ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

23:29 Gold price slips below $3,300 amid weak US data, set for over 5% monthly gains
Gold fell some 0.69% during the North American session on Wednesday after hitting a daily high of $3,328. Data from the United States (US) revealed an economic contraction and fueled speculation for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

22:55 AUD/USD gains as market reacts to weak US data, global uncertainty
The AUD/USD pair saw a slight uptick as investors weighed weak United States (US) economic data, including a contraction in Q1 GDP. The market now expects potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, which have pressured the US Dollar (USD).

22:21 Forex Today: The BoJ is widely anticipated to keep rates unchanged
Renewed buying interest prompted the US Dollar to add to Tuesday’s gains, always on the back of alleviating concerns over US-China trade effervescence and investors’ assessment of weaker-than-expected US data releases. Most markets will be closed on May 1 due to the Labour Day holiday.

Renewed buying interest prompted the US Dollar to add to Tuesday’s gains, always on the back of alleviating concerns over US-China trade effervescence and investors’ assessment of weaker-than-expected US data releases. Most markets will be closed on May 1 due to the Labour Day holiday.Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 1: The US Dollar Index (DXY) advanced further and reached two-day highs in the 99.60-99.70 band amid mixed yields and following poor US data releases. The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due, seconded by Challenger Job Cuts, the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, the ISM Manufacturing Index, and Construction Spending.EUR/USD added to the weekly leg lower and retested the ow-1.1300s in response to the Dollar’s firm tone. The final HCOB Manufacturing PMI for both Germany and the euro bloc is next on tap along with the preliminary Inflation Rate and the Unemployment Rate in the euro bloc.GBP/USD dropped to two-day troughs near the 1.3300 neighbourhood along with the widespread pullback in the risk complex on Wednesday. Next on the UK calendar will be Mortgage Approvals, Mortgage Lending, the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and the BoE’s M4 Money Supply and Consumer Credit figures.USD/JPY rose past the 143.00 hurdle and reached two-day highs on the back of further loss of momentum in the Japanese Yen. The BoJ is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged, followed by the final Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI and the Consumer Confidence survey.AUD/USD has embarked on a consolidative range around the 0.6400 zone, always closely following US-China trade developments. Attention is expected to shift to the release of the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Balance of Trade data, Commodity Prices, and Q1 Import and Export Prices.Prices of WTI sold off to the $58.00 region per barrel on the back of prospects of supply boost and despite a larger-than-expected drop in the weekly US inventories, as reported by the EIA.Gold prices retested the $3,270 area once again on Wednesday, adding to the previous day’s pullback following the stronger US Dollar and mitigating trade concerns. Silver prices also traded on the back foot, adding to Tuesday’s drop and hitting multi-day lows near the $32.00 mark per ounce.

21:21 US Dollar Index drifts sideways ahead of key jobs and inflation data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, hovered near 99.30 on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls and inflation data later in the week.

21:06 Dow Jones tanks over 200 points as US economy shrinks, recession fears loom
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plunged more than 200 points or over 0.51% as the economy in the United States (US) contracted for the first time since 2022, fueling fears that the economy could be at risk of a recession under the Trump administration.

20:57 Bank of Canada minutes: Council split over cutting or holding rates due to tariffs risks
The Bank of Canada revealed the minutes of the meeting held on April 16, which showed that the Governing Council was divided over whether to cut rates or keep them unchanged.

20:55 President Trump: Carney will come to the White House
US President Donald Trump said Wednesday that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is seeking to strike a trade deal and is expected to visit the White House within the next week. He also hinted at the possibility of reaching a deal with China eventually.

US President Donald Trump said Wednesday that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is seeking to strike a trade deal and is expected to visit the White House within the next week. He also hinted at the possibility of reaching a deal with China eventually.Key QuotesCarney called me yesterday and said let's make a deal. Congratulated Carney. Carney will come to White House. Not taking credit or discredit for stock market. Stock market is an indicator. At a certain point hope for deal with China. Fairness with China includes IP.

