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23:11 Mexican Peso set for weekly gains as weak US data offsets Banxico's rate cut
The Mexican Peso (MXN) erases its previous losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday and Is set to finish the week with gains.

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A day ago, Banco de Mexico (Banxico) reduced the main reference rate, though it failed to weigh on the Mexican currency, which has gained some steam following weak US economic data. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 19.47, down 0.09%.Banxico reduces rates, eyeing additional easing; US Consumer Sentiment deterioratesOn Thursday, Banxico unanimously decided to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) for the third straight meeting in 2025, and it has opened the door for additional cuts of the same magnitude. Although the Mexican institution reduced the rate differential to 400 bps with US Treasuries, a deterioration in US Consumer Sentiment drove the USD/MXN exchange rate lower.The University of Michigan (UoM) revealed that American consumers are growing increasingly pessimistic about the current state of the economy, as indicated by May’s poll. Additionally, inflation expectations had risen well above the Fed’s 2% target, which could pressure the US central bank, which has become cautious in assessing the impact of the Trump administration's controversial trade policies on the economy.Other US economic data revealed earlier showed that Housing Starts increased while Building Permits fell. Meanwhile, the US Department of Commerce reported that Import Prices edged up in April, exceeding estimates.The increase in Import Prices, along with US households expecting higher prices, could suggest the Fed would stand pat on interest rates. Nevertheless, market participants think otherwise and have increased their bets on further easing by the Fed, projecting 51 bps cuts towards the year's end.For the next week, USD/MXN traders will be eyeing Mexican Retail Sales and economic growth data. In the US, the schedule will feature Fed speakers, as well as flash PMIs and housing data, which will be closely watched.Mexican Peso daily market movers: Rises despite Banxico’s dovish stance amid weak US DataBanxico left Mexico’s main reference rate at 8.50%. The board expects additional calibration to monetary policy, anticipating that the current inflationary environment would allow it to continue the easing cycle. The central bank projects that headline inflation will converge on the 3% goal by Q3 2026.Officials at Banxico added that the changes in economic policy by the US administration have added uncertainty to the forecasts.Analysts at Goldman Sachs, Finamex, Skandia, Pantheon Macroeconomics, and Valmex project Mexico’s main reference rate at around the 7.25% to 7.75% range by the end of 2025. The five economists polled revealed that they expect 50 bps of easing for the June 26 meeting, according to El Economista.The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 in May, its lowest level since July 2022, missing the forecast of 53.8 and down from April’s 52.2, reflecting a deepening of consumer pessimism.Import Prices rose 0.1% MoM in April, beating both expectations and March’s -0.4% decline, suggesting modest upward pressure on input costs.The December 2025 fed funds rates futures contract shows that market players expect 54 basis points of easing.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso climbs as USD/MXN poised for daily close below 19.50The USD/MXN consolidated on Friday, although it appears poised to extend its losses as the week concludes. Momentum is tilted to the downside, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands below the 50 neutral line, indicating a bearish trend despite being slightly flat.That said, the first support is the current year-to-date (YTD) low of 19.29 ahead of the 19.00 figure. On the other hand, if USD/MXN rises past 19.50, the next resistance would be the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.92, ahead of the 20.00 figure. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

23:01 NZD/USD steadies near 0.5890 after data-driven rebound, but broader bias remains weak
NZD/USD is trading slightly higher near 0.5890 during early Friday trading, recovering from recent losses as upbeat domestic data supports the Kiwi.

The pair trades around 0.5890, snapping a two-day losing streak on stronger NZ inflation expectations and upbeat PMI.US sentiment dropped sharply, while soft inflation and retail data fuel Fed rate cut bets.Bearish bias holds; support at 0.5861 and 0.5847, resistance at 0.5880 and 0.5883.NZD/USD is trading slightly higher near 0.5890 during early Friday trading, recovering from recent losses as upbeat domestic data supports the Kiwi. The pair snapped a two-day slide, buoyed by an improvement in local manufacturing and a rise in inflation expectations, while market action remains largely muted across G10 currencies. The New Zealand Dollar is outperforming peers, supported by improving local fundamentals, even as global risk appetite remains subdued.New Zealand's Business NZ PMI rose to 53.9 in April from 53.2, signaling expansion in the manufacturing sector. More notably, RBNZ’s Q2 inflation expectations survey revealed a rise to 2.3% over the next two years, up from 2.2%, and 2.4% on the one-year horizon. While the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is still expected to cut rates by 25 basis points this month, the inflation rebound could temper the pace of further easing. ASB Bank’s Mark Smith said the central bank may be “somewhat wary” of the trend, particularly with tariff-related risks still unfolding.On the US side, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped sharply to 50.8 in May from 52.2, well below the 53.4 forecast. Consumer expectations and current conditions also declined, suggesting growing household concern amid mixed economic signals. Meanwhile, PPI and retail sales data earlier this week came in soft, adding to signs of disinflation and slower growth. Fed officials remain cautious, with market pricing indicating around 75 basis points of easing over the next year. However, upcoming tariff adjustments and broader uncertainty are keeping USD demand steady in the short term.Technical OutlookTechnically, NZD/USD exhibits a bearish structure, despite Friday’s modest uptick. The pair trades within a mid-range band between 0.5865 and 0.5918. The RSI sits near 49, reflecting neutral momentum. The MACD remains in sell territory, while the Stochastic %K is in the 20s, also suggesting neutral positioning. The CCI (20) indicates slight buy conditions, but the Williams %R and broader moving averages skew bearish. The 10-day EMA, 10-day SMA, 20-day SMA, and 200-day SMA point to downside pressure, only offset by the 100-day SMA, which offers mild support.Immediate support levels lie at 0.5861, 0.5847, and 0.5827, while resistance is seen at 0.5880, 0.5882, and 0.5883. Despite today's rebound, the technical outlook remains fragile, and unless new catalysts emerge from next week’s New Zealand PPI data or shifts in Fed rhetoric, NZD/USD may struggle to break higher.

23:00 United States Total Net TIC Flows dipped from previous $284.7B to $254.3B in March
United States Total Net TIC Flows dipped from previous $284.7B to $254.3B in March

23:00 United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows registered at $161.8B above expectations ($44.2B) in March
United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows registered at $161.8B above expectations ($44.2B) in March

22:31 United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions up to 185.3K from previous 175.4K
United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions up to 185.3K from previous 175.4K

22:31 United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions dipped from previous $-76.4K to $-122.2K
United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions dipped from previous $-76.4K to $-122.2K

22:31 Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions down to ¥172.3K from previous ¥176.9K
Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions down to ¥172.3K from previous ¥176.9K

22:31 United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions down to £27.2K from previous £29.2K
United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions down to £27.2K from previous £29.2K

22:31 United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $161.2K vs previous $162.5K
United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $161.2K vs previous $162.5K

22:31 Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions rose from previous €75.7K to €84.8K
Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions rose from previous €75.7K to €84.8K

22:30 Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions declined to $-49.3K from previous $-48.4K
Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions declined to $-49.3K from previous $-48.4K

22:13 Canadian Dollar backslides once again, remains rangebound
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) continued its back-and-forth pattern against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The Loonie pared away the previous day’s gains and kept USD/CAD pinned near the 1.4000 handle.

21:14 WTI crude oil rebounds above $61 as bulls defend $55 base, upside capped by Iran, OPEC+ supply risk
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading around $62 on Friday ahead of the weekend, staging a modest rebound after snapping a two-day losing streak.

WTI snaps a two-day losing streak, key resistance sits at $65.Price reclaims 21-day EMA, technical momentum improves as RSI turns neutral.Iran nuclear deal prospects and OPEC+ supply strategy weigh on broader bullish sentiment.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading around $62 on Friday ahead of the weekend, staging a modest rebound after snapping a two-day losing streak. The US Oil found renewed buying interest following a retest of the $55 support zone, where a potential double-bottom structure has formed on the daily chart. While the short-term technical picture has improved, macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, especially surrounding rising Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) output and the potential return of Iranian barrels, continue to weigh on sentiment.OPEC+ supply strategy and Iran talks cloud the outlookOPEC+’s recent move to raise production has introduced fresh downside risks to oil markets. Saudi Arabia and key allies are growing less willing to carry the burden of cuts alone, and the group has warned that all voluntary reductions—totaling 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd)—could be unwound by Q4 of 2025 if quota discipline doesn't improve.Meanwhile, renewed hopes of a United States (US)–Iran nuclear deal are capping oil's rebound. Diplomats suggest progress has been made, and analysts estimate a deal could bring back as much as 800,000 bpd of Iranian supply. These developments have reintroduced a bearish overhang as the market attempts to stabilize.Technical outlook: WTI holds above short-term key support, but $65 remains the line in the sandTechnically, WTI has managed to stay afloat above the $60 psychological level, while defending the $55 double-bottom base—a zone that marks the lowest levels since 2021. The daily chart shows the price reclaiming the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $61.29, a short-term bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved up to 50.70, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive, indicating a mild recovery in bullish momentum.That said, upside remains limited near the $65 handle, which aligns with previous support-turned-resistance and the April breakdown zone. A daily close above $65 would be required to confirm a broader trend reversal. Failure to do so could keep WTI stuck in a $55–$65 consolidation range. Traders will closely watch for fresh headlines on Iran, OPEC+ policy shifts, and macro data to drive the next directional move.

21:09 Gold price plummets over 4% this week as risk sentiment improves
Gold prices fell by more than 1.50% on Friday and are set to end the week with losses of over 4% as an improvement in market mood prompted investors to sell the precious metal in favor of riskier assets. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD trades at $3,187 after hitting a daily high of $3,252.

21:07 USD/JPY lifts as Japan’s GDP shrinks and USD stays supported on inflation fears
USD/JPY is moving higher on Friday as traders respond to weak growth figures from Japan and rising inflation expectations in the United States.

21:06 US Dollar ticks higher after weak consumer sentiment offsets broader data disappointment
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is trading slightly higher at around 101.00 on Friday after a softer-than-expected University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey added to a week of mixed US economic data.

20:32 Dow Jones Industrial Average tests higher despite slump in consumer sentiment
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stepped into fresh weekly highs on Friday after investors shrugged off the second-worst print from the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index on record.

20:30 USD/CHF limited upside as tariff uncertainty weighs on sentiment
The USD/CHF pair is trading higher on Friday, testing a significant resistance zone near 0.8380 as traders digest mixed economic signals from the United States and ongoing global trade tensions.

USD/CHF trades near a critical resistance zone as markets assess ongoing tariff uncertainty and soft US economic data.US consumer sentiment weakened in early May, raising concerns about the economic outlook.Technical levels suggest upside is capped near 0.8540, with strong support around 0.8320.The USD/CHF pair is trading higher on Friday, testing a significant resistance zone near 0.8380 as traders digest mixed economic signals from the United States and ongoing global trade tensions. Despite a modest 0.28% gain on the day, the pair's upside remains constrained by broader concerns over US economic resilience and tariff policy uncertainty. The US Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the greenback's performance against six major currencies, is trading flat around 100.80, reflecting a cautious market tone.The US Dollar is finding support as broader risk sentiment remains fragile. However, recent economic data has added to concerns about the US growth outlook. The University of Michigan's preliminary May Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8, down from 52.2 in April, undershooting market expectations and highlighting a decline in household confidence. Inflation expectations have also ticked higher, with the one-year forecast rising to 7.3% from 6.5%, while the five-year outlook increased to 4.6% from 4.4%, suggesting that price pressures are becoming more entrenched.Adding to this, the April PPI data came in softer than expected, with headline PPI at -0.5% month-over-month, while core PPI also contracted by -0.4%, raising fresh concerns about the pricing power of US businesses. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has hinted at a new wave of tariffs to be implemented over the next two to three weeks, further clouding the outlook for global trade and US economic stability.Technical AnalysisFrom a technical perspective, USD/CHF is facing a critical test at 0.8540, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the downtrend from the 2022 peak. This level also marks a significant former support from 2015 that broke earlier this year, reinforcing its importance as a resistance zone. A sustained break above this area would indicate a broader trend reversal, potentially targeting the mid-point of the 2022-2025 decline at 0.8706.However, failure to clear 0.8540 could trigger a deeper pullback, with immediate support at 0.8320, a key long-term Fibonacci level that previously acted as a structural base in 2015-2016. Further downside targets include 0.8185 and the long-term cycle low near 0.7770.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains subdued, hovering around 37.2 on the weekly chart, indicating that bearish momentum is easing but far from reversing. The pair is also testing its 10-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.8419, a critical short-term resistance level.Without a decisive breakout above 0.8540, USD/CHF is likely to remain capped in the near term, with the risk of renewed selling pressure if US data continues to disappoint. The broader technical picture remains bearish, with the pair needing a confirmed monthly close above this level to confirm a trend reversal.Daily Chart

20:02 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count fell from previous 474 to 473
United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count fell from previous 474 to 473

19:40 EUR/USD price analysis: Pair drifts lower amid bearish pressure
The EUR/USD pair is under modest selling pressure on Friday, moving near the lower end of its daily range around the 1.11 zone.

EUR/USD trades near the 1.11 zone with minor losses on Friday.The pair maintains a bearish outlook, supported by mixed technical signals.Key support is clustered below 1.1150, with resistance near 1.1200.The EUR/USD pair is under modest selling pressure on Friday, moving near the lower end of its daily range around the 1.11 zone. This positioning reflects a bearish tone, reinforced by a cluster of short-term technical indicators that favor downside momentum, despite some mixed signals from longer-term trends. As the European session wraps up, traders appear cautious, aligning with the broader risk-off sentiment in the market.EUR/USD currently maintains a bearish bias, as highlighted by the alignment of its short-term moving averages. The 10-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 10-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) both point lower, signaling near-term selling pressure. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) also supports this bearish view, adding weight to the downside outlook. In contrast, the longer-term 100-day and 200-day SMAs indicate a more supportive backdrop, suggesting that the broader trend remains mixed.Momentum indicators present a similarly cautious picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the 40 area, indicating neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) clearly favors selling, adding to the pair's downside risk. The Average Directional Index (14) is in the 30s, further confirming the bearish tone, while the Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28) remains in neutral territory, reflecting the current indecision among traders. The Awesome Oscillator also mirrors this neutrality, failing to provide a clear directional cue.Looking ahead, immediate support is found around 1.1144, with additional levels near 1.1106 and 1.1094. On the upside, resistance is likely to emerge around 1.1193, followed closely by 1.1209 and 1.1222, potentially capping any recovery attempts as the pair struggles to break out of its current downtrend.Daily Chart

19:34 EUR/USD seen at 1.15 as US outlook weakens – Rabobank
The resilience of the US economy in recent years was interpreted by many investors as a demonstration of US ‘exceptionalism’, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes.

