ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

23:58 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds above $33.00 in holiday-thinned trade
Silver price finished Monday’s session with minimal gains as the Greenback’s sell-off extended for the beginning of the week, even though financial markets in the US and the UK remained closed for holidays. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $33.47.

23:36 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Steady near three-week low, traders eye 0.8200 break
USD/CHF clings to minimal gains of 0.03% on Monday amid the lack of trading activity due to US markets being closed for the Memorial Day holiday. However, on Sunday, US President Trump's comments boosted the Greenback after he postponed tariffs on the European Union.

22:14 EUR/USD hits 4-week peak as Trump delays tariffs on EU
EUR/USD begins the week on the front foot but trims some of its earlier gains after hitting a four-week high of 1.1420, sponsored by US President Donald Trump's reversal on his decision to enact tariffs on the European Union (EU) on June 1.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD trims gains after reaching 1.1420 on tariff relief; holiday-thinned markets keep the Dollar under pressure.Trump postpones 50% EU tariff threat to July 9, easing near-term trade tensions.ECB’s Lagarde hints Euro could rival Dollar if bloc strengthens its financial unity.Fed’s Kashkari flags stagflation risks from tariffs; September policy path remains uncertain.EUR/USD begins the week on the front foot but trims some of its earlier gains after hitting a four-week high of 1.1420, sponsored by US President Donald Trump's reversal on his decision to enact tariffs on the European Union (EU) on June 1. At the time of writing, the major currency trades at 1.1380, up 0.20%.Last week, late Friday, Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on EU goods on June 1, as negotiations with the bloc are not advancing as expected. This triggered a leg-up in EUR/USD, ending at a two-day high of 1.1375. Nevertheless, a call between EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Trump on Sunday bought some time for both parties to reach an agreement with a deadline of July 9.The Greenback’s decline has favored the Euro, which, according to European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, could become a viable alternative to the US Dollar (USD) as the world’s reserve currency. However, she stated this could happen if governments strengthened the bloc's financial and security architecture.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the American currency against six other currencies, is down 0.10%. Still, it remains steady at 99.00 due to subdued trading conditions in observance of a US Memorial Day holiday.Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari said uncertainty is top of mind for the Fed and US businesses. He said the September meeting is open for “anything,” adding that the US central bank is in wait-and-see mode. He added that the shock of tariffs is stagflationary. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.14% -0.27% 0.19% 0.03% 0.10% -0.22% -0.03% EUR 0.14% -0.12% 0.36% 0.17% 0.24% -0.08% 0.12% GBP 0.27% 0.12% 0.15% 0.29% 0.36% 0.04% 0.26% JPY -0.19% -0.36% -0.15% -0.15% -0.09% -0.46% -0.21% CAD -0.03% -0.17% -0.29% 0.15% 0.08% -0.25% -0.03% AUD -0.10% -0.24% -0.36% 0.09% -0.08% -0.36% -0.10% NZD 0.22% 0.08% -0.04% 0.46% 0.25% 0.36% 0.22% CHF 0.03% -0.12% -0.26% 0.21% 0.03% 0.10% -0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). EUR/USD daily market movers: Underpinned by large US fiscal deficit, strong EU dataRecent data in the EU supports further upside on the EUR/USD pair as Germany’s economy grew faster than expected. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1 2025 was 0.4% up from 0.2%.The Greenback remains on the back foot, weighed down by the approval of Trump’s tax bill in the House of Representatives, which is on its way to the Senate. If passed, the proposal would add close to $4 trillion to the US debt ceiling over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).EUR/USD would remain driven by economic data. The EU’s economic schedule will feature Germany’s Gfk Consumer Confidence, employment and Retail Sales data in the EU. Inflation will be reported in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the EU.The US economic docket will feature April Durable Goods Orders, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, the second estimate for Q1 2025 GDP and the release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric.The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower interest rates at the upcoming meeting. On Friday, ECB’s Rehn and Stournaras backed a rate cut in June, with the latter supporting a pause after that meeting.Source: Prime Market TerminalEUR/USD technical outlook: Set to challenge 1.1400 in the near termEUR/USD remains upward biased despite forming an ‘inverted hammer,’ which indicates that sellers are outpacing buyers due to the large upper shadow in today’s price action. However, further confirmation is needed, and the pair must drop below 1.1300 for sellers if they want to test lower prices.The next key support level would be the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1270, followed by the 1.1200 mark.On the upside, if EUR/USD stays above 1.1375, the next resistance would be the May 26 high of 1.1418, followed by 1.1450 and 1.1500. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

22:06 AUD/USD pauses after reaching a six-month high
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is consolidating within a narrow range against the US Dollar (USD) after reaching a six-month high early Monday. However, the pair retreated from the highs ahead of Tuesday’s key economic data.

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AUD/USD pair reaches 0.6537 at the start of the week’s session, a level last seen on November 25, 2024.AUD/USD braces for volatility with US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence Data.AUD/USD retreats from six-month high but remains steady with resistance firming at 0.6500.The Australian Dollar (AUD) is consolidating within a narrow range against the US Dollar (USD) after reaching a six-month high early Monday. However, the pair retreated from the highs ahead of Tuesday’s key economic data.Recent broad-based weakness in the US Dollar has supported demand for risk-sensitive currencies, allowing AUD/USD to build on its monthly gains. The pair remains resilient, hovering just below the key psychological resistance level at 0.6500.At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading near 0.6488, after briefly reaching a six-month high of 0.6537 during the early hours of Monday’s session.AUD/USD rally stalls as markets await US data and trade updatesOver the past two months, the Australian Dollar (AUD) has staged an impressive recovery against the US Dollar (USD), rebounding from a low of 0.5914 on April 9 to test a six-month high of 0.6537 earlier on Monday. The rally has been driven in part by sustained USD weakness and improving sentiment toward risk-sensitive currencies.Despite the bullish momentum, AUD/USD struggled to gain a firm foothold above the psychological 0.6500 level, with thin trading conditions prevailing as US markets remained closed for Memorial Day. The announcement of a temporary delay in US tariffs on European imports also offered modest support for the Greenback, easing some immediate concerns around escalating trade tensions.As AUD/USD braces for the return of US market liquidity, attention now shifts to high-impact economic data and fresh trade developments. AUD/USD awaits Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence dataOn Tuesday, the spotlight turns to the US Census Bureau’s Durable Goods Orders report for April. This indicator tracks new orders placed with US manufacturers for long-lasting goods and offers a gauge of industrial activity. Following a robust 9.2% increase in March, markets are bracing for a sharp reversal, with forecasts pointing to an 8% contraction, reflecting potential fallout from trade-related disruptions.Later in the day, at 14:00 GMT, the Conference Board will publish its Consumer Confidence Index for May. After plunging to a post-pandemic low of 86.0 in April, the upcoming print will provide further insight into US households' economic outlook amid mounting fiscal and geopolitical uncertainties.These data releases will set the tone for the AUD/USD in the short term, particularly ahead of Wednesday’s release of Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April. Markets expect the annual inflation rate to ease slightly to 2.3% from 2.4%, reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may remain on hold in the near term.With monetary policy divergence continuing to influence market positioning, traders will be closely watching for signs of shifting sentiment as economic data, inflation readings, and trade headlines dictate direction. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

21:53 Forex Today: Consumer confidence gauges take centre stage
As market players digested news that President Trump backpedalled on his threats of levying 50% taxes on European products, the US Dollar (USD) stayed on the defensive in quite a poor start to the new trading week.

As market players digested news that President Trump backpedalled on his threats of levying 50% taxes on European products, the US Dollar (USD) stayed on the defensive in quite a poor start to the new trading week.Here’s what to watch on Tuesday, May 27:The US Dollar Index (DXY) briefly eased to five-week lows on Monday, slipping back below the 99.00 support on the back of the erratic trade policy by the White House. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence print will be in the spotlight, seconded by Durable Goods Orders, the FHFA’s House Price Index, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index. In addition, the Fed’s Kashkari is due to speak.EUR/USD flirted with multi-week highs north of 1.1400 the figure against the backdrop of renewed optimism on the trade front. Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence will be published alongside the EMU’s Economic Sentiment, the final print of the Consumer Confidence, and the Consumer Inflation Expectations survey.Extra strength sent GBP/USD to more than three-year highs just pips away from the 1.3600 barrier amid further weakness hurting the Greenback. The CBI Distributive Trades survey will be the only data release across the Channel.Following new monthly lows near 142.20, USD/JPY managed to regain some composure and end the day with modest gains, reversing part of the multi-day leg lower. Next on tap on the Japanese docket will be the weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures and May’s Consumer Confidence, all due on May 29.AUD/USD rose to levels last seen in late November 2024, beyond the key 0.6500 hurdle on Monday, although it receded a tad afterwards. The RBA’s Monthly CPI Indicator and Construction Work Done are next in Oz on May 28.WTI resumed its decline on Monday, approaching the $61.00 mark per barrel despite the improved sentiment on the trade front after President Trump’s pivot regarding tariffs on the EU.In reaction to reports that President Trump has extended the deadline for trade talks with the EU, the price of Gold pulled back from Friday's marked advance and traded near the $3,320 area per troy ounce. Similarly, Silver prices have gotten off to a slow start this week, with selling pressure building near the $33.00 mark per ounce.

21:46 GBP/USD eases from multi-year high amid thin trading, BoE speeches eyed
The British Pound (GBP) is trading sideways against the US Dollar (USD) after reaching its highest level in three years at the start of this week’s session. The GBP/USD pair surged to 1.3593 early in Monday’s session.

20:23 EUR/GBP remains conflicted ahead of Eurozone sentiment data
The Euro (EUR) remains conflicted against its British Pound (GBP) counterpart on Monday, struggling to build sustained momentum despite an early attempt to recover last week’s losses.

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However, the pair remains capped below the 0.8400 mark at the time of writing, as the British pound continues to draw strength from steady UK fundamentals and relatively firm inflation expectations.Trump had initially proposed a sweeping 50% tariff on all European Union (EU) goods, but confirmed the extension following a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who stated that “Europe is ready to advance talks swiftly and decisively.”Additionally, comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde assisted in limiting further losses. Lagarde emphasized the need to strengthen the Euro’s global standing amid growing geopolitical and economic uncertainty.Lagarde stated, “The international role of the Euro is not something we can take for granted — it must be earned. And that means building trust through deeper capital markets, stronger institutions, and a commitment to economic security.”Despite the Euro's attempt to benefit from Monday’s events, EUR/GBP remained capped below the 0.8400 handle, as the British pound continued to draw support from firm domestic data and relatively stable inflation expectations. EUR/GBP prepares for Eurozone sentiment dataOn Tuesday, the Eurozone will release a series of key sentiment indicators for May, including Business Climate, Consumer Confidence, Economic Sentiment, Industrial Confidence, and Services Sentiment. These reports will offer valuable insight into how businesses and consumers are perceiving economic conditions across the region.For EUR/GBP, this data could be pivotal in determining whether the Euro can sustain its recent strength against the British Pound. Stronger-than-expected readings would likely reinforce confidence in the Eurozone’s resilience, potentially delaying further ECB rate cuts and providing a lift to the single currency.On the other hand, weaker sentiment figures may weigh on the Euro, particularly if ECB policymakers such as Klaas Knot and Joachim Nagel adopt a dovish tone in their remarks scheduled later in the day. In such a scenario, EUR/GBP bears may regain control, especially if UK fundamentals remain comparatively firm and continue to support the Pound. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

20:22 USD/INR eases above 85.00 as Rupee trims gains amid easing trade tensions
The Indian Rupee (INR) trims some of the earlier gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the USD/INR pair retreating slightly above 85.00 during the American trading hours.

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The slight weakness in the Indian Rupee comes on the back of easing global trade tensions, which lent some support to a broadly weak US Dollar.The Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six major currencies, is recovering after hitting a four-week low at the start of the day. At the time of writing, the Index is holding steady, trading above the 99.00 mark as traders repositioned after US President Donald Trump backed away from his threat to impose a 50% tariff on European Union (EU) goods to the US from June 1. Following a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Trump agreed to push the tariff deadline to July 9, in line with the previously announced 90-day truce. The shift has eased some immediate concerns and lent temporary support to the US Dollar.On the trade front, the United States is set to send a high-level trade delegation to India in the coming weeks, aiming to seal a long-awaited interim trade agreement. According to sources cited by multiple Indian media outlets, this upcoming round of talks could be the final push to resolve sticking points between the two sides. India is seeking a full exemption from the additional 26% duties the US imposed earlier this year, particularly to shield its labor-intensive export sectors such as textiles, leather, and jewelry. The country is also pushing to reduce the existing 10% base tariff.In return, India may consider allowing greater market access for American companies, including a potential opening of government procurement contracts, estimated to be worth over $50 billion.Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has already held two rounds of meetings in Washington with his US counterpart, signaling that both sides are committed to getting a deal across the finish line. A separate visit by India’s chief negotiator last week also set the stage for this critical final round. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

19:57 Canadian Dollar tests fresh seven-month highs amid quiet start to the week
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) kicked off the new trading week on a high note, kicking into fresh seven-month highs against the US Dollar (USD) and driving USD/CAD down into the 1.3700 handle for the first time since mid-October.

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Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

19:16 Gold slips as Trump delays tariffs on EU, thin holiday trading keeps action subdued
Gold price drops more than 0.50% on Monday amid the lack of demand for haven assets after United States (US) President Donald Trump delayed tariffs on the European Union (EU). In the meantime, trading remains thin due to the closure of the United Kingdom (UK) and US financial markets for holidays.

