Forex News Timeline

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

United States Redbook Index (YoY) down to 5.4% in May 16 from previous 5.8%

Pound Sterling (GBP) is also entering Tuesday’s NA session unchanged against the US Dollar (USD) and stuck within a flat channel at the upper end of its longer-term range, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is also entering Tuesday’s NA session unchanged against the US Dollar (USD) and stuck within a flat channel at the upper end of its longer-term range, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Near-term support is located around 1.3250"This week’s data highlight will be Wednesday’s CPI release for the month of April, with expectations of a significant increase in headline and a moderate increase in core." "The release is unlikely to shift near-term expectations for the BoE, where rates are expected unchanged for the next meeting in June. August is currently priced at 18bpts, with September fully priced for a 25bpts cut." "GBP/USD’s price action continues to be defined by the flat range bound between the mid-May low in the mid-1.31s and the late April high in the mid-1.34s. Momentum is neutral and we look to near-term support around 1.3250."

Euro (EUR) is entering Tuesday’s NA session largely unchanged vs. the USD while trading with modest support over the past week or so, ignoring continued dovish messaging from key policymakers at the ECB, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Euro (EUR) is entering Tuesday’s NA session largely unchanged vs. the USD while trading with modest support over the past week or so, ignoring continued dovish messaging from key policymakers at the ECB, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. No momentum in either direction"Governing Council member Knot appears to be leaning toward a cut at the next meeting on June 5. The rates market is pricing nearly one full cut for the meeting and more than two cuts by the end of the year. For EUR/USD, the outlook for relative central bank policy is critical and medium-term EUR gains will require renewed support from spreads via greater pricing of Fed easing." "In terms of the near-term data calendar, this week’s highlight will be the preliminary PMI’s scheduled for release on Thursday and Germany’s IFO business sentiment figures, also scheduled for May 22." "The RSI is hovering around 50, indicating a complete lack of momentum in either direction. The recent range has been defined by the late April high in the upper 1.15s and last week’s support below 1.11. Near-term support is expected at 1.1150 with resistance expected above 1.1350."

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) continues to pivot around the mid-1.39 point as investors await signs on how US/Canada trade relations are going to evolve and the impact that will have on Canada’s domestic prospects, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) continues to pivot around the mid-1.39 point as investors await signs on how US/Canada trade relations are going to evolve and the impact that will have on Canada’s domestic prospects, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Momentum is pretty week on the intraday and daily charts"Immediate focus today falls on today on the April CPI report (the street and Scotia anticipate a 0.2% M/M decline in headline prices). Inflation is expected to fall sharply in Y/Y terms—to 1.6%, from March’s 2.3%. Core measures of inflation are forecast to remain unchanged from March, however, at 2.9% (Median) and 2.8% (for the Trim measure)." "Spot is holding a relatively tight range just under the 1.40 point (200-day MA at 1.4024) as the market consolidates the nudge higher in the USD from 1.38 last week. Momentum is pretty week on the intraday and daily charts, which suggests more, broad range trading in the short run between 1.38/1.40. Intraday support is 1.3910/15."

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate by 25bps to 3.85%, as we had expected. The policy statement and Governor Bullock’s subsequent press conference both screened as dovish.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate by 25bps to 3.85%, as we had expected. The policy statement and Governor Bullock’s subsequent press conference both screened as dovish. An escalation in trade tensions or labour market weakness may spur more aggressive RBA policy easing, Standard Chartered's economist Nicholas Chia report. 25bps cut a 'consensus' decision"The RBA lowered the cash rate by 25bps to 3.85% at its 20 May monetary policy meeting, as we and the market had expected. But we were surprised by the dovish overtones in both the RBA Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) and Governor Bullock’s subsequent press conference, where she characterised the rate decision as a 'confident cut'.""Our reading of the RBA’s policy decision is that it is attaching more weight to the labour market side of the dual mandate, now that trimmed mean inflation is back within the 2-3% target band. In the last line of the policy statement, it replaced the reference to 'returning inflation to target' with 'focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment'. The SoMP stated that risks to inflation have become more 'balanced', whereas the RBA had warned of stalling disinflation in the February SoMP. Overall, we think the RBA remains eager to preserve labour market gains, even as it conceded that its assessment of full employment is 'uncertain'.""We maintain our call for just one more 25bps cut in Q3, taking the terminal cash rate to 3.60%. Our baseline differs from what is priced in by the market (c.67bps of cuts, or 3.2% by end-2025), but we await Q2 CPI data before considering any changes. We expect the RBA to ease policy at meetings accompanied by the SoMP, as these meetings come after the release of the quarterly CPI print with updated economic forecasts."

Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM): 0.4% (April) vs -0.2%

Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0.5%) in April

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.2%) in April

Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (1.6%) in April: Actual (1.7%)

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) up to 2.5% in April from previous 2.2%

The US Dollar (USD) is trading marginally softer on the session. Trade is relatively quiet on the face of it, with the North American holiday schedule (Memorial Day next Monday) after Canada’s day off yesterday perhaps affecting participation, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading marginally softer on the session. Trade is relatively quiet on the face of it, with the North American holiday schedule (Memorial Day next Monday) after Canada’s day off yesterday perhaps affecting participation, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD trades slightly lower, recent rebound may be peaking"The AUD is underperforming after the RBA delivered a 'dovish' rate cut earlier—a 25bps cut in the Cash Rate to 3.85% and a downgrade of growth and inflation forecasts that point to more easing ahead for a central bank that has been slower to participate in the global easing cycle than most other major central banks. The PBoC also cut two benchmark rates to historic lows earlier; both the 1– and 5-year Loan Prime Rates were cut a tenth of a point to 3.0% and 3.5% respectively. AUD weakness has pulled the NZD lower ahead of tonight’s NZ trade data. ""The CNY is marginally softer on the session. High beta FX is outperforming, with the MXN and ZAR leading intraday gains against the USD. Asian and European stocks are firmer but US equity futures are down on the session amid concerns that the recent rebound may be running out of legs. Trade uncertainty remains high and while last week’s US sovereign credit downgrade can hardly have come as a surprise to markets—and had little, obvious impact on the already weak trend in US debt over the past few weeks—investors cannot be complacent amid signs that the US economic momentum may be slowing amid the fallout from President Trump’s tariff policy." "Risk reversal pricing continues to reflect a continued strengthening in dollar-bearish sentiment, with the premium for 3m EUR calls over similar delta EUR puts reaching 1%, the highest since 2009 (outside of the pandemic market volatility). Indeed, the broader downtrend in the DXY remains intact, with the index push to 102 last week satisfying corrective pressure, without signaling a reversal. If anything, the fall back from last week’s peak suggests the rebound is poised to fade and reverse to the downside."

The Australian Dollar (AUD) inches lower to 0.6415 against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, attempting to stabilize near the previous day's low.

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) inches lower to 0.6415 against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, attempting to stabilize near the previous day's low. The Aussie came under renewed pressure after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, from 4.10% to 3.85%, the lowest level since 2023. The move was widely anticipated by financial markets, with major banks including Westpac and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) pricing in a quarter-point cut ahead of the meeting.AUD/USD slipped around 0.65% to 0.6408 following the decision, reversing Monday’s modest gains. Political instability added to the bearish tone after the National Party withdrew support from Australia’s opposition coalition. Additionally, sentiment around the Aussie soured on the back of a fresh rate cut by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), which fueled growth concerns in Australia’s top trading partner.The RBA noted in its policy statement that the upside risks to inflation have eased, with recent data showing a continued slowdown in price pressures. “Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance,” Governor Michele Bullock noted. Striking a more measured tone compared to February’s hawkish stance, Bullock acknowledged that the global context has shifted for the worse, citing US President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement and ongoing uncertainty around the international outlook. Speaking to reporters after the decision, she said the board had considered both holding rates steady and a larger 50 basis point cut, but ultimately opted for a cautious 25 bps move.“Does it mean we’re headed into a long series of interest rate cuts? I don’t know at this point… that’s why I think the cautious 25-basis-point cut with a recognition that if we need to move quickly, we can. We have got space,” she added.Still, the Aussie found some support from a broadly weaker US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) extended its losing streak to trade near the 100.00 mark on Tuesday as USD bulls remain sidelined after Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating to Aa1, citing rising debt levels and widening fiscal deficits. Also, growing concerns over the US fiscal outlook following President Donald Trump’s approval of new tax cuts without offsetting spending reductions continue to pressure the Greenback. RBA FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening. How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar? Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is slipping lower for a second consecutive day on Tuesday as markets continue to digest the recent downgrade of the rating in US debt, which led to a rollercoaster in US bond markets. 

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France, the United Kingdom and Canada are considering sanctions on Israel if the country does not call off its ground offensive in Gaza and allows food supplies to enter the Strip. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushed back by saying that Israel has the right to defend itself. Regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, EU leaders condemned the retreat of United States (US) President Donald Trump after his two-hour call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite the bold claims that a deal would be brokered within days after becoming President and that a peace deal would not be possible without the US, President Trump said that the US would back out of any further talks by saying “it’s not our war to deal with”, Bloomberg reported. The unraveling adds to further losing credibility, hitting the value of the US Dollar. In a relatively calm week in terms of economic data, traders brace for more comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on Tuesday after Monday’s mostly hawkish tone seen among many of them.Daily digest market movers: Failed big timeMarkets are downgrading the US Dollar even further as US President Trump is apparently unfit to solve the Ukraine-Russia debacle. After the two-hour call with Russian President Putin, President Trump said talks between the EU, Russia and Ukraine would start, without any military or sanction-related support in order to speed up the peace process, Bloomberg reports. An army of Fed speakers stands ready on an otherwise dry Tuesday in terms of US economic data:At 13:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks on growth in rural communities at the Investing in Rural America Conference in Roanoke, Virginia.At 17:00 GMT, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks at the Economic Club of Minnesota Event at the University of Minnesota Campus.Near 21:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank Governor Adriana Kugler delivers a commencement address at the Spring 2025 Berkeley Economics Commencement Ceremony..At 23:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic speaks on a panel with other Reserve Bank presidents at the Atlanta Fed's 2025 Financial Markets Conference in Florida. At that same time, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth M. Hammack both participate in a moderated Q&A.Equities are mixed on Tuesday, with European equities edging up after the German DAX eked out another all-time high. US equity futures are facing some downside on Tuesday. The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June’s meeting at just 8.6%. Further ahead, the July 30 decision sees odds for rates being lower than current levels at 33.1%.The US 10-year yields trade around 4.43%, cooling down from the steep rally seen on Monday.  US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Dented imageThe US Dollar Index is losing some more of its shine on Tuesday. After the creditworthiness and its safe-haven status issue due to the credit rating downgrade, the fact that President Trump might walk away from any further attempts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine can be perceived as another element of untrustworthiness.  The fact that the Trump administration might switch or even U-turn on any matter will stick with trader sentiment when considering how to deal with the US Dollar. On the upside, 101.90 is the first big resistance again as it already acted as a pivotal level throughout December 2023 and as a base for the inverted head-and-shoulders (H&S) formation during the summer of 2024. The 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 101.94 reinforces this area as strong resistance. In case Dollar bulls push the DXY even higher, the 103.18 pivotal level comes into play.As for supports, the ascending trend line and support level at 100.22 is under pressure and could snap at any moment if more selling pressure emerges. A nosedive move could materialize towards the year-to-date low of 97.91 and the pivotal level of 97.73. Further below, a relatively thin technical support comes in at 96.94 before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) is strengthening against the US Dollar (USD) and hits a fresh year-to-date high on Tuesday as markets turn cautious ahead of Wednesday’s House vote on President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.” 

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}The Mexican Peso strengthens as Trump's "Big Beautiful" tax bill comes into focus. Developments in the United States and the performance of the US Dollar continue to be significant factors influencing the USD/MXN exchange rate. The USD/MXN has dropped to its lowest point in seven months, driven by a resurgence of weakness in the US Dollar.The Mexican Peso (MXN) is strengthening against the US Dollar (USD) and hits a fresh year-to-date high on Tuesday as markets turn cautious ahead of Wednesday’s House vote on President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.” The legislative uncertainty surrounding the proposed tax package weighs on the USD, with investors assessing its potential implications for US fiscal policy and debt levels.Fresh developments have intensified pressure on the Greenback, allowing the Mexican Peso to seize momentum in the European session. As the market responds, USD/MXN has slipped by 0.15%, trading below the pivotal level of 19.30 at the time of writing.Mexican Peso daily digest: USD/MXN remains at the mercy of the GreenbackAs the US Dollar drives broader market direction, shifts in USD sentiment, driven by US fiscal policy, economic data, or Fed signals, tend to dictate the short-term trajectory of USD/MXN, with the Peso reacting accordingly.The House will vote on President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which aims to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and introduce new tax relief measures. While the bill could boost short-term growth, it is projected to increase the federal deficit significantly over the next decade, raising concerns about long-term US debt sustainability and putting pressure on the US Dollar.Throughout the day, Fed officials Thomas Barkin, Alberto Musalem, Adriana Kugler, Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly, and Beth Hammack are scheduled to speak, with markets closely watching their remarks for clues on the Fed’s policy outlook amid fiscal and economic uncertainty.On Friday, Moody’s became the latest credit agency to downgrade the US sovereign rating.As perceived credit risk rises, the US must offer higher interest rates to attract investors who might otherwise shift capital to alternative safe-haven assets. On Wednesday, Mexico will release its March retail sales data, while on Thursday, the country will release the first half-month inflation for May and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the first quarter. On the US side, S&P Global will release the preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMIs) for May and Existing Home Sales data for April on Thursday for fresh economic signals.In short, the USD/MXN pair is sensitive to data that reshapes expectations for growth, inflation, and central bank direction in either country.Mexican Peso technical analysis: Peso holds gains as USD/MXN consolidates between key levelsThe USD/MXN has dropped to its lowest level since October, breaking through the previous psychological support level, which has now turned into resistance at 19.30. Currently, prices are below the descending trendline established during the decline in April. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator at 36.19 shows an increase in bearish momentum. Since the 30 mark is considered a potential oversold territory, the bearish trend remains intact, with the next key support level at the round number of 19.20. USD/MXN daily chartIf prices fall below 19.20, it could open the door to the October low of around 19.11, paving the way towards the 19.00 mark. On the other hand, if USD strength resurges and prices rise above the descending trendline, USD/XN could see a retest of the April low near 19.47, bringing the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) into play at 19.53. Related news Tug-of-war over the Dollar continues Mexican Peso surges as US Dollar gets battered on Moody’s news USD/MXN breaks key support zone – Société Générale

The USD/JPY pair gauges ground near 144.00 during European trading hours on Tuesday, but is still down 0.2% near 144.50. The pair attracts bids as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after revisiting the weekly low, which it posted on Monday.

