Forex News Timeline

23:28 Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions: ¥179.2K vs ¥177.8K
Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions: ¥179.2K vs ¥177.8K

23:28 United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $163.3K vs previous $175.4K
United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $163.3K vs previous $175.4K

23:28 United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions rose from previous £20.5K to £24K
United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions rose from previous £20.5K to £24K

23:28 Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions climbed from previous €65K to €75.8K
Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions climbed from previous €65K to €75.8K

23:28 Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions increased to $-49.9K from previous $-54.6K
Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions increased to $-49.9K from previous $-54.6K

23:27 United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: $-78.7K vs previous $-75.9K
United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: $-78.7K vs previous $-75.9K

23:27 United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions climbed from previous 171K to 177.2K
United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions climbed from previous 171K to 177.2K

22:43 Gold price slips after robust US jobs data, trade optimism
Gold (XAU/USD) price edged down over 0.35% on Friday, poised to end the week with losses of over 2.50%. An improvement in risk appetite due to easing trade tensions alongside a strong labor market report in the United States (US) prompted investors to book profits ahead of the weekend.

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An improvement in risk appetite due to easing trade tensions alongside a strong labor market report in the United States (US) prompted investors to book profits ahead of the weekend. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,226 after retreating from a daily high of $3,269.Overnight news revealed that China’s commerce ministry said the US was willing to begin trade talks and tariffs and reassured Washington that Beijing’s door is open for discussions.Bullion prices extended their losses on the headline that Nonfarm Payrolls in April crushed estimates, with the Unemployment Rate holding firm compared to March numbers. XAU/USD’s drop towards the day’s low of $3,222 was precipitated by traders reducing their bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut rates three times instead of four.US Treasury yields rose sharply, but the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's performance against a basket of six other currencies, tumbled 0.20% to 99.98.After the data release, investors rushed to price in 78 basis points of Fed rate cuts, as revealed by data from Prime Market Terminal.Source: Prime Market TerminalNext week, Gold traders are eyeing the release of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, during which the US central bank is expected to keep rates on hold.Daily digest market movers: Gold price edges lower as US Treasury yields jumpRecently released data pushed US bond prices down, increasing US Treasury yields. The US 10-year Treasury note yield is soaring nine basis points, up to 4.312%. At the same time, US real yields rallied nine and a half bps to 2.062%, as shown by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yields.US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 177K in April, down from the downwardly revised number of 185K in March but exceeding estimates of 130 K. Earlier in the week, a dismal ADP National Employment Change report suggested that companies were hiring fewer people than the NFP revealed.The US Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, which is aligned with forecasts and might prevent the Federal Reserve (Fed) from easing its policy.XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price remains bullish but poised to drop below $3,200The Gold price correction extended below $3,250 after traders tried to reclaim $3,270 but failed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that sellers are gathering steam; hence, a drop below the $3,200 figure is likely.In that outcome, the next support would be the April 3 high, which turned support at $3,167. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), at $3,080. Conversely, if buyers lift Gold prices above $3,300, it would clear the path to challenge $3,350, followed by $3,400. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

22:30 AUD/USD strengthens amid mixed US data and trade optimism
The AUD/USD pair sees gains on Friday, strengthening to near 0.6430 as the US Dollar softens.

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The AUD/USD pair sees gains on Friday, strengthening to near 0.6430 as the US Dollar softens. After a disappointing false break of the 100.00 level for the US Dollar Index (DXY), the Aussie benefits from improved sentiment surrounding US-China trade negotiations and a solid, yet slowing, jobs report in the US. While the market remains cautious, hopes for a resolution in the trade dispute between the two largest economies are providing a tailwind for the Australian Dollar.Daily digest market movers: Trade hopes support the AUD, while US data remains mixedUS Dollar Index retreats below 100.00, signaling waning strength after a false break.Nonfarm Payrolls for April show a gain of 177,000, exceeding expectations but slowing from previous months.Chinese officials signal openness to trade talks, boosting optimism for the US Dollar and easing trade tensions.The US labor market shows signs of cooling, as wage inflation remains steady at 3.8%.AUD/USD strengthens as markets digest improving sentiment from trade negotiations.US Treasury Secretary Bessent calls for Fed rate cuts, hinting at softer monetary policy ahead.The April NFP release sets the stage for the Federal Reserve's next policy move, with traders eyeing rate cuts.
Technical analysis: AUD/USD flashes bullish signals as it trades near 0.6500The AUD/USD pair is showing strong bullish momentum, currently trading around 0.6500, a 1.24% gain Friday near the top of its daily range (0.6377 – 0.6469). The RSI is neutral at 61.22, suggesting balanced momentum, while the MACD confirms the buy signal. Both the Stochastic RSI Fast (49.55) and Stochastic %K (79.58) are neutral. Moving averages continue to reinforce the bullish outlook: the 20-day SMA (0.6320), 100-day SMA (0.6282), and 200-day SMA (0.6461) are all signaling buy, along with the 10-day EMA (0.6393) and 10-day SMA (0.6399).Key support levels are at 0.6461, 0.6413 and 0.6411, while resistance sits at 0.6500 and 0.6550.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

21:04 US Dollar Index falls as markets react to NFP report
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies, is retreating on Friday after a brief move above the 100.00 level.

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Technical Analysis
The DXY is flashing an overall bearish signal, currently trading around 99.53 with a big decline on the day. The price is moving within a range of 99.40 to 100.33. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 40.14 and is neutral, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is generating a mild buy signal, suggesting divergence. Both the Stochastic %K at 59.25 and the Ultimate Oscillator at 42.86 also indicate neutral momentum. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 100.27, 105.45, and 104.42, respectively, along with the 10-day and 30-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 99.70 and 101.15, are all producing bearish signals. Support is located at 99.41, while resistance levels are set at 99.70, 99.78, and 100.27.
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

20:30 Dow Jones soars 600 points as NFP data calms recession fears, weekly gains top 3%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rallied over 600 points, or over 1.65%, on Friday following a solid US jobs report that brushed aside fears that the largest economy in the world is tied into a recession.

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The Dow is set to end the week with gains of over 3% and, at the time of writing, hovers past the 41,300 mark after rebounding off the daily low of 40,658.DJIA rallies past 41,300 as solid NFP data boosts sentiment, even as Fed rate cut expectations hold steadyUS Nonfarm Payrolls in April increased by 177K, down from the downwardly revised number of 185K in March, but exceeding estimates of 130K. Earlier in the week, a dismal ADP National Employment Change report suggested that companies were hiring fewer people than the NFP revealed.Also, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, aligned with forecasts, which might prevent the Federal Reserve (Fed) from easing policy.Karen Georges, an equity fund manager at Ecofi in Paris, said, “These good numbers are not likely to fuel inflation, but this is no game changer for the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell.”US President Donald Trump took advantage of the good figures and slammed Fed Chair Jerome Powell in a post on his Truth Social network, demanding the Fed lower interest rates.US Factory Orders in March rose by 4.3% MoM, up from 0.5% the previous month but slightly below the 4.5% foreseen.Stocks related newsIn the meantime, Apple (APPL) and Amazon (AMZN) shares are down 3.5% and 1%, respectively, with the former hit by a miss in sales in China and concern over tariffs. Apple revealed its earnings for Q1 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) coming at $1.65, above estimates of $1.62, and revenue of $95.36 billion, up from the $94.53 billion expected.Amazon’s stock edged down as cloud revenue growth disappointed. In its earnings report for Q1 2025, EPS rose to $1.59, up from the $1.38 forecast, and revenue increased by $155.7 billion above forecasts of $154.88. Fed expected to cut ratesData from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) shows the swaps market expects 88 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, as revealed by the December 2025 fed funds rate futures contract.Dow Jones price forecastThe Dow Jones remains downwardly biased, though traders are testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 41,271. A daily close above the latter could extend the recovery past the 42,000 figure, with bulls targeting the 200-day SMA at 42,281.Conversely, if the Dow tumbles below 41,000, the first support would be the 40,000 mark ahead of the 20-day SMA of 39,705. Once cleared the next support would be the April 23 low of 39,486, ahead of the April 22 high of 39,271 that would close the gap witnessed between April 22 and 23. Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

20:01 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count below forecasts (485): Actual (479)
United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count below forecasts (485): Actual (479)

19:45 EUR/CAD Price Analysis: Euro steadies near 1.5600 as bulls hold longer-term edge
The EUR/CAD pair hovered near the 1.5600 zone on Friday after the European session, showing little change on the day but maintaining a steady bullish bias overall. Price action remains confined to the middle of the daily range, reflecting ongoing consolidation.

EUR/CAD trades around the 1.5600 zone following a quiet Friday session post-Europe.Bullish structure holds, though short-term momentum indicators remain mixed.Long-term trend indicators favor upside while near-term resistance levels begin to cap price.The EUR/CAD pair hovered near the 1.5600 zone on Friday after the European session, showing little change on the day but maintaining a steady bullish bias overall. Price action remains confined to the middle of the daily range, reflecting ongoing consolidation. While short-term signals show hesitation, the broader outlook is supported by strong trend-based indicators positioned below current levels.From a technical standpoint, EUR/CAD retains a bullish posture, albeit with conflicting signals in the near term. The Relative Strength Index sits just below 50, marking a neutral momentum stance. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence sends a sell signal, pointing to a potential slowdown in upside drive. Meanwhile, the Stochastic %K and Commodity Channel Index are also neutral, underlining the current consolidation phase.Trend indicators paint a clearer picture. The 30-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages both lie just under current price action and maintain an upward slope. Though the 20-day Simple Moving Average stands above spot and signals selling pressure, it remains relatively flat and lacks confirmation from other tools. The longer-term 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages continue to point upward, firmly supporting the pair’s medium-term bullish structure.Support is seen at 1.5635, 1.5633, and 1.5627. Resistance levels stand at 1.5675, 1.5683, and 1.5686. A break above resistance could reinforce the bullish outlook, while failure to hold support may shift attention back toward the short-term moving averages.Daily Chart

19:35 ECB’s De Guindos: Keeping a close eye on exchange rate
European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said in an interview with Germany’s Die Presse that there are no signs of weakening in the European currency so far.

European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said in an interview with Germany’s Die Presse that there are no signs of weakening in the European currency so far.Key QuotesCan be optimistic on phase of interest rate cuts continuing.Keeping a close eye on exchange rate developments.There are currently no signs of Euro weakening.

19:00 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Euro climbs toward 1.1400 but faces mixed momentum signals
The EUR/USD pair extended higher on Friday, pushing into the 1.1400 zone after the European session, as buyers retained control in the broader trend. Despite the advance, underlying momentum remains uncertain, with mixed signals from short-term indicators.

