Forex News Timeline
23:39 Mexican Peso surges as US Dollar gets battered on Moody’s news
The Mexican Peso (MXN) advanced by 0.60% against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as investors shifted away from the Greenback amid Moody’s International rating agency's review of the US government's debt prospects. USD/MXN trades at 19.32 after hitting a daily high of 19.48.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Mexican Peso appreciates as USD/MXN hovers near 19.30, with traders eyeing Mexico GDP and upcoming US data.Banxico’s Governor maintains a dovish tone, while Mexico’s IOAE suggests economy stalled in April.Moody’s downgrades US debt to AA1, citing fiscal inaction; USD broadly weaker amid long-term debt concerns.The Mexican Peso (MXN) advanced by 0.60% against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as investors shifted away from the Greenback amid Moody’s International rating agency's review of the US government's debt prospects. USD/MXN trades at 19.32 after hitting a daily high of 19.48.Market appetite has improved as the session progresses, as traders brushed aside Moody’s news. The international agency downgraded the US government's debt rating from AAA to AA1, citing that the inaction by successive US administrations and Congress has contributed to the country’s worsening fiscal position, raising concerns over long-term debt sustainability.Banco de Mexico (Banxico) Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja crossed the newswires and remained dovish. News from Mexico’s National Statistics Agency warned that the economy likely stalled in April, according to the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity..In the meantime, some Federal Reserve (Fed) officials crossed the newswires.Traders are eyeing the release of Mexican Retail Sales and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. On the US front, investors will digest the S&P Global Flash PMI figures, as well as housing and jobs data.Mexican Peso daily market movers: Peso poised to extend gainsBanxico’s Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja said that monetary policy would remain restrictive but hinted that there is room to reduce the benchmark interest rate, she said in an interview published by El Financiero.Last week, Banxico reduced its rates to 8.50%, citing the need for additional calibration of monetary policy and anticipating further easing. The central bank forecasts that headline inflation will converge to the 3% goal by Q3 2026.INEGI revealed the results of the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE), with figures remaining unchanged at 0% in April compared to March’s -0.2% MoM contraction.Analysts surveyed by El Economista project Mexico’s main reference rate at around the 7.25% to 7.75% range by the end of 2025.Fed officials Raphael Bostic, John Williams and Philip Jefferson agreed that the current monetary policy stance remains appropriate due to uncertainty regarding tariffs. Williams noted that economic data has been solid and echoed Jefferson's concerns about the tariffs potentially triggering a re-acceleration in inflation. Bostic projects one interest rate cut in 2025.The December 2025 fed funds rates futures contract shows that market players expect 52 basis points of easing.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso surges as USD/MXN poised for daily close below 19.35USD/MXN remains downward biased, but sellers have failed to refresh the year-to-date (YTD) lows of 19.29 hit on May 14, which, once cleared, could pave the way for further downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that bears remain in charge. That said, the exotic pair could retest the 19.00 figure, last hit on August 21, 2024.In that outcome, USD/MXN next support would be 18.50, followed by the 18.00 psychological mark. Conversely, buyers must reclaim 19.50 to remain hopeful of hitting higher prices, with the first resistance seen at 19.53, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), followed by the 50-day SMA at 19.90. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
23:10 NZD/USD rises as Trump touts Ukraine talks, Moody’s downgrade drags US Dollar
The NZD/USD pair is climbing at the start of the week, trading around the 0.5900 level after President Donald Trump claimed credit for restarting Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
Moody’s downgrades US credit rating, fueling USD weakness.Trump announces Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations.New Zealand inflation expectations rise, but rate cut still expected.The NZD/USD pair is climbing at the start of the week, trading around the 0.5900 level after President Donald Trump claimed credit for restarting Russia-Ukraine peace talks. While Trump’s announcement eased geopolitical tensions, the US Dollar remains pressured near 100.30, following a downgrade by Moody’s from AAA to AA1, citing concerns over US fiscal deterioration. This renewed pressure on the Greenback has supported the Kiwi, which also draws strength from rising New Zealand inflation expectations.US President Donald Trump declared via Truth Social that Russia has agreed to return to ceasefire talks with Ukraine. Trump stated that both parties would begin negotiations immediately, adding that large trade between the US and Russia could resume after the war. Meanwhile, the Vatican has offered to host peace negotiations.The US Dollar Index is slipping further toward 100.30 after Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign rating. The agency highlighted that the US no longer maintains sufficient fiscal metrics to justify a top-tier rating. This downgrade has increased risk premiums on US debt, which may limit the Fed’s room to cut rates in the near term. Several Fed officials stated that clarity on the economic outlook may not arrive until summer, and traders have now priced in around 75 basis points of rate cuts over the next 12 months.In New Zealand, second-quarter inflation expectations ticked up to 2.3% from 2.2% in Q1. Despite this, markets still expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to reduce the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points later this month, with a projected terminal rate of 2.75% by year-end.
Technical Analysis
NZD/USD is displaying a bullish signal, trading around the 0.5900 zone and showing a sharp rise today. The pair sits mid-range between its daily low of 0.5876 and high of 0.5933. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the 50s, indicating neutral conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals sell momentum. The Awesome Oscillator trades around zero, suggesting neutral momentum, as does the Commodity Channel Index (20). The Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) resides in the 20s, also signaling neutral conditions.While the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) suggests a sell signal, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs offer buy signals, aligning with the buy sentiment from the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 10-day SMA. Support levels are found near 0.5914, 0.5910, and 0.5905, while resistance is expected around 0.5925, 0.5932, and 0.5934. Fibonacci support clusters around 0.5300, 0.5500, and 0.5600, with resistance near 0.6000, 0.6200, and 0.6400.Shifting to the 4-hour timeframe, the overall signal remains bullish, supported by buy signals from the 4-hour Momentum (10) and 4-hour MACD Level (12, 26), while the 4-hour Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) is neutral. The 4-hour EMAs (10 and 20) and SMAs (10 and 20) all point towards a buy signal.
Daily chart
Technical Analysis
NZD/USD is displaying a bullish signal, trading around the 0.5900 zone and showing a sharp rise today. The pair sits mid-range between its daily low of 0.5876 and high of 0.5933. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the 50s, indicating neutral conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals sell momentum. The Awesome Oscillator trades around zero, suggesting neutral momentum, as does the Commodity Channel Index (20). The Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) resides in the 20s, also signaling neutral conditions.While the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) suggests a sell signal, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs offer buy signals, aligning with the buy sentiment from the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 10-day SMA. Support levels are found near 0.5914, 0.5910, and 0.5905, while resistance is expected around 0.5925, 0.5932, and 0.5934. Fibonacci support clusters around 0.5300, 0.5500, and 0.5600, with resistance near 0.6000, 0.6200, and 0.6400.Shifting to the 4-hour timeframe, the overall signal remains bullish, supported by buy signals from the 4-hour Momentum (10) and 4-hour MACD Level (12, 26), while the 4-hour Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) is neutral. The 4-hour EMAs (10 and 20) and SMAs (10 and 20) all point towards a buy signal.
Daily chart
22:03 Fed's Bostic: I only see one rate cut this year, but could be more if trade talks pick up
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic hit newswires on Monday with his own rate cut forecast. According to Bostic, the Fed is on pace to do only a single quarter-point rate cut in 2025.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic hit newswires on Monday with his own rate cut forecast. According to Bostic, the Fed is on pace to do only a single quarter-point rate cut in 2025. This undercuts current rate market bets of at least two cuts by December, with four total rate cuts priced in by H2 2026.Key highlightsPolicy is mildly restrictive.
I see one interest-rate cut this year.
We could pull forward actions if trade negotiations pick up.
I see one interest-rate cut this year.
We could pull forward actions if trade negotiations pick up.
22:00 Forex Today: PBoC to hold, RBA to cut, and more Fedspeak
The US Dollar started the new trading week on the back foot as investors continued to digest news of Moody’s credit downgrade, while the resurgence of some trade tensions also weighed on the currency.
The US Dollar started the new trading week on the back foot as investors continued to digest news of Moody’s credit downgrade, while the resurgence of some trade tensions also weighed on the currency.Here’s what to watch on Tuesday, May 20:The US Dollar Index (DXY) receded to two-week lows and put the key 100.00 support to the test on the back of fresh selling pressure following agency Moody’s downgrade of US credit. The API’s weekly report on US crude inventories is due along with speeches by the Fed’s Markin, Bostic, Collins, Musalem, and Kugler.EUR/USD jumped to two-week tops north of the 1.1200 barrier in response to the sudden sell-off in the US Dollar. Germany’s Producer Prices are next on tap, seconded by EMU’s Current Account, Construction Output, the Labour Cost Index, and the European Commission’s flash Consumer Confidence. In addition, the ECB’s Donnery, Cipollone, and Buch are due to speak.GBP/USD advanced markedly, surpassing the 1.3400 hurdle to hit new three-week highs following the renewed offered stance in the Greenback. The Inflation Rate data on May 21 will be the next key release on the UK docket.USD/JPY traded in a bearish note on Monday, coming down to the 144.60 zone, where some decent support seems to have turned up. Next on tap in Japan will be the Balance of Trade results on May 21AUD/USD reversed three consecutive daily pullbacks, reclaiming the area beyond 0.6400 and coming at shouting distance from its critical 200-day SMA. The RBA is anticipated to lower its OCR by 25 basis point.WTI alternated gains with losses near the $62.00 mark per barrel following Moody’s downgrade of US credit and concerns over the Chinese economy.Gold picked up renewed pace and retested the $3,250 region per troy ounce on Monday, following the renewed and strong downside pressure in the Greenback. Silver prices traded with marginal losses, weighed by disheartening data from China.
22:00 BoE's Dhingra: If the US Dollar goes up, we have to worry about rate dynamics and UK inflation
Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Dr. Swati Dhingra cautioned that the United Kingdom (UK) could be facing a rocky road on inflation, especially as knock-on effects from the Trump administration's tariff-heavy trade policies reverberate through the global economy.
Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Dr. Swati Dhingra cautioned that the United Kingdom (UK) could be facing a rocky road on inflation, especially as knock-on effects from the Trump administration's tariff-heavy trade policies reverberate through the global economy.However, this isn't Dr. Dhingra's base case scenario, noting that a rapidly-appreciately US Dollar (USD) would be the key spark for UK inflation metrics, something that doesn't appear to be happening to any significant degree.Key highlightsMy vote for a 50 bps rate cut was partly to make a statement on the direction of the economy.
We might see some cost pass-through from US tariffs, but I argue that the number would be quite small.
I won't rule out a scenario where global trade breaks up and the UK suffers inflation, but I don’t think that's where we're headed.
My working hypothesis is that dollar depreciation is not going to put immense pressure on UK import prices.
If the dollar starts to really go up, we have to worry about what exchange rate dynamics do for UK inflation.
We might see some cost pass-through from US tariffs, but I argue that the number would be quite small.
I won't rule out a scenario where global trade breaks up and the UK suffers inflation, but I don’t think that's where we're headed.
My working hypothesis is that dollar depreciation is not going to put immense pressure on UK import prices.
If the dollar starts to really go up, we have to worry about what exchange rate dynamics do for UK inflation.
21:58 US Dollar under pressure as credit downgrade and policy uncertainty rattle markets
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, remains pinned near the 100.30 level to start the week, with bearish sentiment lingering after Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Moody’s downgrades US credit rating to ‘AA1’ from ‘AAA’ amid worsening fiscal outlook.Trump claims success in brokering ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine.Fed officials stress wait-and-see stance; trade policy adds to economic uncertainty.DXY holds near 100.30 with summer rate cuts looking increasingly unlikely.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, remains pinned near the 100.30 level to start the week, with bearish sentiment lingering after Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating. The downgrade underscores growing concerns over fiscal deterioration and tariff-induced distortions under US President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, markets shrugged off Trump’s announcement of renewed Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations. With Federal Reserve (Fed) officials maintaining caution and calling for more clarity before committing to policy changes, the DXY struggles to find upside momentum.Daily digest market movers: Not before the summer at earliestMoody’s cuts US credit rating to ‘AA1’, citing fiscal concerns and weakening macroeconomic metrics under Trump-era tariffs.President Trump claims personal success in restarting Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks; Vatican offers to host negotiations.Fed’s Kashkari and Jefferson note significant uncertainty from trade policy, weighing on investment and hiring plans.White House advisor Kevin Hassett hints at more bilateral trade deals coming, but details remain sparse.Fed Chair Powell expected to speak later this week as markets digest risks to policy efficacy amid yield dislocation.Traders remain skeptical of the Greenback’s role as a safe haven with fears of coordinated Asian currency appreciation also building.The market sees a 91.6% probability of rates holding at 4.25%–4.50% in June and a 65.1% chance of no change in July. However, by September, a cut to 4.00%–4.25% is seen as nearly a coin toss (49.6%). Further easing is expected throughout 2025 and into 2026, potentially reaching 3.25%–3.50% by the end of 2026.
US Dollar Index technical analysis: The Dollar Put just got real
The US Dollar Index is trading near the 100.30 mark with little intraday movement, sitting mid-range between support at 100.06 and resistance at 100.90. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the 40s and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) in the 40s both suggest neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a mild buy signal. Momentum (10) hovers near zero, leaning bearish. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) supports a buy bias, but the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages, along with the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 10-day Simple Moving Average, all indicate a longer-term sell signal. Resistance is seen at 100.30, 100.57, and 100.58, with key support at 100.10 and 99.94. On the 4-hour chart, momentum is more clearly negative: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals sell, Exponential and Simple Moving Averages (10, 20) align bearish, while the Stochastic Oscillator (%K line) remains neutral. A potential revisit of Fibonacci retracement support around 94.19–98.18 cannot be ruled out if sentiment worsens.
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, remains pinned near the 100.30 level to start the week, with bearish sentiment lingering after Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating. The downgrade underscores growing concerns over fiscal deterioration and tariff-induced distortions under US President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, markets shrugged off Trump’s announcement of renewed Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations. With Federal Reserve (Fed) officials maintaining caution and calling for more clarity before committing to policy changes, the DXY struggles to find upside momentum.Daily digest market movers: Not before the summer at earliestMoody’s cuts US credit rating to ‘AA1’, citing fiscal concerns and weakening macroeconomic metrics under Trump-era tariffs.President Trump claims personal success in restarting Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks; Vatican offers to host negotiations.Fed’s Kashkari and Jefferson note significant uncertainty from trade policy, weighing on investment and hiring plans.White House advisor Kevin Hassett hints at more bilateral trade deals coming, but details remain sparse.Fed Chair Powell expected to speak later this week as markets digest risks to policy efficacy amid yield dislocation.Traders remain skeptical of the Greenback’s role as a safe haven with fears of coordinated Asian currency appreciation also building.The market sees a 91.6% probability of rates holding at 4.25%–4.50% in June and a 65.1% chance of no change in July. However, by September, a cut to 4.00%–4.25% is seen as nearly a coin toss (49.6%). Further easing is expected throughout 2025 and into 2026, potentially reaching 3.25%–3.50% by the end of 2026.
US Dollar Index technical analysis: The Dollar Put just got real
The US Dollar Index is trading near the 100.30 mark with little intraday movement, sitting mid-range between support at 100.06 and resistance at 100.90. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the 40s and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) in the 40s both suggest neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a mild buy signal. Momentum (10) hovers near zero, leaning bearish. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) supports a buy bias, but the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages, along with the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 10-day Simple Moving Average, all indicate a longer-term sell signal. Resistance is seen at 100.30, 100.57, and 100.58, with key support at 100.10 and 99.94. On the 4-hour chart, momentum is more clearly negative: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals sell, Exponential and Simple Moving Averages (10, 20) align bearish, while the Stochastic Oscillator (%K line) remains neutral. A potential revisit of Fibonacci retracement support around 94.19–98.18 cannot be ruled out if sentiment worsens.