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In the meantime, trading remains thin due to the closure of the United Kingdom (UK) and US financial markets for holidays. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,336.Market mood improved on Trump’s statement on Sunday, pushing back the enactment of duties on EU products until July 9. Therefore, Bullion is pressured following last week’s gains of over 4.86%, the most significant increase since the week starting on April 7.On Friday, XAU/USD extended its bullish move as Trump continued to pressure Apple (AAPL) to make iPhones in the US. If not, 25% of duties would be imposed. At the same time, he escalated the rhetoric against the EU, threatening to impose 50% tariffs on its goods. This drove the golden metal from $3,287 to last week’s highest high of $3,365.Despite retreating, Gold prices are set to continue rallying, as Reuters revealed that “China's net gold imports via Hong Kong more than doubled in April from March, and were the highest since March 2024, data showed.”Additionally, geopolitical risks remain high after Russia attacked Ukraine for the third straight night, spurring an angry reaction on Trump.This week, the US economic docket will feature April Durable Goods Orders, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, the second estimate for Q1 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.Gold daily market movers: Improvement in risk appetite weighs on Gold pricesUS Treasury bond yields remain steady. The 10-year Treasury note yield fell two basis points (bps) on Friday to 4.509%. Meanwhile, US real yields were down as well, one 4 bps to 2.179%.Gold price outlook is optimistic, given the fragile market mood toward US assets sparked by the growing fiscal deficit in the United States, which ignited Moody’s downgrade of US government debt from AAA to AA1.The fiscal package approved by the US lower house is projected to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, edged down 0.10% at 99.00, a tailwind for the Dollar-denominated precious metal.Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 47.5 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data.Source: Prime Market TerminalXAU/USD technical outlook: Gold’s uptrend to extend to $3,400Gold prices retreated slightly, and it seems traders are booking profits amid thin liquidity and low volatility in the US in observance of the holiday. Trump’s inconsistency regarding trade policies could keep prices swinging violently once trading resumes on Tuesday.From a technical perspective, Gold’s bull trend remains intact. If buyers achieve a daily close above $3,300, they could test last week’s high of $3,365. If surpassed, the next stop would be the $3,400 figure, followed by the May 7 high at $3,438 and the all-time high (ATH) at $3,500.On the bearish side, if Gold drops below $3,300, expect a move to the May 20 daily low of $3,204, ahead of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,199. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

18:17 USD/JPY steadies ahead of BoJ Ueda’s remarks
USD/JPY is attempting a mild recovery after last week’s sell-off in the United States (US) bond market dragged the pair below the key psychological level of 144.00.

17:53 Silver consolidates near $33.50 after breakout, eyes $34.50 next
The Silver (XAG/USD) pair starts the week on a steady footing, hovering near $33.40 during the American trading hours on Monday, after gaining nearly 4% in the previous week on the back of a bullish technical breakout and renewed safe-haven demand.

Silver (XAG/USD) starts the week steady above $33.00 after posting a 4% gain last week.Key resistance is seen at $33.70–$34.00; a break above could expose March’s high near $34.50.Support rests at $32.60–$32.80, with deeper downside risk toward $32.00 and $31.00 if breached.The Silver (XAG/USD) pair starts the week on a steady footing, hovering near $33.40 during the American trading hours on Monday, after gaining nearly 4% in the previous week on the back of a bullish technical breakout and renewed safe-haven demand.Spot prices edged slightly lower earlier at the start of the day as signs of easing global trade tensions provided some support to a broadly weak US Dollar (USD). However, the white metal is holding ground above the $33.00 psychological mark. Markets are in ‘wait and see’ mode after last week’s big move, not yet ready to pick a new direction. While price action remains constructive, with buyers maintaining control as the metal trades above its short-term moving average, near-term momentum has cooled slightly. Nonetheless, the broader structure continues to favor further upside as long as key support levels hold.Zooming in on the daily chart, XAG/USD confirmed last week a breakout from a multi-week symmetrical triangle pattern that had capped upside momentum since mid-April and early May. Spot prices surged through the descending trendline resistance last week on Tuesday, with follow-through buying on Wednesday and a retest of the trendline on Thursday. Since the classic breakout-retest, the price has remained sideways. This breakout was confirmed with multiple daily closes above the triangle chart pattern around $32.60–$32.80, which closely aligns with the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).At the time of writing, Silver’s hanging out just below Friday’s high of $33.54, suggesting a mild pause in bullish momentum. However, the short pullback remains shallow and well-contained within a consolidation range, indicating that the market is not witnessing any aggressive profit-taking.The $33.70–$34.00 area now acts as a key resistance zone. A sustained move above this region could open the door for a retest of March’s high near $34.60, followed by the $35.00 round figure as the next upside target. On the flip side, initial support is seen at the $32.80–$32.60 breakout zone, reinforced by both the upper boundary of the former triangle and the 21-day EMA. A break below this level would likely trigger a deeper correction, with 32.00 being the first line of defense, followed by the $31.00 zone near mid-April. Momentum indicators continue to paint a moderately bullish picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding above the neutral 50 level, currently at 56.24, showing no signs of overbought conditions and leaving room for a fresh leg higher. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory with a slight bullish divergence developing, reinforcing the view that price action is pausing rather than reversing.

17:41 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Strives to hold 0.6500 for fresh rally
The AUD/USD pair surrenders significant intraday gains after posting a fresh six-month high near 0.6540 on Monday. The Aussie pair gives back a majority of gains as the US Dollar (USD) recoups its early losses.

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Still, the pair trades 0.3% high around 0.6500.US President Trump postponed 50% tariffs imposed on the EU until July 9.AUD/USD strengthens on a symmetrical triangle breakout on a daily timeframe.The AUD/USD pair surrenders significant intraday gains after posting a fresh six-month high near 0.6540 on Monday. The Aussie pair gives back a majority of gains as the US Dollar (USD) recoups its early losses. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, recovers to near 99.00 from its monthly low of 98.70 posted earlier in the day.The Australian Dollar (AUD) performs strongly as the market sentiment turns favorable for risk-perceived assets after United States (US) President Donald Trump suspended proposed 50% tariffs on the European Union (EU) until July 9.Trump postponed proposed EU tariffs after the old continent urged Washington for some time to reach a good deal.This week, investors will pay close attention to the inflation from both Australia and the United States (US), which will be published on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.AUD/USD delivers a breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle formation formed on a daily timeframe. A breakout of the above-mentioned chart pattern results in a volatility expansion, which leads to wider ticks on the upside and an increase in volume.The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 0.6426, indicating a strong uptrend.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) strives to break above 60.00. Bulls would come into action if the RSI breaks above the 60.00 level.More upside would appear towards the November 25 high of 0.6550 and the round-level resistance of 0.6600 if the pair if the pair breaks above the May 7 high of 0.6515.On the flip side, a downside move below the March 4 low of 0.6187 will expose it towards the February low of 0.6087, followed by the psychological support of 0.6000.AUD/USD daily chart Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

16:44 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Poise for fresh rally towards 0.6100
The NZD/USD pair posts a fresh six-and-a-half-month high near 0.6030 against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD refreshes six-and-a-half month high near 0.6030 ahead of the RBNZ policy meeting on Wednesday.The RBNZ will likely cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 bps to 3.25%.US President Trump suspends 50% tariffs on the EU until July 9.The NZD/USD pair posts a fresh six-and-a-half-month high near 0.6030 against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The Kiwi pair strengthens as the New Zealand (NZD) outperforms across the board ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.11% -0.24% 0.26% -0.05% -0.24% -0.46% 0.15% EUR 0.11% -0.13% 0.44% 0.06% -0.12% -0.34% 0.27% GBP 0.24% 0.13% 0.23% 0.19% 0.00% -0.22% 0.41% JPY -0.26% -0.44% -0.23% -0.33% -0.53% -0.80% -0.14% CAD 0.05% -0.06% -0.19% 0.33% -0.17% -0.40% 0.22% AUD 0.24% 0.12% -0.01% 0.53% 0.17% -0.27% 0.41% NZD 0.46% 0.34% 0.22% 0.80% 0.40% 0.27% 0.63% CHF -0.15% -0.27% -0.41% 0.14% -0.22% -0.41% -0.63% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote). The RBNZ is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25%. This would be the sixth straight interest rate cut by the RBNZ in its current monetary expansion cycle, which it started in the August policy meeting last year.Meanwhile, the US Dollar’s (USD) underperformance has also strengthened the Kiwi pair. The US Dollar claws majority of its initial losses during the day. Still, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades slightly lower around 99.00.The US Dollar has been on the backfoot as concerns over its safe-haven status have renewed after United States (US) President Donald Trump suspended his decision to impose 50% flat tariffs on the European Union (EU) until July 9, which he threatened on Friday.NZD/USD strives to break the Bullish Flag formation on the upside. Historically, the chart pattern resumes its strong rally after a breakout of the consolidation. The near-term trend of the pair is bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 0.5925.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks above 60.00. Bulls would come into action if the RSI holds above the 60.00 level.The Kiwi pair is expected to rise towards the September 11 low of 0.6100 and the October 9 high of 0.6145 after breaking above the intraday high around 0.6030.In an alternate scenario, a downside move below the May 12 low of 0.5846 will expose it to the round-level support of 0.5800, followed by the April 10 high of 0.5767.NZD/USD daily chart
Economic Indicator RBNZ Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD. Read more. Next release: Wed May 28, 2025 02:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 3.25% Previous: 3.5% Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Why it matters to traders? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby's press conference.

16:17 EUR/CAD steadies as EU tariff delays and robust Canadian data drive mixed momentum
The Euro (EUR) is firming against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on Monday, bolstered by easing trade tensions after the United States announced a delay in implementing new tariffs on European imports.

16:02 USD/CAD holds steady above 1.3700 as trade tension eases amid holiday-thinned trading
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) gives back some of the initial gains against the US Dollar (USD) at the early American session on Monday, with the USD/CAD pair trading around 1.3720 at the time of writing after hiting a daily low of 1.3686 earlier in the day as follow-through selling faded on the signs of

USD/CAD trades around 1.3720 ahead of the American session on Monday.US President Trump steps back from EU tariff threat, extends deadline to July 9.DXY index slips to four-week low before stabilizing on easing geopolitical risk.The Canadian Dollar (CAD) gives back some of the initial gains against the US Dollar (USD) at the early American session on Monday, with the USD/CAD pair trading around 1.3720 at the time of writing after hiting a daily low of 1.3686 earlier in the day as follow-through selling faded on the signs of easing trade tensions between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).On Friday, US President Donald Trump reignited the trade tensions by threatening to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, citing stalled negotiations, adding to a risk-off mood. However, on Sunday, Trump backed away from this threat, agreeing to extend the deadline back to July 9. This U-turn comes on the back of a phone call between Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.The Loonie hit a seven-month high against the US Dollar on Friday after Canadian Retail Sales data was released. The data revealed a stronger-than-expected 0.8% rise in the Retail Sales in March, beating the market forecast of 0.7%. The data reinforces the resilience of Canadian consumer spending, despite broader economic concerns.Recent Canadian data has painted a mixed but constructive macroeconomic picture. While headline inflation showed a notable cooling in April, underlying price pressures remained firm, with the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) preferred core measures rising at a faster pace.Last week’s stronger-than-expected core inflation data, coupled with strong consumer demand, can lead the BoC to move cautiously in its rate-easing path at its next meeting in June. In the wake of these mixed signals, currency swap markets continue to price in a 32% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the BoC at its June meeting, according to Bloomberg. The combination of sticky core inflation and resilient consumer spending has left markets divided, with some economists now expecting the central bank to hold rates steady.Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains under pressure with the Dollar Index (DXY) hitting a four-week low of 98.70 at the start of the week on Monday. At the time of writing, the Greenback stabilizes above the 99.00 level on the hopes of easing trade tensions between the US and EU. Still, it remains broadly weak amid mounting fiscal concerns and a cautious Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook.Looking ahead, with both the US and UK markets closed on Monday for public holidays, trading volumes are expected to remain light, which may limit meaningful price action. Later in the week, market participants will closely monitor Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday and Canada's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the first quarter and March, scheduled for release on Friday.

15:09 Mexican Peso trades at a new YTD high against the US Dollar on US Memorial Day
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is experiencing a steady appreciation against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, reflecting lingering uncertainty in the United States (US) economic outlook amid concerns about US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and the country’s fiscal outlook.

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Market participants are particularly focused on the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for April, as well as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data, which are scheduled for Friday. These data points are crucial for understanding inflation and consumer sentiment trends, and gauging how US citizens feel about the current economic situation, both of which are important factors that may influence expectations regarding when the Federal Reserve (Fed) might consider cutting interest rates.Mexican Peso daily digest: USD/MXN faces pressure due to renewed US Dollar weaknessThe US credit rating downgrade, rising expectations of increased US debt levels, and a sell-off in the bond market have placed the resilience of the USD under significant scrutiny. The USD struggles to gain ground as investors digest US President Donald Trump’s decision to extend EU tariffs until July 9. The announcement on Monday cheered risk markets, as traders see it as an opportunity for negotiations between the two significant economies.On Friday, Trump had threatened to impose 50% tariffs on European Union imports and 25% tariffs on Apple and Samsung smartphones, rattling markets.The persistent threats of tariffs from President Trump directed at international counterparts are undermining investor confidence, thereby challenging the USD's status as the preferred reserve currency.On Tuesday, US Consumer Confidence data, which gauges Americans’ views about the economy and finances, will be released. Wednesday’s agenda will see the publication of the minutes from the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, offering insights into interest rate discussions, alongside public statements from Fed members providing additional context for future monetary policy.Mexican Peso technical analysis: USD/MXN pressures support with October low in focusUSD/MXN remains entrenched in a firm downtrend, hitting a new year-to-date low just below 19.20 at the time of writing.Price action continues to hover below both the 10-day and 20-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), which act as dynamic resistances at 19.34 and 19.47, respectively.Momentum indicators remain weak, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) parked at 35.79, suggesting that while bearish momentum, the market is not yet in oversold territory. With downside pressure building, attention now shifts to the October low at 19.11, which serves as the next major support. A sustained break below this level could open the door to deeper declines toward 19.00, while any rebound would first need to reclaim 19.47 to shift short-term sentiment.USD/MXN daily chart
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

