Forex News Timeline

23:01 EUR/USD rallies for third day as US debt fears grow ahead of US budget vote
EUR/USD extended its rally for the third consecutive day on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) continued to face headwinds following the credit downgrade of the United States last Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Moody’s cuts US debt rating, igniting US Dollar selloff and boosting EUR/USD.Euro gains despite light data flow as ECB and Fed speeches guide sentiment.Traders eye PMIs and jobless claims for fresh cues amid fiscal uncertainty.EUR/USD extended its rally for the third consecutive day on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) continued to face headwinds following the credit downgrade of the United States last Friday. This, along with the vote for Trump's “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” is weighing on traders, as it will increase the national debt, which has been deemed unsustainable by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.The single currency continues to capitalize on broad US Dollar weakness. Moody’s downward revision to the US government debt rating from AAA to Aa1 on Friday ignited investors' fears over the weekend as the Trump administration budget will be subject to a vote in the US Congress.The lack of economic data in the Eurozone (EU) and the US keeps traders entertained by speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) and Fed officials. Additionally, US trade deal talks, market sentiment and geopolitics have helped shape the EUR/USD’s path.Recently, ECB member Jose Luis Escriva commented that the recent appreciation of the Euro had been a surprise, adding that it would be more challenging to predict how tariffs impact inflation.On Thursday, the economic schedule will feature HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for May in the EU, Germany and France. Across the pond, the US economic docket will feature Initial Jobless Claims data and S&P Global PMIs, which are expected to remain unchanged, according to estimates.EUR/USD daily market movers: Boosted by USD sell-off as markets punish US policiesUS House Majority Leader Scalise said that the US House of Representatives will vote on Trump’s tax bill late Wednesday. Earlier, US President Donald Trump expressed confidence in the bill's progress in Congress.Trump confirmed that truce talks between Russia and Ukraine would commence; he stated that the negotiations would take place in Vatican City.A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine will benefit both countries, easing supply chain disruptions across Europe.Interest rate probabilities indicate a 58% chance that the ECB will reduce rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming June 5 meeting. Most ECB officials had expressed favoring a cut at the next meeting, followed by a pause.HCOB PMI data in the EU is expected to show a minimal improvement in the Manufacturing PMI, but not in Services and Composite. Despite remaining in expansionary territory, this highlights the ongoing global economic slowdown.German PM Merz confirmed a meeting with US President Trump and indicated a proposal to eliminate tariffs mutually. Merz expressed optimism that the US may be open to pursuing a trade agreement with the EU, signaling a potential thaw in transatlantic trade tensions.EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls ready to challenge 1.1400The EUR/USD remains bullishly biased. The pair cleared the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1277 and is on its way to hit a two-week high of 1.1362, surpassing the 1.1300 mark.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that momentum favors buyers.Hence, the EUR/USD next resistance would be 1.1400. A breach of the latter will expose the April 29 peak at 1.1421, followed by the April 11 high of 1.1473 and 1.15.On the bearish front, sellers need to pull prices below 1.1300. This would pave the way to test the May 20 daily low of 1.1217, followed by 1.12 and the 50-day SMA at 1.1130. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

22:59 President Trump's budget bill headed for vote in US Congress
The United States (US) House of Representatives is poised to begin casting votes on the Republican party's tax and budget bill that is front-loaded with many of President Donald Trump's wishlist items.

The United States (US) House of Representatives is poised to begin casting votes on the Republican party's tax and budget bill that is front-loaded with many of President Donald Trump's wishlist items. President Trump has colloquially refered to the tax and budget bill as a "big, beautiful bill", leading Congressional Republicans to officially rename the document the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act".Key Republicans have been hammering on dissidents to the bill within their own party after several hard-line Republicans voiced displeasure with the budget outline: some felt that the budget doesn't include enough cuts to critical federal spending programs like Medicaid, while others felt that the budget does the exact opposite of the Republican platform's stated goals of reducing the government deficit.The budget bill is expected to be voted on sometime Thursday, and if passed, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is poised to add somewhere between $3T and $4T to the US federal budget deficit over the next ten years.

22:56 WTI Crude Oil faces major resistance at $62.00
Oil prices have been under persistent pressure since the inauguration of US President Donald Trump in January, weighed down by a combination of recession fears, rising global supply, and a softer US Dollar.

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These factors have collectively contributed to renewed weakness in the liquid commodity, dampening the bullish momentum that previously supported elevated energy prices.For West-Texas Intermediary (WTI) Crude Oil - the US benchmark extracted primarily from Texas and surrounding regions - prices found support late last year as global trade resumed and post-pandemic demand surged. This resurgence helped lift energy prices through the final months of last year, particularly as supply remained constrained.Oil prices have been under persistent pressure since the inauguration of US President Donald Trump in January, weighed down by a combination of recession fears, rising global supply, and a softer US Dollar. These factors have collectively contributed to renewed weakness in the liquid commodity, dampening the bullish momentum that previously supported elevated energy prices.For West-Texas Intermediary (WTI) Crude Oil - the US benchmark extracted primarily from Texas and surrounding regions - prices found support late last year as global trade resumed and post-pandemic demand surged. This resurgence helped lift energy prices through the final months of last year, particularly as supply remained constrained.However, under the Trump administration, new energy policy priorities, which have included proposals to expand domestic oil production and ease environmental regulations, have shifted market expectations for long-term supply growth. These developments, coupled with lingering macroeconomic uncertainty and slowing growth in major economies, have altered the broader supply-demand outlook moving into mid-2025.Adding to the downward pressure on crude, fresh data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed a larger-than-expected build in domestic crude inventories, signaling potential demand weakness and reinforcing concerns about oversupply. The rise in stockpiles comes amid ongoing increases in production from both non-OPEC players, including US shale, and OPEC+, which has recently confirmed plans to ramp up output to defend market share. These supply-side pressures have further weighed on WTI, now trading below $62 per barrel.Despite known risks surrounding the oil market, including inflation sensitivity and fiscal spillovers, geopolitical developments remain a key wildcard. On Wednesday, reports surfaced that Israel may be preparing potential strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, briefly pushing prices higher before gains faded in the wake of bearish inventory data. The potential for escalation in the Middle East could reintroduce risk premiums, particularly if supply routes are disrupted, though for now, the market appears more focused on structural imbalances.WTI rally runs out of fuel below $62.00From a technical standpoint, WTI crude recently attempted to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level ($64.179) of the January–April YTD decline. However, the rally was capped by strong selling pressure, forming a long upper wick on the daily candlestick, a classic sign of bullish exhaustion and a potential reversal point.This reinforces the $64.00 region as key resistance, and unless buyers can regain control above this level, near-term price action may favor further consolidation or downside movement.The 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $61.68 is acting as dynamic support, while a clean break lower could expose the next support zone at $60.58 (23.6% Fib).WTI Crude Oil daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

22:44 Canadian Dollar rises as Greenback withers on Wednesday
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) caught a firm bid on Wednesday, climbing one-half of one percent during the midweek market session.

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Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

22:14 Forex Today: It’s PMI-day!!!
The US Dollar (USD) maintained its weekly leg lower well in place weakening to new two-week lows on the back of rising concerns over the US fiscal position in light of President Trump’s tax bill and worries over the performance of the US economy.

The US Dollar (USD) maintained its weekly leg lower well in place weakening to new two-week lows on the back of rising concerns over the US fiscal position in light of President Trump’s tax bill and worries over the performance of the US economy.Here’s what to watch on Thursday, May 22:The US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, breaking below the psychological 100.00 support to hit new two-week troughs. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index is due, seconded by the usual Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, and the advanced S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs.EUR/USD surpassed the key 1.1300 barrier and advanced to new two-week highs, always on the back of the intense sell-off in the Greenback. The preliminary HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected in Germany and the euro area, along with Germany’s IFO Business Climate and the release of the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. In addition, the ECB’s Elderson and De Guindos are due to speak.GBP/USD reached the 1.3470 zone for the first time since February 2022 following the weaker US Dollar and higher-than-estimated UK inflation data. The Public Sector Net Borrowing figures will be published, followed by the CBI Industrial Trends Orders, and the flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs. Furthermore, the BoE’s Pill and Breeden will speak.There was no respite for the downward trend in USD/JPY. That said, spot dropped for the seventh day in a row, revisiting the mid-143.00s, or two-week troughs. In Japan, Machinery Orders readings are due, ahead of the advanced Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and the weekly Foreign Bond Investment data. The BoJ’s Noguchi will speak as well.AUD/USD extended its weekly choppiness and resumed its uptrend, leaving behind Tuesday’s decline and retesting the 0.6460 region. The preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due, while the RBA’s Hauser is also due to speak.WTI reversed initial gains just above the $64.00 mark per barrel and deflated below $62.00 amid fears of potential supply disruptions and larger-than-expected weekly inventories, as per the EIA’s report.Gold rose to weekly highs north of the $3,300 mark per troy ounce in response to the selling pressure hurting the US Dollar and persistent geopolitical effervescence. Silver prices, in the meantime, climbed to new three-week tops past the $33.00 mark per ounce.

20:54 Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbles on Wednesday, shedding 800 points
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) recoiled on Wednesday, tumbling 800 and testing below 42,000 after demand for United States (US) Treasuries declined.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Dow Jones fell on Wednesday, shedding 800 points at its lowest and slipping below 42,000.Investors have pivoted to concerns about the US federal budget which will send US deficits higher, not lower.Market concerns that the Trump administration’s bespoke budget won’t actually do anything to fix inflation or US debt issues sent Treasury yields higher, putting downward pressure on equity markets.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) recoiled on Wednesday, tumbling 800 and testing below 42,000 after demand for United States (US) Treasuries declined. Financial markets are showing waning interest and confidence in US debt financing, even with 20-year Treasury bonds offering a yield north of 5% for the first time since October of 2023. The bid-to-cover on 16B worth of 20-year Treasuries fell below its six-month average of 2.57, slipping to 2.46 and sending market sentiment into a brief tailspin.The US government inches closer to approving US President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful budget” that will add almost four trillion dollars to the US deficit over the next decade. The deficit-swelling budget comes less than a week after Moody’s downgraded US sovereign debt, citing long-running failures by the US government to reel in government spending or sufficiently increase tax receipts.A rate cut, a rate cut, my kingdom for a rate cut!Investor hopes for another rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to get pushed further out this year. According to Fed policymakers, the looming threat that US tariffs could reignite inflation and throw a wrench in US economic growth is limiting their ability to adjust policy rates as they wait for clear data. The Trump administration is barreling towards the end of its own “reciprocal tariffs” suspension deadline, and evidence of ink-on-paper trade deals remains functionally non-existent. With the future of US trade policy muddying the waters, rate traders are now split on whether the Fed will deliver its first quarter-point rate cut in September or October.Read more stock news: US stock market slips despite Republicans inching closer to major tax cutsDow Jones price forecastFundamentals have bled through the chart paper, taking over market dynamics as investors react to headlines about trade and federal budgets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is still trading above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 41,570, at least for now. Bullish price action continues to have the wind knocked out of its sails, and buyers have thus far struggled to muscle the major equity index back to the 43,000 handle.Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

20:44 Gold holds above $3,300 as geopolitical risks, US debt woes mount
Gold prices advance by over 0.50% and remain above the $3,300 mark as traders grow increasingly nervous about the United States (US) tax bill vote, along with escalating tensions in the Middle East. XAU/USD trades at $3,307 after bouncing off a daily low of $3,285.

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XAU/USD trades at $3,307 after bouncing off a daily low of $3,285.The market mood remains downbeat as major US equity indices post losses while US Treasury bond yields rise. Market participants are awaiting the approval of President Trump’s tax-cut bill, which, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), would add nearly $3.8 trillion to the US national debt.The approval could underpin US stocks higher. However, the Greenback’s reaction is uncertain following Moody’s downgrade of US government debt last Friday, which triggered a USD sell-off, as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY).The DXY, which tracks the performance of the American currency against six others, declines 0.52% to 99.49, a tailwind for bullion prices.Heightened tensions in the Middle East boosted Gold prices, even though China-US tensions de-escalated as Beijing and Washington substantially reduced tariffs for 90 days to kick off negotiations to achieve a trade deal.This week, traders will eye Fed speeches, Flash PMIs, housing data and Initial Jobless Claims.Gold daily market movers: Gold rallies amid high US Treasury bond yields, weak US DollarUS Treasury bond yields are skyrocketing as the US 10-year Treasury note yield climbs nine and a half bps to 4.58%. Meanwhile, US real yields are also up nine and a half basis points at 2.229%.Bullion prices are rising due to concerns about the increase in US debt. Last week, Moody’s, the international rating agency, downgraded the US government rating from AAA to AA1, propelling Gold prices higher as the US Dollar got ditched and the US fiscal position worsened.On Tuesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers commented that monetary policy is appropriate, acknowledging that rising US import tariffs are inflation-prone and warrant holding rates.Gold price could extend its gains, boosted by geopolitical news. On Tuesday, CNN news, citing multiple sources, revealed that Israel is preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities.Data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) suggests that traders are pricing in 48.5 basis points of easing towards the end of the year.XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold poised to test $3,350 as bulls gather steamGold price rally extended for the third straight day, as price action has printed successive days of higher highs and higher lows, with buyers eyeing key resistance levels. Momentum, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests that the uptrend will continue before the RSI gets to overbought territory, which could warrant a pause lying ahead.Therefore, Gold's first resistance would be the $3,350 psychological level. Once surpassed, the next target would be $3,400, followed by the May 7 daily high of $3,438, before testing the all-time high (ATH) at $3,500.For a bearish reversal, Gold bears must drag spot prices below $3,300. Once cleared, immediate support emerges at a May 20 daily low of $3,204, ahead of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,184. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

20:35 United States 20-Year Bond Auction climbed from previous 4.81% to 5.047%
United States 20-Year Bond Auction climbed from previous 4.81% to 5.047%

18:45 GBP/USD soars to new yearly high as UK inflation surges, BoE rate cuts in doubt
The Pound Sterling rose to a new year-to-date (YTD) high of 1.3468 against the US Dollar on Wednesday as UK inflation rose, drifting away from the Bank of England's (BoE) 2% target, which had led to interest rate reductions earlier in the month.