EUR/USD was seen around the 1.1400 zone after advancing post-European session on Friday.Bullish outlook remains intact, though momentum indicators point to hesitation.Key moving averages support upside continuation, with resistance emerging nearby.The EUR/USD pair extended higher on Friday, pushing into the 1.1400 zone after the European session, as buyers retained control in the broader trend. Despite the advance, underlying momentum remains uncertain, with mixed signals from short-term indicators. The broader technical structure, however, remains constructive, supported by firm positioning of major moving averages that continue to trend upward.From a technical perspective, the pair is flashing a bullish bias overall. The Relative Strength Index hovers near 59, still neutral but trending higher. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence has turned negative, suggesting fading intraday strength. Meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillator and Stochastic %K remain in neutral territory, reinforcing the current loss of momentum rather than reversing the trend.Trend confirmation is provided by the moving averages. The 10-day and 30-day Exponential Moving Averages, along with the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages, all lie below the current price and slope upward, reinforcing the broader bullish structure. These levels continue to provide strong dynamic support, while resistance now begins to build just above the current trading area.Support is located at 1.1342, 1.1318, and 1.1295. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 1.1377, with a breakout above this zone potentially opening the door to further gains.Daily Chart

18:30 USD/CAD dips as easing trade tensions and soft US data weigh on Greenback
The USD/CAD is trading with losses around the 1.3800 level on Friday, as the pair continues to retreat from the prior session’s highs. The move comes as the US Dollar weakens broadly across the board after a failed attempt to reclaim the 100.00 mark on the US Dollar Index (DXY).

The USD/CAD is trading lower around the 1.3800 area, giving up recent gains amid a broadly weaker US Dollar and improving risk sentiment.US Nonfarm Payrolls came in better than expected at 177,000, but soft ISM and jobless claims data keep Fed rate cut bets intact, while Canada remains sidelined.Technical indicators remain bearish, with key resistance at 1.3844 and support levels eyed around 1.3760.The USD/CAD is trading with losses around the 1.3800 level on Friday, as the pair continues to retreat from the prior session’s highs. The move comes as the US Dollar weakens broadly across the board after a failed attempt to reclaim the 100.00 mark on the US Dollar Index (DXY). Markets are digesting the latest round of labor data out of the US while positioning ahead of potential trade negotiations between the US and China.April’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the US economy added 177,000 jobs, topping expectations of 130,000 and easing fears of a sharp labor market slowdown. However, details revealed that February and March payrolls were revised lower by a combined 58,000 jobs, while the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%. Wage growth came in at 3.8% year-over-year, slightly below expectations. Initial jobless claims rose to 241,000 in the latest week, the highest since mid-February, and continuing claims hit their highest level since November 2021. These data points suggest that cracks are emerging in the labor market, keeping hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut alive for as early as July.Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI softened further in April, slipping to 48.7 from 49.0 in March. The production sub-index declined notably to 44.0, indicating weakening output, although new orders and employment showed marginal improvement. The price index rose modestly to 69.8, its highest since mid-2022, keeping inflation concerns in play.Trade optimism added to the Canadian Dollar’s strength. Reports that China may be open to restarting tariff talks with the US sparked renewed hopes of easing global trade tensions. Canadian economic data remained limited, but the loonie found support from overall risk appetite and commodity-linked flows, particularly as energy and metals prices stabilize. No major releases are expected out of Canada ahead of next week’s labor market data.Technical AnalysisFrom a technical standpoint, USD/CAD exhibits a bearish overall signal, currently trading around 1.3800 and positioned mid-range between 1.3760 and 1.3856. The 10-day EMA at 1.3844 and the 10-day SMA at 1.3834 continue to pressure the pair from above. While the MACD suggests a mild bullish bias, the RSI at 34.67 remains neutral, and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -78.77 signals weak momentum. Longer-term indicators including the 20-day SMA at 1.3908, 100-day SMA at 1.4254, and 200-day SMA at 1.4011 all reinforce the broader downside risk.Immediate resistance is located at 1.3807, followed by 1.3834 and 1.3844. On the downside, support lies at 1.3760 — the session low — with further levels seen around 1.3730 and 1.3690. Unless the pair reclaims the short-term moving averages, the bias remains tilted to the downside heading into next week.Daily Chart

18:26 AUD/USD soars to YTD high as DXY slumps despite solid US jobs report
The Australian Dollar surged to a new year-to-date (YTD) high of 0.6469, gaining over 1.20% following a strong jobs report in the United States (US) that suggested the economy remains solid.

18:14 GBP/USD rebounds despite strong US NFP report, market doubt immediate Fed cuts
The Pound Sterling advanced for the first time in the last four days and bounced off weekly lows against the Greenback, although an upbeat jobs report in the United States (US) decreased fears of a recession in the largest economy.

17:11 USD/CHF declines to near 0.8230 as US Dollar falls further after US NFP data
The USD/CHF pair trades lower around 0.8230 during the North American session on Friday. The Swiss Franc pair weakens as the US Dollar extends its correction after the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April.

17:00 United States Factory Orders (MoM) below expectations (4.5%) in March: Actual (4.3%)
United States Factory Orders (MoM) below expectations (4.5%) in March: Actual (4.3%)

16:04 Singapore Purchasing Managers Index declined to 49.6 in April from previous 50.6
Singapore Purchasing Managers Index declined to 49.6 in April from previous 50.6

16:01 Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 50.3 (April) vs previous 51.8
Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 50.3 (April) vs previous 51.8

15:31 United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) came in at 3.8%, below expectations (3.9%) in April
United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) came in at 3.8%, below expectations (3.9%) in April

15:31 United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in April
United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in April

15:31 United States Average Weekly Hours came in at 34.3, above forecasts (34.2) in April
United States Average Weekly Hours came in at 34.3, above forecasts (34.2) in April

15:30 United States U6 Underemployment Rate down to 7.8% in April from previous 7.9%
United States U6 Underemployment Rate down to 7.8% in April from previous 7.9%

15:30 United States Nonfarm Payrolls above expectations (130K) in April: Actual (177K)
United States Nonfarm Payrolls above expectations (130K) in April: Actual (177K)

15:30 United States Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6% (April) vs 62.5%
United States Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6% (April) vs 62.5%

15:30 United States U6 Underemployment Rate increased to 10% in April from previous 7.9%
United States U6 Underemployment Rate increased to 10% in April from previous 7.9%

15:30 United States Unemployment Rate meets forecasts (4.2%) in April
United States Unemployment Rate meets forecasts (4.2%) in April

14:34 US Dollar retreats slightly ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls release
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is seeing some rejection and heads back to 99.75 at the time of writing on Friday after a false break above the 100-marker.

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China said it considers starting tariff negotiations with the Trump administration. The US Dollar Index remains capped below 100.00 ahead of key US data. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is seeing some rejection and heads back to 99.75 at the time of writing on Friday after a false break above the 100-marker. The Greenback is softening a touch on the back of headlines that China is considering to start tariff negotiations with the Trump administration. As markets navigate news of trade negotiations, they are still eagerly awaiting the real first official trade deal.Regarding the Ukraine-Russia war, the mineral deal between the US and Ukraine was signed, a much smaller one in terms of capital potential for the United States and not military guarantees for Ukraine whatsoever, Bloomberg reported. On the economic calendar front, the focus heads to the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release for April. Expectations are still for a positive print, with the lowest estimate coming in at 50,000 and the highest estimate at 171,000. That means any print below the 50,000 number could be enough to send the DXY lower, while a number above 171,000 could see ample amount of US Dollar strength. Daily digest market movers: Asian trade talks and NFPJapanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said this Friday that the Japanese holdings of US debt are a tool for negotiating with the Trump administration, explicitly raising for the first time its leverage as a massive creditor to the United States in its negotiations, Reuters reported. In a Friday statement, China’s Commerce Ministry said that it had noted senior US officials repeatedly expressing their willingness to talk to Beijing about tariffs, and urged officials in Washington to show “sincerity” toward China. The ministry added “the US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China,” and “China is currently evaluating this”, Bloomberg reports.At 12:30 GMT, the Nonfarm Payrolls report will be published:The Payrolls print is expected to come in at 130,000 against the previous 228,000.The Unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.2%.Monthly Average Hour Earnings are expected to grow at a steady pace of 0.3%.Equities in Europe have taken over the positive tone and are up over 1% on the day. US equity futures look more sluggish. The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May's meeting stands at 7.6% against a 92.4% probability of no change. The June meeting sees a 65.1% chance of a rate cut. Should Nonfarm Payrolls be a big beat on the estimated number, expect rate cut expectations to be unwound, while a miss might see rate cut expectations for June and even May soar. The US 10-year yields trade around 4.21%, erasing past weeks’ softening as traders look for clues on potential rate cut projections from the Federal Reserve. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Time to break or reject?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at a key technical level this Friday, brought there after a three-day winning streak. The Nonfarm Payrolls release could be the key here for this Friday, with a continuation from the past three days and a firm break above the 100-handle. Still, and even in that favorable scenario, a technical rejection could push back the DXY to new three-year lows. On the upside, the DXY’s first resistance comes in at 100.22, which supported the DXY back in September 2024, with a break back above the 100.00 round level as a bullish signal. A firm recovery would be a return to 101.90, which acted as a pivotal level throughout December 2023 and again as a base for the inverted head-and-shoulders (H&S) formation during the summer of 2024.On the other hand, the 97.73 support could quickly be tested on any substantial bearish headline. Further below, a relatively thin technical support comes in at 96.94 before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

14:31 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Wobbles around 200-day EMA near 0.6400 for almost two weeks
The AUD/USD pair jumps to near 0.6430 on Friday. The Aussie pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) corrects sharply, even as hopes of a de-escalation in the trade war between the United States (US) and China have improved.

14:30 India Bank Loan Growth fell from previous 11% to 10.3% in April 14
India Bank Loan Growth fell from previous 11% to 10.3% in April 14

14:30 India FX Reserves, USD: $688.13B (April 21) vs $686.15B
India FX Reserves, USD: $688.13B (April 21) vs $686.15B

13:29 USD/JPY corrects to near 144.50 as US Dollar retraces ahead of US NFP data
The USD/JPY pair faces selling pressure after a three-day recovery move around 146.00, earlier in the day, and corrects to near 144.50 during European trading hours on Friday.

13:01 Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) down to -0.5% in 1Q from previous 1.5%
Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) down to -0.5% in 1Q from previous 1.5%

13:00 Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY) down to 1.6% in 1Q from previous 2.8%
Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY) down to 1.6% in 1Q from previous 2.8%

12:47 EUR/USD gains as US Dollar corrects, Eurozone HICP accelerates in April
EUR/USD holds initial gains to near 1.3300 in Friday’s European session. The major currency remains firm near the day’s high after the release of the hotter-than-expected preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for April.