The resilience of the US economy in recent years was interpreted by many investors as a demonstration of US ‘exceptionalism’, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes. Greenback’s global lead remains intact for now"The surge in US recession fears that followed Trump’s tariff announcements on April 2 sparked a rapid exit from ‘exceptionalism’ trades, which overpowered the USD’s traditional safe-haven attraction. While other currencies are set to continue chipping away at the USD’s dominance as the global reserve currency, the greenback is set to maintain a clear lead for many years to come." "In line with this, we expect that the USD’s safe haven character can be restored in the months ahead. The exact timing will likely depend on whether US recession risks increase or disperse, since this will guide net flows in and out of USD assets. On the back of the weakened outlook for the US economy we maintain 12-month forecasts of EUR/USD1.15 and USD/JPY140.00."

19:11 Gold retreats below $3,200 as safe-haven demand fades, down over $300 from record high
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to decline on Friday, falling toward $3,180 and marking a sharp weekly loss of over 4%, its biggest since November 2024. The precious metal has now shed over $300 from its record high of $3,500 set in April, as safe-haven demand weakens and technical selling accelerates.

XAU/USD trades near $3,180, on track for a weekly loss of over 4%.Easing trade tensions and a stable geopolitical landscape reduce demand for the bullion.Price has fallen more than $300 from April’s all-time high of $3,500.

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to decline on Friday, falling toward $3,180 and marking a sharp weekly loss of over 4%, its biggest since November 2024. The precious metal has now shed over $300 from its record high of $3,500 set in April, as safe-haven demand weakens and technical selling accelerates.Risk sentiment improved this week after the United States (US) and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days, while geopolitical tensions remained muted with India-Pakistan and Middle East risks stabilizing. After a period of conflicting reports and diplomatic deadlock, Ukrainian and Russian officials finally opened direct talks for the first time since 2022.In the latest macro release, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May fell sharply to 50.8, down from 52.2 in April and well below forecasts of 53.4. This reflects growing household concerns over persistent inflation and economic uncertainty. While this normally boosts Gold’s appeal, the market response has been muted, with traders focused on profit-taking and technical positioning instead.This comes after a week of dovish US economic data, including softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures and a rise in Initial Jobless claims to a three-month high. Markets now price in at least two Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in 2025, with the first likely in September. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that supply-driven shocks could reintroduce inflation volatility, complicating future monetary policy.Technical analysis: XAU/USD weakens, double top signals bearish shiftFrom a technical perspective, the yellow metal remains under pressure heading into the weekend, trading near $3,180 after failing to hold above the psychological $3,200 mark. The daily chart reveals a bearish double top pattern, signaling a potential trend reversal from April’s record highs. The neckline of this pattern aligns closely with the $3,160–$3,150 support zone, which is also reinforced by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3,168. A decisive break below this zone could open the door for a deeper correction toward the $3,000 handle.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovers near 45 below the neutral level, showing weakening bullish momentum and further confirming the bearish technical bias. Unless bulls reclaim the $3,250 psychological region with strong conviction, the path of least resistance for Gold remains tilted to the downside.

19:00 Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous 0.65% to 0.4% in April
Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous 0.65% to 0.4% in April

18:59 EUR/CHF price analysis: Cross struggles amid mixed technical signals
The EUR/CHF pair is navigating a cautious tone on Friday, hovering around the 0.94 zone with modest gains.

EUR/CHF was seen around the 0.94 zone on Friday, with minor gains.The cross maintains a bearish bias despite mixed technical signals.Key support is clustered below the 0.9350 level, with resistance near 0.9360.The EUR/CHF pair is navigating a cautious tone on Friday, hovering around the 0.94 zone with modest gains. Despite the slight recovery, the broader technical outlook remains tilted to the downside, reflecting persistent selling pressure that has kept the pair within a tight range in recent sessions. Mixed signals from momentum indicators suggest a complex short-term outlook, reinforcing the cautious sentiment among traders.EUR/CHF continues to exhibit a bearish overall structure, as suggested by the alignment of its 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which all point to downward pressure. These longer-term trend indicators confirm the broader selling bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the 40s, reflecting neutral conditions that align with the current sideways price action. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals a slight buy momentum, contrasting with the prevailing bearish sentiment.Adding to the mixed technical landscape, the Momentum (10) indicator hovers around the 0 level, suggesting mild buying interest, while both the Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28) and the Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) rest in the 50s, indicating a largely neutral stance. This combination of signals underlines the current indecision in the market, as traders weigh the potential for a near-term rebound against the longer-term bearish trend.For now, immediate support is expected around 0.9353, with additional layers at 0.9341 and 0.9334. On the upside, resistance is likely to emerge around 0.9362, followed closely by 0.9363 and 0.9364, potentially capping any recovery attempts in the near term.Daily Chart

18:46 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Rejection at resistance risks fresh downside
The US Dollar (USD) is trading higher against the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday, as markets continue to digest the ongoing developments in tariff negotiations, interest rate expectations, and broader risk sentiment.

18:20 GBP/USD slips below 1.33 as US consumer sentiment turns negative, boosts USD
The Pound Sterling retreats against the US Dollar during the North American session, poised to end the week with minimal losses of over 0.24%. An absent economic docket in the UK on Friday left traders adrift to US data, which revealed that consumers are becoming pessimistic about the economy.

17:18 NZD/USD edges higher as upbeat New Zealand data offsets cautious US Dollar tone
NZD/USD edges higher to trade near 0.5894 at the start of the American trading hours on Friday, snapping a two-day losing streak. The pair is holding within this week’s range as it draws support from upbeat domestic data and rising inflation expectations.

17:17 US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index is seen at 50.8 in May
US consumer sentiment weakened in early May, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary survey. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 from 52.2 in April, undershooting market expectations and markin a decline in household confidence.

Consumer confidence in the US declined in early May.One-year inflation expectation edged higher to 7.3%.US consumer sentiment weakened in early May, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary survey. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 from 52.2 in April, undershooting market expectations and markin a decline in household confidence.The drop was broad-based. The gauge of Current Conditions eased to 57.6 from 59.8, while the Consumer Expectations component fell from 47.3 to 46.5, pointing to growing concern about the economic outlook.Inflation expectations, meanwhile, moved higher. The one-year forecast rose to 7.3% from 6.5%, while the five-year outlook increased to 4.6% from 4.4%, suggesting consumers are growing more wary of price pressures.Market reactionThe Greenback showed little immediate reaction to the data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) keeps hovereing around the 100.80 zone, navigating a tight range and advancing marginally.

17:14 EUR/JPY flattens around 163.00, Japan Q1 GDP contracts by 0.2%
The EUR/JPY pair trades flat around 163.00 after recovering its initial losses during North American trading hours on Friday. The cross rebounds as the Japanese Yen (JPY) faces slight selling pressure, following the release of the Japan Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.

17:00 United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index came in at 46.5, below expectations (48) in May
United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index came in at 46.5, below expectations (48) in May

17:00 United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations climbed from previous 6.5% to 7.3% in May
United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations climbed from previous 6.5% to 7.3% in May

17:00 United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation climbed from previous 4.4% to 4.6% in May
United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation climbed from previous 4.4% to 4.6% in May

17:00 United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 50.8 below forecasts (53.4) in May
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 50.8 below forecasts (53.4) in May

16:39 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Finds temporary support near 145.00
The USD/JPY pair recoups some of its initial losses and rebounds to near 145.50 during North American trading hours on Friday, while it is still 0.1% down.

16:31 Russia Foreign Trade rose from previous $10.5B to $11.756B in March
Russia Foreign Trade rose from previous $10.5B to $11.756B in March

15:42 Mexican Peso trims some of Banxico-related losses following interest-rate cut
The Mexican peso (MXN) is consolidating against the US dollar (USD) on Friday after recovering some of the ground lost on Thursday after the Banco de Mexico (Banxico) decided to cut interest rates, as expected.

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The Mexican peso edges up slightly, recovering some of the previous day’s losses.Banxico cuts rates while the Fed remains cautious, highlighting a contrasting economic outlook that doesn’t bode well for the Peso.USD/MXN edges down as traders anticipate US Michigan Sentiment data, with inflation expectations and consumer confidence in focus.The Mexican peso (MXN) is consolidating against the US dollar (USD) on Friday after recovering some of the ground lost on Thursday after the Banco de Mexico (Banxico) decided to cut interest rates, as expected. At the time of writing, USD/MXN is trading near 19.485, down 0.04% on the day, as the pair pulls back slightly following Thursday’s rebound. Persistent trade-related uncertainty and diverging central bank policies remain key themes guiding price action.Market participants await the preliminary release of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data at 14:00 GMT, a key event risk that could influence near-term USD/MXN direction. The United States will publish three closely watched indicators: the Consumer Sentiment Index, the Consumer Expectations Index, and the 1-year and 5-year Inflation Expectations for May. These measures offer timely insights into household confidence, perceived price pressures, and consumer behavior – critical inputs for shaping Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations.Fed flags inflation risks from structural shocksThe Federal Reserve (Fed) has adopted a cautious stance in light of softening economic signals and persistent supply-side uncertainty. Speaking after the release of Thursday’s April data, Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed the twin themes of slowing momentum and inflation risks. The Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly declined by 0.5% compared with the previous month –its steepest drop since 2009 –while retail sales rose by only 0.1%, suggesting subdued consumer demand.During his opening speech at the Second Thomas Laubach Research Conference on Thursday, Powell noted, “The economy may be entering a period marked by more frequent and persistent supply shocks,” while adding that the central bank remains “attentive to signs of cooling demand” and that “inflation is moving in the right direction, though the path forward remains uncertain.”While these developments may delay any shift toward policy easing, they also underscore the delicate balancing act the Fed faces as it monitors inflation and growth risks simultaneously.Banxico rate cut underscores domestic slowdownOn the other side of the policy spectrum, Banxico delivered a 50 basis-point rate cut on Thursday as expected, lowering its benchmark interest rate to 8.5% in a unanimous decision. The move extended its easing cycle for a seventh straight meeting as the central bank seeks to stimulate a sluggish domestic economy. In its post-meeting statement, Banxico stated that:“The Board estimates that looking ahead, it could continue calibrating the monetary policy stance and consider adjusting it in similar magnitudes. It anticipates that the inflationary environment will allow to continue the rate cutting cycle, albeit maintaining a restrictive stance.”With Banxico signaling more easing and the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious but steady tone, the policy divergence continues to favor the US Dollar. Still, USD/MXN remains vulnerable to headline-driven risk shifts, and the University of Michigan sentiment data could inject additional volatility. Trade policy developments and inflation expectations will also remain key drivers in shaping the near-term path for the Peso.Mexican Peso daily digest: Banxico warns about trade risks to the economyThe Banxico lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 8.5%. In the statement, the bank signaled that further similar cuts could be considered going forward.Banxico warned about the effects of the current trade standoff with the United States on the country’s economy. “The environment of uncertainty and trade tensions poses significant downward risks,” the bank said in its statement. Rising US-Mexico trade tensions threaten Mexico’s export-reliant economy, where over 80% of exports go to the US. Tariffs on goods such as steel and aluminium could disrupt supply chains, dampen investor sentiment, and weigh on growth.Concerns about the economic downturn have weighed in on Banxico. While inflation has picked up in recent months to 3.93% in April, the bank still expects inflation to return to its 3% target in the third quarter of 2026.The US has imposed 25% tariffs on certain Mexican imports not covered by the USMCA, citing security and drug enforcement concerns, adding further uncertainty to bilateral trade relations.According to Reuters, Mexico’s Economy Minister has proposed an early review of the USMCA, ahead of the 2026 timeline, to reassure investors and preserve the framework underpinning over $1.5 trillion in annual North American trade.The US economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q1, marking the first decline since 2022. This unexpected downturn was primarily driven by a surge in imports as businesses and consumers accelerated purchases ahead of new tariffs introduced by the Trump administration. Technical Analysis: USD/MXN bearish consolidation signals further weaknessUSD/MXN remains under pressure, extending its decline below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October to February rally at 19.57. The pair is currently trading around 19.45, having failed to reclaim the key psychological level of 19.50, with 19.40 acting as immediate resistance. This reinforces the prevailing bearish momentum and suggests sellers remain firmly in control.The consolidation range highlighted in the yellow box has continued to contain price action over the past few weeks. However, repeated failures to break higher and the prevailing downtrend signal that a bearish continuation remains likely. This technical setup is in line with persistent downside pressure, as the pair struggles to gain traction above its short-term moving averages.The next major support lies near the October low at 19.11, a critical level that could serve as a medium-term target if bearish momentum persists. A break below this area would open the door to further losses, potentially exposing the psychological 19.00 level. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 19.40, followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 19.57. A sustained break above this zone could mark the beginning of a shift in sentiment, bringing the psychological 19.60 area back into focus.USD/MXN daily chart
The 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at 19.53, continues to act as dynamic resistance, repeatedly capping upside attempts. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at around 40, indicating mild bearish momentum. Although not yet in oversold territory, the RSI suggests there is room for additional downside before a technically driven rebound becomes more probable. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

15:30 United States Import Price Index (YoY) down to 0.1% in April from previous 0.9%
United States Import Price Index (YoY) down to 0.1% in April from previous 0.9%

15:30 United States Import Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.1%, above expectations (-0.4%) in April
United States Import Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.1%, above expectations (-0.4%) in April

15:30 United States Export Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 2.4% to 2% in April
United States Export Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 2.4% to 2% in April

15:30 Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities came in at $-4.23B below forecasts ($5.2B) in March
Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities came in at $-4.23B below forecasts ($5.2B) in March

15:30 Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities down to $15.63B in March from previous $27.15B
Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities down to $15.63B in March from previous $27.15B

15:30 United States Building Permits Change dipped from previous 1.6% to -4.7% in April
United States Building Permits Change dipped from previous 1.6% to -4.7% in April

15:30 United States Building Permits (MoM) registered at 1.412M, below expectations (1.45M) in April
United States Building Permits (MoM) registered at 1.412M, below expectations (1.45M) in April

15:30 United States Housing Starts (MoM) came in at 1.361M, below expectations (1.37M) in April
United States Housing Starts (MoM) came in at 1.361M, below expectations (1.37M) in April

15:30 United States Housing Starts Change rose from previous -11.4% to 1.6% in April
United States Housing Starts Change rose from previous -11.4% to 1.6% in April

15:30 United States Export Price Index (MoM) above expectations (-0.5%) in April: Actual (0.1%)
United States Export Price Index (MoM) above expectations (-0.5%) in April: Actual (0.1%)

15:21 USD/CAD extends consolidation ahead of US Consumer Sentiment data
USD/CAD is trading flat around 1.3960 at the time of writing on Friday, showing little to no directional bias as the pair remains confined within a narrow weekly range.