18:43 NZD/USD climbs as record US trade surplus boosts Kiwi confidence
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with the release of a record trade surplus in April highlighting the largest monthly goods surplus on record with the United States.

17:58 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD extends upside to near $33.20 on US credit downgrade
Silver price (XAG/USD) hits a fresh weekly high to near $33.20 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The white metal strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) extends its downside on the United States (US) credit rating erosion in the wake of large debt levels and escalated fiscal imbalances.

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The white metal strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) extends its downside on the United States (US) credit rating erosion in the wake of large debt levels and escalated fiscal imbalances.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slumps to near 99.50, the lowest level seen in two weeks. Technically, a soft US Dollar makes the Silver price a value bet for investors. Additionally, concerns over US credit erosion improve the safe-haven demand of non-yielding assets, such as Silver. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.49% -0.30% -0.57% -0.51% -0.54% -0.56% -0.48% EUR 0.49% 0.19% -0.11% -0.04% -0.02% -0.07% 0.01% GBP 0.30% -0.19% -0.29% -0.21% -0.20% -0.25% -0.19% JPY 0.57% 0.11% 0.29% 0.05% 0.04% 0.00% 0.09% CAD 0.51% 0.04% 0.21% -0.05% -0.03% -0.04% 0.02% AUD 0.54% 0.02% 0.20% -0.04% 0.03% -0.04% 0.04% NZD 0.56% 0.07% 0.25% -0.00% 0.04% 0.04% 0.07% CHF 0.48% -0.01% 0.19% -0.09% -0.02% -0.04% -0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the US Sovereign Credit rating by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa amid concerns over ballooning debt levels to near $36 trillion. The credit rating firm also warned of debt levels widening further, with US President Donald Trump aiming to pass a new tax-cut bill to fulfil his economic agenda.However, Republican lawmakers didn’t back the new tax bill in a closed-door meeting on Capitol Hill on Tuesday due to disagreement over higher deductions in state and local tax payments, according to a Republican Representative Mike Lawler, Reuters reported.Meanwhile, investors keep a close eye on the Russia-Ukraine truce talks in the Vatican City. On Monday, US President Trump confirmed immediate ceasefire talks between Moscow and Kyiv through a post on Truth. Social, but didn’t mention any specific timeframe. Trump expressed confidence that talks would be majorly about ending the war and not a temporary truce. Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War," Trump said. Signs of progress in the Russia-Ukraine truce talks towards ending the war will be unfavorable for safe-haven assets, such as Silver.Silver technical analysisSilver price delivers a breakout of the Descending Triangle formation on a daily timeframe, which results in a strong upside move. The near-term trend of the white metal is bullish as it holds the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $32.65.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend. Should a fresh bullish momentum emerge if the RSI breaks above 60.00.Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change registered at 1.328M above expectations (-1.85M) in May 16
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change registered at 1.328M above expectations (-1.85M) in May 16

17:03 German Chancellor Merz: There are signs US could be interested in deal with EU
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Wednesday that there are signs that the United States (US) could be interested in having a trade deal with the European Union (EU), per Reuters.

16:58 EUR/JPY ticks down to near 163.00, Russia-Ukraine truce talks in focus
The EUR/JPY pair edges down to near 162.90 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The cross ticks lower as the Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms across the board, with investors remaining increasingly confident that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again this year.

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The cross ticks lower as the Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms across the board, with investors remaining increasingly confident that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again this year. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.44% -0.30% -0.50% -0.34% -0.34% -0.34% -0.38% EUR 0.44% 0.12% -0.10% 0.07% 0.12% 0.10% 0.05% GBP 0.30% -0.12% -0.21% -0.04% -0.00% -0.03% -0.10% JPY 0.50% 0.10% 0.21% 0.15% 0.17% 0.15% 0.12% CAD 0.34% -0.07% 0.04% -0.15% 0.00% 0.02% -0.06% AUD 0.34% -0.12% 0.00% -0.17% 0.00% -0.01% -0.08% NZD 0.34% -0.10% 0.03% -0.15% -0.02% 0.00% -0.06% CHF 0.38% -0.05% 0.10% -0.12% 0.06% 0.08% 0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). Earlier this week, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida expressed confidence that inflation in Japan will likely re-accelerate after a period of slowdown, a scenario that will keep hopes of interest rate hikes alive.Inflation in Japan is expected to cool down for a period amid uncertainty over the global economic outlook due to the fallout of tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump.This week, the major trigger for the Japanese Yen (JPY) will be US-Japan trade talks on the weekend. Japan’s Kyodo News agency reported on Tuesday that top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa will visit Washington for trade discussions later this week. The agency also reported on Tuesday that Japan to consider accepting lower US tariff rates, and not demanding exemption.Though investors have underpinned the JPY against the Euro (EUR), the major currency is outperforming its other peers ahead of ceasefire talks to end war in Ukraine. US President Trump stated through a post on Truth.Social that both Russia and Ukraine have agreed for truce talks in the Vatican City. Signs of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine would be favorable for the Euro.On the monetary policy front, European Central Bank (ECB) officials continue to argue in favor of lowering interest rates further to offset downside inflation risks. "The ECB may need to cut its key interest rate below the neutral level of 1.5%-2% to prevent inflation from falling below its 2% target," ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Bank of Portugal Mario Centeno said in a briefing during European trading hours. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

15:43 USD/JPY dips below support as the battle between safe-haven currencies persists
The US Dollar (USD) continues to weaken against the Japanese Yen (JPY), as shifting economic conditions and central bank outlooks reshape expectations for both currencies.

15:32 Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 0.1% to -0.6% in April
Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 0.1% to -0.6% in April

15:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) registered at -0.4%, below expectations (0.1%) in April
Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) registered at -0.4%, below expectations (0.1%) in April

15:28 Loonie strengthens for third day as core inflation rises, US Dollar stumbles
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens further against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, marking a three-day rally, with USD/CAD slipping below 1.3900 as markets digest stronger-than-expected Canadian inflation figures and a broadly subdued Greenback.

15:03 JPY showing impressive gains vs. USD – Scotiabank
Japanese Yen (JPY) is entering Wednesday’s NA session with an impressive 0.4% gain vs. the US Dollar (USD), a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Japanese Yen (JPY) is entering Wednesday’s NA session with an impressive 0.4% gain vs. the US Dollar (USD), a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Spreads remain steady"Market participants remain focused on Japan’s government bond market and the recent surge in yields, a consequence of the BoJ’s policy normalization and its scaling back of large-scale bond purchases." "Policymakers at the BoJ have been speaking to market participants this week, in the context of Tuesday’s poor 20-year bond auction, as they are preparing to unveil further adjustments at next month’s policy decision in mid-June." "Recent market turbulence is challenging the central bank’s plans for normalization. Trouble appears concentrated at the long end however, as we note the relative stability of US-Japan yield spreads at both the two-year and 10-year horizon."

15:00 US Dollar weakens for third straight day as US fiscal concerns linger
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, slips for a third consecutive day on Wednesday as markets brace for another playing field of geopolitical tensions.

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Israel’s reported plans to target Iranian nuclear facilities raise doubts among traders about Trump’s ability to handle tensions in the Middle East.. The US Dollar Index slips below 100.00 as it ekes out further losses. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, slips for a third consecutive day on Wednesday as markets brace for another playing field of geopolitical tensions. Throughout the week, the USD has already paid the price for the volatile policy swings from the Trump administration, which is facing difficulties on several fronts.US President Trump apparently no longer has firm control over Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In his tour of the Middle East, Trump announced it was time for a new nuclear deal with Iran and a second chance. However, in late trading hours on Tuesday, CNN reported that Israel considers striking nuclear installations in Iran – something that former President Joe Biden was able to avoid –, and undoes President Trump’s diplomatic efforts from the past few days in the region.The second front is domestic, with another failure for what Trump calls the “Big Beautiful Bill”. Trump got frustrated with demands to significantly boost the cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, signaling a deadlock in passing a giant tax-cut bill. Trump told lawmakers not to let the SALT deduction or differences over social safety-net cuts impede the bill, but lawmakers from high-tax states and conservative hardliners are still opposed to the bill unless their changes are made, Bloomberg reports. Daily digest market movers: More of the sameThe weekly Mortgage Applications fell by -5.1% against the previous number at a 1.1% increase the week before. Around 16:15 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) of Richmond President Thomas Barkin will hold a speech with possible market comments. Fed’s Barkin already spoke earlier this week, saying that it will take several months, even into the summer, before the economic situation and US data stabilizes.. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will also participate in the event.Equities are on the backfoot with US futures are in the red by more than 0.50%.The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June’s meeting at just 5.4%. Further ahead, the July 30 decision sees odds for rates being lower than current levels at 26.9%. Recent hawkish comments from Fed officials have reduced the chances of a rate cut in the short term.The US 10-year yields trade around 4.53%, cooling down from the steep rally seen on Monday. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Could get worseThe US Dollar Index is cracking under pressure and is starting to look very bleak. In early Wednesday trading, the DXY extended losses below the 100.00 threshold after closing below the substantial floor at 100.22 the previous day, which could lead the index to make a nosedive move. With the recent geopolitical headlines, traders are coming more and more to the conclusion that President Trump might face several substantial setbacks in his term and policy implementation. On the upside, the broken ascending trend line and the 100.22 level, which held the DXY back in September-October, are the first resistance zone. Further up, 101.90 is the next big resistance again as it already acted as a pivotal level throughout December 2023 and as a base for the inverted head-and-shoulders (H&S) formation during the summer of 2024. The 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 101.94 reinforces this area as strong resistance. In case Dollar bulls push the DXY even higher, the 103.18 pivotal level comes into play.If the downward pressure continues, a nosedive move could materialize towards the year-to-date low of 97.91 and the pivotal level of 97.73. Further below, a relatively thin technical support comes in at 96.94 before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

15:00 Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) above expectations (0.1%) in March: Actual (0.5%)
Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) above expectations (0.1%) in March: Actual (0.5%)

15:00 Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) above forecasts (2.2%) in March: Actual (4.3%)
Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) above forecasts (2.2%) in March: Actual (4.3%)

15:00 GBP trades to fresh multi-year high – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering Wednesday’s NA session with a 0.1% gain again the US Dollar (USD) but losses against most of the remaining G10 currencies, trading erratically in response to the release of stronger than expected inflation data, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering Wednesday’s NA session with a 0.1% gain again the US Dollar (USD) but losses against most of the remaining G10 currencies, trading erratically in response to the release of stronger than expected inflation data, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. RSI is bullish but not yet overbought"BoE rate cuts have been pared back with markets taking out ~5bpts of easing by December, relative to Tuesday. These adjustments are offering the pound some support via spreads, paving the way for fundamental rate support following an erosion (narrowing) observed since early April.""GBP/USD is looking well supported, pushing to a fresh multi-year high, reaching levels last seen in February 2022. The RSI is bullish but not yet overbought, and resistance is limited ahead of the psychologically important 1.35 level."

14:57 AUD/USD: Break-out soon? – OCBC
Australian Dollar (AUD) fell post-dovish RBA yesterday. AUD last at 0.6445 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Australian Dollar (AUD) fell post-dovish RBA yesterday. AUD last at 0.6445 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias for now"But the decline was also somewhat restrained, likely due to a softer USD trend. As much as domestic policy matters, external developments can also more than offset. A somewhat more constructive risk backdrop (i.e. China optimism, etc.) alongside bearish dollar trend should see still be supportive of AUD view.""Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias for now. Immediate resistance at 0.6460 (200 DMA), 0.6550 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2024 high to 2025 low). Break out should open room for further upside. Support at 0.6420 (21 DMA), 0.6340 (50DMA)."