19:45 USD/CHF down as soft US data and China slowdown hit sentiment
The USD/CHF is trading with losses, staying close to its recent lows after a wave of soft US data and deteriorating macro signals from China triggered broad risk-off flows in the market.

The USD/CHF is trading lower, hovering near the week’s lows, as recession fears and weak Chinese PMIs weigh on sentiment.US GDP contracted in Q1, PCE inflation cooled, and traders now question the Fed’s next move amid Trump’s renewed criticism of Powell.Technical indicators remain bearish, with USD/CHF capped by moving average resistance and downside risks toward 0.8120 and 0.8070.The USD/CHF is trading with losses, staying close to its recent lows after a wave of soft US data and deteriorating macro signals from China triggered broad risk-off flows in the market. Sentiment was already fragile heading into Wednesday, and the release of a disappointing US GDP print intensified concerns over the health of the US economy. At the same time, weak Chinese manufacturing and services PMIs revealed the first clear signs of stress from the trade war escalation, increasing fears of global economic deceleration. The US Dollar is broadly under pressure, struggling to gain any momentum despite month-end flows.On the macro front, US GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, a stark reversal from the 2.4% growth seen in Q4 2024 and well below market expectations. The downturn reflected weaker consumer spending, a drop in government expenditure, and a widening trade deficit. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation came in at 2.3% year-on-year, down from February’s 2.5%, in line with consensus but continuing the cooling trend in price pressures. Personal income and spending surprised modestly to the upside, but failed to support the Dollar. President Trump’s renewed attacks on Fed Chair Powell, during a Detroit rally, added fuel to market uncertainty, as the President claimed to “know more about rates than Powell” and pushed for more aggressive easing.Compounding the bearish bias, China’s April manufacturing PMI fell sharply to 49.0, its lowest level since 2023, and the export component dropped to 44.7. Non-manufacturing activity also slowed, with services and construction readings edging closer to stagnation. This confirmed a severe export shock and raised the likelihood of additional stimulus measures from Beijing. Traders reacted swiftly, selling USD across the board while demand for traditional safe havens like the Swiss Franc strengthened. Meanwhile, Chinese gold ETFs saw their largest outflows in 264 sessions, and Copper prices collapsed as CTA-driven liquidations escalated into thin liquidity ahead of holidays in Asia.USD/CHF Technical AnalysisFrom a technical perspective, momentum signals are clearly bearish for the USD/CHF. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 40, confirming weakening upside momentum, while the MACD remains in negative territory, suggesting continued selling pressure. The pair is trading below its 10-day and 20-day EMAs, reinforcing the downside bias. Strong resistance is seen near 0.8280 and 0.8340, while immediate support lies around 0.8120, with a deeper move targeting 0.8070 and potentially 0.8000 in a bearish continuation scenario.Markets now shift focus to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will offer fresh insights into US labor market strength and shape expectations for the Fed’s May 7 policy decision. Until then, sentiment remains fragile and tilted against the US Dollar.Daily Chart

19:05 EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Sterling slips as euro regains traction post-Europe
The EUR/GBP is trading with mild gains on Wednesday, hovering around the mid-0.8500 zone following the European session. The pair rebounded within the day’s range, showing modest upward pressure.

EUR/GBP trades near the mid-0.8500s after gaining ground post-European session. Bullish bias intact despite mixed short-term signals. Key moving averages and longer-term indicators support upside momentum.The EUR/GBP is trading with mild gains on Wednesday, hovering around the mid-0.8500 zone following the European session. The pair rebounded within the day’s range, showing modest upward pressure. Despite a neutral reading from the Relative Strength Index and a bearish signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence, other tools like the Williams Percent Range and longer-term Simple Moving Averages help preserve a bullish tone. Traders are navigating through a mixed set of indicators while the price consolidates near short-term support.EUR/GBP is currently showing a bullish structure overall. The MACD flashes a sell signal, indicating some resistance to immediate upside continuation, while the RSI holds in neutral territory near 50, confirming the indecision. On the other hand, the Williams Percent Range (14) at roughly -92 supports a rebound narrative, suggesting the pair may have entered oversold territory intraday. The Commodity Channel Index also remains in neutral ground, adding to the mixed short-term sentiment.From a moving average perspective, the short-term 30-day exponential and simple moving averages, both below current price action, are signaling bullish momentum. However, the 20-day SMA, positioned just above the pair, acts as dynamic resistance and could cap immediate upside. Notably, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs — both sitting clearly below current levels — strengthen the longer-term bullish case.Support lies at 0.8494, followed by 0.8485 and 0.8482. Resistance levels are seen at 0.8516, 0.8525, and 0.8526.Daily Chart