14:44 EUR/JPY jumps to near 163.00 as EU-US trade tensions de-escalate
The EUR/JPY pair is up 0.45% to 162.60 in European trading hours on Monday, touches a high of 163.00 during the day.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY trades firmly as the Euro gains on diminished trade tensions between the EU and the US.US President Trump suspended 50% of EU tariffs until July 9.The Japanese Yen underperforms despite hot Japan National CPI data for April.The EUR/JPY pair is up 0.45% to 162.60 in European trading hours on Monday, touches a high of 163.00 during the day. The cross strengthens as investors underpinned the Euro (EUR) against the Japanese yen (JPY) on de-escalation in trade tensions between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).Trade disputes between economies from both sides of the Atlantic have eased as US President Donald Trump has postponed 50% flat tariffs on the EU to July 9. Trump proposed a 50% duty on imports from the old continent on Friday, which was scheduled to come into action on June 1. Both economies have agreed to advance trade discussions after the EU urged Washington for some time to reach a good deal.European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen said in a post on X on Sunday that she had a "good" phone call with Trump and that the EU was ready to “advance talks swiftly and decisively." "To reach a good deal, we would need the time until July 9," she added.Meanwhile, better-than-projected revised German Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data has also supported the Euro. According to the revised estimates, the German economy expanded by 0.4% in the first quarter of the year, stronger than preliminary expectations and the prior release of 0.2%.On the Tokyo front, the JPY is underperforming across the board despite a hotter-than-projected Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April, which potentially increases the odds of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the July meeting. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.10% -0.23% 0.30% -0.10% -0.25% -0.41% 0.16% EUR 0.10% -0.12% 0.46% 0.04% -0.15% -0.31% 0.27% GBP 0.23% 0.12% 0.23% 0.13% -0.03% -0.17% 0.41% JPY -0.30% -0.46% -0.23% -0.40% -0.57% -0.78% -0.15% CAD 0.10% -0.04% -0.13% 0.40% -0.14% -0.30% 0.29% AUD 0.25% 0.15% 0.03% 0.57% 0.14% -0.19% 0.46% NZD 0.41% 0.31% 0.17% 0.78% 0.30% 0.19% 0.60% CHF -0.16% -0.27% -0.41% 0.15% -0.29% -0.46% -0.60% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). On Friday, Japan’s National CPI excluding Fresh Food rose at a faster pace of 3.6%, compared to estimates of 3.4% and the March reading of 3.2%. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

14:35 GBP nears 1.36, highest since early 2022 – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is modestly firmer on the session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is modestly firmer on the session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Strong GBP bull trend develops"There were no major developments of note over the weekend and no data releases today. Markets have priced out all but any risk of a rate cut at the June 19th BoE decision. There are only second-tier survey reports due over the rest of this week which are unlikely to shape market expectations to any significant degree." "Cable traded a little shy of 1.36 in quiet overnight trade, its highest since early 2022. Minor resistance at 1.3595 may cap the pound in the short run but the bull trend here looks solid as well." "There is a clear alignment of DMI oscillators across the intraday, daily and weekly studies which suggests limited scope for counter-trend corrections and firm support on minor dips. Support is 1.3545/50. Resistance is 1.3595/00 ahead of 1.3740/50."

14:33 EUR probes 1.14 area on tariff relief – Scotiabank
The EU’s tariff reprieve followed what the president called a 'very nice call' with Commission President von der Leyen over the weekend, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The EU’s tariff reprieve followed what the president called a 'very nice call' with Commission President von der Leyen over the weekend, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Trend remains firm"Concerns over the impact of 50% tariffs on US growth and prices may also have played a part in the decision to delay. Or perhaps Europe offered more concessions. European stocks are up nicely on the day in response and that gain extends the YTD outperformance of European blue chips (up 10%) over US markets (S&P down 2%). Given the sell-off in the USD, currency adjusted returns for US investors in EU stocks is even more remarkable (+21%).""Spot gains stalled in the low 1.14 area overnight but the solid bull trend from the mid-May low remains intact and looks to be developing strongly still. Bullish trend indicators are aligning across the intraday, daily and weekly oscillators. Support is 1.1325/50. Resistance is 1.1460 and 1.1580/00."

14:31 CAD holds ground in low 1.37s – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) had a decent run lower last week, with the US Dollar's (USD’s) 1.6% drop through Friday leaving the CAD as one of the better-performing major currencies on the week.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) had a decent run lower last week, with the US Dollar's (USD’s) 1.6% drop through Friday leaving the CAD as one of the better-performing major currencies on the week. Eare, negative CAD/stocks correlation noted"That’s pretty good for the CAD, particularly in the context of a soft week for US equity markets. Our correlation screen highlights an unusual, negative correlation between the CAD and US equities at present, in fact. The rolling 1m correlation is –36%, not statistically significant but quite rare." "As a high beta currency, the CAD typically trades more in line with equity sentiment, meaning Canadian investors is US equities usually get a bit of a cushion from stock market volatility (losses) from the exchange rate. If this situation persists, Canadian portfolios may find themselves underhedged. In a G&M interview Friday, BoC Governor Macklem said there was more volatility in core inflation and that policy makers had 'many factors' to consider before the June rate decision." "Last week’s USD losses through support (now resistance) at 1.3745/50, the April low and retracement support, sets the CAD up for a further advance in the next few weeks. There is little ahead of the USD in terms of support until the 1.34/1.35 area. Loss of retracement support (76.4% of the Sep/Feb USD surge) rather suggests a full retracement to 1.3420 now."

14:29 USD eases amid latest tariff reprieve – Scotiabank
President Trump rescinded his threat of 50% tariffs on EU imports over the weekend, delaying the decision until July 9th, the original end date of his last delay on reciprocal tariffs announced early in April, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

President Trump rescinded his threat of 50% tariffs on EU imports over the weekend, delaying the decision until July 9th, the original end date of his last delay on reciprocal tariffs announced early in April, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD eases in quiet trade as President Trump days threat of 50% EU tariffs"Risk sentiment has picked up a little in response, with European stock and US equity futures firmer. Chinese markets were lower on the day, however, as local EV stocks tumbled. The Chinese authorities sanctioned a firmer CNY via the PBoC fixing earlier, suggesting more gains are likely in the near term as the USD slips and regional peers appreciate. The USD is generally softer but off early lows. NZD is the top-performing major currency while the JPY and KRW sit at the foot of the overnight performance table." "Although President Trump has stepped back again from the precipice of aggressive tariff action, the rather capricious appearance of policymaking may undermine global investors’ confidence in US markets at a time when the erosion of free trade, concerns over fiscal policy and the administration’s relations with the Fed are already proving challenging for investor sentiment. The Bloomberg dollar index is at its lowest level since December 2023. In a Bloomberg interview on the terminal Friday, Treasury Sec. Bessent suggested the situation reflected other currencies strengthening rather than USD weakening." "Well. That’s a debatable position (gold?) but it does suggest little concern in the administration about the sliding USD trend and if the Treasury secretary is not unhappy with it, that could be seen as tacit endorsement of the move. The DXY may stabilize intraday, given low turnover is likely today due to the US Memorial Day holiday, but the soft weekly close Friday suggests the April/May consolidation has broken down bearishly for the index and more losses are likely moving forward. DXY support is 97.90/00 ahead of a drop to 95 or so."

14:23 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD pulls back to $3,325 with the bullish trend still intact
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading lower on Monday, weighed by softer demand for safe havens.

14:22 US Dollar partially recovers after brief dip on EU tariffs delay
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks slightly lower this Monday after facing some small losses during early trading hours. The index trades around 99.00 at the time of writing.

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Markets rejoice at the US tariffs delay on EU goods, giving more time to the bloc to negotiate a trade deal.The US Dollar Index ticks slightly lower in European trading around 99.00.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks slightly lower this Monday after facing some small losses during early trading hours. The index trades around 99.00 at the time of writing. The dip in the Greenback came after the United States (US) President Donald Trump agreed to extend the deadline of the 50% tariffs on the EU to July 9, instead of June 1, when they were supposed to become effective. Overall, a sigh of relief ripples through markets with risk assets emerging as the biggest winners on these developments at the start of the week. Several traders and analysts are still pointing to persistent issues that remain sticky. The tax bill from President Trump is on its way to be voted on in the Senate, and will add extra pressure on the US debt. With a further ballooning deficit, yields could still rise more, with traders demanding a higher premium for them to buy US debt. Daily digest market movers: Fed takes it over againSpeculative traders remained bearish on the US Dollar but trimmed their positioning to $12.4 billion in the week ending May 20 from $16.5 billion in the week prior, according to CFTC data reported Friday, Reuters reports.Trump announced he would extend to July 9 the deadline for the European Union (EU) to face 50% tariffs. The decision came after a call between Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday, and should help the EU negotiate a trade deal with the Trump administration, Bloomberg reports.The US economic calendar is almost empty on Monday due to the Memorial Day public holiday in the US. Later this week, the second reading for the US Gross Domestic Product of the first quarter is due on Thursday. The Personal Consumption Expenditure data for April is due Friday. Equities are rallying in the brief sigh of relief on the US tariffs delay. European equities are surging over 1%, together with US futures. The CME FedWatch tool shows the chances of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June’s meeting are only at a low 5.6%. Further ahead, the July 30 meeting sees odds for rates being lower than current levels at 23.9%. The US 10-year yields will not move this Monday as US markets remain closed due to the Memorial Day public holiday. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Recovery to comeThe US Dollar Index recovers from daily lows on Monday, with some adventurous bulls coming in to buy the dip, which materialized in early Asian trading. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) starting to break below 40 and nearing the oversold barrier, some slowdown and even a turnaround in the DXY could take place. The recovery could be short-lived, though, as several macroeconomic issues are still unresolved. On the upside, the 100.22 level, which held the DXY back in September-October, is the first resistance, followed by the broken ascending trend line near 100.80 on Monday. Further up, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 101.39 is the next level to watch out for, followed by 101.90, a pivotal level throughout December 2023 and a base for the inverted Head-and-Shoulders (H&S) formation during the summer of 2024. In case US Dollar bulls push the DXY even higher, the 103.18 pivotal level will come into play.If the downward pressure continues, a nosedive move could materialize towards the year-to-date low of 97.91 and the pivotal level of 97.73. Further below, a relatively thin technical support comes in at 96.94 before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

13:59 GBP: Further glimmers of hope – Commerzbank
In recent weeks, the Pound Sterling (GBP) has recovered significantly against the euro, with the exchange rate now standing at around 0.84 instead of 0.87.

In recent weeks, the Pound Sterling (GBP) has recovered significantly against the euro, with the exchange rate now standing at around 0.84 instead of 0.87. While the trade deal with the US certainly played a role in this, higher-than-expected inflation in April also made it clear that the Bank of England (BoE) cannot cut interest rates as quickly as previously thought, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. GBP is likely to appreciate more slowly from now on"What is new is that the state of the real economy is not quite as bad as it was a few weeks ago. On Thursday, the initial estimates for the purchasing managers' indices in May were released. Although the manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly, this sector has played virtually no role in UK growth in recent years. More decisive was the fact that the services PMI climbed back above the 50 mark, suggesting weak growth. Retail sales for April were even better than expected. In the first four months of the year, sales were significantly better than at the end of last year.""While there were fears of stagflation a few weeks ago, the outlook in the UK now looks brighter. Some commentators are revising their Bank of England (BoE) forecasts, arguing that the real economy does not need further monetary stimulus. We would be somewhat more cautious here, though. Although our economists recently revised their UK growth forecast upwards, the increase was only slight. Instead, we feel that our recent forecasts have been confirmed. UK macro figures were surprisingly good in the first half of 2024, only to weaken significantly in the second half." "We have frequently pointed out that the underlying trend is likely to lie somewhere in the middle. Now that the figures are strong again, we feel confirmed in our view that the British economy is in better shape than it appeared just a few weeks ago. At the same time, however, we would caution against expecting miracles. We therefore assume that the pound is likely to appreciate more slowly from now on, although we are maintaining our positive outlook."

13:58 EU spokesperson: EU's 'zero-for-zero' proposal still on table in talks with US
A spokesperson for the European Commission said on Monday that the European Union's (EU) 'zero-for-zero' proposal is still on the table in tariff negotiations with the United States (US), per Reuters.

13:55 USD/CNH: Downward momentum has not increased significantly – UOB Group
There is a chance for US Dollar (USD) to test 7.1650 vs Chinese Yuan (CNH); the major support at 7.1500 is unlikely to come into view.

There is a chance for US Dollar (USD) to test 7.1650 vs Chinese Yuan (CNH); the major support at 7.1500 is unlikely to come into view. In the longer run, downward momentum has not increased significantly, but bias for USD is on the downside toward 7.1500, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Bias for USD is on the downside toward 7.150024-HOUR VIEW: "Contrary to our expectation of range trading, USD fell last Friday, closing down by 0.46% at 7.1720. The decline appears to be overdone, but there is a chance for USD to test 7.1650 before stabilisation is likely. The major support at 7.1500 is unlikely to come into view. Resistance levels are at 7.1870 and 7.1980." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our latest narrative from last Tuesday, 20 May, when USD was at 7.2160, we noted that the recent 'downward momentum has largely faded, and instead of weakening, USD is likely to trade in a 7.1850/7.2450 range for now.' After trading in a range for a few days, USD fell below 7.1850 last Friday (low of 7.1717). Despite the decline, downward momentum has not increased significantly. That said, as long as 7.2070 (‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached, the bias for USD is on the downside toward 7.1500."

13:51 The US-UK trade deal doesn't look so bad after all – Commerzbank
As if to keep us on our toes on an otherwise uneventful Friday, Donald Trump followed up his threat of tariffs on smartphones by announcing that 50% tariffs would be imposed on EU goods from 1 June, due to stalled negotiations with the European Union.

As if to keep us on our toes on an otherwise uneventful Friday, Donald Trump followed up his threat of tariffs on smartphones by announcing that 50% tariffs would be imposed on EU goods from 1 June, due to stalled negotiations with the European Union. As usual, he justified this decision by citing discrimination by the EU. This announcement did not last very long. Last night, it was reported that, following a 'very nice' conversation between Trump and the President of the European Commission, the tariffs had been postponed until 9 July to allow time for a deal to be reached, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Trade war fears return as tariff deadline looms "The postponement of the higher reciprocal tariffs by 90 days, and the apparently successful negotiations with the United Kingdom and China, have once again solidified the view in the market that things will not be so bad after all, and that the US government has learned from the market reaction. The fact that difficult negotiations still lie ahead has been somewhat overlooked. Trump's announcement has once again made it clear that the danger of a full-blown trade war has not been averted.""The 50% tariffs on EU goods announced by Trump exceed the 20% announced on 'Liberation Day' and the 39% allegedly deserved according to the formula used at the time. Clearly, the level of tariffs is being set completely arbitrarily, so we cannot assume that the tariffs announced at the beginning of April will simply remain in place if the talks fail. The trade deal between the United Kingdom and the United States was heavily criticised afterwards. However, given the significantly more challenging negotiations with the EU, this deal is starting to look better. Although the UK has been hit with a 10% tariff, this seems manageable compared to 50%, supporting our forecast of a stronger pound in the coming weeks.""Following Trump's latest U-turn, we will, of course, have to wait and see what happens next. It is possible that a deal with the European Union will be reached by 9 July. However, it is questionable what has changed in terms of the fundamental problems following a phone call. One thing should be clear after Friday's announcement: the brief respite from tariffs that we enjoyed was only temporary. We are likely to face more turbulent days and weeks ahead precisely because the 90-day suspension of higher reciprocal tariffs is coming to an end."