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The pair attracts bids as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after revisiting the weekly low, which it posted on Monday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, finds temporary support near 100.10.However, the overall trend of the Greenback is still uncertain as Moody’s Rating has downgraded the United States (US) Sovereign Credit by one-notch to Aa1 from Aaa in the wake of mounting debt concerns, which are expected to widen further in the wake of ‘big beautiful bill” to be announced this week. According to a report from Reuters, the tax bill by Republicans would increase the current $36 trillion debt by $3 trillion-$5 trillion.US credit rating erosion has further dampened the US Dollar’s credibility, which is already battered by Washington’s “ever-changing” announcements on tariff policies.Domestically, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continue to guide a “wait and see” approach as an increase in tariffs by the administration is expected to de-anchor consumer inflation. Such a scenario discourages the Fed from lowering interest rates.On the Tokyo front, investors seek fresh cues on when Japan will close a bilateral deal with the US. Earlier in the day, Japan’s Kyodo News agency reported that top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa will visit Washington for the third round of trade talks. This indicates that the Asian would not be the one with whom the US could announce any trade deal.On Monday, the White House’s economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, signaled hopes of more trade deals sooner. “I would not be surprised if there are more trade deals this week,” Hassett.During European trading hours, the Kyodo News Agency reported that Japan is considering accepting lower US tariff rates and not demanding an exemption.  US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
  

European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said on Tuesday that the medium-term inflation outlook is too uncertain to say whether the ECB needs to cut key rates again in June, per Reuters.

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USD/MXN has broken below a key consolidation range, forming a bearish rounding top pattern and signaling further downside risks toward multi-month lows, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

USD/MXN has broken below a key consolidation range, forming a bearish rounding top pattern and signaling further downside risks toward multi-month lows, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Rebound likely capped below 19.85"USD/MXN broke the lower limit of a multi-month consolidation and has formed a rounding top pattern which generally points towards potential downside. It is now challenging the trough of last week near 19.30.""If a brief rebound develops, lower end of previous range at 19.67/19.85 could cap upside. Next objectives could be located at last September / October lows of 19.10/19.00 and 18.70."

GBP/USD remains in an uptrend, consolidating near key resistance at 1.3430, with potential for further gains if this level is breached, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

GBP/USD remains in an uptrend, consolidating near key resistance at 1.3430, with potential for further gains if this level is breached, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Uptrend pauses within bullish flag"GBP/USD up move has stalled after reaching last year high of 1.3430. It has evolved within a flag; this pattern denotes a brief pause within uptrend. The pair has maintained above the 50-DMA (1.3130), which highlights prevalence of upward momentum.""The MA and recent pivot low near 1.3130 is a short-term support. The pair is inching higher towards 1.3430. Cross above this can lead to an extension in uptrend towards projections of 1.3510 and 1.3620."

In addition to the forecasts for Platinum, Metals Focus has also published forecasts for Palladium, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

In addition to the forecasts for Platinum, Metals Focus has also published forecasts for Palladium, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Mine production of Palladium is expected to fall by 6% this year"The Palladium market is expected to post a physical supply deficit (excluding ETF demand) of 254 thousand ounces this year. Last year, this figure was 407 thousand ounces. The reason for the lower supply deficit is falling demand, which is expected to decline by 3% to 9.42 million ounces. The decline in demand is due to weaker demand from the automotive industry, which is expected to fall by 5% for the second year in a row." "The fact that the supply deficit is not even smaller is due to the expected simultaneous decline in supply of 2% to 9.16 million ounces. Like Platinum, Palladium supply is being curbed by the low price level. According to Metals Focus estimates, 16% of Platinum group metal production was loss-making last year, which led to a series the of cost-cutting announcements and production cuts. In contrast to 2024, there is unlikely to be any positive supply stimulus this year as a result of additional work-in-process material." "As a result, mine production of Palladium is expected to fall by 6% this year. According to Metals Focus, above-ground Palladium inventories fell to 11.3 million ounces last year, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, they would still cover 14 months' demand. Falling demand from the automotive industry and the resulting shrinking supply deficit argue against a significantly higher Palladium price. We see Palladium at $950 per troy ounce by the end of the third quarter and at $1,000 per troy ounce by the middle of next year."

According to a Reuters report, the EU intends to propose lowering the price cap for Russian Oil from $60 to $50 per barrel at the meeting of G7 finance ministers, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

According to a Reuters report, the EU intends to propose lowering the price cap for Russian Oil from $60 to $50 per barrel at the meeting of G7 finance ministers, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes. EU wants to propose the price cap for Russian Oil at $50 pb"Now that Oil prices have fallen so sharply, the current cap no longer takes effect and Russian exporters can utilise the usual freight rates and insurance. Further sanctions against the so-called shadow fleet — such as those to be adopted today as part of the 17th sanctions package — will then no longer apply."

US Dollar (USD) is likely to edge higher, but any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 7.2330. In the longer run, downward momentum has largely faded; USD is likely to trade in a 7.1850/7.2450 range for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to edge higher, but any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 7.2330. In the longer run, downward momentum has largely faded; USD is likely to trade in a 7.1850/7.2450 range for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Advance is unlikely to reach 7.233024-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we expected USD to 'trade in a sideways range of 7.1990/7.2190.' Our call for sideways trading was not wrong, even though USD traded in a narrower range than expected (7.2042/7.2178), closing largely unchanged (7.2140. +0.06%). Despite the quiet price action, there has been a tentative buildup in upward momentum. Today, USD is likely to edge higher, but as momentum is not strong, any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 7.2330. There is another resistance level at 7.2250. Support is at 7.2100, followed by 7.2000." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have held a negative USD view since early this month. In our most recent narrative from last Friday (16 May, spot at 7.2040), we highlighted that USD 'has not been able to make significant headway on the downside.' We added, 'However, only a breach of 7.2330 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the likelihood of USD declining to 7.1700 has faded.' Although 7.2330 has not been breached yet, after the quiet price action over the past couple of days, downward momentum has largely faded. Instead of weakening, USD is likely to trade in a 7.1850/7.2450 range for now."

In its annual Global Electrical Vehicle Outlook, the International Energy Agency notes an unbroken high growth trend in electric mobility, particularly in China and many emerging markets, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

In its annual Global Electrical Vehicle Outlook, the International Energy Agency notes an unbroken high growth trend in electric mobility, particularly in China and many emerging markets, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes. Share of electromobility in total electricity consumption to increase"At 17 million electric vehicles (EVs), around 25% more were sold last year than in the previous year. With sales of 11 million EVs, China once again led the way: almost every second new car sold there was electric, which means that almost one in ten vehicles on China's roads is now electric. In Europe and the US, on the other hand, the advance has stalled somewhat." "Nevertheless, the IEA expects global sales to reach a record 20 million EVs this year. This would correspond to a quarter of total car sales. By 2030, the share is expected to rise to 40%. According to the IEA, this would replace around 5 million barrels of daily global oil consumption (currently around 1.3 million barrels per day)." "Conversely, this means that the share of electromobility in total electricity consumption will increase significantly, from 0.7% last year to 2.5% in 2030."

There has been no further increase in downward momentum; instead of weakening, US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade between 144.60 and 145.70.

There has been no further increase in downward momentum; instead of weakening, US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade between 144.60 and 145.70. In the longer run, USD remains in consolidation, but likely within a tighter range of 144.50/147.30, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD remains in consolidation24-HOUR VIEW: "When USD was at 145.30 in the early Asian session yesterday, we highlighted that 'downward momentum is building, and USD could drop below 144.90.' However, we were of the view that 'the major support at 144.50 is unlikely to come under threat.' We were not wrong, as USD dropped to 144.64 before settling lower by 0.53% at 144.85. There has been no further increase in downward momentum, and instead of weakening today, USD is more likely to trade between 144.60 and 145.70." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We highlighted yesterday (19 Mays, spot at 145.30) that USD 'remains in a consolidation, but we now tighten the range to 144.50/147.30.' We also highlighted that, 'Looking ahead, should USD break clearly below 144.50, it could trigger a deeper decline.' There is no change in our view."

EUR/USD gains further to near 1.1250 in Tuesday’s European session, following the previous day’s upside move.

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The major currency pair remains on the frontfoot as the United States (US) Sovereign Credit downgrade by Moody’s continues to batter the US Dollar (USD), with the US Dollar Index (DXY) extending its downside to near 100.00.On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa. This move shifted the focus of financial market participants to the growing $36 trillion US government debt pile and fiscal imbalances, which would lead to a long-term increase in the cost of capital for the US administration.Investors are worried that the US debt issues are expected to widen further, with US President Donald Trump's “big beautiful bill” likely adding $3 trillion-$5 trillion to the already giant debt stress.This has renewed concerns over the US Dollar’s credibility, which has already been battered by “ever-changing” headlines on the tariff policy by Washington.Meanwhile, fresh concerns over de-escalation in the US-China trade war have also weighed on the Greenback. Earlier in the day, China accused the US of discouraging the use of Huawei-made Artificial Intelligence (AI) chips and Chinese AI models, highlighting them as a threat to US export control.According to a Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson, the US Commerce Department's advice is "discriminatory" and "market distorting," prompting Beijing to "demand" that the administration "correct its mistakes.” Beijing warned that comments from Washington pointing to Chinese-made chips as a threat undermine the trade agreement, which took place in Geneva last weekend.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD gains despite downside risks to Eurozone inflationFurther upside in the EUR/USD pair is also driven by some Euro (EUR) strength. The major currency pair continues to attract bids even though the executive arm of the European Union (EU) has warned of risks to inflation undershooting the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of 2%.The spring forecast report released by the EU’s executive arm on Monday showed that consumer inflation will return to the 2% target by the middle of the year, averaging around 1.7% in 2026. According to the report, lower energy costs, the rerouting of Chinese goods, and a stronger Euro will be responsible for downside risks to inflation.A slew of ECB officials have also warned of risks to inflation skewing to the downside and have argued in favor of more interest rate cuts. ECB governing council member Isabel Schnabel, who has usually been a hawk, has also expressed confidence that “disinflation is on track” in her comments during European trading hours. However, Schnabel still believes that tariffs by the US will pose “upside risks to inflation in the medium term”. This week, investors will focus on the preliminary HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for May, which will be published on Thursday. According to the estimates, the overall business activity is expected to have grown at a faster pace than in April.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD rises to near 1.1250EUR/USD moves higher to near 1.1250 on Tuesday. The near-term outlook of the pair is bullish as it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.1214.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among traders.Looking up, the April 28 high of 1.1425 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

China's refineries appear to have used the recent low Oil prices primarily to increase their inventories, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

China's refineries appear to have used the recent low Oil prices primarily to increase their inventories, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Second largest Oil consumption market remains a concern"This is because the still high crude Oil imports in April were accompanied by rather weak crude Oil processing: It fell last month to 58 million tons or 14.1 million barrels per day, which was significantly below the March level and also 1.4% below the previous year's level." "According to the Chinese consulting firm Sublime China, refinery capacity utilisation was at its lowest level since 2022 at just under 74%. Taking into account domestic Oil production, which was still 1.5% higher than the previous year, crude Oil inventories increased by just under 2 million barrels per day in April." "Adjusted for net exports of refined products, which have now also been reported, China's apparent Oil demand in the same month was a good 5.5% below the previous year, according to Bloomberg calculations. This means that the second largest Oil consumption market remains a concern."

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to continue its cycle of interest rate cuts, lowering its key interest rate by another 25 basis points to 3.85% this morning, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to continue its cycle of interest rate cuts, lowering its key interest rate by another 25 basis points to 3.85% this morning, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes. AUD takes a slight hit Tuesday morning"The RBA forecasts that, while headline inflation is likely to rise over the coming year to around the top of the band as temporary factors unwind, underlying inflation is expected to be around the midpoint of the 2-3% range throughout much of the forecast period. Admittedly, there are signs that the labor market remains tight, but there are uncertainties regarding developments at home and abroad and the lags in the effects of monetary policy.""All in all, the RBA thinks that inflation risks have decreased, while the risks to domestic economic development remain high – here, the RBA expects headwinds. According to the RBA, the interest rate cut makes monetary policy somewhat less restrictive. At the same time, according to the RBA, monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they were to have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia.""Ultimately, the RBA's statement does not indicate that it is considering pausing or ending the interest rate cycle. This is why the AUD took a slight hit this morning."

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a 0.5900/0.5950 range vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, outlook remains mixed, but NZD is likely to trade in a tighter range of 0.5835/0.5985, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a 0.5900/0.5950 range vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, outlook remains mixed, but NZD is likely to trade in a tighter range of 0.5835/0.5985, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Outlook for NZD remains mixed24-HOUR VIEW: "In the early Asian session yesterday, we noted that 'there has been a tentative buildup in upward momentum.' We expected NZD to 'edge higher and test 0.5920.' We highlighted that 'the major resistance at 0.5985 is unlikely to come into view.' We were not wrong, even though NZD rose more than expected to 0.5932. Despite the advance, there has been no significant increase in upward momentum. Today, we expect range trading, albeit likely in a higher range of 0.5900/0.5950." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Wednesday (14 May, spot at 0.5935), we highlighted that 'the recent price movements have resulted in a mixed outlook', and we expected NZD to 'trade in a 0.5835/0.6030 range.' Yesterday (19 May, spot at 0.5890), we indicated that 'The outlook remains mixed, but we now expect a tighter range of 0.5835/0.5985.' We continue to hold the same view."

The damage to Fed independence doesn't have to happen with a big bang, but could be much more subtle.