USD/CAD trades in a narrow range near 1.3960 on Friday, showing muted price action.Canada’s manufacturing sales fell 1.4% in March, less than what economists had expected.The US Dollar Index holds above 100.00 after Thursday’s mixed US economic data.
USD/CAD is trading flat around 1.3960 at the time of writing on Friday, showing little to no directional bias as the pair remains confined within a narrow weekly range. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has lost momentum after reaching a five-month high of 1.3750 on May 6, with the pair now hovering above its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 50-day EMA near 1.4024 continues to cap upside moves.On the macro front, Canadian Manufacturing Sales declined by 1.4% MoM in March, a softer drop compared to the preliminary estimate of a 1.9% fall. The decline was largely driven by weaker activity in the primary metals and petroleum-and-coal-products sectors. While the data reflects underlying economic softness, the smaller-than-expected contraction offered limited support to the Canadian Dollar.Market sentiment around the Loonie has weakened in recent days as investors increasingly price in potential interest-rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC). The move follows a disappointing April labor market report released on May 9, which showed the unemployment rate jumping to 6.9%.This has led the investors to price in a greater-than 50 % probability of a BoC rate cut in June, further weighing on the Loonie, according to a Reuters report.That creep up in interest rate expectations for the Bank of Canada is weighing on the Loonie,” said Amo Sahota, director at Klarity FX in San Francisco, adding that diverging prospects between the BoC and the Federal Reserve have widened the gap between Canadian and U.S. short-term rates.The CAD’s direction in the mid-term remains closely tied to any trade-related developments between Canada and its southern neighbour, the US. The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) annual Financial Stability Report, released on May 8, highlighted that ongoing trade tensions are the biggest threat to Canada’s economy and financial system. The central bank cautioned that rising global protectionism could worsen existing risks in the domestic financial sector.On the other hand, despite the mixed data released on Thursday, the US Dollar Index (DXY) – which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies – is broadly steady and holds above the 100.00 mark, supported by cautious risk sentiment and steady Treasury yields. Traders are now looking ahead to a fresh set of US economic indicators scheduled for release later on Friday, including the import/export Price Indexes, Housing Starts, Building Permits, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey. The latter will be particularly important to gauge the US consumer mood after four consecutive months of declines.Looking at next week, attention will shift to Canada’s monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report due next Tuesday, which could provide further cues on the domestic growth outlook and shape expectations for future Bank of Canada policy moves.

14:47 EUR stuck around 1.12 with risk in Fed pricing – Scotiabank
EUR/USD is extending its recent, quiet consolidation around 1.12 and trading with modest support into Friday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

EUR/USD is extending its recent, quiet consolidation around 1.12 and trading with modest support into Friday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. ECB policymakers remain dovish"The renewed fade in Fed expectations is the most important near-term driver for EUR, as it remains a key source of uncertainty in the outlook for relative central bank policy. For the ECB, policymakers remain universally dovish and continue to communicate a preference for additional cuts in the coming meetings."

14:46 CAD consolidating within a right range and finding support from spreads – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is entering Friday’s NA session flat vs. the USD as it consolidates around the midpoint of this week’s range, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is entering Friday’s NA session flat vs. the USD as it consolidates around the midpoint of this week’s range, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. RSI drifts back to neutral levels around 50"Yield spreads remain in focus as markets consider the latest run of soft US data and their implications for Fed policy, offering up the possibility of a pause in the recent widening that has been a near-term headwind for the CAD. The stabilization in oil prices is also welcome and helping to steady our FV estimate for USD/CAD, which now stands at 1.3970." "Friday’s domestic release calendar is limited to the international securities transactions data for March (8:30am ET) and there are no major releases scheduled ahead of Tuesday’s CPI. BoC Gov. Macklem is also scheduled to speak next Thursday, on the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Banff. The latest countertrend recovery in USD/CAD looks to have lost momentum." "This week’s range has revealed considerable resistance above 1.4000 with support observed around 1.3900. The RSI has drifted back to neutral levels around 50, indicating a loss of momentum. The 200 day MA (1.4021) remains an important level to watch, in terms of upside risk, given USD/CAD’s inability to break above it this week. Recent congestion appears centered around the pivotal 61.8% retracement of the September-February rally.

14:45 US Dollar looks set for steady weekly close ahead of Consumer Sentiment data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is on the back foot on Friday at around 100.62.

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Daily digest market movers: Lighter data ahead of Michigan readingThe US economic calendar kicks off at 12:30 GMT with a string of data:April’s monthly Building Permits are expected to fall to 1.45 million from 1.467 million in March. April’s Import-Export Price Indexes are due as well. Export prices are expected to drop by 0.5% from 0% previously. Import prices are expected to fall by 0.4%, accelerating the 0.1% decline seen a month earlier.At 14:00 GMT, the University of Michigan publishes its preliminary report for May:The Consumer Sentiment Index is seen edging up slightly to 53.4 from 52.2 in April's final reading.The 5-year inflation expectation is expected to remain stable at 4.4%.On equity markets, European indices soar on Friday, up just shy of 1%. US futures are lagging a touch but are also in the green, up by less than 0.50%.The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June’s meeting at just 8.2%. Further ahead, the July 30 decision sees odds for rates being lower than current levels at 38.6%.The US 10-year yields trade around 4.41%, softening from its peak performance on early Thursday at 4.54%US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Barriers definedThe US Dollar Index could be on the verge of a crisis as an increasing number of financial market participants start to question the stability status of the Greenback, given the unstable policies of the Trump administration. The “Trump put” is becoming an actual theme, and in this scenario it isn’t likely that the US Dollar revisits levels such as 107.00 or 110.00 for a long time. Add in the fear of a joint Asian currency intervention, where local currencies are appreciated against the Greenback, and US exceptionalism might be over for an extended period of time. On the upside, 101.90 is the first big resistance again. It already acted as a pivotal level throughout December 2023 and as a base for the inverted head-and-shoulders (H&S) formation during the summer of 2024. In case Dollar bulls push the DXY even higher, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 102.06 comes into play. On the other hand, the previous resistance at 100.22 is now acting as firm support, followed by the year-to-date low of 97.91 and the pivotal level of 97.73. Further below, a relatively thin technical support comes in at 96.94 before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

14:43 First new market forecasts for Platinum and Palladium – Commerzbank
A market-leading refiner of Platinum group metals headquartered in London yesterday published its new forecasts for the supply and demand of Platinum group metals, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

A market-leading refiner of Platinum group metals headquartered in London yesterday published its new forecasts for the supply and demand of Platinum group metals, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Platinum faces third straight year of major supply deficit"According to the forecast, the Platinum market is expected to show another considerable supply deficit of 736 thousand ounces this year. This would be the third consecutive significant supply deficit. Demand is expected to fall by 2.6% because the automotive industry is likely to require less Platinum and investment demand is also expected to decline. Supply is expected to fall by 1.3%. The main reason for this is a 5% drop in mine production in South Africa. This will prevent a smaller supply deficit.""The company expects the Palladium market to be almost balanced this year, following a supply deficit of 501 thousand ounces in the previous year. The reason for the vanishing supply deficit is a 6.4% decline in demand. Similar to Platinum, this is due to lower Palladium demand from the automotive industry and weaker investment demand. The latter is expected to be negative for the first time in three years, which can be explained by expected ETF outflows. Palladium supply, on the other hand, is only expected to fall by 1.7%." "This is mainly due to a decline in mine production in South Africa and North America. In contrast, the recycling supply from the automotive industry is expected to increase. Other market observers such as the World Platinum Investment Council and Metals Focus, a research company specialising in precious metals, are expected to publish their new forecasts on Monday."

14:42 Markets quiet but USD looks vulnerable on pause in Fed cut fade trade – Scotiabank
Markets are quiet heading into Friday’s NA session with limited movement across most of the G10 currencies and minimal dispersion in terms of performance, aside from NZD (outperforming on higher than expected inflation expectation data) and SEK (underperforming in response to Riksbank Gov.

Markets are quiet heading into Friday’s NA session with limited movement across most of the G10 currencies and minimal dispersion in terms of performance, aside from NZD (outperforming on higher than expected inflation expectation data) and SEK (underperforming in response to Riksbank Gov. Thedeen’s latest speech). The USD is up on the week but has given up much of its early gains and has traded defensively in the period following Tuesday’s CPI release. The market’s focus remains centered on trade following the easing of tensions between the US and China, as focus shifts to next week’s US/Japan talks, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD is ending the week with a modest gain"President Trump has said that his administration will be setting tariff rates for most countries in the coming weeks, while negotiators continue their bilateral discussions with the US’s largest trading partners. Beyond FX, the market tone is mixed as US equity futures extend their rally to fresh highs while US yields drift lower, extending their reversals from Thursday. Rates markets appear to be repricing a marginal amount of Fed easing on the back of Thursday’s broad (Empire, Philly, retail sales, NAHB, industrial production) data disappointment, ending the relief trade that characterized much of the price action month-to-date." "This development does not bode well for the broader USD and may set the stage for renewed medium-term weakness following the countertrend recovery we’ve observed over the past few weeks. In commodities, oil prices are steady and finding some support amid renewed skepticism about the prospect of a US/Iran nuclear deal despite this week’s efforts by President Trump. Copper prices continue to consolidate at the midpoint of their recent range and gold is trading heavily, ignoring softer yields as it responds to headlines from the Russia/ Ukraine talks in Istanbul." "Friday’s US release calendar is heavy, and includes housing starts and building permits along with import prices at 8:30am ET. The highlight will be the 10:00am ET release of the UMich sentiment survey (preliminary), followed by TIC data at 4pm ET. The TIC data are for the month of March and will therefore not (yet) capture the Treasury market turbulence from early April. Friday’s Fedspeak includes Daly (typically dovish), and Barkin (hawkish)."

14:30 India FX Reserves, USD climbed from previous $686.06B to $690.62B in May 5
India FX Reserves, USD climbed from previous $686.06B to $690.62B in May 5

14:30 India Bank Loan Growth down to 9.9% in April 28 from previous 10.3%
India Bank Loan Growth down to 9.9% in April 28 from previous 10.3%

14:25 AUD/USD holds key level of 0.6400, RBA monetary policy in focus
The AUD/USD pair is slightly higher to near 0.6420 during European trading hours on Friday, but is inside Thursday’s trading range. The Aussie pair is expected to trade broadly sideways as investors await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision, which will be announced on Tuesday.

14:00 Gold on the rollercoaster – Commerzbank
"The price of Gold went on a bit of a rollercoaster ride on Thursday, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

"The price of Gold went on a bit of a rollercoaster ride on Thursday, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Gold Swings $100 as trade tensions ease, inflation cools"After briefly dipping towards $3,120 per troy ounce, it recovered by more than $100 at times over the course of the day. The reason for the back and forth was the recent easing of tensions in the US trade conflict, which reduced demand for safe havens on the one hand, and weak US inflation data on the other. Following the weaker-than-expected consumer price data on Tuesday, producer prices in April yesterday also indicated that price pressure has so far remained subdued." "This gave new impetus to expectations of US interest rate cuts, which in turn benefited Gold as an interest-free investment. Ultimately, however, developments in the trade conflict are likely to outweigh short-term economic data and interest rate expectations. After all, the rapid rise in the price of Gold by more than 30% at times since the beginning of the year cannot be explained solely by the market's expectations of interest rate cuts, but is likely to be largely due to a flight to safe havens." "If further 'deals' are announced between the US and its trading partners in the coming weeks, the price of Gold is likely to continue its downward trend."

13:49 OPEC still sees undersupplied Oil market – Commerzbank
OPEC has also confirmed its forecasts for Oil demand, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

OPEC has also confirmed its forecasts for Oil demand, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. OPEC revises its forecast for non-OPEC+ supply downwards"It continues to expect an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day this year and next. OPEC thus remains significantly more optimistic than most other market observers. In view of the demand risks emanating from the trade conflict, OPEC's forecasts should be treated with a certain degree of caution." "At the same time, OPEC revised its forecast for non-OPEC+ supply downwards. The lower price level is obviously playing a role here, which is slowing down the expansion of US Oil production. Based on OPEC's forecasts, the Oil market would be in a supply deficit this year, which would provide leeway for an increase in OPEC+ Oil production." "We consider this assessment to be too optimistic due to the very ambitious demand forecast."

13:48 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slides to near $32.30 on US-China trade optimism
Silver price (XAG/USD) falls sharply to near $32.30 during European trading hours on Friday. The white metal is down over 1% as investors become increasingly confident about a trade deal between the United States (US) and China.

13:48 IEA sees Oil market still significantly oversupplied despite higher demand forecast – Commerzbank
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has left its forecast for the increase in global Oil demand virtually unchanged. It expects growth of 740 thousand and 760 thousand barrels per day this year and next year respectively. However, demand momentum is expected to slow over the course of the year.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has left its forecast for the increase in global Oil demand virtually unchanged. It expects growth of 740 thousand and 760 thousand barrels per day this year and next year respectively. However, demand momentum is expected to slow over the course of the year. The increase is taking place from a higher starting level than previously assumed, though. As a result, Oil demand this year will be 360 thousand barrels per day higher than in the previous forecast and 430 thousand barrels per day higher next year, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. IEA reports OPEC+ overproduction led by Russia, Iraq, and UAE"As the forecast for non-OPEC supply remained unchanged, the demand for OPEC Oil for this and next year increases to 26.7 million and 26.5 million barrels per day respectively. Nevertheless, the market is facing the prospect of a considerable oversupply, as OPEC production already totalled 27.4 million barrels per day in April according to the IEA and is likely to rise further in the coming months due to the announced production increases. Assuming that OPEC+ production is not increased any further after June, the IEA expects a supply surplus of 720 thousand barrels per day this year.""The OPEC+ countries bound by the production targets produced a good 1.2 million barrels per day more than agreed in April, with the IEA taking the agreed compensatory cuts into account. The overproduction is attributable in particular to Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Russia. However, the Oil production of the latter three countries is significantly higher than other data providers such as OPEC or S&P Global Commodity Insights reported." "As a result, the IEA's OPEC+ Oil production figures are significantly higher than those of OPEC and S&P Global Commodity Insights, which is also reflected in the implied market balance. If the significantly lower production figures from the OPEC monthly report and S&P Global Commodity Insights are taken into account, the Oil market would only be slightly oversupplied this year."

13:35 Gold falls as trade tensions ease and Fed outlook shifts – Commerzbank
The price of Gold has come under considerable pressure in recent days, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

The price of Gold has come under considerable pressure in recent days, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Gold struggles to attract buyers despite recent price decline"The significant reduction in reciprocal tariffs between the USA and China has reduced demand for Gold as a safe haven. The uncertainty triggered by the trade conflict had driven the Gold price from one record high to the next until April." "The safe-haven premium included in the price is now falling again. In addition, market participants have noticeably scaled back their interest rate cut expectations for the Fed, as the risk of a US recession has decreased due to the (temporary) agreement between the US and China." "All of this speaks in favour of a further fall in the price of Gold, especially as buying interest has not increased following the recent price falls - in contrast to previous falls."

