business activity growth at the start of the second quarter, accompanied by a slump in optimism about the outlook. “At the same time, price pressures intensified, creating a headache for a central bank which is coming under increasing pressure to shore up a weakening economy just as inflation looks set to rise,” Williamson added. What can we expect from the next S&P Global PMI report?Market expectations suggest that PMI readings in May will change a little. The Services PMI is forecast to hold steady at 50.8 and Manufacturing PMI is seen ticking down to 50.1 from 50.2. Previewing the PMI data, analysts at TD Securities said: “The flash PMIs for May might reflect some optimism in their responses following the recent trade-war détente between the US and China.”“Note that the survey is conducted during the two middle weeks of the month. With that said, while we are projecting an increase in the services index to 52.0, we look for a decline in the Manufacturing PMI to contraction territory,” analysts added. Economic Indicator S&P Global Composite PMI The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging US private-business activity in the manufacturing and services sector. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD. Read more. Next release: Thu May 22, 2025 13:45 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Consensus: - Previous: 50.6 Source: S&P Global When will the March flash US S&P Global PMIs be released, and how could they affect EUR/USD?The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs report will be released on Thursday at 13:45 GMT and is expected to show a marginal expansion in the US private sector’s business activity.In case both PMIs come in above 52, the immediate market reaction could boost the US Dollar (USD). Conversely, the USD could come under renewed selling pressure if PMIs drop below 50 in May.The underlying details of the PMI surveys could drive the USD’s valuation if headline readings arrive close to market estimates. In case the publication hints at a strengthening input inflation, investors could see that as a sign pointing to a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy hold in the upcoming meetings, or a hawkish revision to the interest rate projections in June’s revised Summary of Projections. In this scenario, the USD is likely to outperform its rivals in the near term. On the flip side, the USD could struggle to find demand and help EUR/USD push higher if the survey highlights a significant reduction in the private sector’s payrolls.Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shared a brief overview of EUR/USD’s short-term technical outlook:“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart climbs toward 60 after spending the previous week below 50, reflecting a buildup of bullish momentum. Additionally, EUR/USD closed above the 20-day Simple Moving Average for the first time in two weeks on Tuesday.”“On the upside, 1.1500 (static level, end-point of the January-April uptrend) aligns as a strong resistance level before 1.1575 (April 21 high) and 1.1670 (static level from October 2021). Looking south, supports could be spotted at 1.1200 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the uptrend), 1.1120 (50-day SMA) and 1.1015-1.1000 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, round level).” US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

10:55 US Dollar Index stays above 99.50 ahead of PMI data, voting on Trump tax cut bill
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, holds gains after registering losses in the previous three successive sessions.

10:31 German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI improves to 48.8 in May vs. 48.9 expected
The German manufacturing sector activity picked up and the services sector deepened its contraction in May, the preliminary business activity report published by the HCOB survey showed on Thursday.

10:30 Germany HCOB Services PMI below expectations (49.5) in May: Actual (47.2)
Germany HCOB Services PMI below expectations (49.5) in May: Actual (47.2)

10:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 48.8, below expectations (48.9) in May
Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 48.8, below expectations (48.9) in May

10:30 Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.6 below forecasts (50.4) in May
Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.6 below forecasts (50.4) in May

10:26 Forex Today: Attention turns to May PMI data from major economies
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 22:

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The US economic calendar will also feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and April Existing Home Sales data, and officials from major central banks will be delivering speeches later in the day. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.17% -1.02% -1.38% -0.79% -0.58% -0.72% -1.33% EUR 1.17% 0.13% -0.16% 0.45% 0.72% 0.52% -0.16% GBP 1.02% -0.13% -0.60% 0.32% 0.59% 0.39% -0.29% JPY 1.38% 0.16% 0.60% 0.61% 0.97% 0.88% 0.10% CAD 0.79% -0.45% -0.32% -0.61% 0.23% 0.07% -0.61% AUD 0.58% -0.72% -0.59% -0.97% -0.23% -0.20% -0.86% NZD 0.72% -0.52% -0.39% -0.88% -0.07% 0.20% -0.68% CHF 1.33% 0.16% 0.29% -0.10% 0.61% 0.86% 0.68% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). During the Asian trading hours on Thursday, the House Rules Committee approved US President Donald Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill. A full house floor vote on the bill is expected following a debate later in the day. Meanwhile, US Treasury bond yields shot higher late Wednesday after the weak demand seen in the 20-year note auction. The benchmark 10-year US yield rose more than 2.5% on Wednesday and reached its highest level since February above 4.6%. After closing in the negative territory for three consecutive days, the US Dollar Index fluctuates in a tight channel above 99.50.EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase above 1.1300 in the European morning on Thursday. Later in the session, the European Central Bank will release Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. GBP/USD climbed to its highest level in more than three years at 1.3470 on Wednesday but erased a portion of its daily gains in the American trading hours. The pair fluctuates in a narrow band slightly above 1.3400 to start the European session.Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, said early Thursday that they did not discuss foreign exchange levels at the finance ministers' meeting. USD/JPY remains in a downtrend and trades in negative territory below 143.50.Gold gathered bullish momentum and rose above $3,300 on Wednesday. XAU/USD holds its ground and trades near $3,330 in the European morning. The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told European leaders earlier in the week that that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war because he thinks he is winning. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

