Forex News Timeline

23:37 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 3.76M (April 25) vs -4.565M
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 3.76M (April 25) vs -4.565M

23:19 AUD/USD remains under pressure ahead of key data releases
The AUD/USD pair is struggling near the 0.6400 level as trade policy uncertainty continues to impact sentiment. Investors are awaiting critical data this week, including the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and GDP figures, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) stance on interest rates.

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The AUD/USD pair is struggling near the 0.6400 level as trade policy uncertainty continues to impact sentiment. Investors are awaiting critical data this week, including the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and GDP figures, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) stance on interest rates. The trade war and concerns over inflation remain key factors driving market uncertainty.Daily digest market movers: US data, tariffs weigh on sentimentThe AUD/USD pair slips after testing resistance near 0.6450, as uncertainty around US trade policy impacts risk sentiment.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on trade policy delays added to market unease.President Trump’s plans to ease tariffs on auto imports failed to spark significant market movement.The JOLTS report showed softening labor demand, with job openings falling to 7.19 million, missing expectations.US consumer confidence continued to slide, with the Conference Board’s Index falling to its lowest since 2020.Expectations for a Fed rate cut in June rise after softening labor and confidence data.The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains near 99.16, up slightly on the day, amid cautious optimism for a trade thaw.Market mood remains cautiously positive as US equities show slight gains despite tariff-related uncertainties.Traders are focused on the upcoming US GDP report, with the market expecting weak growth due to trade friction.In Australia, CPI data for Q1 is due this week, with expectations for cooling inflation.US trade data, including the Goods Trade Balance, remains in focus amid trade negotiations with China and other partners.President Trump’s tariff policies continue to weigh on the US Dollar as the global trade landscape remains uncertain.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.6450, bullish trend intact
The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6400, down 0.65% on the day. Price action remains range-bound between 0.6376 and 0.6450. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 55.98, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to generate a buy signal. However, short-term momentum is bearish, with the 10-day momentum at 0.0043. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is neutral at 69.64. Short-term moving averages are bullish, with the 10-day EMA at 0.6373 and the 100-day SMA at 0.6282, supporting the overall bullish outlook. Resistance is found at 0.6450, and the 200-day SMA at 0.6464 remains a key hurdle. Support levels are identified at 0.6373, 0.6336, and 0.6336, with the pair likely to continue testing resistance.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

23:04 Gold price slips as USD recovers and risk appetite improves
Gold price retreats during the North American session on Tuesday as the Greenback stages a recovery, posting modest gains amid softer US economic data and reduced safe-haven demand. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,323, down 0.60%.

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At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,323, down 0.60%.United States (US) equity markets continued to rise as investors turned optimistic that US President Donald Trump may ease tariffs on autos, car parts and trucks and soften the US stance with China. In the meantime, a gauge of the buck’s value against six currencies, the US Dollar Index (DXY), rose 0.27% back above the 99.00 handle after hitting a yearly low of 97.92 on April 21 and capped Gold’s advance.The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent delivered remarks in the White House, saying there was some advance in India and Japan trade negotiations, but failed to clarify “talks” between the US and Beijing.Year to date, Bullion prices had struck a 25% gain sponsored by uncertainty about US trade policies and a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the US economic schedule suggests the labor market begins to soften, while the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence showed that households had grown pessimistic about the economic outlookThis week, traders are targeting the release of US economic data—mostly hard data, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for Q1 2025, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and Nonfarm Payroll figures.Daily digest market movers: Gold price retreats unfazed by the plunge in US yieldsThe yield on the US 10-year Treasury note plunges three and a half basis points, reaching 4.17%.US real yields collapsed three bps to 1.92%, as shown by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yields.The US Department of Labor reported that JOLTS job openings fell to 7.192 million in March, the lowest since September. This was below expectations of 7.5 million and down from 7.48 million the previous month, signaling weaker labor demand.The US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 86.0 in April, its lowest level in nearly five years, down from 93.9 and below the 87.5 forecast, reflecting rising consumer pessimism.The risks of the global economy slipping into a recession are increasing, according to a Reuters poll.XAU/USD technical outlook: Remains bullish but poised to test $3,200Gold price uptrend is intact, but during the last five trading days, XAU/USD consolidated within the $3,260-$3,386 range, unable to clear beneath the $3,200 figure or above the $3,400 mark.As measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), momentum remains bullish, but the index’s slope is falling towards its neutral line. This signals that neither buyers nor sellers are in charge.If XAU/USD tumbles below $3,300, the next support would be the April 23 swing low of $3,260 before diving to $3,200. Conversely, if Gold rises past $3,400, the next resistance would be $3,450 ahead of the all-time high at $3,500. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

22:45 Forex Today: US hard data steal the show
The renewed buying pressure prompted the Greenback to leave behind Monday’s pessimism and chart decent gains on Tuesday, always on the back of mitigating US-China trade concerns and rising prudence ahead of key US data releases later in the week.

The renewed buying pressure prompted the Greenback to leave behind Monday’s pessimism and chart decent gains on Tuesday, always on the back of mitigating US-China trade concerns and rising prudence ahead of key US data releases later in the week.Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 30:The US Dollar Index (DXY) printed modest gains around the 99.20 zone amid the continuation of the downward trend in US yields across the board. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications are due in the first turn, seconded by the ADP Employment Change, inflation tracked by the PCE, Personal Income, Personal Spending, the Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, the Employment Cost Index, the flash Q1 GDP Growth Rate, and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories.EUR/USD faded part of Monday’s decent uptick, meeting decent contention around the 1.1370 zone. Germany will be at the cenre of the debate in Europe, with the releases of Retail Sales, the jobs report, and the advanced estimate of Q1 GDP Growth Rate, flash Inflation Rate, and the preliminary Q1 GDP Growth Rate for the broader euro area.GBP/USD flirted with yearly highs near 1.3450, although it later deflated to the 1.3400 region following the firmer US Dollar. Next on tap across the Channel will be the Nationwide House Price Index, followed by Mortgage Approvals, Mortgage Lending, the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and the BoE’s M4 Money Supply and Consumer Credit figures, all due on May 1.USD/JPY traded with modest gains in the lower end of the weekly range near 142.00 following Monday’s sharp pullback. Japanese preliminary Industrial Production data is due, seconded by Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Construction Orders, and the final readings of the Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index.AUD/USD climbed to new highs, although it made a U-turn afterwards, ending Tuesday’s session with marked losses near 0.6380. Quarterly Inflation Rate is due along with the RBA’s Monthly CPI Indicator, Housing Credit, and Private Sector Credit figures.Prices of WTI added to Monday’s retracement and approached new lows near the key $60.00 mark per barrel on the back of a gloomy demand outlook.Prices of Gold extended further their choppy activity, putting the $3,300 support to the test once again amid easing trade jitters and a stronger Greenback. Silver prices reversed Monday’s small gains and slipped back below the $33.00 mark per ounce.

21:44 US Dollar Index weakens as confidence and labor data disappoint
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, is showing muted gains on Tuesday after soft labor market and consumer sentiment data raised expectations for policy easing.

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Technical analysis: DXY demonstrates moderate gains despite bearish picture
The DXY is showing a slight intraday gain around 99.20, though the broader trend remains bearish. Price action is trapped between 98.95 and 99.37. Momentum is mixed, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence ( MACD ) flashing a buy signal, while the Relative Strength Index RSI (35.71) and the Ultimate Oscillator (50.06) remain neutral. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) (100.79), 100-day SMA (105.64), and 200-day SMA (104.48) all suggest bearish continuation. Additional downside pressure is confirmed by the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (99.64) and 10-day SMA (99.35). Resistance levels are located at 99.26, 99.35, and 99.64.

US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

20:28 Dow Jones rallies 300 points as soft US data fuels Fed rate cut bets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surged over 300 points or 0.80% on Tuesday as softer-than-expected United States (US) economic data suggested the need for lower interest rates, as witnessed by the fall of US Treasury yields.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Dow is up 0.80% as markets cheer softer data; Treasury yields tumble in response.JOLTS and Consumer Confidence data miss, strengthening the case for Fed easing in the coming months.Trade policy ambiguity lingers after Bessent’s vague China comments and Amazon tariff confusion.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surged over 300 points or 0.80% on Tuesday as softer-than-expected United States (US) economic data suggested the need for lower interest rates, as witnessed by the fall of US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the DJIA trades near 40,500 after bouncing off daily lows of 40,150.DJIA climbs near 40,500 as weak labor and confidence figures drive yields lower and lift equities despite trade uncertaintyMarket mood remains positive as the three most important US stock indices register gains, even though they retreated during US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's press conference at the White House. He commented on some progress with India and Japan, but failed to clarify regarding trade talks with China.US Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt revealed that Amazon’s shares were punished after reports emerged that Jeff Bezos's company was looking to list product tariff costs on its website. Later, Amazon’s spokesperson reported that the label tariff price was never under consideration for the main Amazon website.Earlier, the US Department of Labor revealed that JOLTS data for March fell to 7.192 million, the lowest level since September, signaling softening labor demand. The reading missed expectations of 7.5 million, down from the previous month’s 7.48 million.Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped sharply in April to 86.0, its lowest in nearly five years. It was down from 93.9 and missed the 87.5 forecast, highlighting growing pessimism among consumers.After the data, the odds for the May meeting suggest the Fed will hold rates unchanged. Nevertheless, the June meeting is a coin flip, with the chances of lowering borrowing costs standing at 56.8%.Ahead in the week, traders are eyeing the release of US GDP for Q1 2025, the Core PCE for April, followed by the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payroll figures.Dow Jones price forecastThe Dow Jones cleared the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 39,800, extending its gains past the 40,000 mark. Although price action suggests buyers are gathering steam, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is failing to follow suit with price action. This hints that the latest advance could be short-lived and pave the way for a deeper pullback.Meanwhile, if the Dow clears the 41,000 mark, expect a test of the 50-day SMA at 41,477, followed by the 200-day SMA at 42,272. On further strength, up next lies the 100-day SMA at 42,576.On the flip side, a drop below 40,000 clears the path to test April 23’s low of 39,486, followed by the April 22 high of 39,271 to close the gap witnessed between April 22 and 23. Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

20:06 USD/CHF holds ground after tariff relief, jobs data
The USD/CHF pair is trading around 0.8900 during the North American session on Tuesday, benefiting from broader US Dollar (USD) strength. US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick revealed White House plans aimed at easing tariffs on US automakers, supporting a mild recovery in global risk appetite.

USD/CHF trades near the 0.8900 zone after US Commerce Secretary unveiled auto industry relief plans and risk sentiment improved slightly.Dollar demand remains supported by trade developments and weaker-than-expected US labor data fueling monetary policy speculation.Technical outlook stays cautiously bullish while USD/CHF navigates key moving averages and consolidates recent gains.The USD/CHF pair is trading around 0.8900 during the North American session on Tuesday, benefiting from broader US Dollar (USD) strength. US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick revealed White House plans aimed at easing tariffs on US automakers, supporting a mild recovery in global risk appetite. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) edges higher towards 99.30, underpinned by expectations that weaker labor market data and soft consumer confidence could steer the Federal Reserve (Fed) toward a more cautious policy stance. However, uncertainty remains around US-China trade negotiations, preventing a stronger USD rally.Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for March slumped to 7.192 million, missing expectations of 7.5 million and marking the lowest reading since September. In parallel, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 86.0 in April, suggesting rising economic pessimism. Despite weaker labor and sentiment readings, the USD gained modestly as markets anticipated possible trade tariff relief and awaited key economic figures later in the week, including GDP and ISM PMI releases.Elsewhere, geopolitical headlines influenced risk sentiment. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that China should take the initiative to de-escalate trade tensions, while Beijing’s move to waive the 125% tariff on US ethane imports was seen as a marginal positive. Markets remain cautious, particularly as conflicting messages from Washington and Beijing add to uncertainty.Technical AnalysisUSD/CHF holds a constructive tone above 0.8880, leaning towards a gradual advance. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) stands around 0.8870, offering immediate support, while the 50-day SMA near 0.8820 provides a secondary floor. Momentum indicators reflect modest bullishness: the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stabilizes around the 55 mark, while the MACD is approaching a bullish crossover. On the upside, if bulls push above 0.8915, next resistance could emerge around 0.8950, followed by the psychological barrier at 0.9000. A breakdown below 0.8870 could expose 0.8820 and 0.8780 as support areas.With a mild improvement in risk sentiment, White House support for automakers, and mixed US economic data, USD/CHF remains biased to the upside in the short term. However, broader moves will hinge on upcoming US economic releases and further trade-related developments.Daily chart

19:05 EUR/CAD Price Analysis: Euro steadies against Canadian Dollar despite minor pullback
The EUR/CAD was seen trading around the 1.5800 zone after the European session on Tuesday, showing little movement on the day after a slight decline. Despite the minor dip, the overall technical setup stays bullish.

EUR/CAD trades near the 1.5800 zone after a muted performance during Tuesday's session.The pair maintains a bullish bias, supported by strong moving averages despite some mixed momentum signals.Support and resistance levels remain clustered around the 1.5780 area, offering nearby technical guidance.The EUR/CAD was seen trading around the 1.5800 zone after the European session on Tuesday, showing little movement on the day after a slight decline. Despite the minor dip, the overall technical setup stays bullish. Indicators offer a mixed picture: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds a neutral stance around 57, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is flashing a sell signal, while the Williams Percent Range and Average Directional Index (ADX) also lean neutral. Still, strong support from key moving averages keeps the broader bullish trend intact.Looking deeper, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.5698, along with the 100-day SMA at 1.5203 and the 200-day SMA at 1.5089, continue to point towards a buying bias, reinforcing the underlying strength of the Euro against the Canadian Dollar. Short-term momentum is further backed by the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.5760 and the 10-day SMA at 1.5781, both indicating sustained bullish pressure.However, momentum indicators urge some caution. The RSI at 57 suggests neither strong overbought nor oversold conditions, while the MACD indicates some near-term selling pressure. The Williams Percent Range, hovering close to -31, and the ADX around 38, both reflect a neutral to moderate trend strength.Support for EUR/CAD lies at 1.5780, 1.5764, and 1.5760, levels that could cushion any additional pullback. On the upside, traders will be eyeing potential resistance closer to the 1.5810 area, where earlier price action capped gains during Tuesday's moves. Overall, while some intraday hesitation is evident, the broader structure favors continued strength for the Euro unless key supports are decisively broken.Daily chart

18:54 US Lutnick: Domestic car makers could move supply chains to the US
US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick unveiled White House’s plans for US auto markers.