The damage to Fed independence doesn't have to happen with a big bang, but could be much more subtle. There is criticism of the Fed from parts of the MAGA camp because it allegedly spends too much money: too many staff, the new office building is too expensive ('a second Palace of Versailles'), etc. That is why it must be subject to political control, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. Lavish buildings seen as threat and justification"I am also sometimes surprised that at a time when commercial banks are practicing new modesty (there has been scaffolding in front of my office for months!), central banks are building buildings that make your jaw drop. This observation is actually an argument in favor of central bank independence. It shows that no one who can print money can resist the temptation to spend unnecessarily. Not even central banks. It's just that in their case, it's not so bad. They can't build such huge, palatial office buildings that it becomes relevant in macroeconomic terms. If finance ministers had this option, things would look very different.""The macroeconomic damage would be enormous, with accelerating inflation as a result. It is therefore a hundred times better to allow central banks their buildings and lavish staffing levels than to attack their independence. The Fed has now announced that it will cut 10% of its staff in anticipatory obedience. Does that reassure me? On the contrary! The Fed has shown itself to be responsive to political pressure.""In the worst case scenario, we could end up with a Fed that has shrunk so much that it is de facto incapable of acting. Very much like USAID . This is another way in which central bank independence can be abolished."

Readily available Aluminium inventories in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses jumped by 92,950 tonnes to 343,025 tonnes yesterday. It’s the biggest tonnage increase since May 2024.

Readily available Aluminium inventories in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses jumped by 92,950 tonnes to 343,025 tonnes yesterday. It’s the biggest tonnage increase since May 2024. It comes after Aluminium ordered for withdrawal from warehouses in Malaysia was placed back on warrant, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Chinese Aluminium output reaches a record high in April"Aluminium prices on the LME fell more than 1% in yesterday’s trading, leading most metals lower. Surging inventories added to the downbeat mood along with Moody’s downgrade of US debt and mixed economic data releases from China.""Meanwhile, in Aluminium supply developments, Chinese output reached a record high last month. Primary Aluminium output in April rose 4.2% year-on-year to 3.75m tonnes (flat with the March level). For the year-to-date period, output rose 3.4% year-on-year to 14.79m tonnes, according to the latest data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics."

Australian Dollar (AUD) could continue to rise vs US Dollar (USD), but any advance is unlikely to reach 0.6515; there is another resistance level at 0.6475.

Australian Dollar (AUD) could continue to rise vs US Dollar (USD), but any advance is unlikely to reach 0.6515; there is another resistance level at 0.6475. In the longer run, renewed momentum has increased the odds of AUD breaking above 0.6515, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. AUD has a chance to continue to rise24-HOUR VIEW: "Our view for AUD to 'trade between 0.6390 and 0.6440' yesterday was incorrect, as it soared to 0.6465, closing on a strong note at 0.6458 (+0.84%). Conditions are overbought, but strong momentum suggests AUD could continue to rise. However, any advance is unlikely to reach 0.6515. Note that there is another resistance level at 0.6475. Support levels are 0.6440 and 0.6420." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Wednesday (14 May), when AUD was at 0.6470, we indicated that 'To continue to rise, AUD must break and hold above 0.6515.' After AUD retreated, we indicated last Friday (16 May, spot at 0.6405) that 'a breach of 0.6370 would mean that the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase.' Yesterday, AUD rose to 0.6465. The renewed upward momentum has increased the odds of AUD breaking above 0.6515. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 0.6400 from 0.6370."

FX markets have started the week in quiet fashion. US President Donald Trump's two-hour call with Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have yielded few results and left European leaders with the view that they're on their own in support of Ukraine.

FX markets have started the week in quiet fashion. US President Donald Trump's two-hour call with Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have yielded few results and left European leaders with the view that they're on their own in support of Ukraine. Let's see whether oil and gas prices spike again – they have not so far, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Slight bias to the 99.20 area this week"One new trend over the last week is that most emerging currencies around the world are rallying against the dollar. In Asia, it is speculated that a currency agreement could be included in any US trade deal that is helping. In Latam, the region seems to have avoided the worst of the US tariffs and the relatively high implied yields available (Brazil 14% 1m implied yield through the non-deliverable forward, Mexico 9.3% through the deliverable forward) are proving attractive." "The same can be said of the high return, high risk Turkish lira (43%) and the South African rand (7%). In Europe, the CEE region has had its political challenges, especially in Romania, but the currencies are performing quite well as EUR/USD rises. If the Federal Reserve does ever start cutting rates and – more importantly – volatility settles some more, we will start to hear more about dollar-funded carry trades. This could be a story for this summer.""In the absence of data today, the US calendar only offers Fed speakers. Fed hawks are talking about the need for just one Fed 25bp cut this year, versus the 55bp priced in by money markets. We doubt the dollar needs to rally too much on those remarks and instead it will be driven by tariff news, the performance of US Treasuries (watch out for the 20-year auction tomorrow) and hard US data. DXY has drifted close to 100, and we have a slight bias to the 99.20 area this week. "

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

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The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 99.95 on Tuesday, up from 99.83 on Monday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

US natural Gas prices slumped to a multi-week low as robust storage builds and mild weather forecasts dampened demand expectations, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

US natural Gas prices slumped to a multi-week low as robust storage builds and mild weather forecasts dampened demand expectations, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Prices hit lowest since April"US natural Gas prices came under significant pressure yesterday. Front-month Henry Hub futures settled more than 6.6% lower on the day. This left the market at its lowest level since late April. Strong Gas injections into storage and forecasts for cooler weather in the southern regions of the US have weighed on prices."

You have to look long and hard to find any arguments in favor of the dollar at the moment. And I fear that, in all the turmoil, another structurally negative constellation could ultimately emerge, one that the 'old hands' among us in the market probably still remember: the US twin deficit.

You have to look long and hard to find any arguments in favor of the dollar at the moment. And I fear that, in all the turmoil, another structurally negative constellation could ultimately emerge, one that the 'old hands' among us in the market probably still remember: the US twin deficit. After the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s, the dollar came under pressure for years as markets took a very critical view of the large budget deficit combined with the large trade deficit in the US and punished the dollar, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes. The debate about the US budget is gaining momentum"I fear that the market could soon realize that we could be facing such a situation again. On the one hand, most of the tariffs announced since 'Liberation Day' have been suspended for the time being, so no reduction in US imports is to be expected. At the same time, however, the US continues to consume a lot of foreign goods. A reduction in the US trade deficit, especially on a sustainable basis, therefore seems unlikely at this point in time.""At the same time, the debate about the US budget is gaining momentum. Tariffs will not be nearly enough to plug the holes in the budget. Savings in most areas of the budget are difficult to implement. At the same time, there are fears that, with 10-year US Treasury yields now at 4.5%, it is inevitable that interest payments will significantly increase in the budget, making budget consolidation even more difficult. The market could therefore increasingly question the US's debt sustainability.""If we really do fall back to the beginning of the 2000s and the market runs with this new old topic, the dollar could face a prolonged period of weakness, in part due to the 'twin deficit.' Therefore, I will pay attention to whether I read and notice this word more often from now on, even if I almost couldn't hear it any more back then."

Japanese media outlet, Kyodo News, reported on Tuesday that Japan is considering accepting lower US tariff rates and not demanding exemption.

Japanese media outlet, Kyodo News, reported on Tuesday that Japan is considering accepting lower US tariff rates and not demanding exemption.

The AUD/JPY cross comes under renewed selling pressure following the previous day's modest uptick and drops to a nearly two-week low during the first half of the European session on Tuesday.

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Bets for more BoJ rate hikes in 2025 underpin the JPY and contribute to the slide.The technical setup favors bears and supports prospects for a further depreciation.The AUD/JPY cross comes under renewed selling pressure following the previous day's modest uptick and drops to a nearly two-week low during the first half of the European session on Tuesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 92.70 region, down over 0.85% for the day, and seem vulnerable to slide further.An intraday breakdown and acceptance below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-May move higher validates the negative outlook. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction and are holding deep in the bearish territory on the 4-hour chart. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/JPY cross is to the downside amid the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) dovish outlook, which marks a big divergence in comparison to bets for more rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Hence, some follow-through weakness towards the 91.95-91.75 confluence, comprising the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibo. level, looks like a distinct possibility. A convincing break below the said support should pave the way for deeper losses towards the 91.40 intermediate support before the AUD/JPY cross eventually drops to the 91.00 round figure en route to the 90.84 region, or the 50% Fibo. level. On the flip side, any attempted recovery might now be seen as a selling opportunity near the 93.00 mark. This should cap the AUD/JPY cross near the 93.50-93.60 region, or the 23.6% Fibo. level. A sustained strength beyond the latter, however, might trigger a short-covering move and lift spot prices beyond the 94.00 round figure, towards the 94.65-94.75 region en route to the 95.00 psychological mark. AUD/JPY 4-hour chart RBA FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening. How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar? Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill commented on the policy outlook in his scheduled speech on Tuesday.

Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill commented on the policy outlook in his scheduled speech on Tuesday.Key quotesVote against interest rate cut was a 'skip' within a continuing withdrawal of monetary policy restriction.Inflation pressure indicators give me cause for concern.Quarterly pace of 25 bps cuts seen since last summer is too rapid given the inflation outlook.My dissenting vote was favouring a 'skip' in the quarterly pattern of bank rate cuts.It should not be seen as favouring a halt to withdrawal of restriction.Structural changes in price and wage setting behaviour have increased the intrinsic persistence of the UK inflation process.Pace of quarterly cuts too rapid given the balance of risks to price stability we face.Believes that the underlying disinflation process remains intact.Prospective path of bank rate from here is downward.My dissent from that decision does not reflect a fundamental difference with the committee majority.We now need cautious cuts.

Gold (XAU/USD) price edges slightly lower on Tuesday, looking for direction after giving back the previous day’s gains, falling back to around $3,226 at the time of writing.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price edges lower after Monday’s market turmoil on the Moody’s downgrade for the US credit rating. President Trump hinted that the US might withdraw completely in further attempts to solve the Ukraine-Russia impasse. Gold trades in a tight range, holding above $3,200 in Tuesday’s trading.Gold (XAU/USD) price edges slightly lower on Tuesday, looking for direction after giving back the previous day’s gains, falling back to around $3,226 at the time of writing. The pop in Gold got tempered by several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on Monday, commenting on the US credit rating downgrade by rating agency Moody’s.  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said the downgrade could have a ripple effect through the economy, and that another 3 to 6 months of waiting time is needed to see how uncertainty settles, Bloomberg reports.In the geopolitics front, the image of the US got dented a bit further after United States (US) President Donald Trump commented on his two-hour phone call with Vladimir Putin on ending the impasse in Ukraine. President Trump said that negotiations would start immediately, though if they break down again, the US would back away from any further efforts and negotiations. Trump said there were "some big egos involved," and without progress, "I'm just going to back away," repeating a warning that he could abandon the process and concluded with "This is not my war," Reuters reports.That statement suggests that the US President make a complete U-turn, as it was one of his campaign promises, to end the war in his first 100 days. Now that President Trump seems unable to resolve the situation, it looks like Trump will rather pull out and walk away from it. Daily digest market movers: Geopolitical, trade talks, USD to drive Gold’s price Gold fell as the haven-demand boost from Moody’s Ratings downgrade of the US faded, and attention turned back to the easing of trade tensions between the two largest economies, Reuters reports. The Trump administration has granted the final federal permit for a Gold mine being developed by Perpetua Resources Corp., which also has a reserve of antimony, a critical mineral used in munitions. The US Army Corps of Engineers issued the Clean Water Act permit needed for the Stibnite project in Idaho, which was facilitated by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, the chair of the National Energy Dominance Council, according to a statement from his department, Bloomberg reports. US Treasuries are treading steady on Tuesday after whipsawing on Monday with the downgrading of US debt by Moody’s Ratings. US equity-index futures are down 0.3% while Gold dips 0.5% due to weak demand for havens, Bloomberg reports.Gold Price Technical Analysis: Backing away The dented image of the US Dollar (USD) and the US as a whole should be something from which Gold as a safe haven should benefit. Though the headwinds coming from high yields make it difficult for the precious metal to bank on that. Instead, expect to see a sideways pattern for now, until the next catalyst presents itself. On the upside, the pivotal technical level at $3,245 (April 1 high) is acting as resistance, already proved on Monday to be difficult to reclaim. Once through there, the R1 resistance at $3,250 and the R2 resistance at $3,271 are the following levels to watch, though a major catalyst would be needed to get it there.  On the other side, the daily S1 support stands at $3,207, ahead of the $3,200 big figure. In case that level does not hold, expect a move lower to the intraday S2 support at $3,185 and the April 3 high at $3,167, before the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,151.XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Eurozone Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) declined to -1.1% in March from previous 0.2%

Eurozone Construction Output s.a (MoM) rose from previous -0.5% to 0.1% in March

Further Pound Sterling (GBP) strength still seems likely vs US Dollar (USD); any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.3325/1.3410.

Further Pound Sterling (GBP) strength still seems likely vs US Dollar (USD); any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.3325/1.3410. In the longer run, GBP could continue to rise; based on the current momentum, it might find 1.3445 difficult to break, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. GBP can continue to rise24-HOUR VIEW: "After last Friday’s price movements, we indicated yesterday, Monday, that 'the underlying tone still seems firm, and there is a chance for GBP to test 1.3345.' We added, 'The major resistance at 1.3385 is unlikely to come into view.' While our directional call was correct, GBP not only tested 1.3345 but also breached 1.3385, reaching a high of 1.3403 before pulling back. Upward momentum has slowed with the pullback, but further GBP strength still seems likely. However, any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.3325/1.3410. To put it another way, GBP is unlikely to break clearly above 1.3410 today." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Wednesday (14 May, spot at 1.3300), we highlighted that 'the current price movements are part of a range trading phase, and GBP is likely to trade in a 1.3140/1.3405 range for now.' GBP subsequently traded well within the range. Yesterday (19 May, spot at 1.3300), we indicated that 'A 1.3200/1.3385 range may be enough to contain price movements in the near term.' We did not anticipate GBP to rise to 1.3403 before pulling back to close at 1.3363, up by 0.62%. The price action suggests GBP could continue to rise, but based on the current momentum, any advance might find the late April high of 1.3445 difficult to break. On the downside, if GBP breaks below 1.3290 (‘strong support’ level), it would mean that 1.3445 is not coming into view."

Silver price (XAG/USD) seems to extend its losses for the third successive session, trading around $32.30 per troy ounce during the European hours on Tuesday.