10:15 France HCOB Composite PMI meets forecasts (48) in May
France HCOB Composite PMI meets forecasts (48) in May

10:15 France HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (47.5) in May: Actual (47.4)
France HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (47.5) in May: Actual (47.4)

10:15 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (48.9) in May: Actual (49.5)
France HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (48.9) in May: Actual (49.5)

10:07 USD/CHF extends downside to near 0.8250, US PMI data in focus
The USD/CHF pair extends the decline to around 0.8250 during the early European session on Thursday. The Greenback weakens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) due to US fiscal concerns. Traders will take more cues from the advanced US S&P Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May.

09:45 France Business Climate in Manufacturing registered at 97, below expectations (99) in May
France Business Climate in Manufacturing registered at 97, below expectations (99) in May

09:17 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.60 per barrel, up from Wednesday’s close at $61.23.

09:00 United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing registered at £20.155B above expectations (£17.9B) in April
United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing registered at £20.155B above expectations (£17.9B) in April

08:52 BoJ’s Noguchi: Recent rise in long-term rates likely won't have impact on our new bond taper plan
Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the “recent rise in long-term rates likely won't have an impact on our new bond taper plan to be decided in June.”

08:43 FX option expiries for May 22 NY cut
FX option expiries for May 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for May 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1175 2.1b1.1315 1b1.1400 751mGBP/USD: GBP amounts1.3260 778m1.3395 456mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 143.50 601mUSD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8525 598mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6100 204m0.6700 286mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3700 659m1.4050 1.4b

08:40 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Keeps bullish vibe, first upside target emerges above 163.00
The EUR/JPY cross attracts some sellers to around 162.35 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Euro (EUR) amid the growing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again this year.

08:39 EUR/GBP remains below 0.8450, moves little ahead of PMI data from both economies
EUR/GBP posts little losses after registering gains in the previous three consecutive days. The currency cross trades lower at around 0.8440 during Thursday’s Asian hours.

08:26 USD/CAD trades with negative bias around mid-1.3800s, just above two-week low
The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.3815-1.3810 region, or a two-week low, and trades with a negative bias for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday.

07:50 NZD/USD keeps the red above 0.5900 after NZ budget, downside seems cushioned
The NZD/USD pair extends the previous day's late pullback from the 0.5965-0.5670 area, or a one-week high, and attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Thursday.

07:49 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD posts monthly highs above $32.50 due to safe-haven demand
Silver price (XAG/USD) rises to near $32.60 per troy ounce during the Asian trading hours on Thursday, gaining ground for the third successive session. Precious metals, including Silver, attract buyers amid rising safe-haven demand over growing fiscal concerns in the United States (US).

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 9,187.63 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 9,130.41 it cost on Wednesday. The price for Gold increased to INR 107,165.40 per tola from INR 106,495.30 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,187.63 10 Grams 91,874.77 Tola 107,165.40 Troy Ounce 285,766.50 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price buying remains unabated amid safe-haven demand, weaker USD The Republican-controlled US House of Representatives Rules Committee voted to advance President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-cut and spending bill, setting the stage for a vote on the House floor. The highly anticipated “One Big, Beautiful Bill” could add around $3 trillion to $5 trillion to the country’s already hefty debt pile. Furthermore, a crucial auction of 20-year Treasury bonds on Wednesday saw soft demand, pointing to growing worries that the tax and spending bill will worsen the US budget deficit at a faster pace than previously expected. This comes after Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from the top "Aaa" last Friday. The US Dollar has been trending lower on the back of US fiscal concerns. Adding to this, bets that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates further this year amid evidence of easing inflation and a dismal growth forecast continue to push the USD lower, lifting the non-yielding Gold price to a nearly two-week high on Thursday. Meanwhile, China accused the US of abusing export control measures and violating Geneva trade agreements after the US issued guidance warning companies not to use Huawei's Ascend AI chips. China’s Commerce Ministry said on Wednesday that US measures on advanced chips are ‘typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism.’ On the geopolitical front, Israel’s military continued to pound the Gaza Strip and block desperately needed food aid. Adding to this, Trump reportedly told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war with Ukraine as he thinks he is winning, which lends additional support to the safe-haven commodity. Traders now look to the release of flash PMI prints for a fresh insight into the global economic health. The US economic docket also features the release of the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales, which might influence the USD. This, along with the broader risk sentiment, could drive the precious metal. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:16 Gold price hits two-week high as USD declines on deteriorating US fiscal outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) prolongs the uptrend for the fourth consecutive day and climbs to a nearly two-week high, around the $3,344-3,345 area during the Asian session on Thursday.