US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick unveiled White House’s plans for US auto markers. Key QuotesAdjustments to autos tariffs are aimed at allowing domestic automakers time to grow US plants, employment.The executive orders grew out of detailed conversation with domestic car makers.Manufacturers of US-built autos will get a 15% offset for the value of those vehicles against parts imports.This will help domestic car makers to move supply chains to US.

18:30 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bullish trend holds despite minor pullback after European session
The EUR/USD is flashing a bullish tone on Tuesday’s session after the European close, even as the pair slightly retraced from earlier highs and now trades near the mid-1.13 to low-1.14 area. Despite a modest dip during the session, broader technical signals continue to suggest upside potential.

EUR/USD trades near the mid-1.13 to low-1.14 zone after a slight pullback on Tuesday.Overall bias remains bullish, backed by key moving averages despite mixed signals from indicators.Support rests around the mid-1.13 area while resistance is found just under the 1.14 handle.The EUR/USD is flashing a bullish tone on Tuesday’s session after the European close, even as the pair slightly retraced from earlier highs and now trades near the mid-1.13 to low-1.14 area. Despite a modest dip during the session, broader technical signals continue to suggest upside potential. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral reading and the MACD issues a sell signal, the bullish bias is reinforced by moving averages aligned to the upside.Looking deeper into the indicators, the RSI hovers around 63, staying comfortably out of overbought territory, suggesting the pair still has room to run. The MACD, on the other hand, provides a short-term sell signal, hinting at some ongoing consolidation or potential pullback. The Average Directional Index (ADX) around 51 reflects a neutral trend strength, and the Stochastic RSI remains low near 16, implying that bearish momentum is not yet dominant.On the positive side, the bullish structure remains intact thanks to the 20-day simple moving average at 1.1240, the 100-day at 1.0659, and the 200-day at 1.0774 — all pointing upward. Exponential moving averages also support the outlook, with the 10-day EMA at 1.1357 and 30-day EMA at 1.1149, reinforcing the upward trend.Support is seen around 1.1380, followed by 1.1357 and deeper near 1.1249. On the upside, resistance comes into play around 1.1395. While short-term signals may suggest some hesitation, the broader technical framework still favors bullish continuation as long as the pair holds above key support zones.Daily Chart

18:21 GBP/USD slips below 1.34 as risk rally fades, US data disappoints
The Pound Sterling depreciates against the US Dollar and falls after testing the year-to-date (YTD) high of 1.3443. However, it fails to remain above 1.34 as it extends its losses. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3379, down 0.29%.

17:53 USD/CAD continues to hold 1.3800 on slight optimism in US-China trade war de-escalation
The USD/CAD pair moves slightly higher to near 1.3855 during North American trading hours on Tuesday. The Loonie pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) ticks higher, with investors turning slightly optimistic on de-escalation in the trade war between the United States (US) and China.

17:10 China waives tariffs on US ethane imports – Reuters
Citing two sources familiar with the matter, Reuters reported on Tuesday that China has decided to waive the 125% tariff on ethane imports from the United States imposed earlier this month.

17:04 US CB Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 86.0 in April
US consumer sentiment extended its decline in April, as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell from 93.9 (revised from 92.9) to 86.0—its weakest reading since April 2020.

US CB Consumer Confidence Index declined further in April.The US Dollar Index clings todaily gains around the 99.00 region.US consumer sentiment extended its decline in April, as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell from 93.9 (revised from 92.9) to 86.0—its weakest reading since April 2020.

17:00 United States JOLTS Job Openings below expectations (7.5M) in March: Actual (7.192M)
United States JOLTS Job Openings below expectations (7.5M) in March: Actual (7.192M)

16:39 USD/JPY holds above 142.00 ahead of US JOLTS Job Openings data, BoJ policy eyed
The USD/JPY pair ticks higher to near 142.30 during the North American session on Tuesday. The pair edges up as the US Dollar (USD) steadies ahead of the United States (US) JOLTS Job Openings data for March, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY stays above 142.00 as the US Dollar ticks higher ahead of key US JOLTS Job Openings data for March.US Bessent has stated that Chin should be the one to initiate trade talks.Investors expect the BoJ to keep interest rates steady on Thursday.The USD/JPY pair ticks higher to near 142.30 during the North American session on Tuesday. The pair edges up as the US Dollar (USD) steadies ahead of the United States (US) JOLTS Job Openings data for March, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is marginally higher around 99.10.Economists expect US employers to have posted 7.5 million fresh jobs, marginally lower than 7.56 million seen in February. Steady growth in US new job data is unlikely to fluctuate market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook significantly. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% in the May policy meeting.This week, investors will pay close attention to a slew of US economic data, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which will be released on Friday.Meanwhile, diminishing fears of a de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China will keep the US Dollar on the backfoot. Investors have started doubting whether trade discussions between Washington and Beijing are underway after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled on Monday that China should be the one to initiate trade talks. “I believe that it’s up to China to de-escalate, because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, Bessent said in an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box.In the Asia-Pacific region, investors await the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate decision, which will be announced on Thursday. The BoJ is expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.5%. Investors will pay close attention to commentary on the monetary policy guidance. Market participants want to know whether hopes of interest rate hikes are still alive in the face of the tariff policy announced by US President Donald Trump. Economic Indicator BoJ Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY. Read more. Next release: Thu May 01, 2025 03:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 0.5% Previous: 0.5% Source: Bank of Japan

16:01 US Treasury Sec. Bessent: Trump creating strategic uncertainty in negotiations
United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that President Donald Trump is creating "strategic uncertainty" in trade negotiations, per Reuters.

16:00 United States Housing Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.3%) in February: Actual (0.1%)
United States Housing Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.3%) in February: Actual (0.1%)

16:00 United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) came in at 4.5% below forecasts (4.8%) in February
United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) came in at 4.5% below forecasts (4.8%) in February

15:55 United States Redbook Index (YoY) dipped from previous 7.4% to 6.1% in April 25
United States Redbook Index (YoY) dipped from previous 7.4% to 6.1% in April 25

15:30 United States Wholesale Inventories below forecasts (0.7%) in March: Actual (0.5%)
United States Wholesale Inventories below forecasts (0.7%) in March: Actual (0.5%)

15:30 United States Goods Trade Balance declined to $-162B in March from previous $-147B
United States Goods Trade Balance declined to $-162B in March from previous $-147B

14:27 JPY underperforming along with haven peer CHF – Scotiabank
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened by 0.5% against the dollar, underperforming even fellow haven currencies, as markets brace for soft domestic data and upcoming US-Japan trade negotiations.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened by 0.5% against the dollar, underperforming even fellow haven currencies, as markets brace for soft domestic data and upcoming US-Japan trade negotiations. With the BoJ expected to hold steady, JPY remains vulnerable to external risks and policy inertia, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Focus on data, trade, and BoJ"JPY is weak, down 0.5% vs. the USD and underperforming all of the G10 currencies along with its haven peer CHF. Domestic releases are in focus with industrial production and retail sales scheduled for release after the NA session." "Both are expected to show weakness in March, and are therefore unlikely to move the BoJ off the sidelines, given the widely expected hold at this week’s policy meeting. US/ Japan trade negotiations are set to continue between Wednesday and Friday, offering additional headline risk for the yen."

14:24 GBP fades modestly from fresh multiyear high – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) soft, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and trading in tandem with EUR in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) soft, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and trading in tandem with EUR in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. GBP/USD trend remains bullish"The pound reached a fresh high late in Monday’s NA session, reaching levels last seen in February 2022. The domestic release calendar is limited and the scheduled BoE speakers are likely to generate any market-moving headlines given the broadly consistent message of easing and a fullypriced 25bpt cut for the May 8 BoE policy meeting." "The BoE will also release a fresh set of forecasts and likely provide some initial analysis around US tariffs and their risks to growth and inflation.""The bull trend is intact and has been reinforced by GBP’s push to a fresh multi-year high in the mid-1.34s. Near-term resistance is now expected closer to 1.3750, followed by the psychologically important 1.40 level. Near-term support is expected in the mid-lower 1.32s. Momentum is also bullish, with an RSI in the mid-64s."

14:21 EUR: ECB CPI expectations surprise w/ markets still pricing June cut – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is soft, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Euro (EUR) is soft, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. EUR is soft on the day "Second-tier confidence data were broadly (albeit marginally) disappointing while the ECB’s CPI expectations figures delivered an unexpected rise. The tone from the ECB has been broadly dovish, and it will be interesting to see (if, and) how these inflation expectations figures are discussed. Markets are still roughly pricing one full 25bpt cut at the June meeting." "The trend is bullish but momentum is softening, reflecting the nearly three week range that has seen movement bound between support in the mid-1.12s and resistance in the mid/upper-1.15s."

14:19 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $33.30, capitalizes on US-China trade uncertainty
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades higher to near $33.30 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The white metal gains as investors start doubting whether de-escalation in the trade war between the United States (US) and China is underway.

14:17 CAD steady despite election delivering another minority government – Scotiabank
The Canadian election results brought disappointment for pretty much everyone—the Liberals won, but are short of a majority, the Conservatives saw a jump in popular support but their leader failed to hold his own riding while both the NDP and Bloc lost heavily, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun

The Canadian election results brought disappointment for pretty much everyone—the Liberals won, but are short of a majority, the Conservatives saw a jump in popular support but their leader failed to hold his own riding while both the NDP and Bloc lost heavily, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD downtrend remains well-established on the daily chart"PM Carney will have to work with the minority parties—possibly the Bloc—to pass legislation. While the CAD slipped marginally in overnight trade but is trading little changed on the day now and USDCAD risk reversal pricing shows little change in skew through the 1– ,3– and 6-month tenors, suggesting markets are not overly concerned about another minority government at this point—despite the challenges ahead for Canada." "Spot continues to consolidate on the short-term charts, with the broader USD decline finding some support against a broad range of congestion situated just below last week’s 1.3781 low." "The USD downtrend remains well-established on the daily chart which will help limit scope for USD rebounds in the near-term. Intraday resistance is 1.3880, with strong resistance likely nearer 1.40. Support is 1.3775/80 and (key) 1.3745."

14:15 AUD/USD retreats after failing to hold multi-month high – BBH
AUD/USD trimmed gains after testing resistance near 0.6450, as market attention shifts to upcoming Q1 CPI data.

AUD/USD trimmed gains after testing resistance near 0.6450, as market attention shifts to upcoming Q1 CPI data. While RBA officials remain cautious on inflation progress, markets have fully priced in a rate cut at the March 20 meeting, reflecting continued uncertainty around trade policy and inflation dynamics, BBH FX analysts report. RBA's kent offers no policy signals"AUD/USD pared back gains after testing a multi-month high at 0.6450 overnight. There was no policy-relevant insight from RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent speech overnight. Kent discussed Australia’s external position and acknowledged 'the sharp rise in volatility in FX markets in early April.' Indeed, global FX volatility increased in April to near a two-year high on US tariffs related news. Ongoing uncertainties surrounding US trade policies and the potential economic impact of tariffs are likely to keep FX volatility elevated.""Q1 CPI is the next domestic data highlight (tomorrow, 2:30am London). Australia headline CPI is expected at 2.3% y/y vs. 2.4% in Q4 and the policy-relevant trimmed mean CPI is forecast at 2.8% y/y vs. 3.2% in Q4. The RBA projects trimmed mean CPI of 2.7% throughout its forecast horizon to 2027. Meanwhile, Governor Michele Bullock cautioned that the Board does not have “_100% confidence_” that inflation is moving sustainably towards the midpoint of the 2–3% target range. For the March 20 RBA policy meeting, cash rate futures have fully priced-in a 25bps cut and 16% odds of an additional 25bps reduction."

14:14 US Dollar steady as markets try to read through tariffs and US data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, edges slightly higher and trades at 99.20 at the time of writing on Tuesday.

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The Trump administration shelves negotiation attempts with China while more reprieve on US tariffs could be announced. The US Dollar Index is still capped below the 100.00 round level, trading near 99.20 on Tuesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, edges slightly higher and trades at 99.20 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The dust is still settling after the Dallas Federal Reserve (Fed) released the April Manufacturing Sentiment Index on Monday. Besides the fact that the number contracted to -35.8, a number not seen since the COVID pandemic, the actual report mentioned participants' comments. Participants expressed their current sentiment with words like “chaos” and “insanity”, in order to describe the turmoil spurred by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. That gives a flurry of how things are unwinding in the US under the current tariff schemes. US yields dip as well as traders bet on increased chances for the Fed to cut interest rates rather sooner than later, should the upcoming US economic data this week, with the preliminary Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for April, be as gruesome as the Dallas Fed Manufacturing print. On the economic calendar front, there is some lighter data ahead on Tuesday, with the central theme on the JOLTS Job Openings report for March. Although this is backward-looking, before US tariffs were implemented, it could already give a sentiment if US companies were preparing for an impact and reduced their job hiring activity. Besides that, the preliminary US Goods Trade Balance for March is also expected. Daily digest market movers: Is this just the beginning?At 12:30 GMT, the preliminary US Goods Trade Balance for March is due. No forecast available with the previous deficit at $147 billion. Preliminary Wholesale Inventories for March are also due at the same time, expected to tick up 0.7% from the 0.3% increase in February. At 13:00 GMT, the February House Price Index is due. It is expected to tick up 0.3% from 0.2% in February. At 14:00 GMT, the JOLTS Job Openings report for March is expected to contract further to 7.5 million, coming from 7.568 million previously. The Consumer Confidence for April is also due, though no forecast is available. Equities are steady with very small gains to report overall, on average below 0.5% for both European indices and the US Futures markets. The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the May’s meeting stands at 8.9% against a 91.1% probability of no change. The June meeting sees a 62.6% chance of a rate cut. The US 10-year yields trade around 4.23%, ticking a bit lower with traders slowly but surely buying back into US bonds. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Nothing moving The US Dollar Index (DXY) is not going anywhere as traders keep their powder dry for the US key economic data later this week. Meanwhile some geopolitical headlines on easing tariffs are off-setted by headlines from China or other countries in response to the Trump administration. When looking at US data, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey could be the first real sign that the US economic performance will start to deteriorate, calling for quick interest rate cuts from the Fed, and a weaker US Dollar before US economic numbers recover again. On the upside, the DXY’s first resistance comes in at 100.22, which supported the DXY back in September 2024, with a break back above the 100.00 round level as a bullish signal. A firm recovery would be a return to 101.90, which acted as a pivotal level throughout December 2023 and again as a base for the inverted head-and-shoulders formation during the summer of 2024.On the other hand, the 97.73 support could quickly be tested on any substantial bearish headline. Further below, a relatively thin technical support comes in at 96.94 before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

14:13 USD edges firmer on the day – Scotiabank
The USD is tracking a little higher on the day so far, reversing some of yesterday’s losses, following news that President Trump will make some concessions on auto tariffs due to come into effect on May 3rd.

