The Mexican Peso (MXN) advanced by 0.60% against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as investors shifted away from the Greenback amid Moody’s International rating agency's review of the US government's debt prospects. USD/MXN trades at 19.32 after hitting a daily high of 19.48.
The NZD/USD pair is climbing at the start of the week, trading around the 0.5900 level after President Donald Trump claimed credit for restarting Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic hit newswires on Monday with his own rate cut forecast. According to Bostic, the Fed is on pace to do only a single quarter-point rate cut in 2025.
The US Dollar started the new trading week on the back foot as investors continued to digest news of Moody’s credit downgrade, while the resurgence of some trade tensions also weighed on the currency.
Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Dr. Swati Dhingra cautioned that the United Kingdom (UK) could be facing a rocky road on inflation, especially as knock-on effects from the Trump administration's tariff-heavy trade policies reverberate through the global economy.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, remains pinned near the 100.30 level to start the week, with bearish sentiment lingering after Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating.
The Euro (EUR) is strengthening against the British Pound Sterling (GBP) on Monday, as diverging drivers on both sides of the Channel shape market sentiment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained ground to kick off the new trading week, touching 42,800 for the first time in eight weeks as markets continue to push equity markets back into the high end following this year’s tariff-fueled stock rout.
Gold price trimmed some of last Friday’s losses, climbing on safe haven demand following Moody’s downgrade of the United States' (US) creditworthiness. The rating agency's action undermined the US Dollar and sent XAU/USD above the $3,200 figure after bouncing off daily lows of $3,202.
Chairman of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Martin Schlegel noted on Monday that uncertainty surrounding inflation has made it more difficult to actively manage foreign currency flows, noting that there are functionally no suitable alternatives for central banks to manage their holdings without US Tre
United States (US) President Donald Trump, speaking via Truth Social posts, has again declared a moderate success on attempting to manage the Russia-Ukraine war.
According to Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, although the year saw a strong start for the US economy, ongoing uncertainty at the hands of the Trump administration's trade policies has put a significant dent in investor sentiment, creating turbulence in markets and
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its rebound against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with AUD/USD climbing to 0.6455, trimming recent losses as sentiment turns against the Greenback.
The USD/CHF pair is trading 0.5% lower around 0.8330 during North American trading hours on Monday, reflecting a sharp drop in US Dollar sentiment after Moody's downgraded the United States' long-term credit rating from AAA to AA1.
The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.13 zone on Monday, reflecting a strong intraday recovery as the market gains momentum after the European session. Despite the sharp upside move, the broader technical outlook presents a mixed picture, with conflicting signals across different timeframes.
GBP/JPY is trading modestly higher near 193.60 on Monday, snapping a three-day losing streak. The pair experienced some volatility early in the session, briefly falling to a low of 192.78 before paring losses.
The EUR/CHF pair is trading near the 0.94 zone on Monday, reflecting minor gains as the market stabilizes within its recent range. Despite the modest upside, the pair remains constrained by a broadly neutral technical outlook, with mixed signals across multiple timeframes.
The Pound Sterling posted solid gains on Monday as the Greenback gets battered due to Moody’s lowering US debt rating to Aa1, a headwind for the US Dollar. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3360, up 0.71%.
EUR/JPY trades modestly higher near 163.20 on Monday, snapping a three-day losing streak, as investors digest steady Eurozone inflation data, flexible policy signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), and fresh geopolitical developments ahead of key economic releases.
The USD/CHF pair trades 0.5% lower to near 0.8330 during North American trading hours on Monday. The Swiss Franc pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) faces a sharp selling pressure due to erosion in the United States (US) Sovereign Credit Rating.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading slightly higher on Monday, holding above the $32.00 level during the US session, as broader weakness in the US Dollar fuels demand for alternative safe-haven assets.
Q1 outperformance tells little about the remainder of 2025; growth momentum is likely to weaken. Growth forecast of 0.8% this year remains unchanged, but near-term recession risks are high. The 2026 growth has been revised down to 1.0% (1.2%) owing to the lingering effects of trade uncertainty.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson said on Monday that there are risks to both jobs and inflation and added that it is appropriate to wait and see on rate decisions, given the the uncertainty, per Reuters.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is recovering firmly above the 0.5900 mark agains the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, last seen trading around 0.5910, up nearly 0.50% on the day. The NZD/USD pair draws support from broad US Dollar weakness following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating.