19:00 Russia Unemployment Rate came in at 2.3%, below expectations (2.4%) in March
Russia Unemployment Rate came in at 2.3%, below expectations (2.4%) in March

18:43 GBP/USD drops as US economy shrinks, inflation holds firm
The Pound Sterling tumbled against the US dollar as the economy in the United States contracted, as revealed by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for Q1 2025. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3331, down 0.51%

18:31 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls remain favored despite intraday setback
After the European session on Wednesday, EUR/USD was seen moving lower toward the 1.1350 area, retreating modestly from earlier highs. Despite this intraday softness, the pair maintains a bullish outlook, largely supported by the positioning of its moving averages.

EUR/USD trades near the 1.1350 zone, dipping slightly during Wednesday’s session after earlier gains.The broader bullish bias remains intact, supported by strong positioning of short- and long-term moving averages.Key support lies at 1.1265 and 1.1212, while resistance levels appear around 1.1354 and 1.1390.After the European session on Wednesday, EUR/USD was seen moving lower toward the 1.1350 area, retreating modestly from earlier highs. Despite this intraday softness, the pair maintains a bullish outlook, largely supported by the positioning of its moving averages. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) provide a more cautious tone, suggesting the current dip may be part of a healthy correction within the broader trend.The 20-day SMA at 1.1265 continues to offer immediate support, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs—both trending higher—reinforce the longer-term bullish case. The 30-day EMA (1.1162) and 30-day SMA (1.1113) also validate the upside structure. However, momentum indicators reflect hesitation: the RSI hovers just below overbought territory, the MACD shows a slight bearish divergence, and both the CCI and Bull Bear Power remain neutral.Support levels to monitor include 1.1265, 1.1258, and 1.1212. On the upside, resistance is capped near 1.1354, with additional hurdles at 1.1377 and 1.1390. As long as EUR/USD holds above its key moving averages, the bullish narrative remains valid despite near-term consolidation.Daily Chart

18:04 Colombia National Jobless Rate declined to 9.6% in March from previous 10.3%
Colombia National Jobless Rate declined to 9.6% in March from previous 10.3%

17:52 Copper vulnerable as China holiday looms and CTA liquidations intensify – TDS
Weak Chinese manufacturing PMIs kicked off the selling activity in Copper, but CTA selling activity into the liquidity vacuum has exacerbated the downside with algos on track to sell more than -7% of their max size, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Weak Chinese manufacturing PMIs kicked off the selling activity in Copper, but CTA selling activity into the liquidity vacuum has exacerbated the downside with algos on track to sell more than -7% of their max size, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Systematic sellers may accelerate Copper declines"Given China has been the most acute source of buying activity lately, the liquidity vacuum resulting from upcoming holidays present a significant risk for prices as CTAs set to liquidate their Copper in most scenarios for prices over the next several sessions." "Prices now need to rally only to avoid subsequent liquidations. Even a flat tape will force CTAs to abandon their remaining longs, which given the liquidity vacuum, can result in notable downside in prices. Further, a big downtape could lead to large-scale short acquisitions that could total a behemoth -45% of CTAs' max size in this scenario."