The USD is tracking a little higher on the day so far, reversing some of yesterday’s losses, following news that President Trump will make some concessions on auto tariffs due to come into effect on May 3rd. Some levies on foreign auto parts will be lifted and imported vehicles will not be subject to separate steel and aluminum tariffs. DXY gains through 99.25 may allow the index to run a little higher but a more sustainable rebound needs to push above recent peaks and resistance at 99.85, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD gains marginally as US makes some auto tariff concessions"The global risk mood has strengthened marginally; US Treasurys are a little softer while European government bonds are broadly higher. The CHF and JPY are underperforming, reflecting the general risk tone across asset markets. There is no sign of progress elsewhere on tariffs, however, and that will curb the markets’ reaction to developments in the auto sector. Comments on social media suggest US/Japan talks are stalled while GOP politicians are concerned that the growth/inflation impact of tariffs is starting to be felt on Main St. Overall, the USD tone remains soft." "Price action yesterday was weak for the USD generally as US yields drifted. Yesterday’s Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index data showed the sector plunging to its weakest level since May 2020. Orders and shipments weakened notably in the April survey while Prices Paid and Prices Received rose significantly. Outlook data also weakened significantly and the contributing comments from participants made it clear that tariffs were a significant factor in the very downbeat assessment. Both the Philly and Dallas surveys weakened sharply in April, after rising strongly at the start of the year." More data is needed but the stagflationary tone of the Dallas report will add to concerns about economic prospects, with no sign that trade friction will ease in a meaningful way any time soon. US data releases today include the Advance March Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, JOLTS and Consumer Confidence data. There are some meaningful data releases this evening; Japan releases Retail Sales and Industrial Production numbers. China’s April PMIs are expected to weaken. Australian Q1 CPI is expected to show a hefty 0.8% rise in the quarter but slow a tenth to 2.3% in the year."

14:09 GBP/USD pulls back after multi-month high – BBH
GBP/USD slipped from recent highs as UK retail price data confirmed ongoing deflation in shop prices, despite a pickup in food inflation.

GBP/USD slipped from recent highs as UK retail price data confirmed ongoing deflation in shop prices, despite a pickup in food inflation. With services inflation easing and economic risks mounting, the Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 25bps next week, with markets anticipating a full percentage point of easing over the coming year, BBH FX analysts report. UK shop prices still in deflation despite food price rise"GBP/USD retreated from yesterday’s multi-month high at 1.3444. UK retail outlet price pressure still in deflation. The BRC shop price index fell -0.1% y/y in April (consensus: -0.2%) vs. -0.4% in March. The breakdown showed food price inflation quickening while the decline in non-food prices eased.""The Bank of England (BOE) has room to resume easing policy next month because downside risk to the UK economy is growing and services inflation is cooling. Markets have fully priced-in a 25bps rate cut at the next May 8 meeting and 100bps of total easing over the next 12 months."

14:08 USD/CAD: US auto tariffs & Canadian election result in focus – MUFG
The US Dollar has strengthened modestly overnight against other G10 currencies as it continues to consolidate at lower levels following the heavy sell-off during this month.

The US Dollar has strengthened modestly overnight against other G10 currencies as it continues to consolidate at lower levels following the heavy sell-off during this month. The USD has been supported in part by further reports overnight that the Trump administration is considering easing tariff plans, MUFG's FX analyst Lee Hardman reports. USD firms modestly on tariff easing hopes"Bloomberg has reported that President Trump is on track to ease the impact of his auto tariffs, with changes sought by the industry that would lift some levies on foreign parts for cars and trucks made inside the US. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick described the deal as 'a major victory for the president’s trade policy by rewarding companies who manufacture domestically while providing runway to manufacturers who have expressed their commitment to invest in America and expand their domestic manufacturing'." "In other news overnight, it has been reported that the Liberal Party led by Mark Carney has won re-election in Canada. It concludes a sharp turn around in fortunes for the Liberal Party who were well behind in the polls when former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned. The Canadian Dollar initially strengthened after it was announced that the Liberal Party had won resulting in USD/CAD falling to a low overnight of 1.3809 but the pair has since risen back to up towards 1.3870 as it became clear that they may not win a majority.""Prime Minister Carney stated that if he won re-election, he will seek talks with President Trump that are comprehensive, ambitious, and respect Canada’s sovereignty with the USMCA trade deal scheduled to be reviewed in July of next year. The Canadian dollar has already staged a strong rebound over the past month after Canada alongside Mexico were hit less than feared by President Trump’s Liberation day tariff plans and the US dollar weakened more broadly resulting in USD/CAD dropping back towards the 1.3800-level from closer to the 1.4400-level. "

13:54 Incoming US data to keep the pressure on the USD – DBS
The DXY Index depreciated by 0.5% to 98.9 overnight after failing to push above 100 in the past three sessions. The Fed has entered a blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

The DXY Index depreciated by 0.5% to 98.9 overnight after failing to push above 100 in the past three sessions. The Fed has entered a blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Expect US President Donald Trump to complain about Fed Chair Jerome Powell again when the committee maintains rates at 4.50% for the third consecutive meeting. Trump’s inability to refrain from interference was evident in his call for Canadians to vote for the '51st State' during their federal election on April 28, DBS' FX analyst Philip Wee reports. DXY retreats from 100"Today, consensus will likely be wrong-footed in expecting the US trade deficit to narrow to USD145bn in March from USD147.8bn in February. The Atlanta GDPNow model only started predicting in March that US GDP could contract in 1Q25 from a frontloading of imports to beat Trump’s tariff announcement on Liberation Day (April 3). The same could be said for tomorrow’s advance estimate for 1Q25 GDP growth, which consensus expects will still be positive at an annualized 0.3% QoQ saar vs. 2.4% in 4Q24." "The expectation for today’s US Conference Board consumer confidence index to decline to 88 in April from 92.9 in February should align with the shocking stock market sell-off triggered by Trump’s tariffs. Expect consumers to worry more about emptying supermarket shelves raising prices and mortified businesses slowing investment and hiring plans. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls are expected to slow to 134k in April from 228k in March. However, consensus sees tomorrow’s PCE inflation slowing to 2.2% YoY in March from 2.5% in February, as businesses have not yet factored in the larger-than-expected tariffs announced on Liberation Day." "US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants to push the bill to extend Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) by Independence Day (July 4). He may announce a new X-date by the end of this week or next week and advocate increasing the federal debt ceiling by USD 4-5 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the Treasury could exhaust its borrowing authority around August-September, while the Bipartisan Policy Centre estimated a broader window between mid-July and early October."

13:49 EUR/USD holds steady around 1.1400 – BBH
EUR/USD is range-bound around 1.1400, BBH FX analysts report, BBH FX analysts report.

EUR/USD is range-bound around 1.1400, BBH FX analysts report, BBH FX analysts report. Bessent's remarks highlight pressure on ECB policy"Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expected the ECB to cut rates 'to get the Euro back down'. The ECB does not target the exchange rate as a policy goal. However, the exchange rate plays an important role in achieving the ECB’s primary objective of price stability over the medium term.""From that perspective, the recent appreciation in EUR will further cool inflation in the Eurozone and support the case for additional ECB policy rate cuts. The swaps market price-in a total of 66bps of ECB easing over the next 12 months that would see the policy rate bottom between 1.50% and 1.75%.""Overall, EUR/USD has likely entered a short-term period of consolidation after overshooting the levels implied by nominal and real EU-US 2-year bond yield spreads."

13:44 AUD/USD corrects to near 0.6400 as US Dollar steadies
The AUD/USD pair retraces to near 0.6400 during European trading hours on Tuesday from an over four-month high of 0.6450 posted earlier in the day.

12:51 EUR/USD ticks lower despite uncertainty over US-China trade
EUR/USD edges lower to near 1.1400 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The major currency pair ticks lower as the US Dollar (USD) steadies, but remains broadly on edge amid escalating uncertainty about the trade outlook between the United States (US) and China.

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The major currency pair ticks lower as the US Dollar (USD) steadies, but remains broadly on edge amid escalating uncertainty about the trade outlook between the United States (US) and China. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks up to near 99.20 but trades inside Monday’s trading range.The comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that China should be the one to initiate trade talks with the US have increased investors’ doubts about whether trade discussions are underway. “I believe that it’s up to China to de-escalate, because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, Bessent said in an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Monday. Meanwhile, contradictory statements from US President Donald Trump and Beijing about Chinese President Xi Jinping calling Trump to discuss terms and conditions on trade have also diminished hopes of a resolution of the US-China trade war in the near term.Donald Trump has been insisting that China’s Xi has called him several times to discuss bilateral trade since the imposition of higher tariffs on Beijing. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry continues to deny any economic and trade discussions between Trump and Xi.Apart from comments from the White House on US-China trade talks, a slew of US economic data will influence action in the US Dollar this week. Investors will pay close attention to the preliminary Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), ADP Employment Change and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April, and Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for March, which will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.In Tuesday’s American session, investors will focus on the US JOLTS Job Openings data for March, which is expected to show that employers posted 7.5 million job offers, marginally lower than 7.56 million seen in February.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD drops as Euro trades with cautionA mild downside move in the EUR/USD pair is also driven by a slight selling pressure in the Euro (EUR), with European Central Bank (ECB) officials expressing the need for more interest rate cuts. On Monday, ECB policymaker and Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn supported the need for further monetary policy expansion and expressed concerns about deepening risks to Eurozone inflation undershooting the central bank’s target of 2% in the face of Trump’s tariffsRehn didn’t rule out the possibility of interest rates sliding below the neutral rate. "We must analyse all options with an open mind and not a priori rule out rate cuts below the neutral rate,” Rehn said at an event, Reuters reported.Separately, ECB official and Governor of the Bank of France François Villeroy de Galhau also emphasized the need for more interest rate cuts amid fears that Trump’s tariff policy could lead to an economic slowdown. “We still have room to lower interest rates," Villeroy de Galhau said after expressing confidence that inflation will return to the 2% target in a radio interview on Monday, Reuters reported.For more cues on the ECB’s monetary policy outlook, investors look to the Eurozone’s flash Q1 GDP and the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for April, which will be released on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.Meanwhile, Spain's GDP data for the January-March period has come in weaker than expected. The economy rose by 0.6% in the first quarter, missing expectations of 0.7% and the prior release of 0.8%. The Spain HICP data grew steadily by 2.2% year-on-year in April. On month, the inflation data rose at a moderate pace of 0.6%, compared to 0.7% growth seen in March.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD slips to near 1.1400EUR/USD trades lower around 1.1400 in Tuesday’s European session. The outlook of the major currency pair remains bullish as the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is sloping higher around 1.0890.The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs to overbought levels above 70.00 in the weekly chart, which indicates a strong bullish momentum, but chances of some correction cannot be ruled out.Looking up, the psychological level of 1.1500 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the July 2023 high of 1.1276 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

12:32 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:30 Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 2.55% in April from previous 2.91%
Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 2.55% in April from previous 2.91%

12:30 Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous -0.07% to -0.83% in April
Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous -0.07% to -0.83% in April

12:26 USD/CNH fails to sustain break above 7.37 – Société Générale
USD/CNH's attempt to break above key resistance at 7.37 lost traction, with the pair retreating sharply after hitting 7.43. Now trading below its 50-day moving average, the currency risks further losses unless it can reclaim 7.32 in the short term, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

USD/CNH's attempt to break above key resistance at 7.37 lost traction, with the pair retreating sharply after hitting 7.43. Now trading below its 50-day moving average, the currency risks further losses unless it can reclaim 7.32 in the short term, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Resistance at 7.43 halts upward momentum"USD/CNH attempted a break beyond crucial graphical hurdle of 7.37 earlier this month, however, the upward momentum failed to regain. The pair faced strong resistance at 7.43 and quickly re-integrated within previous range. It has now dipped below the 50-DMA." "Last week high of 7.32 is short-term hurdle. Inability to overcome this can result in persistence of down move towards March low of 7.21/7.20 and 7.18."

12:24 Gold consolidates as tariff fears start to fade
Gold price (XAU/USD) is entering a consolidation phase and is trading in a more narrow range day by day, currently trading around $3,315 at the time of writing on Tuesday.

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Traders brace for key US economic data that could influence the Fed’s rate path. Despite more bearish elements starting to accumulate, traders still advise keeping Gold positioning. Gold price (XAU/USD) is entering a consolidation phase and is trading in a more narrow range day by day, currently trading around $3,315 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The consolidation comes as traders and markets tweak their positioning in the precious metal ahead of a possible announcement by United States (US) President Donald Trump on car tariffs. The rumor in markets is that Trump will ease auto tariffs, which would reduce demand for Gold and ease trade tensions, Bloomberg reports. US economic data will be the second driver this week, which will become important after the Texas Federal Reserve (Fed) Manufacturing Activity Tracker. The widely followed measure weakened significantly as participants expressed their current sentiment with words like “chaos” and “insanity”, in order to describe the turmoil spurred by Trump’s tariffs, the Dallas Fed report mentioned, according to Bloomberg. Daily digest market movers: Swamped with tariff and Fed headlinesUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Monday that the US has put China on hold for now as it seeks trade deals with between 15 and 17 other countries, while indicating it’s up to Beijing to take the first step in de-escalating the tariff fight, Reuters reports.On Monday, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for April fell to -35.8, coming from -16.3. The negative doubling plunge in the sentiment index takes the indicator to levels not seen since the pandemic took place, Reuters reports. This could be one of the data points this week, together with the upcoming preliminary US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter due on Wednesday and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print on Friday, for the Federal Reserve to assess its policy decision for the meeting on May 7. China is pushing back hard against the US with the People’s Daily, the flagship newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, saying in a commentary Tuesday morning that the US should stop its wrongdoing of imposing tariffs. Foreign Minister Wang Yi also said if nations choose to remain silent, compromise and retreat, it will only lead to the bullies making further advances, Bloomberg reports.Gold Price Technical Analysis: The balance is brokenTo keep your hedge or not to keep it, that is the question. Clearly, the Gold rally is stalling and is starting to show signs of fatigue with traders booking profits and reducing their exposures as more and more headlines come out that the Trump administration is starting to reduce its aggressive tariffs regime, for example, with the car parts exemptions. Though, can the US ease off that much if its main competitor and reason for these tariffs, China, is unwilling to come to the table? The daily Pivot Point at $3,322 has been tested this morning, though, for now, it tries to hold price action. From there, it is quite a stretch to $3,375 before hitting the R1 resistance. The R2 resistance at $3,406 is a near-implausible level to reach this Tuesday, as this consolidation is not yet due for a breakout. On the downside, the S1 support is providing a cushion at $3,290. Further down, the technical pivotal floor near $3,245 (April 11 high) comes into play. Finally, the S2 support at $3236 should prevent any further downturn to the pivotal level at $3,167 (April 3 high).XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

12:24 GBP/USD tests key resistance at 1.3430–1.3500 – Société Générale
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is approaching a critical technical zone against the US dollar, challenging last year's high and the top of a long-term ascending channel.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is approaching a critical technical zone against the US dollar, challenging last year's high and the top of a long-term ascending channel. While momentum indicators remain strong, the risk of a short-term pullback is rising if resistance near 1.3500 proves difficult to breach, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Support seen near 1.3230 if pullback occurs"GBP/USD is challenging the peak of last year and the upper limit of an ascending channel drawn since 2023 at 1.3430/1.3500. Daily MACD is at a multiyear high denoting a stretched up-move. This is not a reversal signal, but a brief pullback can’t be ruled out in case the pair fails to establish beyond 1.3430/1.3500." "Recent pivot low of 1.3230 is likely to be an important support near term. Beyond 1.3500, next objectives could be located at projections of 1.3620 and 1.3740/1.3810."