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
21:52 EUR/GBP tests resistance ahead of G7 meeting, ECB and BoE guidance
The Euro (EUR) is strengthening against the British Pound Sterling (GBP) on Monday, as diverging drivers on both sides of the Channel shape market sentiment.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Euro awaits key catalysts as traders eye Tuesday’s G7 meeting, Germany’s PPI, ECB speeches, and Eurozone Consumer Confidence.EUR/GBP tests the 50 and 100-day SMA resistance zone with a breakout required to shift the bearish bias.Pound Sterling finds temporary support from renewed UK–EU cooperation.The Euro (EUR) is strengthening against the British Pound Sterling (GBP) on Monday, as diverging drivers on both sides of the Channel shape market sentiment. While the Euro remains resilient amid softer US Dollar flows and unchanged Eurozone inflation data, Sterling draws modest support from renewed UK–EU cooperation. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading near 0.8412, up 0.40% on the day and holding near the lower end of its recent consolidation range, as traders turn their attention to Tuesday’s packed calendar featuring the G7 finance meeting, central bank speeches, Germany’s inflation data, and Eurozone Consumer Confidence.Eurozone inflation data fails to move EUR/GBP as traders look beyond the April printOn Monday, the Euro showed little reaction to the final April release of the Eurozone’s Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which came in line with analyst projections. Both the Headline and Core figures were unchanged from March, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures remain stable. With the outcome largely priced in, the data offered no fresh catalyst to alter expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB), where policymakers are still anticipated to begin cutting rates in the second half of the year. As a result, the report had minimal impact on EUR/GBP positioning, with the pair continuing to trade within a well-defined range.Sterling gains support from UK–EU cooperation, but the Euro outperformsWhile recent UK–EU diplomacy provided Sterling with some fundamental support, Monday’s EUR/GBP price action appears to favor the Euro. The Pound drew modest backing from the announcement of a renewed UK–EU cooperation framework, which includes expanded defense coordination and a shared agenda on trade and security, viewed as a stabilizing step for long-term UK–EU relations. Additionally, anticipation of stronger UK inflation data on Wednesday is helping limit downside pressure on GBP. However, the Euro is outperforming on the day, supported by softer US Dollar flows and steady Eurozone inflation data, keeping EUR/GBP bid near the lower end of its recent range.Traders brace for packed Tuesday calendar with G7 meeting, inflation data, and ECB, BoE guidance in focusFocus now shifts to a high-impact Tuesday agenda that could shape the short-term direction of EUR/GBP. The two-day G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting begins in Banff, Canada, where global leaders are expected to discuss economic security, financial stability, and geopolitical risks. Currency markets will be watching closely for any statements on trade imbalances or coordinated financial responses that could influence broader sentiment.In Europe, Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) will provide an updated view of inflation at the producer level, feeding into expectations for broader Eurozone price trends. The Euro may also react to scheduled speeches from ECB officials Cipollone and Knot, which could offer further clarity on the central bank’s policy stance amid persistent core inflation and subdued economic momentum. In addition, the preliminary May Eurozone Consumer Confidence reading is due at 14:00 GMT, with forecasts pointing to a slight improvement to -16.0 from -16.7. A stronger-than-expected print could indicate stabilizing household sentiment and provide modest support to the Euro.On the UK side, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill is due to speak ahead of Wednesday’s key inflation reports. His remarks may provide forward guidance on the Bank’s monetary outlook, with April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Price Index (RPI) figures expected to play a pivotal role in shaping near-term rate expectations.EUR/GBP tests critical resistance as bearish bias holds near key technical zoneThe EUR/GBP currency pair is currently hovering near a key confluence zone, where the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the psychological support level of 0.8400 are providing immediate downside protection. Just below, the May low at 0.8377 serves as the next key support to monitor, followed by the March swing low at 0.8315.On the upside, resistance is reinforced by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2022 March–September rally at 0.84278, along with the 50-day SMA at 0.8468. A sustained break above this zone would be required to shift the short-term bias and expose the 38.2% retracement level of the 2015–2020 longer-term bull trend at 0.8519.EUR/GBP daily chartThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 41.26, indicating weak momentum and limited bullish conviction. As long as the pair remains capped below the 0.8430–0.8468 resistance band, the broader bias continues to favor sellers, particularly if upcoming UK inflation data and central bank commentary extend support to the Pound. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
21:40 Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounds after Moody’s downgrades US debt
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained ground to kick off the new trading week, touching 42,800 for the first time in eight weeks as markets continue to push equity markets back into the high end following this year’s tariff-fueled stock rout.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Dow Jones rose on Monday, tapping the 42,800 region.Moody’s downgraded US debt late last week, sparking a brief hesitation in investor sentiment.Fedspeakers are working double duty ahead of US PMI data later this week.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained ground to kick off the new trading week, touching 42,800 for the first time in eight weeks as markets continue to push equity markets back into the high end following this year’s tariff-fueled stock rout.Moody’s ratings agency stripped the United States (US) of its last remaining AAA rating on its Treasuries last Friday, citing burgeoning US debt and government deficits that successive presidential administrations either refuse to, or are incapable of, bringing under control. Ratings agencies began stripping AAA status from US Treasuries in 2013, and it is the first time Moody’s has downgraded the US since 1913.Investor sentiment wobbled at the headlines, but quickly recovered and shrugged off the hit to US creditworthiness: even with decaying investment quality, there are functionally no alternatives to Treasury-quality assets, especially when considering the sheer size of the US debt market, which towers over any other potential asset.Still, not all is perfectly rosy in the Treasury markets: 30-year yields broke above 5% on Monday, and 10-year yields traded north of 4.5%. The last time 10-year yields rose this high, this fast, the Trump administration was forced to pivot away from and effectively cancel its “reciprocal tariff” plans in April.Fed not in a rush to meet markets in the middle on rate cutsFederal Reserve (Fed) speakers have hit the ground running this week in an attempt to temper market expectations for rate cuts. All Fed policymakers have been gently but firmly reminding investors that the US’s still-existing tariff and trade policies make it nearly impossible to forecast the domestic economy, and adjust policy rates as a result. The Fed is firmly entrenched in wait-and-see mode, no matter how much rate markets price in future rate cuts. Even though rate traders still hold out hope for a fresh rate-cutting cycle to kick off in 2025, when those rate cuts will begin continues to march further into the calendar. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are now pricing in a first quarter-point rate trim in September, well back from the June expectations that were priced in less than a month ago.The key economic data release this week will be S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures for May. According to median market forecasts, both the manufacturing and services components of the PMI report are expected to decline slightly as tariffs take a bite out of business spending activity.Read more stock news: UnitedHealth stock fills in the gap as market assesses the bottom is inDow Jones price forecastThe Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to march its way back up the charts. The major equity index has closed higher for four consecutive weeks, and is already on its way to a fifth bullish week after a determined start on Monday. The Dow Jones is pushing even further above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 41,500, and is up nearly 17% from April’s tariff plunge that sent the DJIA down to 36,600.Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
21:11 Gold price rebounds above $3,200 as Moody’s downgrade spurs safe haven demand
Gold price trimmed some of last Friday’s losses, climbing on safe haven demand following Moody’s downgrade of the United States' (US) creditworthiness. The rating agency's action undermined the US Dollar and sent XAU/USD above the $3,200 figure after bouncing off daily lows of $3,202.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold gains on safe-haven flows as DXY falls 0.47% to 100.50; XAU/USD reclaims key $3,200 level.Moody’s cuts US credit rating to Aa1, citing long-term fiscal inaction; Treasury yields steady, USD weakens.Putin-Trump call adds geopolitical layer; traders brace for busy week of Fed speeches and key US data.Gold price trimmed some of last Friday’s losses, climbing on safe haven demand following Moody’s downgrade of the United States' (US) creditworthiness. The rating agency's action undermined the US Dollar and sent XAU/USD above the $3,200 figure after bouncing off daily lows of $3,202.On Friday, the international rating agency Moody’s modified its US government rating from AAA to Aa1. They highlighted that more than a decade of inaction by successive US administrations and Congress has contributed to the country’s worsening fiscal position, raising concerns over long-term debt sustainability.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US currency against six others, dropped 0.47% to 100.50. Although it remains off daily lows of 100.06, traders seeking safety have moved to the yellow metal.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that April 2 tariffs imposed in some countries could be reinstated if they do not negotiate on favorable terms.Recently, Ria revealed that the phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump has concluded, lasting over two hours. Putin said the call was very informative and helpful.This week, traders will eye Fed speeches, Flash PMIs, housing data and Initial Jobless Claims data.Daily digest market movers: Gold climbs despite hawkish comments by Fed officialsUS Treasury bond yields had risen due to Moody’s actions, yet are off daily peaks, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield at around 4.481%, up almost four basis points (bps). Meanwhile, US real yields are also up four bps at 2.147%.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the Treasury market is functioning well and that he favors one interest rate cut as it will take time to understand the impact of tariffs.New York Fed John Williams said that recent economic data has been excellent. Regarding monetary policy, he stated that they are at a good pace, adding that they can take time to make the appropriate monetary policy decision.Fed Vice-Chair Philip Jefferson said the impact on the Fed’s mandate is “top of mind” and added that risks to the Fed’s dual mandate are balanced. He noted that although tariffs could trigger a one-time price increase, the Fed needs to ensure this is not sustained.Major banks are convinced that the yellow metal will continue to rally heading into next year. Goldman Sachs forecasts bullion to average $3,700 an ounce by year-end, then reach $4,000 by mid-2026.XAU/USD technical outlook: Double top at risk of being negatedGold price is trading top/bottom of the $3,200 figure, unable to crack the $3,300 figure for the latest five trading days. On the downside, the scenario is the same, with XAU/USD remaining above $3,150 and also above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $3,168.For a bullish continuation, Gold must clear the $3,300 figure, so buyers can challenge the latest swing high of $3,438, sustained on May 7. Further resistance lies around $3,500. Conversely, if XAU/USD holds below $3,250, the next support level would be $3,200, followed by the 50-day SMA. A breach of the latter will expose $3,100. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
21:06 SNB's Schlegel: Switzerland is not a currency manipulator except when it needs to be
Chairman of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Martin Schlegel noted on Monday that uncertainty surrounding inflation has made it more difficult to actively manage foreign currency flows, noting that there are functionally no suitable alternatives for central banks to manage their holdings without US Tre
Chairman of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Martin Schlegel noted on Monday that uncertainty surrounding inflation has made it more difficult to actively manage foreign currency flows, noting that there are functionally no suitable alternatives for central banks to manage their holdings without US Treasuries, exposing countries to long-standing FX flows.Key highlightsSNB policy rate is our main instrument, but when necessary we can intervene in the FX markets.
SNB must ensure price stability during uncertainty.
Swiss 2025 growth will be lower than expected.
Uncertainty is currently very high. The Swiss franc is often sought as a safe haven in times of uncertainty.
The outlook for Swiss inflation is currently very unclear.
We're seeing inflation primarily from domestic services.
The foreign contribution to inflation is negative.
The franc is being bought by domestic and foreign investors.
Uncertainty is toxic for growth.
Gold on the balance sheet is not necessarily an advantage.
Too much gold on the balance sheet is not an advantage.
There is currently no alternative to US Treasuries.
Negative interest rates are an extraordinary measure, but it had the desired effect when used last time.
We cannot rule out negative interest rates.
Switzerland is not a currency manipulator, we have only intervened to pursue our mandate.
We have only intervened to slow the overvaluation of the franc, not to gain a competitive advantage for Switzerland.
SNB must ensure price stability during uncertainty.
Swiss 2025 growth will be lower than expected.
Uncertainty is currently very high. The Swiss franc is often sought as a safe haven in times of uncertainty.
The outlook for Swiss inflation is currently very unclear.
We're seeing inflation primarily from domestic services.
The foreign contribution to inflation is negative.
The franc is being bought by domestic and foreign investors.
Uncertainty is toxic for growth.
Gold on the balance sheet is not necessarily an advantage.
Too much gold on the balance sheet is not an advantage.
There is currently no alternative to US Treasuries.
Negative interest rates are an extraordinary measure, but it had the desired effect when used last time.
We cannot rule out negative interest rates.
Switzerland is not a currency manipulator, we have only intervened to pursue our mandate.
We have only intervened to slow the overvaluation of the franc, not to gain a competitive advantage for Switzerland.
21:00 Donald Trump announces Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks will begin again
United States (US) President Donald Trump, speaking via Truth Social posts, has again declared a moderate success on attempting to manage the Russia-Ukraine war.
United States (US) President Donald Trump, speaking via Truth Social posts, has again declared a moderate success on attempting to manage the Russia-Ukraine war. According to President Trump, Russia has again agreed to return to the negotiating table in order to secure a complete ceasefire deal with Ukraine. Donald Trump has announced his personal success in bringing the two sides of Russia's three-day invasion of Ukraine, which is approaching the 1,200-day mark, several times during his second term in office.Key highlightsRussia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a ceasefire.
Putin's call went very well.
Conditions will be negotiated between the two parties.
Will start negotiations toward ceasefire immediately.
Russia wants large trade with the US when the war is over.
Ukraine can benefit from trade.
Vatican says it would host Russia-ukraine negotiations.
I spoke to NATO leaders after call with Putin.
Putin's call went very well.
Conditions will be negotiated between the two parties.
Will start negotiations toward ceasefire immediately.
Russia wants large trade with the US when the war is over.
Ukraine can benefit from trade.
Vatican says it would host Russia-ukraine negotiations.
I spoke to NATO leaders after call with Putin.
20:54 Fed's Kashkari: US economy entered the year strong, but lots of uncertainty now
According to Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, although the year saw a strong start for the US economy, ongoing uncertainty at the hands of the Trump administration's trade policies has put a significant dent in investor sentiment, creating turbulence in markets and
According to Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, although the year saw a strong start for the US economy, ongoing uncertainty at the hands of the Trump administration's trade policies has put a significant dent in investor sentiment, creating turbulence in markets and making it difficult for businesses to pull the trigger on the exact investments and hiring that President Donald Trump is hoping for.Key highlightsComing into this year economic conditions were good.
There's big uncertainty now in the economy.
I don't know when the tariff landscape will settle out.
Businesses are holding off on investment amid uncertainty.
It's wait-and-see until we get more information.
Very bullish there will be lots of jobs in the future of the US economy.
Net net, AI will be strongly positive for the economy.
There's big uncertainty now in the economy.
I don't know when the tariff landscape will settle out.
Businesses are holding off on investment amid uncertainty.
It's wait-and-see until we get more information.
Very bullish there will be lots of jobs in the future of the US economy.
Net net, AI will be strongly positive for the economy.
20:49 AUD/USD eyes 0.6500 hurdle as US Dollar weakens, RBA decision looms
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its rebound against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with AUD/USD climbing to 0.6455, trimming recent losses as sentiment turns against the Greenback.
AUD/USD trades near 0.6455, up 0.80% on the day amid broad US Dollar weakness.Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating weighs on the Greenback.RBA expected to cut rates by 25bps on Tuesday, market focus on guidance amid resilient domestic data.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its rebound against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with AUD/USD climbing to 0.6455, trimming recent losses as sentiment turns against the Greenback. The move comes after Moody’s Rating downgraded the US long-term sovereign rating from “Aaa” to “Aa1,” citing mounting fiscal challenges and a $36 trillion debt load. Although the agency assigned a “Stable” outlook, the downgrade triggered renewed weakness in the US Dollar, pushing the US Dollar Index (DXY) near the key 100.00 mark.Meanwhile, the focus shifts to Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy decision. There is strong consensus across financial markets and major banks that the RBA will lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points, from 4.10% to 3.85%. Analysts at ANZ, Commonwealth Bank, and Westpac support this view. However, National Australia Bank (NAB) has taken a more aggressive stance, forecasting a 50 basis point cut. Some economists have even floated the possibility of a 35 basis point reduction to realign the rate with a standard quarter-point level. A Reuters poll shows a near-unanimous forecast for a 25 basis point cut.However, upbeat Australian labor market data and improving US-China trade sentiment have tempered expectations for an aggressive easing cycle.Technical Analysis: AUD/USD eyes breakout above key resistanceFrom a technical standpoint, AUD/USD is approaching the 0.6500 psychological resistance zone, which has capped the pair’s upside multiple times in May. A daily close above this barrier would open the door to further gains toward 0.6600, a level not seen since November.The pair remains supported by the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6402, reinforcing the bullish short-term bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.69 shows modest upward momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to hover in positive territory, although momentum is flattening.On the downside, key support is seen at 0.6400, marked by the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), followed by a stronger floor at 0.6350. The near-term bias remains cautiously bullish as long as the pair holds above the 0.6400 support zone.
20:17 USD/CHF drops as US credit downgrade weighs on sentiment
The USD/CHF pair is trading 0.5% lower around 0.8330 during North American trading hours on Monday, reflecting a sharp drop in US Dollar sentiment after Moody's downgraded the United States' long-term credit rating from AAA to AA1.
USD/CHF trades 0.5% lower near 0.8330 amid sharp Dollar selling pressure.Moody's downgraded the US credit rating to 'AA1' from 'AAA', citing fiscal deterioration.Technical levels show immediate support around 0.8300, with resistance at 0.8380 and 0.8430.The USD/CHF pair is trading 0.5% lower around 0.8330 during North American trading hours on Monday, reflecting a sharp drop in US Dollar sentiment after Moody's downgraded the United States' long-term credit rating from AAA to AA1. This marks a significant hit to the US Dollar's perceived stability, further pressuring the Greenback amid ongoing fiscal challenges.The US Dollar is facing significant headwinds following Moody's decision to downgrade the US long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings. The agency cited the $36 trillion debt pile and declining fiscal metrics as key reasons for the cut, reflecting growing concerns about the sustainability of US finances. The downgrade has pushed 10-year US Treasury yields up to nearly 4.52%, as investors demand higher compensation for the perceived risk of holding US debt.Meanwhile, Fed officials struck a cautious tone on Monday. Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson highlighted the risks to both jobs and inflation, suggesting a "wait and see" approach to future rate decisions given the current economic uncertainty. New York Fed President John Williams echoed these sentiments, noting that recent US data remains strong but that uncertainties around trade continue to pose risks. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also signaled that inflation is not moving toward target as quickly as anticipated, reinforcing the view that further rate cuts may be limited this year.On the Swiss side, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to maintain a dovish stance as trade tensions remain elevated, potentially adding to the appeal of the safe-haven Swiss Franc. However, the broader market focus remains on the US fiscal outlook and the potential impact of higher borrowing costs on the global economy.Technical AnalysisFrom a technical perspective, USD/CHF has broken below key support levels, reflecting the broader bearish trend. Immediate support is now seen around 0.8300, followed by 0.8270 and 0.8220. On the upside, resistance is likely to emerge around 0.8380, followed by the 0.8430 zone, which marks a significant barrier for further recovery.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bearish territory, suggesting continued downside pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is pointing lower, reinforcing the negative outlook. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has also turned lower, providing further resistance to any potential recovery.With Moody's downgrade adding to the negative sentiment around the US Dollar, USD/CHF is likely to remain under pressure in the near term. Traders will be closely watching US economic data and further Fed commentary for signs of a potential policy shift, while the Swiss Franc's safe-haven appeal may provide additional downside risk for the pair.Daily Chart
19:27 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Pair holds firm near 1.13 after sharp rise
The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.13 zone on Monday, reflecting a strong intraday recovery as the market gains momentum after the European session. Despite the sharp upside move, the broader technical outlook presents a mixed picture, with conflicting signals across different timeframes.
EUR/USD trades near the 1.13 zone on Monday after a sharp intraday rise.The pair maintains a bullish bias despite mixed short-term signals.Key support is clustered below 1.1230, with resistance near 1.1280.The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.13 zone on Monday, reflecting a strong intraday recovery as the market gains momentum after the European session. Despite the sharp upside move, the broader technical outlook presents a mixed picture, with conflicting signals across different timeframes. Shorter-term indicators suggest potential pullbacks, while the longer-term trend remains firmly bullish, providing a cautiously optimistic backdrop for the pair.The daily technical setup reflects a complex, but overall positive, outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the 50s, signaling neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still points to sell pressure, highlighting the potential for near-term consolidation. However, the Average Directional Index (14) in the 20s supports buying pressure, suggesting the pair might sustain its recent gains. The Williams Percent Range (14) and the Commodity Channel Index (20) also indicate neutral momentum, reinforcing the cautious tone.Moving averages paint a more supportive long-term picture. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) are aligned with the current bullish sentiment, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs confirm the broader upward bias. In contrast, the 20-day SMA remains in sell territory, acting as a potential headwind for the pair's recovery.Shifting to the 4-hour timeframe, the outlook remains firmly bullish. The 4-hour MACD signals buy momentum, aligning with the broader daily trend, while the shorter-term 10 and 20-period EMAs and SMAs also indicate sustained buying interest. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Average Directional Index (ADI) on the 4-hour chart remain neutral, reflecting the current consolidation phase after the sharp move higher.Immediate support is seen around 1.1230, with additional levels at 1.1220 and 1.1217. On the upside, resistance is likely to emerge around 1.1280, followed closely by 1.1282 and 1.1284. Broader Fibonacci levels place deeper support in the 1.0400 to 1.0900 range, while resistance extends toward 1.1500, 1.1700, and 1.2000, providing a wider context for potential breakout scenarios.Daily Chart
19:07 GBP/JPY halts three-day losing streak, rises to 193.60 as UK–EU reset lifts sentiment
GBP/JPY is trading modestly higher near 193.60 on Monday, snapping a three-day losing streak. The pair experienced some volatility early in the session, briefly falling to a low of 192.78 before paring losses.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/JPY edges up to 193.60 on Monday, snapping a three-day losing streak after hitting an intraday low at 192.78.UK and EU hail new defense and security pact as a post-Brexit "reset" in relations; Pound Sterling gains modestly.Broader risk sentiment and policy divergence continue to shape GBP/JPY flows.