14:54 USD, Treasuries and US equity futures weaken – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is trading weaker on the session. It’s another one of those uncomfortable 'sell everything' days for the US.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading weaker on the session. It’s another one of those uncomfortable 'sell everything' days for the US. The USD is down while Treasurys are selling off, pushing 10Y yields over 4.5% amid worries about the impact of the (currently stalled) tax-cut bill on US debt and deficits, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD slides as Treasuries weaken and equity sentiment softens"Higher rates are clearly unhelpful for US growth prospects. Equities are softer in Europe and US equity futures are lower. Higher yields and concerns about reports that Israel is considering a strike in Iran’s nuclear facilities are weighing on risk appetite. Crude is up around 1% and gold is firmer. The SEK and NOK are outperforming while the ZAR and MXN are underperforming on the day. Broader USD sentiment looks fragile again. G7 Finance Ministers and central bankers are currently meeting in Canada. A wide range of issues are up for discussion but trade and tariffs will be front and center for officials." "FX may feature in bilateral talks (US/Japan) in the next day or so and that may also be weighing on USD sentiment. Asian countries appear to be in the crosshairs for the US Treasury regarding FX policy. Taiwan and South Korea indicated that they have been discussing exchange rates with the US, fueling market concerns that the US may be seeking some adjustments in the USD. It seems unlikely (to us) that any country in the region would agree to a (significant) unilateral revaluation of their currency that would put them at a disadvantage to their regional trading peers." "And a broader realignment in the USD looks unlikely while countries are still assessing President Trump’s tariff policies and their consequences. Still, the chatter can only add to the sentiment that a weaker USD may yet work its way into US trade policy at some point. On the charts, DXY losses through the base of the past month’s consolidation range (now resistance at 100.3) risk triggering a renewed (and possibly significant) leg lower in the index; support is 98.9 ahead of a retest of the April low at 97.9. The Treasury is auctioning USD16bn in 20Y bonds (note government bond auctions in Europe were affected by a Bloomberg system problem earlier today)."

14:50 USD/JPY extends its decline – OCBC
USD/JPY extended its decline following the broad decline in USD. USD/JPY was last at 143.74 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD/JPY extended its decline following the broad decline in USD. USD/JPY was last at 143.74 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Bullish momentum on daily chart is fading "USD/JPY extended its decline, tracking the broad decline in USD and concerns over reports on a potential Israel strike on Iran (leading to safe haven flows) while Japan’s plan to meet US during the G7 meeting (on 23 May) to discuss topics including FX kept the pair pressured." "Bullish momentum on daily chart shows signs of fading while RSI fell. Support next at 142.30, 141.80 levels. Resistance at 144.40/50 levels (21 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low), 146 (50 DMA). We kept our short USD/JPY (entered at 148 as per FX Weekly 13 May), targeting a move towards 141. SL at 151."

14:46 CAD gets a mild tailwind from narrower spreads after CPI to press gains on USD – Scotiabank
Yesterday’s hotter than expected April CPI data served to dampen expectations of a June BoC rate cut, putting some moderate, downward pressure on US/Canada interest rate spreads, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Yesterday’s hotter than expected April CPI data served to dampen expectations of a June BoC rate cut, putting some moderate, downward pressure on US/Canada interest rate spreads, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Trend momentum oscillators are picking up bearishly for the USD"Markets continue to price in some risk of a BoC cut—Scotia anticipates a hold at the June decision at this point—but the narrowing in short-term rate spreads has provided a modest tailwind for the CAD against a generally softer USD today. Estimated FV for spot has slipped to 1.3868 this morning." "Narrower spreads should also help reinforce USD selling interest at or a little above the 1.40 area. Note Finance Minister Champagne and BoC Governor Macklem will speak tomorrow afternoon as the G7 meeting winds up.""Spot has found solid resistance above the 1.40 area so far in May and weakness below support at 1.3895/00 today signals the potential for a deeper drop in funds back towards the 1.3750/1.38 range. Trend momentum oscillators are picking up bearishly for the USD again which should grease the path lower for spot and limit USD rebounds. Initial resistance sits at 1.3910/15. Strong resistance is 1.4025 (200-d MA and recent highs)."

14:42 DXY: Bias to sell rallies – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) fell broadly against most currencies. DXY was last at 99.59, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

US Dollar (USD) fell broadly against most currencies. DXY was last at 99.59, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Downside risks are seen"Safe haven including CHF, JPY and gold strengthened more at first in reaction to a CNN report that new intelligence suggests Israel is preparing possible strike on Iranian facilities. But as the session continued, other FX in the region (including THB, MYR, KRW) played catch-up on gains." "We reiterate that Moody’s downgrade comes as a timely reminder that a rise in budget deficit in the absence of fiscal discipline and heightened policy uncertainty (owing to Trump tariffs) is not sustainable and further question USD’s status as a safe haven and primary reserve currency. As doubts over USD continue to grow, a continuation of diversification flows out of US assets, including the USD, as well as more proactive hedging (to reduce USD exposure) can weigh on USD over time, while other currencies benefit." "The thematic of sell USD on rally may persist for longer. Bullish momentum on daily chart is fading while RSI fell. Downside risks are seen. Support at 99.10 levels. Resistance at here at 100.10 (21 DMA), 100.80 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 peak to trough) and 101.40 (50 DMA)."

14:40 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Extends losing streak for third trading day
The USD/CHF pair slides to near 0.8240 during the European trading session, extending the losing streak for the third trading day on Wednesday.

14:36 EUR strengthens as policymakers speak to end of ECB easing cycle – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is up 0.5% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Euro (EUR) is up 0.5% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. EUR/USD is climbing but has not yet broken to fresh highs"The focus on government bond markets and US fiscal developments is likely providing the EUR with some relative strength as market participants also consider the shifting messaging from the ECB. Policymakers remain dovish but appear to be focusing on the end of the easing cycle. Fundamentally, the highlight for EUR this week will be Thursday’s release of preliminary PMI’s, as well as Germany’s IFO business sentiment release.""EUR/USD is climbing but has not yet broken to fresh highs. The RSI is bullish but still well below 70, leaving ample space for further near-term gains. We look to possible near-term resistance around 1.14 ahead of the recent highs in the upper-1.15s. Support is expected closer to 1.11."

14:29 USD/CNH: Likely to trade in a 7.1850/7.2450 range – UOB Group
Downward momentum has largely faded; US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 7.1850/7.2450 range for now against Chinese Yuan (CNH), UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Downward momentum has largely faded; US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 7.1850/7.2450 range for now against Chinese Yuan (CNH), UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Downward momentum has largely faded24-HOUR VIEW: "When USD at 7.2160 in the early Asian session yesterday, we noted that 'there has been a tentative buildup in upward momentum.' We expected USD to 'to edge higher', but we indicated that 'as momentum is not strong, any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistanceat 7.2330.' We also indicated that 'there is another resistance level at 7.2250.' Our view was not wrong, as after rising to 7.2260, USD eased off to end the day largely unchanged at 7.2146 (+0.01%). Upward momentum has faded. Today, we expect range trading, likely between 7.2050 and 7.2250."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After holding a negative USD view since early this month, we revised our view to neutral yesterday (20 May, spot at 7.2160). We indicated that 'downward momentum has largely faded, and instead of weakening, USD is likely to trade in a 7.1850/7.2450 range for now.' Thereis no change in our view."

14:24 Mexican Peso retreats against the US Dollar ahead of Mexican Retail Sales data, US tax vote
The Mexican Peso (MXN) and the US Dollar (USD) are gearing up for a crucial day of economic and fundamental headwinds, which could offer further insight into the current and projected growth outlooks for both economies.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Mexican Peso loses momentum ahead of key fundamental catalysts on Wednesday.Mexico awaits March Retail Sales while the United States prepares for a key vote on President Trump’s proposed tax bill.The USD/MXN eyes psychological resistance at 19.30 after falling to fresh year-to-date lows on Tuesday.The Mexican Peso (MXN) and the US Dollar (USD) are gearing up for a crucial day of economic and fundamental headwinds, which could offer further insight into the current and projected growth outlooks for both economies.As the Mexican Peso continues to trade below a key psychological support-turned-resistance level at 19.30 against the US Dollar, the upcoming release of Mexico’s March Retail Sales data at 12:00 GMT is expected to guide price action for the emerging market (EM) currency, potentially triggering volatility if the data deviates from expectations.Meanwhile, the projected trajectory of the Greenback remains in focus as investors await further commentary from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and the highly anticipated House of Representatives vote on President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” Market participants are closely assessing the short- and long-term implications of the proposed tax legislation, which could significantly influence the fiscal policy outlook and investor sentiment toward the US Dollar.Mexican Peso daily digest: USD/MXN hinges on Mexico’s Retail Sales and Trump’s proposed tax billMexican Retail Sales are expected to increase by 0.1% in March compared to the 0.2% rise in February, with the YoY figures projected to rise 2.2% from -1.1%.As the US Dollar drives broader market direction, shifts in USD sentiment, driven by US fiscal policy, economic data, or Fed signals, tend to dictate the short-term trajectory of USD/MXN, with the Peso reacting accordingly.President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” aims to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and introduce new tax relief measures. Suggested amendments would include State and Local Tax (SALT) deductions, which are expected to triple from $10K to $30K for married couples in the US, reducing the amount of income the government receives per tax year and placing additional pressure on the fiscal budget.To offset the cost of expanded tax cuts, President Trump has proposed reducing expenditure on programs associated with Medicaid, food stamps, and green energy subsidies, while reallocating funds toward defense and immigration enforcement. On the US side, S&P Global will release the preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMIs) for May and Existing Home Sales data for April on Thursday for fresh economic signals.Mexican Peso technical analysis: USD/MXN trades cautiously with trendline resistance intactThe USD/MXN dropped to its lowest level since October on Tuesday, breaking through the previous psychological support level, which has now turned into resistance at 19.30. Currently, prices are below the descending trendline established from the April decline, providing an imminent barrier of resistance at 19.28, a level that is currently being tested by USD/MXN bulls.USD/MXN daily chartThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, slightly recovering to 36.97, is reflecting a slight decline in bearish momentum. Since the 30 mark is considered a potential oversold territory, the bearish trend remains intact, with the next key support level at the round number of 19.20. On the other hand, if USD strength resurges and prices rise above the descending trendline, USD/XN could see a retest of the April low near 19.47, bringing the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) into play at 19.53.
Economic Indicator Retail Sales (MoM) The Retail Sales released by INEGI measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changues reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in retail sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive or bullish for the Mexican peso, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed May 21, 2025 12:00 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 0.1% Previous: 0.2% Source:

14:10 USD/JPY: Bias for USD is on the downside – UOB Group
There is scope for US Dollar (USD) to edge lower to 143.80 vs Japanese Yen (JPY); a sustained break below this level seems unlikely. In the longer run, the bias for USD is on the downside toward 143.80, potentially to 143.30, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

There is scope for US Dollar (USD) to edge lower to 143.80 vs Japanese Yen (JPY); a sustained break below this level seems unlikely. In the longer run, the bias for USD is on the downside toward 143.80, potentially to 143.30, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.USD/JPY can potentially fall to 143.3024-HOUR VIEW: "Subsequent to USD price action on Monday, we highlighted yesterday, Tuesday that 'There has been no further increase in downward momentum, and instead of weakening today, USD is more likely to trade between 144.60 and 145.70.' Our assessment was incorrect. USD rose to 145.51, dropped to 144.07 and then rebounded to close at 144.50, lower by 0.24%. We still do not detect a significant increase in downward momentum. However, there is scope for USD to edge lower to 143.80. A sustained break below this level seems unlikely. The next support at 143.30 is also unlikely to come into view. Resistance is at 144.75, followed by 145.10."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have expected USD to consolidate since last week. In our latest narrative from two days ago (19 Mays, spot at 145.30), we indicated that USD 'remains in a consolidation, but we now tighten the range to 144.50/147.30.' Yesterday, USD dropped below 144.50, reaching a low of 144.07. Despite the decline, there has been no significant increase in downward momentum. That said, the bias for USD is on the downside toward 143.80, potentially reaching 143.30. To maintain the momentum, USD must remain below 145.80."

14:06 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Sets for volatility expansion
The AUD/USD pair moves higher to near 0.6460 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The Aussie pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) continues to underperform its peers on the back of the United States (US) Sovereign Credit rating erosion.

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The Aussie pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) continues to underperform its peers on the back of the United States (US) Sovereign Credit rating erosion. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slides to near 99.50, the lowest level seen in two weeks. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.51% -0.15% -0.59% -0.27% -0.36% -0.29% -0.52% EUR 0.51% 0.36% -0.11% 0.22% 0.18% 0.23% -0.01% GBP 0.15% -0.36% -0.44% -0.12% -0.16% -0.12% -0.38% JPY 0.59% 0.11% 0.44% 0.31% 0.25% 0.31% 0.07% CAD 0.27% -0.22% 0.12% -0.31% -0.08% 0.00% -0.26% AUD 0.36% -0.18% 0.16% -0.25% 0.08% 0.06% -0.19% NZD 0.29% -0.23% 0.12% -0.31% -0.01% -0.06% -0.25% CHF 0.52% 0.00% 0.38% -0.07% 0.26% 0.19% 0.25% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the US long-term issuer rating by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa amid concerns over a large fiscal deficit and hopes of a further increment in the total debt after the clearance of President Donald Trump’s tax-cut bill.However, US President Trump failed to convince Republicans to back the new tax bill in a closed meeting at the Capitol Hill on Tuesday.Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) trades mixed on Wednesday after a 25-basis point (bps) interest rate reduction by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) the previous day. The RBA lowered its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 bps to 3.85%, as expected, amid confidence that inflation will stay lower. The RBA kept the door open for further monetary policy expansion if it continues to see inflation coming down.AUD/USD consolidates in a tight range of 0.6340-0.6515 for over a month. The pair wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.6410, indicating a sideways trend.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00, suggesting a volatility contraction.More upside would appear towards the November 25 high of 0.6550 and the round-level resistance of 0.6600 if the pair if the pair breaks above the May 7 high of 0.6515.On the flip side, a downside move below the March 4 low of 0.6187 will expose it towards the February low of 0.6087, followed by the psychological support of 0.6000.AUD/USD daily chart Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

14:03 Lagarde is positive on the strong Euro – Commerzbank
News of a potential Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities is causing EUR/USD to rise this morning and shows that the euro is currently still favored as a safe haven against the dollar. However, this does not seem to be a problem, at least for the ECB.