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The major currency remains firm near the day’s high after the release of the hotter-than-expected preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for April. The Eurostat reported that the core HICP – which excludes volatile components like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco – grew at a faster pace of 2.7% compared to estimates of 2.5% and the March reading of 2.4%. In the same period, the headline HICP rose steadily by 2.2% on year, faster than estimates of 2.2%. Month-on-month headline and core HICP rose steadily by 0.6% and 1.0%, respectively.The impact of the hot inflation figures is expected to be limited on market expectations for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook as officials are more concerned over the economic slowdown in the face of additional tariffs imposed by United States (US) President Donald Trump, with confidence over price pressures returning to the central bank’s target of 2% this year.Traders have priced in a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate reduction by the ECB in the June policy meeting as officials have expressed downside risks to Eurozone inflation.Earlier this week, ECB policymaker and Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn supported the need for further monetary policy expansion and expressed concerns about deepening risks to Eurozone inflation undershooting the central bank’s target of 2% in the face of Trump’s tariffsOlli Rehn didn’t rule out the possibility of interest rates sliding below the neutral rate. "We must analyse all options with an open mind and not a priori rule out rate cuts below the neutral rate, Rehn said in an event, Reuters reported.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD gains at USD's expenseEUR/USD gains at the expense of the US Dollar (USD). The USD corrects despite an increase in hopes of easing trade tensions between the US and China. Investors have become increasingly confident of a de-escalation in the Sino-US trade war after comments from the Chinese Commerce Ministry on Thursday signaled their willingness to initiate trade talks with Washington.China says the door is open to trade talks with the US and urged the US to demonstrate sincerity if it wants trade talks,” Bloomberg reported. From Washington, US President Donald Trump has also expressed confidence that the US will reach a deal with China. “There’s a very good chance we’re going to make a deal, but we’re going to make it on our terms,” Trump said in an interview at NewsNation Town Hall on Thursday and added that the White House can “announce potential trade deals with South Korea, Japan, and India”.Technically, this scenario is favorable for the US Dollar as it diminishes fears of a decline in households’ purchasing power. Investors anticipated that US employers would pass on the burden of higher tariffs to customers, which would diminish their spending capacity. However, the USD is trading lower amid caution ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Economists expect US employers to have hired 130K fresh workers, significantly lower than the March reading of 228K. The Unemployment Rate is seen as steady at 4.2%. Investors will also focus on the Average Hourly Earnings data, a key measure of wage growth, which is expected to have grown steadily by 0.3% on month. Year-on-year, the wage growth measure is expected to have risen at a faster pace of 3.9% compared to the prior release of 3.8%The US inflation data will significantly influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement in the June meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 58.6% chance that the central bank will reduce interest rates in June after leaving them unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% in May.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD climbs above 1.1300EUR/USD returns above the key level of 1.1300 on Friday from its two-week low of 1.1265 posted on Thursday. The major currency pair rebounded after attracting bids near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.1260.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating that the bullish momentum is concluded for now. However, the upside bias still prevails.Looking up, the psychological level of 1.1500 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the 25 September high of 1.1214 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

12:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

12:24 Japan’s Kato: We'll continue to ask the US to reconsider tariffs
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Friday, “we'll continue to ask the US to reconsider tariffs,” per the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

12:06 Italy Trade Balance non-EU climbed from previous €4.707B to €5.958B in March
Italy Trade Balance non-EU climbed from previous €4.707B to €5.958B in March

12:01 Eurozone Preliminary HICP inflation steadies at 2.2% YoY in April vs. 2.1% expected
The Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased 2.2% year-over-year (YoY) in April, at the same pace as seen in March, the official data released by Eurostat showed Friday. The market consensus was for a 2.1% reading in the reported period.

12:01 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) remains at 1% in April
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) remains at 1% in April

12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) above expectations (2.5%) in April: Actual (2.7%)
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) above expectations (2.5%) in April: Actual (2.7%)

12:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate came in at 6.2%, above expectations (6.1%) in March
Eurozone Unemployment Rate came in at 6.2%, above expectations (6.1%) in March

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) remains unchanged at 0.6% in April
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) remains unchanged at 0.6% in April

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) above expectations (2.1%) in April: Actual (2.2%)
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) above expectations (2.1%) in April: Actual (2.2%)

11:57 WTI slides back closer to mid-$58.00s; bearish potential seems intact
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday move up and drops to a fresh daily low, close to mid-$58.00s during the first half of the European session on Friday.

11:47 Gold looks set for weekly loss as news of trade talks curb haven demand
Gold (XAU/USD) trades around $3,250 on Friday, recovering slightly from two-week lows after three straight days of losses. The losing streak that took place this week was the sum of a whole package of headlines that all had one theme in common: easing on tariffs.

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Although sentiment looks to be starting to tilt to the downside, upside risks persist. Gold (XAU/USD) trades around $3,250 on Friday, recovering slightly from two-week lows after three straight days of losses. The losing streak that took place this week was the sum of a whole package of headlines that all had one theme in common: easing on tariffs. Besides the executive orders United States (US) President Donald Trump had signed this week to give relief to the car sector, the main driver for the turnaround in the Gold rally is news that China is considering to start talking with the Trump administration on a potential trade deal, Bloomberg reports on Friday. Although the initial market reaction is bearish for Gold with these possible tariff talks getting underway, a quite big tail risk needs to be outlined. The best example is the current ongoing trade talks between Japan and the US, where Japan is the biggest foreign US debt holder by $1,125.9 billion. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said this Friday that the Japanese holdings are a tool for negotiating with the Trump administration, explicitly raising for the first time its leverage as a massive creditor to the United States, Reuters reported. Daily digest market movers: Trading haltedChina’s Commerce Ministry said in a Friday statement that it had noted senior US officials repeatedly expressing their willingness to talk to Beijing about tariffs, and urged officials in Washington to show “sincerity” toward China. “The US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China,” the ministry added. “China is currently evaluating this”, Bloomberg reports.National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said the Trump administration is making progress in tariff talks and expects news by the end of Friday, Reuters reports. When looking at US debt holders, with Japan coming in first with $1,125.9 billion in holdings, China comes in second with a total of $784.3 billion, while the total US debt amounts to around $26,025.4 billion. The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May's meeting stands at 6.4% against a 93.6% probability of no change. The June meeting sees a 57.8% chance of a rate cut. Should the Nonfarm Payrolls release later this Friday fall substantially, rate cut bets for June and even May might see a lift in sentiment, where a substantial upside beat of estimates would mean a further delay in any rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to be released at 12:30 GMT, with the consensus at 130,000 against the previous 228,000.Another chapter in the take-over story with Gold Road Resources Ltd. Shares were suspended from trading in Sydney, with the miner citing “media speculation regarding a potential change of control transaction”. The suspension will be lifted when the market opens on May 6, unless the company issues an announcement before then, the Perth-based miner said in an exchange filing Friday, Bloomberg reports.Gold Price Technical Analysis: Due for a breatherAlthough the Gold rally may be stalling and a return to the all-time highs at $3,500 will not happen soon, the tail risk of a shock event is still present. That comes with possible trade talks starting between China and the US, opening up risk for a full escalation if talks are not going the way they are supposed to. The pressure is not only on for China, where the tariffs are eroding economic growth, but for President Donald Trump as well as he has nothing to show in terms of trade deals after 100-days of turmoil. The Gold price is currently at a very heavy technical area, with first the daily pivot falling in line with the technical pivotal level from the high of April 11 at $3,245. Very close, the first R1 resistance at $3,254 is already presenting itself. For a solid breakout, $3,332 as R2 resistance is the upside level to look out for and which would deliver confirmation that the three-day losing streak is done. On the downside, the S1 support is providing a cushion at $3,197 and coincides with Thursday’s low. Further down, the technical pivotal floor near $3,167 (April 3 high) comes into play, advancing the S2 at $3,155. XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

11:23 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $32.60 as USD corrects ahead of US NFP
Silver price (XAG/USD) moves higher to near $32.60 during European trading hours on Friday. The white metal gains as the US Dollar (USD) corrects ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

11:09 Pound Sterling rebounds against US Dollar on optimism over US-China trade
The Pound Sterling (GBP) bounces back to near 1.3320 against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday after a three-day correction.

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The GBP/USD pair gains as the market sentiment has turned cheerful after comments from the Chinese Commerce Ministry increased hopes of a de-escalation in the trade war between the United States (USD) and China. On Thursday, the Chinese ministry signaled that the country is ready to discuss trade terms with Washington but emphasized that talks should be based on “sincerity”. “China says the door is open to trade talks with the US and urged the US to demonstrate sincerity if it wants trade talks,” Bloomberg reported.Investors have taken these comments from Beijing as a constructive step towards resolving trade disputes between the world’s two largest nations. The optimism on Sino-US trade resolution has resulted in an increase in demand for risk-perceived currencies. Market participants believe that Beijing won’t need to sell its products into other markets if the US continues to buy them. Investors were worried about fears that China would dump its products into European and Asian economies if its tariff war with the US continues. Given China’s low-cost competitive advantage, the competitiveness of products from other nations would have diminished in the global market. Such a scenario would have been unfavorable for their economic growth.Though investors have underpinned the Pound Sterling against the US Dollar, it is underperforming among more risky peers on firm expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25% in its policy meeting on Thursday. The reasons behind firm BoE dovish bets are global economic uncertainty in the face of tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, a weak labor market outlook due to the increase in employers’ contribution to social security schemes, and softer-than-expected United Kingdom (UK) inflation data for March.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling gains against USD ahead of US NFP dataThe Pound Sterling trades higher against the US Dollar in Friday’s European session. The pair rises as the US Dollar retraces ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, corrects to near 99.85 from an over two-week high of 100.38.Investors will pay close attention to the US official employment data as it will indicate to what extent the tariff policy by President Donald Trump has impacted the job growth. The labor market data will also influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.The US economy is expected to have added 130K fresh workers, significantly lower than the March reading of 228K. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to have remained steady at 4.2%. Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings, a key measure of wage growth, is expected to have grown at a faster pace of 3.9% on year compared to the prior release of 3.8%. On a monthly basis, the wage growth measure is expected to have grown at a steady pace of 0.3%.Until the US labor market shows steady hiring, the Fed is unlikely to make monetary policy adjustments and will mainly focus on curbing elevated consumer inflation expectations. The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid index showed on Thursday that input costs continued to grow at a faster pace. Business owners will eventually pass on higher costs to consumers, which will feed into inflation and limit the scope of monetary policy easing by the Fed. On the contrary, signs of slowing job growth would force the Fed to prioritize employment over inflation.After NFP, the next trigger for the US Dollar will be the Fed’s monetary policy decision, which will be announced on May 7. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are almost fully pricing in that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling recovers from 1.3260The Pound Sterling recovers from the weekly low of 1.3260 against the US Dollar on Friday. The pair corrected in the last three trading days from the three-year high of 1.3445. The overall outlook of the pair remains bullish as all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) strives to return above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would trigger if the RSI manages to do so.On the upside, the three-year high of 1.3445 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the April 3 high around 1.3200 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:00 Austria Unemployment fell from previous 316.3K to 311.8K in April
Austria Unemployment fell from previous 316.3K to 311.8K in April