17:50 Chinese Gold ETF outflows signal holiday-liquidity risks, not trend shift – TDS
Chinese Gold ETFs recorded their largest outflows in 264 trading sessions, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Chinese Gold ETFs recorded their largest outflows in 264 trading sessions, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Macro catalysts could reignite Gold rally despite pause "These outflows were (1) not particularly large, at -80koz and (2) likely related to profit taking ahead of the holidays, but highlight vulnerabilities associated with China's holiday-induced liquidity vacuum. Unfortunately for the bears, these vulnerabilities cannot be exploited without Western speculators outright shorting Gold. Western traders have no scope to sell." "Macro funds remain largely net flat into a recessionary/stagflationary narrative. CTAs won't sell in any scenario for prices. Gold may well be overbought, but it's under-owned." "The buying impulse that drove the melt-up may now have subsided, but several catalysts on the horizon could reignite it. Look for signs of Asian currency depreciation, or rising recession/stagflation odds to push on the gas pedal."

17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change below forecasts (-0.6M) in April 25: Actual (-2.696M)
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change below forecasts (-0.6M) in April 25: Actual (-2.696M)

17:03 Breaking: US core PCE inflation softens to 2.6% in March as expected
Inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, edged lower to 2.3% on a yearly basis in March from 2.5% in February, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Wednesday. This reading came in above the market expectation of 2.2%

Inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, edged lower to 2.3% on a yearly basis in March from 2.5% in February, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Wednesday. This reading came in above the market expectation of 2.2%The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.6% in the same period, down from the 3% increase reported in February and in line with analysts' estimates. The core PCE Price Index was unchanged on a monthly basis.Developing story, please refresh the page for updates.

17:03 USD/CAD remains unchanged above 1.3800 after US/Canada GDP data
The USD/CAD pair has not moved much and stays around 1.3830 during the North American trading session on Wednesday after the release of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data of both the United States (US) and Canada.

17:00 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.1%) in March: Actual (0%)
United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.1%) in March: Actual (0%)

17:00 United States Personal Income (MoM) above forecasts (0.4%) in March: Actual (0.5%)
United States Personal Income (MoM) above forecasts (0.4%) in March: Actual (0.5%)

17:00 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0%) in March
United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0%) in March

17:00 United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) rose from previous -3.6% to -0.6% in March
United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) rose from previous -3.6% to -0.6% in March

17:00 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.6%) in March
United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.6%) in March

17:00 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2.2%) in March: Actual (2.3%)
United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2.2%) in March: Actual (2.3%)

17:00 United States Personal Spending registered at 0.7% above expectations (0.6%) in March
United States Personal Spending registered at 0.7% above expectations (0.6%) in March

17:00 United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) above expectations (-0.3%) in March: Actual (6.1%)
United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) above expectations (-0.3%) in March: Actual (6.1%)

16:53 China April PMIs show trade war hit – ABN AMRO
China’s April manufacturing PMIs clearly hit by US-China trade war. Official non-manufacturing PMI and composite PMI also came down. Concrete signs of export shock make stepping up of support likely.

China’s April manufacturing PMIs clearly hit by US-China trade war. Official non-manufacturing PMI and composite PMI also came down. Concrete signs of export shock make stepping up of support likely. Beijing still plays ‘hard to get’ versus US in terms of potential trade talks, ABN AMRO's economist Arjen van Dijkhuizen notes. April manufacturing PMIs clearly hit by trade war"This morning, China’s April PMIs were the first monthly macro data to show a clear hit from the escalation of the US-China trade war in the course of this month. On the manufacturing side, the official PMI published by NBS came down more than expected, falling back into contraction territory. This index dropped by 1.5 points to a two-year low of 49.0 (March: 50.5, consensus: 49.7). While the weakening was broad-based, particularly striking – and symbolic for the impact of the trade war – was the sharp decline of the export component, which fell by more than four points to a post-pandemic low of 44.7." "Meanwhile, the official non-manufacturing PMI – covering services and construction sectors – also came down, but relatively modest, to a level of 50.4 (March: 50.8, consensus: 50.6). The services sub-index slipped back to 50.1 (March: 50.3), while the construction sub-index fell more sharply, to a three-month low of 51.9 (March: 53.4). The official composite PMI (a weighted average of the output components for manufacturing and non-manufacturing) fell to a three-month low of 50.2 (March: 51.4), remaining just above the neutral mark. Caixin’s services and composite PMIs for April will be published on the 6th of May.""All in all, the drop in China’s April PMIs are clear signs of the export shock related to the escalated trade war, although we still expect exemptions, trade circumvention/diversification and the further stepping up of monetary and fiscal support to cushion the blow to some extent. All of this is also in line with our recent downgrade of China’s growth forecasts, to 4.1% (from 4.3%) for 2025 and 3.9% (from 4.2%) to 2026. We also note that the US is still trying to get China to the negotiation table, adding that China should take the initiative, but China is still playing ‘hard to get’ right now for several reasons."