GBP/JPY is trading modestly higher near 193.60 on Monday, snapping a three-day losing streak. The pair experienced some volatility early in the session, briefly falling to a low of 192.78 before paring losses. The cross draws support from improved political sentiment in Europe following a landmark UK–EU agreement, while diverging monetary policy paths between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continue to shape flows.The United Kingdom and the European Union have formally reached a wide-ranging agreement covering defense cooperation, youth mobility, cybersecurity, and maritime safety, with both sides describing it as a potential “reset” in their relationship five years after Brexit. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called the deal a chance to move beyond “stale old debates” to focus on practical collaboration. As part of the accord, UK companies may gain access to the EU’s €150 billion SAFE defense fund, a move that could deepen economic and security ties. The news has boosted sentiment toward the Pound, easing political risk and improving the outlook for cross-border investment and trade.On the monetary front, the BoE delivered a cautious rate cut in its last meeting, marking the start of a gradual easing cycle. While the central bank acknowledged progress in bringing down inflation, it emphasized that policy needs to remain restrictive for a sufficient period to ensure price stability. The BoE’s guidance reflects a delicate balancing act: supporting growth without prematurely loosening conditions in the face of still-sticky services inflation.In contrast, the BoJ is maintaining its current higher interest rate setting, having exited negative rates earlier this year. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reiterated that the central bank remains open to further gradual rate hikes but stressed that any action would depend on the evolution of economic conditions. The BoJ is particularly focused on global trade headwinds, including uncertainty around US tariffs, and aims to stay flexible as external risks evolve.Looking ahead, UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due Wednesday and Japan’s CPI report on Thursday could offer the next catalysts for GBP/JPY as traders reassess inflation trends and central bank expectations. For now, the pair remains supported by easing UK political tensions and ongoing BoJ caution. British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.67% -0.50% -0.17% -0.20% -0.79% -0.68% -0.24% EUR 0.67% -0.09% 0.31% 0.30% -0.22% -0.18% 0.21% GBP 0.50% 0.09% 0.12% 0.38% -0.14% -0.10% 0.29% JPY 0.17% -0.31% -0.12% -0.03% -0.45% -0.31% -0.01% CAD 0.20% -0.30% -0.38% 0.03% -0.57% -0.48% -0.09% AUD 0.79% 0.22% 0.14% 0.45% 0.57% 0.04% 0.45% NZD 0.68% 0.18% 0.10% 0.31% 0.48% -0.04% 0.39% CHF 0.24% -0.21% -0.29% 0.01% 0.09% -0.45% -0.39% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
GBP/JPY is trading modestly higher near 193.60 on Monday, snapping a three-day losing streak. The pair experienced some volatility early in the session, briefly falling to a low of 192.78 before paring losses. The cross draws support from improved political sentiment in Europe following a landmark UK–EU agreement, while diverging monetary policy paths between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continue to shape flows.The United Kingdom and the European Union have formally reached a wide-ranging agreement covering defense cooperation, youth mobility, cybersecurity, and maritime safety, with both sides describing it as a potential “reset” in their relationship five years after Brexit. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called the deal a chance to move beyond “stale old debates” to focus on practical collaboration. As part of the accord, UK companies may gain access to the EU’s €150 billion SAFE defense fund, a move that could deepen economic and security ties. The news has boosted sentiment toward the Pound, easing political risk and improving the outlook for cross-border investment and trade.On the monetary front, the BoE delivered a cautious rate cut in its last meeting, marking the start of a gradual easing cycle. While the central bank acknowledged progress in bringing down inflation, it emphasized that policy needs to remain restrictive for a sufficient period to ensure price stability. The BoE’s guidance reflects a delicate balancing act: supporting growth without prematurely loosening conditions in the face of still-sticky services inflation.In contrast, the BoJ is maintaining its current higher interest rate setting, having exited negative rates earlier this year. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reiterated that the central bank remains open to further gradual rate hikes but stressed that any action would depend on the evolution of economic conditions. The BoJ is particularly focused on global trade headwinds, including uncertainty around US tariffs, and aims to stay flexible as external risks evolve.Looking ahead, UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due Wednesday and Japan’s CPI report on Thursday could offer the next catalysts for GBP/JPY as traders reassess inflation trends and central bank expectations. For now, the pair remains supported by easing UK political tensions and ongoing BoJ caution. British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.67% -0.50% -0.17% -0.20% -0.79% -0.68% -0.24% EUR 0.67% -0.09% 0.31% 0.30% -0.22% -0.18% 0.21% GBP 0.50% 0.09% 0.12% 0.38% -0.14% -0.10% 0.29% JPY 0.17% -0.31% -0.12% -0.03% -0.45% -0.31% -0.01% CAD 0.20% -0.30% -0.38% 0.03% -0.57% -0.48% -0.09% AUD 0.79% 0.22% 0.14% 0.45% 0.57% 0.04% 0.45% NZD 0.68% 0.18% 0.10% 0.31% 0.48% -0.04% 0.39% CHF 0.24% -0.21% -0.29% 0.01% 0.09% -0.45% -0.39% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
18:35 EUR/CHF Price Analysis: Pair holds near 0.94 amid mixed momentum signals
The EUR/CHF pair is trading near the 0.94 zone on Monday, reflecting minor gains as the market stabilizes within its recent range. Despite the modest upside, the pair remains constrained by a broadly neutral technical outlook, with mixed signals across multiple timeframes.
EUR/CHF trades near the 0.94 zone with minor gains on Monday.The pair maintains a neutral tone, with conflicting short-term and long-term signals.Key support is clustered below 0.9370, with resistance near 0.9400.The EUR/CHF pair is trading near the 0.94 zone on Monday, reflecting minor gains as the market stabilizes within its recent range. Despite the modest upside, the pair remains constrained by a broadly neutral technical outlook, with mixed signals across multiple timeframes. Short-term momentum is showing signs of a potential bullish tilt, though the broader context still suggests cautious trading.On the daily chart, the EUR/CHF pair presents a mixed technical landscape. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the 50s, signaling neutral conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates buy momentum, providing a slight bullish undertone. However, the Awesome Oscillator remains around zero, reinforcing the neutral tone, and the Average Directional Index (14) around 12 confirms the lack of a strong trend. The Ultimate Oscillator, also in the 50s, echoes this sideways sentiment, while the Ichimoku Base Line, positioned around the 1 area, further highlights the market’s indecision.Moving averages paint a similarly mixed picture. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) supports a buy bias, aligning with the recent modest gains, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs point to a more bearish longer-term outlook, suggesting that any near-term upside may struggle to gain traction without a broader momentum shift.Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, the technical outlook turns slightly more bullish. The 4-hour MACD is in positive territory, indicating building momentum, while the 10-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 10-period SMA on this shorter timeframe also support the upside bias. However, the 20-period 4-hour SMA sends a contrasting sell signal, highlighting the risk of near-term pullbacks despite the bullish tone. The Bull Bear Power and the 4-hour Ultimate Oscillator remain neutral, adding to the mixed signals.In terms of price structure, immediate support is found around 0.9368, with additional layers at 0.9366 and 0.9364. On the upside, resistance is likely to emerge around 0.9373, followed closely by 0.9390 and 0.9407. Broader Fibonacci clusters suggest deeper support in the 0.9000 to 0.9200 range, while resistance extends toward 0.9600 to 0.9800, providing a wider context for potential breakout or breakdown scenarios.Daily Chart
18:29 GBP/USD rallies as Moody’s cut US credit rating, UK-EU "reset" relations
The Pound Sterling posted solid gains on Monday as the Greenback gets battered due to Moody’s lowering US debt rating to Aa1, a headwind for the US Dollar. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3360, up 0.71%.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/USD lifted by renewed optimism after UK and EU agree to landmark post-Brexit cooperation deal.Moody’s downgrades US credit rating to Aa1, citing years of fiscal inaction by US policymakers.Fed officials voice caution on tariffs; Bostic, Williams, Jefferson highlight uncertainty ahead of key US data.The Pound Sterling posted solid gains on Monday as the Greenback gets battered due to Moody’s lowering US debt rating to Aa1, a headwind for the US Dollar. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3360, up 0.71%.Sterling gains as US Dollar slumps on fiscal concerns; UK-EU “reset” adds to GBP bullish momentumOn Friday, the international ratings agency Moody’s attributed more than a decade of inaction by successive US administrations and Congress to address the country’s deteriorating fiscal position. The news weighed on the American currency, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of a basket of six currencies against the buck, lost 0.65% at 100.31, refreshing a seven-day low.The British Pound remains underpinned by the so-called “reset” of relations between the UK and the Eurozone (EU). CNN reported that both parties “agreed to a landmark deal aimed at “resetting” their post-Brexit relationship, easing restrictions on travel and work for hundreds of millions of people on the continent.”Federal Reserve speakers remain uncertain about tariffs' impactAside from this, Federal Reserve officials are crossing the wires. Atlanta’s Fed Raphael Bostic commented that he’s leaning towards cutting once in 2025 due to uncertainty about tariffs and their impact on the economy.Recently, the New York Fed John Williams added that monetary policy is in a good place and that the Fed can take its time on monetary policy decisions. The Fed’s Vice Chair, Philip Jefferson, stated that the impact of tariffs on the Fed’s mandate is “top of mind,” as the US central bank risks straying from its mandate, depending on the administration's policy choices.Ahead this week, traders eye the release of UK inflation figures for April and Retail Sales. Across the pond, Fed speeches, Flash PMIs, housing data, and initial jobless claims will dictate price action.GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe GBP/USD is set to extend its gains if the pair remains above 1.3350. Momentum support buyers as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish, signaling that they’re getting traction.Hence, further upside is seen at 1.3400, although traders would face stiff resistance at the year-to-date (YTD) high of 1.3443. A breach of the latter will expose 1.3500.Conversely, if GBP/USD tumbles below 1.3350, the first support would be 1.3300. Once surpassed, the next stop is 1.3250, 1.3200 and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3122.
British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.88% -0.61% -0.32% -0.39% -0.89% -0.80% -0.55% EUR 0.88% 0.02% 0.39% 0.32% -0.12% -0.09% 0.11% GBP 0.61% -0.02% 0.08% 0.31% -0.13% -0.11% 0.09% JPY 0.32% -0.39% -0.08% -0.06% -0.40% -0.27% -0.17% CAD 0.39% -0.32% -0.31% 0.06% -0.49% -0.41% -0.22% AUD 0.89% 0.12% 0.13% 0.40% 0.49% 0.03% 0.24% NZD 0.80% 0.09% 0.11% 0.27% 0.41% -0.03% 0.20% CHF 0.55% -0.11% -0.09% 0.17% 0.22% -0.24% -0.20% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
British Pound PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.88% -0.61% -0.32% -0.39% -0.89% -0.80% -0.55% EUR 0.88% 0.02% 0.39% 0.32% -0.12% -0.09% 0.11% GBP 0.61% -0.02% 0.08% 0.31% -0.13% -0.11% 0.09% JPY 0.32% -0.39% -0.08% -0.06% -0.40% -0.27% -0.17% CAD 0.39% -0.32% -0.31% 0.06% -0.49% -0.41% -0.22% AUD 0.89% 0.12% 0.13% 0.40% 0.49% 0.03% 0.24% NZD 0.80% 0.09% 0.11% 0.27% 0.41% -0.03% 0.20% CHF 0.55% -0.11% -0.09% 0.17% 0.22% -0.24% -0.20% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
17:58 EUR/JPY snaps three-day losing streak, edges higher as Eurozone inflation holds steady
EUR/JPY trades modestly higher near 163.20 on Monday, snapping a three-day losing streak, as investors digest steady Eurozone inflation data, flexible policy signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), and fresh geopolitical developments ahead of key economic releases.
EUR/JPY rebounds to 163.20 on Monday after three days of losses, capped by resistance near 165.00.Eurozone inflation unchanged in April: headline at 2.2%, core CPI stable at 2.7%, reinforcing June ECB rate cut bets.BoJ’s Uchida flags potential for more hikes if recovery holds; Japan CPI and trade data eyed this week.EUR/JPY stays above 50-day EMA near 162.26; broader range between 161.00 and 165.00 intact
EUR/JPY trades modestly higher near 163.20 on Monday, snapping a three-day losing streak, as investors digest steady Eurozone inflation data, flexible policy signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), and fresh geopolitical developments ahead of key economic releases.Latest Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) figures from Eurostat confirmed that Eurozone headline inflation stayed at 2.2% in April, while core inflation held steady at 2.7%, both matching forecasts. The in-line data keeps the European Central Bank (ECB) on track for a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut in June, as policymakers focus on persistent growth risks and a still-anchored inflation outlook.On the Japanese side, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that the central bank could continue raising interest rates if Japan’s economy rebounds from the hit of higher US tariffs, noting that inflation is likely to stay near the 2% target if conditions unfold as projected. However, Uchida also cautioned that the global trade outlook remains highly uncertain.This week’s Japanese trade balance, due on Tuesday, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Thursday will be closely watched for further signals. A potential acceleration in core inflation could strengthen the BoJ’s case for additional tightening, while trade figures will offer a snapshot of Japan’s export performance amid tariff-driven disruptions.Geopolitical headlines are also influencing sentiment. The European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) reached a tentative agreement on multiple areas—including defense, fisheries, and youth mobility—ahead of a key EU–UK summit. According to EU officials, the deal would allow British firms to participate in EU defense contracts, marking progress in post-Brexit cooperation and offering potential tailwinds for the Euro.Meanwhile, in Asia, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reiterated that Japan will not agree to any initial trade deal with the US that excludes automobiles, pressing Washington to lift its 25% tariff on Japanese cars. The stance underscores Japan’s firm position in ongoing trade talks and highlights the lingering risks of protectionist measures, which continue to support safe-haven flows into the Japanese Yen.From a technical standpoint, EUR/JPY remains within a consolidation range between 161.00 and 165.00, rebounding off support and trading above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 162.26. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 signals neutral momentum, with no immediate breakout signals. A daily close above 165.00 would be needed to confirm bullish continuation, while a move below 161.00 could open the door for deeper losses.
EUR/JPY trades modestly higher near 163.20 on Monday, snapping a three-day losing streak, as investors digest steady Eurozone inflation data, flexible policy signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), and fresh geopolitical developments ahead of key economic releases.Latest Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) figures from Eurostat confirmed that Eurozone headline inflation stayed at 2.2% in April, while core inflation held steady at 2.7%, both matching forecasts. The in-line data keeps the European Central Bank (ECB) on track for a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut in June, as policymakers focus on persistent growth risks and a still-anchored inflation outlook.On the Japanese side, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that the central bank could continue raising interest rates if Japan’s economy rebounds from the hit of higher US tariffs, noting that inflation is likely to stay near the 2% target if conditions unfold as projected. However, Uchida also cautioned that the global trade outlook remains highly uncertain.This week’s Japanese trade balance, due on Tuesday, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Thursday will be closely watched for further signals. A potential acceleration in core inflation could strengthen the BoJ’s case for additional tightening, while trade figures will offer a snapshot of Japan’s export performance amid tariff-driven disruptions.Geopolitical headlines are also influencing sentiment. The European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) reached a tentative agreement on multiple areas—including defense, fisheries, and youth mobility—ahead of a key EU–UK summit. According to EU officials, the deal would allow British firms to participate in EU defense contracts, marking progress in post-Brexit cooperation and offering potential tailwinds for the Euro.Meanwhile, in Asia, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reiterated that Japan will not agree to any initial trade deal with the US that excludes automobiles, pressing Washington to lift its 25% tariff on Japanese cars. The stance underscores Japan’s firm position in ongoing trade talks and highlights the lingering risks of protectionist measures, which continue to support safe-haven flows into the Japanese Yen.From a technical standpoint, EUR/JPY remains within a consolidation range between 161.00 and 165.00, rebounding off support and trading above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 162.26. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 signals neutral momentum, with no immediate breakout signals. A daily close above 165.00 would be needed to confirm bullish continuation, while a move below 161.00 could open the door for deeper losses.
17:09 USD/CHF declines to near 0.8330 as US Dollar underperforms across the board
The USD/CHF pair trades 0.5% lower to near 0.8330 during North American trading hours on Monday. The Swiss Franc pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) faces a sharp selling pressure due to erosion in the United States (US) Sovereign Credit Rating.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF slumps to near 0.8330 as the US Dollar declines on a US downgrade.US Hassett assures closing more trade deals this week.The SNB is expected to lower interest rates furtherThe USD/CHF pair trades 0.5% lower to near 0.8330 during North American trading hours on Monday. The Swiss Franc pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) faces a sharp selling pressure due to erosion in the United States (US) Sovereign Credit Rating.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slumps to near 100.30. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.75% -0.59% -0.10% -0.21% -0.67% -0.54% -0.33% EUR 0.75% -0.09% 0.47% 0.37% -0.02% 0.04% 0.20% GBP 0.59% 0.09% 0.25% 0.47% 0.07% 0.14% 0.29% JPY 0.10% -0.47% -0.25% -0.09% -0.39% -0.23% -0.16% CAD 0.21% -0.37% -0.47% 0.09% -0.45% -0.33% -0.17% AUD 0.67% 0.02% -0.07% 0.39% 0.45% 0.06% 0.23% NZD 0.54% -0.04% -0.14% 0.23% 0.33% -0.06% 0.16% CHF 0.33% -0.20% -0.29% 0.16% 0.17% -0.23% -0.16% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
On Friday, Moody’s Rating downgraded the US long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings from Aaa to Aa1. The one-notch downgrade in the US credit came on the back of a growing $36 trillion debt pile. The US downgrade has sparked yields on interest-bearing assets. 10-year US Treasury yields soar to near 4.52% at the press time, 1.8% higher from its previous close.Meanwhile, optimism on the White House closing more deals with its trading partners could support the US Dollar. During North American trading hours, the White House’s economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, signaled hopes of more trade deals sooner. “I would not be surprised if there are more trade deals this week,” Hassett.Additionally, the confidence of investors about a potential US-China trade deal has increased. US President Donald Trump has given a positive response in an interview with Fox News on Friday to visiting China for direct trade talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.On the Swiss Franc (CHF) front, investors expect more interest rate cuts from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) due to trade war risk. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
17:08 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD edges higher as Moody’s downgrade forces USD lower
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading slightly higher on Monday, holding above the $32.00 level during the US session, as broader weakness in the US Dollar fuels demand for alternative safe-haven assets.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver prices edge higher as US Dollar weakness lifts alternative safe-haven assets.Credit risk clouds US outlook, lifting demand for alternative assets.XAG/USD consolidates below $33.00 as a tight range caps upside momentum.Silver (XAG/USD) is trading slightly higher on Monday, holding above the $32.00 level during the US session, as broader weakness in the US Dollar fuels demand for alternative safe-haven assets. The move comes in response to Moody’s downgrade of US sovereign credit, which has added to market concerns over fiscal sustainability and long-term growth prospects.At the time of writing, silver prices are up 0.05% on the day, with spot XAG/USD last seen around $32.30. The metal is attempting to reclaim the 50-day Simple Moving Average near $32.75, which has capped gains in recent sessions.US sovereign downgrade by Moody’s triggers Dollar retreatOn Friday, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the United States' sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1, citing growing concerns over ballooning debt levels, policy uncertainty, and the long-term impact of high interest rates. This marks the final major agency to strip the US of its top-tier credit rating, raising alarm over the country’s fiscal path and potential long-term drag on economic growth.In the aftermath, the US Dollar has come under renewed pressure, with the US Dollar index (DXY) slipping as investors reassess the Greenback's standing as the world’s preeminent safe-haven currency. With Silver priced in dollars, the relative weakness of the USD has bolstered the appeal of precious metals.Tariff threats, trade uncertainty, and Fed policy shifts keep Silver in focusOngoing geopolitical tensions and tariff threats from the Trump administration are also weighing on sentiment. The White House reiterated over the weekend that elevated tariffs could be reinstated on countries not negotiating in “good faith,” sparking concerns over trade friction and global supply chains.Meanwhile, the market’s focus shifts to this week’s barrage of Federal Reserve speakers. Five Fed officials are scheduled to speak on Monday, and traders are watching closely for clues on the trajectory of interest rates and whether the Fed will maintain its restrictive stance amid mounting fiscal and political uncertainty.XAG/USD range-bound below key Moving Averages as momentum stallsSilver (XAG/USD) is trading slightly higher near $32.33 on Monday, but remains confined within a tight consolidation range below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.75. The metal has struggled to gain sustained momentum, with resistance forming around the $33.00 to $33.23 zone, an area defined by recent swing highs and horizontal barriers. On the downside, immediate support lies at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March to April range at $32.07, followed by the 100-day SMA at $31.96. Further weakness could expose the mid-point of the above-mentioned move at $31.29. Momentum remains neutral, as reflected by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding near 47.57, offering no clear directional signal. Unless XAG/USD breaks decisively above $33.23 or below $31.96, the pair is likely to remain range-bound in the short term, with traders awaiting a fundamental catalyst to drive the next move.Silver (XAG/USD) daily chart
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
16:45 Euro area: Rome wasn’t built in a day – Standard Chartered
Q1 outperformance tells little about the remainder of 2025; growth momentum is likely to weaken. Growth forecast of 0.8% this year remains unchanged, but near-term recession risks are high. The 2026 growth has been revised down to 1.0% (1.2%) owing to the lingering effects of trade uncertainty.
Q1 outperformance tells little about the remainder of 2025; growth momentum is likely to weaken. Growth forecast of 0.8% this year remains unchanged, but near-term recession risks are high. The 2026 growth has been revised down to 1.0% (1.2%) owing to the lingering effects of trade uncertainty. The 2027 growth has been revised down to 1.6% (1.1%) as German fiscal boost and defence spending feeds through, Standard Chartered's economist Christopher Graham notes. Negatives now, positives later"Despite a strong start to the year, we think the near-term outlook in the euro area is fragile; we see slower growth in the coming quarters owing to the effect of US tariffs on demand for euro-area exports, and the broader effects of global trade uncertainty. We maintain our 2025 growth forecast of 0.8% purely as a result of strong Q1 growth. We think recession risks are high in next few quarters, depending on US-EU trade negotiations. Our base case is that the euro area will ultimately face tariff rates somewhere between the baseline 10% and original 20% rate, but the outcome could be worse, resulting in a greater hit to economic growth.""As the euro area gradually compensates for lost trade with the US via expanded trade elsewhere, the hit from tariffs should diminish. This should be reflected in improving quarterly growth in 2026, although the weak close to 2025 and lingering effects into early next year still prompt us to lower our full-year growth forecast to 1.0% (from 1.2% previously). However, we see a more positive story emerging in 2027, as the negative effects from trade continue to dissipate and tailwinds from German infrastructure spending and continent-wide defence spending gather momentum. We raise our 2027 growth forecast to 1.6% (from 1.1%) accordingly."