11:00 Austria Unemployment Rate declined to 7.3% in April from previous 7.4%
Austria Unemployment Rate declined to 7.3% in April from previous 7.4%

11:00 Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 55 to 53.2 in April
Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 55 to 53.2 in April

11:00 Italy Unemployment meets forecasts (6%) in March
Italy Unemployment meets forecasts (6%) in March

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 49 above expectations (48.7) in April
Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 49 above expectations (48.7) in April

10:55 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (48) in April: Actual (48.4)
Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (48) in April: Actual (48.4)

10:51 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (48.2) in April: Actual (48.7)
France HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (48.2) in April: Actual (48.7)

10:45 Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (47) in April: Actual (49.3)
Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (47) in April: Actual (49.3)

10:45 NZD/USD appreciates to near 0.5950 ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls report
NZD/USD retraces its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 0.5940 during the European hours on Friday. The upside of the pair could be restrained as signs of easing US trade tensions support the US Dollar (USD).

10:37 Forex Today: US Dollar retreats ahead of critical April employment data
Here is what you need to know on Friday, May 2:

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The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish April employment data, which will feature wage inflation, Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls figures. Earlier in the day, the European economic calendar will offer preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data, the European Central Bank's (ECB) preferred gauge of inflation, for April. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.39% 0.08% 1.13% -0.38% -0.31% 0.42% -0.12% EUR -0.39% -0.37% 0.71% -0.79% -0.81% 0.02% -0.54% GBP -0.08% 0.37% 1.10% -0.41% -0.46% 0.38% -0.16% JPY -1.13% -0.71% -1.10% -1.47% -1.39% -2.09% -0.99% CAD 0.38% 0.79% 0.41% 1.47% -0.05% 0.80% 0.26% AUD 0.31% 0.81% 0.46% 1.39% 0.05% 0.83% 0.25% NZD -0.42% -0.02% -0.38% 2.09% -0.80% -0.83% -0.54% CHF 0.12% 0.54% 0.16% 0.99% -0.26% -0.25% 0.54% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Despite mixed macroeconomic data releases from the US, the USD outperformed its rivals on Thursday on growing optimism about a de-escalation of the US' conflict with its trading partners. The US Department of Labor reported that weekly Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 241,000 from 223,000 in the previous week. Other data showed that the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged lower to 48.7 in April from 49 in March but came in above the market expectation of 48. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that China Commerce Ministry said that the US has taken the initiative to convey to China that the US is hoping to talk on trade. Related news Nonfarm Payrolls set to show hiring moderated in April as US economic uncertainty mounts Squeeze and NFPs positioning ahead US April Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Analyzing Gold price reaction to NFP surprises EUR/USD closed in negative territory for the third consecutive day on Thursday before stabilizing above 1.1300 in the European morning on Friday. The annual HICP inflation in the Eurozone is forecast to soften to 2.1% from 2.2% in March.Gold lost more than 1% on Thursday and came within a touching distance of $3,200. XAU/USD stages a rebound and rises about 0.5% on the day at around $3,250.GBP/USD lost 0.4% on Thursday and dropped to 1.3260. The pair holds its ground in the European morning and trades near 1.3300. USD/JPY gained more than 1.5% on Thursday and extended its weekly rally to a fresh multi-week high near 146.00 in the Asian session on Friday. The pair edges lower toward 145.00 amid renewed USD weakness in the European trading hours. Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Friday that there is no change at all to their stance of requesting the US to cancel tariffs. Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs What are Nonfarm Payrolls? Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. How does Nonfarm Payrolls influence the Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions? The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market. How does Nonfarm Payrolls affect the US Dollar? Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD. How does Nonfarm Payrolls affect Gold? Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest. Sometimes Nonfarm Payrolls trigger an opposite reaction than what the market expects. Why is that? Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.

10:30 Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 45.8, below expectations (48.6) in April
Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 45.8, below expectations (48.6) in April

10:16 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Tests 1.3800 support after pulling back from nine-day EMA
The USD/CAD pair retraces its gains registered in the previous session, trading around 1.3810 during the early European hours on Friday.

10:15 Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.1 below forecasts (50) in April
Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.1 below forecasts (50) in April

10:12 Japan trade negotiators firmly opposed the US proposal – Nikkei
The Nikkei Asian Review carried a report on Friday, citing that Japan negotiators firmly opposed the US proposal.

10:04 EUR/INR: Indian Rupee cross rates down at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade with a negative bias at the start of Friday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 95.05, with the EUR/INR pair declining from its previous close at 95.83.

09:49 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Strengthens above 193.00, overbought RSI warrants caution for bulls
The GBP/JPY cross drifts higher to near 193.25 during the early European session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) as traders scale back their bets on further interest-rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

09:45 France Budget Balance fell from previous €-40.3B to €-47.03B in March
France Budget Balance fell from previous €-40.3B to €-47.03B in March

09:31 Palladium price today: Rare metals advance at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Friday, according to FXStreet data.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Friday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $954.55 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair advancing from its previous close at $945.50.
In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $975.00 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, also up after the XPT/USD pair settled at $967.75 at the previous close.

09:30 Sweden Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM) above expectations (53.1) in April: Actual (54.2)
Sweden Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM) above expectations (53.1) in April: Actual (54.2)

09:26 AUD/JPY advances above 93.00 due to easing US-China trade tensions
AUD/JPY is on track for its third consecutive day of gains, hovering around the 93.20 level during the Asian session on Friday.

09:02 Crude oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $59.21 per barrel, up from Thursday’s close at $58.71.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $61.79 price posted on Thursday, and trading at $62.30.

08:36 EUR/GBP moves below 0.8500 due to rising optimism over a potential UK-US trade agreement
Crude prices find support as bullish momentum strengthens following Trump’s firm warning of secondary sanctions against countries importing Iranian oil.

08:33 EUR/JPY eases from YTD peak, up a little around 164.30 ahead of Eurozone CPI
The EUR/JPY cross builds on the previous day's blowout rally following the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy decision and touches a fresh year-to-date top, around the 164.60-164.65 region during the Asian session on Friday.

08:28 FX option expiries for May 2 NY cut
FX option expiries for May 2 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for May 2 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1150 1.6b1.1250 1b1.1300 726m1.1385 644mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 144.25 594m145.00 830m146.00 1.5b147.50 1.6bUSD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8280 589m0.8320 793mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6300 653m0.6450 894m0.6550 803mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3700 998m1.3825 834m1.3895 940m1.4000 778m

08:00 Netherlands, The Nevi Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 49.6 to 49.2 in April
Netherlands, The Nevi Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 49.6 to 49.2 in April

08:00 India HSBC Manufacturing PMI above expectations (58.1) in April: Actual (58.2)
India HSBC Manufacturing PMI above expectations (58.1) in April: Actual (58.2)

08:00 USD/CHF flat lines near 0.8300 ahead of US NFP release
The USD/CHF pair trades on a flat note around 0.8290 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the release of the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is due later on Friday.

08:00 Nonfarm Payrolls growth set to slow in April as traders gauge tariffs’ impact on hiring
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is due to publish the high-impact Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 130K in April, lower than the 228K gain reported in March.The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the employment data on Friday at 12:30 GMT.The US jobs report could significantly impact the odds of a June Fed rate cut, rocking the US Dollar.The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is due to publish the high-impact Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April on Friday at 12:30 GMT.The April employment report will be critical to affirm a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in June amid prospects of US trade deals with its major Asian trading partners and an unexpected US economic contraction in the first quarter of this year. The data could, therefore, have a strong bearing on the US Dollar (USD) performance in the near term. In a NewsNation Town Hall interview early Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that he has "potential" trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan and that there is a very good chance of reaching an agreement with China.What to expect from the next Nonfarm Payrolls report?Economists expect the Nonfarm Payrolls to show a 130,000 job gain in April after recording a stellar 228,000 print in March. The Unemployment Rate (UE) is set to stay at 4.2% during the same period.Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), a closely watched measure of wage inflation, are expected to rise by 3.9% year-over-year (YoY) in April, following a 3.8% increase in March.Previewing the April employment report, TD Securities analysts said: “Job growth is likely to show no material signs of deterioration in April despite the spectre of high tariffs impacting economic conditions. Indeed, we expect payrolls to decelerate closer to its steady-state following the series' noticeable jump in March.”“The UE rate is expected to stay unaltered at 4.2%, while wage growth likely lost some momentum, posting a 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) increase,” they added.How will US April Nonfarm Payrolls affect EUR/USD?The US Dollar is looking to extend its recovery stint against its major currency rivals as easing trade tensions continue to underpin risk sentiment, outweighing the negative impact from this week’s important US economic data releases.The first estimate of the US annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed on Wednesday that the US economy contracted by an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first quarter, due to a surge in imports as US firms frontloaded to get ahead of the US levies.Meanwhile, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.6% in March, down from the 3% increase reported in February. Earlier on Wednesday, the ADP report showed that the US private sector payrolls rose by just 62,000 for the month, the smallest gain since July 2024, down from 147,000 in March and missing the consensus forecast for an increase of 108,000.All these discouraging US data supported the case for a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed in June, while a decision to keep rates steady at the current levels is fully priced for next week’s policy meeting. Markets continue predicting a total of four rate cuts by the end of the year, a potential indication that the Fed will prioritize economic growth over inflation.Last month, Fed policymakers remained wary about the US labor market outlook. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he was worried about potential layoffs caused by trade uncertainty. Additionally, Fed Governor Christopher Waller told Bloomberg that it "wouldn't surprise me to see more layoffs, higher unemployment,” adding that the "easiest place to offset tariff costs is by cutting payrolls."Against this backdrop, the April jobs data will be closely scrutinized for any clarity on the state of the US labor market and hints on the Fed’s future interest rate moves.A reading below the 100,000 level could double down on the Fed’s easing prospects, reviving the USD downtrend while lifting Gold price back toward record highs. In case of an upside surprise of a reading above 200,000, Gold could continue its corrective decline as the data could push back against expectations of a June rate cut.Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD: “The main currency pair threatens the key 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1256 in the lead-up to the NFP showdown. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points lower while above the midline, suggesting that the pair remains at a critical juncture.”“Buyers must defend the 21-day SMA cap to retain the bullish bias. If that happens, a rebound toward the 1.1425 supply zone cannot be ruled out. Further up, the 1.1500 round number will come into play. Conversely, EUR/USD could drop sharply toward 1.1100 if the 21-day SMA gives way sustainably. The next healthy support levels are at the 1.1000 psychological barrier and the 50-day SMA at 1.0956.” Economic Indicator Nonfarm Payrolls The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole. Read more. Next release: Fri May 02, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 130K Previous: 228K Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.