13:46 EUR/USD rises as Trump takes U-turn on EU tariffs
EUR/USD jumps above 1.1400 during European trading hours on Monday, the highest level seen this month. The major currency pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) falters on erratic statements coming from Washington regarding tariff policies.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD moves higher to near 1.1420 as Trump’s erratic policy announcements have renewed concerns over the USD’s credibility.According to revised estimates, the German economy rose at a robust pace of 0.4% in the first quarter of the year.This week, investors will focus on the inflation data from both the EU and the US.EUR/USD jumps above 1.1400 during European trading hours on Monday, the highest level seen this month. The major currency pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) falters on erratic statements coming from Washington regarding tariff policies. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slides below 99.00.Over the weekend, Trump suspended his decision to impose flat 50% tariffs on the European Union (EU) until July 9, after the old continent agreed to advance trade negotiations quickly and urged for some time to reach a good deal. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a post on X on Sunday that she had a "good" phone call with Trump and that the EU was ready to “advance talks swiftly and decisively." "To reach a good deal, we would need the time until July 9," she added.On Friday, US President Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the EU in a post on Truth.Social, which were expected to come into effect on June 1. “Our discussions with them are going nowhere! Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025,” Trump wrote.A quick de-escalation in trade tensions between economies situated on both sides of the Atlantic has provided relief to their equity markets and the Euro (EU), but has put the credibility of the US Dollar under suspicion again. The Greenback has substantially suffered in past few months as events such as ever-changing Trump’s tariff policies, threats to remove Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell and a new tax cut and spending bill that is expected to increase already ballooning nation’s debt by $3.8 trillion have dampened USD’s safe-haven appeal. Increasing doubts over the Greenback’s credibility have also increased the Euro’s appeal. “We think the euro is continuing to benefit from being the most liquid alternative to the dollar,” ING said.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD gains on upbeat revised German Q1 GDP dataSigns of strength in the domestic region have also benefited the Euro, besides being an alternative to the US Dollar and the rising hopes of a potential EU-US trade deal. The major currency gains as revised Q1 German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data showed that the economy grew at a faster pace of 0.4%, compared to the preliminary estimates and the prior release of 0.2%.Upbeat German Q1 GDP data has diminished fears of an economic contraction on a yearly basis after declining for two straight years. Analysts at Deutsche Bank Research stated upbeat Q1 GDP figures indicate that the German economy has gained enough momentum to avoid stagnation this year. Experts guided that the economy would continue the positive trend in the second half of the year despite the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policy.On the monetary policy front, European Central Bank (ECB) officials have expressed optimism that inflationary pressures could return to the 2% target this year, due to which traders have remained increasingly confident that the central bank will cut interest rates again in June’s meeting.The comments from ECB policymaker and Governor of the Bank of Greece Yannis Stournaras, published in a Greek news media on Friday, indicated that he is comfortable with traders’ dovish bets for the policy meeting in June. "I expect one more interest rate cut in June and then a pause," Stournaras said.This week, the EUR/USD pair will be influenced by the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price index (PCE) data for April and the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data from major countries of the EU for May, which will be published on Friday.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD refreshes almost a month high above 1.1400EUR/USD posts a fresh almost a month high near 1.1420 at the start of the week. The near-term outlook of the pair is bullish as it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.1270.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises to near 60.00. Bulls would come into action if the RSI breaks above the 60.00 level.Looking up, the April 21 high of 1.1475 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the September 25 high of 1.1215 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

13:40 USD/JPY: Any decline is likely part of a lower range of 142.10/143.45 – UOB Group
Scope for US Dollar (USD) to weaken further vs Japanese Yen (JPY); any decline is likely part of a lower range of 142.10/143.45. In the longer run, risk is still on the downside, but it remains to be seen if USD can maintain its pace of decline.

Scope for US Dollar (USD) to weaken further vs Japanese Yen (JPY); any decline is likely part of a lower range of 142.10/143.45. In the longer run, risk is still on the downside, but it remains to be seen if USD can maintain its pace of decline. The level to monitor is 141.70, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Risk is still on the downside24-HOUR VIEW: "Last Friday, we expected USD to consolidate between 143.40 and 144.70. However, USD fell and reached 142.41. Despite the decline, downward momentum has not increased significantly. Today, while there is scope for USD to weaken further, any decline is likely part of a lower range of 142.10/143.45. In other words, USD is unlikely to break clearly below 142.10." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our USD to negative in the middle of last week. On Friday (23 May, spot at 143.95), we highlighted the following: 'While further declines remain possible, deeply oversold conditions and tentative slowing of downward momentum could first lead to consolidation. That said, yesterday’s low near 142.80, is now acting as a strong support level. On the upside, a break above 145.05 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate a broader and longer consolidation phase.' We did not expect USD to quickly resume its decline, dropping to a low of 142.41. The risk is still on the downside, but it remains to be seen whether USD can maintain the current pace of decline. The level to monitor is 141.70. On the upside, a breach of 144.00 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 145.05) would suggest the weakness has stabilised."

13:38 USD/CHF Price Analysis: Rejection at 0.8225 keeps the 0.8200 support on focus
The US Dollar has failed to break the 0,8225 resistance area, where the near-term descending channel meets a previous support, now turned resistance.

13:31 US: Is this still capitalism? – Commerzbank
On Friday, Donald Trump returned to his favourite topic, tariffs. In response to the announcement of a big US technology company that it plans to move production from China to India, Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on its smartphone unless they are manufactured in the US for the US market.

On Friday, Donald Trump returned to his favourite topic, tariffs. In response to the announcement of a big US technology company that it plans to move production from China to India, Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on its smartphone unless they are manufactured in the US for the US market. Although he had previously called for relocations to the USA pretty clearly, he had never before threatened to impose tariffs on individual companies, especially a US company. Unsurprisingly, shares of the company came under pressure on Friday, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. No positive impact on the US dollar on the cards"The scale of this threat is unprecedented. Until now, tariffs have affected companies indirectly, but in such cases, all companies are usually affected equally, depending on their production sites. In the case of tariffs on cars, at least one industry was generally affected. However, no company was directly targeted. Especially not a US company. In recent months, many analysts have argued that the tariffs will not be so bad because Trump tolerated companies shifting their production from China to other countries during his first term in office.""It is unlikely that the US government's goal is for US consumers to feel the higher costs. Rather, the US government would probably prefer companies to relocate their production to the US and cover the higher costs themselves. A big US retail company has already learned that the government is not keen on passing on higher costs to consumers.""If companies are to produce more expensively in future but are denied the opportunity to charge higher prices, they will have to cut their margins. This would affect their ability to pay dividends or buy back shares. In other words, the share prices of companies under pressure from the US government are likely to be lower in the long term. One may disagree with this from a political standpoint. But this is unlikely to have a positive impact on the US dollar, particularly given the current concerns surrounding US government bonds due to mounting government debt."

13:25 USD/JPY: Pace of decline may slow – OCBC
USD/JPY extended its decline as Trump tariff threats ramped up demand for safe haven proxies, including JPY, CHF and Gold. USD/JPY was last at 142.85 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD/JPY extended its decline as Trump tariff threats ramped up demand for safe haven proxies, including JPY, CHF and Gold. USD/JPY was last at 142.85 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Risks remain skewed to the downside"Daily momentum turned mild bearish while RSI fell. Risks remain skewed to the downside. Next support at 142, 141.60 before 139.90 (recent low in April). Resistance at 144.40/60 levels (21 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low) and 145.70 (50 DMA)."

13:23 NZD/USD: Any advance is unlikely to reach 0.6030 – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could rise further vs US Dollar (USD), but due to the overbought conditions, any advance is unlikely to reach 0.6030. In the longer run, for a sustained advance, NZD must break and hold above 0.6030, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could rise further vs US Dollar (USD), but due to the overbought conditions, any advance is unlikely to reach 0.6030. In the longer run, for a sustained advance, NZD must break and hold above 0.6030, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. For a sustained advance, NZD must break and hold above 0.603024-HOUR VIEW: "We did not expect NZD to soar last Friday (we were expecting range trading). The sharp rise appears to be overdone, but there is no sign of a slowdown yet. Today, NZD could rise further, but due to the deeply overbought conditions, any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance level at 0.6030. There is another resistance level at 0.6010. Support is at 0.5970; a break of 0.5950 would mean that NZD is not advancing further." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our latest narrative from last Thursday (22 May, spot at 0.5935), we highlighted that 'While the price action over the past couple of days provides no fresh clues, a narrower 0.5865/0.5985 range is likely enough to contain the price movements for now.' Last Friday, NZD surged, rising slightly above 0.5985 (high of 0.5989). NZD closed on a strong at note 0.5986, up by 1.50%. While there has been an increase in momentum, it is not enough to indicate a sustained rise just yet. For a sustained advance, NZD must break and hold above the significant resistance at 0.6030. The chance of a clear breakout will rise in the coming days, provided that the ‘strong support’ level at 0.5920 holds."# Is this still capitalism?

13:19 GBP/USD: Room for gains – OCBC
Pound Sterling (GBP) extended its run higher, to more than 3-year high as activity, inflation and PMI services data surprised to the upside. Pair was last at 1.3565, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Pound Sterling (GBP) extended its run higher, to more than 3-year high as activity, inflation and PMI services data surprised to the upside. Pair was last at 1.3565, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Further upside likely"Elsewhere, a softer USD trend also helped. We had earlier said the GBP performance has been surprisingly resilient amongst the DM FX and remains so. This can be attributed to better-than-expected growth momentum (reflected in recent GDP, retail sales, PMI data), less dovish than expected BoE rhetoric as well as the US-UK trade deal (removes uncertainty element)." "We also reckon the USD diversification/reallocation flows can also benefit GBP amongst other reserve FX. Daily momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose. Further upside likely. Next resistance at 1.3660, 1.3750 levels. Support at 1.3450 (previous double top, now turned support), 1.3330 (21 DMA)."

13:18 AUD/USD gives up some initial gains as US Dollar strives to gain ground
The AUD/USD pair gives back some of its initial gains after posting a fresh six-month high near 0.6540 on Monday. Still, the Aussie pair is up 0.35% around 0.6500 and is expected to remain on the frontfoot on renewed concerns over the safe-haven status of the US Dollar (USD).

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Still, the Aussie pair is up 0.35% around 0.6500 and is expected to remain on the frontfoot on renewed concerns over the safe-haven status of the US Dollar (USD).The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, attracts bids after posting a fresh monthly low around 98.70 earlier in the day and has rebounded to near 99.00.Investors have again started doubting the credibility of the US Dollar after United States (US) President Donald Trump suspended his decision to impose 50% flat tariffs on the European Union (EU). His decision came after a telephonic conversation with European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen.Another reason behind uncertainty over the US Dollar’s outlook is heightened concerns over the US fiscal deficits. The advancement of a new bill by US President Trump to the Senate, which could increase the national debt by $3.8 trillion over a decade, has accelerated fears of further fiscal imbalances, which is unfavorable for the US's long-term credit issuer rating.Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its peers, except the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in risk-on market conditions. Trump’s EU tariff suspension has increased the risk appetite of investors. Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.14% -0.27% 0.24% -0.12% -0.27% -0.47% 0.00% EUR 0.14% -0.12% 0.41% 0.02% -0.13% -0.33% 0.15% GBP 0.27% 0.12% 0.23% 0.14% -0.01% -0.21% 0.29% JPY -0.24% -0.41% -0.23% -0.38% -0.54% -0.78% -0.25% CAD 0.12% -0.02% -0.14% 0.38% -0.13% -0.34% 0.15% AUD 0.27% 0.13% 0.00% 0.54% 0.13% -0.24% 0.29% NZD 0.47% 0.33% 0.21% 0.78% 0.34% 0.24% 0.50% CHF -0.00% -0.15% -0.29% 0.25% -0.15% -0.29% -0.50% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). On the economic front, investors await the Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, which will be released on Wednesday. The inflation data is estimated to have risen at a moderate pace of 2.3%, compared to 2.4% growth seen in March. Slower-than-projected Australian inflation growth is expected to encourage Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials to lower interest rates again. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

13:15 AUD/USD: To rise above the early-month high of 0.6515 – UOB Group
There is scope for Australian Dollar (AUD) to rise above the early-month high of 0.6515 vs US Dollar (USD); any further advance is unlikely to reach 0.6550.

There is scope for Australian Dollar (AUD) to rise above the early-month high of 0.6515 vs US Dollar (USD); any further advance is unlikely to reach 0.6550. In the longer run, rapid buildup in momentum suggests AUD is likely to trade with an upward bias toward 0.6550, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Any further advance is unlikely to reach 0.655024-HOUR VIEW: "Last Friday, we noted that AUD 'is under mild downward pressure.' We held the view that AUD 'is likely to edge lower to 0.6395.' We were incorrect, as after dipping to 0.6409, AUD lifted off and closed higher by a whopping 1.39% (0.6498). The rapid advance appears to be excessive, but there is scope for AUD to rise above 0.6515, the high seen earlier this month. Given the overbought conditions, any further advance is unlikely to reach 0.6550. On the downside, we expect any pullback to stay above 0.6460 (minor support is at 0.6480)." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from last Wednesday (21 May, spot at 0.6425) wherein 'the recent choppy price action has resulted in a mixed outlook.' We were of the view that AUD 'is likely to trade in a range between 0.6370 and 0.6480 for the time being.' Last Friday, AUD surged and reached a high of 0.6500. There has been a rapid buildup in momentum, and we expect AUD to trade with an upward bias toward 0.6550. To sustain the momentum buildup, AUD must remain above 0.6430."

13:10 DXY: Pulled by gravity – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) bounced at first when Trump threatened with tariffs last Friday. But the bounce did not last, and USD extended its weakness into Monday trade. The price action underscores a re-pricing of weak USD sentiment and confidence.