News of a potential Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities is causing EUR/USD to rise this morning and shows that the euro is currently still favored as a safe haven against the dollar. However, this does not seem to be a problem, at least for the ECB. The strong euro is an opportunity, as it is a sign that Europe is perceived as a stable economic and political area. This was heard a few days ago from ECB President Christine Lagarde, Commerzbank's FX Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Market may want to trade the Euro even higher"These words must have come as a surprise to quite a few people. Firstly, it is generally unusual for the ECB president to comment on the exchange rate. After all, it is not a target variable of monetary policy. The fact that this is normally strictly adhered to is not least due to the fact that the G7 states have committed themselves to not manipulate their exchange rates, i.e. to leave them to market forces.""Lagarde's comments on the recent appreciation of the euro are positive. Normally, the exact opposite would be expected. The G7 statement above explicitly states that a 'competitive devaluation' should be avoided. For good reason: politicians often prefer a weak currency, especially in difficult economic times. A stronger euro, on the other hand, currently counteracts the ECB's expansionary monetary policy. However, Lagarde's comments could now be interpreted by the market as an invitation to trade the euro even higher.""The fact that the ECB seems to be happy about a strong euro right now smells to me like it wants to please a certain man in the White House. If Lagarde really means it when she says that a strong euro is not a problem for the ECB, she can now prepare herself for the fact that the single currency will be increasingly in demand as a safe haven in the future. Considering the likely disinflationary effect of the US tariffs, this may in fact be a problem."

14:00 South Africa Retail Sales (YoY): 1.5% (March) vs previous 3.9%
South Africa Retail Sales (YoY): 1.5% (March) vs previous 3.9%

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications: -5.1% (May 16) vs previous 1.1%
United States MBA Mortgage Applications: -5.1% (May 16) vs previous 1.1%

13:38 NZD/USD: Outlook remains mixed – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.5905/0.5945 against the US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, outlook remains mixed, but NZD is likely to trade in a tighter range of 0.5835/0.5985, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.5905/0.5945 against the US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, outlook remains mixed, but NZD is likely to trade in a tighter range of 0.5835/0.5985, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.NZD is likely to trade in a tighter range of 0.5835/0.598524-HOUR VIEW: "We expected NZD to 'trade in a 0.5900/0.5950 range' yesterday. NZD then traded sideways between 0.5896 and 0.5932, closing largely unchanged (0.5926, -0.08%). Further sideways trading appears likely, even though the firmer underlying tone suggests a higher range of 0.5905/0.5945."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have expected NZD to trade in a range since the middle of last week. In our most recent narrative from two days ago (19 May, spot at 0.5890), we indicated that 'The outlook remains mixed, but we now expect a tighter range of 0.5835/0.5985.' We continue to hold the same view."

13:33 China Gold imports surge – ING
China's Gold imports surged to an 11-month high last month despite record-high prices, according to customs data, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

China's Gold imports surged to an 11-month high last month despite record-high prices, according to customs data, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.Gold prices are up by more than 20% this year,"Total Gold imports reached 127.5 metric tonnes, a 73% jump from a month earlier, after the People’s Bank of China allocated fresh quotas to some commercial banks in April. Gold prices are up by more than 20% this year, after peaking at a record $3,500/oz in April. Key drivers of the rally are geopolitical risks and central bank buying.""In other metals, China's copper output rose to a monthly record in April. Production of refined copper was up 9% from a year earlier to 1.25 million tonnes. This is despite weak treatment charges. Meanwhile, lead output in April fell 1% year-on-year to 664,000 tonnes, while zinc output rose 0.3% to 576,000 tonnes.""Global aluminium output was unchanged month-on-month in April at 201,100 tonnes per day, according to the International Aluminium Institute. Year-on-year, production rose 2.24%."

13:33 EUR/USD advances further on US credit downgrade, concerns over Trump’s tax bill
EUR/USD jumps to near 1.1350 on Wednesday, extending its winning streak for the third trading day. The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) continues to face a sharp selling pressure amid the United States (US) credit rating erosion.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD rises further to near 1.1350 as the US Dollar remains under pressure due to Moody’s downgrade to the US credit rating.US President Trump fails to convince lawmakers to back tax-cut bill.The Euro gains as Trump confirms Russia-Ukraine truce talks.EUR/USD jumps to near 1.1350 on Wednesday, extending its winning streak for the third trading day. The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) continues to face a sharp selling pressure amid the United States (US) credit rating erosion. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, recoups some of its early losses, but is still 0.3% down to near 99.70.Moody’s downgraded the US Sovereign Credit Rating to Aaa from Aa1 on Friday in the wake of fiscal imbalances and mounting interest rate obligations, a move that added concerns over the US Dollar’s credibility. The credit rating agency also showed solicitude over a likely increase in the current debt pile of $36 trillion, with US President Donald Trump aiming to pass a new tax bill of $3 trillion-$5 trillion.Meanwhile, US President Trump failed to convince Republican lawmakers in a closed-door meeting on Capitol Hill on Tuesday to back the new tax bill through which he aims to fulfill his economic agenda. Republicans disagreed to support the tax-cut bill as they dissented the “increase in limits on deductions for state and local tax payments”, Republican Representative Mike Lawler said, Reuters reported.On the economic front, investors await the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for May, which will be released on Thursday. The PMI data is expected to show that the overall business activity expanded at a steady pace. Investors will pay close attention to comments from employers in the private sector about whether they are opting for capacity expansion or are comfortable with costly imports due to the fallout of the tariff policy by the White House.Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have indicated that the imposition of new economic policies by US President Trump is expected to de-anchor inflation, a scenario that discourages the central bank from bringing interest rates down. On Tuesday, St. Louis Fed Bank President Alberto Musalem said, “If inflation expectations become de-anchored, the Fed policy should prioritize price stability”. Musalem guided that the monetary policy is currently “well-positioned” as the economic policy uncertainty is “unusually high”.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD gains as Euro outperformsSheer strength in the EUR/USD pair is also driven by the Euro’s (EUR) outperformance. The major currency performs strongly against all its major peers on Wednesday as investors become hopeful of a truce between Russia and Ukraine. US President Trump confirmed Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks in the Vatican City through a post on Truth.Social. “Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a ceasefire,” Trump said.A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine will be a favorable scenario for the Euro (EUR) as it will ease supply chain disruptions across Europe. On the monetary policy front, traders remain increasingly confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) will reduce interest rates in the June policy meeting. The reason behind firm ECB dovish bets is guidance from a slew of officials that inflation is on track to return to the central bank’s target of 2%.However, ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said on Tuesday that the medium-term inflation outlook is too uncertain to say whether the ECB needs to cut key rates again in June. "I can't exclude we will decide to have another rate cut in June, but I also can't confirm it," Knot said, according to Reuters.This week, the Spring Forecast report from the European Union’s (EU) executive arm also showed that inflation will return to the 2% target by the middle of the year. The report also showed that price pressures will average at 1.7% in 2026, a scenario that reflects downside risks to inflation.On the economic front, investors await the HCOB PMI data for the Eurozone and its major states, which will be released on Thursday. According to the preliminary estimates, the overall business activity is expected to have grown at a faster pace than what was seen in April.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD climbs to near 1.1350EUR/USD jumps to near 1.1350 on Wednesday, the highest level seen in two weeks. The near-term outlook of the pair is bullish as it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.1240.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among traders.Looking up, the April 28 high of 1.1425 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

12:52 AUD/USD: Likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.6400/0.6450 – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.6400/0.6450 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, outlook is mixed; AUD is likely to trade in a range between 0.6370 and 0.6480, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.6400/0.6450 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, outlook is mixed; AUD is likely to trade in a range between 0.6370 and 0.6480, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Outlook for AUD is mixed24-HOUR VIEW: "Our view for AUD to 'continue to rise' yesterday was incorrect. Instead of rising, AUD plummeted to 0.6392, rebounding to close lower by 0.53% at 0.6424. Despite the drop, there has been no significant increase in downward momentum. Instead of declining further, AUD is more likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.6400/0.6450 today."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Wednesday (14 May), when AUD was at 0.6470, we indicated that 'To continue to rise, AUD must break and hold above 0.6515.' Following the advance in AUD on Monday, we highlighted yesterday, Tuesday (20 May, spot at 0.6450), that 'The renewed upward momentum has increased the odds of AUD breaking above 0.6515.' However, AUD subsequently fell below our ‘strong support’ level of 0.6400 (low of 0.6392), indicating that the chance of an advance has dissipated. The recent choppy price action has resulted in a mixed outlook. For the time being, we expect AUD to trade in a range between 0.6370 and 0.6480."

12:48 Gas: Outages in Norway boost the market – ING
European natural Gas prices had a strong day yesterday, with the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) settling almost 5% higher, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

European natural Gas prices had a strong day yesterday, with the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) settling almost 5% higher, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.Asian LNG prices trade mostly at a premium to European Gas prices"Outages from Norway, a key supplier to the EU, boosted the market. An unplanned outage at the Kollsnes processing plant has been a concern; its duration remains uncertain. Meanwhile, seasonal maintenance is scheduled this week at some Norwegian fields and facilities." "Gas Infrastructure Europe data shows that LNG send-outs in recent days hit their lowest level since February. Asian LNG prices have been trading mostly at a premium to European Gas prices in recent months. This helps explain the lower LNG send-outs."

12:44 USD: Hoping for some positive headlines from Canada – ING
Periods of data silence often serve as a useful gauge of the market’s underlying bias in FX.

Periods of data silence often serve as a useful gauge of the market’s underlying bias in FX. So far this week, the tendency to add to USD short positions has been clear, even though the greenback remains notably undervalued against most G10 currencies when judged by short-term drivers such as rates and equity differentials, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Moves above 100.0-100.5 in DXY may prove short-lived."Expect an intensification of headlines from the G7 meeting running in Canada until tomorrow. There is a low probability-high impact of any suggestions that the G7’s longstanding commitment to allow free floating of exchange rates might be revised to allow dollar weakening. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to hold several bilateral meetings in the coming days, and markets will be watching closely for any signals that currency agreements are on the table. If current speculation proves accurate – and the US is pushing for stronger trading partner currencies – it could not only prompt sharp appreciation in those currencies but also weigh on the dollar more broadly.""Beyond this, other news from the summit is unlikely to hurt the dollar. While a broader push to end the war in Ukraine would have led to some dollar weakness until a few months ago, the greenback is no longer trading as a traditional safe haven. Incidentally, recent developments suggest that the US administration tends to dial down trade tensions after direct talks with other leaders, and any signs of de-escalation should provide some support for the dollar.""Markets' inclination to sell the dollar in the rallies should remain, and moves above 100.0-100.5 in DXY may prove short-lived."

12:42 ECB's Kazaks: ECB will soon reach terminal rate if baseline holds
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Martins Kazaks said on Wednesday, “the ECB will soon reach terminal rate if baseline holds.”

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Martins Kazaks said on Wednesday, “the ECB will soon reach terminal rate if baseline holds.”Additional quotesInterest rate cuts are nearing an end assuming inflation stabilizes at 2% over the coming months.It's important to analise alternative scenarios amid the trade uncertainty.If either inflationary or deflationary risk scenario materialises, monetary policy will react accordingly.

12:37 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bulls have the upper hand near $33.15-$33.20 area, over one-week top
Silver (XAG/USD) reverses an intraday dip to the $33.00 neighborhood and climbs to over a one-week high during the first half of the European session on Wednesday. The white metal currently trades around the $33.15-$33.20 region, up 0.20% for the day, and seems poised to appreciate further.

12:34 GBP/USD: Major resistance at 1.3445 is likely out of reach – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) could edge higher and test 1.3420; the major resistance at 1.3445 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, GBP could continue to rise; based on the current momentum, it might find 1.3445 difficult to break, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Pound Sterling (GBP) could edge higher and test 1.3420; the major resistance at 1.3445 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, GBP could continue to rise; based on the current momentum, it might find 1.3445 difficult to break, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.GBP can continue to rise24-HOUR VIEW: "After GBP rose to 1.3403 and pulled back, we highlighted yesterday that 'further GBP strength seems likely.' However, we indicated that 'any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.3325/1.3410.' GBP subsequently traded between 1.3336 and 1.3395. The price movements have resulted in a slight increase in upward momentum. Today, we expect GBP to edge higher and test 1.3420. The major resistance at 1.3445 is likely out of reach for now. Support is at 1.3375; a breach of 1.3355 would mean that the current mild upward pressure has eased."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our view from neutral to positive yesterday (20 May, spot at 1.3365), indicating that GBP 'could continue to rise.' However, we highlighted that, 'based on the current momentum, any advance might find the late April high of 1.3445 difficult to break.' There is nochange in our view, but the ‘strong support’ has moved higher to 1.3315 from yesterday’s level of 1.3290."