13:31 UK: EU trade deal remains the biggest prize – Standard Chartered
The UK government is aiming to build on recent momentum after trade deals with the US and India. The UK-EU summit on 19 May presents an opportunity to start reducing non-tariff barriers.

The UK government is aiming to build on recent momentum after trade deals with the US and India. The UK-EU summit on 19 May presents an opportunity to start reducing non-tariff barriers. An improved EU deal offers the largest economic upside of any trade deal, Standard Chartered's economists Christopher Graham and Saabir Salad note. UK’s grand ambitions"The UK government is hoping to build on the momentum it has generated with the successful completion of trade deals with the US and India in the past couple of weeks. Although the US deal maintains a 10% baseline tariff, it reduces the impact of US sectoral tariffs on the UK. The UK-India free-trade agreement (FTA) still needs to be ratified and is unlikely to come into effect until next year, but it offers longer-term trade and growth benefits for the UK via lower tariffs and improved market access. However, the biggest prize – and the key focus for the UK government – will be a revised trade deal with the EU given the UK’s outsized exports to the EU (Figure 1). The EU-UK summit, set to take place in London on 19 May, could provide a springboard for negotiations following progress on a new security and defence agreement.""We do not expect the key parts of the Brexit deal to be reversed; the UK will remain outside the EU single market and customs union, and will likely resist a return to freedom of movement. Near-term obstacles to negotiations include the creation of a mutually acceptable youth mobility scheme and a long-term agreement on fishing rights. Given the EU’s historical reluctance to allow cherry-picking with respect to market access, there is a clear risk that a broader deal takes longer to crystallise or falls well short of UK aspirations. However, we think the political will on both sides to improve the trading relationship is stronger than it has been since the 2016 Brexit referendum. The prospect of mutual recognition or regulatory alignment, at least in certain sectors, could significantly reduce non-tariff barriers, providing an economic boost to the UK."

13:29 Oil gains on trade optimism, then slips on Iran talks – Commerzbank
Oil prices rose significantly earlier this week, before falling again recently, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Oil prices rose significantly earlier this week, before falling again recently, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. China’s April crude data could boost Oil prices further "They benefited from the easing of the trade conflict between the US and China, which has brightened the outlook for oil demand in the two most important oil-consuming countries. The data on crude oil processing for April, which will be published by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics at the beginning of next week, could shed light on the current state of oil demand in China." "Crude oil imports surprised on the upside in April. If the same applies to crude oil processing, this would provide a tailwind for oil prices. News on the ongoing nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran, which are responsible for the recent price decline, would probably also have an impact on oil prices." "The two sides are apparently getting closer, fuelling hopes of a new nuclear agreement and a lifting of US sanctions. As such, there are currently two opposing influencing factors on the oil market that could cause prices to move in one direction or the other."

13:22 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

13:15 JPY: No summer hike – Commerzbank
The Japanese economy has not gotten off to a particularly good start this year. According to GDP figures published this morning, economic output declined slightly in the first quarter, falling by 0.2% compared with the previous quarter.

The Japanese economy has not gotten off to a particularly good start this year. According to GDP figures published this morning, economic output declined slightly in the first quarter, falling by 0.2% compared with the previous quarter. Unlike other countries, which saw an increase in exports in the first quarter as they rushed to deliver products to the US before US tariffs were announced, net exports negatively impacted GDP growth in Japan in the first quarter and were the main factor responsible for negative growth. Private consumption also stagnated in the first three months of this year, remaining virtually unchanged for the past two years, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. JPY weakness to persist despite eventual BoJ move later this year"Inflation remains above the central bank's target, particularly when food prices are included in the calculation. However, weak private demand is likely to slow the rate of price increases in the coming months. In such an environment, it is questionable whether the ‘second force’ of domestic demand, much touted by the BoJ, will be able to generate enough inflationary pressure to raise the rate of price increases to 2% in the longer term.""Overall, with weak growth in the first quarter, ongoing high international uncertainty regarding trade with the US, and inflation driven more by special factors than structural developments, it is unlikely that the BoJ will raise interest rates again in the near future. We have long held the view that the Bank of Japan will be tempted to raise its key interest rate to at least 0.75%, with July being a good time to do so. However, given the ongoing tariff negotiations with the US and weaker-than-expected growth, the BoJ must realise that now is not the right time.""Nevertheless, this is unlikely to have much impact on the JPY. We have always believed that this latest interest rate hike will not significantly alter the markets' view of the JPY, as it should be clear to everyone that this will be the final step. We now expect the Bank of Japan to raise its key interest rate once again towards the end of the year, when growth and international calm have improved. Nevertheless, this will likely be viewed as an isolated interest rate move rather than the beginning of a hiking cycle. Therefore, this adjustment to our interest rate forecast does not change our fundamental view on the JPY, and we still expect it to weaken slightly against the USD over the coming months."

13:11 USD/CNH: Expected to trade in a sideways range of 7.1970/7.2190 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a sideways range of 7.1970/7.2190. In the longer run, a breach of 7.2330 would indicate that the likelihood of USD declining to 7.1700 has faded, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a sideways range of 7.1970/7.2190. In the longer run, a breach of 7.2330 would indicate that the likelihood of USD declining to 7.1700 has faded, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Above 7.2330, the likelihood of declining to 7.1700 to fade24-HOUR VIEW: "We indicated yesterday that “While further sideways trading still seems likely, the firmer underlying tone suggests a higher range of 7.1950/7.2200.” USD traded sideways as expected, albeit in a narrower range of 7.2031/7.2154. The quiet price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect USD to trade sideways. Expected range for today: 7.1970/7.2190. 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have held a negative USD view since early last week. In our most recent narrative from Tuesday (13 May, spot at 7.2000), we noted that 'the renewed downward momentum suggests 7.1700 could be back in sight.' Since then, USD has not been able to make significant headway on the downside. However, only a breach of 7.2330 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the likelihood of USD declining to 7.1700 has faded."

13:06 USD/CNH: 2-way trades likely – OCBC
USD/CNY fix continues to come in slightly softer (and below spot) for the whole week, last seen trading at 7.2057 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD/CNY fix continues to come in slightly softer (and below spot) for the whole week, last seen trading at 7.2057 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Mild bearish momentum on daily chart intact"This morning fix was set at 7.1938 (vs. 7.1963 yesterday). We believe policymakers are likely to still adopt a measured approach to appreciation (if any) like how they took a measured approach when USD/RMB was trading higher previously. Maintaining RMB stability is a key objective for policymakers." "Any sharp RMB appreciation may trigger exporters rushing to sell their USD holdings and that cycle (if it happens) may result in excessive RMB strength and volatility, which is not desirable for policymakers at this point. USD/CNH continued to trade in subdued range." "Mild bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI was flat. 2-way trades likely. Support at 7.18 before 7.1475 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2024 low to 2025 high). Resistance at 7.2200/30 (200 DMA), 7.25 levels."

13:06 EUR/USD rises as Greenback suffers due to plunging US bond yields
EUR/USD ticks up to near 1.1200 during European trading hours on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD edges up to near 1.1200 as the US Dollar softens due to a substantial correction in US Treasury yields.US consumer and producer inflation, and Retail Sales remained soft in April.ECB’s Kazaks argued in favor of further interest rate cuts.EUR/USD ticks up to near 1.1200 during European trading hours on Friday. The major currency pair trades higher as the US Dollar (USD) faces selling pressure, tracking a sharp decline in US bond yields, after the release of the soft United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data on Thursday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges down to near 100.50. Meanwhile, 10-year US Treasury yields are down over 3% to near 4.40% from their monthly high of 4.55% posted on Thursday.The economic data showed on Thursday that the producer inflation, as measured by the PPI, declined unexpectedly in April, and Retail Sales barely grew. The notable decline of 0.7% in services prices led to deflation in the PPI, while the growth in goods prices remained flat. Meanwhile, Retail Sales rose at a moderate pace of 0.1%, compared to a robust growth of 1.5% in March. The data showed that demand for automobiles declined as households postponed their demand in the wake of a hike in selling prices by car dealers to offset the impact of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on foreign cars in March.This week, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April also grew at a slower-than-expected pace. Theoretically, soft US consumer and producer inflation boosts expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, traders have not raised dovish bets as consumer inflation expectations remain higher due to the fallout of new economic policies by US President Donald Trump. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for the Fed to leave rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50% in the June and July meetings is 91.8% and 61.4%, respectively.While Washington and Beijing have agreed to lower tariffs by 115% for 90 days and are aiming for a series of negotiations to avoid any escalation in the trade war, Fed officials believe that the current rate of tariffs is still high enough to prompt inflation. Earlier this week, Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee said, “Tariffs are still three to five times higher than what they were before, so it is going to have a stagflationary impulse on the economy. It’s going to make growth slower and make prices rise.”Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD gains at USD’s expenseEUR/USD moves higher at the expense of the US Dollar. The Euro (EUR) is broadly steady against its peers on Friday, while traders remain increasingly confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) will reduce interest rates again in the monetary policy meeting next month.Factors contributing to solid ECB dovish bets are confidence that the Eurozone inflation is on track to return to the central bank’s target of 2% this year, and the economic outlook is grim due to global uncertainty.Several ECB officials have argued in favor of continuing interest rate reduction. During European trading hours, ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks guided a dovish monetary policy outlook by saying that there may still be a “couple” of reductions in the deposit rate this year from its current level of 2.25%, Bloomberg reported. However, Kazaks cautioned that policymakers shouldn’t hurry and adopt a “meeting by meeting” approach amid the unclear global trade situation.On the economic front, Eurozone Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data has been revised lower, while Employment Change has held up. The data showed on Thursday that the Eurozone economy grew at a slower pace of 0.3%, compared to the preliminary estimate and the prior release of 0.4%. Year-on-year, the GDP growth remained 1.2%, as expected. Meanwhile, the Employment Change in the January-March period has come in higher at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, compared to flash estimates and the former reading of 0.1%. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD moves higher to near 1.1200EUR/USD rises to near 1.1200 on Friday. However, the near-term outlook of the pair is still uncertain as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is acting as a key barrier around 1.1210.The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovers strongly to 50.00 after sliding to near 40.00, suggesting indecisiveness among traders.Looking up, the April 28 high of 1.1425 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the March 18 high of 1.0955 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

13:03 USD/JPY: Upward momentum has dissipated – UOB Group
Scope for USD to grind lower and test 144.95 vs Japanese Yen (JPY); a sustained break below this level seems unlikely. In the longer run, upward momentum has dissipated; USD is expected to consolidate in a range of 144.50/148.50 for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Scope for USD to grind lower and test 144.95 vs Japanese Yen (JPY); a sustained break below this level seems unlikely. In the longer run, upward momentum has dissipated; USD is expected to consolidate in a range of 144.50/148.50 for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Scope for USD/JPY to grind lower and test 144.9524-HOUR VIEW: "Our view for USD to 'trade in a sideways range of 145.70/147.50' yesterday was incorrect, as it slipped lower to 145.41. The decline did not result in a clear increase in downward momentum. On the other hand, the softness has not quite stabilised. Today, there is scope for USD to grind lower and test 144.95. A sustained break below this level seems unlikely. The major support at 144.50 is also unlikely to come under threat. On the upside, resistance levels are at 146.00 and 146.55." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our USD view to neutral yesterday (15 May, spot 146.80). We indicated that 'upward momentum has dissipated, and USD has likely entered a consolidation phase.' We held the view that USD 'is expected to trade in a range of 144.50/148.50 for now.' There is no change in our view."

13:01 USD/JPY: Short bias on the daily charts – OCBC
USD/JPY continued to trade lower amid decline in UST yields. Pair was last at 145.59 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD/JPY continued to trade lower amid decline in UST yields. Pair was last at 145.59 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Fed-BoJ policy divergence and de-dollarisation supports USD/JPY's downside"Bullish momentum on daily chart shows signs of fading while RSI fell further. Support next at 144.15/40 levels (21 DMA, 23.6% fibo). Resistance at 146.15 (50 DMA), 147.10 (38.2% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low). We kept our short USDJPY (entered at 148 (as per FX Weekly on Mon), targeting a move towards 141. SL at 151." "We reiterate that while timing of BoJ policy normalisation may be deferred, policy normalisation is not derailed. Fed-BoJ policy divergence and USD de-dollarisation theme should still support USD/JPY's broader direction of movement to the downside."

12:56 RUB: Unrealistic optimism – Commerzbank
USD/RUB and EUR/RUB are not market-driven or floating exchange rates. Even so, at this time, these exchange rates are reflecting excessive optimism that the US administration will push for a peace treaty with Ukraine and this will involve some of the harsh sanctions on Russia being removed.

USD/RUB and EUR/RUB are not market-driven or floating exchange rates. Even so, at this time, these exchange rates are reflecting excessive optimism that the US administration will push for a peace treaty with Ukraine and this will involve some of the harsh sanctions on Russia being removed. We have revised our forecast path somewhat lower, but as base-case, we still see these exchange rates rising steadily. USD/RUB and EUR/RUB are not actual free-floating exchange rates at all, but ‘technical fixes’ which can only be used to transact a narrow group of energy and commodities. Hence, these rates mainly respond to changes in the trade balance of those commodities. We expect Russia’s current-account balance to narrow down from current levels over the next two years, which would be consistent with steady rouble depreciation, Commerzbank's FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes.FX market in Russia seems to be clearly super-optimistic "Last year, US and EU sanctions targeted the Moscow exchange (MOEX) and banned systemic energy payment processing banks, after which the rouble exchange rate became even more de-linked from underlying fundamentals. But still, USD/RUB and EUR/RUB exchange rates have at least some limited links to fundamentals (for example, via flows in CNY still being fully open, which enforces some consistency between for example USD/CNY and USD/RUB crosses). Because of such link, the rouble could recover sharply in the event that the US administration were to favour Russia and lift key sanctions. For now, we stick with our base-case that sanctions will remain in place, but the FX market in Russia seems to be clearly super-optimistic about such prospects, which has led to USD/RUB dropping sharply from above 90.0 to now 80.0 as Trump has been chasing peace talks.""The Russian economy has performed much better than was expected by international observers after hard sanctions were imposed. Unfortunately, the data are not very reliable in recent years. At present, the economy is strong because of wartime spending and import-substitution, but momentum is beginning to fade, and the strain on the budget is becoming more visible. GDP grew by 4.3% in 2024, but we forecast it to decelerate to 1.5% in 2025. Our view is that the composition of growth will progressively diverge away from that of a competitive, modern economy towards that of a commodity producer. This will negatively affect value-added in the longer-term.""The central bank (CBR) is now on hold after hiking rates significantly in 2024. We expect an extended pause as inflation pressures appear to be finally cooling down, but limited rate cuts before the end of the year. We forecast USD'RUB and EUR/RUB to steadily trend up in coming years: our end-2025 USD/RUB forecast is 95.0 and our end-2026 is 125.0."