At the end of last week, Japanese Finance Minister Kato indicated that he would look to talk about FX with US Treasury Secretary Bessent this week. This has spurred investors to move back into long JPY positions.
New York Fed President John Williams struck a balanced tone in his latest remarks, highlighting strength in recent US data while acknowledging steady uncertainty around trade.
White House’s economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, hinted at the likelihood that further trade deals could be in the offing.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) remains firm against the US Dollar (USD) as markets react to renewed uncertainty following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating. The decision to lower the sovereign rating to AA1 from AAA has prompted a reassessment of the US Dollar’s status.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is on the back foot on Monday and trades around 100.40 at the time of writing. The DXY is undergoing some selling pressure with the Greenback losing some support and trust in markets again.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, tumbles to near $61.00 on Monday. The Oil price faces selling pressure since opening the week due to a significant increase in US Treasury yields.
In an interview with CNBC on Monday, Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) President Raphael Bostic said that inflation is not moving to target as fast as anticipated and reiterated that he leans toward only one rate cut this year because it will take time to understand the impact of tariffs, per Reuters.
Activity data points to softening momentum from Q1, but industrial production has held up. Frontloaded exports and macro policy implementation to continue to support growth in Q2. Property market remains the key drag for the domestic economy.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) extends its winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) into a fifth consecutive day on Monday, with USD/JPY falling below the 145.00 psychological mark to trade near 144.70 during the European session, driven by broad-based USD weakness and fresh hawkish signals from the Bank
The US Dollar (USD) is softer and longer-term yields are higher with the S&P future down 1.0% suggesting the potential for a day of triple selling of US assets that is being driven by the decision of Moodys to downgrade the sovereign rating of the US from the top Aaa rating to Aa1.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) left the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% following the May policy meeting, as widely anticipated. In the policy statement, the Fed noted that the economic outlook uncertainty has increased further.
The AUD/USD pair gains sharply to near 0.6450 during European trading hours on Monday. The Aussie pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms after Moody’s downgraded the United States (US) Sovereign credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa in the wake of mounting debt levels.
US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a sideways range of 7.1990/7.2190. In the longer run, a breach of 7.2330 would indicate that the likelihood of USD declining to 7.1700 has faded, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The Chinese yuan remains under pressure as April’s economic data came in softer than expected, reinforcing calls for further policy support to sustain growth, BBH FX analysts report.
US Dollar (USD) could drop below 144.90 against Japanese Yen (JPY); the major support at 144.50 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, USD remains in consolidation, but likely within a tighter range of 144.50/147.30, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
April data confirm hit from trade war escalation last month. Growth momentum expected to pick up again following Geneva truce, but uncertainty remains, ABN AMRO's economist Arjen van Dijkhuizen reports.
Economics normally suffers from a painful deficiency: unlike biologists, physicists, psychologists, and other scientists, economists are generally unable to conduct experiments.
There has been a tentative buildup in upward momentum; NZD is expected to edge higher and test 0.5920. In the longer run, outlook remains mixed, but NZD is likely to trade in a tighter range of 0.5835/0.5985, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Late on Friday, the rating agency Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating one notch to Aa1, having had the US on a negative outlook for a year, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
EUR/USD surges to near 1.1270 during European trading hours on Monday. The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) slumps due to erosion in the United States (US) Sovereign Credit Rating.
A breach of 0.6370 would mean that the current price movements are part of a range trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to cut rates tomorrow morning (06.30 CET), ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
Gold (XAU/USD) price remains within a tight range, trading slightly higher near $3,243 at the time of writing, with three main themes at play on Monday. Tensions are brewing in the Middle East with Israel embarking on another massive ground offensive.
The Oil market managed a second consecutive week of gains, driven largely by tariff de-escalation. However, the market is in limbo this morning as it weighs what impact, if any, the US credit downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service will have on Oil.
Tomorrow morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will decide on its key interest rate. The market is pricing in a rate cut of 25 basis points to 3.85%.
Not that it is normally a big driver of the euro exchange rate, but the outcome of the Romanian presidential election will be welcome news in Brussels as it prevents a further splintering of the bloc, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Euro (EUR) is expected to trade with an upward bias; any advance is likely limited to a test of 1.1225. In the longer run, EUR is likely to consolidate between 1.1100 and 1.1290 for the time being, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data.