12:32 Germany 10-y Bond Auction increased to 2.66% from previous 2.47%
Germany 10-y Bond Auction increased to 2.66% from previous 2.47%

12:31 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:28 Geopolitical risks grow – ING
The oil market spiked in early morning trading on media reports suggesting that Israel could be planning a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

The oil market spiked in early morning trading on media reports suggesting that Israel could be planning a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.Oil market to price in a larger geopolitical risk premium"The news, based on US intelligence, may signal a significant escalation, prompting the oil market to price in a larger geopolitical risk premium for the region. Such an escalation would not only put Iranian supply at risk, but also in large parts of the broader region." "However, with NYMEX WTI up only a little over 2% at the time of writing, it seems the market is not entirely convinced by these reports -- at least for now. Iran currently produces around 3.35m b/d of crude oil. There are indirect nuclear talks between the US and Iran, which, if successful, could give the market further upside. However, these talks appear to be running out of steam.""Numbers overnight from the American Petroleum Institute show US crude oil inventories increased by 2.5m barrels over the last week. Stock changes in refined products were more constructive, with gasoline and distillate inventories falling 3.2m barrels and 1.4m barrels, respectively. Inventory data continues to suggest a tightening middle distillate market. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data last week already showed that US distillate stocks are at their lowest in 20 years for this time of year."

12:13 AUD/JPY remains steady near 93.00, downside appears due to hawkish tone surrounding BoJ
AUD/JPY remains steady and is holding ground near 92.80 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The currency cross depreciated by more than 0.50% in the previous session following the interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC).

12:01 Gold edges higher, reclaiming $3,300, on rising geopolitical tensions and US fiscal woes
Gold (XAU/USD) breaks higher on Wednesday towards $3,308 at the time of writing, fueled by concerns that tensions in the Middle East might spiral out of control again and US fiscal woes. In late trading on Tuesday, CNN reported that Israel is considering targeting nuclear sites in Iran.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price rallies on the back of headlines that Israel considers striking Iran nuclear facilities. President Trump clashes with Republican members on getting his fiscal package plan through US Congress. Technically, Gold has broken out of its tight range after popping above $3,300.Gold (XAU/USD) breaks higher on Wednesday towards $3,308 at the time of writing, fueled by concerns that tensions in the Middle East might spiral out of control again and US fiscal woes. In late trading on Tuesday, CNN reported that Israel is considering targeting nuclear sites in Iran. While former United States (US) President Joe Biden was able to change Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s mind, US President Donald Trump has seen his diplomatic efforts fall apart, with markets mulling whether Trump is still able to control Netanyahu. In the US, President Trump is facing setbacks at home as well as the administration struggles to get enough support to pass through Congress its tax bil. Frustration arose for Trump at Capitol Hill when speaking with lawmakers who demanded to significantly boost the cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction.Daily digest market movers: Awaiting confirmation from Trump or NetanyahuSafe-haven support for Gold was boosted by a CNN report that indicated Israel may be planning a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. It remains unclear whether a final decision to carry out the attack was made, the report said. Markets will want to look for confirmation from either US or Israel’s leaders. On the back of the phone call between US President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Vatican has proposed to host any event related to Ukraine-Russia peace talks. The Financial Times reports that US lawmakers are pressing Northern Ireland to approve an American-owned Gold mine potentially worth billions of pounds to the local economy, warning that delays to the project risk driving away foreign capital.Gold Price Technical Analysis: Losing gripRecent headlines about the Middle East and the deadlock in the US Congress are another hit for President Trump and his credibility, and to a broader extent, the credibility of the US Dollar and the US economy. Gold benefits from uncertainty, and it could peak back above $3,350 should Israel confirm its plans. On the upside, the R1 resistance at $3,324 is the first level to look out for as it aligns with the high of May 12. The R2 resistance at $3,354 follows not far behind the R1 and could open the door for a return to $3,431, which were the peaks of April 21 and May 6 and 7. Some thick-layered support emerges on the downside in case Gold price declines. On the downside, the daily pivot comes in at $3,263. Next, there is a technical pivotal level at $3,245, and, just below, $3,231 as the intraday S1. XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

11:56 GBP: Don't take inflation spike – ING
UK inflation for April surprised on the hot side this morning, with service CPI spiking from 4.7% to 5.4% against expectations for 4.8%, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

UK inflation for April surprised on the hot side this morning, with service CPI spiking from 4.7% to 5.4% against expectations for 4.8%, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Break below 0.840 remains a tangible possibility"A closer look at the data shows that most of the jump can be traced back to a spike in road tax, which had an outsized effect, along with higher airfares and package holiday prices, both of which were skewed by the timing of Easter and the specific measurement day in April. Meanwhile, key components like rents, catering, and medical care all saw their year-on-year inflation rates continue to ease.""So, there are reasons for the Bank of England to look past this hot CPI print. And while expectations for a June hold are all but cemented, it doesn’t look like enough to dismiss an August cut as the underlying services inflation trend is still improving when discounting tax-related distortions.""The pound is moderately stronger across the board following the CPI release. We have been subscribers of a bearish EUR/GBP stance of late and a more cautious Bank of Englang cutting cycle should keep the rate differential wide and favouring downside explorations in the pair. We think a break below 0.840 remains a tangible possibility in the coming weeks."

11:52 EUR/USD: A sustained advance to 1.1350 is unlikely – UOB Group
EUR could rise above 1.1290; the current momentum suggests any further advance is unlikely to reach 1.1320.

EUR could rise above 1.1290; the current momentum suggests any further advance is unlikely to reach 1.1320. In the longer run, increase in momentum is not sufficient to suggest a sustained advance; EUR must first break decisively above 1.1290, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Below 1.1200, the upside potential to dissipate24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR rose to 1.1288 on Monday and then pulled back. Yesterday, Tuesday, we stated that 'there is a chance for a retest of the 1.1290 level before a more sustained pullback is likely', but we were of the view that 'a clear break above 1.1290 appears unlikely.' We pointed out that 'should EUR break below 1.1195 (minor support is at 1.1215), it would suggest that it is more likely to trade in a range instead of retesting 1.1290.' EUR then dipped to 1.1216, rebounding to reach a high of 1.1285 in the late NY session before closing at 1.1282 (+0.36%). Due to the slight increase in upward momentum, EUR could rise above 1.1290 today. Further advance is not ruled out, but based on the current momentum, EUR is unlikely to reach 1.1320. Support levels have moved higher to 1.1260 and 1.1235." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Following EUR’s rise to 1.1288 two days ago, we indicated in our update yesterday (20 May, spot at 1.1235) that 'The increase in momentum is not sufficient to suggest a sustained advance.' We pointed out that EUR 'must first break decisively above 1.1290 before amove to 1.1330 can be expected.' EUR then rose to 1.1285 and closed at 1.1282. While upward momentum has improved further, we prefer to see a daily close above 1.1290 before anticipating a sustained advance to 1.1350. On the downside, should EUR break below 1.1200 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.1165 yesterday), it would indicate that the upside potential has dissipated."

11:42 EUR: 1.150 looks premature – ING
European currencies in general are enjoying good momentum, with the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona on top of this week’s G10 scorecard, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

European currencies in general are enjoying good momentum, with the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona on top of this week’s G10 scorecard, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.The next key level is 1.150"This is a testament to markets looking both for USD alternatives (CHF) and possibly playing some optimistic views on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal (SEK, NOK). The euro can draw benefits from both of these storylines, while the franc is at risk of a positioning-exacerbated correction should a truce in Ukraine be reached.""On the domestic side, there is still very little driving the euro for now. We have a few European Central Bank speakers to watch, including Chief Economist Philip Lane, but the Governing Council’s stance has been rather lenient towards market pricing of late, and markets should keep cementing expectations for two cuts this year, leaving little room for EUR short-term swap rate mobility.""We think some USD-positive headlines on trade coming from the G7 summit in Canada can put a lid on EUR/USD before the end of the week. The next key level is 1.150, but markets may want to back such a level with softer US data and perhaps a more optimistic story on Russia-Ukraine. For now, it seems a bit premature, and we prefer 1.130 as a near-term target."

11:30 United Kingdom DCLG House Price Index (YoY) came in at 6.4%, above forecasts (5.2%) in March
United Kingdom DCLG House Price Index (YoY) came in at 6.4%, above forecasts (5.2%) in March

11:21 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Remains within a consolidation range of 0.5950/0.5900
NZD/USD is trading around 0.5940 during the European hours on Wednesday. The pair has retraced its recent losses registered in the previous session as a neutral bias persists, suggested by the technical analysis of the daily chart showing the pair is consolidating within a rectangular pattern.

11:00 South Africa Consumer Price Index (MoM) down to 0.3% in April from previous 0.4%
South Africa Consumer Price Index (MoM) down to 0.3% in April from previous 0.4%

11:00 South Africa Consumer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 2.7% to 2.8% in April
South Africa Consumer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 2.7% to 2.8% in April

10:59 Greece Current Account (YoY) fell from previous €-2.49B to €-2.998B in March
Greece Current Account (YoY) fell from previous €-2.49B to €-2.998B in March

10:42 WTI remains above $62.50 following news of Israel planning to hit Iranian nuclear sites
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its gains for the fourth successive session, trading around $62.70 per barrel during the early European hours on Wednesday.

10:35 Pound Sterling hits over three-year high against USD after hot UK CPI data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) attracts bids against its major peers on Wednesday, hitting a fresh three-year high near 1.3470 against the US Dollar (USD).

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The British currency extends gains after the release of the hotter-than-expected United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, a major trigger that will discourage the Bank of England (BoE) from supporting an expansionary monetary policy stance further.As measured by the CPI, the UK headline inflation rose at a robust pace of 3.5% on year, compared to estimates of 3.3% and the March reading of 2.6%. This is the highest level seen since November 2023. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile components of food, energy, alcohol and tobacco – grew by 3.8%, faster than expectations of 3.6% and the prior release of 3.4%. Month-on-month headline inflation rose strongly by 1.2%, compared to estimates of 1.1% and the former reading of 0.3%.The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a notable increase in prices of housing and household services, transportation, and recreation and culture, which led to a sharp surge in inflationary pressures.Inflation in the services sector, which is closely tracked by BoE officials, accelerated to 5.4% from 4.7% in March. Ballooning inflationary pressures are expected to force BoE policymakers to remove their “gradual and cautious” monetary expansion guidance from their next policy announcement, which is scheduled in June, and will pressure traders to pare dovish bets.“I am disappointed with the inflation figures,” Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said.On Tuesday, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill warned of caution in interest rate cuts due to “potential inflationary impact of structural changes in price and wage setting behaviour, following the experience of prolonged, well above-target inflation in recent years”, Bloomberg reported.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling refreshes three-year high against US DollarThe Pound Sterling posts a fresh three-year high around 1.3470 against the US Dollar during European trading hours on Wednesday after the release of the hot UK CPI report. Another reason behind sheer strength in the GBP/USD pair is substantial weakness in the US Dollar on the back of Moody’s downgrade to the United States (US) Sovereign Credit rating, Federal Reserve’s (Fed) concerns over economic outlook in the wake of new economic policies, and US President Donald Trump failing to convince lawmakers to back tax bill.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slumps to near 99.45, the lowest level seen in two weeks.Moody’s one-notch downgrade in the US long-term issuer rating to Aa1 from Aaa, which came on the back of mounting fiscal imbalances and an increase in interest obligations for the US administration due to a $36 trillion debt pile, continues to batter the US Dollar. Additionally, fears of a further increment in the country’s debt burden, with Trump’s new tax bill aiming to increase the administration’s liability by $3 trillion-$5 trillion, are also dampening the credibility of the US Dollar.On Tuesday, Republican lawmakers dissented to back the new tax bill, citing that it aims to raise limits on deductions for state and local tax payments, according to a Republican Representative Mike Lawler, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, Democrats stated that the bill would lead to cracks in social programs and would favor the wealthy. These comments from Democrats appeared to have come on the back of tightening Medicaid norms in the tax bill.Meanwhile, Fed officials have warned of stagflation due to the fallout of new economic policies by US President Trump. Policymakers have argued in favor of maintaining interest rates at their current levels as tariffs could lead to a sharp increase in inflation.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling jumps above 1.3450The Pound Sterling climbs to near 1.3470 against the US Dollar on Wednesday, the highest level seen in over three years. The overall trend of the GBP/USD pair was already bullish as all short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks above 60.00, suggesting a fresh bullish momentum if the RSI holds above that level.On the upside, the 13 January 2022 high of 1.3750 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the 20-day EMA near 1.3300 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:33 Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate meets expectations (5.5%)
Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate meets expectations (5.5%)

09:58 Forex Today: Pound Sterling rises on hot UK inflation, US Dollar extends slide
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, May 21:

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The economic calendar will not feature high-tier data releases midweek, allowing investors to remain focused on geopolitics and comments from central bankers. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.36% -1.27% -1.22% -0.64% -0.80% -1.14% -1.78% EUR 1.36% 0.07% 0.20% 0.79% 0.70% 0.29% -0.41% GBP 1.27% -0.07% -0.17% 0.71% 0.62% 0.21% -0.49% JPY 1.22% -0.20% 0.17% 0.59% 0.59% 0.28% -0.51% CAD 0.64% -0.79% -0.71% -0.59% -0.14% -0.50% -1.20% AUD 0.80% -0.70% -0.62% -0.59% 0.14% -0.41% -1.09% NZD 1.14% -0.29% -0.21% -0.28% 0.50% 0.41% -0.70% CHF 1.78% 0.41% 0.49% 0.51% 1.20% 1.09% 0.70% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported in the European morning that annual inflation in the UK, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index, climbed to 3.5% in April from 2.6% in March. This reading came in above the market expectation of 3.3%. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 1.2% after increasing by 0.3% previously. Finally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 3.8% on a yearly basis, surpassing analysts' estimate of 3.6%. GBP/USD gathered bullish momentum after hot UK inflation data and advanced to its highest level since February 2022 above 1.3450. China’s Commerce Ministry said early Wednesday that the US' measures on China’s advanced chips are "typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism," adding that the US violates international law by abusing export controls to contain and suppress China. Meanwhile, House Republicans are struggling to pass President Donald Trump's tax bill, which could add roughly $3.8 trillion to the national debt, according to an analysis released Tuesday by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The USD Index stays under bearish pressure on Wednesday and trades near 99.50, losing about 0.5% on the day, while US stock index futures fall between 0.4% and 0.6% after Wall Street's main indexes closed in negative territory on Tuesday.EUR/USD builds on its weekly gains and rises toward 1.1350 in the early European session. The European Central Bank (ECB) will publish its Financial Stability Review later in the day.The data from Japan showed in the early Asian session that Exports rose by 2% on a yearly basis in April, as expected. In the same period, Imports declined by 2.2%. USD/JPY stays on the back foot on Wednesday and declines toward 143.50. Gold benefited from the risk-averse market atmosphere and gained nearly 2% on Tuesday. XAU/USD preserves its bullish momentum and trades comfortably above $3,300, rising about 1% on the day.USD/CAD continues to stretch lower and trades below 1.3900 after closing the first two days of the week in the red. Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday that the annual CPI inflation softened to 1.7% in April from 2.3% in March. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

09:56 GBP/JPY jumps back above 193.00 on hotter UK CPI print, lacks follow-through amid stronger JPY
The GBP/JPY cross trims a part of its modest intraday losses following the release of hotter-than-expected UK consumer inflation figures, though it lacks follow-through buying.

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Spot prices currently trade around the 193.20 region, down over 0.15% for the day amid a broadly stronger Japanese Yen (JPY).Data released by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) earlier this Wednesday showed that the headline annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped from the 2.6% seen in the prior month to 3.5% in April, the highest level in over a year. Adding to this, the annual core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 3.8% compared to 3.4% in March. The readings were well above consensus estimates and the Bank of England's (BoE) 2.0% medium-term target, forcing investors to scale back their expectations for more rate cuts in 2025 and boosting the British Pound (GBP). Traders, however, are still pricing in the possibility that the UK central bank will lower borrowing costs at least once by the year-end. This marks a sharp divergence in comparison to the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again amid fears of broader and more entrenched price increases in Japan. Furthermore, reviving safe-haven demand, bolstered by renewed US-China trade tensions and persistent geopolitical risks, benefits the JPY. This, in turn, keeps a lid on the GBP/JPY pair's intraday recovery of around 40 pips from the 192.85-192.80 region.Nevertheless, the mixed fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from over a four-month high touched last week. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Wed May 21, 2025 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 3.5% Consensus: 3.3% Previous: 2.6% Source: Office for National Statistics Why it matters to traders? The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.

09:35 EUR/GBP trims recent gains below 0.8450 after hotter UK CPI data
The EUR/GBP cross trims recent gains near 0.8435 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges slightly higher against the Euro (EUR) after the release of UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for April.

09:05 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Wednesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $62.87 per barrel, up from Tuesday’s close at $62.16.

09:05 USD/CAD weakens further below 1.3900 amid bearish USD, rising Oil prices
The USD/CAD pair extends the previous day's breakdown momentum below a one-week-old trading range and attracts sellers for the third successive day on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD drifts lower for the third straight day amid a combination of negative factors.Rising Crude Oil prices and reduced bets for a June BoC rate cut underpin the Loonie.Fed rate cut bets and US fiscal concerns weigh on the USD, and contribute to the slide.The USD/CAD pair extends the previous day's breakdown momentum below a one-week-old trading range and attracts sellers for the third successive day on Wednesday. This also marks the fourth day of a negative move in the previous four and drags spot prices below the 1.3900 mark, or a nearly two-week low during the Asian session.Crude Oil prices shot to a nearly one-month high amid reports that Israel is preparing a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, which raises concerns about supply disruption from the Middle East region. Moreover, signs of faltering US-Iran nuclear talks lend support to the black liquid, which, in turn, is seen underpinning the commodity-linked Loonie. Moreover, hotter-than-expected Canadian core inflation figures released on Tuesday dampened hopes for a Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cut in June and provided an additional boost to the Canadian Dollar (CAD). This, along with the prevalent US Dollar (USD) selling bias, exerts additional downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, drops to a two-week low amid concerns about the US fiscal health and bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs further in 2025. Moreover, Fed officials on Tuesday raised concerns over the US economic outlook amid the uncertainty over the Trump administration's policies. Apart from this, renewed US-China trade tensions weigh on the buck.The USD/CAD pair's downfall could further be attributed to some technical selling following a breakdown below the lower boundary of a short-term trading range. This, along with the aforementioned fundamental backdrop, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair remains to the downside and supports prospects for deeper losses. In the absence of any relevant economic data on Wednesday, speeches from influential FOMC members will drive the USD demand. Apart from this, Oil price dynamics should provide some impetus to spot prices. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

09:02 United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (3.3%) in April: Actual (3.5%)
United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (3.3%) in April: Actual (3.5%)

09:01 United Kingdom Retail Price Index (YoY) came in at 4.5%, above forecasts (4.2%) in April
United Kingdom Retail Price Index (YoY) came in at 4.5%, above forecasts (4.2%) in April

09:01 Sweden Capacity Utilization fell from previous 0.7% to 0.5% in 1Q
Sweden Capacity Utilization fell from previous 0.7% to 0.5% in 1Q

09:01 United Kingdom Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 3.8%, above forecasts (3.6%) in April
United Kingdom Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 3.8%, above forecasts (3.6%) in April

09:01 United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (1.1%) in April: Actual (1.2%)
United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (1.1%) in April: Actual (1.2%)

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (1.5%) in April: Actual (1.7%)
United Kingdom Retail Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (1.5%) in April: Actual (1.7%)

08:39 FX option expiries for May 21 NY cut
FX option expiries for May 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for May 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1250 2b1.1270 1b1.1305 1.2b1.1390 1.8b1.1400 1bGBP/USD: GBP amounts1.3265 459m1.3400 537m1.3500 433mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 142.00 878m144.50 940mUSD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8250 1.1b0.8300 545mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6380 321m0.6400 303mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4270 1.1bNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.5875 349m

08:13 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bullish outlook remains in play above 1.1300
The EUR/USD pair gathers strength to near 1.1330 during the early European session on Wednesday, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

08:04 USD/CHF drops to two-week low, eyes 0.8200 amid sustained USD selling bias
The USD/CHF pair continues to lose ground for the third successive day and drops to a two-week low, around the 0.8220-0.8215 region during the Asian session on Wednesday. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside.

07:55 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Rises toward highs since February 2022 near 1.3450
The GBP/USD pair extends its winning streak for the third successive session, trading around 1.3430 during Wednesday's Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a persistent bullish bias as the pair remains within an ascending channel pattern.

07:38 Gold price retakes $3,300 amid a broadly weaker USD and reviving safe-haven demand
Gold price (XAU/USD) prolongs its weekly uptrend for the third straight day and climbs further beyond the $3,300 mark, to a one-and-a-half-week high during the Asian session on Wednesday.

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Gold price (XAU/USD) prolongs its weekly uptrend for the third straight day and climbs further beyond the $3,300 mark, to a one-and-a-half-week high during the Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) selling bias remains unabated in the wake of US fiscal concerns, which led to a downgrade of the US government's sovereign credit rating last Friday. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the commodity. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials adopted a cautious tone on the US economic outlook. Adding to this, the growing market conviction that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs further this year drags the USD to a nearly two-week low and further the non-yielding Gold price. Moreover, renewed US-China trade tensions support prospects for a further near-term appreciating move for the safe-haven precious metal. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is underpinned by a combination of factors; seems poised to appreciate furtherUS President Donald Trump pushes the House GOP to pass his sweeping tax bill, which could add $3 trillion to $5 trillion to the country’s already hefty debt pile. This comes after Moody’s downgraded the US government’s credit rating last Friday, citing escalating deficits, which continue to weigh on the US Dollar and lift the Gold price above the $3,300 mark on Wednesday. Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday raised concerns around the US economic outlook amid the uncertainty tied to Trump’s trade policies. In fact, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack sees rising odds of a stagflation scenario and said that the uncertainty over US government trade policies makes it increasingly difficult for policymakers to manage the economy. Separately, St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem noted that businesses and households are holding back from decisions amid uncertainty, which could affect the economic outlook. Adding to this, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warned that the US economy is going to see a slowdown in activity, and how consumers will respond to another round of inflation. Data released last week pointed to signs of easing inflation, while the disappointing US monthly Retail Sales figure increased the likelihood of several quarters of sluggish growth. This should allow the Fed to stick to its policy easing bias. Moreover, traders are currently pricing in the possibility of at least two 25-basis-point rate reductions by the end of this year. China accused the US of abusing export control measures and said that the Trump administration is violating Geneva trade agreements. In fact, the US issued guidance warning companies not to use Huawei's Ascend AI chips. China’s Commerce Ministry said this Wednesday that US measures on advanced chips are ‘typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism.’ CNN, citing several US officials aware of the developments, reported on Tuesday that fresh intelligence gathered by the US indicates that Israel is preparing for potential strikes on Iran's nuclear sites. This keeps geopolitical risks in play, which should provide an additional boost to the XAU/USD pair and support prospects for a further near-term appreciating move.Gold price could aim to test the next relevant hurdle near the $3,360-3,365 area before aiming to reclaim the $3,400 markFrom a technical perspective, the overnight sustained breakout above the $3,250-3,260 region, which coincided with the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. A subsequent move beyond the $3,300 mark and positive oscillators on hourly/daily charts validate the near-term constructive outlook for the Gold price. Hence, some follow-through strength towards testing the next relevant hurdle, around the $3,360-3,365 horizontal zone, looks like a distinct possibility. The momentum could extend further and allow the XAU/USD pair to reclaim the $3,400 round figure. On the flip side, weakness below the Asian session low, around the $3,285 region, is more likely to attract fresh buyers and remain limited near the $3,260-3,250 resistance-turned-support. A convincing break below the latter, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the $3,200 mark. This is closely followed by the $3,178-3,177 support, below which the XAU/USD could accelerate the fall towards last week's swing low, around the $3,120 area, or the lower level since April 10, en route to the $3,100 mark. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 9,090.18 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 9,055.95 it cost on Tuesday. The price for Gold increased to INR 106,026.10 per tola from INR 105,626.90 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,090.18 10 Grams 90,901.81 Tola 106,026.10 Troy Ounce 282,738.60 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Gold daily market movers: Rally extends amid heightened US yields and hawkish Fed commentary US Treasury bond yields have risen due to Moody’s actions with the US 10-year Treasury note yield at around 4.477%, up almost three basis points (bps). Meanwhile, US real yields are also up three bps at 2.117%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US currency against six others, falls 0.21% to 100.17. Although it remains off daily lows of 100.06, traders seeking safety have moved to the yellow metal. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said that if inflation expectations become de-anchored, the Fed's policy should be centered on price stability. He said that there is uncertainty if tariffs would have a temporary or persistent effect on inflation. Last week, Moody’s, the international rating agency, downgraded the US government rating from AAA to Aa1. They highlighted that more than a decade of inaction by successive US administrations and Congress has contributed to the country’s worsening fiscal position, raising concerns over long-term debt sustainability. Given the backdrop, major banks are convinced that the yellow metal will continue to rally heading into next year. Goldman Sachs forecasts Bullion to average $3,700 an ounce by year-end, then reach $4,000 by mid-2026. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

06:10 USD/INR strengthens on US Dollar bids from foreign banks
The Indian Rupee (INR) edges lower on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) bids from foreign banks, likely on behalf of custodial clients, and the weaker Chinese Yuan weigh on the Indian currency. Additionally, a decline in local equities and a rise in crude oil prices also undermine the INR.