16:39 Fed's Jefferson: Will keep policy in a place to be sure inflation expectations remain anchored
Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson said on Monday that there are risks to both jobs and inflation and added that it is appropriate to wait and see on rate decisions, given the the uncertainty, per Reuters.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson said on Monday that there are risks to both jobs and inflation and added that it is appropriate to wait and see on rate decisions, given the the uncertainty, per Reuters.Key takeaways"The impact of tariffs on the Fed's mandates is top of mind.""The risks to Fed's mandates depends on policy choices by the administration that have not been made.""US could face a one-time increase in the price level from tariffs, need to be sure that does not become a sustained increase in inflation.""Will keep policy in a place to be sure inflation expectations remain anchored.""So far the labor market has been very resilient.""It is too early to tell how the labor market will be effected by administration policies.""There are no active conversations about changing the ample reserve operating framework.""At a time when financial markets are changing, it is important the Fed stays focused on its mission.""The downgrade will be treated the same as other incoming data, with focus on implications for jobs and inflation."Market reactionThe US Dollar Index stays on the back foot following these comments and was last seen losing 0.7% on the day at 100.26. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
16:37 NZD/USD recovers above 0.5900 as traders weigh US downgrade, mixed New Zealand data
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is recovering firmly above the 0.5900 mark agains the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, last seen trading around 0.5910, up nearly 0.50% on the day. The NZD/USD pair draws support from broad US Dollar weakness following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD edges higher on Monday, but stalls near the previous day’s high.New Zealand’s services sector contracts further in April as the PSI index drops to 48.5.Q1 producer prices rise sharply in New Zealand, with inputs rising by 2.9% and outputs by 2.1%.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is recovering firmly above the 0.5900 mark agains the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, last seen trading around 0.5910, up nearly 0.50% on the day. The NZD/USD pair draws support from broad US Dollar weakness following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating. However, the pair is struggling to break above the previous day’s high, as mixed domestic data weighs on sentiment toward the New Zealand Dollar.The latest Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) fell to 48.5 in April from 49.1 in March, marking the lowest level since November and reinforcing signs of continued contraction in New Zealand’s service sector.BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel noted, “For all the commentary around the economic recovery, the PSI is a good reminder that current conditions are extremely challenging. New Zealand’s PSI remains weaker than all our key trading partners. At 48.5, it’s consistent with a service sector still moving backwards.”On the inflation front, the Producer Price Index (PPI) surged in the first quarter. Input prices jumped 2.9% QoQ, rebounding from a 0.9% drop in Q4, while output prices rose 2.1%, reversing a 0.1% decline. Both figures marked the strongest increases since Q2 2022, reflecting rising cost pressures in the economy.Looking ahead, traders will focus on a busy domestic economic data calendar that could influence sentiment toward the New Zealand Dollar. On Wednesday, the trade balance figures will offer insight into export and import dynamics amid a weakening global demand environment. This will be followed by the government’s annual budget release on Thursday, expected to slash 2025 baseline spending to NZ$1.3 billion from NZ$2.4 billion, according to Radio New Zealand. The week concludes with the Q1 Retail Sales report on Friday, a key indicator of consumer spending that could shape market expectations around future RBNZ policy decisions.Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains under pressure near the 100.00 mark after Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating to “Aa1” on Friday. Traders will closely monitor speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials today, such as Fed Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan and President of the Fed Bank of Minneapolis Neel Kashkari, for insights into the US monetary policy trajectory. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is recovering firmly above the 0.5900 mark agains the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, last seen trading around 0.5910, up nearly 0.50% on the day. The NZD/USD pair draws support from broad US Dollar weakness following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating. However, the pair is struggling to break above the previous day’s high, as mixed domestic data weighs on sentiment toward the New Zealand Dollar.The latest Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) fell to 48.5 in April from 49.1 in March, marking the lowest level since November and reinforcing signs of continued contraction in New Zealand’s service sector.BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel noted, “For all the commentary around the economic recovery, the PSI is a good reminder that current conditions are extremely challenging. New Zealand’s PSI remains weaker than all our key trading partners. At 48.5, it’s consistent with a service sector still moving backwards.”On the inflation front, the Producer Price Index (PPI) surged in the first quarter. Input prices jumped 2.9% QoQ, rebounding from a 0.9% drop in Q4, while output prices rose 2.1%, reversing a 0.1% decline. Both figures marked the strongest increases since Q2 2022, reflecting rising cost pressures in the economy.Looking ahead, traders will focus on a busy domestic economic data calendar that could influence sentiment toward the New Zealand Dollar. On Wednesday, the trade balance figures will offer insight into export and import dynamics amid a weakening global demand environment. This will be followed by the government’s annual budget release on Thursday, expected to slash 2025 baseline spending to NZ$1.3 billion from NZ$2.4 billion, according to Radio New Zealand. The week concludes with the Q1 Retail Sales report on Friday, a key indicator of consumer spending that could shape market expectations around future RBNZ policy decisions.Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains under pressure near the 100.00 mark after Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating to “Aa1” on Friday. Traders will closely monitor speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials today, such as Fed Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan and President of the Fed Bank of Minneapolis Neel Kashkari, for insights into the US monetary policy trajectory. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
16:21 USD/JPY can hold around 145 on a 1-to-3-month view – Rabobank
At the end of last week, Japanese Finance Minister Kato indicated that he would look to talk about FX with US Treasury Secretary Bessent this week. This has spurred investors to move back into long JPY positions.
At the end of last week, Japanese Finance Minister Kato indicated that he would look to talk about FX with US Treasury Secretary Bessent this week. This has spurred investors to move back into long JPY positions. On a 5-day view, the JPY is the best performing G10 currency, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes. Scope for a move to USD/JPY 140 on a 12-month view"From Japan’s point of view, the most important element of its trade talks with the US is likely the issue of concessions for its auto exporters. While Japan has a strong hand in the trade talks given its significant FDI into the US, the timing of Japan’s Upper House election means that the government will be under pressure not to offer the US too many concessions. Due to inflation risks, it is possible that the MoF would not be too averse to a moderately stronger value for the JPY over the medium-term, although it is not clear how this would be implemented.""While Uchida’s comments were encouraging for JPY bulls, last week’s release of weak Q1 GDP data (which showed the economy shrinking for the first time in a year), underscores the difficult position of BoJ policymakers. In view of the headwinds to growth coming from Trump’s tariffs, the market is currently only priced for around 12 bps of rate hikes on a 6-month view." "While we see risk that USD/JPY could hold around the 145 level on a 1-to-3-month view, we continue to see scope for a move to USD/JPY 140 on a 12-month view on the assumption that the BoJ will be able to gradually tighten monetary conditions further this cycle."
16:01 Fed’s Williams flags cautious optimism amid lingering uncertainty
New York Fed President John Williams struck a balanced tone in his latest remarks, highlighting strength in recent US data while acknowledging steady uncertainty around trade.
New York Fed President John Williams struck a balanced tone in his latest remarks, highlighting strength in recent US data while acknowledging steady uncertainty around trade.Key QuotesRecent economic data has been very good.The labour market is pretty much in balance.First quarter growth was unusual on trade issues.Inflation has been coming down slowly and gradually.Key word for economy is uncertainty.Monetary policy is in a good place.Fed rate policy is well positioned, is slightly restrictive.Some forward looking indicators are signaling concern.Trade is a particular point of uncertainty.Many firms, households in wait-and-see mode.Fed has a ways to go in shrinking its balance sheet.Fed balance sheet drawdown not affecting market prices.Dollar remains the world's reserve currency.Global invetors still see US as a place to invest.We are not seeing major changes in investor interest in Treasury bonds.Consumers are still in good shape.
15:55 White House’s Hassett: Moody’s decision is backward-looking
White House’s economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, hinted at the likelihood that further trade deals could be in the offing.
White House’s economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, hinted at the likelihood that further trade deals could be in the offing.Key QuotesI would not be surprised if there are more trade deals this week.We'll keep a close eye on what the Chinese have agreed to.The economy will continue to take off.Moody's decision is backward-looking.
15:28 Mexican Peso steadies as Moody’s downgrade pressures the US Dollar
The Mexican Peso (MXN) remains firm against the US Dollar (USD) as markets react to renewed uncertainty following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating. The decision to lower the sovereign rating to AA1 from AAA has prompted a reassessment of the US Dollar’s status.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Mexican Peso strengthens against the US Dollar as the Moody’s downgrade on US debt weighs on the Greenback.The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to review the discount rate on Monday, the rate at which it charges commercial banks.USD/MXN remains cautious below critical psychological resistance at 19.50.The Mexican Peso (MXN) remains firm against the US Dollar (USD) as markets react to renewed uncertainty following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating. The decision to lower the sovereign rating to AA1 from AAA has prompted a reassessment of the US Dollar’s status. While the MXN slightly benefits from the USD’s weakness, the broader risk-off tone in the market causes the Mexican currency to fall against other peers such as the Euro (EUR), the Pound Sterling (GBP), or the Australian Dollar (AUD).While the Greenback has retained its global reserve status and safe-haven appeal, mounting concerns over trade tensions, tariff instability, and a deteriorating fiscal outlook are weighing on sentiment. Structural headwinds, including ballooning US debt and subdued growth prospects, have tempered interest rate expectations and contributed to the Greenback’s broad weakness.At the time of writing, USD/MXN is trading near 19.43, down 0.12% on the day. The former psychological support at 19.50 has now turned into a resistance barrier, with market participants watching to see whether the Peso can sustain its upward momentum.Mexican Peso daily digest: USD pressured by Moody’s downgrade and Fed focusMoody’s became the latest major credit agency to downgrade the US sovereign rating, triggering a rise in Treasury yields and a slump in the DXY US Dollar Index.As perceived credit risk rises, the US must offer higher interest rates to attract investors who might otherwise shift capital to alternative safe-haven assets. While rising yields tend to be supportive for the USD, the broader context of fiscal instability has the potential to weigh on the Greenback.Comments from Fed speakers throughout the day may provide insights into the trajectory of US monetary policy, influencing the performance of the US Dollar against global counterparts, including USD/MXN. Five Fed officials are on the agenda: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, New York Fed President John Williams, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. Persistent trade tensions between Mexico and the United States continue to create downside risks for the Peso. With roughly 80% of Mexican exports directed toward the US, any disruption or tariff-related uncertainty could magnify market volatility in the pair.Mexican Peso Technical Analysis: USD/MXN lingers as bulls and bears battle below 19.50USDD/MXN continues to consolidate within a narrow range, holding below the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at 19.51, which acts as dynamic resistance. The pair remains capped beneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the October–February rally at 19.72, reinforcing the broader bearish bias. Despite repeated attempts to reclaim higher ground, price action remains confined within a consolidation zone marked between 19.40 and 19.70, with a clear downside tilt.USD/MXN daily chartA decisive break below 19.40 — the lower bound of the current range — could expose the May swing low and key support at 19.30. On the upside, bulls would need a daily close above 19.72 to shift momentum and target the 38.2% retracement level at 19.98, followed by the psychological 20.00 barrier.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) flattens at 41.07, signaling slight bearish momentum and increasing the risk of a continuation lower. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
14:42 US Dollar faces selling pressure after Moody’s US downgrade
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is on the back foot on Monday and trades around 100.40 at the time of writing. The DXY is undergoing some selling pressure with the Greenback losing some support and trust in markets again.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Dollar declines on Monday after rating agency Moody’s surprised markets on Friday. Expect to see some fallout still, while the Trump administration will try to convince markets with another trade deal or a Ukraine breakthrough. The US Dollar Index looks pressured, heading back to 100.00The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is on the back foot on Monday and trades around 100.40 at the time of writing. The DXY is undergoing some selling pressure with the Greenback losing some support and trust in markets again. The fact that Moody’s announced on Friday that it downgraded the United States' (US) credit rating to 'AA1' from 'AAA' and said in its report that “while we recognize the US’ significant economic and financial strengths, we believe these no longer fully counterbalance the decline in fiscal metrics,” Moody’s calls out what several analysts have already pointed out since US President Donald Trump enforced tariffs, Reuters reports. It will be interesting to hear what the Federal Reserve (Fed) thinks from a slew of Fed speakers this Monday. With this downgrade from Moody’s, yields will increase as market participants demand a small risk premium before considering buying US debt. That could be a setback for the Fed if the central bank wants to cut its benchmark rate, with a possible dislocation between the actual monetary policy and where US rates are in the normal bidding market. Daily digest market movers: Bostic says ripple effect to take placeAn army of Fed speakers stands ready on an otherwise dry Monday in terms of US economic data:At 12:30 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic spoke on a panel at the Atlanta Fed's 2025 Financial Markets Conference in Florida. Fed's Bostic said the downgrade could have a ripple effect through the economy. He went on by saying that another 3 to 6 months waiting time is needed to see how uncertainty settles. The longer tariff transition takes, the more it will impact consumer behavior, Bloomberg reports. At 12:45 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank Vice Chair Philip Jefferson delivers a speech about liquidity facilities at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in Florida.In that same timeframe, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams moderates a discussion at the MBA's Secondary and Capital Markets Conference in New York.At 17:15 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan delivers opening remarks at the 2025 Financial Markets Conference in Florida.Closing off at 17:30 GMT, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Neel Kashkari participates in a conversation at the Minnesota Young American Leaders Program (MYALP) at the University of Minnesota.Equities are not reacting well to the fact that the biggest developed economy in the world is seeing a downgrade on its credit rating. European equities are in the red while US Futures are substantially lower. The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June’s meeting at just 8.3%. Further ahead, the July 30 decision sees odds for rates being lower than current levels at 36.8%.The US 10-year yields trade around 4.51%, a steep rally from 4.3%, the low of the past Friday. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Another warning signThe US Dollar Index is losing its creditworthiness and its safe-haven status. Moody’s only confirmed what several analysts have long predicted since the Trump administration went all-in on tariffs. The US Dollar is no longer stable, and it is only a matter of time before that translates into the DXY.On the upside, 101.90 is the first big resistance again. It already acted as a pivotal level throughout December 2023 and as a base for the inverted head-and-shoulders (H&S) formation during the summer of 2024. The 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 101.94 reinforces this area as strong resistance. In case Dollar bulls push the DXY even higher, the 103.18 pivotal level comes into play.On the other hand, the previous resistance at 100.22 is now acting as firm support, followed by the year-to-date low of 97.91 and the pivotal level of 97.73. Further below, a relatively thin technical support comes in at 96.94 before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
14:38 WTI slumps to near $61 as Moody’s US downgrade sparks US bond yields
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, tumbles to near $61.00 on Monday. The Oil price faces selling pressure since opening the week due to a significant increase in US Treasury yields.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Oil price faces a sharp selling pressure as US bond yields have risen sharply after Moody’s downgraded US Sovereign rating.10-year US Treasury yields surge to near 4.54%.China’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales grew moderately in April.West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, tumbles to near $61.00 on Monday. The Oil price faces selling pressure since opening the week due to a significant increase in US Treasury yields. Interest on US government securities has surged substantially as Moody’s Rating has downgraded the United States (US) long-term issuer and senior unsecured securities from Aaa to Aa1.10-year US Treasury yields are up 2.3% to near 4.54%, a move that could limit the administration from increasing fiscal expenditure, which will weaken the demand for Oil.The report from Moody’s rating showed that the agency downgraded the US Sovereign credit rating in the wake of mounting debt, which has been a deteriorating fiscal status. Additionally, the credit rating firm stated that swelling government debt and interest payments, now materially above peers in the same rating tier, forced it to revise the credit rating.The US downgrade has resulted in a sharp decline in the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, plummets to near 100.20.Meanwhile, weak China data has also weighed on the Oil price. Earlier in the day, the National Bureau of Statistics of China reported that Industrial Production and Retail Sales grew at a moderate pace in April. Industrial Production rose by 6.1% year-on-year, slower than 7.7% growth in March. In the same period, Retail Sales expanded moderately by 5.1%, compared to estimates of 5.5% and the prior release of 5.9%. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
14:34 Fed's Bostic: Inflation not moving to target as fast as anticipated
In an interview with CNBC on Monday, Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) President Raphael Bostic said that inflation is not moving to target as fast as anticipated and reiterated that he leans toward only one rate cut this year because it will take time to understand the impact of tariffs, per Reuters.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
In an interview with CNBC on Monday, Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) President Raphael Bostic said that inflation is not moving to target as fast as anticipated and reiterated that he leans toward only one rate cut this year because it will take time to understand the impact of tariffs, per Reuters.Key takeaways"Moody's downgrade will cut across economics, financial markets.""Downgrade will have implications for cost of capital, could ripple through economy.""Will have to wait and see about impact of downgrade on demand for US debt.""The Fed will have to determine how the downgrade effects an outlook that is already in flux.""It is unclear if consumers today can take on the full cost of tariffs given the state of household balance sheets, recent inflation.""Number of rate cuts this year depends on how things turn out, the details of the tariffs will matter."""There is a scenario where tariffs become less of a story over time.""Treasury markets are functioning quite well.""Uncertainty means there is higher risk, the Fed only controls one part of the price of capital.""As things get more expensive, it changes the choices policymakers, households and businesses face, that will influence the path of the economy.""Right now see more risk of higher inflation than the employment side of the mandate.""Inflation expectations are moving in a troubling way.""Have not seen much movement on the jobs side, firms say they don't have plans for large layoffs.""Decline in sentiment is not yet playing out in the marketplace."Market reactionThe US Dollar stays under bearish pressure following these comments. At the time of press, the USD Index was down 0.75% on the day at 100.22. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
14:16 China: April activity overshadowed by tariff war – Standard Chartered
Activity data points to softening momentum from Q1, but industrial production has held up. Frontloaded exports and macro policy implementation to continue to support growth in Q2. Property market remains the key drag for the domestic economy.
Activity data points to softening momentum from Q1, but industrial production has held up. Frontloaded exports and macro policy implementation to continue to support growth in Q2. Property market remains the key drag for the domestic economy. Tariff truce lowers likelihood of additional stimulus, in our view, but uncertainty remains high in H2, Standard Chartered's economists report. Resilience tested"Overall, April data showed resilience amid the tariff war. Industrial production remained solid, while retail sales and fixed asset investment came in slightly below expectations. Although April data suggests slowing momentum from Q1, activity has held up well; this bodes well for c.5% growth in Q2 (vs 5.4% y/y in Q1) on a favourable base effect.""Frontloaded exports and faster stimulus deployment have likely contributed to this resilience. Overall, exports held up well in April. Data shows strong growth in retail sales of goods subsidised as part of the government’s consumer goods trade-in programme and solid expansion in infrastructure and manufacturing investment, supported by frontloaded government bond issuance. These factors likely will remain supportive for growth in Q2.""However, US tariff uncertainty remains and China’s housing market is still a drag. The recent tariff reduction has eased pressure on China’s growth outlook, thus lowering the likelihood of additional stimulus. The stimulus package announced at the National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting in March, if fully implemented, should be able to largely offset the impact of tariffs. The Politburo meeting in July likely will re-evaluate the growth outlook based on trade negotiation progress and assess if further stimulus is needed."