07:45 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Hovers near 100.00 after breaking above descending channel
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is losing ground after registering gains in the previous three successive sessions, trading near 100.10 at the time of writing.

07:36 EUR/USD moves away from multi-week low, retakes 1.1300 ahead of Eurozone CPI/US NFP
The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Friday and looks to build on the intraday move up beyond the 1.1300 round-figure mark.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 8,775.74 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 8,734.17 it cost on Thursday. The price for Gold increased to INR 102,358.50 per tola from INR 101,873.60 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,775.74 10 Grams 87,757.36 Tola 102,358.50 Troy Ounce 272,955.20 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price might struggle to capitalize on hopes for a US-China trade deal China's Commerce Ministry said on Friday that the US has recently, through relevant channels, actively conveyed messages to engage in talks on tariff issues and the country is assessing the proposal to start negotiations. This adds to the optimism over a possible easing of the tit-for-tat tariff war between the world’s two largest economies. Moreover, hopes for tariff deals between the US and its trading partners lifted the US Dollar to a three-week high and dragged the Gold price to the $3,200 neighborhood on Thursday. The USD bulls, however, turn cautious amid bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve and ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Traders ramped up their bets that the US central bank will deliver four quarter-point rate reductions by the year-end after data released this week showed that the US economy unexpectedly contracted for the first time since 2022. Moreover, the Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index pointed to signs of easing inflation. Adding to this, the US ADP report on private-sector employment suggested that the US labor market is cooling. Furthermore, the US Department of Labor reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims increased from 223,000 to 241,000 in the week ended April 26 – marking the highest level since February. Meanwhile, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI remained firmly in contraction territory for the second straight month, though it fell less than expected, from 49.0 to 48.7 in April. Traders now look forward to the release of the US monthly employment details for fresh cues about the Fed's policy outlook. The popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show that the economy added 130K new jobs in April, sharply lower than 228K in the previous month. The Unemployment Rate, however, is expected to hold steady at 4.2%, while Average Hourly Earnings might have risen by 0.3%. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:06 Gold price edges higher as bears turn cautious ahead of the key US jobs data
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Friday and looks to build on the overnight bounce from the $3,200 neighborhood, or over a two-week low.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price gains positive traction and moves away from a two-week low set on Thursday.Subdued USD price action lends support to the XAU/USD pair ahead of the US NFP report.The optimism over possible US-China trade negotiations might cap the precious metal.Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Friday and looks to build on the overnight bounce from the $3,200 neighborhood, or over a two-week low. The uptick could be attributed to some repositioning trade ahead of the release of the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later today. The crucial jobs data could provide a fresh insight into the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.Heading into the key data risk, signs of a potential de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China – the world's two largest economies – might continue to act as a headwind for the safe-haven Gold price. Meanwhile, the USD sits near a three-week high touched on Thursday and might further contribute to capping the upside for the commodity. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the XAU/USD pair's corrective slide from the $3,500 mark, or the all-time peak has run its course and positioning for any further gains. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price might struggle to capitalize on hopes for a US-China trade dealChina's Commerce Ministry said on Friday that the US has recently, through relevant channels, actively conveyed messages to engage in talks on tariff issues and the country is assessing the proposal to start negotiations. This adds to the optimism over a possible easing of the tit-for-tat tariff war between the world’s two largest economies.Moreover, hopes for tariff deals between the US and its trading partners lifted the US Dollar to a three-week high and dragged the Gold price to the $3,200 neighborhood on Thursday. The USD bulls, however, turn cautious amid bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve and ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report.Traders ramped up their bets that the US central bank will deliver four quarter-point rate reductions by the year-end after data released this week showed that the US economy unexpectedly contracted for the first time since 2022. Moreover, the Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index pointed to signs of easing inflation.Adding to this, the US ADP report on private-sector employment suggested that the US labor market is cooling. Furthermore, the US Department of Labor reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims increased from 223,000 to 241,000 in the week ended April 26 – marking the highest level since February. Meanwhile, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI remained firmly in contraction territory for the second straight month, though it fell less than expected, from 49.0 to 48.7 in April. Traders now look forward to the release of the US monthly employment details for fresh cues about the Fed's policy outlook.The popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show that the economy added 130K new jobs in April, sharply lower than 228K in the previous month. The Unemployment Rate, however, is expected to hold steady at 4.2%, while Average Hourly Earnings might have risen by 0.3%. Gold price might attract fresh sellers near the pullback resistance zone of $3,260-3,265From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown below the $3,265-3,260 horizontal support and the 50% retracement level of the move higher from the vicinity of mid-$2,900s was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. However, oscillators on the daily chart – though they have been losing positive traction – are yet to confirm the negative outlook. This, in turn, prompts some short-covering move and acts as a tailwind for the Gold price. That said, the aforementioned support breakpoint, around the $3,260-3,265 region, might cap any further gains, above which the XAU/USD pair might reclaim the $3,300 mark. The latter should act as a key pivotal, which if cleared has the potential to lift the Gold price to the $3,348-$3,350 supply zone. Some follow-through buying will suggest that the corrective slide from the all-time peak has run its course and pave the way for a move to the $3,367-$3,368 area en route to the $3,400 mark.On the flip side, the 50% retracement level, around the $3,229-$3,228 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the overnight swing low, around the $3,202-3,201 area. A convincing break below the latter will reaffirm the near-term negative bias and make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the downfall towards the $3,200 round figure en route to the $3,160 zone, representing the 61.8% Fibo. level. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

07:00 Indonesia Core Inflation (YoY) climbed from previous 2.48% to 2.5% in April
Indonesia Core Inflation (YoY) climbed from previous 2.48% to 2.5% in April

07:00 Indonesia Inflation (MoM) dipped from previous 1.65% to 1.17% in April
Indonesia Inflation (MoM) dipped from previous 1.65% to 1.17% in April

06:58 WTI rises to near $59.50 due to potential easing of UK-China tensions
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price extended gains for a second consecutive session, trading near $59.40 per barrel during Asian trading hours on Friday.

06:07 NZD/USD rises above 0.5900 as New Zealand Dollar advances due to improving sentiment
NZD/USD is recovering its losses from the previous session, trading around 0.5930 during the Asian hours on Friday.

05:57 USD/INR slumps on inflows and US Dollar sales
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends the rally on Friday. Foreign portfolio inflows into Indian equities and increased hedging-related US Dollar (USD) sales from local exporters boost the Indian currency.

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Possible equity inflows and US Dollar sales underpin the INR, but geopolitical risks might cap its upside. The US April employment data will take center stage later on Friday. The Indian Rupee (INR) extends the rally on Friday. Foreign portfolio inflows into Indian equities and increased hedging-related US Dollar (USD) sales from local exporters boost the Indian currency. Additionally, optimism surrounding a potential trade agreement between the US and India contributes to the INR's upside. However, the surge in tensions between India and Pakistan could undermine the local currency. Pakistan claims it has “credible intelligence” that India is planning imminent military action, a week after an attack that killed 26 people in the India-administered Kashmir.Investors will closely watch the US April employment data later on Friday, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. The NFP is expected to show 130K job additions in April, while the Unemployment Rate is estimated to remain at 4.2%.Indian Rupee remains strong amid positive domestic marketsThe Indian Rupee's performance in March marked an appreciation of over 2%, its strongest monthly performance since November 2018. MUFG Bank noted, "A weaker US dollar, along with the market becoming more dovish on the US rates outlook, could provide some support for several Asian currencies."US President Donald Trump announced potential trade deals with India, South Korea, and Japan, seeking to convert his tariff policy into trade agreements. US trade representative Jamieson Greer said late Wednesday that US President Donald Trump’s administration expects to conclude initial tariff deals with some US trading partners within weeks. US weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended April 26 rose by 241,000, compared to the previous week of 223K (revised from 222K), according to the US Department of Labor on Thursday. This reading came in above the market consensus of 224K.US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 48.7 in April from 49.0 in March. This figure was stronger than the expectation of 48.0. The US economy contracted at an annualised rate of 0.3% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, according to the US Commerce Department on Thursday. This figure came in weaker than the estimation of 0.4% and down from the previous reading of a 2.4% expansion.Futures contracts see the Fed to start rate cuts in June, with a total of four quarter-point reductions expected, lowering the rate to the 3.25%-3.50% band by year-end. USD/INR keeps the bearish vibe, oversold RSI warrants caution for bearsThe Indian Rupee strengthens on the day. The USD/INR maintains its negative outlook on the daily timeframe, with the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Nonetheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves below the 30.00 mark, indicating oversold conditions and warranting some caution. This suggests that further consolidation or a temporary recovery is on the cards.A breach of the lower limit of the descending trend channel would bring USD/INR to 84.22, the low of November 25, 2024. If the pair continues to see red candlesticks and sustains price action below the mentioned level, we might see a drop to 84.08, the low of November 6, 2024.On the other hand, the immediate resistance level to watch is 85.14, the low of April 23. Sustained trading above this level could pave the way to 85.72, the 100-day EMA, en route to 86.25, the upper boundary of the trend channel. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:50 USD/CAD moves below 1.3850 as US Dollar retreats ahead of NFP report
USD/CAD is slipping during Friday’s Asian session, trading near 1.3830, after posting gains in the prior session.

05:24 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD recovers further from multi-week low, climbs above mid-$32.00s
Silver (XAG/USD) builds on the previous day's goodish bounce from the $31.65 area, or a nearly three-week low, and gains some follow-through traction during the Asian session on Friday.

05:11 Japanese Yen adds to dovish BoJ-inspired losses; hits multi-week low against USD
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to be undermined by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) dovish pause the previous day and drops to over a three-week low against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Friday.