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Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a developing bearish bias, as the precious metal price consolidates within a descending channel pattern.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level, indicating a potential for a bearish bias. Additionally, the Silver price is positioned below both the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), further highlighting the short-term downturn momentum is in play.On the downside, the Silver price could retest the six-week low at $31.65, which was recorded on May 15. A break below this level could put downward pressure on the metal price to test the lower boundary of the descending channel pattern around $30.90. A break below the channel could reinforce the bearish bias and open the doors for the price of the precious metal to navigate the region around the eight-month low of $28.00, marked on April 7.The XAG/USD pair is testing its immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of $32.48, followed by the descending channel’s upper boundary around the psychological level of $33.00. A break above this crucial resistance zone could weaken the bearish bias and support the pair to test the seven-week high at $33.69, reached on April 24, followed by the seven-month high of $34.59, last seen on March 28.XAG/USD: Daily Chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The Oil market eked out a small gain yesterday, with ICE Brent holding above US$65/bbl. The scheduled call between President Trump and President Putin doesn’t appear to have led to any significant breakthroughs. Trump said that Russia and Ukraine would begin talks on ending the war.

The Oil market eked out a small gain yesterday, with ICE Brent holding above US$65/bbl. The scheduled call between President Trump and President Putin doesn’t appear to have led to any significant breakthroughs. Trump said that Russia and Ukraine would begin talks on ending the war. However, Putin said the main aim remains to 'eliminate the root causes of the crisis', ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Energy markets are focused on potential peace talks"So, there appears to be little willingness on the Russian side to make any concessions. As such, there was no threat of further sanctions on Russia or a timeline for negotiations. Yet there are concerns that with Trump leaving negotiations to Russia and Ukraine, the US might step back from its role as mediator. Energy markets have been focused on potential peace talks, with an eventual deal possibly leading to an easing of sanctions against Russia.""Iranian nuclear talks appear to be hitting some stumbling blocks. The US has said that any deal with Iran must include a suspension of uranium enrichment, which is a red line. Iran has said that it is “absolutely non-negotiable”. Indirect talks raise prospects for an eventual nuclear deal, which would lead to the lifting of sanctions and increased Iranian Oil supply. However, the latest developments demonstrate that reaching a deal won’t be easy.""Chinese data released yesterday shows refiners processed a little under 14.2m b/d of crude Oil in April, down 5% month-on-month and 1.3% lower year on year. In addition, apparent Oil demand fell to 13.8m b/d last month, down 3.9% MoM and 5.3% lower YoY. It’s the weakest monthly apparent demand number since August. Weaker demand coincides with rising US-China trade tensions following 'Liberation Day'."

Chance for Euro (EUR) to retest the 1.1290 level against the US Dollar (USD) before a more sustained pullback is likely; a clear break above this level is unlikely.

Chance for Euro (EUR) to retest the 1.1290 level against the US Dollar (USD) before a more sustained pullback is likely; a clear break above this level is unlikely. In the longer run, increase in momentum is not sufficient to suggest a sustained advance; EUR must first break decisively above 1.1290, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Increase in momentum is not sufficient to suggest a sustained advance24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected EUR to 'trade with an upward bias' yesterday. We pointed out that 'as momentum is not strong currently, any advance is likely limited to a test of 1.1225.' However, EUR surged past 1.1225 to reach 1.1288 before retreating to close at 1.1242 (+0.71%). The decline from the high has resulted in a slowdown in upward momentum, but there is a chance for a retest of the 1.1290 level before a more sustained pullback is likely. A clear break above 1.1290 appears unlikely. On the downside, should EUR break below 1.1195 (minor support is at 1.1215), it would suggest that it is more likely to trade in a range instead of retesting 1.1290." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our latest narrative was from last Thursday (15 May, spot at 1.1180), wherein EUR 'has likely entered a consolidation phase, and it is likely to trade between 1.1100 and 1.1290 for the time being.' After range trading for a few days, EUR rose and reached 1.1288 yesterday. The increase in momentum is not sufficient to suggest a sustained advance. EUR must first break decisively above 1.1290 before a move to 1.1330 can be expected. Currently, the chance of EUR breaking clearly above 1.1290 is not high, but it could grow in the next few days as long as 1.1165 is not breached."

AUD/USD briefly sold off around 0.3% on the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to cut rates 25bp today to 3.85%, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

AUD/USD briefly sold off around 0.3% on the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to cut rates 25bp today to 3.85%, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.AUD/USD can remain pretty steady near 0.65"It looks like it might have considered cutting 50bp. The market prices 37bp of cuts by the 12 August meeting and has a landing zone of about 3.00% for the policy rate next year. With the jury still out on global demand as the tariff war rumbles on, we think AUD/USD can remain pretty steady near 0.65 over the coming quarters."

The Pound Sterling (GBP) rises to near 1.3380 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair gains for a second consecutive day as the US Dollar continues to suffer due to a one-notch downgrade in the United States (US) sovereign credit by Moody’s Rating.

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The GBP/USD pair gains for a second consecutive day as the US Dollar continues to suffer due to a one-notch downgrade in the United States (US) sovereign credit by Moody’s Rating. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, weakens near the weekly low slightly above 100.00.On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the US long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings from Aaa to Aa1 over the growing $36 trillion US government debt pile. The move prompted fears about investing in US assets and boosted US bond yields substantially. The initial reaction from 10-year US Treasury yields after the rating downgrade was strong, posting a fresh over-a-month high of around 4.56%. After the initial shock, yields have fallen back to near 4.45%.Another reason behind the US Dollar remaining on the back foot is China accusing the US of undermining high-level trade talks in Geneva last weekend. The accusation from Beijing at Washington came after comments from the US Commerce Department last week that discouraged the use of Huawei Technologies Co.’s artificial-intelligence (AI) chips and Chinese AI models. According to a Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson, the US Commerce Department's advice is "discriminatory" and "market distorting," prompting Beijing to "demand" that the administration "correct its mistakes.”A report from Bloomberg showed last week that the Commerce Department said that it was issuing guidance to make clear the “use of Huawei Ascend chips is a breach of the US government’s export controls”. The agency also warned the public about “the potential consequences of allowing US AI chips to be used for training and inference of Chinese AI models.”Meanwhile, investors look for fresh cues about how much the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates this year. A slew of Fed officials has urged patience as they need more data to assess the economic outlook in the wake of significant economic policy changes. On Monday, Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic stated that inflation will now take longer to return to the 2% and anticipated one interest rate cut this year.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling outperforms as UK-EU secure “reset” agreementThe Pound Sterling trades higher against its peers, except the Japanese Yen (JPY), on Tuesday. The British currency gains as the United Kingdom (UK) signs an agreement with the European Union (EU) on trade, defense, and security that deepens its ties with the continent after Brexit. This is the third bilateral deal by the UK after closing two with India and the United States (US) this month.The major highlights of the deal between the UK and the EU are the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) deal that aims to withdraw routine checks on products from animals and plants, Britain’s participation in the Eurozone’s historic defense spending, and investment of £360 million in the fishing industry.Strong ties between the EU and the UK at a time of potential global economic turmoil due to the fallout of reciprocal tariffs by US President Donald Trump are favorable for both economies.On the domestic front, investors await the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, which will be released on Wednesday. As measured by the CPI, the core inflation – which excludes volatile components of food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco – is expected to have grown at a faster pace of 3.7%, compared to 3.4% in March. The headline CPI is estimated to have risen at a robust pace of 3.3% against the prior release of 2.6%.Data showing accelerating price pressures would force traders to pare bets supporting further interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE). At the start of the month, the BoE cut key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%, with a 7-2 vote split and guided a “gradual and cautious” interest rate cut approach. Two out of seven Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members, Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor, voted for a bigger interest rate reduction by 50 bps. On Monday, Dhingra clarified that she favored a larger-than-usual rate cut to show where the economy is heading. "I get to pick times when I want to be able to make a more categorical statement about where I think the economy is headed," Dhingra said in a podcast interview to the Financial Times (FT), Reuters reported. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling demonstrates strength around 1.3400The Pound Sterling trades firmly around 1.3380 against the US Dollar on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.3280, suggesting that the near-term trend is bullish.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points in the upper boundary of the 40.00-60.00 range. A fresh bullish momentum would appear if the RSI breaks above 60.00.On the upside, the three-year high of 1.3445 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the psychological level of 1.3000 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

EUR/GBP extends its upward momentum for a second consecutive session, trading around 0.8420 during European hours on Tuesday.

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The currency cross remains supported as the Euro (EUR) benefits from improved risk sentiment, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and anticipation of developments on the Russia-Ukraine trade front.US President Donald Trump held a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, announcing that Ukraine and Russia have agreed to commence immediate negotiations for a ceasefire. Notably, the talks may proceed without direct US involvement, signaling a possible shift toward de-escalation in the conflict.Despite these supportive developments, the Euro's upside could be limited as traders increasingly expect further monetary easing from the European Central Bank (ECB). Concerns over sluggish Eurozone growth and inflation have led markets to price in a nearly 90% probability of an ECB rate cut at the June 5 meeting, with just one additional cut anticipated for the remainder of the year, according to Reuters.On the data front, Germany's Producer Price Index fell more sharply than expected, highlighting ongoing deflationary pressures. In April 2025, the PPI dropped 0.9% year-over-year, following a 0.2% decline in March and underperforming the forecasted 0.6% decrease. Month-over-month, the PPI fell 0.6%—its fifth consecutive monthly decline—compared to a 0.7% drop in March and worse than the anticipated 0.3% contraction.Looking ahead, market attention is shifting to the UK’s April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, set for release on Wednesday. The core CPI, which excludes food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, is expected to rise by 3.6% year-over-year, slightly above the previous reading of 3.4%, potentially offering clues about the Bank of England’s (BoE) next policy move. Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

Eurozone Current Account n.s.a up to €60.1B in March from previous €33.1B

Eurozone Current Account s.a came in at €50.9B, above forecasts (€35.9B) in March

All eyes will be on Statistics Canada this Tuesday as it releases the April Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation gauge that the Bank of Canada (BoC) closely tracks when setting interest rates.

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On a monthly basis, however, inflation is projected to have picked up slightly, rising 0.5% versus the previous 0.3% increase.The Bank of Canada will also release its preferred core inflation measures, which aim to strip out volatile price swings for a clearer view of underlying trends. In March, the BoC’s core CPI CPI rose 2.2% from a year earlier.While recent inflation data suggests price pressures are moderating, markets are expected to tread carefully. The figures do not yet reflect the full impact of US trade tariffs recently imposed under the Trump administration—an element that could complicate the inflation outlook in the months ahead. As a result, a cautious tone is likely to prevail among investors and policymakers alike.What can we expect from Canada’s inflation rate?The BoC held its benchmark interest rate at 2.75% last month, pausing after seven consecutive cuts and citing mounting uncertainty surrounding US trade policy as a key reason for withholding its usual economic forecasts.Officials said the unpredictability of US-imposed tariffs and the potential for a broader global trade conflict made it impossible to provide a reliable outlook. Instead of its regular quarterly projections, the bank released two hypothetical scenarios to illustrate possible outcomes:In the more optimistic scenario, most tariffs are eventually rolled back through negotiation. The Bank said this would likely result in a temporary slowdown in Canadian and global growth, with inflation dipping to 1.5% for a year before returning to the 2% target.A more severe scenario envisions a prolonged global trade war. In that case, Canada would enter a deep recession, and inflation would surge past 3% by mid-2026 before gradually easing back to target levels. The bank acknowledged that other outcomes were possible, underscoring the high degree of economic uncertainty.In its annual Financial Stability Report (FSR), the central bank acknowledged that the system remains resilient for now, but it also flagged rising vulnerabilities if trade tensions drag on.Officials pointed to the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on Canadian goods and Ottawa’s retaliatory measures as potential threats. They said that while the financial sector is currently holding up well, ongoing tariff battles could eventually hurt banks and financial institutions by making it harder for households and businesses to manage their debt.The BoC noted that, in the short term, the unpredictability of US trade policy could trigger more market volatility and strain liquidity. In more extreme cases, that kind of turbulence could escalate into broader market dysfunction.Over the medium to long term, the bank said, a full-blown global trade war could have severe economic consequences. When is the Canada CPI data due and how could it affect USD/CAD?Canada’s April inflation data is due out on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT, and markets are bracing for a mixed picture. While there’s a general sense that price pressures may have eased somewhat, the details could go either way.If inflation comes in hotter than expected, it might prompt the BoC to take a more hawkish stance, which could give the Canadian Dollar a boost. On the flip side, softer numbers would likely reinforce expectations for more rate cuts, putting some pressure on the Loonie.That said, a sharp jump in inflation isn’t necessarily good news either. It could raise red flags about the health of the Canadian economy, and ironically, that kind of surprise might end up weighing on the currency too. In short, markets are watching closely—not just for the headline number, but for the broader message it sends about where policy and growth are headed.Senior Analyst Pablo Piovano from FXStreet pointed out that USD/CAD has moved into a consolidative range just below its critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.4012.“If the Canadian dollar manages to clear its 200-day SMA, the near-term outlook should shift to a more constructive one, allowing at the same time for the recovery to gather pace. That said, the 55-day SMA at 1.4098 should offer interim resistance prior to the April high of 1.4414, set on April 1, with a further barrier at the March peak of 1.4542. A breakout above that level could bring the 2025 high of 1.4792, posted on February 3, back into view,” he added.The resurgence of the bearish tone could motivate USD/CAD to embark on a potential visit to its 2025 floor at 1.3838, marked on April 11,” Piovano said. “That would be followed by the November 2024 low at 1.3817, with the next key support seen at the September 2024 trough of 1.3418.”From a technical standpoint, Piovano flagged that USD/CAD is currently signalling some sidelined mood based on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around the 50 threshold. He added that the Average Directional Index (ADX) is easing toward 24 points to some loss of impetus of the current trend. Economic Indicator BoC Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country. Read more. Last release: Wed Apr 16, 2025 13:45 Frequency: Irregular Actual: 2.75% Consensus: 2.75% Previous: 2.75% Source: Bank of Canada
Economic Indicator BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) The BoC Consumer Price Index Core, released by the Bank of Canada (BoC) on a monthly basis, represents changes in prices for Canadian consumers by comparing the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services. It is considered a measure of underlying inflation as it excludes eight of the most-volatile components: fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation and tobacco products. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue May 20, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: - Previous: 2.2% Source: Statistics Canada

The NZD/USD pair halts its two-day winning streak, trading around 0.5930 during the European hours on Tuesday. Daily chart technicals suggest a neutral outlook, with the pair remaining confined within a consolidation rectangle.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}NZD/USD could target the upper edge of its consolidation range around 0.6000.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above the 50 level, indicating a mild bullish bias.The initial support is seen near the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.5913.The NZD/USD pair halts its two-day winning streak, trading around 0.5930 during the European hours on Tuesday. Daily chart technicals suggest a neutral outlook, with the pair remaining confined within a consolidation rectangle.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just above the 50 mark, suggesting a slight bullish inclination. Meanwhile, the NZD/USD pair trades near the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating neutral short-term momentum.The NZD/USD pair may aim for the upper boundary of the consolidation range near 0.6000, with the next target at the six-month high of 0.6038, last reached in November 2024. A decisive break above this key resistance zone could pave the way for a move toward the seven-month high around 0.6350, marked in October 2024.On the downside, initial support for the NZD/USD pair lies around the nine-day EMA at 0.5913. A break below this level would signal weakening short-term momentum, potentially driving the pair toward the 50-day EMA at 0.5850, which aligns with the rectangle’s lower boundary. A sustained move beneath this critical support zone could further erode medium-term momentum, opening the door for a deeper decline toward 0.5485 — a level not seen since March 2020.NZD/USD: Daily Chart New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.28% -0.23% -0.50% -0.10% 0.55% 0.06% -0.45% EUR 0.28% 0.06% -0.21% 0.19% 0.83% 0.35% -0.17% GBP 0.23% -0.06% -0.29% 0.12% 0.75% 0.32% -0.19% JPY 0.50% 0.21% 0.29% 0.41% 1.06% 0.56% 0.11% CAD 0.10% -0.19% -0.12% -0.41% 0.65% 0.16% -0.32% AUD -0.55% -0.83% -0.75% -1.06% -0.65% -0.48% -0.97% NZD -0.06% -0.35% -0.32% -0.56% -0.16% 0.48% -0.48% CHF 0.45% 0.17% 0.19% -0.11% 0.32% 0.97% 0.48% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price is trading around $62.00 per barrel during the early European session on Tuesday, retreating after two consecutive days of gains. The pullback comes as markets evaluate the possible effects of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire on global Oil supply.