14:11 USD/JPY tumbles below 145.00 as Moody’s downgrade weighs on the US Dollar
The Japanese Yen (JPY) extends its winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) into a fifth consecutive day on Monday, with USD/JPY falling below the 145.00 psychological mark to trade near 144.70 during the European session, driven by broad-based USD weakness and fresh hawkish signals from the Bank
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}Japanese Yen extends winning streak to five consecutive days against the US Dollar amid risk-off flows.Moody’s cuts US credit rating, weighing heavily in the US Dollar with the DXY index heading to 100.00.BoJ signals more rate hikes if recovery stays on track.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) extends its winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) into a fifth consecutive day on Monday, with USD/JPY falling below the 145.00 psychological mark to trade near 144.70 during the European session, driven by broad-based USD weakness and fresh hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).Late Friday, Moody’s Ratings cut the US long-term credit rating by one notch — to “Aa1” from “Aaa” — citing persistent concerns over the country’s mounting fiscal deficit and ballooning debt, which recently crossed the $36 trillion mark.“Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs,” said Moody’s in the report.Despite the downgrade, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down its significance, saying in an interview with CNN, “I don't put much credence in Moody’s,” reflecting the administration’s continued confidence in the resilience of the US economy.The downgrade weighed heavily on the Greenback, pushing the US Dollar Index (DXY) near the key 100.00 mark, reinforcing bearish sentiment across major USD pairs.Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen draws support from hawkish remarks by BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida. Speaking to parliament, Uchida said the BoJ will continue to raise interest rates if the economy rebounds from the expected impact of US tariffs.“If our forecast materializes, we will continue to raise our policy rate,” Uchida stated. However, he warned that the outlook remains clouded by “extremely high uncertainty” surrounding global trade policy and its broader economic impact. “We will determine without pre-conception whether the economy and prices move in line with our forecast,” he added, according to Reuters.Uchida’s comments reinforce the BoJ’s cautious but hawkish bias, contrasting sharply with the growing dovish tilt in US monetary policy expectations. The Japanese Yen has gained traction in recent days as investors reassess the US macro outlook following Moody’s credit rating downgrade.Looking ahead today, traders will closely monitor speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, for insights into the central bank's policy outlook. On the Japanese front, the Ministry of Finance is set to release trade balance data on Wednesday, and the Statistics Bureau will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.04% -0.76% -0.32% -0.18% -0.63% -0.54% -0.47% EUR 1.04% 0.03% 0.56% 0.69% 0.31% 0.33% 0.34% GBP 0.76% -0.03% 0.23% 0.66% 0.28% 0.31% 0.32% JPY 0.32% -0.56% -0.23% 0.13% -0.16% -0.03% -0.10% CAD 0.18% -0.69% -0.66% -0.13% -0.44% -0.36% -0.35% AUD 0.63% -0.31% -0.28% 0.16% 0.44% 0.02% 0.05% NZD 0.54% -0.33% -0.31% 0.03% 0.36% -0.02% 0.02% CHF 0.47% -0.34% -0.32% 0.10% 0.35% -0.05% -0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The Japanese Yen (JPY) extends its winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) into a fifth consecutive day on Monday, with USD/JPY falling below the 145.00 psychological mark to trade near 144.70 during the European session, driven by broad-based USD weakness and fresh hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).Late Friday, Moody’s Ratings cut the US long-term credit rating by one notch — to “Aa1” from “Aaa” — citing persistent concerns over the country’s mounting fiscal deficit and ballooning debt, which recently crossed the $36 trillion mark.“Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs,” said Moody’s in the report.Despite the downgrade, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down its significance, saying in an interview with CNN, “I don't put much credence in Moody’s,” reflecting the administration’s continued confidence in the resilience of the US economy.The downgrade weighed heavily on the Greenback, pushing the US Dollar Index (DXY) near the key 100.00 mark, reinforcing bearish sentiment across major USD pairs.Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen draws support from hawkish remarks by BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida. Speaking to parliament, Uchida said the BoJ will continue to raise interest rates if the economy rebounds from the expected impact of US tariffs.“If our forecast materializes, we will continue to raise our policy rate,” Uchida stated. However, he warned that the outlook remains clouded by “extremely high uncertainty” surrounding global trade policy and its broader economic impact. “We will determine without pre-conception whether the economy and prices move in line with our forecast,” he added, according to Reuters.Uchida’s comments reinforce the BoJ’s cautious but hawkish bias, contrasting sharply with the growing dovish tilt in US monetary policy expectations. The Japanese Yen has gained traction in recent days as investors reassess the US macro outlook following Moody’s credit rating downgrade.Looking ahead today, traders will closely monitor speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, for insights into the central bank's policy outlook. On the Japanese front, the Ministry of Finance is set to release trade balance data on Wednesday, and the Statistics Bureau will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.04% -0.76% -0.32% -0.18% -0.63% -0.54% -0.47% EUR 1.04% 0.03% 0.56% 0.69% 0.31% 0.33% 0.34% GBP 0.76% -0.03% 0.23% 0.66% 0.28% 0.31% 0.32% JPY 0.32% -0.56% -0.23% 0.13% -0.16% -0.03% -0.10% CAD 0.18% -0.69% -0.66% -0.13% -0.44% -0.36% -0.35% AUD 0.63% -0.31% -0.28% 0.16% 0.44% 0.02% 0.05% NZD 0.54% -0.33% -0.31% 0.03% 0.36% -0.02% 0.02% CHF 0.47% -0.34% -0.32% 0.10% 0.35% -0.05% -0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
14:05 USD: Moodys follows eventually with downgrade – MUFG
The US Dollar (USD) is softer and longer-term yields are higher with the S&P future down 1.0% suggesting the potential for a day of triple selling of US assets that is being driven by the decision of Moodys to downgrade the sovereign rating of the US from the top Aaa rating to Aa1.
The US Dollar (USD) is softer and longer-term yields are higher with the S&P future down 1.0% suggesting the potential for a day of triple selling of US assets that is being driven by the decision of Moodys to downgrade the sovereign rating of the US from the top Aaa rating to Aa1. The downgrade was coming and Moodys was the last of the big three to lower the sovereign rating of the US from the top level. S&P did it first back in 2011 followed by Fitch in 2023. Moodys had recently provided an update on its position of the US that signalled a downgrade was coming, MUFG's FX analyst Derek Halpenny notes. Moody’s downgrade highlights US fiscal risks"Moodys cited 'the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns'. It also added that it did not believe multi-year reductions in deficits were likely from current fiscal proposals under consideration. The downgrade came just before a deal over the weekend that resulted in the House Budget Committee approving President Trump’s tax and spending package. The deal was reached following agreement with Republican hardliners for quicker cuts to Medicaid health coverage and a faster phase-out of clean energy tax breaks and subsidies. Challenges remain and further changes to the bill seems likely with Senate opposition to elements of the bill likely to be the biggest issue ahead. The Moodys downgrade will further reinforce fiscal hawks of the needs to offer a credible, achievable bill.""This downgrade, while the final one from the big three ratings agencies could well prove the most significant. Episode of triple selling of US assets have been few and far between in recent years. Our analysis of these episodes tend to point to further US dollar selling ahead. The episode in April on such a scale was the first since 2001. The current bill agreed in the House over the weekend, even assuming it is toned down, will ensure the US continues to run deficits much higher than in other major developed economies and in the region of between 5%-7% of GDP. That will considerably increase the risk of counter-productive moves higher in yields that ultimately crowds out the growth benefit. The main cost of the bill remains extending the current tax cuts and is therefore more about avoiding a big tax hike that hits growth than providing a boost to growth.""We published a new trade idea of short USD/JPY on Friday that was of course prior to the Moodys’ downgrade. Risk aversion is higher now than expected with Asian equities mostly lower. A steeper yield curve in the US and continued questions over confidence in US assets will reinforce downside momentum in USD/JPY. BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida repeated again today the intention of the BoJ to hike the policy rate if the BoJ’s economic outlook is realised."
14:02 FXS Fed Sentiment Index stays in hawkish territory as markets await fresh comments
The Federal Reserve (Fed) left the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% following the May policy meeting, as widely anticipated. In the policy statement, the Fed noted that the economic outlook uncertainty has increased further.
.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}FXStreet Fed Sentiment Index remains in hawkish territory after May meeting.Several Fed policymakers will be delivering speeches later in the day.Markets see virtually no chance of a Fed rate cut in June.The Federal Reserve (Fed) left the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% following the May policy meeting, as widely anticipated. In the policy statement, the Fed noted that the economic outlook uncertainty has increased further. While speaking to reporters in the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell argued that the right thing to do in the current environment is to await further clarity.FXStreet (FXS) Fed Sentiment Index declined slightly in the immediate aftermath of the Fed meeting but remained in the hawkish territory well above 100. Although the FXS Fed Sentiment Index continued to stretch lower, it is yet to point to a noticeable change in the Fed's overall hawkish tone.The data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed earlier in the month that the annual inflation, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), softened to 2.5% in April from 2.4%. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted that the inflation data was consistent with further progress toward the 2% goal but said that it was still not clear whether an increase in inflation because of tariffs would be temporary or persistent. On a more hawkish note, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that he was projecting the Fed to lower the policy rate just once in 2025 amid uncertainty. Related news Forecasting the upcoming week: Fed speakers and flash PMIs take the driver’s seat Powell: Inflation could be 'more volatile' Fed's Barr: The US economy is on solid footing, though trade policies cloud the outlook
Bostic is scheduled to speak again on Monday. Later in the day, New York Fed President John Williams, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will be delivering speeches as well.The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets see little to no chance of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in June. Meanwhile, the probability of the Fed lowering the policy rate at least twice in 2025 stays around 70%, suggesting that the US Dollar (USD) could gather strength in case Fed officials voice their preference for a single rate cut. The USD stays under pressure to start the week, with the USD Index losing more than 0.8% on the day at 100.12 at the time of writing. Moody's decision to lower the United States' credit rating late last week seems to be causing the USD to weaken against its peers on Monday. The rating agency announced that it downgraded the US' credit rating to 'AA1' from 'AAA', citing concerns about the growing $36 trillion debt pile. "Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs," Moody's explained, per Reuters. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
14:00 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Jumps to near 0.6450 on US downgrade
The AUD/USD pair gains sharply to near 0.6450 during European trading hours on Monday. The Aussie pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms after Moody’s downgraded the United States (US) Sovereign credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa in the wake of mounting debt levels.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD climbs to near 0.6450 due to a significant weakness in the US Dollar.Moody's downgraded the US long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings of the US from Aaa to Aa1.Investors look for more evidence whether US President Trump will vist China for trade talks.The AUD/USD pair gains sharply to near 0.6450 during European trading hours on Monday. The Aussie pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms after Moody’s downgraded the United States (US) Sovereign credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa in the wake of mounting debt levels.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, plummets to near 100.20, the lowest level seen in a week. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.07% -0.80% -0.36% -0.16% -0.62% -0.53% -0.50% EUR 1.07% 0.03% 0.54% 0.75% 0.35% 0.38% 0.35% GBP 0.80% -0.03% 0.21% 0.73% 0.33% 0.34% 0.33% JPY 0.36% -0.54% -0.21% 0.20% -0.10% 0.03% -0.09% CAD 0.16% -0.75% -0.73% -0.20% -0.45% -0.36% -0.40% AUD 0.62% -0.35% -0.33% 0.10% 0.45% 0.03% 0.00% NZD 0.53% -0.38% -0.34% -0.03% 0.36% -0.03% -0.03% CHF 0.50% -0.35% -0.33% 0.09% 0.40% -0.01% 0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Meanwhile, US credit erosion has sparked bond yields. 10-year US Treasury yields surge to near 4.54%, with investors increasing risk premium.On the Australia front, investors seek fresh cues on progress in trade talks between the US and China. Given that Australia relies heavily on its exports to Beijing, progress in US-China trade discussions is also favorable for the Australian Dollar (AUD).Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump responded positively after he was asked in an interview with Fox News about whether he would visit China for direct trade talks with President Xi Jinping.AUD/USD consolidates in a tight range of 0.6340-0.6515 for a month. The pair wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.6410, indicating a sideways trend.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates around 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI breaks above that level.More upside would appear towards the November 25 high of 0.6550 and the round-level resistance of 0.6600 if the pair if the pair breaks above the May 7 high of 0.6515.On the flip side, a downside move below the March 4 low of 0.6187 towards the February low of 0.6087, followed by the psychological support of 0.6000.AUD/USD daily chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
13:57 USD/CNH: Expected to trade in a sideways range of 7.1990/7.2190 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a sideways range of 7.1990/7.2190. In the longer run, a breach of 7.2330 would indicate that the likelihood of USD declining to 7.1700 has faded, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a sideways range of 7.1990/7.2190. In the longer run, a breach of 7.2330 would indicate that the likelihood of USD declining to 7.1700 has faded, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Above 7.2330, the likelihood of USD declining to 7.1700 to fade24-HOUR VIEW: "Following last Thursday’s price movements, we indicated on Friday that 'the quiet price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect USD to trade sideways. Expected range for today: 7.1970/7.2190.' Our view of sideways trading was not wrong, as USD traded between 7.1954 and 7.2130, closing modestly higher by 0.07% at 7.2099. There has been no increase in either downward or upward momentum. Today, we expect USD to trade sideways between 7.1990 and 7.2190." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have held a negative USD view since early this month (as annotated in the chart below). Tracking the price movements, we highlighted last Friday (16 May, spot at 7.2040) that USD “has not been able to make significant headway on the downside. However, only a breach of 7.2330 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the likelihood of USD declining to 7.1700 has faded.” Our view remains unchanged."
13:54 USD/CNH holds below key resistance – BBH
The Chinese yuan remains under pressure as April’s economic data came in softer than expected, reinforcing calls for further policy support to sustain growth, BBH FX analysts report.
The Chinese yuan remains under pressure as April’s economic data came in softer than expected, reinforcing calls for further policy support to sustain growth, BBH FX analysts report. China's April data misses expectations"USD/CNH is firmer but holding under its 200-day moving average at 7.2235. China’s April real sector data was soft. Industrial production rose 6.1% y/y (consensus: 5.7%) vs. 7.7% in March. Retail sales grew 5.1% y/y (consensus: 5.8%) vs. 5.9% in March and fixed-asset investment eased 4.0% YTD (consensus: 4.2%) vs. 4.2% in March." "More policy easing and fiscal reforms that lead households to gain a greater piece of the economic pie are necessary to support growth."
13:40 USD/JPY: Major support at 144.50 is unlikely to come under threat – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could drop below 144.90 against Japanese Yen (JPY); the major support at 144.50 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, USD remains in consolidation, but likely within a tighter range of 144.50/147.30, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
US Dollar (USD) could drop below 144.90 against Japanese Yen (JPY); the major support at 144.50 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, USD remains in consolidation, but likely within a tighter range of 144.50/147.30, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD remains in consolidation24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected USD to 'grind lower and test 144.95' last Friday. However, we indicated that 'a sustained break below this level seems unlikely.' We added, 'The major support at 144.50 is also unlikely to come under threat.' USD edged to a low of 144.90 in the early London session, rebounding to close largely unchanged at 145.62 (-0.03%). USD traded on a soft note in early Asian trade today. Downward momentum is building, and USD could drop below 144.90. However, the major support at 144.50 is unlikely to come under threat. Resistance is at 145.80, followed by 146.30." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our update from last Thursday (15 May, spot at 146.80), we indicated that USD 'has likely entered a consolidation phase.' We expected USD to 'trade in a range of 144.50/148.50.' USD remains in a consolidation, but we now tighten the range to 144.50/147.30. Looking ahead, should USD break clearly below 144.50, it could trigger a deeper decline."
13:37 China: April data show hit from trade war pre-Geneva – ABN AMRO
April data confirm hit from trade war escalation last month. Growth momentum expected to pick up again following Geneva truce, but uncertainty remains, ABN AMRO's economist Arjen van Dijkhuizen reports.
April data confirm hit from trade war escalation last month. Growth momentum expected to pick up again following Geneva truce, but uncertainty remains, ABN AMRO's economist Arjen van Dijkhuizen reports. April data confirm hit from trade war escalation last month"China’s monthly activity data for April published this morning showed the impact from the escalation of the US-China trade war last month. Following an acceleration in March helped by trade frontloading and stimulus, annual growth of industrial production, retail sales and fixed investment came down in April again. Industrial production slowed to 6.1% y/y, although coming in a bit better than expected (March: 7.7%, consensus: 5.7%), and to 0.2% m/m s.a. (March: 0.4%). Retail sales growth slowed more than expected, falling to 5.1% y/y (March: 5.9%, consensus: 5.8%); in monthly terms, retail sales slowed to 0.2% m/m s.a. (March: 0.5%)." "This suggests that the supply side remains stronger than the demand side, with domestic demand impacted by the property sector downturn and weak confidence. Fixed investment slowed to 4.0% y/y in January-April (Jan-March/consensus: 4.2%). Meanwhile, the April data confirmed that the property sector is not yet out of the woods, with the annual contraction of property investment and residential property sales deepening. Despite the slowdown in activity shown in the April data, the surveyed jobless rate in urban areas edged a bit lower, to 5.1% (March/consensus: 5.2%).""Going forward, we expect growth momentum to pick up again in the coming months, following the truce agreed by the US and China in Geneva last week – with bilateral tariffs temporarily down to 30% (on Chinese exports) and 10% (on US exports), from 145% and 125%, respectively. We still expect China’s loan prime rates to be cut by 10bp tomorrow, mirroring similar policy rate cuts earlier this month, and in line with consensus. All in all, upside risks to our growth forecasts have risen, although trade-related uncertainty will remain. We will publish revised growth forecasts in our May Global Monthly later this month."
13:34 Who has to pay the US tariffs? – Commerzbank
Economics normally suffers from a painful deficiency: unlike biologists, physicists, psychologists, and other scientists, economists are generally unable to conduct experiments.
Economics normally suffers from a painful deficiency: unlike biologists, physicists, psychologists, and other scientists, economists are generally unable to conduct experiments. For example, Christine Lagarde is not going to raise or lower the ECB's key interest rate just so that we can better calibrate our econometric models. This makes economics difficult, but also exciting. Sometimes, however, chance provides us with situations that are pretty close to an experiment. One that we could hardly have imagined better for testing our theories, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. Trust in US Dollar and Treasuries is at risk"If the US president were right in his earlier theory that foreign exporters bear the tax burden of US import tariffs, then when new tariffs are imposed, the prices of imports should fall by exactly the same amount as the tariff rate. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published import prices for April, i.e., for a period largely after 'Liberation Day,' the day on which the US president significantly raised import tariffs. And lo and behold: import prices did not fall. In fact, they rose very slightly in April: by 0.1%.""People still ask me what trade policy plan this US administration is pursuing. I am firmly convinced that it has no plan. There are a few vague preconceptions ('tariffs are good'), drastic measures based on them (“Liberation Day”), and then abrupt adjustments when disastrous consequences become apparent here and there—as rational observers could have foreseen.""There is a growing risk that measures will eventually be taken whose consequences are irreversible. US government bonds are a 'safe haven' because everyone can trust that everyone else considers them a 'safe haven.' Once this trust is lost, it will not return quickly. The same applies to the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. And to confidence in the independence of the Fed. In all cases, there are tipping points beyond which there is no going back to the status quo ante."
13:22 NZD/USD: Expected to edge higher and test 0.5920 – UOB Group
There has been a tentative buildup in upward momentum; NZD is expected to edge higher and test 0.5920. In the longer run, outlook remains mixed, but NZD is likely to trade in a tighter range of 0.5835/0.5985, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
There has been a tentative buildup in upward momentum; NZD is expected to edge higher and test 0.5920. In the longer run, outlook remains mixed, but NZD is likely to trade in a tighter range of 0.5835/0.5985, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Outlook for NZD remains mixed24-HOUR VIEW: "Our view for NZD to 'drift lower and test 0.5855' last Friday did not turn out. NZD traded between 0.5866 and 0.5917, closing little changed at 0.5880 (+0.08%). There has been a tentative buildup in upward momentum. Today, we expect NZD to edge higher, but as momentum is not strong, any advance is likely limited to a test of 0.5920. We do not expect the major resistance at 0.5985 to come into view. To sustain the momentum buildup, NZD must remain above 0.5860 (minor support is at 0.5875)." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Wednesday (14 May, spot at 0.5935), we highlighted that 'the recent price movements have resulted in a mixed outlook.' We added, 'for the time being, we expect NZD to trade in a 0.5835/0.6030 range.' The outlook remains mixed, but we now expect a tighter range of 0.5835/0.5985."