12:52 DXY: Slight downside risk – OCBC
USD turned lower, tracking UST yields lower. DXY was last at 100.75 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD turned lower, tracking UST yields lower. DXY was last at 100.75 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Bullish momentum on daily chart "US data underwhelmed. Retail sales came in softer, PPI saw its sharpest decline in 5 years while industrial production and empire manufacturing data printed weaker than expected. Decline in USD was more pronounced vs. CHF and JPY." "Data focus shifts to import/export price index, housing starts, building permits and Uni of Michigan sentiment data. Another round of softer than expected print may further weigh on USD." "Bullish momentum on daily chart shows gradual signs of it fading while RSI eased. Slight downside risk. Support at 99.90 (21 DMA), 99 levels. Resistance at 100.80 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 peak to trough), 101.60 (50 DMA) and 102.60 (38.2% fibo)."

12:48 NZD/USD: Under mild downward pressure – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is under mild downward pressure against the US Dollar (USD); it could drift lower and test 0.5855. In the longer run, outlook is mixed; NZD is expected to trade in a 0.5835/0.6030 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is under mild downward pressure against the US Dollar (USD); it could drift lower and test 0.5855. In the longer run, outlook is mixed; NZD is expected to trade in a 0.5835/0.6030 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. NZD is expected to trade in a 0.5835/0.6030 range24-HOUR VIEW: "While we expected NZD to decline yesterday, we indicated that 'as there is no significant increase in downward momentum, it is unlikely to be able to break clearly below 0.5860.' Our analysis was not wrong, as NZD drifted to a low of 0.5862, settling at 0.5875 (-0.39%). While there is still no clear increase in downward momentum, the underlying tone remains soft. Today, NZD could drift lower and test 0.5855. The major support at 0.5835 is unlikely to come under threat. Resistance is at 0.5895; a breach of 0.5910 would suggest the mild downward pressure has eased." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from two days ago (14 May, spot at 0.5935) remains valid. As highlighted, 'the recent price movements have resulted in a mixed outlook.' For the time being, we expect NZD to trade in a 0.5835/0.6030 range."

12:42 US natural gas prices drop 3.7% on storage data – ING
US natural gas prices fell sharply after storage data from the EIA revealed a larger-than-average inventory build, reinforcing concerns over supply resilience despite year-on-year deficits, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

US natural gas prices fell sharply after storage data from the EIA revealed a larger-than-average inventory build, reinforcing concerns over supply resilience despite year-on-year deficits, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.-Gas inventories remain 14.3% below last year’s levels"US natural gas futures sold off yesterday, with Henry Hub settling 3.7% lower on the day. Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage data shows that gas storage increased by 110bcf over the last week." "This is in line with expectations, but higher than the 5-year average for an 83bcf increase. Total US natural gas storage stands at 2.255tcf, down 14.3% year-on-year, but 2.4% above the 5-year average."

12:39 S.Korea Trade Minister: Possibility that the trade deal might come after 8 July deadline
South Korea's Trade Minister Ahn Duk-geun said on Friday that “there is a possibility that the trade deal might come after the 8 July deadline.”

South Korea's Trade Minister Ahn Duk-geun said on Friday that “there is a possibility that the trade deal might come after the 8 July deadline.”Additional commentsRequested again for a waiver from US tariff measures at the APEC conference.South Korea's delegation to visit the US next week for further tariff negotiations.Emphasised the importance of the auto and steel sectors during talks with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.Has set up formal negotiation framework with the US.Next ministerial-level meeting expected to be held in the middle of June.

12:34 AUD/USD: Expected to trade between 0.6380 and 0.6445 – UOB Group
Downward momentum has not increased further; Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade between 0.6380 and 0.6445 against US Dollar (USD).

Downward momentum has not increased further; Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade between 0.6380 and 0.6445 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, a breach of 0.6370 would mean that the current price movements are part of a range trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Downward momentum has not increased further24-HOUR VIEW: "The following are the excerpts from our update yesterday: 'After rising to 0.6501, AUD pulled back to 0.6424 before closing on a soft note at 0.6429, a decline of 0.66%. There has been a slight increase in downward momentum, but instead of a sustained decline, AUD is more likely to trade in a lower range of 0.6400/0.6465.' AUD then traded between 0.6391 and 0.6457, closing lower by 0.37% at 0.6405. The price action did not result in further increase in downward momentum. Today, we expect AUD to trade between 0.6380 and 0.6445." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "When AUD was at 0.6470 on Wednesday (14 May), we indicated that 'To continue to rise, AUD must break and hold above 0.6515. 'We added, 'The chance of AUD breaking clearly above 0.6515 will increase in the next few days, provided that the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 0.6370, is not breached.' Since then, AUD drifted lower and the chance of it breaking clearly above 0.6515 has diminished. A breach of 0.6370 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would mean that the current price movements are part of a range trading phase."

12:31 Iran nuclear deal hopes – ING
The oil market sold off yesterday following comments from President Trump that the US and Iran were moving closer towards a nuclear deal, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

The oil market sold off yesterday following comments from President Trump that the US and Iran were moving closer towards a nuclear deal, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. OPEC+ countries are ramping up supply"A nuclear deal that lifts sanctions will obviously remove a lot of the supply risk hanging over the market for some time now. In addition, it would allow Iran to increase oil output with more willing buyers for its oil. This could result in additional supply in the neighborhood of 400k b/d.""Concerns over the potential for additional Iranian supply come as OPEC+ are also ramping up supply. In addition, there are plenty of concerns over the demand outlook for the market. This was evident in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) monthly oil market report, released yesterday. The IEA estimates that global oil demand growth will slow from 990k b/d in the first quarter to 650k b/d for the remainder of the year." "This sees 2025 demand growing by 740k b/d. Slowing growth reflects economic headwinds and strong EV sales. For 2026, the agency expects demand to grow by 760k b/d. The IEA expects supply to grow by 1.6m b/d in 2025 and 970k b/d in 2026. Lower oil prices prodded the IEA to lower its US supply growth estimates for this year and next."

12:23 GBP/USD: Set to trade in a range of 1.3270/1.3345 – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) could trade in a range of 1.3270/1.3345. In the longer run, GBP is likely to trade in a 1.3140/1.3405 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Pound Sterling (GBP) could trade in a range of 1.3270/1.3345. In the longer run, GBP is likely to trade in a 1.3140/1.3405 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Current price movements are part of a range trading phase24-HOUR VIEW: "In the early Asian session yesterday, we stated that 'the current price action is non-trending.' We also stated that GBP 'is likely to trade in a range between 1.3220 and 1.3320.' However, GBP traded in a narrower range of 1.3262/1.3319, closing at 1.3307, higher by 0.36%. The current price movements still appear to be non-trending. However, the firmer underlying tone suggests GBP could trade in a higher range of 1.3270/1.3345 today." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from two days ago (14 May, spot at 1.3300), we highlighted that 'the recent buildup in downward momentum has faded.' We added, 'The current price movements are part of a range trading phase, and GBP is likely to trade in a 1.3140/1.3405 range for now.' Our view remains unchanged."

12:19 USD: Dovish momentum re-emerging – ING
This week’s data flow has been quite dovish for the Federal Reserve. After the soft April CPI, PPI dropped by 0.5% month-on-month, against expectations of a 0.2% rise, with significant upward revisions for March data.

This week’s data flow has been quite dovish for the Federal Reserve. After the soft April CPI, PPI dropped by 0.5% month-on-month, against expectations of a 0.2% rise, with significant upward revisions for March data. Regarding year-on-year levels, headline PPI decreased from 3.4% to 2.4%, while core PPI fell from 4% to 3.1%. Retail sales increased by 0.1% MoM, slightly above the consensus of 0.0%. However, the control group, which excludes volatile items like gasoline, autos, and building materials, showed a decline of 0.2% MoM, against expectations of a 0.3% increase, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Risks remain skewed to the downside for DXY"The USD OIS 2Y swap rate has adjusted 10bp lower from the 3.8% peak, but does not seem to be taking the dovish signals from data at face value given the tariff distortion, and pricing for a Fed cut before September remains below 50%. The dollar short-term rates relationship has loosened in the past two months, but the market’s bearish USD tendency means further dovish repricing could prove to be the catalyst for fresh dollar short building.""There aren’t any tier-one data releases in the US today. Housing starts are expected to have increased in April, while import prices should have dropped on the back of lower oil prices. The University of Michigan surveys have some FX impact potential, especially when it comes to inflation expectations. The median response for the expected change in prices over the next year spiked from 2.8% in December to 6.5% in April. Markets are understandably treating these figures with caution: the sample size is only 500 households, and some political bias in the responses may be skewing the result.""This week’s price action suggests waning momentum for the dollar to close its lingering risk premium. The c as strategic dollar shorts remain prevalent, and the 100.0 support could be retested sooner rather than later."

12:16 Gold edges lower amid geopolitical, trade uncertainty
Gold (XAU/USD) price edges lower and struggles to hold near the $3,200 level at the time of writing on Friday as multiple questions and concerns arise in markets and amongst traders.

12:15 EUR/USD: Likely to trade between 1.1145 and 1.1235 – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is expected to continue to range trade, likely between 1.1145 and 1.1235. In the longer run, EUR is likely to consolidate between 1.1100 and 1.1290 for the time being, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Euro (EUR) is expected to continue to range trade, likely between 1.1145 and 1.1235. In the longer run, EUR is likely to consolidate between 1.1100 and 1.1290 for the time being, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. EUR is likely to consolidate for the time being24-HOUR VIEW: "Two days ago, EUR rose briefly to 1.1265 and then pulled back sharply. Yesterday, when EUR was at 1.1180, we pointed out that 'There has been no increase in either upward or downward momentum.' We were of the view that EUR 'is likely to trade in a 1.1130/1.1230 range.' Our view of range trading was not wrong, though EUR traded in a quiet manner within a narrower range of 1.1169/1.1228. Momentum indicators remain flat, and we continue to expect range trading, likely between 1.1145 and 1.1235." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our view from negative to neutral yesterday, 15 May (spot at 1.1180), indicating that EUR 'has likely entered a consolidation phase.' We also indicated that 'For the time being, we expect it to trade between 1.1100 and 1.1290.' There is no change in our view."

12:11 EUR: Tied to 1.12, but looking up – ING
The Euro (EUR) has been only marginally impacted by domestic news this week. 1Q growth was revised a touch lower from 0.4% to 0.3% yesterday, although March industrial production figures were stronger than expected, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes

The Euro (EUR) has been only marginally impacted by domestic news this week. 1Q growth was revised a touch lower from 0.4% to 0.3% yesterday, although March industrial production figures were stronger than expected, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notesBias seems to be for testing 1.130 rather than 1.110"After a moderate hawkish repricing in the wake of the US-China trade deal, markets and consensus seem to be aligning around two rate cuts by the European Central Bank this year, which is also our call. ECB speakers have so far offered very little pushback against this view." "This week, members from both sides of the spectrum - like the dovish-leaning Francois Villeroy and the hawk Klaas Knot - sounded confident that US tariffs won’t stoke eurozone inflation. Earlier, Latvia’s Martins Kazaks (hawkish-leaning) said a June cut is a 'pretty possible step'.""We still see 1.120 as a good short-term anchor for EUR/USD, although the bias seems to be for testing 1.130 rather than 1.110 in the short term on the back of lingering USD strategic selling. We have a one-month target of 1.12 and end-of-June target of 1.13."

12:01 Italy Trade Balance EU dipped from previous €-0.361B to €-2.453B in March
Italy Trade Balance EU dipped from previous €-0.361B to €-2.453B in March

12:01 Italy Global Trade Balance came in at €3.657B, below expectations (€5.2B) in March
Italy Global Trade Balance came in at €3.657B, below expectations (€5.2B) in March

12:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. climbed from previous €21B to €27.9B in March
Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. climbed from previous €21B to €27.9B in March

12:00 Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. came in at €36.8B, above forecasts (€17.5B) in March
Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. came in at €36.8B, above forecasts (€17.5B) in March

11:22 President Trump: US officials will send letters out soon to countries for trade deals
Speaking in Abu Dhabi on Friday, US President Donald Trump said that “his official will will send letters out soon to countries for trade deals.”

11:16 Fed’s Bostic sees just one rate cuts this year amid uncertainty
Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) President Raphael Bostic said on Friday that he “sees just one rate cuts this year amid uncertainty.”

11:09 Forex Today: Market focus shifts to US consumer sentiment data
Here is what you need to know on Friday, May 16:

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (2%) in April: Actual (1.9%)
Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (2%) in April: Actual (1.9%)

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.2%) in April
Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.2%) in April

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) came in at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in April
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) came in at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in April

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) below expectations (2.1%) in April: Actual (2%)
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) below expectations (2.1%) in April: Actual (2%)

10:48 Pound Sterling advances against US Dollar on soft US PPI, Retail Sales data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) rises further to near 1.3330 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s European session, extending Thursday’s upside move.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling moves higher to near 1.3330 against the US Dollar as the Greenback suffers after the release of weak US economic data.The Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady in the next two policy meetings.Investors await the UK CPI data next week for fresh cues about the BoE’s monetary policy outlook.The Pound Sterling (GBP) rises further to near 1.3330 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s European session, extending Thursday’s upside move. The GBP/USD pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) remains on the backfoot after the release of the softer-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data for April.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades lower to near 100.50.US PPI data showed that producer prices unexpectedly fell compared with the previous month due to a sharp slowdown in the hospitality sector. According to a report from Reuters, the producer inflation was pulled down by a sharp drop in tourist travel, which hurt airline ticket sales, hotel, and motel bookings. The report also showed signs that tourists are boycotting travelling to the US in the wake of President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policy, immigration crackdown, as well as references to Canada as the 51st state, and a desire to acquire Greenland.Soft Retail Sales data has also weighed on the US Dollar. Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, rose by just 0.1%, substantially slower than the March reading of 1.5%. It appears that households rushed to shops in March in anticipation of reciprocal tariffs to be introduced by US President Trump. Auto sales contracted by 0.1%, against a 5.5% surge seen in March. Also, durable items saw a moderate growth of 0.3% in April compared to a robust increase of 1.5% in the prior month.Cooling producer inflation and soft Retail Sales data have led to a sharp correction in 10-year US Treasury Yields from their month high of 4.55% posted on Thursday to near 4.40% during European trading hours on Friday.Despite the soft data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates unchanged in the next two policy meetings remained broadly steady as officials seem to be more inclined towards bringing consumer inflation expectations down rather than lowering borrowing rates to heal current economic concerns. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for the Fed to leave rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50% in the June and July meetings is at 91.8% and 61.4%, respectively.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling corrects against its major peersThe Pound Sterling retraces against its major peers, except for the US Dollar, on Friday after a strong upside move the previous day. The British currency attracted significant bids on Thursday after the release of United Kingdom (UK) monthly and quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which showed that the economy expanded at a faster-than-expected pace.Strong GDP growth rate has provided room for Bank of England (BoE) officials to maintain interest rates at their current levels if inflation persists or even accelerates.. This week, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill warned that inflation could continue to prove stronger-than-expected: “I remain concerned that we have seen a sort of structural change in price and wage-setting behaviour, maybe driven by the type of things that were involved in models of the inflation process from the ’70s and ’80s.". He stressed that high inflation would strengthen the need to maintain interest rates higher. Pill was one of the two Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members, along with Catherine Mann, who voted to leave interest rates unchanged in the policy meeting last week. The BoE reduced its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%.To get fresh cues on the UK inflation, investors await the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, which will be released on Wednesday. Signs of cooling inflationary pressures would add to market expectations that the BoE will cut interest rates again in the policy meeting in June.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling jumps above 1.3300The Pound Sterling climbs above 1.3300 against the US Dollar on Friday. The GBP/USD pair holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.3256, suggesting that the near-term trend is bullish.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range. A fresh bullish momentum would appear if the RSI breaks above 60.00.On the upside, the three-year high of 1.3445 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the psychological level of 1.3000 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:38 WTI falls to near $61.00, weekly gains capped by global oversupply concerns
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price continues its losing streak for the third successive session, trading around 61.10 per barrel during the early European hours on Friday.