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The pullback comes as markets evaluate the possible effects of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire on global Oil supply.According to Reuters, US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that following a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine and Russia are set to begin immediate ceasefire talks—potentially without US involvement. Any relaxation of sanctions on Russia could lead to increased oil exports, adding to an already oversupplied global market.Adding further pressure to Oil prices, Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, clouding the economic outlook for the world's largest Oil consumer. In addition, weaker-than-expected industrial production and retail sales in China, currently the top Oil importer, have reinforced bearish sentiment.At its May policy meeting, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) lowered both the one-year loan prime rate and the five-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points, to 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively. The widely anticipated cuts, which brought both rates to record lows, are part of Beijing’s broader monetary easing strategy aimed at revitalizing a sluggish economy amid escalating trade tensions. These measures may offer some support to Oil demand in the longer term.Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated as Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takhtravanchi warned that negotiations with the US would “lead nowhere” if Washington insists on a full halt to Tehran’s uranium enrichment. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

FX option expiries for May 20 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for May 20 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1195 2.3b1.1245 1.2b1.1250 1.2b1.1300 1.4bGBP/USD: GBP amounts1.3350 250mUSD/JPY: USD amounts                                 145.00 1.1b145.50 1.2bUSD/CHF: USD amounts     0.8325 585mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6350 367mUSD/CAD: USD amounts       1.3900 398m1.3915 434mNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.5915 522m

The USD/CHF pair remains under selling pressure around 0.8335 during the early European session on Tuesday. The rising bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs further this year weigh on the Greenback against the Swiss Franc.

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The rising bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs further this year weigh on the Greenback against the Swiss Franc. Later on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are set to speak, including Thomas Barkin, Alberto Musalem, Adriana Kugler, Raphael Bostic, Mary C. Daly and Beth M. Hammack. Last week, Moody's downgraded its rating for US sovereign credit, citing worries over the country's increasing $36 trillion debt burden. The downgrade underscores growing concerns over fiscal deterioration and tariff-induced distortions under US President Donald Trump and exerts some selling pressure on the Greenback. Meanwhile, Fed officials maintain caution and call for more clarity before committing to policy changes, which caps the upside for the USD. The markets are now pricing in a nearly 91.6% chance of rates holding at 4.25%–4.50% in the June meeting and a 65.1% possibility of no change in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Swiss National Bank (SNB) chairman Martin Schlegel said on Monday that financial market uncertainty is currently "very high,” noting that at such times, appetite for the safe haven CHF increases. The SNB president wouldn’t comment on what might happen next month but emphasized that Switzerland’s “interest rate has a large influence on the exchange rate.” Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

Turkey Consumer Confidence climbed from previous 83.9 to 84.8 in May

European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schanbel said on Tuesday, “disinflation is on track, but new shocks are posing new challenges.”

European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schanbel said on Tuesday, “disinflation is on track, but new shocks are posing new challenges.”Additional commentsTariffs may be disinflationary in the short run but pose upside risks over the medium term.Appreciation of the Euro is historical opportunity to foster the international role of the Euro.

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, May 20:

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Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to stay resilient against its rivals as markets remain risk-averse. Statistics Canada will publish Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April later in the day. Additionally, investors will continue to scrutinize comments from central bank officials. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.85% -0.64% -0.56% -0.18% -0.21% -0.63% -0.40% EUR 0.85% -0.04% 0.11% 0.51% 0.54% 0.05% 0.23% GBP 0.64% 0.04% -0.15% 0.55% 0.58% 0.09% 0.27% JPY 0.56% -0.11% 0.15% 0.40% 0.54% 0.15% 0.23% CAD 0.18% -0.51% -0.55% -0.40% -0.01% -0.45% -0.28% AUD 0.21% -0.54% -0.58% -0.54% 0.01% -0.48% -0.30% NZD 0.63% -0.05% -0.09% -0.15% 0.45% 0.48% 0.17% CHF 0.40% -0.23% -0.27% -0.23% 0.28% 0.30% -0.17% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The PBoC cut its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) on Tuesday. The one-year LPR was cut from 3.1% to 3.00%, while the five-year LPR was cut from 3.60% to 3.50%. In the meantime, China accused the United States (US) of undermining the two countries’ preliminary trade agreement late Monday after the US issued an industry warning against using Chinese chips that singled out Huawei. US stock index futures were last seen losing between 0.3% and 0.5%, while the USD Index was down 0.15% at around 100.20. The RBA lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.85% from 4.1% following the conclusion of its May monetary policy meeting. In the policy statement, the RBA noted that the escalation of the global trade conflict was a key downside risk to the economy. While commenting on the policy outlook, RBA Governor Michele Bullock noted that more adjustments to the policy were possible and added that they have discussed whether to opt for a 25 or a 50 bps cut. After rising more than 0.8% on Monday, AUD/USD stays on the back foot early Tuesday and was last seen losing 0.5% on the day at around 0.6420.USD/CAD trades in a tight channel near 1.3950 in the European morning on Tuesday. Annual inflation Canada, as measured by the change in the CPI, is forecast to decline to 1.6% in April from 2.3% in March.EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase near 1.1250 after rising about 0.7% on Monday. The European Commission will publish preliminary Consumer Confidence Index data for May later in the day.USD/JPY registered losses for the fifth consecutive trading day on Monday. The pair continues to edge lower and trades slightly below 144.50. Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said on Tuesday that he expects any talks with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week to be based on foreign exchange.Gold ended the day marginally higher on Monday. XAU/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum and retreats toward $3,200 early Tuesday.GBP/USD holds its ground and trades above 1.3350 after rising 0.6% on Monday. The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish April CPI data early Wednesday. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

The USD/CAD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move heading into the European session on Tuesday and currently trades around mid-1.3900s, nearly unchanged for the day. Moreover, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets.

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Moreover, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets. Crude Oil prices struggle to attract any meaningful buyers as a US sovereign downgrade by Moody’s seems to have dampened the economic outlook for the world’s biggest energy consumer. Adding to this, mixed Chinese macro data released on Monday weighs on the black liquid, which is seen undermining the commodity-linked Loonie and acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, a potential breakdown in the US-Iran nuclear talks has weakened prospects of more Iranian oil supplies and acts as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices. This, along with subdued US Dollar (USD) demand amid bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates further in 2025, contributes to capping the USD/CAD pair as traders keenly await Canadian consumer inflation figures. Last week's softer-than-expected release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) pointed to signs of easing inflation in the US. Adding to this, the disappointing US monthly Retail Sales data increased the likelihood of several quarters of sluggish growth. This might force the Fed to stick to its policy easing bias and fail to assist the USD to gain any positive traction. Meanwhile, Canada's headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is seen decelerating sharply to the 1.6% YoY rate from 2.3% in the previous month, which, in turn, will back the case for further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC). The market reaction to a stronger print, however, is likely to be limited amid persistent uncertainty around US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by Statistics Canada on a monthly basis, represents changes in prices for Canadian consumers by comparing the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue May 20, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 1.6% Previous: 2.3% Source: Statistics Canada

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.85 per barrel, down from Monday’s close at $62.09.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.85 per barrel, down from Monday’s close at $62.09.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $64.77 after its previous daily close at $65.01. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.6% below forecasts (-0.3%) in April

Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (-0.6%) in April: Actual (-0.9%)

The EUR/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 162.70 during the early European session on Tuesday. The growing expectation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again this year underpins the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Euro (EUR).

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The growing expectation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again this year underpins the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Euro (EUR). Later on Tuesday, the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are set to speak, including Piero Cipollone and Klaas Knot. BoJ deputy governor Shinichi Uchida said that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if the economy rebounds from an expected hit from higher US tariffs, while warning of a highly uncertain outlook. Additionally, the BoJ's Summary of Opinions from the last meeting suggested that policymakers haven't given up on hiking interest rates further, and some board members saw scope to resume rate hikes if developments over US tariffs stabilise. This, in turn, provides some support to the JPY and acts as a headwind for EUR/JPY. On the Euro’s front, traders raise their bets that the ECB will cut its interest rates further due to growing concerns over Eurozone growth and inflation. The markets have priced in nearly a 90% possibility of an ECB rate cut on June 5 but have priced in only one additional reduction over the rest of the year, according to Reuters. ECB policymaker Pierre Wunsch said over the weekend that interest rates would go slightly below 2% amid downside risks to inflation and growth. Wunsch further stated that tariffs imposed by US President Trump have pushed “risks to inflation on the downside.”   Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, oscillates in a range around the 100.35 area through the Asian session on Tuesday and remains close to over a one-week low touched the previous day.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The USD continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction on Tuesday.Bets for more interest rate cuts by the Fed keep the USD bulls on the defensive. Easing US recession fears holds back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, oscillates in a range around the 100.35 area through the Asian session on Tuesday and remains close to over a one-week low touched the previous day. Moreover, the lack of any buying interest and a bearish fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the index remains to the downside. Traders increased their bets for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025 following last week's softer-than-expected release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). Adding to this, the disappointing US monthly Retail Sales data increased the likelihood of several quarters of sluggish growth. This, along with a surprise downgrade of the US government's credit rating on Friday, continues to act as a headwind for the USD. Meanwhile, the US and China agreed to significantly lower tariffs and initiated a 90-day pause to finalize a broader deal. The development marked the de-escalation of a disruptive standoff between the world's two largest economies and eased concerns about a US recession. This, in turn, is holding back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the USD and helping limit the downside on the back of the recent hawkish remarks from several influential FOMC members. Moving ahead, there isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release on Tuesday. Hence, the focus will remain glued to speeches by influential FOMC members, which will play a key role in driving the USD later during the North American session. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.11% -0.13% -0.23% 0.04% 0.43% 0.05% -0.16% EUR 0.11% -0.01% -0.11% 0.16% 0.56% 0.18% -0.04% GBP 0.13% 0.00% -0.12% 0.16% 0.54% 0.20% 0.00% JPY 0.23% 0.11% 0.12% 0.27% 0.66% 0.28% 0.13% CAD -0.04% -0.16% -0.16% -0.27% 0.40% 0.01% -0.17% AUD -0.43% -0.56% -0.54% -0.66% -0.40% -0.37% -0.56% NZD -0.05% -0.18% -0.20% -0.28% -0.01% 0.37% -0.18% CHF 0.16% 0.04% -0.01% -0.13% 0.17% 0.56% 0.18% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is holding a press conference following the announcement of the May monetary policy decision on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is holding a press conference following the announcement of the May monetary policy decision on Tuesday.Earlier this Tuesday, the RBA trimmed the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.85% from 4.1% as widely expected. Key quotesMust now keep inflation down, well placed to do so.This is a confident cut in rates.This is the right cut for now, more adjustments are possible.developing story ....Market reactionAUD/USD is holding lower ground near 0.6430 on the above comments, losing 0.39% on the day, as of writing. RBA FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening. How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar? Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

EUR/USD remains steady after registering more than 0.50% gains in the previous session, trading around 1.1240 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. On the daily chart, technical analysis indicates a bearish bias is in play, as the pair continues to trade lower within a descending channel pattern.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/USD is testing the upper boundary of its descending channel near the 1.1250 level.Technical analysis suggests a bearish bias is active, as the pair remains within the confines of the downward channel.Initial support is seen around the nine-day EMA at 1.1210, followed by stronger support near the 50-day EMA at 1.1093.EUR/USD remains steady after registering more than 0.50% gains in the previous session, trading around 1.1240 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. On the daily chart, technical analysis indicates a bearish bias is in play, as the pair continues to trade lower within a descending channel pattern.However, the EUR/USD pair has moved above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating strengthening short-term momentum. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above the 50 level, reinforcing the potential for a bullish outlook.The EUR/USD pair is likely to find initial support near the nine-day EMA at 1.1211, with additional support at the 50-day EMA around 1.1093. A decisive break below this level could undermine short- to medium-term bullish momentum, potentially driving the pair toward the six-week low at 1.0951 and the lower boundary of the descending channel near 1.0840. If bearish pressure persists, further support may emerge around the two-month low of 1.0778, last seen on April 1.On the upside, the EUR/USD pair may challenge the upper boundary of the descending channel near 1.1250. A breakout above this level could strengthen the bullish bias and open the door for a move toward the April 21 high of 1.1573 — the pair’s highest level since November 2021.EUR/USD: Daily Chart Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.11% -0.14% -0.23% 0.02% 0.32% 0.03% -0.16% EUR 0.11% -0.02% -0.11% 0.14% 0.45% 0.15% -0.04% GBP 0.14% 0.02% -0.10% 0.15% 0.44% 0.19% 0.02% JPY 0.23% 0.11% 0.10% 0.24% 0.54% 0.24% 0.12% CAD -0.02% -0.14% -0.15% -0.24% 0.31% 0.00% -0.14% AUD -0.32% -0.45% -0.44% -0.54% -0.31% -0.29% -0.45% NZD -0.03% -0.15% -0.19% -0.24% -0.01% 0.29% -0.15% CHF 0.16% 0.04% -0.02% -0.12% 0.14% 0.45% 0.15% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The AUD/JPY cross faces some selling pressure to near 93.00 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate decision.