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Gold price (XAU/USD) prolongs the uptrend for the fourth consecutive day and climbs to a nearly two-week high, around the $3,344-3,345 area during the Asian session on Thursday. Investors remain on edge following the US sovereign credit rating downgrade by Moody’s and growing worries about rising US deficit on the back of US President Donald Trump's sweeping tax bill. Moreover, renewed US-China trade tensions, along with geopolitical risks, hit the global risk sentiment and continue to benefit the safe-haven precious metal.Meanwhile, a poor response to the 20-year US bond auction reinforced the view that market participants are shying away from US assets. Apart from this, the growing market acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs further in 2025 amid easing inflationary pressures and a sluggish economic growth outlook contributes to the prevalent US Dollar (USD) selling bias. This turns out to be another factor driving flows towards the non-yielding Gold price and supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price buying remains unabated amid safe-haven demand, weaker USDThe Republican-controlled US House of Representatives Rules Committee voted to advance President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-cut and spending bill, setting the stage for a vote on the House floor. The highly anticipated “One Big, Beautiful Bill” could add around $3 trillion to $5 trillion to the country’s already hefty debt pile.Furthermore, a crucial auction of 20-year Treasury bonds on Wednesday saw soft demand, pointing to growing worries that the tax and spending bill will worsen the US budget deficit at a faster pace than previously expected. This comes after Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from the top "Aaa" last Friday.The US Dollar has been trending lower on the back of US fiscal concerns. Adding to this, bets that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates further this year amid evidence of easing inflation and a dismal growth forecast continue to push the USD lower, lifting the non-yielding Gold price to a nearly two-week high on Thursday.Meanwhile, China accused the US of abusing export control measures and violating Geneva trade agreements after the US issued guidance warning companies not to use Huawei's Ascend AI chips. China’s Commerce Ministry said on Wednesday that US measures on advanced chips are ‘typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism.’ On the geopolitical front, Israel’s military continued to pound the Gaza Strip and block desperately needed food aid. Adding to this, Trump reportedly told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war with Ukraine as he thinks he is winning, which lends additional support to the safe-haven commodity. Traders now look to the release of flash PMI prints for a fresh insight into the global economic health. The US economic docket also features the release of the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales, which might influence the USD. This, along with the broader risk sentiment, could drive the precious metal. Gold price seems poised to reclaim the $3,400 markFrom a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair now seems to have found acceptance above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downfall from the monthly peak. This comes on the back of this week's breakout through the $3,250-3,255 resistance zone and favors bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. Hence, a subsequent move towards the next relevant hurdle near the $3,363-3,365 region, en route to the $3,400 round figure, looks like a distinct possibility.On the flip side, the $3,316-3,315 area, or the 61.8% Fibo. retracement level resistance breakpoint now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $3,300 mark. Any further decline below the $3,285 area is more likely to attract fresh buyers and remain limited near the $3,255-3,250 hurdle-turned-support. A convincing break below the latter, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the $3,200 mark. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

06:58 Japan’s Top FX Diplomat Mimura: US did not discuss FX levels at finance ministers' meeting
Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, said early Thursday “ the US did not discuss FX levels at finance ministers' meeting.”

Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, said early Thursday “ the US did not discuss FX levels at finance ministers' meeting.”Additional commentsReaffirmed that forex should be determined by the market.Do not believe that there is any gap in understanding with the US.Finance Minister Kato agreed with Bessent that FX rates should be set by markets.Market reaction

06:47 EUR/USD hovers near 1.1350, two-week highs ahead of HCOB PMI for Eurozone
EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1340, close to two-week highs during the Asian trading hours. The Euro (EUR) continues its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session ahead of the HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the Eurozone, scheduled to be released later in the day.

06:26 USD/INR softens ahead of Indian/US PMI releases
The Indian Rupee (INR) gathers strength on Thursday. The strength in Asian peers, a weaker US Dollar (USD) and lower crude oil prices provide some support to the Indian currency. Furthermore, a multi-phase trade deal between the US and India might contribute to the INR’s upside.

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The preliminary Indian HSBC PMI and US S&P PMI reports for May will be the spotlights later on Thursday. The Indian Rupee (INR) gathers strength on Thursday. The strength in Asian peers, a weaker US Dollar (USD) and lower crude oil prices provide some support to the Indian currency. Furthermore, a multi-phase trade deal between the US and India might contribute to the INR’s upside. Nonetheless, the rising expectation that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will deliver a rate cut in its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting might undermine the local currency. Investors will closely watch the preliminary reading of India’s HSBC Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May, which is due later on Thursday. On the US docket, the advanced S&P PMI for May, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales reports will be published. Indian Rupee strengthens as a softer US Dollar caps declineIndia’s Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said that India and the US may finalise the first phase of the India-US trade deal before July.The RBI monthly bulletin released in May stated that the global growth outlook remains fragile despite the US having paused tariffs. The RBI added that heightened policy uncertainty and weak consumer sentiment weighed on the outlook.Moody's Ratings said on Wednesday that India is well-positioned to deal with the negative effects of US tariffs and global trade disruptions, as domestic growth drivers and low dependence on exports anchor the economy.House Speaker Mike Johnson said that Trump met with House Republicans on Tuesday and failed to convince his party's holdouts to back his sweeping tax bill. Republican hardliners continue to argue the bill does not sufficiently cut spending.Several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials indicated in speeches this week that the US central bank is unlikely to lower its key fed funds rate at its two meetings this summer. Markets have priced in nearly a 71% chance that the Fed would keep its interest rates steady through its next two meetings, according to the CME FedWatch tool.USD/INR’s bearish outlook remains in play under the 100-day EMAThe Indian Rupee strengthens on the day. The USD/INR pair maintains a bearish tone on the daily timeframe, with the price remaining capped below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline. This indicates the neutral momentum in the near term, suggesting that further consolidation or temporary recovery cannot be ruled out. The low of May 19 at 85.34 acts as an initial support level for USD/INR. Any follow-through selling below this level could see a drop to the 85.00 psychological level, followed by 84.61, the low of May 12. On the other hand, the crucial resistance level to watch is the 100-day EMA at 85.60. A decisive break above the mentioned level could potentially lift the pair back up to 85.85, the upper boundary of the trend channel. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:59 GBP/USD rises to near 1.3450 ahead of UK PMI data
GBP/USD trades higher for the fourth successive day with trading around 1.3430 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