12:21 EUR/JPY holds gains near 162.50, downside seems possible due to ECB’s dovish signals
EUR/JPY gains ground after registering more than 0.50% losses in the previous session, trading around 162.40 during European hours on Tuesday.

12:19 ECB survey: Eurozone Consumer Inflation Expectations rise to 2.9% over next 12 months in March
The latest monthly Consumer Expectations Survey by the European Central Bank showed on Tuesday that Eurozone inflation is seen notably higher for the year ahead in March.

The latest monthly Consumer Expectations Survey by the European Central Bank showed on Tuesday that Eurozone inflation is seen notably higher for the year ahead in March.Key takeawaysInflation expectation over the next 12 months rose 0.3 percentage points in March to 2.9%; the highest level since April 2024Inflation expectations for three years ahead increased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.5%Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months were stable in March at -1.2%

12:11 Liberals secure fourth term; Carney becomes PM – Danske Bank
Early this morning, Canada's Liberal Party secured a fourth consecutive term, with Carney elected Prime Minister, as widely expected, Danske Bank's FX analysts report, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

Early this morning, Canada's Liberal Party secured a fourth consecutive term, with Carney elected Prime Minister, as widely expected, Danske Bank's FX analysts report, Danske Bank's FX analysts report. Carney’s experience and stance on Trump boost appeal "At the time of writing, Liberal candidates have been elected in 150 of 343 seats. However, it is still too soon to ascertain whether the Liberals will form a majority government, with the threshold for a majority at 172 seats." "Carney's triumph is largely driven by his experience as a policymaker, which reassures voters of his ability to guide Canada through a shifting global landscape, and by the perception that he is best suited to confront Trump, in contrast to his Conservative counterpart, Poilievre." "The market reaction has been fairly muted, as this outcome was largely priced in, with tariff uncertainty and the global investment environment acting as the main drivers of the cross currently. In the near term, we expect USD/CAD to tick down to 1.37, given stretched short CAD positioning."

12:06 EUR/USD holds steady amid USD weakness – Danske Bank
EUR/USD remains stable in the 1.13-1.14 range, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

EUR/USD remains stable in the 1.13-1.14 range, Danske Bank's FX analysts report. All G10 currencies gain against the USD in April"So far in April, the US Dollar (USD) has weakened against all G10 currencies, with the Euro (EUR) up more than 5% — notably in an environment where CHF, JPY, and gold have appreciated by 4-7% against the USD." "We discuss how US Treasuries have recovered ground alongside broader risk sentiment. While the future of their reserve asset status will likely remain a key topic in the coming weeks, we highlight that their convenience yield has been absent at the long end of the curve since 2016." "Overall, while policy uncertainty may have peaked, we view the recent relief rally as fragile and continue to favour buying EUR/USD on dips."

12:02 Canadian Liberals likely to win the election – Commerzbank
Based on the latest polls, it should no longer be too surprising that the Canadian Liberals appear to have won the recent election, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

Based on the latest polls, it should no longer be too surprising that the Canadian Liberals appear to have won the recent election, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Slight weakness in the Canadian Dollar this morning is likely"However, the election victory was quite narrow; currently, all indications point to the Liberals, with 155 seats, only narrowly ahead of the Conservatives with 150 seats, meaning both parties fell short of the 172 seats needed for an absolute majority. The slight weakness in the Canadian Dollar this morning is therefore likely due to the fact that the Liberals now need support from smaller parties to push their agenda through Parliament.""The most exciting part of the coming months will be how to tackle Canada's major problems. Will the new Canadian Prime Minister-designate, Mark Carney, manage to work out a new trade deal with Donald Trump? And how will he address the underlying productivity problem of the Canadian real economy?" "The answers to these questions are likely to be crucial for the Canadian Dollar in the coming months. But first, the Liberals can be happy about their astonishing election victory, which was not expected at the beginning of February."

12:02 AUD/JPY climbs to near 91.50 as decreasing safe-haven demand weighs on Japanese Yen
AUD/JPY gains ground after registering more than 0.50% losses in the previous session, trading around 91.50 during the European hours on Tuesday.

12:01 Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator below forecasts (94.5) in April: Actual (93.6)
Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator below forecasts (94.5) in April: Actual (93.6)

12:01 Eurozone Business Climate increased to -0.67 in April from previous -0.73
Eurozone Business Climate increased to -0.67 in April from previous -0.73

12:01 Eurozone Industrial Confidence came in at -11.2 below forecasts (-10.7) in April
Eurozone Industrial Confidence came in at -11.2 below forecasts (-10.7) in April

12:00 Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) climbed from previous 0.2% to 0.4% in 1Q
Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) climbed from previous 0.2% to 0.4% in 1Q

12:00 Eurozone Services Sentiment fell from previous 2.4 to 1.4 in April
Eurozone Services Sentiment fell from previous 2.4 to 1.4 in April

12:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence in line with forecasts (-16.7) in April
Eurozone Consumer Confidence in line with forecasts (-16.7) in April

11:58 Oil slides on weakening demand concerns – ING
Oil prices edged lower in the early trading session today amid concerns that the US-led trade war will hurt energy demand, continuing the declines seen towards the end of yesterday, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Oil prices edged lower in the early trading session today amid concerns that the US-led trade war will hurt energy demand, continuing the declines seen towards the end of yesterday, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Downside risks for oil prices continue to persist"ICE Brent lost almost 1% this morning, with prices moving back towards $65/bbl. The latest release of the US economic data signalled the slowing of the economy, while China pushed back against US tariffs, once again raising trade war concerns between these two countries. Meanwhile, downside risks for oil prices continue to persist as OPEC+ plans to revive production in its upcoming meeting scheduled for next week.""US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said that the country will continue to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserve as current crude oil prices provide an attractive opportunity. The SPR stands at a little over 397m barrels. That’s up from a low of 347m barrels in 2023, but still well below the 656m barrels it stood at in mid-2020. Wright previously said it will take years to fully refill the SPR, requiring $20bn of funding. He further added that he is asking Congress for funding to help fill the reserve faster. Considering the SPR has a capacity of around 700m barrels, this assumes refilling the SPR would cost around $65/bbl.""Recent market reports suggest that several oil refineries across Spain were halted after the country was hit by a power failure on Monday. Moeve said that all its plants in the country had fully stopped working, while another site in Bilbao was also halted. Repsol SA, the majority owner of Petronor, which runs other plants across the country, said all of its refineries were affected. It is reported that sharp fluctuations in power resulted in a network outage across Spain, marking Europe’s worst blackout in years. As per market estimates, Spain operates a significant oil refining system that processed about 1.3m b/d on average last year. Officials are continuing to determine the reason for the outage, while backup plans have already been put in place by utilities."

11:56 USD: A few days of key data ahead – ING
The US Dollar’s underwhelming start of the week served as a reminder that even if the worst of the confidence crisis on the dollar’s reserve value may be past us, markets remain very much minded to link the greenback’s faith with US economic performance.

The US Dollar’s underwhelming start of the week served as a reminder that even if the worst of the confidence crisis on the dollar’s reserve value may be past us, markets remain very much minded to link the greenback’s faith with US economic performance. A week full of data releases may offer multiple opportunities to re-enter dollar shorts after some positioning rebalancing last week, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.The USD to continue getting tossed around by tariff developments "The much larger drop in the Dallas Fed manufacturing index yesterday suggests a drop to around 45 from 49 looks more likely than the consensus 48 for the ISM manufacturing released on Thursday. Today, expect the dollar’s data sensitivity to remain very elevated as April’s Conference Board consumer confidence and March’s JOLTS job openings data are published. The former was, in previous months, one of the most closely scrutinised pieces of data and regarded as the best forward-looking indicator for the tariff impact on spending. Consumer confidence consensus estimates are rather sparse, centred at a drop from 93 to 88; our call is 86.""On the tariff side, the US administration is expected to implement some car tariff relief measures today. Those shouldn’t go as far as entirely exempting auto parts, which will still face the 25% tariff, but the rules should be modified to prevent paying double tariffs for the likes of steel and aluminium. The White House also announced that auto producers will be refunded up to 3.75% of the value of new cars in the first year.""The dollar has reversed some of its losses after auto-tariff related news, and as US equities found some late-session support. The greenback should continue to be tossed around by tariff developments (which have been USD-positive of late) and evidence of the damage already done to the US economy emerging from data. On balance, the risks are skewed to the downside for the dollar this week."

11:51 Gold under pressure – ING
Gold edges lower in the European session, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Gold edges lower in the European session, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Spot prices are falling almost 1%"Gold edged lower this morning, with spot prices falling almost 1% as market participants continue to focus on new developments in the ongoing US trade negotiations with 17 key trading partners, excluding China. Meanwhile, a decline in US Treasury yields, along with weakness in the dollar, further weighed on gold prices.""However, the extended uncertainty in the US-China trade talks and economic instability should continue to support safe-haven demand for gold. Prices are still up by more than 25% so far this year, supported by market volatility and ever-changing US policies. The rally has also been supported by increased flows into gold ETF holdings and central bank buying."

11:48 Tariff shenanigans weigh on the USD – OCBC
Tariff developments remain fluid even if we are in a de-escalation phase. Trump/Bessent continued to speak about how 'all aspects' of the US government are in contact with China regarding trade even as Beijing denied the existence of negotiations.

Tariff developments remain fluid even if we are in a de-escalation phase. Trump/Bessent continued to speak about how 'all aspects' of the US government are in contact with China regarding trade even as Beijing denied the existence of negotiations. It appears that the US is still waiting for China to make the first official move to de-escalate. DXY was last at 99.13 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. The recent low at 98 is key"In an overnight interview with CNBC, Bessent said 'As I’ve repeatedly said, I believe it’s up to China to de-escalate because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, so these 125% tariffs are unsustainable'. He also added that 'the Chinese exempting some goods from tariffs indicates they are interested in reducing tensions'. Bessent further said that he has 'an escalation ladder in my back pocket and we’re very anxious not to have to use it… Escalation could include an embargo'." "This implies that safe-haven proxies, including JPY, CHF and gold may strengthen at the expense of further USD sell-off. Bearish momentum on daily chart faded but recent rise in RSI has slowed and started to exhibit signs of falling. Renewed USD softness cannot be ruled out. More importantly, the recent lows at 98 levels is key. Decisive break below may open another round of decline for DXY. Next support at 97.50, 96.90 levels before 95.50. Resistance at 99.80, 100.80/101 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 peak to trough, 21 DMA)." "This morning, USD traded mixed with strength pronounced against CHF, NZD and precious metals but USD traded softer vs. AxJ FX. In particular, RMB-proxy THB and MYR led gains. Firmer RMB, following the lower-than-expected USD/CNY daily fix (lowest since 7 Apr), chatters of Chinese exporters increasing the pace of USD conversion to RMB and mild USD softness were some of the triggers. Elsewhere, we caution that month-end USD rebalancing flows this week may also distort FX price action."

11:43 CAD: Carney projected to lead minority government – ING
Canadian media projects that the Liberal party has won the general election, and Mark Carney has been confirmed as prime minister. The results have, however, been much narrower than implied by polls. Liberals are currently projected at 167 parliament seats, short of the 172 majority.

Canadian media projects that the Liberal party has won the general election, and Mark Carney has been confirmed as prime minister. The results have, however, been much narrower than implied by polls. Liberals are currently projected at 167 parliament seats, short of the 172 majority. That would mean that, as in the previous legislature, they will need to bring the New Democratic Party (7 projected seats) into a coalition government, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notesUSD/CAD remains below 1.390 and is primarily driven by US events"As we had anticipated, the Canadian dollar is not liking the news of a minority Liberal win, as markets had likely priced a majority government as the baseline scenario. A thin parliament lead is hardly positive news for a country’s currency, but CAD losses have been quite limited in size. USD/CAD remains below 1.390 and is still primarily driven by US events and the USD leg.""In terms of longer-term implications, Carney has pledged to fight US President Donald Trump harshly on tariffs, and his closer ties with European countries could emerge as an obstacle in trade talks along the way. Ultimately, the crucial issue remains renegotiating the USMCA early. The Conservatives had more explicitly signalled their intention to do so. Carney might take his time, although his explicit intention remains to sit at the negotiating table and end the US-Canada tariff war.""We retain a broadly flat USD/CAD view for now, as the correlation between the two currencies has re-strengthened and observed volatility has meaningfully lagged those of other USD crosses. We expect most trading into the summer to happen within the 1.37-1.40 range, and we target 1.39 for the end of the second quarter."

11:39 Stagflation fears rise as US manufacturing slumps – Commerzbank
The Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Activity Indicator delivered more bad news yesterday. At roughly -36, it was almost 19 points worse than expected. New orders plummeted significantly, while prices paid rose significantly. No wonder that the US dollar came under pressure again yesterday.

The Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Activity Indicator delivered more bad news yesterday. At roughly -36, it was almost 19 points worse than expected. New orders plummeted significantly, while prices paid rose significantly. No wonder that the US dollar came under pressure again yesterday. In line with this, Bloomberg recently published the results of its April survey of economists, and the findings are likely to have further heightened US stagflation concerns, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Asian trade diversion may strain US relations"Imports from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam collectively overtook imports from China at the beginning of 2023. Will the governments of these four countries allow companies to increasingly ship goods through their countries? This seems questionable to me, as this would further increase these countries' current account surpluses in trade with the US and complicate any potential deals with the US. And Trump is unlikely to be in a position to turn a blind eye to such shifts in trade flows this time." "Donald Trump never tires of emphasizing that China must bear the costs of the tariffs and repeatedly suggests that the supposedly enormous revenue could even be used to reduce US income taxes. The subcomponents of the sentiment indicators suggest that it won't be quite so simple. Rather, US consumers will likely also have to bear a large portion of the price increases.""The Fed is likely to have a much tougher time than in previous years. Other central banks can focus more on the real economy in light of the positive supply shock in their countries, while the Fed must master the balancing act between inflation and the real economy. It would certainly help if the upcoming hard data (JOLTS labor market data today, first-quarter growth tomorrow, payrolls on Friday) remained strong for a while. But I wouldn't bet on it."

11:30 Portugal Business Confidence down to 2.2 in April from previous 2.4
Portugal Business Confidence down to 2.2 in April from previous 2.4

11:30 Portugal Consumer Confidence fell from previous -16 to -17.9 in April
Portugal Consumer Confidence fell from previous -16 to -17.9 in April

11:18 EUR/USD: Watch price action – OCBC
Euro (EUR) drifted lower after rising to >3Y high of 1.1570 levels last week. De-escalation in tariff angst somewhat slowed USD’s decline and helped to moderate the pace of rally in EUR. EUR was last seen at 1.1390 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Euro (EUR) drifted lower after rising to >3Y high of 1.1570 levels last week. De-escalation in tariff angst somewhat slowed USD’s decline and helped to moderate the pace of rally in EUR. EUR was last seen at 1.1390 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. 2-way trades are likely"To add, ECB rhetoric also turned more dovish. ECB’s Villeroy said that inflation risks seem to have abated, and that ECB can respond quickly to new data. Rehn said that he sees downside risks to the region’s inflation outlook and that the value of EUR is important in assessing policy. He earlier added that ECB should keep lowering interest rate at its next meeting in June if forecasts show eurozone inflation falling below the ECB’s 2% target. He also said that ECB should not rule out larger interest rate cuts. Knot also said that 'In the short term, it’s 100% clear that the demand shock will dominate, so inflation will go down'." "ECB Chief Economist Lane said that there is no reason to say that a 25bp move is always the default although he would not pre-commit to any rate path. He also warned that EUR’s strength is weighing on the region’s economic recovery via disinflation. On the other hand, Kazaks said ECB should only lower rates into accommodative territory if growth outlook deteriorates much further. He added that while US tariff policies may slow down inflation and even cause a recession, visibility about the next developments is low and cutting too much would squander policy space." "Daily momentum is flat while recent decline in RSI showed tentative signs of slowing. 2-way trades likely as we watch for signs of breakout/rejection. Resistance at 1.1490, 1.1570 levels (recent high). Decisive break out of recent high should see another leg higher in EUR towards 1.17 levels. However, failure to break out may point to an interim bearish reversal (as head and shoulders pattern may play out). Support at 1.1280, 1.1200/35 (21 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 low to high) before 1.11, 1.1030 levels (38.2% fibo)."

11:13 EUR: Losing some shine – ING
The euro has lost some momentum as the go-to European currency amid US Dollar (USD) outflows. Since the start of the week, it has been outperformed by all other G10 currencies except for USD, CAD and NZD.

The euro has lost some momentum as the go-to European currency amid US Dollar (USD) outflows. Since the start of the week, it has been outperformed by all other G10 currencies except for USD, CAD and NZD. There is a possibility that massive power outages in Spain and Portugal (now resolved) affected the euro on the crosses, although there are broader considerations to be made too, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. EUR/USD to potentially re-test 1.15"The option market positioning suggests the euro is the most overbought currency at the moment. That is probably a more accurate indicator than CFTC figures, which focus more on speculative short-term flows and suggest the yen net-longs are much larger. This must be weighed against macro and rates evidence that isn’t supportive for the euro. There is a risk that the increased focus on the tariff impact on the US and the boost in optimism from German fiscal stimulus may have disaccustomed markets with the narrative of soft eurozone activity.""Incidentally, the European Central Bank has sounded rather dovish of late. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the ECB will keep cutting rates to weaken the euro. Even if that is not the primary goal, it would surely be a welcome side effect for tariff-hit eurozone exporters. After all, a stronger trade-weighted euro is disinflationary and allows the ECB to err on the dovish side.""EUR/USD has dropped back just below 1.140 at the time of writing this morning. We could see some stabilisation around these levels, or even some additional pressure on the pair before US data comes into the equation later today. Ahead of that, we think risks are tilted to another leg higher and potentially re-testing 1.150 in EUR/USD, even if the euro may not shine in the crosses."

11:06 Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) dipped from previous 3.8% to -0.4% in February
Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) dipped from previous 3.8% to -0.4% in February

11:06 Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY): -1.5% (February) vs previous 1.7%
Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY): -1.5% (February) vs previous 1.7%

11:03 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Finds psychological support at 0.5950 near nine-day EMA
The NZD/USD pair remains subdued after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 0.5970 during European hours on Tuesday.

11:02 Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) fell from previous 3.8% to 3.7% in March
Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) fell from previous 3.8% to 3.7% in March

11:01 Italy Business Confidence: 85.7 (April) vs previous 86
Italy Business Confidence: 85.7 (April) vs previous 86

11:00 Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) increased to 1.7% in March from previous 1.5%
Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) increased to 1.7% in March from previous 1.5%

11:00 Italy Consumer Confidence fell from previous 95 to 92.7 in April
Italy Consumer Confidence fell from previous 95 to 92.7 in April

11:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) came in at 3.6% below forecasts (4.1%) in March
Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) came in at 3.6% below forecasts (4.1%) in March

11:00 JOLTS job openings expected to ease in March before key employment report release
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The publication will provide data about the change in the number of job openings in March, alongside the number of layoffs and quits.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US JOLTS data will be watched closely ahead of the release of the April employment report on Friday.Job openings are forecast to edge lower to 7.5 million in March.The state of the labor market is a key factor for Fed officials when setting policy.The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The publication will provide data about the change in the number of job openings in March, alongside the number of layoffs and quits.JOLTS data is scrutinized by market participants and Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers because it can provide valuable insights into the supply-demand dynamics in the labor market, a key factor impacting salaries and inflation. Job openings have been declining steadily since reaching 12 million in March 2022, indicating a steady cooldown in labor market conditions. In January, the number of job openings came in above 7.7 million before declining below 7.6 million in February. What to expect in the next JOLTS report?Markets expect job openings to retreat to 7.5 million on the last business day of March. With the growing uncertainty surrounding the potential impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade policy on the economic and inflation outlook, Federal Reserve policymakers have been voicing their concerns over a cooldown in the labor market. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said last week that he is worried that businesses could start laying workers off because of the uncertainty caused by trade frictions. On a similar note, Fed Governor Christopher Waller told Bloomberg that he would not be surprised to see more layoffs and higher unemployment. “Easiest place to offset tariff costs is by cutting payrolls,” Waller explained.It is important to note that the JOLTS report refers to the end of March, while the official Employment report, which will be released on Friday, measures data for April. Regardless of the lagging nature of the JOLTS data, a significant decline in the number of job openings could feed into fears over a weakening labor market. In this scenario, the US Dollar (USD) is likely to come under renewed selling pressure with the immediate reaction.On the flip side, a sharp increase, with a reading above 8 million, could suggest that the labor market remains relatively stable. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets don’t expect the Fed to cut the policy rate at the next policy meeting in May, while pricing in a nearly 60% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) reduction in June. Hence, the market positioning suggests that a positive surprise could support the USD by causing investors to lean toward another policy hold after May. Related news The Dollar on the cliff — Will NFP be the push or the lifeline? USD: Will the nonfarm payrolls report support expectations for Fed cuts? – MUFG The week ahead: Tech earnings, elections, and Payrolls When will the JOLTS report be released and how could it affect EUR/USD?Job opening numbers will be published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shares his technical outlook for EUR/USD:“EUR/USD clings to a bullish stance but loses momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart declining to the 60 region. On the downside, the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the February-May uptrend and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) forms a key support area at 1.1230-1.1200 ahead of 1.1050 (Fibonacci 38.% retracement) and 1.1000 (static level, round level).”“Looking north, the first resistance level could be spotted at 1.1400 (static level) before 1.1500 (round level, static level) and 1.1575 (April 21 high).” Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.

10:46 Pound Sterling ticks lower as traders continue to favor BoE dovish bets
The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges lower against its major peers on Tuesday in the European session. The British currency ticks down as traders become increasingly confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will reduce interest rates in the May policy meeting.

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The British currency ticks down as traders become increasingly confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will reduce interest rates in the May policy meeting. The reasons behind these accelerating BoE’s dovish bets are easing United Kingdom (UK) inflation expectations and heightened global economic tensions.Officials from central banks across the globe have signaled that the impact of protectionist policies imposed by Washington will be net disinflationary for their economies, assuming that domestic companies – and particularly Chinese companies – will be forced to sell their products in other markets at lower rates in the face of higher tariffs from the US.On Friday, BoE policymaker Megan Greene also indicated that the potential trade war will be “net disinflationary” for the economy in a discussion with the Atlantic Council think tank. Greene also expressed concerns over “weak productivity” and “risks to the labor market” due to an increase in employers’ contributions to social security schemes. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling retraces against US DollarThe Pound Sterling corrects marginally to near 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Tuesday from its fresh three-year high of 1.3445 posted earlier in the day. The GBP/USD pair retraces as the US Dollar steadies, with investors awaiting a slew of United States (US) economic data releases.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades inside Monday’s range at around 99.20.This week, investors will pay close attention to labor market-related, ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), and Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data to get cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.The major highlight of the week is expected to be the ISM Manufacturing PMI data, which will indicate the impact of the tariff policy announced by US President Donald Trump on the input cost and how much factory owners are willing to pass on to consumers. Signs of increasing selling prices by factory owners would accelerate consumer inflation expectations. Such a scenario would be a limiting factor for the Federal Reserve (Fed) in reducing interest rates.In Tuesday’s session, investors will focus on the US JOLTS Job Openings data for March, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The Job Openings data is expected to show that employers posted 7.5 million jobs, marginally lower than the 7.56 million seen in February.Meanwhile, higher uncertainty over trade relations between the US and China will keep the Greenback on the back foot. A fresh boost to US-China trade uncertainty has come from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has put the responsibility for any progress in bilateral trade on Beijing. “I believe that it’s up to China to de-escalate, because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them,” Bessent said in an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Monday.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling stays above all short-to-long-term EMAsThe Pound Sterling retraces slightly to near 1.3400 against the US Dollar from the three-year high of 1.3445. The overall outlook of the pair remains bullish as all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds after cooling down to 60.00, indicating a resurgence in the upside trend.On the upside, the round level of 1.3600 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the April 3 high around 1.3200 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:39 US Dollar Index maintains position above 99.00 as US-China trade concerns weaken
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is rebounding after falling over 0.50% in the previous session. The DXY is trading around 99.20 during the European hours on Monday.

10:38 China’s Commerce Ministry: If the US wants resolution, it should stop making threats
A Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson said on Tuesday that “if the US wants resolution, it should stop making threats.”

A Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson said on Tuesday that “if the US wants resolution, it should stop making threats.”Additional takeawaysUS should seek dialogue with China on tariffs.Tariffs war was launched by US.

10:15 ECB’s Cipollone: Trade policy uncertainty could reduce business investment
European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Piero Cipollone said that “trade policy uncertainty could reduce business investment.”

10:11 EUR/INR: Indian Rupee cross rates down at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade with a negative bias at the start of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 97.17, with the EUR/INR pair declining from its previous close at 97.26.

10:10 USD/CAD holds gains near 1.3850 as Canadian Liberals fail to secure majority government
USD/CAD has recovered its intraday losses, trading around 1.3840 during early European hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) loses ground following election results in Canada.

10:03 Forex Today: US Dollar holds ground following Monday's choppy action
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 29:

10:01 Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.6% (April) vs previous 0.7%
Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.6% (April) vs previous 0.7%

10:01 Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.6% in April from previous 0.1%
Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.6% in April from previous 0.1%

10:01 Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2%) in April: Actual (2.2%)
Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2%) in April: Actual (2.2%)

10:00 Spain Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (YoY) down to 2.8% in 1Q from previous 3.5%
Spain Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (YoY) down to 2.8% in 1Q from previous 3.5%

10:00 Turkey Economic Confidence Index fell from previous 100.8 to 96.6 in March
Turkey Economic Confidence Index fell from previous 100.8 to 96.6 in March

10:00 Spain Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (QoQ) below forecasts (0.7%) in 1Q: Actual (0.6%)
Spain Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (QoQ) below forecasts (0.7%) in 1Q: Actual (0.6%)

10:00 Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) unchanged at 2.2% in April
Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) unchanged at 2.2% in April

09:59 Palladium price: Rare metals down at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $947.45 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $949.15.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $947.45 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $949.15.In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $990.05 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, also under pressure after the XPT/USD pair settled at $992.25 at the previous close.

09:55 EUR/GBP loses ground below 0.8500, investors await BoE’s Ramsden speech
The EUR/GBP cross extends its downside to near 0.8490 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Euro (EUR) softens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) due to the dovish remarks from the European Central Bank (ECB).

EUR/GBP edges lower to around 0.8490 in Tuesday’s early European session. ECB’s Rehn said the central bank may cut interest rates below the neutral level that keeps the economy in balance.UK Retail Sales rose in March, testing bets of a BoE rate cut in May. The EUR/GBP cross extends its downside to near 0.8490 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Euro (EUR) softens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) due to the dovish remarks from the European Central Bank (ECB). Traders brace for the speech by Bank of England (BoE) official Dave Ramsden later on Tuesday.Earlier this month, the ECB cut the interest rates for the seventh time in a year, warning that US tariffs would negatively impact economic growth. This strengthens the case for additional rate reductions in the coming months and puts the EUR bulls on the defensive. ECB policymaker Olli Rehn said on Monday that the central bank may cut interest rates below the neutral level that keeps the economy in balance.Traders are now pricing around a 75% odds of a June rate cut, up from roughly 60% before the ECB's decision, according to LSEG data. Nonetheless, given that the decision was still more than a month away and economic policy had become unpredictable since Donald Trump's April 2 announcement.

On the GBP’s front, UK Retail Sales rose in March, failing to challenge expectations of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in May amid growing economic uncertainty tied to tariffs. The UK Retail Sales increased 0.4% MoM in March versus a rise of 0.7% prior. This figure came in above the market consensus of a decline of 0.4%. On an annual basis, Retail Sales jumped 2.6% in March compared to a rise of 2.2% prior, better than the estimation of 1.8%. Traders await the BoE’s Dave Ramsden speech later on Tuesday. Any dovish comments from BoE policymakers could undermine the GBP and limit the downside for the cross.