13:17 USD: Dollar stays soft post Moody's downgrade – ING
Late on Friday, the rating agency Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating one notch to Aa1, having had the US on a negative outlook for a year, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Late on Friday, the rating agency Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating one notch to Aa1, having had the US on a negative outlook for a year, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Below the 100.20/25 support 99.20 is the risk "The reasons for the downgrade - the failure of successive administrations to tackle deteriorating fiscal and debt metrics - are very familiar to financial markets by now. And this comes in a week when the Trump administration is trying to push another tax-cutting package through the House. Estimates suggest that this new bill will add another $3-5trn to the US debt stock over the next 10 years. Treasuries are a little softer on the news, as are US equities and the dollar. The US 10-year Treasury swap spread has drifted back out to 54bp, but is some way from the extreme 60bp reading seen in mid-April.""The link between US sovereign risk, Treasuries, and the dollar is one of capital flight. Are global investors shifting their portfolios away from the US? Data on this comes out with a lag, and Friday's release of US Treasury TIC data for March provided few clues. Foreigners were still healthy buyers of US asset markets in March, with foreign official accounts increasing their holdings of US Treasuries by $26bn. Within that, however, China's holdings of US Treasury securities fell by $19bn. Understandably, the TIC data covering events in April will be eagerly awaited when it is released in mid-June. On the subject of Treasuries, the market will be on the lookout for demand for the auction of $16bn of 20-year US Treasuries, which takes place on Wednesday.""Looking ahead this week, the US data calendar is relatively light. There are plenty of Federal Reserve speakers but given much uncertainty, we doubt they will shift current market pricing of two 25bp Fed cuts this year, starting in September. Expect a risk premium to stay in the dollar this week, with investors also on the lookout for any currency references in trade deals currently being negotiated with Asia. We've also got a G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank governors meeting taking place in Canada on Tuesday. It seems very unlikely, but any changes to the FX reference in their Communique - driven by the US Treasury - would pose a big downside risk to the dollar. DXY has intra-day support at 100.20/25, below which 99.20 is the risk."
13:14 EUR/USD soars as Greenback suffers from US Sovereign credit downgrade
EUR/USD surges to near 1.1270 during European trading hours on Monday. The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) slumps due to erosion in the United States (US) Sovereign Credit Rating.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD gains sharply to near 1.1270 as the US Dollar has been battered sharply after Moody’s Rating downgraded US Sovereign Credit to Aa1.Traders expect that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the next two policy meetings.Investors await the announcement of a potential EU-UK trade deal.EUR/USD surges to near 1.1270 during European trading hours on Monday. The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) slumps due to erosion in the United States (US) Sovereign Credit Rating. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slides to near 100.20.On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings of the US to Aa1 from Aaa. The one-notch downgrade in US Sovereign rating came on the back of mounting fiscal issues, which market experts believe the administration is unable to address in the near term. US credit erosion has resulted in a sharp increase in Treasury yields, with investors discounting the risk premium. The 10-year US Treasury yields are up 2.3% to near 4.54%, at the time of writing. Additionally, financial market participants are worried that the so-called ‘big beautiful bill’ by the White House will further boost US bond yields.Meanwhile, increasing optimism on a potential trade deal between the US and China is expected to support the US Dollar. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump affirmed positively in an interview with Fox News after he was asked whether he will visit China for direct trade talks with President Xi Jinping.On the monetary policy front, traders are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not reduce interest rates in the next two policy meetings due to elevated consumer inflation expectations in the wake of import duties imposed by US President Trump. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD gains ahead of potential EU-UK trade dealSheer strength in the EUR/USD pair is also driven by the Euro’s (EUR) outperformance against its major peers at the start of the week. The major currency pair gains ahead of the announcement of a potential trade deal between the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) later in the day, the first since the announcement of Brexit.The EU and the UK are expected to announce a trade pact across various industries, such as defense, agriculture, and energy. Strengthening economic ties between Europe’s neighbouring economies at a time when the Eurozone inflation has come down significantly, the European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered its interest rates substantially, and the German economy is on a path of fiscal reforms, which is favorable for the continent’s growth outlook.Additionally, the ECB is expected to reduce its interest rates further due to growing concerns over Eurozone growth and inflation. ECB policymaker and governor of the Belgian central bank, Pierre Wunsch, stated in an interview with the Financial Times (FT) over the weekend that interest rates would go slightly below 2% amid downside risks to inflation and growth. Wunsch warned that tariffs imposed by US President Trump have pushed “risks to inflation on the downside”. He ruled out the possibility of a “larger-than-usual interest rate cut” in the foreseeable future.The next major trigger for the Euro will be trade talks between Washington and Brussels. Meanwhile, EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič stated in an interview with the FT over the weekend that the continent intends to buy US gas, weapons and agricultural products to cut the US-EU trade deficit. Šefčovič signaled that he would meet US trade representative Jamieson Greer next month at an OECD ministerial meeting in Paris.Analysts at Capital Economics suspect that the trade deal between the EU and the US is imminent as Washington has not shown urgency in resolving trade disputes with the continent the way it has with China, Japan, and India. Another reason behind slower progress in US-EU trade talks is the difficulty for the continent in achieving consensus among the 27 member states.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD jumps to near 1.1270EUR/USD rallies to near 1.1270 at the start of the week. The near-term outlook of the pair has turned bullish as it manages to hold the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.1214.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovers strongly above 50.00 after sliding to near 40.00, suggesting increasing bullish momentum.Looking up, the April 28 high of 1.1425 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
13:06 AUD/USD: Upward momentum is still slowing – UOB Group
A breach of 0.6370 would mean that the current price movements are part of a range trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
A breach of 0.6370 would mean that the current price movements are part of a range trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. To continue to rise, AUD must break and hold above 0.651524-HOUR VIEW: "When AUD was at 0.6405 last Friday, we expected it to 'trade between 0.6380 and 0.6445.' AUD then traded within a narrower range of 0.6388/0.6436, closing largely unchanged (0.6404, -0.02%). The price action provides no fresh clues. Today, we expect AUD to trade between 0.6390 and 0.6440." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Wednesday (14 May, spot at 0.6470), we indicated that 'To continue to rise, AUD must break and hold above 0.6515.' After AUD retreated, we indicated last Friday (16 May, spot at 0.6405) that 'a breach of 0.6370 would mean that the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase.' While upward momentum is still slowing, we maintain our view for now."
12:56 AUD: RBA set to cut 25bp early Tuesday – ING
The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to cut rates tomorrow morning (06.30 CET), ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to cut rates tomorrow morning (06.30 CET), ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Room for AUD/USD upside "Markets had previously speculated on a 50bp move, but the US-China deal and a slower inflation decline compared to expectations have cemented the 25bp call. We believe the RBA will retain a good deal of caution on forward guidance, but should sound a bit more dovish, implicitly endorsing market expectations for two additional cuts in 2025 after this one." "We still see room for AUD/USD upside on the back of domestic US negatives and improved risk sentiment. We target a return to 0.650, and don't think this RBA cut will get in the way."
12:53 Gold turns positive as Moody's US downgrade sends US yields higher
Gold (XAU/USD) price remains within a tight range, trading slightly higher near $3,243 at the time of writing, with three main themes at play on Monday. Tensions are brewing in the Middle East with Israel embarking on another massive ground offensive.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price steadies on Monday after Moody’s downgraded the US's sovereign debt credit rating on Friday, sending yields higher. Some headwinds are present with President Trump set to call Russian President Putin about ending the war in Ukraine. Gold trades in a tight range, holding above $3,230 to start the week. Gold (XAU/USD) price remains within a tight range, trading slightly higher near $3,243 at the time of writing, with three main themes at play on Monday. Tensions are brewing in the Middle East with Israel embarking on another massive ground offensive. The military action comes just days after United States (US) President Donald Trump visited the Middle East, though he didn’t visit Israel. The second main driver is the bond market, where several pension funds and Fixed Income (Bonds) investors will need to reshuffle their holdings after rating agency Moody’s downgraded the US's sovereign debt credit rating after the market closed on Friday. In lowering the US rating from 'AAA' to 'Aa1', Moody's noted that successive US administrations had failed to reverse ballooning deficits and interest costs, BBC reports. This could have repercussions for the Federal Reserve(Fed) and US yields, where non-US parties will ask for higher rates in search of more guarantees before considering buying US debt. The very last driver this Monday is rather a headwind for the precious metal. US President Trump last week torpedoed peace talks in Istanbul by saying at Air Force One that no deal was possible without himself and Russian President Vladimir Putin involved. Both presidents will have a phone call on Monday to discuss the matter, and could provide headwinds for Gold if a breakthrough is materializing. Daily digest market movers: Geopolitical, trade talks, USD to drive Gold’s price A reclusive Chinese billionaire whose prescient Gold trades turned into an eye-catching windfall has now become the country’s biggest Copper bull, amassing a bet worth nearly $1 billion in a market jolted by escalating competition between the US and China, Bloomberg reports. Gold is sliding lower as traders respond to fresh uncertainty surrounding the US outlook after Moody’s lowered the nation’s sovereign credit rating. The increase in general angst levels may also be reviving concerns about the potential for lower US and global economic growth, given the drop in crude oil contracts, Bloomberg reports. “While we recognize the US’ significant economic and financial strengths, we believe these no longer fully counterbalance the decline in fiscal metrics,” Moody’s added in its statement, Reuters reports. The US 30-year yield rose to 5% on Monday after Moody’s rate cut, back to April’s levels. Gold Price Technical Analysis: What is next? Did Moody’s just put a band-aid on the wound for the US? Rather, Moody’s calling out is what several traders and analysts were predicting: the US is more quickly racking up debt than it is seeing income. At one point that needs to be addressed, and President Trump might be mad at Moody’s, there is a far greater concern: the domestic activity and economy with elevated rates and the Fed having its hands tied. On the upside, the pivotal technical level at $3,245 (April 1 high) is acting as resistance and could be difficult to reclaim. Once through there, the R1 resistance at $3,252 and the R2 resistance at $3,301 are the following levels to watch, though a major catalyst would be needed to get it there. On the other side, the daily Pivot Point stands at $3,203, in line with the $3,200 big figure. In case that level does not hold, expect a move lower to test the support area around $3,150, with the April 3 high at $3,167 and the intraday S1 support at $3,155, before the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,151.XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
12:53 Oil: Speculators buy Brent – ING
The Oil market managed a second consecutive week of gains, driven largely by tariff de-escalation. However, the market is in limbo this morning as it weighs what impact, if any, the US credit downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service will have on Oil.
The Oil market managed a second consecutive week of gains, driven largely by tariff de-escalation. However, the market is in limbo this morning as it weighs what impact, if any, the US credit downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service will have on Oil. In addition, there’s still plenty of uncertainty over how Iranian nuclear talks will play out, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Market focuses on a call between Trump and Putin"For today, much of the attention is on a scheduled call between President Trump and President Putin about the Russia-Ukraine war. The market will be on the lookout for any signs of potential de-escalation. Fundamentally, though, even if we were to see a peace deal and the eventual lifting of sanctions against Russia, there would only be a limited increase in supply. Russia has managed to weather Western sanctions relatively well by rerouting Oil flows to China and India.""The latest positioning data shows that speculators increased their net long in ICE Brent by 53,586 lots to 151,144 lots over the last reporting week. This increase was predominantly driven by fresh longs entering the market as sentiment improved with the tariff pause between China and the US.""The US Oil rig count fell for the third consecutive week, declining by 1 last week to 473, leaving the count at its lowest since late January, according to Baker Hughes data. Lower prices have seen a pullback in drilling activity in the US. If current prices persist, we’re likely to see a further easing."
12:49 RBA: Will it or won't it? – Commerzbank
Tomorrow morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will decide on its key interest rate. The market is pricing in a rate cut of 25 basis points to 3.85%.
Tomorrow morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will decide on its key interest rate. The market is pricing in a rate cut of 25 basis points to 3.85%. Hard to be sure whether this step will actually come, as some developments are likely to cause the RBA headaches, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes. RBA can leave its key rate unchanged at 4.10%"The labor market is proving stronger than the RBA would like. Job creation is above the long-term average and, despite the interest rate hikes following the inflation shock, the unemployment rate remains rather low at 4.1%, with the employment rate rising at the same time. Wage pressure is showing correspondingly few signs of weakness. In general, inflation showed no further signs of falling in the first quarter. Similar to other countries, prices for services continue to rise.""The continued robust labor market and slightly higher-than-expected inflation actually argue in favor of a pause and against an interest rate cut. At the same time, the tariff dispute between the US and China has eased somewhat, so that the argument for a preventive interest rate cut out of concern about economic weakness in Australia, as China's important trading partner, has now lost momentum.""In this respect, we would not be surprised if the RBA leaves its key rate unchanged at 4.10% tomorrow. If the RBA decides for a pause, the AUD could gain ground again in the short term. However, we remain skeptical about the AUD in the medium term, as it is likely to suffer from the economic weakness of its important trading partner China and low growth potential."
12:39 EUR: Politics is a positive – ING
Not that it is normally a big driver of the euro exchange rate, but the outcome of the Romanian presidential election will be welcome news in Brussels as it prevents a further splintering of the bloc, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Not that it is normally a big driver of the euro exchange rate, but the outcome of the Romanian presidential election will be welcome news in Brussels as it prevents a further splintering of the bloc, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Sterling faces downside risk from the April services CPI figure"Developments in Poland will be more worrying, however - see below. In terms of the eurozone data calendar this week, the big focus will be on Thursday's flash PMI releases for May. So far, European business sentiment has been holding up relatively well. Should it continue to do so, the euro should stay supported as the liquid alternative to the dollar.""1.1265 is the intra-day resistance EUR/USD needs to break to open the topside once again. In the UK, there is much focus on the UK-EU summit. It seems here that expectations - especially in the press - have got far ahead of themselves. Initially, the summit was largely focused on defence. Now, any failure to agree on deals on food checks at the border or youth mobility will be seen as a big disappointment. That said, we do see the overall closer UK-EU alignment as a sterling positive, with any surprise progress sending EUR/GBP sub 0.8400 and GBP/USD to 1.3360/3400.""Tomorrow, however, sterling faces some downside risk from the April services CPI figure. Here, a downside surprise could firm up expectations for two 25bp Bank of England cuts this year. The market is currently pricing 44bp in total."
12:30 EUR/USD: Likely to consolidate between 1.1100 and 1.1290 – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is expected to trade with an upward bias; any advance is likely limited to a test of 1.1225. In the longer run, EUR is likely to consolidate between 1.1100 and 1.1290 for the time being, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Euro (EUR) is expected to trade with an upward bias; any advance is likely limited to a test of 1.1225. In the longer run, EUR is likely to consolidate between 1.1100 and 1.1290 for the time being, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. EUR is also expected to trade with an upward bias24-HOUR VIEW: "When EUR was at 1.1190 in the early Asian trade last Friday, we expected it to 'continue to range trade, likely between 1.1145 and 1.1235.' However, EUR traded in a lower range than expected, dropping from 1.1219 to 1.1129 and then rebounded to close at 1.1163 (-0.21%). The rebound has gained some momentum, albeit not much. Today, we expect EUR to trade with an upward bias. As momentum is not strong currently, any advance is likely limited to a test of 1.1225. Support is at 1.1160; a breach of 1.1135 would mean that the current mild upward pressure has faded." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Thursday (15 May, spot at 1.1180), we indicated that EUR 'has likely entered a consolidation phase.' We also indicated that 'For the time being, we expect it to trade between 1.1100 and 1.1290.' There is no change in our view."
12:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $32.53 per troy ounce, up 0.75% from the $32.29 it cost on Friday.
Silver prices have increased by 12.60% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD Troy Ounce 32.53 1 Gram 1.05
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 99.56 on Monday, up from 99.18 on Friday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 99.56 on Monday, up from 99.18 on Friday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
12:21 China: Economy stays resilient in April – UOB Group
China’s economy remained resilient in Apr even as US’ reciprocal and tit-for-tat tariffs kicked in.
China’s economy remained resilient in Apr even as US’ reciprocal and tit-for-tat tariffs kicked in. As with exports, the slowdown in industrial production (IP) was contained as frontloading continued in other markets after US paused its reciprocal tariffs with them, UOB Group's economist Ho Woei Chen notes. IP stays robust but retail sales and property market weakens in April"The uncertainties impacted retail sales and urban fixed assets investment (FAI) which turned out weaker-than-expected in April. Having said that, the m/m momentum has stayed positive for retail sales and FAI while the surveyed jobless rates crept lower. The property market remained a key concern for policy makers as indicators such as home prices, property investment and residential property sales softened in April." "Factoring in the near-term boost from the 90-day US-China trade truce, we revise higher our forecast for China’s GDP growth for 2025 to 4.6% from 4.3%, with 2Q25 at 4.9% y/y (1Q25: 5.4%) and 4.2% y/y in 2H25. The uncertainty in China’s outlook remains high and hinges on whether there is a durable trade agreement between US and China as well as the eventual tariff rates. China’s stimulus will lend further support to stabilise its outlook." "We reiterate our forecast for an additional 0.1%-point interest rate cut in 4Q25. Our projections for the 7-day reverse repo rate, 1Y LPR and 5Y LPR are at 1.30%, 2.90% and 3.40% respectively at end-4Q25."