05:40 Japanese Yen advances to fresh two-week highs against a weaker USD
The Japanese Yen (JPY) regained positive traction following an early Asian session slide in reaction to Japan's upbeat Machinery Orders data, which countered recession fears and boosted hopes for an economic recovery.

05:27 Trump told EU heads in private Putin isn’t ready to end war – WSJ
Citing three people familiar with the conversation, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported late Tuesday that “On a call Monday, President Trump told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war because he thinks he is winning.”

Citing three people familiar with the conversation, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported late Tuesday that “On a call Monday, President Trump told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war because he thinks he is winning.”Additional pointsTrump shifted from suggesting sanctions to proposing lower-level talks at the Vatican between Russia and Ukraine.Europeans sought to clarify Putin’s stance for Trump, underscoring their need to support Ukraine.

05:19 New Zealand boosts bond program by NZ$4 billion over four years
New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis presents the nation’s Budget on Thursday, with the key highlights noted below.

New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis presents the nation’s Budget on Thursday, with the key highlights noted below.NZ sees 2024/25 operating surplus before gains, losses NZ$-14.74 bln (HYEFU NZ$-17.32bln).NZ sees 2025/26 OBEGAL surplus/deficit NZ$-15.60 bln (HYEFU NZ$-14.10bln).NZ sees 2024/25 net debt 42.7% of GDP (HYEFU 45.1%).NZ 2024/25 cash balance NZ$-9.99 bln (HYEFU NZ$-16.61bln).NZ sees 2024/25 GDP -0.8% (HYEFU +0.5%).Govt does not forecast OBEGAL surplus in next five fiscal years.Trade tariffs to impact pace of economic recovery.NZ inflation forecast to remain within target band of 1% to 3% over next five years.NZ GDP forecast growing 2.9% in 2025/26, 3.0% in 2026/27.

04:55 WTI slumps to near $61.00, traders await fresh round of nuclear talks between US and Iran
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $61.10 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price edges lower on the report that a fresh round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran would take place later this week.

04:51 BoJ’s Noguchi: Japan’s economy is growing steadily
Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the Japanese economy is growing steadily. Noguchi further stated that the central bank is likely to keep adjusting the policy rate, while carefully assessing whether underlying inflation would be stabilising around 2%.