09:10 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.15 per barrel, down from Monday’s close at $61.64.

09:00 Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) dipped from previous 14.4B to 12.8B in March
Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) dipped from previous 14.4B to 12.8B in March

09:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey registered at -20.6 above expectations (-26) in May
Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey registered at -20.6 above expectations (-26) in May

08:30 Canadian PM Carney declares victory in election
Canadian Prime Minister (PM) Mark Carney came out on the wires and declared a victory in the federal election on Tuesday.

08:29 GBP/JPY flat lines below 191.00 mark despite broadly weaker JPY
The GBP/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on its modest Asian session uptick and currently trades just below the 191.00 round-figure mark, nearly unchanged for the day.

08:13 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA barrier near 0.8250
The USD/CHF pair halts its three-day losing streak, trading around 0.8240 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The daily chart analysis indicates a potential bullish shift, as the pair consolidates above the descending channel pattern.

08:11 FX option expiries for Apr 29 NY cut
FX option expiries for Apr 29 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Apr 29 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1125 1.4b1.1200 2b1.1325 1.1bUSD/JPY: USD amounts 143.00 898m144.00 2.8b147.00 2.1bAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6325 403m0.6605 892mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3810 884m1.3825 728m1.3970 728mNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.6025 415mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8385 933m0.8600 831m

07:55 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Remains capped below 1.0400, bullish bias prevails
The EUR/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 1.0375 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Greenback amid rising expectations of further rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) in June and mixed signals on US-China trade relations.

07:45 EUR/CAD remains below 1.5800 after projections show likely minority Carney government
The EUR/CAD cross reverses an Asian session dip to the 1.5755-1.5750 region and jumps to a fresh daily top in the last hour, though it lacks follow-through buying.

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Spot prices remain confined in the previous day's broader range and currently trade around the 1.5780-1.5785 area, nearly unchanged for the day.The Canadian Dollar (CAD) got a minor lift after multiple reports indicated that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party won Canada's federal election and secured a historic fourth term. The initial market reaction, however, fades rather quickly as Carney is set to form the minority government. This, along with the bearish sentiment surrounding Crude Oil prices, undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and assists the EUR/CAD cross to attract some dip-buyers.The US-China trade war continues to dominate the market sentiment amid mixed signals regarding the state of negotiations. Moreover, investors remain worried that ongoing conflict between the world's two largest economies could trigger a global recession and dent fuel demand. Adding to this, several members of OPEC+ reportedly will suggest an acceleration of output hikes for a second consecutive month in June, dragging Oil prices to a nearly two-week low.The shared currency, on the other hand, is pressured by a modest US Dollar (USD) strength and the European Central Bank's (ECB) dovish outlook, which, in turn, caps the upside for the EUR/CAD cross. In fact, the ECB lowered interest rates for the seventh time in a year earlier this month and warned that economic growth will take a big hit from US tariffs. This bolsters the case for further policy easing in the months ahead and keeps the EUR bulls on the defensive. Traders now look forward to the release of the German GfK Consumer Climate Index and Spanish Flash CPI for short-term impetus ahead of the German, French, and Italian CPI prints on Wednesday. Apart from this, the prelim Eurozone GDP report will play a key role in influencing the shared currency and contribute to producing some meaningful trading opportunities around the EUR/CAD cross. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

07:44 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 9,078.38 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,162.60 it cost on Monday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 105,888.50 per tola from INR 106,870.80 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,078.38 10 Grams 90,806.52 Tola 105,888.50 Troy Ounce 282,373.60 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by receding safe-haven demand and a modest USD uptick China's recent moves to exempt certain US goods from its retaliatory tariffs showed a willingness to de-escalate tensions between the world's two largest economies. Moreover, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that many top US trading partners have made "very good" tariff proposals. Signs of trade progress support the upbeat market mood. Meanwhile, the US Dollar regains traction and drives flows away from the safe-haven Gold price. Investors, however, remain on the edge on the back of mixed signals regarding the state of negotiations between the US and China. In fact, US President Donald Trump said last week that trade talks with China were underway, though China has denied that any tariff negotiations were taking place. Meanwhile, traders expect the Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle in June. Moreover, the current market pricing indicates the possibility of at least three rate cuts by the end of this year. Lower borrowing costs could help the non-yielding yellow metal to maintain a floor in the near term. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a 72-hour unilateral ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict from May 8, though Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the three-day truce. Moreover, North Korea's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play. Traders now look forward to the release of the US JOLTS Job Openings data for some impetus later this Tuesday. Apart from this, US Personal Consumption Expenditures on Wednesday, and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday could provide a fresh insight into the Fed's policy outlook. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:21 Gold price slides back closer to $3,300 amid tariff deals optimism
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the vicinity of the $3,265-3,260 pivotal support and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday.

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Despite mixed signals from the US and China, investors remain hopeful over the potential de-escalation of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. Furthermore, signs of progress in tariff negotiations add to the optimism, which, in turn, is seen weighing on the precious metal.Adding to this the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) dip buying exerts some downward pressure on the Gold price. Investors, meanwhile, remain on the edge amid the high risk of a global recession on the back of the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's trade policies. This, along with persistent geopolitical tensions and prospects for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), might further contribute to limiting the downside for the non-yielding yellow metal.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by receding safe-haven demand and a modest USD uptickChina's recent moves to exempt certain US goods from its retaliatory tariffs showed a willingness to de-escalate tensions between the world's two largest economies. Moreover, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that many top US trading partners have made "very good" tariff proposals. Signs of trade progress support the upbeat market mood. Meanwhile, the US Dollar regains traction and drives flows away from the safe-haven Gold price. Investors, however, remain on the edge on the back of mixed signals regarding the state of negotiations between the US and China. In fact, US President Donald Trump said last week that trade talks with China were underway, though China has denied that any tariff negotiations were taking place.Meanwhile, traders expect the Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle in June. Moreover, the current market pricing indicates the possibility of at least three rate cuts by the end of this year. Lower borrowing costs could help the non-yielding yellow metal to maintain a floor in the near term.Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a 72-hour unilateral ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict from May 8, though Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the three-day truce. Moreover, North Korea's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play. Traders now look forward to the release of the US JOLTS Job Openings data for some impetus later this Tuesday. Apart from this, US Personal Consumption Expenditures on Wednesday, and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday could provide a fresh insight into the Fed's policy outlook.Gold price bears need to wait for acceptance below the 38.2% Fibo. and a breakdown through $3,265-3,260 supportWeakness below the $3,300-3,290 area, representing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest leg up from the vicinity of mid-$2,900s or the monthly swing low, might continue to find decent support near the $3,265-3,260 horizontal zone. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for an extension of the recent pullback from the all-time peak touched last week. The subsequent downfall could drag the Gold price to the 50% retracement level, around the $3,225 region, en route to the $3,200 mark. On the flip side, the $3,348-3,353 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate hurdle. This is closely followed by the $3,366-3,368 supply zone, which if cleared decisively should allow the Gold price to reclaim the $3,400 mark. The momentum could extend further toward the $3,425-3,427 intermediate hurdle before bulls make a fresh attempt to conquer the $3,500 psychological mark. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

07:11 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds losses near $33.00 as demand for metals weakens
Silver price (XAG/USD) is depreciating after registering gains in the previous day, trading around $33.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The safe-haven demand for precious metals, including Silver, continues to weaken as trade-war concerns ease.

06:34 NZD/USD falls to near 0.5950 due to shifting US-China trade signals
NZD/USD is retracing its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 0.5960 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) is finding support as optimism grows over easing US-China trade tensions.

05:56 WTI struggles near $61.75 area, over one-week low amid demand concerns
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle for a firm intraday direction during the Asian session on Tuesday and oscillate in a narrow band around the $61.75 area, just above a one-and-half-week low touched the previous day.

05:54 USD/INR softens on steady FII inflows, positive US-India trade talks
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its upside on Tuesday after logging its best day in more than two weeks in the previous session. The positive developments surrounding US-India trade talks provide some support to the local currency.

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Investors await the US April Consumer Confidence and March JOLTS Job Openings report, which are due later on Tuesday. The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its upside on Tuesday after logging its best day in more than two weeks in the previous session. The positive developments surrounding US-India trade talks provide some support to the local currency. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that many top trading partners of the US had made 'very good' proposals to avert US tariffs, and one of the first deals to be signed would likely be with India. Furthermore, foreign investors have stepped up buying of Indian stocks over the last week, a reversal from the selling pressure witnessed earlier in the month. This, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the Indian Rupee. Nonetheless, the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand due to softening tensions between the United States and China might weigh on the Indian currency. Additionally, concerns over geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan might contribute to the INR’s downside.The US April Consumer Confidence and March JOLTS Job Openings report will be released later on Tuesday. All eyes will be on the preliminary reading of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) on Wednesday ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is due later on Friday. Indian Rupee gains momentum as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continue to buy equities The ceasefire violation along the Line of Control (LoC) came days after the Pahalgam terror attack, which killed 26 people, mostly tourists, in the Baisaran valley near Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that the US government is in contact with China but that it’s up to Beijing to take the first step in de-escalating the tariff fight with the US due to the imbalance of trade between the two nations."Vice President Vance was in India last week and talked about substantial progress. I have mentioned that the negotiations with the Republic of Korea have gone very well, and I think we've had some very substantial negotiations with our Japanese allies," said Bessent.US President Donald Trump plans to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs by preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking with other tariffs and easing levies on foreign parts used in car manufacturing, per the Wall Street Journal. Those actions are expected tomorrow.The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% in the policy meeting on May 6-7, according to the CME FedWatch tool. USD/INR remains bearish under the key 100-day EMAThe Indian Rupee edges higher on the day. The USD/INR pair keeps the bearish vibe, with the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The path of least resistance is to the downside as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands below the midline near 37.00.A bearish break from the lower limit of the descending trend channel of 84.80 could drag USD/INR toward 84.22, the low of November 25, 2024. Sustained trading below the mentioned level could expose 84.08, the low of November 6, 2024.On the other hand, the crucial resistance level emerges at 85.80, the 100-day EMA. A decisive break above this level could pick up more momentum and aim for 86.35, the upper boundary of the trend channel. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:43 USD/CAD depreciates to near 1.3800 as Canadian Dollar gains on early election outcome
The USD/CAD pair remains under pressure for the second straight session, hovering around 1.3820 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The pair weakens as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains modestly, supported by early election results in Canada.

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The pair weakens as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains modestly, supported by early election results in Canada.According to projections by CTV News and CBC, Canada's ruling Liberal Party has retained power following Monday’s election, although it remains uncertain whether they will secure a majority. Prime Minister Mark Carney had sought a strong mandate to manage US President Donald Trump's tariffs and annexation threats. However, CBC reported that the Liberals had yet to secure the 172 seats needed for a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons.The final outcome may take time to confirm, particularly as results from British Columbia, where polls closed last, could prove decisive. Meanwhile, the right-leaning Conservative Party showed a stronger-than-expected performance, advocating for change after more than nine years of Liberal leadership. If Carney ends up leading a minority government, he will need to negotiate with other parties to maintain power — a situation that historically results in Canadian governments lasting no longer than about 2.5 years.Despite the CAD’s strength, further downside for USD/CAD may be limited by broader US Dollar (USD) resilience. The USD finds support amid signs of easing US-China trade tensions. US President Donald Trump indicated a willingness to roll back tariffs on China, while Beijing announced tariff exemptions for certain US goods, raising hopes that the prolonged trade war between the world’s two largest economies may be nearing an end.President Trump noted that progress had been made and that he had spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, a spokesperson from the Chinese embassy firmly denied any ongoing negotiations, stating, "China and the US are not having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs," and urged Washington to "stop creating confusion." Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

05:24 Canadian Liberal Party wins the 2025 federal election – CBC News
As polls closed in Canada, early results showed that the ruling Liberal Party won the federal election, according to CBC News.

As polls closed in Canada, early results showed that the ruling Liberal Party won the federal election, according to CBC News.Mark Carney will keep his job as prime minister, CBC News projected, noting that it's still too soon to tell whether he's clinched a majority or minority government. Liberals accounted for more than 50% of the vote, followed by the Conservative Party, with a vote share of 38.6%, A party needs to win 172 seats to form a majority government.

05:22 Japanese Yen trades with mild negative bias amid receding safe-haven demand
The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks lower during the Asian session on Tuesday and erodes a part of the previous day's strong recovery gains from a two-week low against its American counterpart.

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Hopes for a US-Japan trade deal and geopolitical risks should help limit any meaningful downfall.The divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations should further lend support to the lower-yielding JPY.The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks lower during the Asian session on Tuesday and erodes a part of the previous day's strong recovery gains from a two-week low against its American counterpart. The overall market mood remains cautiously optimistic amid signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China – the world's two largest economies – and hopes that the US will start to announce some trade deals. This, in turn, is seen undermining traditional safe-haven assets, including the JPY, though traders seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting this week. The Japanese central bank is scheduled to announce its decision on Thursday and is expected to keep interest rates steady amid heightening risks to the fragile economy from US tariffs. However, signs of broadening inflation in Japan keep the door open for further policy tightening by the BoJ. Moreover, persistent geopolitical tensions and US President Donald Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policies keep investors on the edge, which might limit JPY losses. Furthermore, the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD) should contribute to capping any meaningful gains for the USD/JPY pair. Japanese Yen bulls turn cautious amid a positive risk tone; downside potential seems limitedUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that many countries have offered ’very good’ tariff proposals. This comes on top of optimism over the potential de-escalation of trade tensions between the US and China and remains supportive of a positive risk tone. However, mixed signals regarding the state of negotiations from the US and China add a layer of uncertainty. In fact, US President Donald Trump said last week that trade talks with China were underway, though China has denied that any tariff negotiations were taking place.The Bank of Japan is expected to move cautiously and pause further rate hikes amid concerns that the new US tariffs could shave off 0.5% of Japan's GDP. That said, higher inflation and bumper pay rise provide the BoJ headroom for further monetary policy normalization this year. Furthermore, a quick trade agreement between the US and Japan could give the BoJ more confidence to hike rates again. This marks a big divergence in comparison to the growing acceptance that slowing global growth will encourage the Federal Reserve to deliver deeper rate cuts. Traders are pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and lower borrowing costs by a full percentage point by the end of 2025. The resultant narrowing of the US-Japan rate differential should underpin the lower-yielding Japanese Yen. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a surprise 72-hour unilateral ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict from May 8, though Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the three-day truce. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and could further benefit the safe-haven JPY. The US Dollar struggles to capitalize on last week's recovery from a multi-year low, as skepticism over Trump's trade policies and caution ahead of the BoJ meeting and US data cap USD/JPY upside.Investors will scrutinize the BoJ’s updated economic projections for cues about the timeline for the next rate hike. Meanwhile, the US JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, US Personal Consumption Expenditures on Wednesday, and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday might provide insight into the Fed's policy outlook.USD/JPY could resume the recent well-established downtrend once the 142.00 mark is brokenFrom a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair struggled to find acceptance above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and faced rejection near the 144.00 mark. Given that oscillators are holding in negative territory on daily and hourly charts, some follow-through selling below the 142.00 round figure will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Spot prices might then accelerate the fall towards the mid-141.00s en route to the 141.10-141.00 region. The downward trajectory could extend further towards intermediate support near the 140.50 area and eventually expose the multi-month low – levels below the 140.00 psychological mark touched last week.On the flip side, the immediate hurdle is pegged near the 142.60-142.65 region, above which a bout of a short-covering could lift the USD/JPY pair to the 143.00 mark en route to the next relevant resistance near the 143.40-143.45 zone. Some follow-through buying should allow spot prices to conquer the 144.00 round figure. A sustained strength and acceptance above the latter would suggest that the pair has formed a near-term bottom and pave the way for some meaningful upside. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

04:46 Australian Dollar edges lower as US Dollar appreciates due to easing global trade tensions
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is edging lower on Tuesday after registering more than 0.50% gains against the US Dollar (USD) in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair depreciates as the US Dollar appreciates amid easing global trade tensions.