10:03 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates edge higher at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Friday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 95.92, with the EUR/INR pair rising from its previous close at 95.69.

09:59 AUD/JPY hovers around 93.00, downside appears due to stronger Japanese Yen
AUD/JPY remains subdued around 93.20 during Asian trading hours on Friday, extending its losses for the third successive session. The currency cross has given up its daily gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) appreciates despite weaker domestic data.

09:56 GBP/JPY attracts some sellers below 193.50 despite Japan’s downbeat GDP data
The GBP/JPY cross extends its downside to near 193.40 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) despite Japan’s disappointing GDP report.

09:39 Palladium price today: Rare metals down at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Friday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $959.22 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $964.05.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Friday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $959.22 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $964.05.In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $991.20 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, also under pressure after the XPT/USD pair settled at $994.10 at the previous close.

09:30 Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY) up to 8.5% in 1Q from previous 2.3%
Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY) up to 8.5% in 1Q from previous 2.3%

09:08 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.14 per barrel, down from Thursday’s close at $61.24.

09:03 EUR/GBP rises above 0.8400, recovers ground due to strong Euro performance
EUR/GBP is rebounding from recent losses, trading near 0.8420 during Friday’s Asian session.

08:37 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Extends the range play below 200-day SMA, 1.4000 mark
The USD/CAD pair attracts some sellers for the second straight day on Friday, though it remains confined in a range held since the beginning of this week. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-1.3900s, down over 0.10% for the day amid a combination of negative factors.

08:36 USD/CHF extends downside below 0.8350 on soft inflation reports
The USD/CHF pair extends the decline to around 0.8340 during the early European session on Friday. Soft US producer prices and consumer inflation weigh on the US Dollar (USD). Later on Friday, investors will focus on the release of the Swiss Producer and Import Prices report for April.

08:30 France ILO Unemployment in line with forecasts (7.4%) in 1Q
France ILO Unemployment in line with forecasts (7.4%) in 1Q

08:23 FX option expiries for May 16 NY cut
FX option expiries for May 16 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for May 16 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1075 2.2b1.1100 840m1.1150 1.6b1.1200 5.1b1.1225 1.6b1.1300 912m1.1330 1.2bGBP/USD: GBP amounts1.3100 447m1.3305 463mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 145.00 903m146.85 823m147.75 1.1b148.00 772mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6420 899m0.6475 604m0.6540 656mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3850 1.2b1.3975 965m1.3985 883m1.4000 2.5b1.4105 728mNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.5780 470m0.5795 461m0.5875 446m

08:16 ECB’s Kazaks: Meeting-by-meeting approach is right
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Martins Kazaks said on Friday that “meeting-by-meeting approach is right.”

08:13 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Tests support zone near 162.50, ascending channel’s lower boundary
EUR/JPY extends its losing streak for the third successive session, trading around 162.80 during the Asian hours on Friday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the currency cross remains within an ascending channel, suggesting a bullish bias is in play.

08:12 ECB’s Villeroy: We are not currently in a currency war but rather a trade war situation
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Friday that “we are not currently in a currency war but rather a trade war situation.”

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Friday that “we are not currently in a currency war but rather a trade war situation.”“Protectionism and uncertainty are having a negative impact on US economic confidence,” he added.

08:09 China’s Vice President Han: There is ample room for collaboration between US and China
China's Vice President Han Zheng said on Friday that “there is ample room for collaboration between the US and China.”

07:35 US Dollar Index (DXY) Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable near 100.70; break below 200-period SMA on H4 awaited
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, trades with a negative bias for the second straight day on Friday, though the intraday downtick lacks bearish conviction.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 8,842.47 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 8,908.96 it cost on Thursday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 103,144.70 per tola from INR 103,911.70 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,842.47 10 Grams 88,424.86 Tola 103,144.70 Troy Ounce 275,022.80 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls refrain from placing aggressive bets amid trade optimism The US and China agreed to significantly lower tariffs and initiated a 90-day pause to finalize a broader deal, marking a de-escalation of a disruptive standoff between the world's two largest economies. Moreover, US President Trump pointed to ongoing negotiations with India, Japan, and South Korea. Negotiators from Russia and Ukraine, as well as a delegation from the US, are currently in Istanbul, Turkey, for the first direct peace talks in three years. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin's absence has already dashed hopes for any breakthrough toward ending the prolonged war. Meanwhile, Israel’s military intensifies its carnage across the Gaza Strip since dawn on Thursday, and the relentless assault, so far, has killed at least 143 Palestinians. This keeps geopolitical risks in play, which, along with the lack of any US Dollar buying interest, could support the safe-haven Gold price. A duo of weaker economic reports released from the US on Thursday reaffirmed market bets for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This, in turn, dragged the US Treasury bond yields sharply lower and undermined the buck, lending some support to the non-yielding yellow metal. The US Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.5% in April, marking the first monthly decline since 2023. This comes on top of softer US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, which rose at the lowest annual rate since February 2021, and further pointed to signs of easing inflationary pressures. Separately, the US Department of Commerce reported that Retail Sales rose 0.1% in April compared to the previous month's upwardly revised growth of 1.7%. This increases the likelihood that the US economy will experience several quarters of sluggish growth and reaffirms dovish Fed expectations. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:33 Japan Capacity Utilization: -2.4% (March) vs previous -1.1%
Japan Capacity Utilization: -2.4% (March) vs previous -1.1%

07:32 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) up to 1% in March from previous -0.3%
Japan Industrial Production (YoY) up to 1% in March from previous -0.3%

07:31 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) above forecasts (-1.1%) in March: Actual (0.2%)
Japan Industrial Production (MoM) above forecasts (-1.1%) in March: Actual (0.2%)

07:25 GBP/USD drifts higher above 1.3300 on softer US Dollar, upbeat UK GDP data
The GBP/USD pair edges higher to around 1.3310 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The Greenback weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) as downside surprises in the US economic data this week raise bets of more Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year.

07:23 EUR/USD rebounds to near 1.1200 ahead of UoM Consumer Sentiment Index release
EUR/USD has recovered its daily losses, trading around 1.1200 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair receives support as the US Dollar (USD) weakens following the recent economic data released on Thursday.

07:13 BoJ’s Nakamura: Economic uncertainty heightening, so cautious policy approach necessary
Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Toyoaki Nakamura said on Friday that “uncertainty over economic outlook heightening, so cautious monetary policy approach is necessary.”

07:02 Gold price stalls recovery from over one-month low near 200-period SMA on H4
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's strong recovery move from the $3,120 region, or the lowest level since April 10, and attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Friday.

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The US-China trade truce for 90 days has eased some of the pressure on global markets and is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the safe-haven bullion. However, persistent geopolitical risks and a softer US Dollar (USD) might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the commodity amid bets for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).The incoming US macro data pointed to signs of inflationary pressures and backed the case for further policy easing by the US central bank. This leads to a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields, keeping the USD bulls on the defensive and should act as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold price. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for the resumption of the precious metal's pullback from the all-time peak touched in April. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair remains on track to register weekly losses amid the trade optimism.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls refrain from placing aggressive bets amid trade optimismThe US and China agreed to significantly lower tariffs and initiated a 90-day pause to finalize a broader deal, marking a de-escalation of a disruptive standoff between the world's two largest economies. Moreover, US President Trump pointed to ongoing negotiations with India, Japan, and South Korea.Negotiators from Russia and Ukraine, as well as a delegation from the US, are currently in Istanbul, Turkey, for the first direct peace talks in three years. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin's absence has already dashed hopes for any breakthrough toward ending the prolonged war. Meanwhile, Israel’s military intensifies its carnage across the Gaza Strip since dawn on Thursday, and the relentless assault, so far, has killed at least 143 Palestinians. This keeps geopolitical risks in play, which, along with the lack of any US Dollar buying interest, could support the safe-haven Gold price. A duo of weaker economic reports released from the US on Thursday reaffirmed market bets for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This, in turn, dragged the US Treasury bond yields sharply lower and undermined the buck, lending some support to the non-yielding yellow metal.The US Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.5% in April, marking the first monthly decline since 2023. This comes on top of softer US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, which rose at the lowest annual rate since February 2021, and further pointed to signs of easing inflationary pressures.Separately, the US Department of Commerce reported that Retail Sales rose 0.1% in April compared to the previous month's upwardly revised growth of 1.7%. This increases the likelihood that the US economy will experience several quarters of sluggish growth and reaffirms dovish Fed expectations. Gold price needs to surpass the $3,252-3,255 immediate barrier for bulls to seize near-term controlFrom a technical perspective, the goodish recovery move from over a one-month low falters near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, around the $3,252-3,255 zone, amid still negative oscillators on the daily chart. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the XAU/USD pair's downfall witnessed over the past week or so has run its course and placing fresh bullish bets. In the meantime, weakness back below the $3,200 mark might now find some support near the $3,178-3,177 region. Some follow-through selling could make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerating the slide back towards the overnight swing low, around the $3,120 area. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $3,100 mark en route to the next relevant support near the $3,060 region.On the flip side, the $3,252-3,255 area might continue to act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained strength beyond might trigger a fresh bout of short-covering rally and allow the Gold price to reclaim the $3,300 mark. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which, if cleared decisively, could negate any near-term negative bias and shift the bias in favor of bullish traders, paving the way for further gains. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

06:14 NZD/USD inches higher to near 0.5900 following Q2 RBNZ Inflation Expectations release
NZD/USD halts its two-day losing streak, trading around 0.5890 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair advances after the release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Inflation Expectations for Q2 2025.

06:09 RBNZ Survey: NZ two-year inflation expectations rise to 2.29% QoQ in Q1 2025
New Zealand's (NZ) inflation expectations accelerated on a 12-month and a two-year time frame for the second quarter of 2025, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) latest monetary conditions survey showed on Friday.

06:01 New Zealand RBNZ Inflation Expectations (QoQ): 2.29% (2Q) vs 2.06%
New Zealand RBNZ Inflation Expectations (QoQ): 2.29% (2Q) vs 2.06%

05:35 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD hovers near $32.50 amid US ban news on China’s chip firms
Silver (XAG/USD) is pulling back from its recent gains seen in the previous session, hovering around $32.50 during Friday’s Asian trading hours.

05:29 Japanese Yen advances to fresh weekly top against USD despite weaker GDP
The Japanese Yen (JPY) scales higher against its American counterpart for the fourth straight day and touches a fresh weekly top during the Asian session on Friday.

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Bets for more rate cuts by the Fed keep the USD depressed and weigh on USD/JPY. The Japanese Yen (JPY) scales higher against its American counterpart for the fourth straight day and touches a fresh weekly top during the Asian session on Friday. The JPY buying remains unabated following Japan's weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP print amid the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again. Furthermore, trade negotiations between the US and Japan appear to be progressing as officials continue to meet regularly, which turns out to be another factor lending support to the JPY.The aforementioned factors overshadow the latest optimism led by receding fears of an all-out global trade war, which recently drove investors toward risk assets and away from traditional safe-haven assets, including the JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, continues with its struggle to attract buyers as signs of easing inflationary pressures and weaker consumer spending data reaffirmed bets for more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This marks a sharp divergence from hawkish BoJ expectations and favors the JPY bulls. Japanese Yen bulls shrug off weaker Q1 GDP print amid BoJ rate hike betsThe preliminary reading released by Japan’s Cabinet Office earlier this Friday showed that the economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to a 0.1% decline expected and a growth of 0.6% in the previous quarter. On an annualized basis, Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrank much more than consensus estimates, by 0.7% during the January to March period – marking the first decline in a year.The Bank of Japan's April 30-May 1 Summary of Opinions released earlier this week revealed that policymakers haven't given up on hiking interest rates further. Moreover, some BoJ board members saw scope to resume rate hikes after a temporary pause if developments over U.S. tariffs stabilise. Moreover, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida signaled the central bank’s resolve to maintain its rate-hike stance on Tuesday. A Reuters survey published on Thursday indicated that most economists expect that the BoJ will hold interest rates through September, although a slight majority still see at least a 25-basis-point hike by the end of this year. This comes amid reports that Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, could travel to Washington as soon as next week for a third round of trade talks with the US, underpinning the Japanese Yen. The report further stated that Japan is considering a package of proposals to gain US concessions. Moreover, Akazawa said that the government will continue to demand review of US tariffs and take all necessary steps to offer liquidity aid to impacted firms. Earlier, Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said that he would seek to meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to discuss foreign exchange in line with points agreed in prior talks.The US and China agreed to de-escalate the potentially damaging trade war and slash steep tariffs for at least 90 days. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump said this week that he could see himself dealing directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping on details of a trade pact. This, along with prospects for further policy easing by the Federal Reserve, remains supportive of a positive risk tone, though it does little to impact the safe-haven JPY. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Thursday that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) declined 0.5% in April and rose 2.4% on a yearly basis. Furthermore, the annual core PPI rose 3.1% during the reported month, down from 4% in March. The softer-than-expected prints suggested a decrease in the prices of goods sold by manufacturers, which can be a precursor to a dip in the overall consumer price inflation.Separately, the US Department of Commerce stated that Retail Sales rose slightly by 0.1% in April compared to the previous month's upwardly revised growth of 1.7%. This increases the likelihood that the US economy will experience several quarters of sluggish growth and boosts bets for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, dragging the US Treasury bond yields sharply lower and keeping the US Dollar bulls on the defensive. USD/JPY could weaken further below 145.00 and test the 200-period SMA on the H4 timeframeFrom a technical standpoint, the intraday downfall drags the USD/JPY pair below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent goodish recovery from the year-to-date low. Given that oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction, acceptance below the 145.00 psychological mark could drag spot prices to the 144.55 area. The latter represents the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance breakpoint on the 4-hour chart, which is closely followed by the 50% Fibo. level, around the 144.30 region. A convincing break below the said support levels might shift the near-term bias back in favor of bearish traders and pave the way for deeper losses.On the flip side, the Asian session peak, around the 145.70 region, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 146.00 round figure. Any further move up could be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the 146.60 area, or the 23.6% Fibo. level. A sustained move beyond the latter, however, might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the USD/JPY pair beyond the 147.00 mark, towards the 147.70 intermediate hurdle en route to the 148.00 round figure. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Japan’s Cabinet Office on a quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in Japan during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of Japan’s economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu May 15, 2025 23:50 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Actual: -0.2% Consensus: -0.1% Previous: 0.6% Source: Japanese Cabinet Office

05:21 USD/INR slumps as lower crude oil prices support Indian Rupee
The Indian Rupee (INR) recovers some lost ground, snapping the three-day losing streak on Friday. A fall in crude oil prices amid reports that the US and Iran are getting closer to a deal on the country’s nuclear program provides some support to the INR.