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Traders brace for the Fed’s Barkin speech later on Wednesday.The Indian Rupee (INR) edges lower on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) bids from foreign banks, likely on behalf of custodial clients, and the weaker Chinese Yuan weigh on the Indian currency. Additionally, a decline in local equities and a rise in crude oil prices also undermine the INR. Nonetheless, a multi-phase trade deal between the US and India might help limit the local currency’s losses. According to Bloomberg, India is discussing a US trade deal structured in three tranches and expects to reach an interim agreement before July, when US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are set to kick in. Traders will monitor the speech from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Thomas I. Barkin later on Wednesday. On Thursday, the preliminary reading of India's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May will be released. Indian Rupee softens as corporate seasonal demand for US Dollar remains high“The Indian rupee opened a tad weaker and will remain in a range of 85.25/75 for the day as there is no fresh market indicator for it to change course,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday that it would take time for the Fed to fully understand the economic effects of Trump’s new tariff policy. Because of that prolonged process, he only saw room for one interest rate cut this year. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that current policy remains appropriate if trade tensions are durably de-escalated.Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack noted that tremendous uncertainty weighs on economic activity. Hammack sees rising odds of a stagflation scenario, where low growth is coupled with high inflation.USD/INR maintains a bearish tone under the 100-day EMAThe Indian Rupee weakens on the day. The USD/INR pair keeps the bearish vibe on the daily timeframe, with the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Further consolidation or temporary recovery cannot be ruled out as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline, suggesting neutral momentum in the near term.The initial support level for USD/INR is seen at 85.34, the low of May 19. Sustained bearish pressure that could extend the drop to 85.00, the psychological level, followed by 84.61, the low of May 12. On the flip side, the first upside barrier is located ata the 100-day EMA at 85.60. Green candlesticks busting above the mentioned level could potentially lift the pair back up to the next resistance at the 85.90-86.00 zone, which marks both the upper boundary of the trend channel and a round figure. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

06:08 US Dollar Index falls toward 99.50 as Fed officials express economic concerns
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is extending its losses for the third successive session and trading lower at around 99.70 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

05:50 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD consolidates around $33.00; seems poised to climb further
Silver (XAG/USD) retreats slightly following an Asian session uptick to the $33.20 area, or over a one-week high, and erodes a part of the previous day's strong move up.

05:47 Canadian FinMin: G7 weighs joint tariffs on low-value Chinese imports
Canada’s Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne confirmed on Wednesday that Group of Seven (G7) nations are mulling over coordinated efforts to impose levies on low-value Chinese imports.

05:28 Japanese Yen advances to two-week high against a broadly weaker USD
The Japanese Yen (JPY) touched a fresh two-week high against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Wednesday despite the disappointing release of Japan's trade balance data.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen prolongs its uptrend against the USD amid the divergent BoJ-Fed expectations.Hopes for an eventual US-Japan trade deal further benefit the JPY and contribute to the move up.The fundamental backdrop favors the JPY bulls and backs prospects for a further USD/JPY slide.The Japanese Yen (JPY) touched a fresh two-week high against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Wednesday despite the disappointing release of Japan's trade balance data. Investors now seem convinced that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again in 2025 amid fears of broader and more entrenched price increases in Japan. The expectations were reaffirmed by hawkish comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida earlier this week, which continue to benefit the JPY. Adding to this, hopes for an eventual US-Japan trade deal offset a generally positive risk tone and did little to dent the prevalent bullish sentiment surrounding the safe-haven JPY. The USD, on the other hand, remains depressed amid the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs further and a surprise downgrade of the US government's sovereign credit rating. This contributes to the USD/JPY pair's decline to the 144.00 mark and supports prospects for a further near-term depreciating move.Japanese Yen bulls shrug off disappointing trade data amid BoJ rate hike betsGovernment data released earlier this Wednesday showed that Japan’s trade balance unexpectedly shrank to a deficit of ¥115.8 billion in April compared to a surplus of ¥559.4 billion in the prior month. Japanese imports shrank at a slower-than-expected pace as a bumper springtime hike in wages boosted private consumption, while export growth slowed sharply on the back of softer US demand following US President Donald Trump's higher import tariffs.Japanese and US government officials are set to hold a third round of high-level trade talks in Washington this week. Japan's trade minister Ryosei Akazawa is expected to attend the ministerial-level talks with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is also expected to take part in the negotiations. US officials are reportedly pressing Japan for an early conclusion to the talks, suggesting that a deal could be reached sooner. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida told parliament earlier this week that Japan's underlying inflation is likely to re-accelerate after a period of slowdown and will stay around the 2% target. The BoJ will continue to raise interest rates if the economy and prices improve as projected, Uchida added further. Moreover, the BoJ's Summary of Opinions revealed last week that policymakers haven't given up on hiking interest rates further.In contrast, traders ramped up their bets for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025 following last week's softer-than-expected release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). Moreover, the disappointing US monthly Retail Sales data increased the likelihood of several quarters of sluggish growth and should allow the Fed to stick to its policy easing bias, which, in turn, drags the US Dollar to a nearly two-week low. Fed officials took the opportunity to express concern about the current state of the US economy during a panel discussion on Tuesday. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that the net impact of the Trump administration's trade, immigration, and other policies is unknown. Adding to this, the Cleveland Fed Bank President said that the sentiment about the economy is concerning, and it will take longer to observe how business decisions are impacted by trade policy.China on Monday accused the US of undermining the preliminary trade agreement after the latter issued an industry warning against using Chinese chips that singled out Huawei. Adding to this, China’s Commerce Ministry said this Wednesday that US measures on advanced chips are ‘typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism.’ Furthermore, US chip measures seriously undermine the stability of the global semiconductor industry chain and supply chain.USD/JPY seems vulnerable to decline further; break below 144.30-144.20 confluence in playFrom a technical perspective, the intraday slide drags the USD/JPY pair below the 144.30-144.20 confluence – comprising the 50% retracement level of the April-May rally and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction and underpin a further near-term depreciating move. Some follow-through selling and acceptance below the 144.00 mark will reaffirm the bearish outlook and drag the currency pair to the 143.65-143.60 horizontal support zone en route to the 143.25 region, or the 61.8% Fibonacci (Fibo.) retracement level. On the flip side, the Asian session peak, around the 144.55 zone, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which the USD/JPY pair could aim to reclaim the 145.00 psychological mark. Any subsequent move up, however, might still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the 145.35-145.40 region, or the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level. The latter should act as a pivotal point, and a sustained move beyond might shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

05:11 Mexican Economy Minister Ebrard: Mexico’s US auto exports to benefit from tariff discounts
Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said late Tuesday that cars assembled in Mexico and exported to the United States (US) will be levied an average tariff of 15%, not 25%, clarifying that they will avail additional discounts that local products benefit from.

04:49 NZD/USD holds above 0.5900 on weaker US Dollar, renewed US-China tensions might cap its upside
The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers to around 0.5935 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar (USD). The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Thomas I. Barkin is scheduled to speak later on Wednesday.

04:38 Australian Dollar advances as US Dollar receives downward pressure from cautious Fedspeak
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, rebounding after falling more than 0.50% in the previous session.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar strengthens as the US Dollar weakens amid concerns over the economic outlook and declining business sentiment.Federal Reserve officials highlighted a drop in both business and consumer confidence, partly blaming shifts in US trade policy.RBA’s Bullock described the rate cut as a proactive step aimed at bolstering confidence and aligning with the current economic landscape.The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, rebounding after falling more than 0.50% in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair gains ground as the US Dollar extends its decline, pressured by cautious remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials regarding the economic outlook and business sentiment.Speaking at a panel discussion hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack expressed growing concerns about the US economy. While key economic indicators remain solid, both officials pointed to deteriorating business and consumer confidence, attributing part of the sentiment shift to US trade policy.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), at its May policy meeting, lowered its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points, from 4.1% to 3.85% — a move widely anticipated by markets. In a press conference following the decision, RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized the importance of curbing inflation and reaffirmed confidence in the central bank’s strategy. Bullock characterized the rate cut as a proactive, confidence-boosting measure appropriate for current economic conditions. She also noted the Board’s readiness to take further steps if needed, hinting at the possibility of future adjustments.Political instability in Australia also weighed on the AUD. The opposition coalition fractured after the National Party withdrew from its alliance with the Liberal Party. Meanwhile, the ruling Labor Party capitalized on the turmoil, returning to power with a stronger and broader mandate.Australian Dollar appreciates as US Dollar weakens on economic concernsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is losing ground for the third successive session and trading lower at around 99.90 at the time of writing.On Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expanded on remarks he made the previous day. Bostic warned that the inconsistent and shifting tariff policies introduced during the Trump administration risk disrupting US trade logistics, which are heavily dependent on large-scale imports to satisfy domestic demand.The US Dollar struggles in the wake of Moody’s Ratings downgrading the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. This move aligns with similar downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011. Moody’s now projects US federal debt to climb to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the budget deficit expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP. This deterioration is attributed to rising debt-servicing costs, expanding entitlement programs, and falling tax revenues.Economic data released last week pointed to easing inflation, as both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) signaled a deceleration in price pressures. This has heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement additional rate cuts in 2025, contributing to further weakness in the US Dollar. Additionally, disappointing US Retail Sales figures have deepened concerns over an extended period of sluggish economic growth.The PBoC announced a reduction in its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) on Tuesday. The one-year LPR was lowered from 3.10% to 3.00%, while the five-year LPR was reduced from 3.60% to 3.50%.The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Monday that China’s Retail Sales rose by 5.1% year-over-year (YoY) in April, falling short of the 5.5% forecast and down from 5.9% in March. Industrial Production grew by 6.1% YoY during the same period, beating the expected 5.5% but slowing from the previous 7.7% growth.The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar gained support from renewed optimism surrounding a 90-day US-China trade truce and hopes for further trade deals with other countries. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN on Sunday that President Donald Trump intends to implement tariffs at previously threatened levels on trading partners that do not engage in negotiations “in good faith.”According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), employment surged by 89,000 in April, significantly higher than the 36,400 increase in March and far above the forecasted 20,000. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.1%.Australian Dollar remains below 0.6450, support appears at nine-day EMAThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6450 on Wednesday, with daily technical indicators reflecting a bullish tone. The pair continues to trade above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the neutral 50 level—both signals supporting sustained upward momentum.On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the six-month high of 0.6515, recorded on December 2, 2024. A decisive break above this barrier could pave the way for a test of the seven-month high at 0.6687, which was reached in November 2024.Initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 0.6426, followed by the 50-day EMA near 0.6365. A firm move below these levels would undermine the short- to medium-term bullish outlook, possibly opening the path toward the March 2020 low of 0.5914.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.04% -0.06% -0.12% -0.04% -0.12% -0.13% -0.22% EUR 0.04% -0.02% -0.11% -0.02% -0.06% -0.09% -0.18% GBP 0.06% 0.02% -0.06% 0.02% -0.03% -0.06% -0.18% JPY 0.12% 0.11% 0.06% 0.08% 0.00% -0.01% -0.10% CAD 0.04% 0.02% -0.02% -0.08% -0.08% -0.08% -0.20% AUD 0.12% 0.06% 0.03% -0.01% 0.08% -0.02% -0.11% NZD 0.13% 0.09% 0.06% 0.01% 0.08% 0.02% -0.11% CHF 0.22% 0.18% 0.18% 0.10% 0.20% 0.11% 0.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

04:18 China's Commerce Ministry says US measures on Chinese chips are bullying, protectionist
China’s Commerce Ministry said early Wednesday that US measures on China’s advanced chips are ‘typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism.’ Chinese authorities urged the US to immediately correct its erroneous practices.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1937 vs. 7.1931 previous
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1937 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1931 and 7.2133 Reuters estimate.

03:33 WTI climbs to near $63.00 on report that Israel is preparing to strike Iran
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $62.95 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI price surges after CNN reported that US intelligence suggests Israel is making preparations to possibly strike Iranian nuclear facilities.

02:57 EUR/USD climbs on Greenback weakness, but key technical barriers remain in place
EUR/USD caught a bounce for a second day in a row on Tuesday, bolstering the pair back toward the 1.1300 handle. Despite a near-term rise in bullish momentum bolstering the Fiber, EUR/USD remains well back from recent multi-year highs near 1.1575.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD rose on Tuesday, but remains capped by 1.1300.Despite a near-term recovery, the Euro remains down from recent highs against the Greenback.US PMI figures will be the key data release this week.EUR/USD caught a bounce for a second day in a row on Tuesday, bolstering the pair back toward the 1.1300 handle. Despite a near-term rise in bullish momentum bolstering the Fiber, EUR/USD remains well back from recent multi-year highs near 1.1575. The pair has found a firm technical floor from key moving averages, and overall market sentiment remains hopeful that traders will be able to keep finding reasons to hit the buy button.Tariffs dominate market perception, but US data looms aheadEuropean policymakers are currently wrapped up in G7 meetings, minimizing the trickle of noteworthy headlines from key EU decision-makers. Overall market sentiment remains entirely hinged on trade headlines from the US, with investors hoping that deals will be struck with the Trump administration that will encourage President Donald Trump and his staffers to take the tariff gun away from their own economy’s head. Despite the overall upbeat tone in global markets, the steady drift into the unknown is beginning to limit bullish sentiment. The Trump administration is rapidly approaching its own self-imposed 90-day deadline on its own “reciprocal tariffs” package. While some potential trade deals have been announced, nothing concrete has been forthcoming.It will be a limited data docket on Wednesday, with only mid-tier data on the offering on both sides of the Pacific. US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures are expected to come in mixed on Thursday. US Manufacturing PMI in May is expected to tick down to 50.1 from 50.2, while the Services component is seen holding flat at 50.8.EUR/USD price forecastFiber rose four-tenths of one percent against the Greenback on Tuesday, pushing EUR/USD within touch range of the 1.1300 handle. The pair is still riding out a halting but determined bullish bounce from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just below 1.1100, but bullish price momentum still has a long way to go to reclaim multi-year highs north of 1.1500 posted in April.EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:50 Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total came in at ¥-115.8B, below expectations (¥227.1B) in April
Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total came in at ¥-115.8B, below expectations (¥227.1B) in April

02:50 Japan Imports (YoY) came in at -2.2%, above forecasts (-4.5%) in April
Japan Imports (YoY) came in at -2.2%, above forecasts (-4.5%) in April

02:50 Japan Exports (YoY) meets forecasts (2%) in April
Japan Exports (YoY) meets forecasts (2%) in April

02:42 New intelligence suggests Israel is preparing possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities - CNN
The United States (US) has obtained new intelligence suggesting that Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, even as US President Donald Trump has been pursuing a diplomatic deal with Tehran, multiple US officials familiar with the latest intelligence told CNN.