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The AUD/USD pair depreciates as the US Dollar appreciates amid easing global trade tensions.US President Donald Trump signaled openness to reducing Chinese tariffs, while Beijing exempted certain US goods from its 125% levies. This move has fueled hopes that the prolonged trade war between the world's two largest economies might be drawing to a close. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Tuesday that making concessions and retreating would only embolden the bully, emphasizing that dialogue is key to resolving differences.President Trump said that there has been progress, and he has talked with China’s President Xi Jinping. However, a Chinese embassy spokesperson on Friday firmly denied any current negotiations with the US, stating, "China and the US are not having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs." The spokesperson urged Washington to "stop creating confusion."Traders are now turning their attention to Australia’s upcoming inflation report, set for release on Wednesday, which could influence expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia policy. The RBA is widely expected to implement another 25-basis-point rate cut in May as policymakers prepare for potential fallout from the newly imposed US tariffs.Australian Dollar may recover as confidence in American assets weakensThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, is trading higher at around 99.00 at the time of writing. However, the US Dollar faced challenges as Trump’s unpredictable trade policies have shaken confidence in American assets, prompting investors to turn to the shared currency as an alternative. Any further escalation in the US-China trade war could put additional pressure on the Greenback.According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump intends to lessen the impact of his automotive tariffs by ensuring that duties on foreign-made cars do not stack with other tariffs and by reducing levies on foreign parts used in car production.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that he interacted with Chinese authorities last week but did not mention tariffs. Bessent stated that while the US government is in communication with China, it is up to Beijing to make the first move to ease the tariff dispute, given the trade imbalance between the two countries.Reuters reported on Sunday that US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said that the Trump administration is holding daily discussions with China regarding tariffs. Rollins emphasized that talks were ongoing and that trade agreements with other countries were also "very close."Michael Hart, President of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, remarked that it's encouraging to see the US and China reviewing tariffs. Hart noted that while exclusion lists for specific categories are reportedly in the works, no official announcements or policies have been released yet. Both China’s Ministry of Commerce and the US Department of Commerce are currently gathering input on the matter.Westpac forecasted on Thursday that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming May 20 meeting. The RBA has adopted a data-driven approach in recent quarters, making it difficult to predict its actions beyond the next meeting with confidence.China's Finance Ministry stated on Friday that global economic growth remains sluggish, with tariffs and trade wars continuing to undermine economic and financial stability. The ministry urged all parties to enhance the international economic and financial system through stronger multilateral cooperation, per Reuters.Australian Dollar trades near 0.6400 after pulling back from levels near four-month highsThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6420 on Tuesday, with the daily chart indicating a bullish bias. The pair remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays well above the 50 mark, signaling continued upward momentum.On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the recent four-month high of 0.6439, recorded on April 22. A clear break above this level could open the door for a rally toward the five-month high at 0.6515. The initial support is seen at the nine-day EMA of 0.6387, with stronger support near the 50-day EMA at 0.6312. A sustained move below these levels would undermine the bullish outlook and could trigger deeper losses, bringing the March 2020 low near 0.5914 into focus.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.25% 0.15% 0.30% 0.06% 0.09% 0.24% 0.33% EUR -0.25% -0.07% 0.02% -0.17% -0.14% 0.01% 0.10% GBP -0.15% 0.07% 0.08% -0.10% -0.05% 0.09% 0.17% JPY -0.30% -0.02% -0.08% -0.18% -0.14% -0.06% 0.11% CAD -0.06% 0.17% 0.10% 0.18% 0.03% 0.19% 0.27% AUD -0.09% 0.14% 0.05% 0.14% -0.03% 0.16% 0.23% NZD -0.24% -0.01% -0.09% 0.06% -0.19% -0.16% 0.08% CHF -0.33% -0.10% -0.17% -0.11% -0.27% -0.23% -0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

04:22 GBP/USD declines below 1.3450 ahead of BoE’s Ramsden speech
The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 1.3425 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday, pressured by a modest rebound of US Dollar (USD). Investors await a speech by Bank of England (BoE) official Dave Ramsden for fresh impetus.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2029 vs. 7.2043 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.2029 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2043 and 7.2781 Reuters estimate.

03:35 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds below $3,350 on firmer US Dollar, easing US-China trade tensions
The Gold price (XAU/USD) loses ground to around $3,335 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The yellow metal edges lower amid a modest rebound of the US Dollar (USD) and a softening in tensions between the United States and China.

02:53 China’s Foreign Minister: Concession, withdrawal will only make bully aggressive
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Tuesday that concession and retreat will only make the bully more aggressive, adding that dialogue can help resolve differences.

02:43 White House official says Trump expected to soften auto tariffs - WSJ
According to the Wall Street Journal, US President Donald Trump plans to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs by preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking with other tariffs and easing levies on foreign parts used in car manufacturing. Those actions are expected tomorrow.

02:17 EUR/USD drifts lower to near 1.1400 on tariff uncertainty
The EUR/USD pair edges lower to near 1.1415 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) amid rising bets for further rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) in June.

02:10 United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous -0.4% to -0.1% in April
United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous -0.4% to -0.1% in April

01:06 Mexican Peso slips despite strong trade data, as US trade worries persist
The Mexican Peso weakened by 0.48% against the US Dollar on Monday, despite Wall Street gains and a 0.64% drop in the US Dollar Index (DXY). At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 19.58 after bouncing off daily lows of 19.47.

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At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 19.58 after bouncing off daily lows of 19.47.Market participants remain worried about US trade policies. Earlier, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said they’re progressing on some trade proposals, but China’s negotiations have not even begun. CNBC revealed that China insists there are no tariff talks underway with Trump and Xi or with aides, despite US claims.In the meantime, Mexico’s economic docket revealed labor market data, which showed the economy continuing to create jobs amid an ongoing economic deceleration. At the same time, the Trade Balance in March witnessed a surplus as exports outpaced imports, according to the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia(INEGI).Although the data further favored the downside of USD/MXN, traders remain reluctant to buy the Peso amid uncertainty about US trade news.Mexico’s economic docket will feature Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the first quarter, alongside the release of Business Confidence and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data for April.Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso depreciates despite posting solid dataMexico’s Balance of Trade printed a surplus of $3.422 billion, exceeding forecasts of $2.60 billion, up 9.6% compared to February’s figures.The Unemployment Rate fell from 2.5% in the prior month to 2.2% in March, beneath forecasts of a 2.4% dip.Mexico’s Economic Activity in February expanded by 1% MoM, above forecasts for a 0.6% growth. On a yearly basis, activity dipped from 0% to -0.7%, better than expected.Economic data revealed during the week witnessed a reacceleration of inflation in the first half of April, revealed INEGI. Retail Sales in February were lower than expected, showcasing the ongoing economic slowdown.Last week, Banxico’s Deputy Governor Omar Mejia Castelazo revealed that the economy has been undergoing a slowdown since Q4 2023, he said in Washington.Citi Mexico's expectations survey shows that economists expect Banxico to cut its rate by 50 basis points at the May meeting. For the full year, they project the main reference rate to end near 7.75%.Regarding the USD/MXN exchange rate, private analysts see the exotic pair finishing at 20.93, up from 20.90. Inflation in 2025 is projected to finish at 3.78% with core figures at 3.80% mostly aligned with the previous poll.Mexico’s economy is expected to grow 0.2% in 2025, below the 0.3% projected in the prior survey.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso remains bullish as USD/MXN stays below 200-day SMAUSD/MXN is downward biased after clearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average of 19.94, which sponsored the pair’s last leg toward yearly lows of 19.46. Although sellers are in charge, they must print a daily close below the latter, so the pair could be poised to challenge the 19.00 psychological level.Conversely, if USD/MXN climbs past the 200-day SMA, buyers could push the exchange rate towards 20.00. If surpassed, the next step would be the 20-day SMA at 20.15. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

00:58 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Struggles to hold ground ahead of the Asian session
The AUD/JPY is trading close to the 91.30 area on Monday, showing very limited movement ahead of the Asian session. The pair remains stuck mid-range after a session characterized by low volatility.

The AUD/JPY trades near the 91.30 zone with minimal gains during Monday’s session.Overall bias remains bearish despite mixed technical signals.Key resistance lies near 91.80, while support is seen closer to 91.10.The AUD/JPY is trading close to the 91.30 area on Monday, showing very limited movement ahead of the Asian session. The pair remains stuck mid-range after a session characterized by low volatility. Despite a marginal daily gain, technical indicators provide a mixed picture: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays neutral around 48, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flashes a buy signal, while momentum and stochastic oscillators hint at mounting selling pressure. A bearish tilt remains dominant, reinforced by the 30-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and Simple Moving Average (SMA), as well as the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, all indicating further downside risks.Looking deeper into the technical setup, selling signals persist as the 30-day EMA at 91.77 and 30-day SMA at 91.88 lean toward further declines. Longer-term trends also add to the bearish bias, with the 100-day SMA at 94.99 and the 200-day SMA at 96.92 firmly indicating selling pressure. Even though the 20-day SMA, positioned lower around 90.65, suggests short-term buying interest, it seems insufficient to overturn the broader negative sentiment.Momentum indicators bolster the bearish case, with the 10-period momentum showing weakness and the stochastic %K hovering at elevated but downward-leaning levels near 86, typically a signal of potential reversal from overbought conditions. On the flip side, the MACD’s buy signal tempers the bearish outlook somewhat, hinting at possible short-term stabilization.In terms of levels to watch, support is seen around 91.33, 91.13, and deeper near 90.98. Meanwhile, resistance is stacked near the 91.77, 91.81, and 91.88 zones, suggesting that any upside attempt could face challenges relatively quickly.Daily chart

00:40 EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Euro steady near mid-range as bullish signals hold ahead of Asia
The EUR/JPY is trading with slight gains near the 162.20 zone on Monday's session ahead of the Asian open, reflecting a cautious but positive mood. After modest fluctuations during the European hours, the pair stabilizes mid-range, hinting at a market waiting for fresh catalysts in Asia.

EUR/JPY trades near the 162.20 zone with mild gains on Monday ahead of the Asian session.The overall bias remains bullish despite mixed indicator signals.Key supports and resistances emerge as the pair consolidates near short-term moving averages.The EUR/JPY is trading with slight gains near the 162.20 zone on Monday's session ahead of the Asian open, reflecting a cautious but positive mood. After modest fluctuations during the European hours, the pair stabilizes mid-range, hinting at a market waiting for fresh catalysts in Asia. Overall, today’s movement shows resilience, with the pair clinging to its recent gains and technical indicators offering a mixed but slightly bullish tone.Looking at the technical setup, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands around 53, offering a neutral view and indicating no immediate overbought or oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a mild sell signal, suggesting some potential for short-term consolidation. However, other indicators such as the Bull Bear Power (around 0.09) and the Stochastic %K (near 67) maintain a neutral stance, adding to the cautious sentiment.Despite some neutral and bearish signals, the broader structure leans bullish. The 10-day, 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) all point higher, reinforcing the underlying strength of the Euro against the Yen. The 30-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 161.78 further supports this positive outlook.On the support side, immediate cushions are found near 162.19, 162.02, and 161.98, zones that may attract buyers if prices dip. Resistance levels to watch are placed around 162.25 and 162.73, marking potential hurdles for bulls aiming for further gains.Overall, while short-term momentum is somewhat mixed, the bullish alignment of the major moving averages suggests that dips may be shallow and temporary, keeping the EUR/JPY’s upward bias intact ahead of the Asian session.Daily Chart

00:06 USD/JPY plunges as trade optimism fades and BoJ looms
The USD/JPY pair faces heavy selling pressure, sliding to the 142.00 zone during Monday’s North American hours. Investor caution has resurfaced as broader trade optimism erodes, pushing demand toward the safe-haven Japanese Yen.