US Dollar (USD) bounced at first when Trump threatened with tariffs last Friday. But the bounce did not last, and USD extended its weakness into Monday trade. The price action underscores a re-pricing of weak USD sentiment and confidence. DXY was last at 98.03 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Risks are skewed to the downside"Last Friday, Trump threatened a 50% tariff on all goods sent to the US from the EU, as soon as 1 Jun (but later extended to 9 Jul). He also warned Apple that he would impose a 25% import tax 'at least' on iPhones not manufactured in America and later broadened the threat to any smartphone maker including Samsung. This move followed Trump's earlier announcement that the US would send letters to some of its trading partners to unilaterally impose new tariff rates over the next 2-3 weeks." "However, it remains unclear whether these new tariffs would be in addition to existing ones or if they would supersede previous rates. Compounding Trump’s tariff angst, the One, Big, Beautiful Bill has also casted a long shadow over the sustainability of the US fiscal position. Policy unpredictability surrounding Trump’s tariffs and the erosion of US exceptionalism could further undermine sentiment and confidence in the USD." "Bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI fell. Risks are skewed to the downside. Next support at 97.90 (2025 low), 97.40 levels. Resistance at 99.10, 100.2 (21 DMA) and 100.80 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 peak to trough). US market is closed today for Memorial Day holiday."

13:07 البنك الأهلي وبنك مصر يخفضان معدلات الفائدة بمقدار 1% على شهادات الادخار بعد قرار البنك المركزي المصري CBE
قال الرئيس التنفيذي للبنك الأهلي المصري، محمد الإتربي، إن لجنة السياسات النقدية اجتمعت صباح اليوم وقررت تخفيض معدلات الفائدة على الشهادة ذات العائد الشهري لأجل 3 سنوات بمقدار 1%.

قرر البنك الأهلي المصري وبنك مصر، أكبر بنكين في البلاد، خفض معدلات الفائدة على شهادات الادخار بالجنيه المصري بمقدار 1% اعتباراً من يوم الثلاثاء 27 مايو/أيار.قرر البنكان أيضاً وقف إصدار شهادات الادخار الدولارية ذات العائد المدفوع مقدماً بالجنيه المصري.كان البنك المركزي المصري CBE قد خفض معدلات الفائدة بمقدار 1% يوم الخميس الماضي 22 مايو أيار.
قال الرئيس التنفيذي للبنك الأهلي المصري، محمد الإتربي، إن لجنة السياسات النقدية اجتمعت صباح اليوم وقررت تخفيض معدلات الفائدة على الشهادة ذات العائد الشهري لأجل 3 سنوات بمقدار 1%.
مقتطفات إضافيةقررت اللجنة إيقاف إصدار الشهادات الدولارية ذات العائد الممنوح بالجنيه المصري.

سوف تُصبح هذه التغييرات سارية اعتباراً من يوم الثلاثاء 27 مايو/أيار الحالي من خلال جميع فروع البنك وتطبيقاته الإلكترونية.

قررت لجنة الأصول والخصوم في بنك مصر، خلال اجتماعها يوم أمس، إيقاف إصدار شهادات الادخار الدولارية ذات العائد المدفوع مقدماً بالجنيه المصري وخفض العائد على شهادات الادخار بالجنيه المصري بمقدار 1%.

تأتي هذه القرارات في إطار قرار البنك المركزي المصري بتخفيض معدلات الفائدة على الإيداع والإقراض بمقدار 1%، وسوف تدخل تلك التعديلات حيز التنفيذ أيضاً اعتباراً من يوم الثلاثاء 27 مايو/أيار 2025.

تخفيض العائد على الأوعية الادخارية ذات العائد المتغير اعتباراً من 25 مايو/أيار الجاري.
من الجدير بالذكر أن لجنة السياسة النقدية في البنك المركزي المصري CBE قد خفضت معدلات الفائدة بمقدار 1% في اجتماعها يوم الخميس الماضي، لتنخفض معدلات الفائدة على الإقراض إلى 25% ومعدلات الفائدة على الإيداع إلى 24%، وكذلك معدلات الفائدة على الإقراض والخصم إلى 24.5% في البنك المركزي المصري CBE.
رد فعل السوق
من المفترض أن يصب خفض معدلات الفائدة على شهادات الإدخار في صالح الاستثمار في البورصة المصرية، وبالتالي يمدد مؤشر البورصة المصرية الرئيسي EGX 30 الارتفاع للجلسة الخامسة على التوالي في وقت مبكر من اليوم، مرتفعاً بنسبة 0.41% إلى منطقة 32156، في وقت كتابة هذا التقرير.
يقترب المؤشر من مواجهة منطقة مقاومة رئيسية عند أعلى مستوياته خلال 14 شهراً عند منطقة 32480، المسجلة في 5 مايو/أيار 2025، وذلك بعد الارتداد من منطقة 31317 (أدنى مستوياته خلال 5 أسابيع، المتوسط المتحرك البسيط 55 يوماً) خلال الأسبوع الماضي.
الرسم البياني اليومي لمؤشر البورصة المصرية الرئيسي EGX 30

13:03 USD/JPY recovery stalls below 143.00, despite the brighter market mood
The positive impact of the de-escalation of Trump’s latest trade rift with the European Union has had a limited positive impact on the US Dollar.

12:58 GBP/USD: Overbought conditions suggest any advance is unlikely to reach 1.3600 – UOB Group
Strong momentum indicates further Pound Sterling (GBP) strength; overbought conditions suggest any advance is unlikely to reach 1.3600. In the longer run, upward momentum remains strong; the next objective is 1.3635, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Strong momentum indicates further Pound Sterling (GBP) strength; overbought conditions suggest any advance is unlikely to reach 1.3600. In the longer run, upward momentum remains strong; the next objective is 1.3635, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Upward momentum remains strong24-HOUR VIEW: "Following last Thursday’s price action, we indicated on Friday that 'The price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect consolidation today, most likely within a range of 1.3375/1.3450.' We did not expect GBP to surge to 1.3550. While strong upward momentum indicates further GBP strength, overbought conditions suggest that any advance is unlikely to reach 1.3600. Note that there is another resistance level at 1.3570. On the downside, any intraday pullback is likely to hold above 1.3475, with minor support at 1.3505." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our GBP outlook to positive in the middle of last week (see annotations in the chart below). In our latest narrative from last Thursday (22 May, spot at 1.3420), we indicated that 'momentum indicators continue to point to GBP upside, and the next technical target is at 1.3500.' GBP broke above 1.3500 last Friday, reaching a high of 1.3550. Upward momentum remains strong, and the next objective is 1.3635. We will continue to expect GBP strength as long as 1.3420 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.3340) is not breached."

12:53 EUR/USD: Restraint bulls – OCBC
Euro (EUR) saw whippy trade on Friday, falling at first in reaction to Trump’s threat of 50% tariff on EU goods. But losses were erased amid broad USD weakness. EUR was last seen at 1.1379 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Euro (EUR) saw whippy trade on Friday, falling at first in reaction to Trump’s threat of 50% tariff on EU goods. But losses were erased amid broad USD weakness. EUR was last seen at 1.1379 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Risks somewhat skewed towards upside"EU trade chief Sefcovic said that the 27-member bloc is committed to securing a trade deal with US based on respect not threat. The EU remains committed to securing a deal that works for both EU-US. But Trump expressed impatience with the slow progress on negotiations and is looking to raise tariff on EU on 1 Jun (which was later extended to 9 July)." "Bearish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI rose towards near overbought conditions. Risks somewhat skewed towards upside but we watch price action, which appear to be rather restraint relative to other FX. Resistance at 1.1420/30 levels. Decisive break puts next resistance at 1.1570 (recent high).""Failing which, the pair may revert to trading recent range. Support at 1.1280 (21 DMA), 1.1235 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 low to high) and 1.1150 (50 DMA)."

12:50 Oil: OPEC+ supply in focus – ING
The Oil market is trading firmer this morning after President Trump said he would delay the deadline for tariffs on EU goods until 9 July. This is after announcing late last week that the US would impose 50% tariffs starting 1 June.

The Oil market is trading firmer this morning after President Trump said he would delay the deadline for tariffs on EU goods until 9 July. This is after announcing late last week that the US would impose 50% tariffs starting 1 June. The extension comes after a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Meanwhile, Russia stepped up its attacks on Ukraine, prompting Trump to say that he’s considering sanctions against Moscow, which could put Russian energy flows at risk, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Lots of noise this week ahead of the OPEC+ meeting "The lower Oil price environment continues to result in reduced drilling activity in the US. Baker Hughes data shows that active rigs fell by 8 last week to 465. This is the fourth consecutive week of declines, leaving the rig count at its lowest since November 2021. Frac spread count data from Primary Vision also shows a further slowdown in completion activity. The slowdown in activity is no surprise, considering West Texas Intermediate (WTI ) forward prices are averaging a little over $60/bbl for the remainder of this year. Also, calendar 2026 prices are averaging similar levels. The industry needs, on average, $65/bbl to drill a new well profitably, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve’s quarterly energy survey.""The latest positioning data shows that speculators increased their net long in ICE Brent by 12,185 lots over the last reporting week to 163,329 lots as of last Tuesday. This might be due to fading hopes of an Iranian nuclear deal. Positioning data shows that, while we saw some fresh longs entering the markets, with 21,892 lots of fresh buying, some speculators are selling the market. The gross short has increased by 9,707 lots.""We’re likely to hear lots of noise this week ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, 1 June, where the group will decide on output policy for July. Last week, there were suggestions that the group is considering another sizable supply increase. We’re assuming in our balance sheet that the group will agree to increase output by another 411k b/d in July. This should keep the market well supplied over the second half of this year."

12:39 EUR/USD: Has a chance to test the major resistance at 1.1400 – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) could test the major resistance at 1.1400; a sustained rise above this level is unlikely. In the longer run, the likelihood of EUR breaking above 1.1400 is increasing; the next resistance is nearby at 1.1435, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Euro (EUR) could test the major resistance at 1.1400; a sustained rise above this level is unlikely. In the longer run, the likelihood of EUR breaking above 1.1400 is increasing; the next resistance is nearby at 1.1435, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. A sustained rise above 1.1400 is unlikely24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR dropped to 1.1253 last Thursday. On Friday, we highlighted that 'despite the decline, there has been no clear increase in downward momentum.' We added, 'The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, expected to be between 1.1255 and 1.1325.' Instead of trading in a range, EUR soared to 1.1374, dropped sharply, but briefly, before recovering to end the day at 1.1365 (+0.74%). Although the sharp drop has slowed the upward momentum somewhat, EUR could test the major resistance at 1.1400 today. Based on the current momentum, a sustained rise above this level is unlikely. The next resistance at 1.1435 is also unlikely to come under threat. Support levels are at 1.1350 and 1.1325." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (22 May, spot at 1.1325), we indicated that 'the price action suggests further EUR strength, with 1.1400 now in focus.' We added, 'to keep the momentum going, EUR must hold above 1.1235 (‘strong support’ level).' On Friday, EUR rose to 1.1374. Given the improving momentum, the likelihood of EUR breaking above 1.1400 is increasing. Should EUR break above 1.1400, there is a relatively nearby resistance at 1.1435. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level is currently at 1.1275, up from 1.1235 previously."

12:34 Silver price today: Silver broadly unchanged, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

12:34 GBP/JPY bounces up on risk appetite and approaches 194.20 resistance area
Trump’s decision to pause tariffs on the EU intel on July 9 has boosted risk appetite on a light trading session on Monday, with UK markets closed for the Spring Bank holiday.The de-escalation of the EU-US trade rift has soothed investors, wary of a severe blow to international trade, which would si

12:27 Gold edges down as Trump extends deadline for EU tariffs
Gold (XAU/USD) price slips on Monday towards $3,325 at the time of writing, partly erasing Friday’s gains. The small dip comes after United States (US) President Donald Trump announced he would extend to July 9 the deadline for the European Union (EU) to face 50% tariffs.

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Gold Price Technical Analysis: Tariff pause doesn’t mean a changeGold takes a step back as investors flee to risk assets following the agreement between Trump and von der Leyen to continue to negotiate about trade. Still, the delay is only a minor one, by just a month, and brokering a trade agreement between the two blocs is nearly impossible to do in such a short time span.. Therefore, these headlines need to be seen as brief injections of reliefs within an overall narrative that is still supportive for Gold due to heightened uncertainty. On the upside, the R1 resistance at $3,386 is the first level to look out for as resistance. The R2 resistance at $3,415 follows not far behind and could open the door for a return to the $3,440 round level and potentially further course to new all-time highs at $3,500. On the other side, some thick-layered support emerges in case the Gold price declines. On the downside, the daily S1 support comes in at $3,307, safeguarding the $3,300 big figure. Some intermediary support could come from the S2 support at $3,258. Further below, there is a technical pivotal level at $3,245, roughly converging with the S2 support at $3,240.
XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

12:15 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD steadies around $33.50 due to weaker safe-haven demand
Silver price (XAG/USD) remains steady after registering more than 1% gains in the previous session, trading around $33.40 per troy ounce during the European hours on Monday.

11:41 WTI Oil consolidates above $61.30 on easing global trade fears and geopolitical tensions
Oil prices are standing comfortably above $61.30, supported by US President Trump’s decision to put tariffs on Eurozone imports on hold until July 9th and escalating tensions in Gaza, but oversupply worries are limiting gains.Trump backed off on Friday’s threat to impose 50% levies on EU imports fro

11:33 AUD/JPY advances to near 93.00 as risk sentiment improves due to easing US-EU tensions
AUD/JPY extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 93.00 during the European hours on Monday. The risk sentiment improves US President Donald Trump extended the 50% tariff deadline on the European Union (EU) from June 1 to July 9.