04:49 Australian Dollar holds ground following release of S&P PMI data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending its gains for the second successive day. The AUD/USD pair maintains its position following the release of the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar remains stronger as the US Dollar weakens on Thursday.Australia’s Manufacturing PMI remains steady at 51.7 in May, meanwhile, Services PMI declines to 50.5.Fed officials noted that a decline in consumer and corporate confidence is attributed to US trade policy change.The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending its gains for the second successive day. The AUD/USD pair maintains its position following the release of the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data.Australia's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index came in at 51.7 in May versus 51.7 prior. Meanwhile, Services PMI declines to 50.5 in May from the previous reading of 51.0, while the Composite PMI eases to 50.6 in May versus 51.0 prior.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reduced its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points on Tuesday. Moreover, RBA Governor Michele Bullock supported the central bank's rate cut decision. Bulock noted that curbing inflation is important and expressed that a rate cut was a proactive, confidence-boosting move that was suitable given the state of the economy. She also mentioned that the Board is prepared to take additional action if necessary, raising the prospect of future changes.Australian Dollar maintains position as US Dollar continues to weakenThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is losing ground for the fourth successive session and trading lower at around 99.50 at the time of writing.Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly both voiced rising concerns about the US economy during a panel event organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Despite the fact that important economic indicators are still strong, both officials noted a decline in consumer and corporate confidence and partially blamed the change in opinion on US trade policies.On Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expanded on remarks he made the previous day. Bostic warned that the inconsistent and shifting tariff policies introduced during the Trump administration risk disrupting US trade logistics, which are heavily dependent on large-scale imports to satisfy domestic demand.The US Dollar struggles after Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. This move aligns with similar downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011. Moody’s now projects US federal debt to climb to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the budget deficit expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP. This deterioration is attributed to rising debt-servicing costs, expanding entitlement programs, and falling tax revenues.Economic data released last week pointed to easing inflation, as both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) signaled a deceleration in price pressures. This has heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement additional rate cuts in 2025, contributing to further weakness in the US Dollar. Additionally, disappointing US Retail Sales figures have deepened concerns over an extended period of sluggish economic growth.On Wednesday, China’s Commerce Ministry stated that US measures on China’s advanced chips are ‘typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism.’ Chinese authorities are looking further into whether the United States is serious about correcting its erroneous practices.The PBoC announced a reduction in its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) on Tuesday. The one-year LPR was lowered from 3.10% to 3.00%, while the five-year LPR was reduced from 3.60% to 3.50%.The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar gained support from renewed optimism surrounding a 90-day US-China trade truce and hopes for further trade deals with other countries. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN on Sunday that President Donald Trump intends to implement tariffs at previously threatened levels on trading partners that do not engage in negotiations “in good faith.”The AUD was also affected by Australia's political unrest. Following the National Party's withdrawal from its collaboration with the Liberal Party, the opposition coalition disbanded. The ruling Labor Party, meanwhile, took advantage of the unrest and retook power with a more robust and expansive agenda.Australian Dollar remains within a confined range despite a bullish biasThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6440 on Thursday. The daily technical indicators reflect a bullish tone as the pair maintains its position above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays above the neutral 50 level, both supporting persistent upward momentum.The immediate resistance appears at the six-month high of 0.6515, recorded on December 2, 2024. A decisive break above this barrier could pave the way for a test of the seven-month high at 0.6687, which was reached in November 2024.On the downside, the nine-day EMA of 0.6427 acts as an immediate support, followed by the 50-day EMA near 0.6367. Further depreciation would undermine the short- to medium-term bullish outlook, possibly opening the path toward the March 2020 low of 0.5914.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.00% -0.02% -0.22% 0.00% 0.09% 0.23% -0.05% EUR 0.00% -0.01% -0.21% 0.00% 0.10% 0.24% -0.05% GBP 0.02% 0.01% -0.23% 0.02% 0.13% 0.24% -0.03% JPY 0.22% 0.21% 0.23% 0.23% 0.33% 0.43% 0.15% CAD -0.00% -0.00% -0.02% -0.23% 0.11% 0.23% -0.05% AUD -0.09% -0.10% -0.13% -0.33% -0.11% 0.13% -0.16% NZD -0.23% -0.24% -0.24% -0.43% -0.23% -0.13% -0.29% CHF 0.05% 0.05% 0.03% -0.15% 0.05% 0.16% 0.29% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator S&P Global Manufacturing PMI The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in Australia’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for AUD. Read more. Last release: Wed May 21, 2025 23:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: - Consensus: - Previous: 51.7 Source: S&P Global the

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1903 vs. 7.1937 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1903 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1937 and 7.2009 Reuters estimate.

03:43 USD/CAD extends the decline to near 1.3850 amid weaker US Dollar
The USD/CAD pair extends its downside to around 1.3855 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

03:31 Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 48.7 to 49 in May
Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 48.7 to 49 in May

03:30 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI: 50.8 (May) vs previous 52.4
Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI: 50.8 (May) vs previous 52.4

03:01 Singapore Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.6%, above forecasts (-1%) in 1Q
Singapore Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.6%, above forecasts (-1%) in 1Q

03:00 Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 3.9%, above forecasts (3.6%) in 1Q
Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 3.9%, above forecasts (3.6%) in 1Q

02:50 Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) registered at 13% above expectations (-1.6%) in March
Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) registered at 13% above expectations (-1.6%) in March

02:50 Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) registered at 8.4% above expectations (-2.2%) in March
Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) registered at 8.4% above expectations (-2.2%) in March

02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥714.9B (May 16) vs ¥439B
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥714.9B (May 16) vs ¥439B

02:37 Japan’s Kato says unsustainable imbalance in some countries behind trade imbalance
US Secretary Scott Bessent and Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato discussed important issues pertaining to the US-Japan economic relationship, including global security and the ongoing bilateral trade discussions between the US and Japan.

02:19 NZD/USD weakens below 0.5950, budget bill concerns might cap its downside
The NZD/USD pair softens to near 0.5930 during the early Asian session on Thursday. However, the downside for the pair might be limited amid rising concerns over the US President Donald Trump administration's tax cut and spending bill and worries over the performance of the US economy.