USD/JPY tumbles during North American trading, hovering near the bottom of its daily range around 142.00. Persistent trade uncertainty and fading multilateralism weigh on market sentiment; BoJ meeting and US economic data eyed. Key technical resistance levels are seen around 142.37, 142.94, and 143.18.
The USD/JPY pair faces heavy selling pressure, sliding to the 142.00 zone during Monday’s North American hours. Investor caution has resurfaced as broader trade optimism erodes, pushing demand toward the safe-haven Japanese Yen. Last week’s tentative rebound in risk sentiment had propelled USD/JPY back towards 144.00, but the start of this week sees renewed Yen strength ahead of key domestic and US events. Japanese markets remained closed on Monday for Showa Day, yet attention is firmly on the upcoming BoJ meeting where policymakers are expected to hold rates at 0.50%. However, Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food surged 3.4% year-over-year in March, hinting at persistent inflationary pressures that could push the BoJ closer to tightening later this year.Meanwhile, the US Dollar struggles amid stagnant trade negotiations. Despite Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comments on potential progress with Asian countries and hopes of China de-escalating, China firmly denied any ongoing talks, stressing mutual respect was essential. Retailers like Temu and Shein have already raised prices significantly for US consumers, reflecting the broader cost of persistent tariffs. Market participants are also looking ahead to a packed economic calendar, beginning with Wednesday’s first reading of Q1 US GDP, followed by Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. Both releases could heavily influence the Fed's monetary policy trajectory, with expectations rising for rate cuts if economic deterioration persists into the second half of the year.The move from multilateralism to bilateral negotiations under the Trump administration has introduced long-term structural uncertainties. While clients wonder if US trade policies could reduce global tariffs, history suggests prolonged instability. WTO obligations make unilateral tariff reductions difficult, and bilateral FTA negotiations are lengthy processes, typically taking years to conclude and implement. Adding to the complexity, China announced on Monday that it is not in active trade discussions with the US, emphasizing there are no winners in trade wars. As a consequence, economic spillovers are intensifying, with consumer prices rising sharply in sectors like retail. On the US front, DXY remains locked in a tight range near 100.00, awaiting fresh directional cues from this week's data releases. Resistance for the DXY is pegged at 100.22 and 101.90, while downside support lies at 97.73 and 96.94. Investors are cautious, weighing trade headlines and potential Fed policy shifts.The BoJ’s meeting on Friday also holds major significance. Although rate hikes are not expected immediately, stronger-than-expected inflation readings and broader global trade disruptions may influence future guidance. Expectations for a BoJ rate hike have been pushed back to later this year, with market participants eyeing the September-December window. Overall, the Japanese Yen could strengthen further amid slower global growth and more accommodative policies from other major central banks, including the Fed, BoE, and ECB, all of which have signaled readiness to ease if economic risks escalate.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
Technically, USD/JPY is displaying clear bearish signals as it trades around 142.00, down 1.14% on the day, and close to the bottom of its daily range between 141.98 and 143.89. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.71 is neutral, while the MACD offers a modest buy signal, creating a mixed but overall cautious technical backdrop. Adding to the bearish case, the Awesome Oscillator at −3.98 and Commodity Channel Index (CCI 20) at −52.62 both remain neutral, yet slanted negatively. Selling pressure is further reinforced by moving averages: the 20-day SMA sits at 144.40, the 100-day SMA at 151.24, and the 200-day SMA at 150.02 — all above the current price and signaling downward momentum. Shorter-term dynamics offer little relief, with the 10-day EMA at 142.94 and the 10-day SMA at 142.37 both presenting immediate resistance barriers. Key resistance levels to monitor are 142.37, followed by 142.94 and 143.18. A recovery above these hurdles would be necessary to weaken the current bearish momentum, but for now, risks remain tilted to the downside.Daily Chart

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Forex News Timeline

23:37 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 3.76M (April 25) vs -4.565M United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 3.76M (April 25) vs -4.565M

22:45 Forex Today: US hard data steal the show The renewed buying pressure prompted the Greenback to leave behind Monday’s pessimism and chart decent gains on Tuesday, always on the back of mitigating US-China trade concerns and rising prudence ahead of key US data releases later in the week.

21:44 US Dollar Index weakens as confidence and labor data disappoint The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, is showing muted gains on Tuesday after soft labor market and consumer sentiment data raised expectations for policy easing.

18:54 US Lutnick: Domestic car makers could move supply chains to the US US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick unveiled White House’s plans for US auto markers.

17:10 China waives tariffs on US ethane imports – Reuters Citing two sources familiar with the matter, Reuters reported on Tuesday that China has decided to waive the 125% tariff on ethane imports from the United States imposed earlier this month.

17:04 US CB Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 86.0 in April US consumer sentiment extended its decline in April, as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell from 93.9 (revised from 92.9) to 86.0—its weakest reading since April 2020.

17:00 United States JOLTS Job Openings below expectations (7.5M) in March: Actual (7.192M) United States JOLTS Job Openings below expectations (7.5M) in March: Actual (7.192M)

16:01 US Treasury Sec. Bessent: Trump creating strategic uncertainty in negotiations United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that President Donald Trump is creating "strategic uncertainty" in trade negotiations, per Reuters.

16:00 United States Housing Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.3%) in February: Actual (0.1%) United States Housing Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.3%) in February: Actual (0.1%)

16:00 United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) came in at 4.5% below forecasts (4.8%) in February United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) came in at 4.5% below forecasts (4.8%) in February

15:55 United States Redbook Index (YoY) dipped from previous 7.4% to 6.1% in April 25 United States Redbook Index (YoY) dipped from previous 7.4% to 6.1% in April 25

15:30 United States Wholesale Inventories below forecasts (0.7%) in March: Actual (0.5%) United States Wholesale Inventories below forecasts (0.7%) in March: Actual (0.5%)

15:30 United States Goods Trade Balance declined to $-162B in March from previous $-147B United States Goods Trade Balance declined to $-162B in March from previous $-147B

14:27 JPY underperforming along with haven peer CHF – Scotiabank The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened by 0.5% against the dollar, underperforming even fellow haven currencies, as markets brace for soft domestic data and upcoming US-Japan trade negotiations.

14:24 GBP fades modestly from fresh multiyear high – Scotiabank Pound Sterling (GBP) soft, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and trading in tandem with EUR in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:21 EUR: ECB CPI expectations surprise w/ markets still pricing June cut – Scotiabank Euro (EUR) is soft, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:15 AUD/USD retreats after failing to hold multi-month high – BBH AUD/USD trimmed gains after testing resistance near 0.6450, as market attention shifts to upcoming Q1 CPI data.

14:14 US Dollar steady as markets try to read through tariffs and US data The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, edges slightly higher and trades at 99.20 at the time of writing on Tuesday.

14:13 USD edges firmer on the day – Scotiabank The USD is tracking a little higher on the day so far, reversing some of yesterday’s losses, following news that President Trump will make some concessions on auto tariffs due to come into effect on May 3rd.

14:09 GBP/USD pulls back after multi-month high – BBH GBP/USD slipped from recent highs as UK retail price data confirmed ongoing deflation in shop prices, despite a pickup in food inflation.

14:08 USD/CAD: US auto tariffs & Canadian election result in focus – MUFG The US Dollar has strengthened modestly overnight against other G10 currencies as it continues to consolidate at lower levels following the heavy sell-off during this month.

13:54 Incoming US data to keep the pressure on the USD – DBS The DXY Index depreciated by 0.5% to 98.9 overnight after failing to push above 100 in the past three sessions. The Fed has entered a blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

13:49 EUR/USD holds steady around 1.1400 – BBH EUR/USD is range-bound around 1.1400, BBH FX analysts report, BBH FX analysts report.

13:44 AUD/USD corrects to near 0.6400 as US Dollar steadies The AUD/USD pair retraces to near 0.6400 during European trading hours on Tuesday from an over four-month high of 0.6450 posted earlier in the day.

12:32 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:30 Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 2.55% in April from previous 2.91% Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 2.55% in April from previous 2.91%

12:30 Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous -0.07% to -0.83% in April Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous -0.07% to -0.83% in April

12:24 Gold consolidates as tariff fears start to fade Gold price (XAU/USD) is entering a consolidation phase and is trading in a more narrow range day by day, currently trading around $3,315 at the time of writing on Tuesday.

12:24 GBP/USD tests key resistance at 1.3430–1.3500 – Société Générale The Pound Sterling (GBP) is approaching a critical technical zone against the US dollar, challenging last year's high and the top of a long-term ascending channel.

12:21 EUR/JPY holds gains near 162.50, downside seems possible due to ECB’s dovish signals EUR/JPY gains ground after registering more than 0.50% losses in the previous session, trading around 162.40 during European hours on Tuesday.

12:19 ECB survey: Eurozone Consumer Inflation Expectations rise to 2.9% over next 12 months in March The latest monthly Consumer Expectations Survey by the European Central Bank showed on Tuesday that Eurozone inflation is seen notably higher for the year ahead in March.

12:11 Liberals secure fourth term; Carney becomes PM – Danske Bank Early this morning, Canada's Liberal Party secured a fourth consecutive term, with Carney elected Prime Minister, as widely expected, Danske Bank's FX analysts report, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

12:06 EUR/USD holds steady amid USD weakness – Danske Bank EUR/USD remains stable in the 1.13-1.14 range, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

12:02 Canadian Liberals likely to win the election – Commerzbank Based on the latest polls, it should no longer be too surprising that the Canadian Liberals appear to have won the recent election, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

12:02 AUD/JPY climbs to near 91.50 as decreasing safe-haven demand weighs on Japanese Yen AUD/JPY gains ground after registering more than 0.50% losses in the previous session, trading around 91.50 during the European hours on Tuesday.

12:01 Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator below forecasts (94.5) in April: Actual (93.6) Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator below forecasts (94.5) in April: Actual (93.6)

12:01 Eurozone Business Climate increased to -0.67 in April from previous -0.73 Eurozone Business Climate increased to -0.67 in April from previous -0.73

12:01 Eurozone Industrial Confidence came in at -11.2 below forecasts (-10.7) in April Eurozone Industrial Confidence came in at -11.2 below forecasts (-10.7) in April

12:00 Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) climbed from previous 0.2% to 0.4% in 1Q Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) climbed from previous 0.2% to 0.4% in 1Q

12:00 Eurozone Services Sentiment fell from previous 2.4 to 1.4 in April Eurozone Services Sentiment fell from previous 2.4 to 1.4 in April

12:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence in line with forecasts (-16.7) in April Eurozone Consumer Confidence in line with forecasts (-16.7) in April

11:58 Oil slides on weakening demand concerns – ING Oil prices edged lower in the early trading session today amid concerns that the US-led trade war will hurt energy demand, continuing the declines seen towards the end of yesterday, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

11:51 Gold under pressure – ING Gold edges lower in the European session, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

11:48 Tariff shenanigans weigh on the USD – OCBC Tariff developments remain fluid even if we are in a de-escalation phase. Trump/Bessent continued to speak about how 'all aspects' of the US government are in contact with China regarding trade even as Beijing denied the existence of negotiations.

11:30 Portugal Business Confidence down to 2.2 in April from previous 2.4 Portugal Business Confidence down to 2.2 in April from previous 2.4

11:30 Portugal Consumer Confidence fell from previous -16 to -17.9 in April Portugal Consumer Confidence fell from previous -16 to -17.9 in April

11:13 EUR: Losing some shine – ING The euro has lost some momentum as the go-to European currency amid US Dollar (USD) outflows. Since the start of the week, it has been outperformed by all other G10 currencies except for USD, CAD and NZD.

11:06 Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) dipped from previous 3.8% to -0.4% in February Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) dipped from previous 3.8% to -0.4% in February

11:06 Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY): -1.5% (February) vs previous 1.7% Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY): -1.5% (February) vs previous 1.7%

11:03 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Finds psychological support at 0.5950 near nine-day EMA The NZD/USD pair remains subdued after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 0.5970 during European hours on Tuesday.

11:02 Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) fell from previous 3.8% to 3.7% in March Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) fell from previous 3.8% to 3.7% in March

11:01 Italy Business Confidence: 85.7 (April) vs previous 86 Italy Business Confidence: 85.7 (April) vs previous 86

11:00 Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) increased to 1.7% in March from previous 1.5% Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) increased to 1.7% in March from previous 1.5%

11:00 Italy Consumer Confidence fell from previous 95 to 92.7 in April Italy Consumer Confidence fell from previous 95 to 92.7 in April

11:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) came in at 3.6% below forecasts (4.1%) in March Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) came in at 3.6% below forecasts (4.1%) in March

10:38 China’s Commerce Ministry: If the US wants resolution, it should stop making threats A Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson said on Tuesday that “if the US wants resolution, it should stop making threats.”

10:15 ECB’s Cipollone: Trade policy uncertainty could reduce business investment European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Piero Cipollone said that “trade policy uncertainty could reduce business investment.”

10:10 USD/CAD holds gains near 1.3850 as Canadian Liberals fail to secure majority government USD/CAD has recovered its intraday losses, trading around 1.3840 during early European hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) loses ground following election results in Canada.

10:03 Forex Today: US Dollar holds ground following Monday's choppy action Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 29:

10:01 Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.6% (April) vs previous 0.7% Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.6% (April) vs previous 0.7%

10:01 Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.6% in April from previous 0.1% Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.6% in April from previous 0.1%

10:01 Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2%) in April: Actual (2.2%) Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2%) in April: Actual (2.2%)

10:00 Spain Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (YoY) down to 2.8% in 1Q from previous 3.5% Spain Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (YoY) down to 2.8% in 1Q from previous 3.5%

10:00 Turkey Economic Confidence Index fell from previous 100.8 to 96.6 in March Turkey Economic Confidence Index fell from previous 100.8 to 96.6 in March

10:00 Spain Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (QoQ) below forecasts (0.7%) in 1Q: Actual (0.6%) Spain Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (QoQ) below forecasts (0.7%) in 1Q: Actual (0.6%)

10:00 Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) unchanged at 2.2% in April Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) unchanged at 2.2% in April

09:55 EUR/GBP loses ground below 0.8500, investors await BoE’s Ramsden speech The EUR/GBP cross extends its downside to near 0.8490 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Euro (EUR) softens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) due to the dovish remarks from the European Central Bank (ECB).

09:10 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.15 per barrel, down from Monday’s close at $61.64.

09:00 Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) dipped from previous 14.4B to 12.8B in March Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) dipped from previous 14.4B to 12.8B in March

09:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey registered at -20.6 above expectations (-26) in May Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey registered at -20.6 above expectations (-26) in May

08:30 Canadian PM Carney declares victory in election Canadian Prime Minister (PM) Mark Carney came out on the wires and declared a victory in the federal election on Tuesday.

08:29 GBP/JPY flat lines below 191.00 mark despite broadly weaker JPY The GBP/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on its modest Asian session uptick and currently trades just below the 191.00 round-figure mark, nearly unchanged for the day.

08:11 FX option expiries for Apr 29 NY cut FX option expiries for Apr 29 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

07:45 EUR/CAD remains below 1.5800 after projections show likely minority Carney government The EUR/CAD cross reverses an Asian session dip to the 1.5755-1.5750 region and jumps to a fresh daily top in the last hour, though it lacks follow-through buying.

07:44 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:21 Gold price slides back closer to $3,300 amid tariff deals optimism Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the vicinity of the $3,265-3,260 pivotal support and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday.

06:34 NZD/USD falls to near 0.5950 due to shifting US-China trade signals NZD/USD is retracing its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 0.5960 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) is finding support as optimism grows over easing US-China trade tensions.

05:24 Canadian Liberal Party wins the 2025 federal election – CBC News As polls closed in Canada, early results showed that the ruling Liberal Party won the federal election, according to CBC News.

05:22 Japanese Yen trades with mild negative bias amid receding safe-haven demand The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks lower during the Asian session on Tuesday and erodes a part of the previous day's strong recovery gains from a two-week low against its American counterpart.