04:48 Australian Dollar struggles as Trump administration plans to blacklist Chinese chipmakers
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its decline against the US Dollar (USD) for a third consecutive session on Friday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar faces headwinds as the Trump administration moves to add several Chinese chipmakers to its export blacklist.The AUD remains under pressure despite a strong Australian labor market report showing solid job gains in April.The US Dollar continues to trade within a narrow range, as recent US economic data has sent mixed signals to the market.The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its decline against the US Dollar (USD) for a third consecutive session on Friday. The AUD remains under pressure, possibly due to reports that the Trump administration is planning to add several Chinese chipmakers to its export blacklist, known as the "entity list." Given the close trade relationship between Australia and China, any disruption in the Chinese market can significantly impact the Aussie Dollar.According to the Financial Times, Trump administration officials expressed concern late Thursday that imposing export controls on key Chinese firms at this stage could undermine the recently reached trade agreement between China and the US during talks in Geneva over the weekend.The AUD struggles despite a strong Australian labor market report, which reported robust job growth in April. The AUD/USD pair struggled even as the Greenback weakened following economic data that fueled speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) could resume interest rate cuts in the coming months.The risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair also failed to benefit from easing global trade tensions. A senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Shamkhani, stated on Wednesday that Iran is ready to sign a nuclear deal with US President Donald Trump. Additionally, the US and China reached a preliminary agreement, under which the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will lower its tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%.Australian Dollar struggles despite a weaker US Dollar amid improved risk sentimentThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading lower at around 100.60 at the time of writing. US economic data this week has delivered mixed signals—highlighting the economy’s resilience while also indicating a slowdown in growth momentum, which has kept the dollar confined to a narrow trading range.The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in April, easing from the 2.7% increase in March and falling short of the market expectation of 2.5%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed 3.1% annually, down from the previous 4%. On a monthly basis, headline PPI dropped 0.5%, while core PPI fell 0.4%.US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 10 stood at 229,000, unchanged from the revised figure for the previous week, and in line with expectations, according to the US Department of Labor (DOL). Continuing Jobless Claims rose by 9,000 to reach 1.881 million for the week ending May 3.US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.3% year-over-year in April, slightly below the 2.4% increase recorded in March and market expectations of 2.4%. Core CPI—which excludes food and energy—also climbed 2.8% annually, matching both the previous figure and forecasts. On a monthly basis, both headline CPI and core CPI rose by 0.2% in April.US President Donald Trump told Fox News that he is working to gain greater access to China, describing the relationship as excellent and expressing willingness to negotiate directly with President Xi on a potential deal.According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), employment surged by 89,000 in April, significantly higher than the 36,400 increase in March and far above the forecasted 20,000. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.1%.Australia's seasonally adjusted Wage Price Index rose by 3.4% year-over-year in Q1 2025, up from a 3.2% increase in Q1 2024 and surpassing market forecasts of a 3.2% gain. This marks a recovery from the prior quarter, which recorded the slowest wage growth since Q3 2022. On a quarterly basis, the index climbed 0.9% in Q1, surpassing the projected 0.8% rise.Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was sworn in for a second term on Tuesday after a decisive election victory. Key cabinet positions—including treasurer, foreign affairs, defense, and trade—remain unchanged. Albanese is scheduled to attend the inauguration Mass of Pope Leo XIV in Rome on Sunday, where he will also meet with leaders such as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to discuss trade relations.Easing global trade tensions have prompted investors to dial back expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts in Australia. Markets now project the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to reduce the cash rate to approximately 3.1% by year-end, a revision from earlier forecasts of 2.85%. Nevertheless, the RBA is still widely expected to proceed with a 25 basis point cut at its upcoming policy meeting.Australian Dollar finds support around 0.6400 after breaking below nine-day EMAAUD/USD is hovering around 0.6410 on Friday. Technical analysis on the daily chart indicates a bearish bias, as the pair is trading below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 level, signaling that some bullish momentum persists despite the downside pressure.Immediate support lies at the psychological level of 0.6400, followed by the 50-day EMA around 0.6355. A decisive break below these levels could deteriorate the short- to medium-term outlook and pave the way for a deeper slide toward 0.5914 — a low last seen in March 2020.On the upside, resistance is seen at the nine-day EMA near 0.6417. A break above this could lead the pair to retest the six-month high of 0.6515, recorded on December 2, 2024. A sustained rally beyond that point may target the seven-month high of 0.6687 from November 2024.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.20% -0.09% -0.38% -0.06% -0.04% 0.07% -0.34% EUR 0.20% 0.11% -0.20% 0.13% 0.16% 0.26% -0.14% GBP 0.09% -0.11% -0.29% 0.03% 0.06% 0.16% -0.24% JPY 0.38% 0.20% 0.29% 0.33% 0.33% 0.42% 0.04% CAD 0.06% -0.13% -0.03% -0.33% 0.00% 0.13% -0.27% AUD 0.04% -0.16% -0.06% -0.33% -0.00% 0.11% -0.30% NZD -0.07% -0.26% -0.16% -0.42% -0.13% -0.11% -0.41% CHF 0.34% 0.14% 0.24% -0.04% 0.27% 0.30% 0.41% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

04:38 Japan’s Akazawa: Government will continue to demand review of US tariffs
Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Friday that the government will continue to demand a review of US tariffs and take all necessary steps to offer liquidity aid to impacted firms.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1938 vs. 7.1963 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 7.1938 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1963 and 7.2085 Reuters estimate.

03:57 WTI declines below $61.50 amid hopes of US-Iran nuclear deal
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $61.20 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI price edges lower on expectations that the United States (US) and Iran may soon reach a deal over Tehran’s nuclear program.

03:03 Japan’s Kato says will discuss FX with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said on Friday that he would seek to meet US reasury Secretary Scott Bessent to discuss foreign exchange. Kato added that excessive FX moves damage the Japanese economy.

02:53 Japan’s GDP contracts 0.2% QoQ in Q1 2025 vs -0.1 expected
The Japanese economy contracted by 0.2% QoQ over the quarter in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, following a growth of 0.6% increase in the final quarter of 2024, the preliminary reading released by Japan’s Cabinet Office showed on Friday. Markets expected a 0.1% decline.

The Japanese economy contracted by 0.2% QoQ over the quarter in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, following a growth of 0.6% increase in the final quarter of 2024, the preliminary reading released by Japan’s Cabinet Office showed on Friday. Markets expected a 0.1% decline.

02:51 Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) above forecasts (3.2%) in 1Q: Actual (3.3%)
Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) above forecasts (3.2%) in 1Q: Actual (3.3%)

02:50 Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below forecasts (-0.1%) in 1Q: Actual (-0.2%)
Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below forecasts (-0.1%) in 1Q: Actual (-0.2%)

02:50 Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at -0.7% below forecasts (-0.2%) in 1Q
Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at -0.7% below forecasts (-0.2%) in 1Q

02:38 Trump administration split on timing of adding Chinese chipmakers to export blacklist - FT
The Financial Times reported late Thursday that the Trump administration has planned to put a number of Chinese chipmaking companies on an export blacklist (the “entity list”).

02:29 EUR/USD whipsaws on Thursday to end right where it started
EUR/USD whipsawed on Thursday, briefly dipping back below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and tapping the 1.1000 level for the second time in a week. A late recovery pushed Fiber bids back to where they started the trading day, near the 1.1200 handle.

02:18 GBP/USD holds in consolidation pattern as data beats expectations on Wednesday
GBP/USD turned lower on Thursday, shaving off a few points and keeping bids stuck to a near-term consolidation range just south of 1.3300 as markets got more or less what they wanted from economic data releases during both the London and American market sessions.

02:13 USD/CAD loses ground to near 1.3950 on weak US economic data
The USD/CAD pair loses ground to near 1.3955 during the early Asian session on Friday. The Greenback weakens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as US economic data fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume interest rate cuts in the coming months.

01:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI climbed from previous 53.2 to 53.9 in April
New Zealand Business NZ PMI climbed from previous 53.2 to 53.9 in April

01:04 Mexican Peso falls as Banxico cuts rates, USD/MXN rises
The Mexican Peso (MXN) depreciated against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after the Banco de Mexico (Banxico) reduced rates as expected, amid weaker-than-expected economic data from the United States (US). At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 19.49, up 0.61%.

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At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 19.49, up 0.61%.Recently, Banxico lowered its interest rate by 50 basis points (bps), as expected, to 8.50%, marking the seventh consecutive rate cut by the Mexican institution. The central bank’s decision was unanimous and weighed on the Mexican currency, which, since the beginning of the North American session, was losing ground against the Greenback.In the US, inflation data on the producer side showed that the disinflation process continued in April, indicating progress despite trade policies implemented by President Donald Trump keeping investors uncertain about the global economic outlook.Further data revealed that consumer spending is cooling, as shown by April’s Retail Sales, and that the labor market remains solid, following the latest release of Initial Jobless Claims figures.In the US, the economic docket will feature the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment poll for June.Daily digest market movers: Banxico’s decision tumbles the PesoBanxico reduced interest rates as expected, with unanimous support. In its policy statement, the central bank stated that it would continue to “calibrate” monetary policy, anticipating that the current inflationary environment would allow it to continue the easing cycle.Mexico’s central bank statement added that cuts by the same magnitude are on the table, and despite upward revising their inflation projections, the board expects headline prices to converge to the 3% goal by Q3 2026.Officials at Banxico added that the changes in economic policy by the US administration have introduced uncertainty to the forecasts.The interest rate differential between Mexico and the US is reducing. Therefore, Banxico’s dovish stance could cap Peso’s advance and exert upward pressure on the USD/MXN pair.Goldman Sachs has upwardly revised Mexico’s economic growth for 2025 to 0% from the previously projected 0.5% contraction.Recently, Mexico’s Economy Minister, Marcelo Ebrard, announced that the USMCA revision will commence in the second half of 2025.Notably, investors reduced their bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will only cut rates twice this year, rather than three times, as indicated by data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).The December 2025 fed funds rates futures contract shows that market players expect 54 basis points of easing.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso treads water, with USD/MXN poised to test 19.50The USD/MXN downtrend paused as the pair edged up before and after the Banxico decision. Nevertheless, failure to achieve a daily close above 19.50 could pave the way for a Mexican Peso recovery, which could send the pair drifting toward the 19.00 figure.Once that level is taken out, the next support would be August 19, 2024, swing low of 18.59. Conversely, if USD/MXN climbs past the 19.50 area and reaches a three-day high of 19.66, surpassing the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), it may retreat somewhat. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

01:02 AUD/NZD price analysis: Aussie holds steady near 1.0900 despite overbought signals
The AUD/NZD pair remained stable around the 1.0900 zone on Thursday, reflecting a cautiously bullish tone as the market heads into the Asian session.

AUD/NZD trades around the 1.0900 zone with minimal movements on Thursday.Mixed signals from momentum indicators as overbought conditions emerge.Key support sits below, while resistance levels cluster around recent highs.The AUD/NZD pair remained stable around the 1.0900 zone on Thursday, reflecting a cautiously bullish tone as the market heads into the Asian session. Price action remains within the middle of its daily range, suggesting that buyers are still in control, but the emergence of overbought conditions across several momentum indicators raises the risk of a short-term correction.From a technical perspective, the pair presents a mixed outlook. The Relative Strength Index hovers in the 60s, indicating generally neutral momentum without immediate overbought pressure, though nearing a potentially overextended zone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence supports the broader uptrend with a clear buy signal, aligning with the short-term moving averages like the 10-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages, which also favor further gains.However, the Williams Percent Range (14) and Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) both trade in overbought territory, suggesting a possible near-term pullback if recent gains cannot be sustained. The Ultimate Oscillator, trading in the 60s, adds to the cautious tone, highlighting the risk of a corrective move despite the broader bullish backdrop.In terms of support and resistance, the short-term structure remains constructive, with key support levels identified near 1.0870 and 1.0859. Immediate resistance sits around 1.0916, 1.0924, and 1.0946. A clear break above these resistance levels could confirm a broader bullish continuation, while a failure to hold current levels might trigger a deeper correction toward the lower end of the recent range.Daily Chart

00:33 AUD/USD edges lower as US Dollar steadies despite strong Aussie jobs data
The AUD/USD pair is trading near the 0.6400 zone, retreating from earlier highs as the US Dollar regains strength.