02:12 EUR/USD rises for a third straight day as Greenback weakness takes hold
EUR/USD caught a bid on Wednesday, breaking through the 1.1300 technical barrier and climbing for a third straight session after market sentiment turned away from the US Dollar following a pummeling of US Treasury markets.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD broke above the 1.1300 handle on Wednesday.Markets soured on the US Dollar after Treasury yields rose and bond demand fell.PMI double-header on the cards for Thursday as business survey results land on both sides of the Pacific.EUR/USD caught a bid on Wednesday, breaking through the 1.1300 technical barrier and climbing for a third straight session after market sentiment turned away from the US Dollar following a pummeling of US Treasury markets. Treasury yields rose and demand for 20-year Treasury bonds fell in a mid-session bond auction, prompting a general pullout from US assets, including the Greenback, which is generally considered a safe haven.US 20-year Treasury yields rose above 5% on Wednesday, sparking a flight out of US capital assets. Even with the rise in yields, investors still turned apprehensive on Treasuries, with bid-to-cover ratios falling below their six-month averages. The US government is on pace to pass President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” for the federal government’s tax and budget plans, which includes steep declines in critical services spending, and even steeper declines in federal tax receipts. The budget bill is broadly expected to add up to $4T to the US deficit over the next ten years. President Trump campaigned on reducing the deficit and eliminating US government debt.Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures are due on Thursday. Pan-European PMIs are expected to rise slightly across the board, while US PMIs are forecast to come mixed. European Services PMI aggregate survey results are expected to rise to 50.3 from 50.1, while the manufacturing segment is expected to improve to 49.3 from 49.0. On the US side, Manufacturing PMIs are expected to tick down to 50.1 from 50.2, while the Services component is seen holding flat at 50.8.EUR/USD price forecastBullish momentum continues to push EUR/USD higher following a technical bounce from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.1100. The pair has closed higher for all but two of the last seven consecutive trading sessions, and price action is tilted firmly to the bullish side as intraday price action looks for a foothold from 1.1300.Technical oscillators are nearly out of room to run, implying a technical reversal could be on the cards in the near-term. However, Fiber is still trading well north of its 200-day EMA near 1.0840.EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:12 Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI comes in at 51.7 in May, Services PMI eases to 50.5
The preliminary reading of Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 51.7 in May versus 51.7 prior, the latest data published by Judo Bank and S&P Global showed on Thursday.

02:02 Australia S&P Global Services PMI down to 50.5 in May from previous 51
Australia S&P Global Services PMI down to 50.5 in May from previous 51

02:02 Australia S&P Global Composite PMI down to 50.6 in May from previous 51
Australia S&P Global Composite PMI down to 50.6 in May from previous 51

01:56 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds near $33.50 as US debt fears fuels haven demand
Silver price extended its rally to three days on Wednesday, edging up 0.21% as the Greenback continued to weaken across the board. Moody’s downgrade to US sovereign debt and the vote of the US fiscal budget, keeps investors seeking safety in the precious metal.

00:22 US yields spike as 20-year auction flops, budget vote looms
US Treasury yields soared on Wednesday as a weaker-than-expected 20-year US bond auction ahead of the vote on the US budget in the US Congress. At the time of writing, the US 10-year T-note benchmark note surges 11 basis points at 4.601%.

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ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

22:47 Canadian officials nod to US tariff discussions at G7, hint that "excess capacity" may exist Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem and Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne gave dueling talking points on Thursday, reviewing their G7 experiences this week.

22:23 Dow Jones Industrial Average finds its footing as bond yields ease back The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) bounced off a fresh bottom on Thursday, clawing its way out of the basement after a sharp tumble during the midweek trading window.

22:07 AUD/USD slips as strong US PMI data offsets fiscal jitters The Australian Dollar (AUD) came under renewed pressure on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) found its footing, with risk appetite fading and broader markets tilting defensively.

21:21 Mexican Peso gains as inflation surprises, but US risks persist The Mexican Peso (MXN) is gaining traction against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, supported by a hotter-than-expected mid-May inflation reading.

19:28 Gold price slips below $3,300 amid firm US Dollar after Trump budget vote Gold price dropped some 0.48% on Thursday and failed to hold onto the $3,300 figure after reaching a two-week high of $3,345 earlier.

18:35 United States 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.22% United States 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.22%

18:02 United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity dipped from previous -5 to -10 in May United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity dipped from previous -5 to -10 in May

18:01 USD/CAD holds ground, weak Canadian data caps losses The US Dollar (USD) continues to face pressure from broad-based macro concerns, including high fiscal deficits, prolonged elevated interest rates, and rising geopolitical tensions.

17:44 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Slides to near 0.5900 The NZD/USD pair falls to near the round level of 0.5900 during North American trading hours on Thursday. The Kiwi pair slumps after the release of the stronger-than-projected United States (US) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for May.

17:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above forecasts (115B) in May 16: Actual (120B) United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above forecasts (115B) in May 16: Actual (120B)

17:00 United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) registered at 4M, below expectations (4.1M) in April United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) registered at 4M, below expectations (4.1M) in April

17:00 United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) climbed from previous -5.9% to -0.5% in April United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) climbed from previous -5.9% to -0.5% in April

16:58 ECB’s Nagel: Interest rate level is not restrictive Joachim Nagel, President of the Bundesbank and member of the ECB’s Governing Council (GC), argued that the bank’s current interest rate level is not considered as restrictive.

16:45 United States S&P Global Services PMI above expectations (50.8) in May: Actual (52.3) United States S&P Global Services PMI above expectations (50.8) in May: Actual (52.3)

16:45 United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.3, above expectations (50.1) in May United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.3, above expectations (50.1) in May

16:45 United States S&P Global Composite PMI increased to 52.1 in May from previous 50.6 United States S&P Global Composite PMI increased to 52.1 in May from previous 50.6

16:34 EUR/GBP pulls back as Eurozone business activity contracts, UK services gain momentum The EUR/GBP cross edges lower on Thursday, retreating after a three-day rally to trade near 0.8420 at the start of the American session as investors digest a mixed batch of economic data from both sides.

16:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ dipped from previous $687.3B to $667.5B Russia Central Bank Reserves $ dipped from previous $687.3B to $667.5B

15:35 Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM): 0.3% (March) vs previous 2.5% Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM): 0.3% (March) vs previous 2.5%

15:30 Canada Industrial Product Price (MoM) came in at -0.8% below forecasts (-0.5%) in April Canada Industrial Product Price (MoM) came in at -0.8% below forecasts (-0.5%) in April

15:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims above forecasts (1.89M) in May 9: Actual (1.903M) United States Continuing Jobless Claims above forecasts (1.89M) in May 9: Actual (1.903M)

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 227K, below expectations (230K) in May 16 United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 227K, below expectations (230K) in May 16

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average rose from previous 230.5K to 231.5K in May 16 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average rose from previous 230.5K to 231.5K in May 16

15:30 United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell from previous -0.03 to -0.25 in April United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell from previous -0.03 to -0.25 in April

15:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index below expectations (-2.2%) in April: Actual (-3%) Canada Raw Material Price Index below expectations (-2.2%) in April: Actual (-3%)

15:26 GBP/USD turns cautious on UK PMI Manufacturing miss, with focus on US data The British Pound Sterling (GBP) has been gaining steadily against the US Dollar (USD) since January, reflecting diverging economic conditions between the United Kingdom and the United States.

15:00 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets forecasts (0.8%) in 1Q Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets forecasts (0.8%) in 1Q

15:00 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets expectations (0.2%) in 1Q Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets expectations (0.2%) in 1Q

15:00 Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation meets forecasts (0.16%) in May Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation meets forecasts (0.16%) in May

15:00 Mexico 1st half-month Inflation above forecasts (-0.1%) in May: Actual (0.09%) Mexico 1st half-month Inflation above forecasts (-0.1%) in May: Actual (0.09%)

14:41 JPY outperforming with modest gain – Scotiabank Japanese Yen (JPY) is entering Thursday’s NA session with a modest gain against the US Dollar (USD), a lone performer in an environment of mild (albeit broad-based) USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:31 CAD steady, risk reversal pricing, technical lean bullish – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is down marginally, reflecting the minor lift in the US Dollar (USD) generally more than anything else.

14:20 Bessent and Kato commit to market-determined exchange rates – Commerzbank This US administration does not formulate any doctrine or strategy in important policy areas that could serve as guidelines for current policy measures.

14:20 AUD/USD slips below 0.6420 ahead of US PMI data The Australian Dollar (AUD) inches lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, erasing earlier gains. The AUD/USD pair is holding within a narrow range, down 0.50% at the time of writing, to trade around 0.6420 in the European trading hours.

14:12 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Flattens around 143.50 The USD/JPY pair recoups its initial losses and flattens around 143.50 during European trading hours on Thursday. The pair rebounds as the US Dollar (USD) attracts bids on Thursday after a three-day losing streak.

14:09 AUD slips as soft PMI reinforces RBA dovishness – BBH AUD/USD remains under pressure as weak May PMI data supports expectations for RBA rate cuts. The pair struggles to hold above its 200-DMA, with markets now pricing in 75bps of easing over the next year, BBH FX analysts report.

14:02 Gold retreats as US Dollar rebounds, outlook remains firm on US debt concerns Gold price (XAU/USD) gives up its intraday gains and falls back to near $3,300 during European trading hours on Thursday after revisiting the two-week high around $3,345 earlier in the day.

14:00 US House Passes Trump tax bill, sends it to Senate United States (US) President Donald Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill passed the Republican-controlled House of Representatives on Thursday. The bill will now move to the Senate floor.

12:56 EUR/GBP rises after UK inflation surprise challenges BoE outlook – Danske Bank EUR/GBP ended the day higher following UK inflation data for April surprising significantly to the topside, relative to both consensus and BoE estimate, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

12:52 ECB's Holzmann: The Euro's importance as a global currency is set to increase European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Robert Holzmann said on Thursday, “the Euro's importance as a global currency is set to increase.”

12:49 Current upward bias to remain intact above the 55-day EMA – UOB Group Improving upward momentum indicates EUR/USD could maintain its upward bias; it is premature to expect a retest of the 1.1573 high, UOB Group's FX analyst Quek Ser Leang reports.

12:35 G7 FX talks fuel USD bearishness – Danske Bank EUR/USD edged higher above 1.13 as the USD continues to soften in an otherwise relatively quiet week for G10 FX, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

12:33 Silver price today: Silver broadly unchanged, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

12:21 USD: Trading US deficit fears – ING Yesterday, we suggested that the G7 finance ministers’ meeting in Canada could produce USD-supportive headlines, particularly if there were signs of easing trade tensions.

12:16 The wonderfully normal Bank of England – Commerzbank Inflation rose sharply in the United Kingdom in April – more than analysts had expected. This was reported yesterday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The surprisingly high increase was broad-based.