02:35 Fed policymakers express concerns over economic and business sentiment
During a discussion panel hosted by the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta, the San Francisco and Cleveland Fed Bank Presidents Mary C. Daly and Beth Hammack both took the opportunity to express concern about the current state of the US economy.

02:14 USD/CAD softens to near 1.3900 on caution over US economy
The USD/CAD pair extended its decline to near 1.3910 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) amid renewed concerns over the US economy. Traders will keep an eye on the speech from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Thomas I.

02:14 AUD/USD hovers above 0.6400 post RBA rate cut, eyes on US Trump tax bill approval
The Australian Dollar (AUD) begins the Asian session virtually unchanged against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, following a 0.49% loss in the previous session as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reduced interest rates. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6420 flat.

01:51 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rallies above $33.00 as USD slips
Silver price soared on Tuesday, climbing past the $33.00 mark per troy ounce as the US Dollar weakened across the board.

01:46 New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) came in at $1426M, above expectations ($500M) in April
New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) came in at $1426M, above expectations ($500M) in April

01:46 New Zealand Imports: $6.42B (April) vs previous $6.62B
New Zealand Imports: $6.42B (April) vs previous $6.62B

01:45 New Zealand Exports climbed from previous $7.59B to $7.84B in April
New Zealand Exports climbed from previous $7.59B to $7.84B in April

01:45 New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (YoY) increased to $-4.81B in April from previous $-6.13B
New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (YoY) increased to $-4.81B in April from previous $-6.13B

01:22 GBP/USD drifts higher ahead of late-week run of UK and US data
GBP/USD rose slightly on Tuesday, climbing toward (but still not able to capture) the 1.3400 handle.

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Forex News Timeline

23:01 EUR/USD rallies for third day as US debt fears grow ahead of US budget vote EUR/USD extended its rally for the third consecutive day on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) continued to face headwinds following the credit downgrade of the United States last Friday.

22:59 President Trump's budget bill headed for vote in US Congress The United States (US) House of Representatives is poised to begin casting votes on the Republican party's tax and budget bill that is front-loaded with many of President Donald Trump's wishlist items.

22:56 WTI Crude Oil faces major resistance at $62.00 Oil prices have been under persistent pressure since the inauguration of US President Donald Trump in January, weighed down by a combination of recession fears, rising global supply, and a softer US Dollar.

22:44 Canadian Dollar rises as Greenback withers on Wednesday The Canadian Dollar (CAD) caught a firm bid on Wednesday, climbing one-half of one percent during the midweek market session.

22:14 Forex Today: It’s PMI-day!!! The US Dollar (USD) maintained its weekly leg lower well in place weakening to new two-week lows on the back of rising concerns over the US fiscal position in light of President Trump’s tax bill and worries over the performance of the US economy.

20:54 Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbles on Wednesday, shedding 800 points The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) recoiled on Wednesday, tumbling 800 and testing below 42,000 after demand for United States (US) Treasuries declined.

20:35 United States 20-Year Bond Auction climbed from previous 4.81% to 5.047% United States 20-Year Bond Auction climbed from previous 4.81% to 5.047%

18:43 NZD/USD climbs as record US trade surplus boosts Kiwi confidence The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with the release of a record trade surplus in April highlighting the largest monthly goods surplus on record with the United States.

17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change registered at 1.328M above expectations (-1.85M) in May 16 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change registered at 1.328M above expectations (-1.85M) in May 16

17:03 German Chancellor Merz: There are signs US could be interested in deal with EU German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Wednesday that there are signs that the United States (US) could be interested in having a trade deal with the European Union (EU), per Reuters.

15:43 USD/JPY dips below support as the battle between safe-haven currencies persists The US Dollar (USD) continues to weaken against the Japanese Yen (JPY), as shifting economic conditions and central bank outlooks reshape expectations for both currencies.

15:32 Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 0.1% to -0.6% in April Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 0.1% to -0.6% in April

15:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) registered at -0.4%, below expectations (0.1%) in April Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) registered at -0.4%, below expectations (0.1%) in April

15:03 JPY showing impressive gains vs. USD – Scotiabank Japanese Yen (JPY) is entering Wednesday’s NA session with an impressive 0.4% gain vs. the US Dollar (USD), a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:00 Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) above expectations (0.1%) in March: Actual (0.5%) Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) above expectations (0.1%) in March: Actual (0.5%)

15:00 Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) above forecasts (2.2%) in March: Actual (4.3%) Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) above forecasts (2.2%) in March: Actual (4.3%)

14:57 AUD/USD: Break-out soon? – OCBC Australian Dollar (AUD) fell post-dovish RBA yesterday. AUD last at 0.6445 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

14:54 USD, Treasuries and US equity futures weaken – Scotiabank The US Dollar (USD) is trading weaker on the session. It’s another one of those uncomfortable 'sell everything' days for the US.

14:50 USD/JPY extends its decline – OCBC USD/JPY extended its decline following the broad decline in USD. USD/JPY was last at 143.74 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

14:42 DXY: Bias to sell rallies – OCBC US Dollar (USD) fell broadly against most currencies. DXY was last at 99.59, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

14:40 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Extends losing streak for third trading day The USD/CHF pair slides to near 0.8240 during the European trading session, extending the losing streak for the third trading day on Wednesday.

14:36 EUR strengthens as policymakers speak to end of ECB easing cycle – Scotiabank Euro (EUR) is up 0.5% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:29 USD/CNH: Likely to trade in a 7.1850/7.2450 range – UOB Group Downward momentum has largely faded; US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 7.1850/7.2450 range for now against Chinese Yuan (CNH), UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

14:00 South Africa Retail Sales (YoY): 1.5% (March) vs previous 3.9% South Africa Retail Sales (YoY): 1.5% (March) vs previous 3.9%

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications: -5.1% (May 16) vs previous 1.1% United States MBA Mortgage Applications: -5.1% (May 16) vs previous 1.1%

13:33 China Gold imports surge – ING China's Gold imports surged to an 11-month high last month despite record-high prices, according to customs data, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

12:48 Gas: Outages in Norway boost the market – ING European natural Gas prices had a strong day yesterday, with the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) settling almost 5% higher, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

12:44 USD: Hoping for some positive headlines from Canada – ING Periods of data silence often serve as a useful gauge of the market’s underlying bias in FX.

12:42 ECB's Kazaks: ECB will soon reach terminal rate if baseline holds European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Martins Kazaks said on Wednesday, “the ECB will soon reach terminal rate if baseline holds.”

12:32 Germany 10-y Bond Auction increased to 2.66% from previous 2.47% Germany 10-y Bond Auction increased to 2.66% from previous 2.47%

12:31 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:28 Geopolitical risks grow – ING The oil market spiked in early morning trading on media reports suggesting that Israel could be planning a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

11:56 GBP: Don't take inflation spike – ING UK inflation for April surprised on the hot side this morning, with service CPI spiking from 4.7% to 5.4% against expectations for 4.8%, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

11:52 EUR/USD: A sustained advance to 1.1350 is unlikely – UOB Group EUR could rise above 1.1290; the current momentum suggests any further advance is unlikely to reach 1.1320.

11:42 EUR: 1.150 looks premature – ING European currencies in general are enjoying good momentum, with the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona on top of this week’s G10 scorecard, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

11:30 United Kingdom DCLG House Price Index (YoY) came in at 6.4%, above forecasts (5.2%) in March United Kingdom DCLG House Price Index (YoY) came in at 6.4%, above forecasts (5.2%) in March

11:00 South Africa Consumer Price Index (MoM) down to 0.3% in April from previous 0.4% South Africa Consumer Price Index (MoM) down to 0.3% in April from previous 0.4%

11:00 South Africa Consumer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 2.7% to 2.8% in April South Africa Consumer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 2.7% to 2.8% in April

10:59 Greece Current Account (YoY) fell from previous €-2.49B to €-2.998B in March Greece Current Account (YoY) fell from previous €-2.49B to €-2.998B in March

10:42 WTI remains above $62.50 following news of Israel planning to hit Iranian nuclear sites West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its gains for the fourth successive session, trading around $62.70 per barrel during the early European hours on Wednesday.

10:35 Pound Sterling hits over three-year high against USD after hot UK CPI data The Pound Sterling (GBP) attracts bids against its major peers on Wednesday, hitting a fresh three-year high near 1.3470 against the US Dollar (USD).

10:33 Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate meets expectations (5.5%) Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate meets expectations (5.5%)

09:58 Forex Today: Pound Sterling rises on hot UK inflation, US Dollar extends slide Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, May 21:

09:56 GBP/JPY jumps back above 193.00 on hotter UK CPI print, lacks follow-through amid stronger JPY The GBP/JPY cross trims a part of its modest intraday losses following the release of hotter-than-expected UK consumer inflation figures, though it lacks follow-through buying.

09:05 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Wednesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $62.87 per barrel, up from Tuesday’s close at $62.16.

09:05 USD/CAD weakens further below 1.3900 amid bearish USD, rising Oil prices The USD/CAD pair extends the previous day's breakdown momentum below a one-week-old trading range and attracts sellers for the third successive day on Wednesday.

09:02 United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (3.3%) in April: Actual (3.5%) United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (3.3%) in April: Actual (3.5%)

09:01 United Kingdom Retail Price Index (YoY) came in at 4.5%, above forecasts (4.2%) in April United Kingdom Retail Price Index (YoY) came in at 4.5%, above forecasts (4.2%) in April

09:01 Sweden Capacity Utilization fell from previous 0.7% to 0.5% in 1Q Sweden Capacity Utilization fell from previous 0.7% to 0.5% in 1Q

09:01 United Kingdom Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 3.8%, above forecasts (3.6%) in April United Kingdom Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 3.8%, above forecasts (3.6%) in April

09:01 United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (1.1%) in April: Actual (1.2%) United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (1.1%) in April: Actual (1.2%)

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (1.5%) in April: Actual (1.7%) United Kingdom Retail Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (1.5%) in April: Actual (1.7%)

08:39 FX option expiries for May 21 NY cut FX option expiries for May 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

08:13 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bullish outlook remains in play above 1.1300 The EUR/USD pair gathers strength to near 1.1330 during the early European session on Wednesday, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

07:38 Gold price retakes $3,300 amid a broadly weaker USD and reviving safe-haven demand Gold price (XAU/USD) prolongs its weekly uptrend for the third straight day and climbs further beyond the $3,300 mark, to a one-and-a-half-week high during the Asian session on Wednesday.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

05:50 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD consolidates around $33.00; seems poised to climb further Silver (XAG/USD) retreats slightly following an Asian session uptick to the $33.20 area, or over a one-week high, and erodes a part of the previous day's strong move up.

05:47 Canadian FinMin: G7 weighs joint tariffs on low-value Chinese imports Canada’s Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne confirmed on Wednesday that Group of Seven (G7) nations are mulling over coordinated efforts to impose levies on low-value Chinese imports.

05:28 Japanese Yen advances to two-week high against a broadly weaker USD The Japanese Yen (JPY) touched a fresh two-week high against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Wednesday despite the disappointing release of Japan's trade balance data.

04:38 Australian Dollar advances as US Dollar receives downward pressure from cautious Fedspeak The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, rebounding after falling more than 0.50% in the previous session.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1937 vs. 7.1931 previous On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1937 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1931 and 7.2133 Reuters estimate.

02:50 Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total came in at ¥-115.8B, below expectations (¥227.1B) in April Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total came in at ¥-115.8B, below expectations (¥227.1B) in April

02:50 Japan Imports (YoY) came in at -2.2%, above forecasts (-4.5%) in April Japan Imports (YoY) came in at -2.2%, above forecasts (-4.5%) in April

02:50 Japan Exports (YoY) meets forecasts (2%) in April Japan Exports (YoY) meets forecasts (2%) in April

01:51 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rallies above $33.00 as USD slips Silver price soared on Tuesday, climbing past the $33.00 mark per troy ounce as the US Dollar weakened across the board.

01:46 New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) came in at $1426M, above expectations ($500M) in April New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) came in at $1426M, above expectations ($500M) in April

01:46 New Zealand Imports: $6.42B (April) vs previous $6.62B New Zealand Imports: $6.42B (April) vs previous $6.62B

01:45 New Zealand Exports climbed from previous $7.59B to $7.84B in April New Zealand Exports climbed from previous $7.59B to $7.84B in April

01:45 New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (YoY) increased to $-4.81B in April from previous $-6.13B New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (YoY) increased to $-4.81B in April from previous $-6.13B

01:22 GBP/USD drifts higher ahead of late-week run of UK and US data GBP/USD rose slightly on Tuesday, climbing toward (but still not able to capture) the 1.3400 handle.

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