12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) unchanged at 1% in April
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) unchanged at 1% in April
12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with expectations (2.2%) in April
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with expectations (2.2%) in April
12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (2.7%) in April
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (2.7%) in April
12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets expectations (0.6%) in April
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets expectations (0.6%) in April
11:36 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Test initial support near 1.3950, followed by nine-day EMA
The USD/CAD pair is losing ground after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3950 during the European hours on Monday. The daily chart's technical analysis suggested a sustained bullish sentiment, as the pair continues to trade within the ascending channel pattern.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}USD/CAD may find initial resistance at its six-week high of 1.4016.The 14-day RSI remains slightly above 50, indicating continued bullish bias.The immediate support appears at the nine-day EMA of 1.3936.The USD/CAD pair is losing ground after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3950 during the European hours on Monday. The daily chart's technical analysis suggested a sustained bullish sentiment, as the pair continues to trade within the ascending channel pattern.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains just above 50, indicating continued bullish pressure. Additionally, the USD/CAD pair is also remaining above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), pointing to stronger short-term momentum.The USD/CAD pair may encounter resistance at its six-week high of 1.4016, which was reached on May 13, followed by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.4023. A break above this crucial resistance zone could improve the medium-term price momentum and support the pair to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.4100.On the downside, the USD/CAD pair may find immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 1.3936, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary around the psychological level of 1.3900. A break below this crucial support zone would weaken the short-term price momentum and support the pair to navigate the region around the seven-month low of 1.3750, last seen on May 6.USD/CAD: Daily Chart Canadian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.78% -0.54% -0.26% -0.13% -0.33% -0.18% -0.35% EUR 0.78% -0.01% 0.34% 0.49% 0.34% 0.43% 0.20% GBP 0.54% 0.01% 0.06% 0.50% 0.35% 0.44% 0.21% JPY 0.26% -0.34% -0.06% 0.14% 0.09% 0.28% -0.04% CAD 0.13% -0.49% -0.50% -0.14% -0.20% -0.06% -0.29% AUD 0.33% -0.34% -0.35% -0.09% 0.20% 0.09% -0.13% NZD 0.18% -0.43% -0.44% -0.28% 0.06% -0.09% -0.23% CHF 0.35% -0.20% -0.21% 0.04% 0.29% 0.13% 0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
11:00 Pound Sterling trades firmly ahead of EU-UK trade summit
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades higher against its major peers, except the Euro (EUR), at the start of the week. The British currency moves higher ahead of the European Union (EU)-United Kingdom (UK) trade summit in London on Monday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling gains against its major peers on Monday ahead of a potential trade deal between the UK and the EU later in the day.Moody’s downgrade of the US Sovereign credit rating has battered the US Dollar.According to analysts, the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates this year.The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades higher against its major peers, except the Euro (EUR), at the start of the week. The British currency moves higher ahead of the European Union (EU)-United Kingdom (UK) trade summit in London on Monday. Investors will pay close attention to a potential trade deal as it will strengthen economic ties between the economies since the announcement of Brexit.According to comments from the Head of Trade Policy at the British Chamber of Commerce, William Bain, in a Jefferies-hosted session over the weekend, the potential deal between the UK and the EU would benefit various British industries such as defence, agriculture, and energy. Bain stated that the non-binding defence pact will unlock business worth 150 billion Euros for UK arms suppliers. The deal between European economies also aims to remove non-tariff barriers across agricultural industries.For the last week, the British currency has performed strongly on the back of an upbeat UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The data showed on Thursday that the economy expanded at a robust pace of 0.7% in the first quarter of the year.This week, investors will pay attention to the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April to get fresh cues about the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook, which will be released on Wednesday. The data is expected to show that the core CPI – which excludes volatile components of food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco – is expected to have grown at a faster pace of 3.6%, compared to the prior release of 3.4%.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling gains against US DollarThe Pound Sterling jumps to near 1.3370 against the US Dollar (USD) in Monday’s European session. The GBP/USD pair strengthens as the US Dollar faces selling pressure after Moody’s Rating downgraded the United States (US) Sovereign Credit Rating from Aaa to Aa1 on Friday in the wake of sustained fiscal deterioration. However, the agency clarified that a one-notch downgrade doesn’t indicate that its confidence in the US administrative and Federal Reserve’s (Fed) framework has diminished. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, declines to near 100.40.The outlook of the Greenback has improved due to a positive response from US President Donald Trump in an interview with Fox News on Friday about visiting China for direct trade talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump’s affirmation to visit China fuels hopes for a potential trade deal between Washington and Beijing, a scenario that will further diminish the risks of global economic turmoil.Another reason behind improving the US Dollar’s outlook is the growing expectation that the Fed will not lower interest rates anytime soon, despite the White House lowering tariffs from what they announced at the start of April.A report from leading investment banking firm Morgan Stanley showed that the Fed is unlikely to reduce interest rates before March 2026. “De-escalation greatly reduces the risk of a hard stop in trade flows and, in turn, the risk of a near-term recession in the economy,” economists at Morgan Stanley said, but warned of “slower growth and sticky inflation as levies are still high”.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, starting from the September meeting.Meanwhile, one-year consumer inflation expectations have accelerated further due to the fallout of tariffs by US President Trump. The University of Michigan (UoM) showed on Friday that flash one-year Consumer Inflation Expectations have increased to 7.3% from the prior release of 6.5% - a key trigger that would refrain the Fed from lowering interest rates from their current levels.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling jumps to near 1.3370The Pound Sterling climbs above 1.3370 against the US Dollar on Monday. The GBP/USD pair holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.3270, suggesting that the near-term trend is bullish.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points upwards inside the 40.00-60.00 range. A fresh bullish momentum would appear if the RSI breaks above 60.00.On the upside, the three-year high of 1.3445 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the psychological level of 1.3000 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
10:56 US Dollar Index falls below 100.50 following Moody’s downgrade of US credit rating
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, has retraced its recent gains from the previous session and is trading around 100.40 during the Asian hours on Monday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The US Dollar Index faces pressure after Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating by one notch.Moody’s now projects US federal debt to surge to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023.US Treasury Secretary Bessent noted that Trump plans to impose tariffs on trade partners that fail in “good faith” negotiations.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, has retraced its recent gains from the previous session and is trading around 100.40 during the Asian hours on Monday.The US Dollar faces challenges as Moody’s Ratings has downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, aligning with previous downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011. Moody’s now forecasts US federal debt to rise to approximately 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023. The federal deficit is projected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP, fueled by mounting debt-servicing costs, increased entitlement spending, and declining tax revenues.However, the Greenback received support from renewed optimism over a 90-day US-China trade truce and expectations of further trade agreements with other nations. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN on Sunday that President Donald Trump plans to impose tariffs at previously threatened levels on trade partners who fail to negotiate in “good faith.”Economic data released last week showed signs of easing inflation, with both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) indicating a slowdown in price pressures. These figures have increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates further in 2025, adding to the downward bias on the Greenback. Moreover, weak US Retail Sales data has reinforced concerns about a prolonged period of subdued economic growth. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.74% -0.63% -0.35% -0.17% -0.35% -0.27% -0.40% EUR 0.74% -0.14% 0.20% 0.40% 0.29% 0.30% 0.13% GBP 0.63% 0.14% 0.04% 0.55% 0.43% 0.44% 0.26% JPY 0.35% -0.20% -0.04% 0.20% 0.18% 0.29% 0.02% CAD 0.17% -0.40% -0.55% -0.20% -0.17% -0.10% -0.28% AUD 0.35% -0.29% -0.43% -0.18% 0.17% 0.00% -0.16% NZD 0.27% -0.30% -0.44% -0.29% 0.10% -0.01% -0.18% CHF 0.40% -0.13% -0.26% -0.02% 0.28% 0.16% 0.18% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
10:02 Forex Today: Markets turn risk-averse to start week
Here is what you need to know on Monday, May 19:
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Here is what you need to know on Monday, May 19:Safe-haven flows dominate the action in financial markets at the beginning of the week. Eurostat will publish revisions to April inflation data later in the session. In the second half of the day, several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will be delivering speeches. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.45% -0.27% -0.19% -0.07% -0.11% -0.21% -0.30% EUR 0.45% -0.08% 0.08% 0.21% 0.23% 0.07% -0.08% GBP 0.27% 0.08% -0.14% 0.28% 0.30% 0.14% -0.00% JPY 0.19% -0.08% 0.14% 0.12% 0.24% 0.18% -0.05% CAD 0.07% -0.21% -0.28% -0.12% -0.03% -0.14% -0.28% AUD 0.11% -0.23% -0.30% -0.24% 0.03% -0.16% -0.29% NZD 0.21% -0.07% -0.14% -0.18% 0.14% 0.16% -0.14% CHF 0.30% 0.08% 0.00% 0.05% 0.28% 0.29% 0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Late Friday, Moody's announced that it downgraded the United States' credit rating to 'AA1' from 'AAA', citing concerns about the growing $36 trillion debt pile. "Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs," Moody's said, per Reuters. US stock index futures stay under strong bearish pressure in the European morning and were last seen losing between 0.8% and 1.3% on the day. The US Dollar (USD) Index retreats toward 100.50 after posting gains for fourth consecutive weeks.On a positive note, a key congressional committee, the House panel, approved US President Donald Trump’s tax cut bill early Monday, paving the way for possible passage in the House of Representatives later this week.Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN News on Sunday that President Trump will bring tariffs up to the April 2 levels if partners don't negotiate in good faith. "There are incoming deals with 18 important trading partners," he added.EUR/USD holds its ground and trades slightly above 1.1200 in the early European session on Monday.After losing more than 3% in the previous week, Gold recovers modestly and stays comfortably above $3,200.GBP/USD gains traction and trades above 1.3300 on Monday. The pair closed the previous week marginally higher after recovering from the multi-week low it touched at 1.3140.AUD/USD stays relatively quiet and fluctuates in a narrow range slightly above 0.6400 in the European morning. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce monetary policy decisions in the Asian session on Tuesday. Markets expect the RBA to lower the policy rate to 3.85% from 4.1%.USD/JPY remains under bearish pressure and trades at around 145.00 to begin the European session. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reiterated earlier in the day that the central bank will keep raising interest rates if the economy and prices improve in line with their forecasts. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
10:02 Austria HICP (YoY) up to 3.3% in April from previous 3.1%
Austria HICP (YoY) up to 3.3% in April from previous 3.1%
10:01 Austria HICP (MoM) meets forecasts (0.3%) in April
Austria HICP (MoM) meets forecasts (0.3%) in April
09:17 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.57 per barrel, down from Friday’s close at $61.92.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.57 per barrel, down from Friday’s close at $61.92.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is stable, hovering around its previous daily close at $64.96. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
08:49 USD/CHF trades near 0.8350, pulls back from recent gains due to market caution
USD/CHF is retreating from gains made in the previous session, trading near 0.8360 during Asian hours on Monday. The decline follows a surprise downgrade of the US government's credit rating, which sparked renewed selling in the US fixed income market.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF depreciates as the US Dollar struggles following Moody’s decision to downgrade the US credit rating by one notch.US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that Trump intends to implement tariffs on trade partners that fail to negotiate in "good faith".The Swiss Franc faces challenges due to growing expectations of additional monetary easing by the Swiss National Bank.USD/CHF is retreating from gains made in the previous session, trading near 0.8360 during Asian hours on Monday. The decline follows a surprise downgrade of the US government's credit rating, which sparked renewed selling in the US fixed income market.Moody’s has downgraded the US credit rating by one notch—from Aaa to Aa1—citing surging debt levels and an increasing burden from interest payments. This follows similar downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011.However, the US Dollar (USD) received support from renewed optimism over a 90-day US-China trade truce and expectations of further trade agreements with other nations. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN on Sunday that President Donald Trump plans to impose tariffs at previously threatened levels on trade partners who fail to negotiate in “good faith.”Economic data released last week showed signs of easing inflation, with both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) indicating a slowdown in price pressures. These figures have increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates further in 2025, adding to the downward bias on the Greenback. Moreover, weak US Retail Sales data has reinforced concerns about a prolonged period of subdued economic growth.On the downside, losses in the USD/CHF pair may be limited by weakness in the Swiss Franc (CHF), amid growing expectations of additional monetary easing by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel recently stated that all policy tools—including a potential return to negative interest rates—remain on the table, although he expressed a desire to avoid such measures. Markets are now broadly expecting a 25 basis-point cut to zero at the SNB's next policy meeting on June 19. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
08:08 FX option expiries for May 19 NY cut
FX option expiries for May 19 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.
FX option expiries for May 19 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1150 375mGBP/USD: GBP amounts1.3300 559mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 146.50 1.2b147.00 1.5bUSD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8420 159mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6525 563m0.6355 595mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3675 529m1.3985 587mNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.5915 1b
08:02 Silver remains below $32.50, upside seems possible due to US economic uncertainty
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around $32.30 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver price may rise following Moody’s decision to downgrade the US credit rating by one notch.The grey metal has faced downward pressure due to improving global risk sentiment, driven by easing US-China trade tensions.A string of weak US economic indicators has reinforced expectations of further Fed rate cuts later this year.Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around $32.30 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. While silver prices have recently faced downward pressure, the downside may be limited due to rising demand for safe-haven assets, spurred by growing concerns over the US economic outlook and fiscal stability.Moody’s has downgraded the US credit rating by one notch—from Aaa to Aa1—citing surging debt levels and an increasing burden from interest payments. This follows similar downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011. Moody’s now projects that US federal debt could climb to approximately 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023. The widening federal deficit—expected to reach nearly 9% of GDP—is attributed to rising debt servicing costs, expanding entitlement expenditures, and declining tax revenues.Silver has also come under pressure amid improving global risk sentiment. The easing of US-China trade tensions, marked by a preliminary agreement to reduce tariffs—Washington lowering duties on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and Beijing reducing tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%—has bolstered investor confidence. Further optimism has been driven by prospects of a US-Iran nuclear deal and upcoming talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, aimed at de-escalating tensions in Ukraine.However, Silver—a non-yielding asset—may regain traction as a series of disappointing US economic data points heighten expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. Notably, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply to 50.8 in May, down from 52.2 in April, marking the lowest level since June 2022 and the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Analysts had anticipated an increase to 53.4, highlighting growing pessimism among consumers. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
07:57 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable below 1.1200, 200-period SMA on H4 holds the key
The EUR/USD pair ticks higher at the start of a new week amid a softer US Dollar (USD), though it lacks bullish conviction and remains below the 1.1200 round figure through the Asian session.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD trades with a positive bias on Monday amid a modest USD downtick.The setup warrants caution for bulls and before positioning for further gains.A sustained move beyond the 1.1300 mark might negate the negative outlook.The EUR/USD pair ticks higher at the start of a new week amid a softer US Dollar (USD), though it lacks bullish conviction and remains below the 1.1200 round figure through the Asian session. From a technical perspective, last week's breakdown below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. This, along with slightly negative oscillators on the 4-hour/daily charts, suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the downside. Hence, any subsequent move up beyond the 1.1200 mark could be seen as a selling opportunity near the 1.1275-1.1280 region.However, some follow-through buying, leading to a subsequent strength beyond the 1.1300 mark, will negate the negative bias and trigger a short-covering move. The EUR/USD pair might then surpass an intermediate hurdle and reclaim the 1.1400 round figure. The momentum could extend further towards the 1.1430 resistance zone en route to the 1.1500 psychological mark and the 1.1570-1.1570 region, or a multi-year top touched in April.On the flip side, the 1.1130 area could offer some support ahead of the 1.1100 round-figure mark and the monthly swing low, around the 1.1080 region. A convincing break below the latter will reaffirm the negative outlook and make the EUR/USD pair vulnerable to accelerating the fall further towards challenging the 1.1000 psychological mark.EUR/USD 4-hour chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
07:46 USD/INR rises on strong importer demand, foreign fund outflows
The Indian Rupee (INR) remains subdued against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, continuing its losing streak for the sixth successive day. Moreover, fresh USD demand from importers and ongoing foreign fund outflows continue to weigh on the INR.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee continues to weaken amid renewed USD demand from importers and persistent foreign fund outflows.USD/INR may face headwinds as the US Dollar comes under pressure following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating.The INR finds some support from falling crude oil prices, driven by reports of progress in US-Iran nuclear talks.The Indian Rupee (INR) remains subdued against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, continuing its losing streak for the sixth successive day. Moreover, fresh USD demand from importers and ongoing foreign fund outflows continue to weigh on the INR. However, the upside of the USD/INR pair could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) came under renewed pressure following Moody’s Investors Service downgrade of the US credit rating by one notch, citing rising debt levels and mounting interest payment obligations.However, the INR receives support from a decline in crude oil prices, amid reports of progress in US-Iran nuclear negotiations, which could help cushion the Rupee's downside. Iran’s president reaffirmed his country's commitment to continue talks with the US while standing firm on its nuclear rights. Given that India is the world’s third-largest oil consumer, lower oil prices generally support the Rupee by easing the country’s import bill.Indian Rupee depreciates despite a weaker US Dollar The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading lower at around 100.80 at the time of writing. The US Dollar faces challenges as Moody’s Ratings has downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, aligning with previous downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011.Moody’s now forecasts US federal debt to rise to approximately 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023. The federal deficit is projected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP, fueled by mounting debt-servicing costs, increased entitlement spending, and declining tax revenues.A series of weak US economic indicators has reinforced expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. Notably, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply to 50.8 in May from 52.2 in April, the lowest level since June 2022 and the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Analysts had forecast a rise to 53.4.The US Dollar may find some support from easing global trade tensions. A preliminary trade deal between the US and China proposes significant tariff reductions—Washington is set to lower duties on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while Beijing will cut tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%.Market sentiment is also lifted by renewed optimism over a potential US-Iran nuclear deal and upcoming talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed at de-escalating the Ukraine conflict.India's BSE Sensex rose 3.6% last week, rebounding from the previous week’s decline. The rally was fueled by easing geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, growing optimism around India–US trade ties, and expectations of domestic interest rate cuts.Meanwhile, a high-level Indian delegation led by Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal is set to meet with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick during his visit, which continues through May 20. Goyal is expected to push forward discussions on a proposed India–US bilateral trade agreement.USD/INR rises above 85.50 amid a mixed-to-bullish bias The Indian Rupee continues its losing streak for the sixth consecutive day, with the USD/INR pair trading near 85.60 on Monday. Technical indicators on the daily chart maintain a bullish bias, as the pair moves upwards within an ascending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 level, suggesting a persistent bullish sentiment.The USD/INR pair could target its monthly high of 85.90, reached on May 9. A break above this level could allow the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 86.40.Immediate support lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 85.30, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary at 85.10. A decisive break below this zone could undermine short-term bullish attempts and open the door for a decline toward its eight-month low of 83.76. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,848.04 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 8,806.90 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 103,200.20 per tola from INR 102,721.90 per tola on friday. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,848.04 10 Grams 88,479.91 Tola 103,200.20 Troy Ounce 275,174.10
2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price attracts safe-haven flows amid a softer USD; lacks bullish conviction
Moody's downgraded America's top sovereign credit rating by one notch, to "Aa1" on Friday, citing concerns about the nation's growing debt pile. This comes as the House panel approved US President Donald Trump’s tax cut bill early Monday, which could add trillions to the US debt.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN News on Sunday that President Donald Trump will impose tariffs at the rate he threatened last month on trading partners that do not negotiate in "good faith" on deals. This further underpins the safe-haven Gold price at the start of a new week.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) released last week pointed to signs of easing inflationary pressures. Adding to this, the disappointing US Retail Sales data increased the likelihood that the US economy will experience several quarters of sluggish growth.
Moreover, the University of Michigan's Surveys showed on Friday that the Consumer Sentiment Index deteriorated further in May and dropped from a final reading of 52.2 in April to 50.8 – the lowest level since June 2022. This reaffirmed bets for at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
The US Dollar continues with its struggle to attract any meaningful buyers in the wake of dovish Fed expectations, and turns out to be another factor that benefits the commodity. However, the trade optimism has eased concerns about a US recession and caps the upside for the XAU/USD pair.