AUD/USD trades near 0.6400, giving back early session gains after strong Australian jobs data.US Dollar steadies as DXY holds just below 101.00 amid mixed economic data.Technical signals remain mixed, with neutral RSI and conflicting SMA trends around key levels.The AUD/USD pair is trading near the 0.6400 zone, retreating from earlier highs as the US Dollar regains strength. This pullback follows a solid Australian labor market report, which showed a robust 89,000 jobs gain in April, significantly exceeding the 22,500 expected and marking a sharp recovery from the prior month. Despite this, the Australian Dollar struggled to maintain momentum as broader market sentiment turned cautious ahead of US economic data releases, including Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures.Fundamentally, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains under pressure, trading just below 101.00. US data this week painted a mixed picture, with Retail Sales rising just 0.1% in April and the PPI cooling to 2.4% annually, both missing expectations. Additionally, weekly jobless claims held steady at 229K, reflecting a stable yet cautious labor market. These figures suggest that while the US economy remains resilient, growth momentum is slowing, keeping the Greenback within a tight range.Technical AnalysisTechnically, AUD/USD signals remain mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 50, reflecting neutral conditions. The MACD suggests selling momentum, aligning with the short-term bias, while Momentum (10) also leans bearish. The Stochastic RSI Fast in the 30s and the Ultimate Oscillator around the 40s further reinforce this neutral to slightly bearish tone. Key support levels are found at 0.6400, 0.6398, and 0.6378, while immediate resistance lies at 0.6412, 0.6414, and 0.6419. The 20-day SMA supports the selling bias, while the 100-day SMA offers a more bullish signal, indicating a complex technical outlook.With the market still digesting mixed US data and awaiting further guidance from the Federal Reserve, AUD/USD may struggle to break out of its current range, especially if US economic releases continue to highlight a cooling but resilient economy.Daily Chart

00:05 NZD/JPY price analysis: Cross holds bearish tone ahead of Asian session
The NZD/JPY cross is trading near the 85.50 zone on Thursday, down approximately 1% as it sits mid-range within its recent fluctuation ahead of the Asian session.

NZD/JPY trades near the 85.50 zone, reflecting a bearish tone with minor losses.Momentum is mixed, with short-term buy signals clashing with broader selling pressure.Key support rests around 85.50, with resistance near 85.60 and 86.10.The NZD/JPY cross is trading near the 85.50 zone on Thursday, down approximately 1% as it sits mid-range within its recent fluctuation ahead of the Asian session. Despite the broader bearish tone, conflicting technical signals suggest the cross may face further volatility in the near term, with mixed momentum indicators adding to the uncertain outlook.From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the 50s, reflecting neutral momentum as recent gains and losses balance each other out. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals ongoing buy momentum, providing a short-term counter to the broader bearish sentiment. However, the Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28) remains in the 40s, while the Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) trades in the 60s, both reinforcing a more neutral tone.Momentum (10) stands out as a more direct bearish signal, aligning with the overall negative trend. This is further supported by the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which indicate ongoing selling pressure, despite the 20-day SMA suggesting a potential short-term recovery. Additionally, the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 10-day SMA, both in the 80s, also align with the sell side, reinforcing the cautious outlook for the cross.Immediate support is identified around 85.57, followed by deeper levels at 85.49 and 85.42. On the upside, resistance is expected near 85.63, with stronger barriers at 85.69 and 86.09, potentially capping gains in the near term.Daily Chart

00:00 South Korea Export Price Growth (YoY) fell from previous 6.3% to 0.7% in April
South Korea Export Price Growth (YoY) fell from previous 6.3% to 0.7% in April

00:00 South Korea Import Price Growth (YoY) down to -2.3% in April from previous 3.4%
South Korea Import Price Growth (YoY) down to -2.3% in April from previous 3.4%

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23:11 Mexican Peso set for weekly gains as weak US data offsets Banxico's rate cut The Mexican Peso (MXN) erases its previous losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday and Is set to finish the week with gains.

23:01 NZD/USD steadies near 0.5890 after data-driven rebound, but broader bias remains weak NZD/USD is trading slightly higher near 0.5890 during early Friday trading, recovering from recent losses as upbeat domestic data supports the Kiwi.

23:00 United States Total Net TIC Flows dipped from previous $284.7B to $254.3B in March United States Total Net TIC Flows dipped from previous $284.7B to $254.3B in March

23:00 United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows registered at $161.8B above expectations ($44.2B) in March United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows registered at $161.8B above expectations ($44.2B) in March

22:31 United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions up to 185.3K from previous 175.4K United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions up to 185.3K from previous 175.4K

22:31 United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions dipped from previous $-76.4K to $-122.2K United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions dipped from previous $-76.4K to $-122.2K

22:31 Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions down to ¥172.3K from previous ¥176.9K Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions down to ¥172.3K from previous ¥176.9K

22:31 United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions down to £27.2K from previous £29.2K United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions down to £27.2K from previous £29.2K

22:31 United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $161.2K vs previous $162.5K United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $161.2K vs previous $162.5K

22:31 Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions rose from previous €75.7K to €84.8K Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions rose from previous €75.7K to €84.8K

22:30 Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions declined to $-49.3K from previous $-48.4K Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions declined to $-49.3K from previous $-48.4K

22:13 Canadian Dollar backslides once again, remains rangebound The Canadian Dollar (CAD) continued its back-and-forth pattern against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The Loonie pared away the previous day’s gains and kept USD/CAD pinned near the 1.4000 handle.

21:14 WTI crude oil rebounds above $61 as bulls defend $55 base, upside capped by Iran, OPEC+ supply risk West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading around $62 on Friday ahead of the weekend, staging a modest rebound after snapping a two-day losing streak.

21:07 USD/JPY lifts as Japan’s GDP shrinks and USD stays supported on inflation fears USD/JPY is moving higher on Friday as traders respond to weak growth figures from Japan and rising inflation expectations in the United States.

20:32 Dow Jones Industrial Average tests higher despite slump in consumer sentiment The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stepped into fresh weekly highs on Friday after investors shrugged off the second-worst print from the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index on record.

20:30 USD/CHF limited upside as tariff uncertainty weighs on sentiment The USD/CHF pair is trading higher on Friday, testing a significant resistance zone near 0.8380 as traders digest mixed economic signals from the United States and ongoing global trade tensions.

20:02 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count fell from previous 474 to 473 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count fell from previous 474 to 473

19:40 EUR/USD price analysis: Pair drifts lower amid bearish pressure The EUR/USD pair is under modest selling pressure on Friday, moving near the lower end of its daily range around the 1.11 zone.

19:34 EUR/USD seen at 1.15 as US outlook weakens – Rabobank The resilience of the US economy in recent years was interpreted by many investors as a demonstration of US ‘exceptionalism’, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes.

19:00 Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous 0.65% to 0.4% in April Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous 0.65% to 0.4% in April

18:59 EUR/CHF price analysis: Cross struggles amid mixed technical signals The EUR/CHF pair is navigating a cautious tone on Friday, hovering around the 0.94 zone with modest gains.

18:46 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Rejection at resistance risks fresh downside The US Dollar (USD) is trading higher against the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday, as markets continue to digest the ongoing developments in tariff negotiations, interest rate expectations, and broader risk sentiment.

17:00 United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index came in at 46.5, below expectations (48) in May United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index came in at 46.5, below expectations (48) in May

17:00 United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations climbed from previous 6.5% to 7.3% in May United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations climbed from previous 6.5% to 7.3% in May

17:00 United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation climbed from previous 4.4% to 4.6% in May United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation climbed from previous 4.4% to 4.6% in May

17:00 United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 50.8 below forecasts (53.4) in May United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 50.8 below forecasts (53.4) in May

16:39 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Finds temporary support near 145.00 The USD/JPY pair recoups some of its initial losses and rebounds to near 145.50 during North American trading hours on Friday, while it is still 0.1% down.

16:31 Russia Foreign Trade rose from previous $10.5B to $11.756B in March Russia Foreign Trade rose from previous $10.5B to $11.756B in March

15:42 Mexican Peso trims some of Banxico-related losses following interest-rate cut The Mexican peso (MXN) is consolidating against the US dollar (USD) on Friday after recovering some of the ground lost on Thursday after the Banco de Mexico (Banxico) decided to cut interest rates, as expected.

15:30 United States Import Price Index (YoY) down to 0.1% in April from previous 0.9% United States Import Price Index (YoY) down to 0.1% in April from previous 0.9%

15:30 United States Import Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.1%, above expectations (-0.4%) in April United States Import Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.1%, above expectations (-0.4%) in April

15:30 United States Export Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 2.4% to 2% in April United States Export Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 2.4% to 2% in April

15:30 Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities came in at $-4.23B below forecasts ($5.2B) in March Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities came in at $-4.23B below forecasts ($5.2B) in March

15:30 Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities down to $15.63B in March from previous $27.15B Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities down to $15.63B in March from previous $27.15B

15:30 United States Building Permits Change dipped from previous 1.6% to -4.7% in April United States Building Permits Change dipped from previous 1.6% to -4.7% in April

15:30 United States Building Permits (MoM) registered at 1.412M, below expectations (1.45M) in April United States Building Permits (MoM) registered at 1.412M, below expectations (1.45M) in April

15:30 United States Housing Starts (MoM) came in at 1.361M, below expectations (1.37M) in April United States Housing Starts (MoM) came in at 1.361M, below expectations (1.37M) in April

15:30 United States Housing Starts Change rose from previous -11.4% to 1.6% in April United States Housing Starts Change rose from previous -11.4% to 1.6% in April

15:30 United States Export Price Index (MoM) above expectations (-0.5%) in April: Actual (0.1%) United States Export Price Index (MoM) above expectations (-0.5%) in April: Actual (0.1%)

15:21 USD/CAD extends consolidation ahead of US Consumer Sentiment data USD/CAD is trading flat around 1.3960 at the time of writing on Friday, showing little to no directional bias as the pair remains confined within a narrow weekly range.

14:47 EUR stuck around 1.12 with risk in Fed pricing – Scotiabank EUR/USD is extending its recent, quiet consolidation around 1.12 and trading with modest support into Friday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:46 CAD consolidating within a right range and finding support from spreads – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is entering Friday’s NA session flat vs. the USD as it consolidates around the midpoint of this week’s range, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:45 US Dollar looks set for steady weekly close ahead of Consumer Sentiment data The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is on the back foot on Friday at around 100.62.

14:43 First new market forecasts for Platinum and Palladium – Commerzbank A market-leading refiner of Platinum group metals headquartered in London yesterday published its new forecasts for the supply and demand of Platinum group metals, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

14:30 India FX Reserves, USD climbed from previous $686.06B to $690.62B in May 5 India FX Reserves, USD climbed from previous $686.06B to $690.62B in May 5

14:30 India Bank Loan Growth down to 9.9% in April 28 from previous 10.3% India Bank Loan Growth down to 9.9% in April 28 from previous 10.3%

14:00 Gold on the rollercoaster – Commerzbank "The price of Gold went on a bit of a rollercoaster ride on Thursday, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

13:49 OPEC still sees undersupplied Oil market – Commerzbank OPEC has also confirmed its forecasts for Oil demand, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

13:35 Gold falls as trade tensions ease and Fed outlook shifts – Commerzbank The price of Gold has come under considerable pressure in recent days, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

13:31 UK: EU trade deal remains the biggest prize – Standard Chartered The UK government is aiming to build on recent momentum after trade deals with the US and India. The UK-EU summit on 19 May presents an opportunity to start reducing non-tariff barriers.

13:29 Oil gains on trade optimism, then slips on Iran talks – Commerzbank Oil prices rose significantly earlier this week, before falling again recently, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

13:22 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

13:15 JPY: No summer hike – Commerzbank The Japanese economy has not gotten off to a particularly good start this year. According to GDP figures published this morning, economic output declined slightly in the first quarter, falling by 0.2% compared with the previous quarter.

13:06 USD/CNH: 2-way trades likely – OCBC USD/CNY fix continues to come in slightly softer (and below spot) for the whole week, last seen trading at 7.2057 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

13:06 EUR/USD rises as Greenback suffers due to plunging US bond yields EUR/USD ticks up to near 1.1200 during European trading hours on Friday.

13:01 USD/JPY: Short bias on the daily charts – OCBC USD/JPY continued to trade lower amid decline in UST yields. Pair was last at 145.59 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

12:52 DXY: Slight downside risk – OCBC USD turned lower, tracking UST yields lower. DXY was last at 100.75 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

12:39 S.Korea Trade Minister: Possibility that the trade deal might come after 8 July deadline South Korea's Trade Minister Ahn Duk-geun said on Friday that “there is a possibility that the trade deal might come after the 8 July deadline.”

12:34 AUD/USD: Expected to trade between 0.6380 and 0.6445 – UOB Group Downward momentum has not increased further; Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade between 0.6380 and 0.6445 against US Dollar (USD).

12:31 Iran nuclear deal hopes – ING The oil market sold off yesterday following comments from President Trump that the US and Iran were moving closer towards a nuclear deal, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

12:23 GBP/USD: Set to trade in a range of 1.3270/1.3345 – UOB Group Pound Sterling (GBP) could trade in a range of 1.3270/1.3345. In the longer run, GBP is likely to trade in a 1.3140/1.3405 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

12:19 USD: Dovish momentum re-emerging – ING This week’s data flow has been quite dovish for the Federal Reserve. After the soft April CPI, PPI dropped by 0.5% month-on-month, against expectations of a 0.2% rise, with significant upward revisions for March data.

12:16 Gold edges lower amid geopolitical, trade uncertainty Gold (XAU/USD) price edges lower and struggles to hold near the $3,200 level at the time of writing on Friday as multiple questions and concerns arise in markets and amongst traders.

12:01 Italy Trade Balance EU dipped from previous €-0.361B to €-2.453B in March Italy Trade Balance EU dipped from previous €-0.361B to €-2.453B in March

12:01 Italy Global Trade Balance came in at €3.657B, below expectations (€5.2B) in March Italy Global Trade Balance came in at €3.657B, below expectations (€5.2B) in March

12:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. climbed from previous €21B to €27.9B in March Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. climbed from previous €21B to €27.9B in March

12:00 Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. came in at €36.8B, above forecasts (€17.5B) in March Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. came in at €36.8B, above forecasts (€17.5B) in March

11:22 President Trump: US officials will send letters out soon to countries for trade deals Speaking in Abu Dhabi on Friday, US President Donald Trump said that “his official will will send letters out soon to countries for trade deals.”

11:16 Fed’s Bostic sees just one rate cuts this year amid uncertainty Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) President Raphael Bostic said on Friday that he “sees just one rate cuts this year amid uncertainty.”

11:09 Forex Today: Market focus shifts to US consumer sentiment data Here is what you need to know on Friday, May 16:

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (2%) in April: Actual (1.9%) Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (2%) in April: Actual (1.9%)

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.2%) in April Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.2%) in April

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) came in at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in April Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) came in at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in April

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) below expectations (2.1%) in April: Actual (2%) Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) below expectations (2.1%) in April: Actual (2%)

10:48 Pound Sterling advances against US Dollar on soft US PPI, Retail Sales data The Pound Sterling (GBP) rises further to near 1.3330 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s European session, extending Thursday’s upside move.

10:38 WTI falls to near $61.00, weekly gains capped by global oversupply concerns West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price continues its losing streak for the third successive session, trading around 61.10 per barrel during the early European hours on Friday.

09:30 Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY) up to 8.5% in 1Q from previous 2.3% Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY) up to 8.5% in 1Q from previous 2.3%

09:08 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.14 per barrel, down from Thursday’s close at $61.24.

09:03 EUR/GBP rises above 0.8400, recovers ground due to strong Euro performance EUR/GBP is rebounding from recent losses, trading near 0.8420 during Friday’s Asian session.