China’s economy remained resilient in Apr even as US’ reciprocal and tit-for-tat tariffs kicked in.
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) unchanged at 1% in April
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with expectations (2.2%) in April
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (2.7%) in April
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets expectations (0.6%) in April
The USD/CAD pair is losing ground after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3950 during the European hours on Monday. The daily chart's technical analysis suggested a sustained bullish sentiment, as the pair continues to trade within the ascending channel pattern.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades higher against its major peers, except the Euro (EUR), at the start of the week. The British currency moves higher ahead of the European Union (EU)-United Kingdom (UK) trade summit in London on Monday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, has retraced its recent gains from the previous session and is trading around 100.40 during the Asian hours on Monday.
Here is what you need to know on Monday, May 19:
Austria HICP (YoY) up to 3.3% in April from previous 3.1%
Austria HICP (MoM) meets forecasts (0.3%) in April
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.57 per barrel, down from Friday’s close at $61.92.
USD/CHF is retreating from gains made in the previous session, trading near 0.8360 during Asian hours on Monday. The decline follows a surprise downgrade of the US government's credit rating, which sparked renewed selling in the US fixed income market.
FX option expiries for May 19 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around $32.30 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday.
The EUR/USD pair ticks higher at the start of a new week amid a softer US Dollar (USD), though it lacks bullish conviction and remains below the 1.1200 round figure through the Asian session.
The Indian Rupee (INR) remains subdued against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, continuing its losing streak for the sixth successive day. Moreover, fresh USD demand from importers and ongoing foreign fund outflows continue to weigh on the INR.
Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The NZD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Monday amid a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness, though it seems to struggle to capitalize on the move beyond the 0.5900 mark.
Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) came in at 15.8%, above expectations (-0.2%) in March
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts buyers during the Asian session on Monday as a surprise downgrade of the US government's credit rating tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets and boosts demand for traditional safe-haven assets.
A key congressional committee, the House panel, approved President Donald Trump’s tax cut bill early Monday, paving the way for possible passage in the House of Representatives later this week.
The USD/CAD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction during the Asian session on Monday and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past week or so. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3965-1.3970 region, nearly unchanged for the day amid mixed fundamental cues.
Following the publication of the high-impact China’s April activity data, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) expressed its outlook on the economy during its press conference on Monday.
The GBP/USD pair recovered from prior session losses, trading near the 1.3300 level during Asian session on Monday. The rebound is largely driven by renewed pressure on the US Dollar (USD) after Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the US credit rating by one notch, from Aaa to Aa1.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN News on Sunday, President Donald “Trump has put them on notice that if you do not negotiate in good faith, you will ratchet back up to your April 2 level.”
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on Friday's move higher and attract fresh sellers at the start of a new week.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde spoke in an interview with French media, La Tribune Dimanche, published on Saturday.
China’s April Retail Sales rose 5.1% year-over-year (YoY) vs. 5.5% expected and 5.9% in March, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday.
China Retail Sales (YoY) below expectations (5.5%) in April: Actual (5.1%)
China Industrial Production (YoY) above expectations (5.5%) in April: Actual (6.1%)
China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) below expectations (4.2%) in April: Actual (4%)
Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from recent losses, trading near $3,230 per troy ounce during Monday’s Asian session. The rebound is fueled by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising concerns over the US economic outlook and fiscal health.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Tuesday that the central bank “will keep raising interest rates if economy, prices improve in line with our forecast.”
The USD/JPY pair attracts fresh sellers on Monday and drops to over a one-week trough, around the 144.80 area during the Asian session.
China House Price Index rose from previous -4.6% to -4% in April
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1916 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1938 and 7.2057 Reuters estimate.
EUR/USD rebounds from previous session losses, trading near 1.1190 during Monday's Asian session.
The AUD/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and consolidates just above the 0.6400 round-figure mark during the Asian session.
Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday, speaking in the parliament this Monday, showed reluctance to accept US tariffs, including for cars, and said that seeking a win-win deal with the US is the key.
New Zealand Producer Price Index - Output (QoQ) registered at 2.1% above expectations (0.1%) in 1Q
New Zealand Producer Price Index - Input (QoQ) above expectations (0.2%) in 1Q: Actual (2.9%)
New Zealand Business NZ PSI: 48.5 (April) vs previous 49.1