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In fact, the BoJ slashed its forecasts for economic growth and inflation for the current year amid heightened uncertainty over US trade tariffs. Investors were quick to react and pared their bets on further interest-rate hikes. Apart from this, the optimism over the potential de-escalation of the trade war between the US and China – the world's two largest economies – undermines the safe-haven JPY. Meanwhile, hopes for tariff deals between the US and its trading partners remain supportive of a positive risk tone. This, along with an unexpected uptick in Japan's unemployment rate, weighs on the JPY. Moreover, the recent rise in the US Treasury bond yields assists the US Dollar (USD) to stand firm near a multi-week top and turns out to be another factor pushing the USD/JPY pair higher for the fourth straight day. However, prospects for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cap the USD and lend some support to the lower-yielding JPY ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Japanese Yen continues to be weighed down by BoJ’s dovish pause on Thursday and a positive risk toneThe Bank of Japan, as was widely anticipated, kept short-term interest rates steady at 0.5% and struck a cautious tone by slashing its growth and inflation forecasts. The central bank expects the Japanese economy to grow 0.5% in the current fiscal year versus its earlier projection of 1.1% in January and revised down its core CPI forecast from 2.4% to 2.2% for fiscal 2025. In the post-meeting press conference, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the uncertainty from trade policies heightened sharply and the timing to achieve the 2% inflation goal will be somewhat delayed. This forced investors to scale back their bets for the next BoJ interest rate hike in June or July and dragged the Japanese Yen lower for the fourth straight day on Friday. The BoJ, however, reiterated that it remains committed to raising interest rates further if the economy and prices move in line with its forecasts. This, however, does little to impress the JPY bulls amid the latest optimism fueled by hopes for US-China trade negotiations, which remains supportive of a generally positive tone across the global equity markets. In fact, China's state media said on Thursday that US President Donald Trump's administration had used various channels to contact Beijing and had been seeking to initiate tariff negotiations. The statement follows Trump's assertions that conversations between the two nations were already underway – a claim that China has publicly denied repeatedly. Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said this Friday that the country's $1 trillion-plus in US Treasury holdings are among the tools available to use in trade negotiations with the US. Kato also said his meeting with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week did not discuss any desirable level of exchange rates or a possible framework to control currency moves.On the economic data front, a report published by Japan's Statistics Bureau earlier today showed that the Unemployment Rate edged up to 2.5% in March from 2.4% in the previous month. However, Japan's average Unemployment Rate in fiscal 2024 fell 0.1% from a year earlier, to 2.5%, marking the first improvement in two years on the back of a labor shortage. From the US, the Department of Labor reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims increased from 223,000 to 241,000 in the week ended April 26 – marking the highest level since February. Moreover, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI remained firmly in contraction territory for the second straight month, though it fell less than expected, from 49.0 to 48.7 in April.This comes on top of the disappointing US ADP report on private-sector employment and points to signs of a cooling labor market. Adding to this, a surprise contraction in the US GDP for the first time since 2022 and easing inflationary pressures continue to fuel speculations for more interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. The US Dollar, however, seems unaffected and looks to build on a three-day-old uptrend to a three-week top, which, in turn, pushes the USD/JPY pair to the 146.00 neighborhood during the Asian session on Friday. Traders now look forward to the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls report for cues about the Fed's policy outlook and some meaningful impetus. USD/JPY bulls now await a move beyond the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart before placing fresh betsFrom a technical perspective, the overnight breakout above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April downfall and the 145.00 psychological mark was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the upside. The subsequent move up beyond the 50% Fibo. level, however, stalls near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. This makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 146.00 mark before positioning for an extension of the recent goodish recovery move from a multi-month low. Spot prices might then climb to the 146.55-146.60 intermediate resistance before aiming to test the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the 147.00 neighborhood.On the flip side, the 145.25 area could offer immediate support ahead of the 145.00 round figure. Any further corrective slide might now be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the 144.30-144.25 region, or the 38.2% Fibo. level. A convincing break below the latter, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the USD/JPY pair below the 144.00 mark, towards the mid-143.00s en route to the 143.20 area and eventually to sub-143.00 levels. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

05:09 Japan PM Ishiba: No change at all to our stance of requesting US to cancel tariffs
Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Friday that there is “no change at all to our stance of requesting US to cancel tariffs.”

04:39 Australian Dollar holds ground despite a weaker-than-expected Retail Sales MoM
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is rebounding modestly against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, retracing some of the previous session’s losses. However, the AUD/USD pair remains vulnerable as falling metal prices weigh on sentiment.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar maintains its position despite a disappointing Retail Sales MoM for March.The AUD may come under pressure as renewed fears of a global economic slowdown weigh on commodity markets.Trump signaled potential trade agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea, and voiced optimism about reaching a resolution with China.The Australian Dollar (AUD) is rebounding modestly against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, retracing some of the previous session’s losses. However, the AUD/USD pair remains vulnerable as falling metal prices weigh on sentiment. Key commodities such as iron ore, copper, and gold declined amid renewed concerns over a global economic slowdown, pressuring the commodity-linked Aussie Dollar.Adding to the pressure, signs of easing US trade tensions have supported the Greenback. Investor sentiment shifted after US President Donald Trump signaled potential trade deals with India, Japan, and South Korea, and expressed optimism about resolving tensions with China.Australia’s Retail Sales—a key indicator of consumer spending—increased by 0.3% month-over-month in March, up from a 0.2% rise in February, according to data released Friday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). However, the figure fell short of market expectations, which had forecast a 0.4% gain.According to Bloomberg, China is considering renewed trade talks with the US. The Chinese Commerce Ministry noted that Washington has reached out to express interest in resuming negotiations. However, China is reportedly conducting an internal assessment and maintains that the US should correct its tariff-related actions, which it views as the unilateral trigger for the ongoing trade dispute.Australia heads to the polls this weekend, and the outcome presents several risks for the Australian Dollar. Current polling slightly favors incumbent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, but the race remains tight. A key concern is the possibility of Albanese winning only a minority, forcing him to form a government with the support of the Greens and/or independents—raising the risk of more expansive fiscal policies and potential fiscal slippage. Another short-term risk is the potential for a delayed result, with no clear outcome emerging for several days after the vote.Meanwhile, inflationary pressures in Australia in early 2025 have weakened expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). However, markets anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut in May, as policymakers prepare for possible economic fallout from the recently introduced US tariffs.Australian Dollar advances despite a stronger US Dollar due to cautious risk sentimentThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, is climbing for the fourth consecutive day, trading near 100.30 at the time of writing. Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, as investors look for insight into how tariffs may be impacting employment trends.The Greenback is supported by cautious risk sentiment and yield dynamics. However, its broader gains remain limited as markets await Friday’s jobs data, particularly in light of softer-than-expected labor and manufacturing indicators.The ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.7 in April from 49.0, indicating continued contraction in the sector. While still below the 50.0 expansion threshold, the reading was better than expectations of 48.0.Initial Jobless Claims rose to 241,000 for the week ending April 26, above both the consensus forecast of 224,000 and the previous week’s revised figure of 223,000. Meanwhile, the Employment Index within the ISM survey showed a modest improvement, rising to 46.5 from 44.7. While still signaling declines in manufacturing employment, the pace of deterioration appears to be slowing.US President Donald Trump, during a NewsNation Town Hall interview early Thursday, expressed optimism about a potential trade agreement with China, stating there is a "very good probability we'll reach a deal." Trump emphasized that any agreement with China must meet US conditions. He also mentioned the possibility of future trade deals with India, South Korea, and Japan, and noted that a deal with Ukraine was finalized earlier in the day.The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday a trade surplus of AUD 6.9 billion for March, significantly surpassing expectations of AUD 3.13 billion and the revised February figure of AUD 2.85 billion (down from AUD 2.97 billion). The strong surplus was driven by a 7.6% rise in exports and a 2.2% decline in imports for the month.On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, up from a 0.2% increase in Q4 2024 and exceeding market expectations of a 0.8% rise. On an annual basis, CPI climbed 2.4% in the first quarter, beating the forecast of 2.2%.Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that markets still anticipate further interest rate cuts. “The market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures,” he stated, adding that there’s “nothing in these numbers that would substantially alter market expectations.”In China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slipped to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, falling short of the 49.9 consensus and indicating a return to contraction. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also softened, easing to 50.4 in April from 50.8 in March, below the expected 50.7.Australian Dollar finds support at 0.6400 near nine-day EMAThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6410 on Friday, maintaining a bullish bias on the daily chart. The pair continues to hold above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains comfortably above 50—both suggesting sustained upward momentum.The AUD/USD pair could find immediate resistance at the recent four-month high of 0.6449, posted on April 29. A decisive break above this level could pave the way toward the five-month high at 0.6515.On the downside, initial support is located at the nine-day EMA at 0.6387, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6320. A breach below these levels could weaken the bullish outlook and may expose the pair to deeper losses, with the March 2020 low near 0.5914 as a distant bearish target.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.10% -0.00% 0.19% -0.09% -0.29% -0.24% 0.21% EUR -0.10% -0.09% 0.12% -0.18% -0.38% -0.31% 0.12% GBP 0.00% 0.09% 0.17% -0.07% -0.28% -0.21% 0.22% JPY -0.19% -0.12% -0.17% -0.28% -0.47% -0.42% 0.05% CAD 0.09% 0.18% 0.07% 0.28% -0.21% -0.13% 0.31% AUD 0.29% 0.38% 0.28% 0.47% 0.21% 0.07% 0.51% NZD 0.24% 0.31% 0.21% 0.42% 0.13% -0.07% 0.43% CHF -0.21% -0.12% -0.22% -0.05% -0.31% -0.51% -0.43% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) The Retail Sales data, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the value of goods sold by retailers in Australia. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales values in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Fri May 02, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 0.3% Consensus: 0.4% Previous: 0.2% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Why it matters to traders? The primary gauge of Australia’s consumer spending, the Retail Sales, is released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) about 35 days after the month ends. It accounts for approximately 80% of total retail turnover in the country and, therefore, has a significant bearing on inflation and GDP. This leading indicator has a direct correlation with inflation and the growth prospects, impacting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rates decision and AUD valuation. The stats bureau uses the forward factor method, ensuring that the seasonal factors are not distorted by COVID-19 impacts.

04:39 GBP/USD posts modest losses below 1.3300 ahead of US NFP release
The GBP/USD pair drifts lower to near 1.3275 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The positive developments surrounding US-China trade talks provide some support to the US Dollar (USD).

04:32 Australia’s Retail Sales rise 0.3 % MoM in March vs. 0.4% expected
Australia’s Retail Sales, a measure of the country’s consumer spending, rose 0.3% MoM in March, compared to an increase of 0.2% in February, the official data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Friday.