On the geopolitical front, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on Sunday that the military will let limited amounts of food into Gaza. However, sources said there had been no progress in a new round of indirect talks between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
Meanwhile, Ukraine on Sunday said Russia attacked with a record number of drones. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and should act as a tailwind for the precious metal in the absence of any relevant US economic releases and ahead of speeches by influential FOMC members later today. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
07:32 NZD/USD sticks to modest intraday gains below 0.5900 amid softer USD
The NZD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Monday amid a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness, though it seems to struggle to capitalize on the move beyond the 0.5900 mark.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD gains positive traction at the start of a new week amid a modest USD downtick.The mixed Chinese macro data do little to provide any meaningful impetus to spot prices. A weaker risk tone lends support to the safe-haven buck and caps the risk-sensitive Kiwi.The NZD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Monday amid a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness, though it seems to struggle to capitalize on the move beyond the 0.5900 mark.Investors seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates further amid signs of easing inflationary pressures and the likelihood that the US economy will experience several quarters of sluggish growth. Moreover, Moody's downgraded America's top sovereign credit rating by one notch, to "Aa1" on Friday, citing concerns about the nation's growing debt pile. This, in turn, keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair. Meanwhile, traders react little to mixed Chinese macro data released earlier today. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Monday that China’s Retail Sales rose by 5.1% year-over-year (YoY) in April, falling short of the 5.5% forecast and down from 5.9% in March. Industrial Production grew by 6.1% YoY during the same period, beating the expected 5.5%, while Fixed Asset Investment rose 4.0% year-to-date (YTD) YoY in April, below the 4.2% forecast and March’s reading. The data does little to provide any meaningful impetus, though the optimism over the US-China trade truce continues to lend support to antipodean currencies, including the Kiwi. The upside for the NZD/USD pair, however, remains capped in the wake of a turnaround in the global risk sentiment, which is holding back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further appreciating move for the major. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
07:31 Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) came in at 15.8%, above expectations (-0.2%) in March
Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) came in at 15.8%, above expectations (-0.2%) in March
07:06 Gold price struggles to capitalize on modest intraday gains to $3,250 area
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts buyers during the Asian session on Monday as a surprise downgrade of the US government's credit rating tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets and boosts demand for traditional safe-haven assets.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price regained positive traction on Monday amid reviving safe-haven demand.A downgrade of the US credit rating and tariff threats weighs on investors’ sentiment. Fed rate cut bets keep the USD depressed and further lend support to the commodity.Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts buyers during the Asian session on Monday as a surprise downgrade of the US government's credit rating tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets and boosts demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Furthermore, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's reaffirmation of President Donald Trump's tariff threats lends additional support to the bullion. Meanwhile, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates further this year keep the US Dollar (USD) depressed and turn out to be another factor lending some support to the non-yielding yellow metal.However, the optimism over the US-China trade truce for 90 days and hopes for more US trade deals with other countries cap the upside for the Gold price near the $3,250-3,252 supply zone. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the XAU/USD has formed a near-term bottom and positioning for an extension of last week's goodish recovery from the $3,120 area, or over a one-month low. In the absence of any relevant market-moving US macro data, speeches by influential FOMC members will drive the USD and provide some impetus to the commodity. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price attracts safe-haven flows amid a softer USD; lacks bullish convictionMoody's downgraded America's top sovereign credit rating by one notch, to "Aa1" on Friday, citing concerns about the nation's growing debt pile. This comes as the House panel approved US President Donald Trump’s tax cut bill early Monday, which could add trillions to the US debt.Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN News on Sunday that President Donald Trump will impose tariffs at the rate he threatened last month on trading partners that do not negotiate in "good faith" on deals. This further underpins the safe-haven Gold price at the start of a new week. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) released last week pointed to signs of easing inflationary pressures. Adding to this, the disappointing US Retail Sales data increased the likelihood that the US economy will experience several quarters of sluggish growth. Moreover, the University of Michigan's Surveys showed on Friday that the Consumer Sentiment Index deteriorated further in May and dropped from a final reading of 52.2 in April to 50.8 – the lowest level since June 2022. This reaffirmed bets for at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. The US Dollar continues with its struggle to attract any meaningful buyers in the wake of dovish Fed expectations, and turns out to be another factor that benefits the commodity. However, the trade optimism has eased concerns about a US recession and caps the upside for the XAU/USD pair. On the geopolitical front, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on Sunday that the military will let limited amounts of food into Gaza. However, sources said there had been no progress in a new round of indirect talks between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.Meanwhile, Ukraine on Sunday said Russia attacked with a record number of drones. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and should act as a tailwind for the precious metal in the absence of any relevant US economic releases and ahead of speeches by influential FOMC members later today. Gold price needs to find acceptance above the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour timeframe for bulls to seize controlFrom a technical perspective, the Gold price seems to struggle to move back above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) support-turned-resistance on the 4-hour chart. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the $3,250-3,252 supply zone before confirming that the Gold price has bottomed out and positioning for any further gains. The subsequent move up could lift the commodity above the $3.274-3,275 intermediate barrier, towards the $3,300 round figure. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which, if cleared decisively, could negate any near-term negative bias and shift the bias in favor of bullish traders, paving the way for further gains.On the flip side, weakness back below the $3,200 mark might now find some support near the $3,178-3,177 area. Some follow-through selling could make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerating the slide towards last week's swing low, around the $3,120 area, or the lowest level since April 10, en route to the $3,100 mark. A convincing break below the latter would expose the next relevant support near the $3,060 region. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
06:07 US House panel approves Trump tax cut bill, a possible vote on passage this week
A key congressional committee, the House panel, approved President Donald Trump’s tax cut bill early Monday, paving the way for possible passage in the House of Representatives later this week.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}
A key congressional committee, the House panel, approved President Donald Trump’s tax cut bill early Monday, paving the way for possible passage in the House of Representatives later this week.Market reaction The US Dollar was last seen trading 0.30% lower on the day at 100.80. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.22% -0.10% -0.12% -0.04% -0.16% -0.19% -0.14% EUR 0.22% -0.15% -0.06% 0.00% -0.05% -0.14% -0.15% GBP 0.10% 0.15% -0.21% 0.15% 0.09% -0.01% -0.00% JPY 0.12% 0.06% 0.21% 0.05% 0.09% 0.10% 0.00% CAD 0.04% -0.01% -0.15% -0.05% -0.11% -0.18% -0.16% AUD 0.16% 0.05% -0.09% -0.09% 0.11% -0.09% -0.09% NZD 0.19% 0.14% 0.00% -0.10% 0.18% 0.09% -0.00% CHF 0.14% 0.15% 0.00% -0.00% 0.16% 0.09% 0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
05:33 USD/CAD holds steady above mid-1.3900s amid mixed cues; remains confined in a familiar range
The USD/CAD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction during the Asian session on Monday and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past week or so. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3965-1.3970 region, nearly unchanged for the day amid mixed fundamental cues.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD ticks higher on Monday as softer Oil prices undermine the commodity-linked Loonie.A downgrade of the US credit rating and Fed rate cut bets weigh on the USD, capping the major.Hopes for an eventual US-Canada trade deal further warrant some caution for bullish traders. The USD/CAD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction during the Asian session on Monday and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past week or so. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3965-1.3970 region, nearly unchanged for the day amid mixed fundamental cues.Crude Oil prices kick off the new week on a softer note and undermine the commodity-linked Loonie, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. However, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) selling holds back bullish traders from placing aggressive bets and caps the upside for the currency pair. Investors seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates further amid signs of easing inflation and the likelihood that the US economy will experience several quarters of sluggish growth. Apart from this, a surprise downgrade of the US government's credit rating keeps the USD depressed and keeps a lid on the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance discussed fair trade policies with Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney on Sunday. This raises hopes for an eventual trade deal between the US and Canada, which should offer some support to the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and warrants some caution before positioning any upside for the USD/CAD pair. Moving ahead, there isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release on Monday, either from the US or Canada. That said, speeches by influential FOMC members will drive the USD and provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair. Apart from this, Oil price dynamics might contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
05:32 China’s NBS: Economy grew steadily in face of pressure
Following the publication of the high-impact China’s April activity data, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) expressed its outlook on the economy during its press conference on Monday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Following the publication of the high-impact China’s April activity data, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) expressed its outlook on the economy during its press conference on Monday.Key quotes (via Reuters)Productivity demand grew steadily.Employment situation generally stable.Economy grew steadily in face of pressure, continues developing in an upward trend.China actively diversifying, expanding trade with Belt and Road initiative nations.Market reactionAUD/USD picks fresh bids to near 0.6420, adding 0.28% on the day, at the press time. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
05:19 GBP/USD holds gains around 1.3300 as US Dollar weakens following Moody’s downgrade
The GBP/USD pair recovered from prior session losses, trading near the 1.3300 level during Asian session on Monday. The rebound is largely driven by renewed pressure on the US Dollar (USD) after Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the US credit rating by one notch, from Aaa to Aa1.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD rises as US Dollar weakens in response to Moody’s decision to downgrade the US credit rating by one notch.A series of weak US economic indicators has strengthened expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year.The Pound Sterling has strengthened, supported by UK GDP data released on Thursday that exceeded expectations.The GBP/USD pair recovered from prior session losses, trading near the 1.3300 level during Asian session on Monday. The rebound is largely driven by renewed pressure on the US Dollar (USD) after Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the US credit rating by one notch, from Aaa to Aa1. The agency cited escalating debt levels and a growing burden from interest payments as primary concerns.This move aligns with previous downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011. Moody’s now forecasts US federal debt to rise to approximately 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023. The federal deficit is projected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP, fueled by mounting debt-servicing costs, increased entitlement spending, and declining tax revenues.Further weighing on the Greenback, a series of weak US economic indicators has reinforced expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. Notably, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply to 50.8 in May from 52.2 in April, the lowest level since June 2022 and the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Analysts had forecast a rise to 53.4.Despite these headwinds, the US Dollar may find some support from easing global trade tensions. A preliminary trade deal between the US and China proposes significant tariff reductions—Washington is set to lower duties on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while Beijing will cut tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%.Market sentiment is also lifted by renewed optimism over a potential US-Iran nuclear deal and upcoming talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed at de-escalating the Ukraine conflict.Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) has gained momentum, underpinned by stronger-than-expected UK GDP data released on Thursday. Both monthly and quarterly figures showed robust economic growth, bolstering expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may maintain its current interest rate stance should inflation remain persistent or accelerate further. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
05:12 US Treasury Sec. Bessent warns of tariffs rates to ‘reciprocal’ level if no trade deal
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN News on Sunday, President Donald “Trump has put them on notice that if you do not negotiate in good faith, you will ratchet back up to your April 2 level.”
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN News on Sunday, President Donald “Trump has put them on notice that if you do not negotiate in good faith, you will ratchet back up to your April 2 level.”He added: “There are incoming deals with 18 "important" trading partners,” but didn't indicate a timeline for these trade agreements.
05:07 WTI sticks to modest intraday losses around $61.70, moves little after mixed Chinese data
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on Friday's move higher and attract fresh sellers at the start of a new week.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI kicks off the new week on a softer note, though the downtick lacks bearish conviction. The uncertainty over Iran-US nuclear talks and geopolitical risks supports the black liquid.A modest USD weakness also acts as a tailwind for the commodity amid mixed Chinese data.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on Friday's move higher and attract fresh sellers at the start of a new week. The commodity, however, recovers slightly from the Asian session low and currently trades around the $61.70-$61.65 region, still down nearly 0.40% for the day.The uncertainty over the outcome of Iran-US nuclear talks and rising tensions between Estonia and Russia, following the latter's detention of a Greek-owned oil tanker on Sunday, turned out to be key factors acting as a tailwind for the black liquid. In fact, US special envoy Steve Witkoff said on Sunday that any deal with Iran must include an agreement not to enrich Uranium.Apart from this, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) selling lends additional support to Crude Oil prices and helps limit the downside. Against the backdrop of the growing market acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates further this year, a surprise downgrade of the US government's credit rating prompts fresh selling around the USD on Monday.The upside for Crude Oil prices, however, seems limited in the wake of mixed Chinese macro data, which offsets the optimism led by the US-China trade truce for 90 days. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before traders start positioning for an extension of the recent goodish recovery from the $55.00 neighborhood, or the monthly swing low. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
05:06 Lagarde speech: US Dollar weakened due to the uncertainty and loss of confidence in US policies
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde spoke in an interview with French media, La Tribune Dimanche, published on Saturday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde spoke in an interview with French media, La Tribune Dimanche, published on Saturday.Key quotes“It’s impressive to note that in a period of uncertainty when we should normally have seen the dollar appreciate significantly, the opposite happened. It’s counterintuitive, but justified by the uncertainty and loss of confidence in US policies among certain segments of the financial markets.”“At a time when we see the rule of law, the judicial system, and trade rules being called into question in the US... Europe is rightly perceived as a stable economic and political area.”Market reactionAt the press time, EUR/USD is up 0.13% on the day, trading near 1.1175. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
05:02 China’s April Retail Sales grow 5.1%, Industrial Production beats with 6.1%
China’s April Retail Sales rose 5.1% year-over-year (YoY) vs. 5.5% expected and 5.9% in March, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}
China’s April Retail Sales rose 5.1% year-over-year (YoY) vs. 5.5% expected and 5.9% in March, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday.Chinese Industrial Production increased 6.1% YoY in the same period, compared to the 5.5% forecast and the 7.7% booked previously.Meanwhile, the Fixed Asset Investment came in at 4% year-to-date (YTD) YoY in April, missing the expected 4.2% figure. The March reading was 4.2%.AUD/USD reaction to Chinese dataThe mixed Chinese data dump fails to move the Australian Dollar, with AUD/USD trading flat on the day near 0.6400 as of writing. Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.15% -0.07% -0.10% -0.03% -0.04% -0.14% -0.04% EUR 0.15% -0.18% -0.13% -0.05% -0.00% -0.16% -0.12% GBP 0.07% 0.18% -0.25% 0.13% 0.18% 0.01% 0.06% JPY 0.10% 0.13% 0.25% 0.07% 0.22% 0.16% 0.11% CAD 0.03% 0.05% -0.13% -0.07% -0.00% -0.11% -0.07% AUD 0.04% 0.00% -0.18% -0.22% 0.00% -0.16% -0.11% NZD 0.14% 0.16% -0.01% -0.16% 0.11% 0.16% 0.05% CHF 0.04% 0.12% -0.06% -0.11% 0.07% 0.11% -0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
05:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) below expectations (5.5%) in April: Actual (5.1%)
China Retail Sales (YoY) below expectations (5.5%) in April: Actual (5.1%)
05:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) above expectations (5.5%) in April: Actual (6.1%)
China Industrial Production (YoY) above expectations (5.5%) in April: Actual (6.1%)
05:00 China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) below expectations (4.2%) in April: Actual (4%)
China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) below expectations (4.2%) in April: Actual (4%)
04:48 Gold advances to near $3,250 due to safe-haven demand, US economic concerns
Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from recent losses, trading near $3,230 per troy ounce during Monday’s Asian session. The rebound is fueled by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising concerns over the US economic outlook and fiscal health.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price are supported by increased safe-haven demand following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating.Moody’s projects US federal debt to surge to approximately 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023.A series of weak US economic indicators has strengthened expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year.Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from recent losses, trading near $3,230 per troy ounce during Monday’s Asian session. The rebound is fueled by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising concerns over the US economic outlook and fiscal health.Moody’s recently downgraded the US credit rating by one notch, from Aaa to Aa1, citing escalating debt levels and a growing burden from interest payments. This move follows previous downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011. Moody’s now forecasts US federal debt to soar to approximately 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the federal deficit expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP. This is attributed to higher debt servicing costs, increased entitlement spending, and falling tax revenues.Last week, Gold posted its sharpest weekly decline since November, falling over 3%, as easing global trade tensions boosted risk appetite. A preliminary US-China trade agreement includes tariff reductions—Washington will lower duties on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while Beijing plans to cut tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%. Market sentiment was also buoyed by renewed optimism over a potential US-Iran nuclear deal and upcoming talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed at easing tensions in Ukraine.Meanwhile, a string of disappointing US economic indicators has reinforced expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. The University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index unexpectedly dropped to 50.8 in May from 52.2 in April, marking the lowest reading since June 2022 and the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Economists had anticipated an increase to 53.4. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
04:43 BoJ’s Uchida: Will keep raising rates if economy, prices improve in line with our forecast
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Tuesday that the central bank “will keep raising interest rates if economy, prices improve in line with our forecast.”
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Tuesday that the central bank “will keep raising interest rates if economy, prices improve in line with our forecast.”Additional commentsUncertainty surrounding each country's trade policy extremely high.Japan's underlying inflation likely to re-accelerate after period of slowdown in growth.Mindful that recent rise in prices have negative impact on consumption.
04:38 USD/JPY seems vulnerable near 145.00, over one-week low amid reviving safe-haven demand
The USD/JPY pair attracts fresh sellers on Monday and drops to over a one-week trough, around the 144.80 area during the Asian session.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY kicks off the new week on a weaker note amid a combination of negative factors. BoJ rate hike bets and a slight deterioration in the global risk sentiment benefit the JPY.A surprise downgrade of the US credit rating and dovish Fed expectations weigh on the USD.The USD/JPY pair attracts fresh sellers on Monday and drops to over a one-week trough, around the 144.80 area during the Asian session. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside and supports prospects for an extension of the recent retracement slide from a nearly six-week high touched last Monday. The growing conviction that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again in 2025 is seen as a key factor that continues to underpin the Japanese Yen (JPY). Apart from this, a surprise downgrade of the US government's credit rating tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets and benefits traditional safe-haven assets, including the JPY. In fact, Moody's downgraded America's top sovereign credit rating by one notch, to "Aa1" on Friday, due to concerns about the nation's growing debt pile.Meanwhile, investors seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates further amid signs of easing inflation and the likelihood that the US economy will experience several quarters of sluggish growth. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) depressed at the start of a new week and exerts additional downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. However, the lack of follow-through selling below the 145.00 psychological mark warrants some caution for bears and before positioning for deeper losses. Moving ahead, there isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Monday, leaving the USD at the mercy of speeches from influential FOMC members. Apart from this, the broader risk sentiment will drive the JPY demand and provide some impetus to the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, the divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations validate the near-term negative outlook. Hence, any attempted recovery could be seen as a selling opportunity and is likely to remain capped. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
04:31 China House Price Index rose from previous -4.6% to -4% in April
China House Price Index rose from previous -4.6% to -4% in April
04:16 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1916 vs. 7.1938 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1916 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1938 and 7.2057 Reuters estimate.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1916 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1938 and 7.2057 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
04:12 EUR/USD rises to near 1.1200, recovers as US Dollar weakens on fiscal concerns
EUR/USD rebounds from previous session losses, trading near 1.1190 during Monday's Asian session.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/USD rises as US Dollar weakens in response to Moody’s decision to downgrade the US credit rating by one notch.Moody’s forecasts US federal debt to rise sharply, reaching around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023.Anticipation builds that the European Central Bank will deliver another interest rate cut at its next policy meeting.EUR/USD rebounds from previous session losses, trading near 1.1190 during Monday's Asian session. The pair gains strength as the US Dollar comes under pressure following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating by one notch—from Aaa to Aa1—citing rising debt levels and growing interest payment burdens.Moody's followed earlier downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011. Moody’s now projects US federal debt to reach approximately 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, while the federal deficit is expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP, driven by higher debt servicing costs, increased entitlement spending, and reduced tax revenues.Despite these concerns, losses in the US Dollar may be cushioned by easing global trade tensions. A preliminary deal between the US and China includes plans to lower tariffs—Washington will reduce duties on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while Beijing will cut tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%. Additionally, market sentiment is supported by renewed optimism over a possible US-Iran nuclear agreement and upcoming talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed at de-escalating the conflict in Ukraine.Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) shows signs of softening as expectations grow that the European Central Bank (ECB) will implement another rate cut at its upcoming policy meeting. Traders are increasingly confident in this outlook, driven by the belief that Eurozone inflation is aligning with the ECB’s 2% target and that the region’s economic outlook remains weak amid continued global uncertainty. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.28% -0.14% -0.20% -0.07% -0.06% -0.17% -0.15% EUR 0.28% -0.12% -0.11% 0.06% 0.11% -0.07% -0.09% GBP 0.14% 0.12% -0.27% 0.16% 0.23% 0.05% 0.03% JPY 0.20% 0.11% 0.27% 0.14% 0.31% 0.23% 0.12% CAD 0.07% -0.06% -0.16% -0.14% 0.02% -0.11% -0.13% AUD 0.06% -0.11% -0.23% -0.31% -0.02% -0.18% -0.19% NZD 0.17% 0.07% -0.05% -0.23% 0.11% 0.18% -0.03% CHF 0.15% 0.09% -0.03% -0.12% 0.13% 0.19% 0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
04:02 AUD/USD holds steady above 0.6400 ahead of Chinese macro data
The AUD/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and consolidates just above the 0.6400 round-figure mark during the Asian session.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD struggles to gain any meaningful traction amid mixed fundamental cues. A weaker risk tone caps the Aussie, though a weaker USD lends support to the pair.Traders look to Chinese macro data for some impetus ahead of the RBA on Tuesday. The AUD/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and consolidates just above the 0.6400 round-figure mark during the Asian session. Moreover, spot prices remain confined in a familiar range held over the past month or so as traders await a fresh catalyst before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. In the meantime, Monday's Chinese macro data dump could provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair and allow traders to grab short-term opportunities. The immediate market reaction, however, is more likely to be limited as the focus remains glued to the crucial Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy decision on Tuesday.The Australian central bank is widely expected to cut its key rate by 25 basis points (bps) and lower borrowing costs twice more this year amid easing inflation and growth concerns on the back of trade tensions. However, the de-escalation of the US-China trade war has tempered bets for more aggressive policy easing by the RBA.Nevertheless, the policy outlook will influence the Australian Dollar (AUD) and determine the next leg of a directional move for the AUD/USD pair. Heading into the key central bank event risk, a turnaround in the global risk sentiment – as depicted by a generally weaker tone around the equity markets – is seen capping the Aussie. A surprise downgrade of the US government's credit rating tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets. Apart from this, bets for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) keep the US Dollar (USD) depressed, which, in turn, might continue to act as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair and warrants some caution for bearish traders. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
03:54 Japan's PM Ishiba: Cannot accept US tariffs on autos
Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday, speaking in the parliament this Monday, showed reluctance to accept US tariffs, including for cars, and said that seeking a win-win deal with the US is the key.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday, speaking in the parliament this Monday, showed reluctance to accept US tariffs, including for cars, and said that seeking a win-win deal with the US is the key. Market reaction:Ishiba's remarks do little to influence the JPY or provide any impetus to the USD/JPY pair, which remains close to last week's swing low and currently trades just above the 145.00 mark, down over 0.40% for the day. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
01:45 New Zealand Producer Price Index - Output (QoQ) registered at 2.1% above expectations (0.1%) in 1Q
New Zealand Producer Price Index - Output (QoQ) registered at 2.1% above expectations (0.1%) in 1Q
01:45 New Zealand Producer Price Index - Input (QoQ) above expectations (0.2%) in 1Q: Actual (2.9%)
New Zealand Producer Price Index - Input (QoQ) above expectations (0.2%) in 1Q: Actual (2.9%)
01:32 New Zealand Business NZ PSI: 48.5 (April) vs previous 49.1
New Zealand Business NZ PSI: 48.5 (April) vs previous 49.1
Risk warning: Trading is risky. Your capital is at risk. Exinity Limited is regulated by FSC (Mauritius).