11:58 Spain 3-y Bond Auction rose from previous 2.086% to 2.251% Spain 3-y Bond Auction rose from previous 2.086% to 2.251%

11:57 GBP: EUR/GBP drop delayed – ING April’s rise in UK services inflation was mostly down to a temporary spike in air fares and package holidays caused by the timing of Easter—an effect that should unwind soon, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

11:48 ECB’s Vujčić: Eurozone growth positive but low European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Boris Vujčić said on Thursday that the “Eurozone growth positive but low.”

11:45 EUR: Another leg higher in EUR/USD may be inevitable – ING European currencies continue to gain ground, supported by a rotation out of US assets, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

11:43 RBA’s Hauser: Australian exporters are upbeat about resilience of China demand Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on Thursday, “Australian exporters are upbeat about resilience of China demand.”

11:32 UK Preliminary Services PMI rebounds to 50.2 in May vs. 50 expected The seasonally adjusted S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to 45.1 in May from 45.4 in April. The data missed the market forecast of 46 in the reported period.

11:32 AUD/JPY falls below 92.50, further downside appears due to rising odds of BoJ rate hikes AUD/JPY hits a fresh two-week low, with trading around 92.30 during the European hours on Thursday.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (46) in May: Actual (45.1) United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (46) in May: Actual (45.1)

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 49.4, above forecasts (49.3) in May United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 49.4, above forecasts (49.3) in May

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (50) in May: Actual (50.2) United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (50) in May: Actual (50.2)

11:04 German IFO Business Climate Index climbs to 87.5 in May vs. 87.4 expected The headline German IFO Business Climate Index rose to 87.5 in May from 86.9 in April. The data came in slightly above the market forecast of 87.4.

11:02 Germany IFO – Expectations above forecasts (88) in May: Actual (88.9) Germany IFO – Expectations above forecasts (88) in May: Actual (88.9)

11:01 Eurozone Preliminary Manufacturing PMI rises to 49.4 in May vs. 49.3 expected The Eurozone manufacturing sector remained in contraction, while services sector also followed suit in May, according to data from the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, published on Thursday.

11:00 Germany IFO – Business Climate above expectations (87.4) in May: Actual (87.5) Germany IFO – Business Climate above expectations (87.4) in May: Actual (87.5)

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (50.3) in May: Actual (48.9) Eurozone HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (50.3) in May: Actual (48.9)

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (49.3) in May: Actual (48.4) Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (49.3) in May: Actual (48.4)

11:00 S&P Global PMIs expected to show modest US economic slowdown in May S&P Global will release the preliminary May Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the United States at 13:45 GMT on Thursday.

10:55 US Dollar Index stays above 99.50 ahead of PMI data, voting on Trump tax cut bill The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, holds gains after registering losses in the previous three successive sessions.

10:31 German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI improves to 48.8 in May vs. 48.9 expected The German manufacturing sector activity picked up and the services sector deepened its contraction in May, the preliminary business activity report published by the HCOB survey showed on Thursday.

10:30 Germany HCOB Services PMI below expectations (49.5) in May: Actual (47.2) Germany HCOB Services PMI below expectations (49.5) in May: Actual (47.2)

10:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 48.8, below expectations (48.9) in May Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 48.8, below expectations (48.9) in May

10:30 Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.6 below forecasts (50.4) in May Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.6 below forecasts (50.4) in May

10:26 Forex Today: Attention turns to May PMI data from major economies Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 22:

10:15 France HCOB Composite PMI meets forecasts (48) in May France HCOB Composite PMI meets forecasts (48) in May

10:15 France HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (47.5) in May: Actual (47.4) France HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (47.5) in May: Actual (47.4)

10:15 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (48.9) in May: Actual (49.5) France HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (48.9) in May: Actual (49.5)

09:45 France Business Climate in Manufacturing registered at 97, below expectations (99) in May France Business Climate in Manufacturing registered at 97, below expectations (99) in May

09:17 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.60 per barrel, up from Wednesday’s close at $61.23.

09:00 United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing registered at £20.155B above expectations (£17.9B) in April United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing registered at £20.155B above expectations (£17.9B) in April

08:52 BoJ’s Noguchi: Recent rise in long-term rates likely won't have impact on our new bond taper plan Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the “recent rise in long-term rates likely won't have an impact on our new bond taper plan to be decided in June.”

08:43 FX option expiries for May 22 NY cut FX option expiries for May 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

08:39 EUR/GBP remains below 0.8450, moves little ahead of PMI data from both economies EUR/GBP posts little losses after registering gains in the previous three consecutive days. The currency cross trades lower at around 0.8440 during Thursday’s Asian hours.

08:26 USD/CAD trades with negative bias around mid-1.3800s, just above two-week low The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.3815-1.3810 region, or a two-week low, and trades with a negative bias for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday.

07:50 NZD/USD keeps the red above 0.5900 after NZ budget, downside seems cushioned The NZD/USD pair extends the previous day's late pullback from the 0.5965-0.5670 area, or a one-week high, and attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Thursday.