11:11 Pound Sterling outperforms US Dollar on renewed concerns over Greenback’s credibility
The Pound Sterling (GBP) posts a fresh three-year high near 1.3600 against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week, amid holidays in the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US) markets on account of the Spring Bank Holiday and Memorial Day, respectively.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling refreshes a three-year high near 1.3600 against the US Dollar due to US President Trump’s ever-changing tariff announcements on the EU. Trump threatens to impose 25% duties on Apple for not manufacturing in the US.Traders see the BoE reducing interest rates just once in the remainder of the year.The Pound Sterling (GBP) posts a fresh three-year high near 1.3600 against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week, amid holidays in the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US) markets on account of the Spring Bank Holiday and Memorial Day, respectively. The GBP/USD pair, trading around 1.3567 at the time of writing on Monday, has extended the upside as the US Dollar slides further after “ever-changing” tariff announcements by US President Donald Trump on imports from the European Union (EU) have renewed concerns over its safe-haven appeal.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slumps to near 98.70, the lowest level seen in a month.During the weekend, Trump suspended 50% tariffs on the EU until July 9, which were expected to become effective from June 1. His decision came after discussions with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. "We had a very nice call, and I agreed to move it," Trump affirmed and added, "She said we will rapidly get together and see if we can work something out," Reuters reported.On Friday, the US President imposed 50% flat tariffs on imports from the old continent after Brussels sent a not-so-good trade proposal to Washington. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also warned that the EU is “not negotiating in good faith” in an interview with Fox News. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling gains as traders reassess BoE dovish betsThe Pound Sterling gains against the US Dollar as the latter suffers from erratic announcements by Washington on its tariff policies. Though the decision by US President Trump to postpone additional import duties has provided relief to European and the US markets, investors continue to doubt the credibility of the Greenback. During European trading hours, S&P 500 futures are up over 1%.Another reason behind weakness in the US Dollar is Donald Trump’s 25% tariff threat to Apple and other smartphone manufacturers for not manufacturing in the US. Investors see the event as an assault by the administration on the autonomy of the private sector, potentially dampening business confidence.Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continue to warn about potential stagflation risks in the wake of new economic policies announced by Washington. “There’s no question that the shock of tariffs is stagflationary,” Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said in an interview with Bloomberg TV earlier in the day. Kashkari guided that any monetary policy adjustment is unlikely, at least before September, as officials seek more clarity on how new policies will influence the economic outlook. “Uncertainty is something that is top of the mind for the Fed and US businesses, and we’re trying to navigate where inflation and the labor market are going,” he added.Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling is also outperforming its other peers, except antipodeans, during European trading hours on Monday. The British currency gains as financial market participants reassess expectations for the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook after the release of the stronger-than-projected growth in the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales data for April.Last week, the UK CPI report showed that the headline inflation rose at a robust pace of 3.5% on year against 2.6% growth seen in April. In the same period, inflation in the services sector, which is closely tracked by BoE officials, accelerated to 5.4% from the prior release of 4.7%. Meanwhile, Retail Sales grew strongly by 1.2% on month, compared to estimates of 0.2% and 0.1% growth seen in March. Theoretically, hot inflation and strong Retail Sales data discourage BoE officials from lowering interest rates, a scenario that is favorable for the Pound Sterling.According to a report from Reuters, the futures market shows traders see UK rates falling by around 38 basis points (bps) by the end of this year, which would imply one 25 bps interest rate cut and a roughly 50/50 chance of a second.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling jumps to near 1.3600The Pound Sterling posts a fresh three-year high around 1.3600 against the US Dollar on Monday. The near-term trend of the GBP/USD pair remains bullish as all short-to-long term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises to near 67.00, indicating a strong bullish momentum. On the upside, the 13 January 2022 high of 1.3750 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the April 28 high of 1.3445 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:50 NZD/USD rallies further to test 0.6030 high on risk appetite
US President Trump’s decision to temporarily suspend 50% tariffs on EU products is boosting investors’ appetite for risk on Monday.

10:46 USD/CAD falls to near 1.3700 as traders expect BoC to hold rates in June
USD/CAD continues its losing streak that began on May 19, trading around 1.3710 during the early European hours on Monday.

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The Canadian Dollar (CAD) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) as domestic retail sales rose for a second straight month in April, indicating strength in consumer sentiment despite an aggressive trade war between the United States (US) and Canada.The stronger retail sales data, along with April’s hot inflation data, raised the expectations of the Bank of Canada (BoC) to hold interest rates in the upcoming June meeting instead of another 25 basis points rate cut. This has provided support for the Canadian Dollar and undermined the USD/CAD pair.Additionally, the US Dollar struggles amid rising uncertainty surrounding the US economy. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is extending its losses and trading around 98.90.During the week, Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill” will go through the Senate floor after the Memorial Day holiday on Monday. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) noted that Trump’s bill is expected to increase the deficit by $3.8 billion, as it would deliver tax breaks on tip income and US-manufactured car loans.On Sunday, US Senator Ron Johnson said on CNN, "I think we have enough votes to stop the process until the President gets serious about spending reduction and reducing the deficit.” Johnson added, “My primary focus now is spending. This is completely unacceptable. Current projections are a $2.2 trillion per year deficit.” Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

10:05 EUR/GBP is struggling to regain the 0.8400 level despite the pause on EU tariffs
The Euro ticked up from the nearly two-month low hit on Friday, but it remains unable to post a significant recovery despite the upbeat news on the US tariffs’ domain.

10:03 Forex Today: US Dollar continues to weaken to start week
Here is what you need to know on Monday, May 26:

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Stock and bond markets in the US will remain closed in observance of the Memorial Day holiday on Monday. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.37% -0.38% 0.14% -0.27% -0.50% -0.62% -0.09% EUR 0.37% 0.00% 0.57% 0.11% -0.11% -0.25% 0.30% GBP 0.38% -0.01% 0.23% 0.10% -0.12% -0.25% 0.31% JPY -0.14% -0.57% -0.23% -0.42% -0.66% -0.84% -0.25% CAD 0.27% -0.11% -0.10% 0.42% -0.22% -0.35% 0.21% AUD 0.50% 0.11% 0.12% 0.66% 0.22% -0.17% 0.43% NZD 0.62% 0.25% 0.25% 0.84% 0.35% 0.17% 0.56% CHF 0.09% -0.30% -0.31% 0.25% -0.21% -0.43% -0.56% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). President Trump said on Friday that he is recommending a "straight 50% tariff" on imports from the European Union (EU), adding that their discussions were going nowhere. Additionally, he noted that he was planning to impose tariffs on Apple iPhones not manufactured in the US and suggested that they could do something similar with Samsung products. The USD Index extended its slide on Friday and lost nearly 2% for the week. President Trump announced on Sunday that he agreed to an extension on the 50% tariff deadline on the EU until July 9 after a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Nevertheless, the USD Index continues to stretch lower early Monday and was last seen trading at its lowest level in a month near 98.80, losing about 0.3% on the day. Meanwhile, US Senator Ron Johnson told CNN News on Sunday that he thinks that they will have enough votes to stop President Trump's spending/tax cut bill until he gets serious about spending reduction and reducing the deficit.EUR/USD benefits from the broad-based USD weakness and trades at a fresh multi-week high above 1.1400 in the European morning on Monday. Later in the session, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to deliver a speech.GBP/USD extends its rally after gaining nearly 2% in the previous week and trades at its highest level since February 2022 above 1.3550.USD/JPY stays relatively quiet and fluctuates in a tight channel below 143.00 after losing more than 2% last week.Gold capitalized on safe-haven flows and registered impressive gains last week. XAU/USD corrects lower early Monday and trades below $3,350.USD/CAD stays under bearish pressure following the previous week's sharp decline and trades below 1.3700 for the first time in 2025.AUD/USD preserves its bullish momentum after rising more than 1% on Friday and trades at a fresh 2025-high above 0.6500. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

10:02 USD/CHF remains on the defensive near 0.8200 on US fiscal concerns
The USD/CHF pair remains on the defensive around 0.8200 during the early European trading hours on Monday. US trade policy uncertainty and concerns over fiscal health drag the US Dollar (USD) lower against the Swiss Franc (CHF).

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US fiscal concerns exert some selling pressure on the US Dollar. Geopolitical risks and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war support the Swiss Franc, a safe-haven currency. The USD/CHF pair remains on the defensive around 0.8200 during the early European trading hours on Monday. US trade policy uncertainty and concerns over fiscal health drag the US Dollar (USD) lower against the Swiss Franc (CHF). Investors await the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday, which might offer some hints about the interest rate path. Softer-than-expected US inflation reports last week and concerns over fiscal health lift bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will step in to support the US economy. This, in turn, exerts some selling pressure on the Greenback. Markets expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut twice this year, with the next move not happening until September. Investors will also take more cues from the preliminary reading of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - Price Index for April. In case of a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could help limit the USD’s losses in the near term. Meanwhile, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Swiss Franc. Ukrainian officials reported early Sunday that a massive Russian drone-and-missile attack targeted Kyiv and other regions in the country for a second consecutive night, killing at least 12 people and injuring dozens. Officials described it as the largest aerial assault since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

09:30 Switzerland Employment Level (QoQ) down to 5.512M in 1Q from previous 5.534M
Switzerland Employment Level (QoQ) down to 5.512M in 1Q from previous 5.534M

09:23 US Dollar Index hits a fresh one-month low below 99.00 as risk appetite improves
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has opened the week in the same weak tone seen during the last one.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) has opened the week in the same weak tone seen during the last one. An improved market sentiment, after US President Donald Trump backtracked on his threat to impose 50% levies on EU imports, has boosted the Euro and risk-sensitive currencies, to the detriment of the US Dollar.

The DXY, which measures the value of the Greenback against the six most traded currencies, reached a fresh one-month low of 98.70 during Monday’s Asian Trading session. It is nearing the multi-year low of 97.95, hit in late April.

Donald Trump announced a pause on the 50% tariffs plan from June 1st after a phone call with EU Commission president Von der Leyen in which both leaders agreed to give some time to reach a good deal.
Tariffs' pause boosts risk appetite
The market has welcomed the news, amid easing concerns of a severe blow to global economic growth. The combined trade between the US and the EU accounts for 30% of the global GDP, and reciprocal tariffs between the two, combined with the 30% tariffs on China, would pose a significant weigh on global growth.

Beyond that, President Trump affirmed that his sweeping Tax Bill will go through significant changes in the Senate, which has contributed to soothing investors, wary about the bill’s impact on the US fiscal stability, and has provided an additional boost to risk appetite.

With the USD losing ground against riskier assets, but also against safe havens like the Yen and the Swiss Franc, the DXY depreciated 0.3% on the day and nearly 3% from early May highs. Trading volumes are likely to remain light with US markets closed on a bank holiday.

Later this week, the minutes of the latest Fed meeting and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data will provide further fundamental background for US Dollar traders.
US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.41% -0.46% 0.06% -0.26% -0.59% -0.67% -0.10% EUR 0.41% -0.04% 0.50% 0.15% -0.17% -0.25% 0.33% GBP 0.46% 0.04% 0.23% 0.19% -0.13% -0.21% 0.38% JPY -0.06% -0.50% -0.23% -0.33% -0.66% -0.80% -0.17% CAD 0.26% -0.15% -0.19% 0.33% -0.31% -0.40% 0.19% AUD 0.59% 0.17% 0.13% 0.66% 0.31% -0.12% 0.51% NZD 0.67% 0.25% 0.21% 0.80% 0.40% 0.12% 0.59% CHF 0.10% -0.33% -0.38% 0.17% -0.19% -0.51% -0.59% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

09:02 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.57 per barrel, down from Friday’s close at $61.60.

09:00 Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous -0.3% to -2.4% in April
Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous -0.3% to -2.4% in April

09:00 Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM): -1.6% (April) vs -3%
Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM): -1.6% (April) vs -3%

08:56 EUR/USD strengthens above 1.1400 as Trump delayed 50% tariffs on EU to July 9
The EUR/USD pair gathers strength to near 1.1415 during the early European session on Monday. The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the Greenback as US President Donald Trump extends the deadline for 50% EU tariffs until July 9.

08:26 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Climbs beyond mid-162.00s, bulls have the upper hand while above 200-day SMA
The EUR/JPY cross gains strong positive traction at the start of a new week and snaps a three-day losing streak to the 161.00 neighborhood, or a nearly one-month low set on Friday.

08:23 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Hits fresh 39-month highs near 1.3600
The GBP/USD pair extends its winning streak for the second successive session, trading around 1.3580 during Monday's Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that a bullish bias prevails as the pair moves upwards within an ascending channel pattern.

08:02 Singapore Industrial Production (MoM) increased to 5.3% in April from previous -3.6%
Singapore Industrial Production (MoM) increased to 5.3% in April from previous -3.6%

08:02 Silver Price Forecast: Bullish outlook remains in play near $33.50
The Silver price (XAG/USD) trades with mild gains around $33.50 during the early European session on Monday. The escalating geopolitical tensions along with the weaker Dollar (USD) provide some support to the safe-haven currency like the Japanese Yen (JPY).

08:01 Singapore Industrial Production (YoY): 5.9% (April) vs 5.8%
Singapore Industrial Production (YoY): 5.9% (April) vs 5.8%

08:01 Gold price trades with mild negative bias below two-week top touched on Friday
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower during the Asian session on Monday in reaction to US President Donald Trump's decision to delay the implementation of tariffs on the European Union (EU).