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate decision. The attention will shift to RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference at 05:30 GMT.As widely expected, the RBA board members decided to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) from 4.10% to 3.85% at its May policy meeting on Tuesday. According to the Summary of the RBA monetary policy statement, escalation of global trade conflict is a key downside risk to the economy. Furthermore, the global growth outlook has been downgraded, and uncertainty has increased due to US tariff policies. The Aussie weakens in immediate reaction to the RBA rate cut. The growing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again this year provides some support to the JPY and creates a headwind for the cross. BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Monday that Japan's underlying inflation is likely to re-accelerate after a period of slowdown and that the Japanese central bank will keep raising interest rates if the economy and prices improve as projected. RBA FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening. How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar? Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

The AUD/NZD cross attracts some sellers in reaction to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy decision and drops to over a one-week low, around the 1.0860-1.0855 area in the last hour.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/NZD drifts lower following the RBA’s widely anticipated 25 bps interest rate cut on Tuesday.The central bank’s acknowledgement of inflation progress keeps the door open for more rate cuts.The latest political turmoil in Australia also weighs on the AUD and contributes to an intraday slide. The AUD/NZD cross attracts some sellers in reaction to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy decision and drops to over a one-week low, around the 1.0860-1.0855 area in the last hour. As was widely anticipated, the RBA decided to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.85% from 4.1% at the conclusion of the May monetary policy meeting. The Australian Dollar (AUD), however, weakens across the board after the RBA said in the accompanying policy statement that the March quarter data provided further evidence that inflation continues to ease.Moreover, the Board judged that upside risks to inflation appear to have diminished as international developments are expected to weigh on the economy. Furthermore, the updated staff projections showed that the headline inflation is expected to be around the midpoint of the 2–3% range through much of the forecast period, keeping the door open for more rate cuts and undermining the AUD. Adding to this, the latest political turmoil in Australia turns out to be another factor behind the AUD's underperformance and contributes to the AUD/NZD pair's downfall. With the latest leg down, spot prices now seem to have confirmed a breakdown below a short-term trading range held over the past week or so. This might have already set the stage for a further depreciating move. Economic Indicator RBA Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD. Read more. Last release: Tue May 20, 2025 04:30 Frequency: Irregular Actual: 3.85% Consensus: 3.85% Previous: 4.1% Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 8,824.06 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 8,871.65 it cost on Monday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 102,920.90 per tola from INR 103,477.20 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,824.06 10 Grams 88,242.57 Tola 102,920.90 Troy Ounce 274,452.00   2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls remain on the sidelines amid fading safe-haven demand Moody's downgraded America's top sovereign credit rating by one notch, to "Aa1" on Friday, citing concerns about the nation's growing debt pile. This, however, had a modest impact on the global risk sentiment amid rising trade optimism, which, in turn, failed to assist the safe-haven Gold price to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains. Traders increased their bets on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 following the release of weak US inflation figures and Retail Sales data last week. In fact, the current market pricing indicates higher odds of at least two Fed reductions in 2025. This keeps the US Dollar depressed near a one-week low touched on Monday. On a more hawkish note, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that inflation is not moving to target as fast as anticipated, and inflation expectations are moving in a troubling way. Bostic added that the number of rate cuts this year depends on how things turn out, and details of the tariffs will matter. Bostic leans toward only one rate cut this year. New York Fed President John Williams said that the recent economic data has been very good and that the labor market is pretty much in balance. Williams, however, warned that some forward-looking indicators are signaling concern. The key word for the economy is uncertainty, and the monetary policy is in a good place, Williams added further. Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson noted that the US could face a one-time increase in the price level from tariffs, but needs to be sure that it does not become a sustained increase in inflation. It is too early to tell how the labor market will be affected by trade policies, and the Fed will keep policy in place to be sure that inflation expectations remain anchored. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that the ongoing uncertainty at the hands of the Trump administration's trade policies has put a significant dent in investor sentiment. Kashkari added that there will be lots of jobs in the future of the US economy and backed the Fed's wait-and-see approach until the tariff landscape settles out. On the geopolitical front, the Israeli military issued evacuation orders to people in Khan Yunis – the southern city of Gaza – as it launched a new operation to increase pressure on Hamas to accept a temporary ceasefire. Adding to this, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that the defence forces will take control of all of the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump announced on his Truth Social platform that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to start negotiations towards a ceasefire immediately after separate phone conversations with the leaders of both countries. Trump further said that the conditions of the bilateral talks will be negotiated between the two parties directly. There isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Tuesday, leaving the USD at the mercy of speeches by influential FOMC members. Apart from this, trade-related developments will play a key role in driving the broader risk sentiment and producing short-term trading opportunities around the XAU/USD pair. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.   Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj remains unchanged at -37 in May

Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (3.85%)

Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its decline for the third consecutive session, trading near $32.20 per troy ounce during Tuesday’s Asian session. The metal’s weakness comes as optimism over a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine reduces demand for safe-haven assets.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver price declined as optimism surrounding potential ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine dampened demand for safe-haven assets.President Trump announced that Ukraine and Russia are preparing to enter immediate ceasefire negotiations, possibly excluding US participation.Silver’s losses on Monday were partially offset by Moody’s decision to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating.Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its decline for the third consecutive session, trading near $32.20 per troy ounce during Tuesday’s Asian session. The metal’s weakness comes as optimism over a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine reduces demand for safe-haven assets.Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump stated on Monday that following a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine and Russia are set to begin immediate ceasefire negotiations, potentially without US involvement. This development has pressured precious metals, including Silver, which typically benefit from geopolitical uncertainty.Despite the downtrend, Silver's losses on Monday were somewhat cushioned after Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1" last Friday, citing rising debt levels and interest burdens significantly higher than those of similarly rated peers. This move follows similar downgrades by Fitch in 2023 and S&P in 2011.Recent US economic data—including softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) readings—indicate cooling inflation, bolstering expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Additionally, disappointing US Retail Sales figures have heightened concerns about sustained economic weakness, which could lend support to non-yielding assets like Silver.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now anticipate two Fed rate cuts this year, likely beginning in September. Investors will closely monitor upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials for further insight into the central bank’s policy direction and the broader economic outlook. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Gold price meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Tuesday and reverses the previous day's move higher on the back of the upbeat market mood.

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Even geopolitical risks do little to lend any support to the safe-haven precious metal.Gold price meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Tuesday and reverses the previous day's move higher on the back of the upbeat market mood. Despite a surprise downgrade of the US government's credit rating on Friday, investors continue to cheer the latest optimism over the US-China trade truce for 90 days. This is evident from a generally positive tone around the equity markets, which, in turn, is seen undermining demand for traditional safe-haven assets and exerting pressure on the bullion. Meanwhile, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs further amid signs of easing inflation and a sluggish economic outlook fail to assist the US Dollar (USD) to attract any meaningful buyers. This, however, does little to lend any support to the non-yielding Gold price. Even persistent geopolitical risks fail to inspire bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD is to the downside. However, the range-bound price action witnessed over the past week or so warrants caution.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls remain on the sidelines amid fading safe-haven demandMoody's downgraded America's top sovereign credit rating by one notch, to "Aa1" on Friday, citing concerns about the nation's growing debt pile. This, however, had a modest impact on the global risk sentiment amid rising trade optimism, which, in turn, failed to assist the safe-haven Gold price to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains. Traders increased their bets on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 following the release of weak US inflation figures and Retail Sales data last week. In fact, the current market pricing indicates higher odds of at least two Fed reductions in 2025. This keeps the US Dollar depressed near a one-week low touched on Monday.On a more hawkish note, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that inflation is not moving to target as fast as anticipated, and inflation expectations are moving in a troubling way. Bostic added that the number of rate cuts this year depends on how things turn out, and details of the tariffs will matter. Bostic leans toward only one rate cut this year.New York Fed President John Williams said that the recent economic data has been very good and that the labor market is pretty much in balance. Williams, however, warned that some forward-looking indicators are signaling concern. The key word for the economy is uncertainty, and the monetary policy is in a good place, Williams added further. Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson noted that the US could face a one-time increase in the price level from tariffs, but needs to be sure that it does not become a sustained increase in inflation. It is too early to tell how the labor market will be affected by trade policies, and the Fed will keep policy in place to be sure that inflation expectations remain anchored.Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that the ongoing uncertainty at the hands of the Trump administration's trade policies has put a significant dent in investor sentiment. Kashkari added that there will be lots of jobs in the future of the US economy and backed the Fed's wait-and-see approach until the tariff landscape settles out.On the geopolitical front, the Israeli military issued evacuation orders to people in Khan Yunis – the southern city of Gaza – as it launched a new operation to increase pressure on Hamas to accept a temporary ceasefire. Adding to this, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that the defence forces will take control of all of the Gaza Strip.Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump announced on his Truth Social platform that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to start negotiations towards a ceasefire immediately after separate phone conversations with the leaders of both countries. Trump further said that the conditions of the bilateral talks will be negotiated between the two parties directly.There isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Tuesday, leaving the USD at the mercy of speeches by influential FOMC members. Apart from this, trade-related developments will play a key role in driving the broader risk sentiment and producing short-term trading opportunities around the XAU/USD pair.Gold price could accelerate the downfall once the $3,200 pivotal support is broken decisivelyFrom a technical perspective, the overnight failure near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) support-turned-resistance on the 4-hour chart and the subsequent slide favors the XAU/USD bears. Moreover, negative oscillators on hourly/daily charts suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the downside. Some follow-through selling below the $3,200 mark and the $3,178-3,177 support zone will reaffirm the outlook, which should pave the way for a slide towards last week's swing low, around the $3,120 area, or the lower level since April 10. This is closely followed by the $3,100 mark, which, if broken decisively, might expose the next relevant support near the $3,060 region.On the flip side, the $3,250-3,252 area might continue to act as an immediate strong hurdle. A sustained strength beyond the said barrier could suggest that the Gold price has bottomed out and pave the way for additional gains beyond the $3,274-3,275 intermediate resistance, towards the $3,300 round figure. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which, if cleared, would shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

GBP/USD continues its upward momentum for the second consecutive session, hovering near 1.3360 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) is strengthening as the US Dollar (USD) softens in response to Moody’s Ratings downgrading the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1.

GBP/USD strengthened as the US Dollar struggled following Moody’s Rating downgrade of the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1.The Greenback struggles as inflation indicators like the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index suggest easing price pressures.Traders await Wednesday’s UK CPI report for clues about the Bank of England’s next policy moves.GBP/USD continues its upward momentum for the second consecutive session, hovering near 1.3360 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) is strengthening as the US Dollar (USD) softens in response to Moody’s Ratings downgrading the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1.This downgrade echoes similar actions by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011. Moody’s now anticipates that US federal debt will rise to approximately 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, while projecting the federal budget deficit to widen to nearly 9% of GDP. The downgrade reflects concerns over surging debt-servicing costs, growing entitlement spending, and declining tax revenues.Last week’s US economic data added to pressure on the greenback, with inflation indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) suggesting easing price pressures. These trends have boosted expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Additionally, weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales figures have intensified worries about prolonged economic sluggishness.Looking ahead, investors are turning their focus to the United Kingdom’s (UK) April CPI report, due Wednesday, for insight into the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy trajectory. The core CPI – which excludes food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco – is forecast to rise by 3.6% year-over-year, slightly above the previous reading of 3.4%.

The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens on Tuesday. Consumer inflation in India fell more than expected to a near six-year low in April, strengthening bets that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is due to extend its rate cutting cycle. This, in turn, undermines the Indian currency.

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Consumer inflation in India fell more than expected to a near six-year low in April, strengthening bets that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is due to extend its rate cutting cycle. This, in turn, undermines the Indian currency. Additionally, renewed concerns over the potential reintroduction of trade tariffs by the Trump administration could exert some selling pressure on the Asian peers, including the INR. Nonetheless, a decline in crude oil prices might help limit the local currency’s losses, as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer. Lower crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the INR value. A multi-phase trade deal between the US and India could also underpin the local currency.Investors will monitor the Fedspeak later on Tuesday. The following Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are set to speak, including Thomas Barkin, Alberto Musalem, Adriana Kugler, Raphael Bostic, Mary C. Daly and Beth M. Hammack. Indian Rupee remains weak amid trade deal discussionsIndia is discussing a US trade deal structured in three tranches and expects to reach an interim agreement before July, when Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are set to kick in, per Bloomberg.The interim deal would most likely cover areas including market access for industrial goods, some farm products, and addressing some non-tariff barriers, such as quality control requirements, the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private.ICRA on Monday forecast India's GDP growth at 6.9% in the quarter ended March 31, and at 6.3% for the full 2024-25 fiscal year, undershooting the National Statistics Office (NSO) estimates made in February.Moody’s lowered the US rating from 'Aaa' to ‘Aa1’, citing that successive US administrations had failed to reverse ballooning deficits and interest costs.USD/INR keeps the bearish vibe under the key EMAThe Indian Rupee trades on a softer note on the day. The bearish outlook of the USD/INR pair remains in place as the price remains capped below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Nonetheless, further consolidation or temporary recovery cannot be ruled out as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline.  The first downside target to watch for USD/INR is 85.00, the psychological level. If the price breaks below the mentioned level, the pair could revisit 84.61, the low of May 12, followed by 84.20, the lower limit of the trend channel.On the other hand, sustained trading above the 100-day EMA at 85.60 could open the door for a move toward the 86.00-86.05 zone, which marks both a round figure and the upper boundary of the trend channel.  Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.