04:30 Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) registered at 0.3%, below expectations (0.4%) in March
Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) registered at 0.3%, below expectations (0.4%) in March

04:30 Australia Producer Price Index (YoY) unchanged at 3.7% in 1Q
Australia Producer Price Index (YoY) unchanged at 3.7% in 1Q

04:30 Australia Producer Price Index (QoQ) came in at 0.9%, above forecasts (0.8%) in 1Q
Australia Producer Price Index (QoQ) came in at 0.9%, above forecasts (0.8%) in 1Q

04:18 US Secretary of State Rubio says Ukraine and Russia positions are still a little far apart
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that Ukraine and Russia's positions are still a little far apart, adding that it's going to take a breakthrough soon in Ukraine to make this possible. However, US President Donald Trump has to decide how much time to dedicate to this.

04:03 China says it’s evaluating US trade talks - Bloomberg
China said on Friday that it is assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US, per Bloomberg.

03:30 South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 47.5 (April) vs previous 49.1
South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 47.5 (April) vs previous 49.1

03:27 Japan’s Akazawa: No comment on specifics of tariff negotiations with Trump
Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Friday that he has no comment on specific negotiations with the United States. Akazawa said that the Japanese officials want to hold the next meeting after mid-May.

03:09 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD loses momentum below $3,250, US NFP data in focus
The Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to a two-week low near $3,235 during the early Asian session on Friday. The easing of trade tensions between the US and its trading partners has dented the safe-haven demand, weighing on the precious metal.

02:51 Japan Monetary Base (YoY): -4.8% (April) vs previous -3.1%
Japan Monetary Base (YoY): -4.8% (April) vs previous -3.1%

02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥705.6B to ¥278.3B in April 25
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥705.6B to ¥278.3B in April 25

02:30 Japan Unemployment Rate above forecasts (2.4%) in March: Actual (2.5%)
Japan Unemployment Rate above forecasts (2.4%) in March: Actual (2.5%)

02:30 Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio registered at 1.26 above expectations (1.25) in March
Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio registered at 1.26 above expectations (1.25) in March

02:24 EUR/USD holds below 1.1300 on firmer US Dollar, all eyes on US NFP data
The EUR/USD pair softens to around 1.1290 during the early Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Euro (EUR) amid optimism about a de-escalation in the global trade conflict. All eyes will be on the US April Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is due later on Friday.

02:00 South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in April
South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in April

02:00 South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY) meets forecasts (2.1%) in April
South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY) meets forecasts (2.1%) in April

01:58 US Vice President Vance: Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going to end any time soon
US Vice President JD Vance said in an interview with Fox News on Thursday that the war in Ukraine is not going to end "any time soon.”

01:48 Japan’s Kato says US Treasury holdings among tools for trade talks
Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said on Friday that Japan's huge US Treasury holdings are among tools available for Tokyo in trade negotiations with the United States, per Reuters.

01:03 Mexican Peso holds ground as US data signals slowdown
The Mexican Peso posted slight losses against the US Dollar on Thursday after economic data in the United States (US) suggested slowing manufacturing and a cooling labor market. The USD/MXN trades at 19.58 after hitting a daily low of 19.57.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Mexican Peso suffers as safe-haven US Dollar status keeps USD/MXN supported near 19.50.Mexico surprises with Q1 growth, dodging recession as US economy contracts sharply.Weak US manufacturing and jobless claims boost recession fears, lifting demand for the Greenback.The Mexican Peso posted slight losses against the US Dollar on Thursday after economic data in the United States (US) suggested slowing manufacturing and a cooling labor market. The USD/MXN trades at 19.58 after hitting a daily low of 19.57.Market mood has improved as US trade-related news shows some progress in some Asian countries. Even though it doesn’t include China, rumors that Washington contacted Beijing keep investors’ hopes high for a deal between both countries.Wednesday data revealed Mexico’s economy grew, surprising most analysts who expected a contraction and a technical recession. In the US, the first quarter of 2025 contracted, mostly supported by a rise in imports ahead of the effect of tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.Although this was positive for the Peso, the USD/MXN seems to have found its footing, bottoming near the 19.50 area after clearing below the 20.00 figure since mid-April.US economic data revealed on Thursday that the odds of a recession had increased. The US labor market is cooling as Initial Jobless Claims rose above estimates. At the same time, business activity in manufacturing has plunged, according to the ISM Manufacturing PMI.Although economic growth divergence favored the Peso, other US data sparked a flight to the Greenback’s safe-haven status. Ahead in the week, USD/MXN traders are eyeing the release of April’s US Nonfarm Payroll figures.Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso stays flat amid soft US dataMexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q1 2025 rose 0.2% QoQ, above forecasts of 0% and improved after shrinking Q4 2024 -0.6% contraction.Economic data revealed on Monday showed that the Balance of Trade printed a surplus and that labor market conditions remain solid as the Unemployment Rate ticked lower in March compared to FebruaryIn the US, the economy shrank as the GDP came at -0.3% in Q1 2025, missing expectations for a 0.4% expansion and marking a sharp slowdown from Q4 2024’s 2.4% growth, according to the Commerce Department.The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI was higher than estimates of 48 and came in at 48.7, down from March’s reading of 49.Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 26 rose by 241K, much higher than the 224K expected and up from 223K revealed a week ago.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso remains bullish as USD/MXN stays below 200-day SMAThe USD/MXN is downward biased, though it seems to have bottomed out near the 19.46-19.50 range during the last two weeks. The reason behind this is that the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is glued near the 30 level, flatlines, an indication that sellers lack the strength to push the exotic pair lower.If USD/MXN falls below the current year-to-date (YTD) low, the first support would be the 19.46 mark; once surpassed, the 19.00 figure would follow. A breach of the latter would expose the June 28 high, which turned support at 18.59.Conversely, if USD/MXN rallies past the 20-day SMA at 19.88 and the 200-day SMA near 19.97, the pair would be poised to challenge the 20.00 figure. Up next lies the 50-day SMA at 20.12. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

01:00 AUD/NZD Price Analysis: Aussie stalls near 1.0800 as bearish pressure builds
The AUD/NZD pair edged slightly higher on Thursday, trading near the 1.0800 area as the market transitions into the Asian session. While the move shows mild intraday strength, the broader technical setup remains tilted to the downside.

AUD/NZD trades around the 1.0800 zone after modest gains ahead of the Asian session.Bearish bias holds despite short-term momentum stabilizing.Key moving averages above price reinforce resistance, while support remains close below.The AUD/NZD pair edged slightly higher on Thursday, trading near the 1.0800 area as the market transitions into the Asian session. While the move shows mild intraday strength, the broader technical setup remains tilted to the downside. Mixed signals from short-term indicators clash with the clearly defined bearish structure shaped by longer-term trendlines and overhead resistance.Technically, AUD/NZD is flashing a bearish signal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence currently gives a soft buy signal, while the Relative Strength Index remains neutral just below the 50 line. The Stochastic RSI Fast and Average Directional Index are also neutral, indicating that despite the day’s gains, momentum remains capped and trend conviction limited.The bearish outlook is underpinned by the configuration of key moving averages. Both the 30-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages are positioned above the current price, capping any upward extension. More significantly, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs — aligned near the 1.0990 area — add longer-term resistance to the structure. The only supportive element comes from the 20-day SMA, which offers a soft floor just beneath current levels, but lacks the weight to counter the broader trend.Immediate support is located at 1.0784, 1.0776, and 1.0760. Resistance awaits at 1.0804, 1.0820, and 1.0833.Daily Chart

00:00 USD/JPY rallies as BoJ caution and US data push pair to two-week high
The USD/JPY is trading with notable strength, surging to the upper end of its recent range as the Japanese Yen continues to underperform following the Bank of Japan’s latest policy meeting.

The USD/JPY is trading with strong gains near 146.00 as the Yen weakens sharply following the BoJ’s dovish policy guidance.US jobless claims surged to 241,000 while the ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.7, reinforcing expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year.Technical outlook remains bullish short-term, with the pair testing resistance near 146.64 and support seen around 145.04.The USD/JPY is trading with notable strength, surging to the upper end of its recent range as the Japanese Yen continues to underperform following the Bank of Japan’s latest policy meeting. The pair is up 1.76% on the day and approaches the 146.00 area, driven by renewed divergence between US and Japanese monetary policy outlooks and fresh signs of labor market softness in the US.The BoJ kept interest rates unchanged at 0.50% and downgraded its GDP and inflation forecasts for the current and next fiscal years, citing elevated external risks and domestic uncertainty. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a cautious tone during his press conference, highlighting that inflation momentum may stall and that the outlook lacks the confidence needed for further rate hikes. The central bank now expects GDP growth of just 0.5% for FY2025, down from 1.1%, and also lowered its inflation forecast. Markets interpreted this stance as dovish, pushing back expectations for the next hike to late 2025 at the earliest.Meanwhile, the US Dollar held firm against most peers after mixed data. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 48.7 in April, down from 49.0, but still better than expectations of 48. Employment conditions in the manufacturing sector improved modestly, with the subindex rising to 46.5, while the Prices Paid Index climbed to 69.8, showing sustained cost pressures. Additionally, initial jobless claims rose to 241,000, above both the previous week’s print and market expectations, signaling a softening labor market. These figures added to the view that the Fed may soon need to respond with rate cuts to support growth.Political and trade uncertainty also added a layer of caution to market sentiment. Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned about the adverse economic impact of Trump’s new tariffs, while reports suggest the US may be seeking to re-engage with China and Japan on trade terms. The USD remains broadly supported for now, helped by rising US Treasury yields and strong tech earnings boosting equity sentiment.Technical AnalysisFrom a technical standpoint, USD/JPY is flashing a bullish signal, currently trading around 146.00 and near the top of its daily range of 142.87 to 145.65. The MACD is giving a clear buy signal, aligning with bullish support from the 10-day EMA at 143.35 and the 10-day SMA at 142.71. The RSI sits at 52.88, indicating room for further upside, while the ADX at 34.02 reinforces the bullish trend. The Williams Percent Range at -1.46 is neutral, and the 20-day SMA at 143.70 continues to underpin the uptrend. However, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at 151.01 and 149.83 respectively suggest longer-term resistance remains significant.Key support levels are found at 145.55, 145.04, and 144.65. On the upside, resistance lies at 145.67, 146.64, and 146.95. A sustained break above 146.64 could open the door toward testing the 148.00 handle in coming sessions, particularly if Friday’s nonfarm payrolls confirm further labor market weakness and intensify Fed cut bets. Until then, the short-term bias remains skewed to the upside.Daily Chart

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Forex News Timeline

23:28 Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions: ¥179.2K vs ¥177.8K Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions: ¥179.2K vs ¥177.8K

23:28 United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $163.3K vs previous $175.4K United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $163.3K vs previous $175.4K

23:28 United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions rose from previous £20.5K to £24K United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions rose from previous £20.5K to £24K

23:28 Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions climbed from previous €65K to €75.8K Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions climbed from previous €65K to €75.8K

23:28 Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions increased to $-49.9K from previous $-54.6K Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions increased to $-49.9K from previous $-54.6K

23:27 United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: $-78.7K vs previous $-75.9K United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: $-78.7K vs previous $-75.9K

23:27 United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions climbed from previous 171K to 177.2K United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions climbed from previous 171K to 177.2K

22:30 AUD/USD strengthens amid mixed US data and trade optimism The AUD/USD pair sees gains on Friday, strengthening to near 0.6430 as the US Dollar softens.