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US fiscal concerns and Fed rate cut bets undermine the USD, lending support to the commodity.Any further slide could be seen as a buying opportunity amid a bullish fundamental backdrop. Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower during the Asian session on Monday in reaction to US President Donald Trump's decision to delay the implementation of tariffs on the European Union (EU). This, in turn, held back bulls from placing fresh bullish bets around the precious metal, especially after last week's sharp rally of nearly 5%. Any meaningful corrective decline, however, seems elusive in the wake of worries over the worsening US fiscal health. This, along with bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs further in 2025, drags the US Dollar (USD) to a fresh monthly low and should offer support to the non-yielding yellow metal. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical risk stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East should contribute to limiting deeper losses for the Gold price. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the XAU/USD's recent upward trajectory witnessed over the past week or so has run out of steam and positioning for deeper losses. Traders might also opt to wait for this week's release of the FOMC meeting minutes and important US macro data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is undermined by trade optimism; downside potential seems limitedIn a mega U-turn, US President Donald Trump delayed the implementation of a 50% tariff on the European Union from June 1 until July 9. Earlier on Sunday Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said that the EU was ready to move quickly in trade talks with the U.S. but needed more time to strike a deal. Trump’s sweeping tax cuts and spending bill, which would add an estimated $4 trillion to the federal primary deficit over the next decade, was passed in the lower house last week and will be voted on in the Senate this week. This adds to worries that the US budget deficit could worsen at a faster pace than previously expected.Softer-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) released earlier this week, along with a sluggish growth outlook, lifted bets that the Federal Reserve will eventually step in to support the economy. Traders are now pricing in at least two 25 basis points interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said early this Monday that extended tariffs raise the risk of stagflation. The question now is a scale of stagflation, Kashkari added further. Meanwhile, the US Dollar prolongs a two-week-old downtrend and drops to a fresh monthly low, which, in turn, lends additional support to the Gold price. Meanwhile, Russian forces launched a massive drone and missile attack across Ukrainian cities, marking the war's largest aerial attack to date. Trump called the attack unacceptable and said that he was considering new sanctions against Russia. Moreover, the continuous Israeli strikes on Gaza keep the geopolitical risk in play. The focus now shifts to FOMC minutes, due on Wednesday, which will look for cues about the rate-cut path. Traders will further confront the release of key US macro data – Durable Goods Order on Wednesday, the Prelim GDP, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Gold price bullish technical setup backs emergence of dip-buying around $3,325 From a technical perspective, the recent move higher along an ascending trendline and positive oscillators on hourly/daily charts validates the near-term positive outlook for the Gold price. Hence, any subsequent slide is more likely to find decent support near the said trendline, currently pegged near the $3,325-3,324 region. A convincing break below, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the XAU/USD to the $3,300 round figure en route to the $3,283 area, or the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively should pave the way for deeper losses. On the flip side, momentum beyond Friday's swing high, around the $3,366 area, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and allow the Gold price to reclaim the $3,400 round figure. The next relevant resistance is seen near the $3,430 region, above which the XAU/USD could aim to challenge the all-time peak, around the $3,500 psychological mark touched in April, with some intermediate hurdle around the $3,465-3,470 zone. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

08:00 Japan Leading Economic Index registered at 108.1 above expectations (107.7) in March
Japan Leading Economic Index registered at 108.1 above expectations (107.7) in March

08:00 Japan Coincident Index fell from previous 116 to 115.9 in March
Japan Coincident Index fell from previous 116 to 115.9 in March

07:46 NZD/USD moves above 0.6000 despite NZIER’s recommendation for a rate cut
NZD/USD hits fresh six-month highs, with trading around 0.6030 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair continues its winning streak for the second successive day as the US Dollar remains under downward pressure amid rising United States (US)-debt concerns.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 9,166.29 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,188.94 it cost on Friday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 106,913.80 per tola from INR 107,177.90 per tola on friday. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,166.29 10 Grams 91,662.90 Tola 106,913.80 Troy Ounce 285,103.70 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:16 FX option expiries for May 26 NY cut
FX option expiries for May 26 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for May 26 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1300 821mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 142.00 608m143.00 735m144.00 1bUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4000 886mNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.5980 513m

07:08 China's Li: Weighing new policy tools as economic and trade order is under severe impact
China’s Premier Li Qiang spoke in a symposium with Chinese firms in Jakarta over the weekend, with the key comments noted below.

China’s Premier Li Qiang spoke in a symposium with Chinese firms in Jakarta over the weekend, with the key comments noted below.“China is weighing new policy tools in the face of an international economic and trade order that is under severe impact.”"The fragmentation of industrial and supply chains has deepened, and trade barriers have increased, which has had a great impact on the economic development of all countries."“China is studying new policy tools, including some "unconventional measures", which will be launched as the situation changes.”“China will continue strengthening economic cooperation with more countries.”

06:43 WTI holds gains above around $61.50 due to easing US-EU trade concerns
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price is trading around $61.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Monday, extending its gains for the second successive day. Crude Oil prices gain ground amid easing concerns over a trade war between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).

06:20 Fed’s Kashkari: Uncertainty is top of the mind for Fed, US businesses
Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari said in his speech in Tokyo early Monday that “uncertainty is top of the mind for Fed, US businesses.”

06:17 US Senator Johnson: We have enough votes to stop Trump’s tax cuts bill
Speaking to CNN News on Sunday, US Senator Ron Johnson said, "I think we have enough (votes) to stop the process until the president gets serious about spending reduction and reducing the deficit.”

Speaking to CNN News on Sunday, US Senator Ron Johnson said, "I think we have enough (votes) to stop the process until the president gets serious about spending reduction and reducing the deficit.”“My primary focus now is spending. This is completely unacceptable. Current projections are $2.2 trillion per year deficit,” he said.Johnson further noted, “there should be a goal of this Republican Senate to reduce the deficit, not increase it. We’re increasing it.”US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax cuts bill was passed in the lower house last week and will be voted on in the Senate this week.

06:12 USD/CAD slides below 1.3700 mark, fresh YTD trough amid sustained USD selling
The USD/CAD pair prolongs its downtrend witnessed over the past week or so and attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Monday.

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The USD/CAD pair prolongs its downtrend witnessed over the past week or so and attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Monday. The downward momentum drags spot prices below the 1.3700 round figure, to the lowest level since October 2024 and is sponsored by a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, drops to a nearly one-month low amid worries about the worsening US fiscal situation and dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. In fact, a sweeping tax cut and spending bill backed by US President Donald Trump is expected to add around $4 trillion to the nation's deficit over the next 10 years and swell the federal government's debt. Meanwhile, the softer US Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index (PPI) released earlier this month pointed to signs of easing inflationary pressures. This, in turn, reaffirmed market bets that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs further by the end of this year to support the economy. This is seen as another factor undermining the USD and exerting downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. The Canadian Dollar (CAD), on the other hand, continues to draw support from last week's hotter-than-expected Canadian core inflation figures, which dashed hopes for a Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate cut in June. This, to a larger extent, overshadows a modest intraday downtick in Crude Oil prices – which tends to undermine the commodity-linked Loonie – and supports prospects for a further USD/CAD depreciation. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

06:01 USD/INR holds steady despite softer US Dollar
The Indian Rupee (INR) flat lines on Monday after hitting its best performance in more than two years in the previous session. According to Bloomberg, the Indian currency’s biggest gain was seen after November 11, 2022, when it appreciated around 99 paise in a single day.

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The Indian Rupee trades on a flat note on the day after facing rejection from the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The USD/INR pair keeps the bearish vibe on the daily chart, supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the midline near 47.00. The initial support level for USD/INR is seen at the 85.00 psychological level. A break below this floor could set off a drop to 84.84, the low of May 12. A breach of this level could expose the next bearish targets at 84.05, the lower limit of the trend channel.On the upside, the immediate resistance level to watch is 85.58, the 100-day EMA. Any follow-through buying possibly sends the price back up to 85.80, the upper boundary of the trend channel. Further north, the next hurdle is located at 86.70, the high of April 9. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:55 Australian Dollar advances as US Dollar depreciates due to rising debt concerns
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to gain ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, marking fresh six-month highs. The AUD/USD pair receives support as the US Dollar remains under downward pressure amid rising uncertainty surrounding the United States (US) economy.

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The AUD/USD pair receives support as the US Dollar remains under downward pressure amid rising uncertainty surrounding the United States (US) economy.The AUD’s upside could be restrained due to dovish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook. Following the previous week’s 25 basis points interest rate cut by the RBA, Governor Michele Bullock mentioned that the central bank is prepared to take additional action if the economic outlook deteriorates sharply, raising the prospect of future rate cuts.The Aussie Dollar gained support from renewed optimism surrounding a 90-day US-China trade truce and hopes for further trade deals with other countries. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia will closely monitor further developments on US-China trade negotiations, as China is a major trading partner of Australia.Australian Dollar appreciates as US Dollar struggles due to fears over rising fiscal deficitThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is extending its losses and trading around 98.70. The Greenback struggles amid rising uncertainty surrounding the US economy. US markets will be closed due to the Memorial Day holiday.The US fiscal deficit could increase further when Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill” goes through the Senate floor, increasing the risk of bond yields staying higher for longer. Higher bond yields can keep borrowing costs higher for consumers, businesses, and governments.Trump’s bill is expected to increase the deficit by $3.8 billion, as it would deliver tax breaks on tip income and US-manufactured car loans, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that Trump’s latest tariff threats likely postpone changes to interest rates. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid noted that policymakers will gauge hard data before formulating interest rate decisions, and the Fed needs to be careful how much emphasis it puts on soft data.Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted on Thursday that markets are monitoring fiscal policy. Waller further stated that if tariffs are close to 10%, the economy would be in good shape for H2, and the Fed could be in a position to cut later in the year.The US Dollar continues to struggle after Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. This move aligns with similar downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011. Moody’s now projects US federal debt to climb to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the budget deficit expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP. This deterioration is attributed to rising debt-servicing costs, expanding entitlement programs, and falling tax revenues.China’s Commerce Ministry said last week that US measures on China’s advanced chips are ‘typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism’ and impede the stability of the global semiconductor industry chain and supply chain. Chinese authorities asked the United States to swiftly correct its wrong practices.Australian Dollar rises above 0.6500; posts fresh six-month highsAUD/USD is trading around 0.6530 on Monday with a persistent bullish bias. Daily technical indicators suggest that the pair rises above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) advances toward the 70 mark, both supporting an upward outlook.The AUD/USD pair has broken above the previous six-month high of 0.6515, recorded on December 2, 2024. This successful breach would provide support for the pair to approach the seven-month high at 0.6687, recorded in November 2024.On the downside, the nine-day EMA of 0.6456 would act as an immediate support, followed by the 50-day EMA near 0.6378. The decisive break below these levels would weaken the short- and medium-term price momentum and open the doors for the pair to navigate the region around 0.5914, the lowest since March 2020.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.39% -0.42% -0.11% -0.25% -0.56% -0.62% -0.12% EUR 0.39% -0.03% 0.32% 0.14% -0.17% -0.22% 0.28% GBP 0.42% 0.03% 0.02% 0.17% -0.14% -0.19% 0.33% JPY 0.11% -0.32% -0.02% -0.15% -0.47% -0.58% -0.02% CAD 0.25% -0.14% -0.17% 0.15% -0.29% -0.36% 0.15% AUD 0.56% 0.17% 0.14% 0.47% 0.29% -0.09% 0.47% NZD 0.62% 0.22% 0.19% 0.58% 0.36% 0.09% 0.52% CHF 0.12% -0.28% -0.33% 0.02% -0.15% -0.47% -0.52% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

05:45 Japanese Yen advances to fresh monthly peak against USD
The Japanese Yen (JPY) reverses a modest Asian session downtick against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) and touches a fresh monthly high during the Asian session on Monday.

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Hopes for an eventual US-Japan trade deal, BoJ rate hike bets and geopolitical risks underpin the JPY. US fiscal concerns and dovish Fed expectations weigh on the USD, exerting pressure on USD/JPY.The Japanese Yen (JPY) reverses a modest Asian session downtick against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) and touches a fresh monthly high during the Asian session on Monday. Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Sunday that he aims to achieve a trade agreement with the US during the Group of Seven (G7) summit on June 15. This comes on top of the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates and act as a tailwind for the JPY.Apart from this, rising geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East turn out to be another factor benefiting the JPY's relative safe-haven status against its American counterpart. Meanwhile, concerns about rising US fiscal deficit and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will eventually step in to support economic growth drag the USD to a near one-month low. This further contributes to the USD/JPY pair's slide. Japanese Yen bulls retain control amid trade optimism, hawkish BoJ expectationsFollowing a third round of Japan-US talks, Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Sunday that Tokyo aims to advance tariff talks with the US, with the goal of achieving an outcome during the Group of Seven summit next month. Moreover, Japan's top tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said that the schedule for the next Japan-US talks is being arranged and that he hopes to meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during his next visit.Friday's hotter-than-expected consumer inflation figures from Japan, along with expectations that higher wages will boost prices, keep the door open for further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan. In fact, BoJ officials recently showed a willingness to hike interest rates again if the economy and prices improve as projected. Investors, however, now seem convinced that policymakers will assess tariffs and trade flows before making the next move. On the geopolitical front, Russian forces launched a massive drone and missile attack across Ukrainian cities, marking the war's largest aerial attack to date. Speaking to reporters, US President Donald Trump called the attack unacceptable and said that he was considering new sanctions against Russia. Meanwhile, Israeli strikes over the past 24 hours killed at least 38 people in Gaza, including children. Israel had said earlier that it plans to seize full control of Gaza. Trump's sweeping tax cut and spending bill is expected to add around $4 trillion to the nation's deficit over the next 10 years and swell the federal government's debt. Moreover, traders have been pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs further this year. This, in turn, drags the US Dollar to a nearly one-month low and also benefits the lower-yielding JPY, which, in turn, supports prospects for a further USD/JPY depreciation. The focus now shifts to this week's important US macro releases – Durable Goods Order on Wednesday, followed by the Prelim GDP print and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Apart from this, the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics, which, along with Tokyo CPI on Friday, should provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair. USD/JPY seems vulnerable to slide further, last week’s breakdown below 143.00 in play
From a technical perspective, an intraday failure near the 143.00 round-figure mark validates last week's breakdown below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of April-May move higher. Adding to this, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining negative traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains to the downside. Some follow-through selling below the 142.00 mark will reaffirm the bearish outlook and drag spot prices below the 141.55 intermediate support, towards the 141.00 round figure. The subsequent downfall would expose the year-to-date low, or levels below the 140.00 psychological mark touched on April 22.On the flip side, the Asian session peak, around the 143.10 area, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which a bout of a short-covering move could lift the USD/JPY pair to the 143.65 region en route to the 144.00 round figure. The latter should act as a strong barrier, which, if cleared, could pave the way for a further recovery. However, the move higher might still be seen as a selling opportunity near the 144.80 zone and remain capped near the 145.00 psychological mark. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

04:29 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds below $3,350 as trade war eases
The Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to near $3,335 during the early Asian session on Monday. The de-escalation of the trade war provides some support to the yellow metal. The FOMC Minute will be the highlight later on Wednesday.

04:21 EUR/USD rises to near 1.1400 as Trump extends tariff deadline on EU imports
EUR/USD extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 1.1390 during the Asian hours on Monday. The Euro (EUR) gains ground as Bloomberg reported that US President Donald Trump agreed to extend the 50% tariff deadline on the European Union (EU) until July 9. On Sunday.