NZD/USD edges lower during Tuesday’s Asian session, trading around 0.5920 after climbing over 0.50% in the previous session. The pair remained under pressure following the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) latest interest rate decision.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}NZD/USD holds losses after the People's Bank of China cut its one-year Loan Prime Rate to 3.00% from 3.10%.Traders evaluated mounting inflationary pressures in New Zealand following Q1 data.The US Dollar struggled following Moody’s Ratings downgrade of the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1.NZD/USD edges lower during Tuesday’s Asian session, trading around 0.5920 after climbing over 0.50% in the previous session. The pair remained under pressure following the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) latest interest rate decision.The PBoC announced a cut to its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs), with the one-year LPR reduced from 3.10% to 3.00%, and the five-year LPR lowered from 3.60% to 3.50%. Given the strong trade ties between New Zealand and China, such policy shifts in China tend to have a notable impact on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).Investors continued to digest mixed economic data out of China for April. While industrial production slowed, it still exceeded expectations. However, retail sales disappointed, rising less than forecast. Meanwhile, in New Zealand, traders assessed renewed inflationary pressures after Q1 data showed the sharpest increase in producer input and output prices in nearly three years.Market focus now shifts to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate decision due later in the day. The RBA is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, despite last week’s stronger-than-expected employment report.On the United States (US) front, the US Dollar (USD) weakened following Moody’s decision to downgrade the country’s credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. The move echoes previous downgrades by Fitch in 2023 and S&P in 2011. Moody’s now projects US federal debt to surge to 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the budget deficit expected to expand to nearly 9% of GDP. The downgrade reflects growing concerns over rising debt-servicing costs, expanding entitlement spending, and declining tax revenues. New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.03% -0.00% 0.00% 0.09% 0.20% 0.19% -0.02% EUR -0.03% -0.02% -0.03% 0.07% 0.18% 0.16% -0.05% GBP 0.00% 0.02% -0.02% 0.08% 0.18% 0.20% 0.01% JPY 0.00% 0.03% 0.02% 0.08% 0.19% 0.17% 0.02% CAD -0.09% -0.07% -0.08% -0.08% 0.11% 0.09% -0.08% AUD -0.20% -0.18% -0.18% -0.19% -0.11% -0.01% -0.19% NZD -0.19% -0.16% -0.20% -0.17% -0.09% 0.01% -0.17% CHF 0.02% 0.05% -0.01% -0.02% 0.08% 0.19% 0.17% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

The Japanese (JPY) weakens across the board on Tuesday, assisting the USD/JPY pair to reverse the previous day's slide to over a one-week low and climb back to mid-145.00s during the Asian session.

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Dovish Fed expectations keep the USD bulls on the defensive and cap gains for the USD/JPY pair.The Japanese (JPY) weakens across the board on Tuesday, assisting the USD/JPY pair to reverse the previous day's slide to over a one-week low and climb back to mid-145.00s during the Asian session. A surprise downgrade of the US government's credit rating on Friday appeared to have a modest impact on the global risk sentiment. This is evident from a generally positive tone around the equity markets, which is seen as a key factor undermining demand for the safe-haven JPY. Any meaningful JPY downfall, however, seems elusive in the wake of the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again in 2025. In contrast, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to lower borrowing costs further amid signs of easing inflationary pressures and a sluggish growth outlook. This, in turn, might keep a lid on any attempted US Dollar (USD) move higher and act as a tailwind for the lower-yielding JPY, which, in turn, should cap the USD/JPY pair. Japanese Yen bulls turn cautious amid the upbeat market mood; downside potential seems limitedInvestors looked past Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating to “Aa1” from “Aaa” on Friday amid rising trade optimism, which, in turn, prompts fresh selling around the safe-haven Japanese Yen during the Asian session on Tuesday. The US and China agreed to significantly lower tariffs and initiated a 90-day pause to finalize a broader deal, which marked the de-escalation of a disruptive standoff between the world's two largest economies and boosted the global risk sentiment. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Monday that Japan's underlying inflation is likely to re-accelerate after a period of slowdown and that the central bank will keep raising interest rates if the economy, prices improve as projected.Moreover, the BoJ's Summary of Opinions from the last meeting revealed that policymakers haven't given up on hiking interest rates further, and some board members saw scope to resume rate hikes if developments over US tariffs stabilise. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) released last week pointed to signs of easing inflation, while the disappointing US monthly Retail Sales data increased the likelihood of several quarters of sluggish growth. Two Fed officials –New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic – suggested on Monday that policymakers may not lower interest rates before September on the back of a murky economic outlook.Moreover, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson also backed a wait-and-see approach and warned against temporary price increases becoming sustained inflation. Investors, however, are still pricing in two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the year-end. Trump announced on his Truth Social platform that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to start negotiations towards a ceasefire immediately and stressed that the conditions of the bilateral talks will be negotiated between the two parties directly.The Israeli military announced that it had begun extensive ground operations in an expanded offensive against Hamas and issued evacuation orders to people in the southern city of Khan Yunis – the second-largest city in Gaza.This keeps geopolitical risks in play and should limit any meaningful JPY depreciation, warranting caution before placing fresh bullish bets around the USD/JPY pair and confirming that a one-week-old downtrend has run its course. USD/JPY is likely to attract fresh sellers at higher levels and remain capped near the 146.00 markFrom a technical perspective, acceptance below the 38.2% Fibonacci (Fibo.) retracement level of the April-May upward move and negative oscillators on hourly charts favor the USD/JPY bears. Hence, any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped ahead of the 146.00 round figure. A sustained strength beyond the latter, however, might trigger a short-covering move and lift spot prices to the 146.60 area, or the 23.6% Fibo. level, en route to the 147.00 mark.On the flip side, the 144.65 area, or over a one-week low touched on Monday, now seems to protect the immediate downside. This is closely followed by the 144.30-144.25 confluence, comprising the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 50% retracement level. A convincing break below will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag the USD/JPY pair below the 144.00 mark, towards the next relevant support near the 143.75-143.70 region. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is losing further ground across its major rivals, undermined by the latest political turmoil in Australia. However, traders remain cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy announcement due later at 4.30 GMT.

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However, traders remain cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy announcement due later at 4.30 GMT.Australia’s opposition coalition split as the National Paty withdrew its support.National Party leader David Littleproud said that they are “ending the coalition with the Liberal Party.”“The National Party will sit alone on a principled basis,” he added.The ruling Labor Party returned with an enhanced and sweeping mandate as the Opposition collapsed.At the time of writing, AUD/UD is down 0.23% on the day, trade near 0.6440. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) dips against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, following a gain of over 0.50% in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure after the People's Bank of China (PBoC) announced its Interest Rate Decision.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar holds losses after People's Bank of China cut its one-year Loan Prime Rate to 3.00% from 3.10%.The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday.The US Dollar weakened following Moody’s Ratings downgrade of the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1.The Australian Dollar (AUD) dips against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, following a gain of over 0.50% in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure after the People's Bank of China (PBoC) announced its Interest Rate Decision. The PBoC announced a reduction in its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) on Tuesday. The one-year LPR was lowered from 3.10% to 3.00%, while the five-year LPR was reduced from 3.60% to 3.50%. Given the close trade relationship between Australia and China, any change in the Chinese markets can significantly impact the Aussie Dollar.Market attention now turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) upcoming rate decision scheduled for later in the day. The central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, following last week's stronger-than-anticipated employment data.The AUD/USD pair strengthened on Monday as the US Dollar weakened in the wake of Moody’s Ratings downgrading the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. This move aligns with similar downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011. Moody’s now projects US federal debt to climb to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the budget deficit expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP. This deterioration is attributed to rising debt-servicing costs, expanding entitlement programs, and falling tax revenues.In addition, the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar gained support from renewed optimism surrounding a 90-day US-China trade truce and hopes for further trade deals with other countries. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN on Sunday that President Donald Trump intends to implement tariffs at previously threatened levels on trading partners that do not engage in negotiations “in good faith.”Australian Dollar depreciates despite a weaker US Dollar amid a dovish FedThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is remaining subdued and trading lower at around 100.40 at the time of writing.Economic data released last week pointed to easing inflation, as both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) signaled a deceleration in price pressures. This has heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement additional rate cuts in 2025, contributing to further weakness in the US Dollar. Additionally, disappointing US Retail Sales figures have deepened concerns over an extended period of sluggish economic growth.US President Donald Trump told Fox News that he is working to gain greater access to China, describing the relationship as excellent and expressing willingness to negotiate directly with President Xi on a potential deal.Trump administration plans to add several Chinese chipmakers to its export blacklist, known as the "entity list." According to the Financial Times, Trump administration officials expressed concern late Thursday that imposing export controls on key Chinese firms at this stage could undermine the recently reached trade agreement between China and the US during talks in Geneva over the weekend.The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Monday that China’s Retail Sales rose by 5.1% year-over-year (YoY) in April, falling short of the 5.5% forecast and down from 5.9% in March. Industrial Production grew by 6.1% YoY during the same period, beating the expected 5.5% but slowing from the previous 7.7% growth.According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), employment surged by 89,000 in April, significantly higher than the 36,400 increase in March and far above the forecasted 20,000. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.1%.Australia's seasonally adjusted Wage Price Index rose by 3.4% year-over-year in Q1 2025, up from a 3.2% increase in Q1 2024 and surpassing market forecasts of a 3.2% gain. This marks a recovery from the prior quarter, which recorded the slowest wage growth since Q3 2022. On a quarterly basis, the index climbed 0.9% in Q1, surpassing the projected 0.8% rise.Australian Dollar hovers around 0.6450, support appears at nine-day EMAAUD/USD is trading near 0.6450 on Tuesday, with technical indicators on the daily chart pointing to a bullish bias. The pair remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the 50 mark, suggesting continued upward momentum.On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the six-month high of 0.6515, posted on December 2, 2024. A sustained break above this level could open the door to the seven-month high of 0.6687 from November 2024.Support is initially seen at the nine-day EMA of 0.6429, followed by the 50-day EMA around 0.6363. A clear drop below these levels would likely weaken the short- to medium-term outlook, potentially triggering a deeper decline toward the March 2020 low of 0.5914.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.05% 0.02% 0.03% 0.10% 0.24% 0.18% -0.03% EUR -0.05% -0.02% -0.02% 0.06% 0.20% 0.14% -0.08% GBP -0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.08% 0.19% 0.18% -0.02% JPY -0.03% 0.02% -0.02% 0.06% 0.19% 0.13% -0.02% CAD -0.10% -0.06% -0.08% -0.06% 0.13% 0.07% -0.10% AUD -0.24% -0.20% -0.19% -0.19% -0.13% -0.06% -0.24% NZD -0.18% -0.14% -0.18% -0.13% -0.07% 0.06% -0.18% CHF 0.03% 0.08% 0.02% 0.02% 0.10% 0.24% 0.18% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator PBoC Interest Rate Decision The People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) holds scheduled meetings on a quarterly basis. However, China’s benchmark interest rate – the loan prime rate (LPR), a pricing reference for bank lending – is fixed every month. If the PBoC forecasts high inflation (hawkish) it raises interest rates, which is bullish for the Renminbi (CNY). Likewise, if the PBoC sees inflation in the Chinese economy falling (dovish) and cuts or keeps interest rates unchanged, it is bearish for CNY. Still, China’s currency doesn’t have a floating exchange rate determined by markets and its value against the US Dollar is fixed mainly by the PBoC on a daily basis. Read more. Last release: Tue May 20, 2025 01:15 Frequency: Irregular Actual: 3% Consensus: 3% Previous: 3.1% Source: The People's Bank of China

Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said on Tuesday that he expects any talks with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week to be based on this understanding of foreign exchange.

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Expect to discuss various topics, including FX, if I were to meet Bessent on sidelines of G7 gathering.
Will scrutinise the impact of U.S. fiscal, monetary policy on Japan’s economy, when asked about Moody’s downgrade of US debt rating.
In previous bilateral meeting with Bessent, two sides confirmed FX rates should be set by markets and that excess volatility in FX market has adverse impact on economy.
Expect any talks with Bessent this week to be based on this understanding of FX.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.08% lower on the day to trade at 144.75. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced a cut in its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) on Tuesday. The one-year LPR was cut from 3.1% to 3.00%, while the five-year LPR was cut from 3.60% to  3.50%. 

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced a cut in its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) on Tuesday. The one-year LPR was cut from 3.1% to 3.00%, while the five-year LPR was cut from 3.60% to  3.50%. Market reactionAt the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.15% lower on the day to trade at 0.6448. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

The Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to around $3,230 during the early Asian session on Tuesday, pressured by a modest US Dollar (USD) rebound. However, the concerns over the US economic health after Moody's downgrades the US national credit rating might cap its downside. 

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However, the concerns over the US economic health after Moody's downgrades the US national credit rating might cap its downside. The Greenback recovers on Tuesday, capping the upside for the USD-denominated commodity price. Nonetheless, the economic uncertainties could boost the safe-haven flows. Moody's cut the US rating to "Aa1" from "Aaa" on Friday, citing rising debt and interest "that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns”. The economic uncertainties provide some support to the safe asset like Gold. "Overall, over the next few months, I think gold is a good safe bet considering the downgrade on the United States. It's still to me a buy-and-hold market," said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.Financial markets were also shaken when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that US President Donald Trump would slap tariffs at the rate he threatened on April 2 if trade partners do not engage in "good faith." Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1931 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1916 and 7.2112 Reuters estimate.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1931 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1916 and 7.2112 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

China PBoC Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (3%)

China on Monday accused the US of undermining the two countries’ preliminary trade agreement after the US issued an industry warning against using Chinese chips that singled out Huawei, per CNBC. 

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West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $62.10 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price edges higher on signs of a breakdown in US negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, while Moody's downgrades the US national credit rating.

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The WTI price edges higher on signs of a breakdown in US negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, while Moody's downgrades the US national credit rating.Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takhtravanchi said on Monday that nuclear talks between Iran and the US "will lead nowhere" if Washington insists that Tehran drop its uranium enrichment activity to zero. On Sunday, US special envoy Steve Witkoff emphasized that any new deal between the US and Iran must include an agreement to refrain from enrichment, which might lead to the development of nuclear weapons. Iran said that its nuclear energy program has entirely peaceful purposes. Stalled nuclear talks between the US and Iran supported the WTI price.  On the other hand, Moody’s lowered the US rating from 'AAA' to ‘AA1,’ citing that successive US administrations had failed to reverse ballooning deficits and interest costs. This raised questions about the economic health of the world's largest oil-consuming nation, which might exert some selling pressure on the black gold. Additionally, slowing retail sales in China, the top oil importer, might contribute to the WTI’s downside. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday that the country’s Retail Sales rose 5.1% year-over-year in April versus 5.5% expected and 5.9% in March.   WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

EUR/USD tested into the high end on Monday, drifting briefly toward the 1.1300 handle before settling back slightly, although the pair still ended the day higher overall. However, Fiber remains trapped in a near-term consolidation zone.