21:04 US Dollar Index falls as markets react to NFP report The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies, is retreating on Friday after a brief move above the 100.00 level.

20:30 Dow Jones soars 600 points as NFP data calms recession fears, weekly gains top 3% The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rallied over 600 points, or over 1.65%, on Friday following a solid US jobs report that brushed aside fears that the largest economy in the world is tied into a recession.

20:01 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count below forecasts (485): Actual (479) United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count below forecasts (485): Actual (479)

19:35 ECB’s De Guindos: Keeping a close eye on exchange rate European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said in an interview with Germany’s Die Presse that there are no signs of weakening in the European currency so far.

18:26 AUD/USD soars to YTD high as DXY slumps despite solid US jobs report The Australian Dollar surged to a new year-to-date (YTD) high of 0.6469, gaining over 1.20% following a strong jobs report in the United States (US) that suggested the economy remains solid.

17:00 United States Factory Orders (MoM) below expectations (4.5%) in March: Actual (4.3%) United States Factory Orders (MoM) below expectations (4.5%) in March: Actual (4.3%)

16:04 Singapore Purchasing Managers Index declined to 49.6 in April from previous 50.6 Singapore Purchasing Managers Index declined to 49.6 in April from previous 50.6

16:01 Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 50.3 (April) vs previous 51.8 Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 50.3 (April) vs previous 51.8

15:31 United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) came in at 3.8%, below expectations (3.9%) in April United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) came in at 3.8%, below expectations (3.9%) in April

15:31 United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in April United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in April

15:31 United States Average Weekly Hours came in at 34.3, above forecasts (34.2) in April United States Average Weekly Hours came in at 34.3, above forecasts (34.2) in April

15:30 United States U6 Underemployment Rate down to 7.8% in April from previous 7.9% United States U6 Underemployment Rate down to 7.8% in April from previous 7.9%

15:30 United States Nonfarm Payrolls above expectations (130K) in April: Actual (177K) United States Nonfarm Payrolls above expectations (130K) in April: Actual (177K)

15:30 United States Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6% (April) vs 62.5% United States Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6% (April) vs 62.5%

15:30 United States U6 Underemployment Rate increased to 10% in April from previous 7.9% United States U6 Underemployment Rate increased to 10% in April from previous 7.9%

15:30 United States Unemployment Rate meets forecasts (4.2%) in April United States Unemployment Rate meets forecasts (4.2%) in April

14:30 India Bank Loan Growth fell from previous 11% to 10.3% in April 14 India Bank Loan Growth fell from previous 11% to 10.3% in April 14

14:30 India FX Reserves, USD: $688.13B (April 21) vs $686.15B India FX Reserves, USD: $688.13B (April 21) vs $686.15B

13:29 USD/JPY corrects to near 144.50 as US Dollar retraces ahead of US NFP data The USD/JPY pair faces selling pressure after a three-day recovery move around 146.00, earlier in the day, and corrects to near 144.50 during European trading hours on Friday.

13:01 Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) down to -0.5% in 1Q from previous 1.5% Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) down to -0.5% in 1Q from previous 1.5%

13:00 Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY) down to 1.6% in 1Q from previous 2.8% Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY) down to 1.6% in 1Q from previous 2.8%

12:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

12:24 Japan’s Kato: We'll continue to ask the US to reconsider tariffs Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Friday, “we'll continue to ask the US to reconsider tariffs,” per the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

12:06 Italy Trade Balance non-EU climbed from previous €4.707B to €5.958B in March Italy Trade Balance non-EU climbed from previous €4.707B to €5.958B in March

12:01 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) remains at 1% in April Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) remains at 1% in April

12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) above expectations (2.5%) in April: Actual (2.7%) Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) above expectations (2.5%) in April: Actual (2.7%)

12:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate came in at 6.2%, above expectations (6.1%) in March Eurozone Unemployment Rate came in at 6.2%, above expectations (6.1%) in March

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) remains unchanged at 0.6% in April Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) remains unchanged at 0.6% in April

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) above expectations (2.1%) in April: Actual (2.2%) Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) above expectations (2.1%) in April: Actual (2.2%)

11:57 WTI slides back closer to mid-$58.00s; bearish potential seems intact West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday move up and drops to a fresh daily low, close to mid-$58.00s during the first half of the European session on Friday.

11:09 Pound Sterling rebounds against US Dollar on optimism over US-China trade The Pound Sterling (GBP) bounces back to near 1.3320 against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday after a three-day correction.

11:00 Austria Unemployment fell from previous 316.3K to 311.8K in April Austria Unemployment fell from previous 316.3K to 311.8K in April

11:00 Austria Unemployment Rate declined to 7.3% in April from previous 7.4% Austria Unemployment Rate declined to 7.3% in April from previous 7.4%

11:00 Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 55 to 53.2 in April Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 55 to 53.2 in April

11:00 Italy Unemployment meets forecasts (6%) in March Italy Unemployment meets forecasts (6%) in March

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 49 above expectations (48.7) in April Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 49 above expectations (48.7) in April

10:55 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (48) in April: Actual (48.4) Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (48) in April: Actual (48.4)

10:51 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (48.2) in April: Actual (48.7) France HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (48.2) in April: Actual (48.7)

10:45 Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (47) in April: Actual (49.3) Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (47) in April: Actual (49.3)

10:37 Forex Today: US Dollar retreats ahead of critical April employment data Here is what you need to know on Friday, May 2:

10:30 Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 45.8, below expectations (48.6) in April Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 45.8, below expectations (48.6) in April

10:16 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Tests 1.3800 support after pulling back from nine-day EMA The USD/CAD pair retraces its gains registered in the previous session, trading around 1.3810 during the early European hours on Friday.

10:15 Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.1 below forecasts (50) in April Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.1 below forecasts (50) in April

10:12 Japan trade negotiators firmly opposed the US proposal – Nikkei The Nikkei Asian Review carried a report on Friday, citing that Japan negotiators firmly opposed the US proposal.

09:45 France Budget Balance fell from previous €-40.3B to €-47.03B in March France Budget Balance fell from previous €-40.3B to €-47.03B in March

09:31 Palladium price today: Rare metals advance at the start of the European session Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Friday, according to FXStreet data.

09:30 Sweden Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM) above expectations (53.1) in April: Actual (54.2) Sweden Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM) above expectations (53.1) in April: Actual (54.2)

09:26 AUD/JPY advances above 93.00 due to easing US-China trade tensions AUD/JPY is on track for its third consecutive day of gains, hovering around the 93.20 level during the Asian session on Friday.

08:36 EUR/GBP moves below 0.8500 due to rising optimism over a potential UK-US trade agreement Crude prices find support as bullish momentum strengthens following Trump’s firm warning of secondary sanctions against countries importing Iranian oil.

08:28 FX option expiries for May 2 NY cut FX option expiries for May 2 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

08:00 Netherlands, The Nevi Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 49.6 to 49.2 in April Netherlands, The Nevi Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 49.6 to 49.2 in April

08:00 India HSBC Manufacturing PMI above expectations (58.1) in April: Actual (58.2) India HSBC Manufacturing PMI above expectations (58.1) in April: Actual (58.2)

08:00 Nonfarm Payrolls growth set to slow in April as traders gauge tariffs’ impact on hiring The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is due to publish the high-impact Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

07:36 EUR/USD moves away from multi-week low, retakes 1.1300 ahead of Eurozone CPI/US NFP The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Friday and looks to build on the intraday move up beyond the 1.1300 round-figure mark.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:06 Gold price edges higher as bears turn cautious ahead of the key US jobs data Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Friday and looks to build on the overnight bounce from the $3,200 neighborhood, or over a two-week low.

07:00 Indonesia Core Inflation (YoY) climbed from previous 2.48% to 2.5% in April Indonesia Core Inflation (YoY) climbed from previous 2.48% to 2.5% in April

07:00 Indonesia Inflation (MoM) dipped from previous 1.65% to 1.17% in April Indonesia Inflation (MoM) dipped from previous 1.65% to 1.17% in April

06:58 WTI rises to near $59.50 due to potential easing of UK-China tensions West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price extended gains for a second consecutive session, trading near $59.40 per barrel during Asian trading hours on Friday.

06:07 NZD/USD rises above 0.5900 as New Zealand Dollar advances due to improving sentiment NZD/USD is recovering its losses from the previous session, trading around 0.5930 during the Asian hours on Friday.

05:57 USD/INR slumps on inflows and US Dollar sales The Indian Rupee (INR) extends the rally on Friday. Foreign portfolio inflows into Indian equities and increased hedging-related US Dollar (USD) sales from local exporters boost the Indian currency.

05:50 USD/CAD moves below 1.3850 as US Dollar retreats ahead of NFP report USD/CAD is slipping during Friday’s Asian session, trading near 1.3830, after posting gains in the prior session.

05:24 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD recovers further from multi-week low, climbs above mid-$32.00s Silver (XAG/USD) builds on the previous day's goodish bounce from the $31.65 area, or a nearly three-week low, and gains some follow-through traction during the Asian session on Friday.

05:11 Japanese Yen adds to dovish BoJ-inspired losses; hits multi-week low against USD The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to be undermined by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) dovish pause the previous day and drops to over a three-week low against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Friday.

05:09 Japan PM Ishiba: No change at all to our stance of requesting US to cancel tariffs Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Friday that there is “no change at all to our stance of requesting US to cancel tariffs.”

04:39 GBP/USD posts modest losses below 1.3300 ahead of US NFP release The GBP/USD pair drifts lower to near 1.3275 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The positive developments surrounding US-China trade talks provide some support to the US Dollar (USD).

04:30 Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) registered at 0.3%, below expectations (0.4%) in March Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) registered at 0.3%, below expectations (0.4%) in March

04:30 Australia Producer Price Index (YoY) unchanged at 3.7% in 1Q Australia Producer Price Index (YoY) unchanged at 3.7% in 1Q

04:30 Australia Producer Price Index (QoQ) came in at 0.9%, above forecasts (0.8%) in 1Q Australia Producer Price Index (QoQ) came in at 0.9%, above forecasts (0.8%) in 1Q

04:03 China says it’s evaluating US trade talks - Bloomberg China said on Friday that it is assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US, per Bloomberg.

03:30 South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 47.5 (April) vs previous 49.1 South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 47.5 (April) vs previous 49.1