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The Euro (EUR) gains ground as Bloomberg reported that US President Donald Trump agreed to extend the 50% tariff deadline on the European Union (EU) until July 9. On Sunday. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen posted on social media that the EU was ready to move quickly in trade talks with the United States (US) but requires more time to reach a deal. US markets will be closed due to the Memorial Day holiday on Monday.On Friday, President Trump threatened in a post on Truth Social to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union as Brussels sent a not-so-good trade proposal to Washington. Trump said, "Our discussions with them are going nowhere! Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025.”Additionally, the EUR/USD pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) continues to lose ground due to the uncertainty surrounding US economy. US fiscal deficit could increase further when Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill” goes through the Senate floor, increasing the risk of bond yields staying higher for longer. Higher bond yields can keep borrowing costs higher for consumers, businesses and governments.US markets remains under pressure amid deteriorating US debt profile as Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. Moody’s now projects US federal debt to climb to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the budget deficit expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP.Fed officials continue to favor keeping rates on hold due to lingering uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies. On Friday, Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee said that Trump’s latest tariff threats likely postpone changes to interest rates. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid noted that policymakers will gauge hard data before formulating interest rate decisions, and the Fed needs to be careful how much emphasis it puts on soft data. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1833 vs. 7.1919 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1833 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1919 and 7.1737 Reuters estimate.

03:59 GBP/USD advances beyond mid-1.3500s, fresh high since February 2022
The GBP/USD pair is seen building on last week's strong move up and gaining some follow-through positive traction during the Asian session on Monday. The momentum lifts spot prices beyond the 1.3550 level, to the highest level since February 2022, and is sponsored by a combination of factors.

03:31 Japan signals intent to reach tariff deal with US in June
Japan’s chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa indicated his aim to advance tariff talks with the United States in time for a June meeting between US President Donald Trump and Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, per Bloomberg.

03:08 Iran says discussions with US 'complicated' after fifth round of nuclear talks
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that discussions with the United States (US) over its nuclear program were complicated as the fifth round of talks concluded in Rome.

02:52 BoC’s Macklem: Trump’s tariffs the “biggest headwind”
Bank of Canada Governor Macklem spoke with the New York Times, saying that US President Donald Trump’s tariffs are the biggest headwind for the country.

02:35 Russia’s largest drone and missile attack on Ukraine kills at least 12
Ukrainian said early Sunday that a massive Russian drone-and-missile attack targeted Kyiv and other regions in the country for a second consecutive night, killing at least 12 people and injuring dozens.

02:17 US President Donald Trump extends deadline for 50% tariffs on EU goods to July 9
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he agreed to an extension on the 50% tariff deadline on the European Union (EU) until July 9 after a phone call with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, per Bloomberg.

02:10 AUD/USD extends upside to near 0.6500 amid weaker US Dollar
The AUD/USD pair extends the rally to around 0.6500 during the early Asian session on Monday. The persistent trade war fears and the ongoing “sell America” trend drag the US dollar (USD) lower and provide some support to the pair. US markets are closed due to the Memorial Day holiday on Monday.

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The ongoing “sell America” trend weighs on the US dollar broadly. RBA dovish rate cuts might cap the upside for the pair. The AUD/USD pair extends the rally to around 0.6500 during the early Asian session on Monday. The persistent trade war fears and the ongoing “sell America” trend drag the US dollar (USD) lower and provide some support to the pair. US markets are closed due to the Memorial Day holiday on Monday. Fed officials have said in recent weeks that they will keep rates on hold due to lingering uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee noted on Friday that Trump’s latest tariff threats have complicated policy and likely put off changes to interest rates. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said that the officials will lean on hard data in making interest rate decisions and the Fed needs to be careful how much emphasis it puts on soft data. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets have priced in nearly a 71% chance that the Fed will keep its interest rates steady through its next two meetings. Analysts expect the US central bank to cut twice this year, with the next move not happening until September.The renewed trade tensions and growing concerns around the US fiscal outlook continue to undermine the Greenback against the Aussie. The USD struggled to gain ground since Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. This move aligns with similar downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor’s in 2011.On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) dovish rate cuts might cap the upside for the Australian Dollar (AUD). The RBA decided to lower its cash rate from 4.15% to 3.85% last week, as widely expected. However, the Australian central bank expressed concern about the impact of tariffs on Australia's economy. The RBA will closely monitor Trump's tariff policy, especially with China, as China is a major trading partner of Australia. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

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22:06 AUD/USD pauses after reaching a six-month high The Australian Dollar (AUD) is consolidating within a narrow range against the US Dollar (USD) after reaching a six-month high early Monday. However, the pair retreated from the highs ahead of Tuesday’s key economic data.

21:53 Forex Today: Consumer confidence gauges take centre stage As market players digested news that President Trump backpedalled on his threats of levying 50% taxes on European products, the US Dollar (USD) stayed on the defensive in quite a poor start to the new trading week.

21:46 GBP/USD eases from multi-year high amid thin trading, BoE speeches eyed The British Pound (GBP) is trading sideways against the US Dollar (USD) after reaching its highest level in three years at the start of this week’s session. The GBP/USD pair surged to 1.3593 early in Monday’s session.

20:23 EUR/GBP remains conflicted ahead of Eurozone sentiment data The Euro (EUR) remains conflicted against its British Pound (GBP) counterpart on Monday, struggling to build sustained momentum despite an early attempt to recover last week’s losses.

20:22 USD/INR eases above 85.00 as Rupee trims gains amid easing trade tensions The Indian Rupee (INR) trims some of the earlier gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the USD/INR pair retreating slightly above 85.00 during the American trading hours.

18:17 USD/JPY steadies ahead of BoJ Ueda’s remarks USD/JPY is attempting a mild recovery after last week’s sell-off in the United States (US) bond market dragged the pair below the key psychological level of 144.00.

17:41 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Strives to hold 0.6500 for fresh rally The AUD/USD pair surrenders significant intraday gains after posting a fresh six-month high near 0.6540 on Monday. The Aussie pair gives back a majority of gains as the US Dollar (USD) recoups its early losses.

16:44 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Poise for fresh rally towards 0.6100 The NZD/USD pair posts a fresh six-and-a-half-month high near 0.6030 against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week.

16:17 EUR/CAD steadies as EU tariff delays and robust Canadian data drive mixed momentum The Euro (EUR) is firming against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on Monday, bolstered by easing trade tensions after the United States announced a delay in implementing new tariffs on European imports.

14:44 EUR/JPY jumps to near 163.00 as EU-US trade tensions de-escalate The EUR/JPY pair is up 0.45% to 162.60 in European trading hours on Monday, touches a high of 163.00 during the day.

14:35 GBP nears 1.36, highest since early 2022 – Scotiabank Pound Sterling (GBP) is modestly firmer on the session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:33 EUR probes 1.14 area on tariff relief – Scotiabank The EU’s tariff reprieve followed what the president called a 'very nice call' with Commission President von der Leyen over the weekend, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:31 CAD holds ground in low 1.37s – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) had a decent run lower last week, with the US Dollar's (USD’s) 1.6% drop through Friday leaving the CAD as one of the better-performing major currencies on the week.

14:23 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD pulls back to $3,325 with the bullish trend still intact Gold (XAU/USD) is trading lower on Monday, weighed by softer demand for safe havens.

13:59 GBP: Further glimmers of hope – Commerzbank In recent weeks, the Pound Sterling (GBP) has recovered significantly against the euro, with the exchange rate now standing at around 0.84 instead of 0.87.

13:58 EU spokesperson: EU's 'zero-for-zero' proposal still on table in talks with US A spokesperson for the European Commission said on Monday that the European Union's (EU) 'zero-for-zero' proposal is still on the table in tariff negotiations with the United States (US), per Reuters.

13:55 USD/CNH: Downward momentum has not increased significantly – UOB Group There is a chance for US Dollar (USD) to test 7.1650 vs Chinese Yuan (CNH); the major support at 7.1500 is unlikely to come into view.

13:46 EUR/USD rises as Trump takes U-turn on EU tariffs EUR/USD jumps above 1.1400 during European trading hours on Monday, the highest level seen this month. The major currency pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) falters on erratic statements coming from Washington regarding tariff policies.

13:38 USD/CHF Price Analysis: Rejection at 0.8225 keeps the 0.8200 support on focus The US Dollar has failed to break the 0,8225 resistance area, where the near-term descending channel meets a previous support, now turned resistance.

13:25 USD/JPY: Pace of decline may slow – OCBC USD/JPY extended its decline as Trump tariff threats ramped up demand for safe haven proxies, including JPY, CHF and Gold. USD/JPY was last at 142.85 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

13:19 GBP/USD: Room for gains – OCBC Pound Sterling (GBP) extended its run higher, to more than 3-year high as activity, inflation and PMI services data surprised to the upside. Pair was last at 1.3565, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

13:15 AUD/USD: To rise above the early-month high of 0.6515 – UOB Group There is scope for Australian Dollar (AUD) to rise above the early-month high of 0.6515 vs US Dollar (USD); any further advance is unlikely to reach 0.6550.

13:10 DXY: Pulled by gravity – OCBC US Dollar (USD) bounced at first when Trump threatened with tariffs last Friday. But the bounce did not last, and USD extended its weakness into Monday trade. The price action underscores a re-pricing of weak USD sentiment and confidence.

13:03 USD/JPY recovery stalls below 143.00, despite the brighter market mood The positive impact of the de-escalation of Trump’s latest trade rift with the European Union has had a limited positive impact on the US Dollar.

12:53 EUR/USD: Restraint bulls – OCBC Euro (EUR) saw whippy trade on Friday, falling at first in reaction to Trump’s threat of 50% tariff on EU goods. But losses were erased amid broad USD weakness. EUR was last seen at 1.1379 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

12:50 Oil: OPEC+ supply in focus – ING The Oil market is trading firmer this morning after President Trump said he would delay the deadline for tariffs on EU goods until 9 July. This is after announcing late last week that the US would impose 50% tariffs starting 1 June.

12:34 Silver price today: Silver broadly unchanged, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

12:15 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD steadies around $33.50 due to weaker safe-haven demand Silver price (XAG/USD) remains steady after registering more than 1% gains in the previous session, trading around $33.40 per troy ounce during the European hours on Monday.

10:50 NZD/USD rallies further to test 0.6030 high on risk appetite US President Trump’s decision to temporarily suspend 50% tariffs on EU products is boosting investors’ appetite for risk on Monday.

10:46 USD/CAD falls to near 1.3700 as traders expect BoC to hold rates in June USD/CAD continues its losing streak that began on May 19, trading around 1.3710 during the early European hours on Monday.

10:05 EUR/GBP is struggling to regain the 0.8400 level despite the pause on EU tariffs The Euro ticked up from the nearly two-month low hit on Friday, but it remains unable to post a significant recovery despite the upbeat news on the US tariffs’ domain.

10:03 Forex Today: US Dollar continues to weaken to start week Here is what you need to know on Monday, May 26:

09:30 Switzerland Employment Level (QoQ) down to 5.512M in 1Q from previous 5.534M Switzerland Employment Level (QoQ) down to 5.512M in 1Q from previous 5.534M

09:23 US Dollar Index hits a fresh one-month low below 99.00 as risk appetite improves The US Dollar Index (DXY) has opened the week in the same weak tone seen during the last one.

09:02 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.57 per barrel, down from Friday’s close at $61.60.

09:00 Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous -0.3% to -2.4% in April Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous -0.3% to -2.4% in April

09:00 Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM): -1.6% (April) vs -3% Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM): -1.6% (April) vs -3%

08:26 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Climbs beyond mid-162.00s, bulls have the upper hand while above 200-day SMA The EUR/JPY cross gains strong positive traction at the start of a new week and snaps a three-day losing streak to the 161.00 neighborhood, or a nearly one-month low set on Friday.

08:02 Singapore Industrial Production (MoM) increased to 5.3% in April from previous -3.6% Singapore Industrial Production (MoM) increased to 5.3% in April from previous -3.6%

08:01 Singapore Industrial Production (YoY): 5.9% (April) vs 5.8% Singapore Industrial Production (YoY): 5.9% (April) vs 5.8%

08:01 Gold price trades with mild negative bias below two-week top touched on Friday Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower during the Asian session on Monday in reaction to US President Donald Trump's decision to delay the implementation of tariffs on the European Union (EU).

08:00 Japan Leading Economic Index registered at 108.1 above expectations (107.7) in March Japan Leading Economic Index registered at 108.1 above expectations (107.7) in March

08:00 Japan Coincident Index fell from previous 116 to 115.9 in March Japan Coincident Index fell from previous 116 to 115.9 in March

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:16 FX option expiries for May 26 NY cut FX option expiries for May 26 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

07:08 China's Li: Weighing new policy tools as economic and trade order is under severe impact China’s Premier Li Qiang spoke in a symposium with Chinese firms in Jakarta over the weekend, with the key comments noted below.

06:20 Fed’s Kashkari: Uncertainty is top of the mind for Fed, US businesses Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari said in his speech in Tokyo early Monday that “uncertainty is top of the mind for Fed, US businesses.”

06:17 US Senator Johnson: We have enough votes to stop Trump’s tax cuts bill Speaking to CNN News on Sunday, US Senator Ron Johnson said, "I think we have enough (votes) to stop the process until the president gets serious about spending reduction and reducing the deficit.”

06:12 USD/CAD slides below 1.3700 mark, fresh YTD trough amid sustained USD selling The USD/CAD pair prolongs its downtrend witnessed over the past week or so and attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Monday.

05:45 Japanese Yen advances to fresh monthly peak against USD The Japanese Yen (JPY) reverses a modest Asian session downtick against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) and touches a fresh monthly high during the Asian session on Monday.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1833 vs. 7.1919 previous On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1833 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1919 and 7.1737 Reuters estimate.

03:31 Japan signals intent to reach tariff deal with US in June Japan’s chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa indicated his aim to advance tariff talks with the United States in time for a June meeting between US President Donald Trump and Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, per Bloomberg.

03:08 Iran says discussions with US 'complicated' after fifth round of nuclear talks Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that discussions with the United States (US) over its nuclear program were complicated as the fifth round of talks concluded in Rome.

02:52 BoC’s Macklem: Trump’s tariffs the “biggest headwind” Bank of Canada Governor Macklem spoke with the New York Times, saying that US President Donald Trump’s tariffs are the biggest headwind for the country.

02:35 Russia’s largest drone and missile attack on Ukraine kills at least 12 Ukrainian said early Sunday that a massive Russian drone-and-missile attack targeted Kyiv and other regions in the country for a second consecutive night, killing at least 12 people and injuring dozens.

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