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Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The USD/CAD pair softens to near 1.3950 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Greenback edges lower against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on a surprise downgrade of the US government's credit rating late on Friday and renewed trade tensions.

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The Greenback edges lower against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on a surprise downgrade of the US government's credit rating late on Friday and renewed trade tensions. Traders will keep an eye on the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which is due later on Tuesday.Moody’s downgrade of America’s sovereign rating to ‘AA1’ from ‘AAA,’ along with rising expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon start cutting rates amid cooling US inflation, have eroded the US Dollar’s (USD) appeal.  The downgrade underscores growing concerns over fiscal deterioration and tariff-induced distortions under US President Donald Trump. Fed officials maintain caution and call for more clarity before committing to policy changes, which caps the upside for the USD. The markets are now pricing in a nearly 91.6% odds of rates holding at 4.25%–4.50% in the June meeting and a 65.1% chance of no change in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, a decline in Crude Oil prices could undermine the commodity-linked Loonie. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value. Nonetheless, dovish expectations for the Bank of Canada (BoC) after lackluster April job gains and a rise in unemployment might weigh on the CAD and create the pair’s downside. Capital Economics analysts said that US tariffs are finally weakening the Canadian economy, increasing the likelihood of BoC rate reductions at an aggressive pace. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

US President Donald Trump added further comments on Monday to his earlier statements about impending Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks.

US President Donald Trump added further comments on Monday to his earlier statements about impending Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks.Key highlightsUS not stepping back from Russia-Ukraine talks.

Russia-Ukraine talks at Vatican would be beneficial.

Let us get this thing going.

I am just here to try and help.

If something does not occur, I will back away.

This is a European situation.

Spoke for a while with European leaders today.

Europe facing a significant issue.

If I thought Putin lacked desire, I would withdraw.

I have a red line but I won't comment on it.

Sanctions on Russia could exacerbate the situation.

Possible time for sanctions to occur.

Zelenskyy challenging to work with.

GBP/USD rose at the outset of the new trading week, briefly testing the 1.3400 handle for the second time in two weeks. Despite an early bullish push in cable bids, buyers couldn’t lock in a fresh high, and price action trimmed back to a more sedate 1.3350.

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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.85% from 4.1% after concluding its May monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. The decision will be announced at 04:30 GMT.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to cut the interest rate by 25 bps to 3.85% in May.Australian central bank Governor Michele Bullock’s comments and updated projections will hold the key.The RBA policy announcements would spike up volatility, rocking the Australian Dollar.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.85% from 4.1% after concluding its May monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. The decision will be announced at 04:30 GMT.The updated economic forecast will be published alongside the policy statement, while RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference will follow at 05:30 GMT.With the rate reduction already priced in, traders will closely scrutinise the central bank’s updated economic projections and Governor Bullock’s comments for the next direction on interest rates and the Australian Dollar (AUD).Focus on RBA’s next interest rate moveThe recent series of Australian economic data releases have pushed back against markets’ pricing of more interest rate cuts by the RBA this year.The Australian economy added 89K new jobs in April, beating estimates of a 20K addition by a wide margin, while March's reading was revised to show the addition of 36.4K jobs instead of 32.2K previously reported. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.1% in April.Meanwhile, Australia’s first-quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% compared to the same period last year, coming in higher than the market expectations of a 2.2% increase, and unchanged from the 2.4% rise in the previous quarter.Trimmed Mean CPI, the RBA’s closely-watched inflation gauge, rose 0.7% on a quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and 2.9% on an annual basis. The RBA has an inflation target range of 2%-3%.The Wage Price Index advanced 3.4% annually in the first quarter, exceeding the estimate and the prior reading of 3.2%. On a quarterly basis, wages increased by 0.9%, surpassing the 0.8% forecast.The nation’s labor market remains strong while the underlying inflation is elevated, which could prompt the RBA to signal prudence on the policy outlook.Besides, the revisions to the inflation and growth outlook will also help gauge the RBA’s path forward on interest rates.Previewing the RBA policy decision, TD Securities (TDS) analysts said: “Overnight indexed swaps (OIS) markets have also fully priced in a 25 bps cut. Of interest will be the RBA's assessment of the risks around tariffs. We see risks of minor downgrades to GDP, but doubt that CPI will shift materially.”How will the Reserve Bank of Australia decision impact AUD/USD?RBA Governor Michele Bullock is expected to caution about the economic and inflation outlook, particularly in light of the US tariffs. Therefore, she could reiterate, “have to be careful not to get ahead of ourselves on policy.” Bullock’s cautious remarks could revive the momentum of the AUD/USD recovery.If Bullock raises concerns about the economic outlook while hinting at further rate cuts, the Aussie is likely to come under intense selling pressure, resuming its downside toward the 0.6300 level.Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, highlights key technical indicators for trading AUD/USD following the policy announcement.“AUD/USD remains confined in a range between the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 50-day SMA heading into the RBA showdown. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the midline, currently near 53, keeping the bullish potential intact.” “A dovish cut by the RBA could send AUD/USD lower toward the 50-day SMA of 0.6333, below which the 100-day SMA at 0.6299 could be tested. If the selling pressure intensifies, the 0.6250 psychological level will be the line in the sand for buyers. Conversely, buyers need acceptance above the 200-day SMA at 0.6452 to resume the recovery toward the November 25 high of 0.6550, followed by the 0.6600 threshold,” Dhwani adds. Economic Indicator RBA Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD. Read more. Next release: Tue May 20, 2025 04:30 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 3.85% Previous: 4.1% Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

The AUD/JPY rallied on Monday, gaining over 0.30% as traders brace for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision. Nevertheless, news that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) might reduce rates and improve risk appetite, as the central bank takes measures to propel China’s economy.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/JPY forms bullish engulfing pattern after clearing Ichimoku Cloud, signaling further upside potential.Key resistance seen at Tenkan-sen (93.95), followed by 94.36 and May’s cycle high at 95.63.A drop below 92.73 could expose 92.63 support, with deeper downside toward the Kumo top near 91.65.The AUD/JPY rallied on Monday, gaining over 0.30% as traders brace for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision. Nevertheless, news that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) might reduce rates and improve risk appetite, as the central bank takes measures to propel China’s economy. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 93.58.AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe AUD/JPY has consolidated during the last two trading days after edging above the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), triggering a bullish signal. A ‘bullish engulfing’ candle chart pattern formed, opening the door for further upside, but buyers need a decisive break above the Tenkan-sen at 93.95.In that outcome, AUD/JPY next resistance would be 94.00, followed by the May 15 daily high of 94.36. Once cleared the next stop would be the latest cycle high of May 13 at 95.63.Conversely, if AUD/JPY tumbles below the May 16 swing low of 92.73, bears could send the pair drifting towards the Kijun-sen at 92.63, ahead of the top of the Kumo at 91.65/80.AUD/JPY Price Chart – Daily Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

The AUD/NZD pair is trading near the 1.09 zone on Monday, reflecting a cautiously bullish tone as the market approaches the Asian session.

AUD/NZD trades near the 1.09 zone on Monday, reflecting minor gains.The cross maintains a bullish tone despite mixed short-term signals.Key support is clustered below 1.0880, with resistance near 1.0910.The AUD/NZD pair is trading near the 1.09 zone on Monday, reflecting a cautiously bullish tone as the market approaches the Asian session. Despite the broader uptrend, the pair remains within a tight daily range, suggesting that traders are adopting a wait-and-see approach amid mixed technical signals. The overall sentiment leans positive, but shorter-term indicators highlight potential headwinds in the coming sessions.The daily technical setup shows a generally supportive environment for the pair. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the 50s, indicating neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which captures trend-following momentum, signals a clear buy bias. This is supported by the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which aligns with the broader bullish trend. However, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain in sell territory, suggesting that the broader outlook still faces structural resistance.Other momentum indicators present a more mixed picture. The Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28) trades in the 60s, reflecting largely neutral conditions, while the Bull Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator both hover around zero, highlighting the ongoing struggle between buyers and sellers. This neutral tone is mirrored by the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 10-day SMA, both aligning with the near-term buy sentiment but lacking strong follow-through signals.Shifting to the 4-hour timeframe, the outlook becomes more cautious. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI), Commodity Channel Index (CCI), and Stochastic RSI all point to neutral momentum, reinforcing the potential for near-term consolidation. Meanwhile, the 4-hour 10 and 20-day EMAs and SMAs indicate selling, suggesting that shorter-term momentum is at odds with the broader daily uptrend, potentially limiting immediate upside.For now, immediate support is found around 1.0872, with additional levels at 1.0868 and 1.0867. On the upside, resistance is likely to emerge around 1.0906, followed closely by 1.0922 and 1.0944, potentially capping further gains as the pair attempts to break through the upper end of its recent range. Broader Fibonacci levels place deeper support in the 1.0400 to 1.0700 range, while resistance extends toward 1.1000, 1.1100, and 1.1200, providing a wider context for potential breakout scenarios.Daily Chart

Silver price registers modest gains of 0.20% on Monday as US Treasury bond yields edge lower and the US dollar loses ground, as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The XAG/USD trades at $32.33 after bouncing off daily lows of $32.24.

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The XAG/USD trades at $32.33 after bouncing off daily lows of $32.24.The DXY, which tracks the dollar’s performance against a basket of currencies, drops 0.60% to 100.36. Moody’s downgrade to US government debt from AAA negative to AA1 stable triggered a US Dollar sell-off, even though US Treasury Secretary Bessent disregarded the news.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookConsolidation is the name of the game for Silver prices, with neither buyers nor sellers able to clear the top and bottom of the $31.50-$33.00 range.For buyers to regain control they must clear the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.73. If surpassed, the next stop would be $33.00, followed by the next cycle high at $33.29, the May 13 peak.On the downside, the 100-day SMA at $31.91 is the first support level after the strong bounce on May 15.XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.  

The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6450 on Monday, extending its recovery from recent lows as the US Dollar (USD) faces renewed selling pressure following Moody's decision to downgrade the United States' long-term sovereign rating from AAA to AA1.

AUD/USD trades near 0.6450 as sentiment turns against the Greenback.Moody's downgraded US credit rating to 'AA1' from 'AAA', citing mounting fiscal risks.Technical levels point to resistance around 0.6500 and support near 0.6400.The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6450 on Monday, extending its recovery from recent lows as the US Dollar (USD) faces renewed selling pressure following Moody's decision to downgrade the United States' long-term sovereign rating from AAA to AA1. The downgrade, which cited mounting fiscal challenges and a $36 trillion debt load, has weighed heavily on the Greenback, pushing the US Dollar Index (DXY) toward the key 100.00 support zone. The US Dollar remains under pressure after Moody's announced its downgrade late last week, highlighting concerns over the sustainability of US fiscal policy. Despite assigning a "Stable" outlook, the move has sparked renewed selling in the Greenback, with the DXY hovering near 100.30 as markets digest the implications for the broader US economy. This comes as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continue to signal a cautious stance on interest rates, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty.Adding to the mix, President Donald Trump claimed a "moderate success" in managing the Russia-Ukraine conflict, suggesting progress toward a potential ceasefire. However, this has done little to offset the broader risk aversion triggered by the US credit rating cut. Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams have both highlighted the uncertain economic outlook, suggesting that further monetary easing may be limited in the near term.Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to announce its latest interest rate decision on Tuesday, with a consensus expectation for a 25 basis point cut from 4.10% to 3.85%. While this would typically weigh on the Australian Dollar, recent upbeat labor market data and improving trade sentiment between the US and China have tempered expectations for aggressive RBA easing.Technical AnalysisFrom a technical standpoint, AUD/USD is approaching a key resistance level near 0.6500, which has capped the pair's upside multiple times in May. A sustained break above this psychological barrier could open the door to further gains toward 0.6600, a level not seen since November.The pair remains supported by the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6402, reinforcing the bullish short-term bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.69 shows modest upward momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to hover in positive territory, although momentum is flattening.On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6400, marked by the 21-day EMA, followed by a stronger floor at 0.6350. The near-term bias remains cautiously bullish as long as the pair holds above the 0.6400 support zone.With the US Dollar struggling to recover from the Moody's downgrade, AUD/USD appears poised for further upside, particularly if the RBA takes a more cautious approach to rate cuts. However, traders should remain cautious as the pair approaches the critical 0.6500 resistance, with a failure to break this level potentially triggering a deeper pullback.Daily Chart

The NZD/JPY pair is trading near the 85.90 zone on Monday, reflecting minor gains as the market approaches the Asian session. Despite the recent upside, the broader technical picture remains mixed, with conflicting signals across both short-term and long-term indicators, keeping traders cautious.

NZD/JPY trades near the 85.90 zone with minor gains on Monday.The cross maintains a cautiously bullish outlook despite mixed technical signals.Key support is clustered below 85.80, with resistance near 86.00.The NZD/JPY pair is trading near the 85.90 zone on Monday, reflecting minor gains as the market approaches the Asian session. Despite the recent upside, the broader technical picture remains mixed, with conflicting signals across both short-term and long-term indicators, keeping traders cautious.The daily technical outlook presents a complex mix of signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the 50s, suggesting neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates sell pressure, potentially limiting further gains. However, the Bull Bear Power indicator favors buying, reflecting the pair’s recent strength, while the Awesome Oscillator hovers around the 1 area, indicating largely neutral momentum. Meanwhile, the Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) in the 40s further supports this neutral stance, underscoring the lack of a clear short-term trend.Moving averages paint a similarly mixed picture. Shorter-term averages, including the 20-day and 30-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), all in the 80s, support a buy signal, aligning with the pair’s recent bullish tone. In contrast, the longer-term 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain bearish, highlighting the ongoing divergence between short-term and long-term trends.Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, the technical outlook turns slightly more positive. The 4-hour MACD Level (12, 26) signals buy momentum, reflecting the pair’s recent gains, while the 4-hour Stochastic RSI Fast (3, 3, 14, 14) and the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) remain neutral, suggesting the potential for continued upside in the near term. The 4-hour 10-period EMAs and SMAs also support buying, though the 20-period EMA presents a contrasting sell signal, highlighting the risk of near-term pullbacks despite the broader bullish tone.For now, immediate support is seen around 85.83, with additional levels at 85.76 and 85.71. On the upside, resistance is likely to emerge around 85.99, followed closely by 86.03 and 86.12, potentially capping further gains as the pair attempts to break through the upper end of its recent range.Daily Chart
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