16:45 United States Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index below forecasts (45.5) in April: Actual (44.6)
United States Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index below forecasts (45.5) in April: Actual (44.6)

15:31 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) rose from previous 2.6% to 3.5% in 1Q
United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) rose from previous 2.6% to 3.5% in 1Q

15:31 United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index climbed from previous 2.3% to 3.7% in 1Q
United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index climbed from previous 2.3% to 3.7% in 1Q

15:30 United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized below forecasts (0.4%) in 1Q: Actual (-0.3%)
United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized below forecasts (0.4%) in 1Q: Actual (-0.3%)

15:30 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) up to 3.6% in 1Q from previous 2.4%
United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) up to 3.6% in 1Q from previous 2.4%

15:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) below forecasts (0%) in February: Actual (-0.2%)
Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) below forecasts (0%) in February: Actual (-0.2%)

15:30 United States Employment Cost Index meets expectations (0.9%) in 1Q
United States Employment Cost Index meets expectations (0.9%) in 1Q

15:21 US ADP private sector employment rises 62,000 in April vs. 108,000 expected
Private sector employment in the US rose 62,000 in April and annual paw was up 4.5% year-over-year, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday.

15:15 United States ADP Employment Change below forecasts (108K) in April: Actual (62K)
United States ADP Employment Change below forecasts (108K) in April: Actual (62K)

15:03 Germany annual CPI inflation declines to 2.1% in April
Inflation in Germany, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), edged lower to 2.1% on a yearly basis in April from 2.2% in March, Destatis' flash estimate showed on Wednesday.

15:01 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) up to 0.6% in 1Q from previous 0.5%
Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) up to 0.6% in 1Q from previous 0.5%

15:01 Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.1% (April) vs previous 2.2%
Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.1% (April) vs previous 2.2%

15:00 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) increased to 0.2% in 1Q from previous -0.6%
Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) increased to 0.2% in 1Q from previous -0.6%

15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above forecasts (0.3%) in April
Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above forecasts (0.3%) in April

15:00 South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) increased to 24.77B in March from previous 20.9B
South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) increased to 24.77B in March from previous 20.9B

15:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at 0.5%, above expectations (0.4%) in April
Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at 0.5%, above expectations (0.4%) in April

15:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) above forecasts (2.1%) in April: Actual (2.2%)
Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) above forecasts (2.1%) in April: Actual (2.2%)

14:57 JPY is underperforming on data disappointment – Scotiabank
Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, down 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming all the G10 currencies on the back of weaker than expected industrial production and retail sales data, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, down 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming all the G10 currencies on the back of weaker than expected industrial production and retail sales data, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. JPY is underperforming ahead of BoJ tonight"Both contracted in March, and to a much greater extent than expected. The data are unlikely to impact the BoJ policy decision, given that market participants are widely expecting a hold at 0.50%." "The BoJ’s release of fresh forecasts will be important, given that it will be one of the first major central banks to provide a reassessment of its forecast in the aftermath of the US tariff announcement. Japan/ US trade talks are resuming Wednesday and set to continue through the end of the week, representing the second round of talks since negotiations began."

14:55 GBP soft in quiet trade, consolidating recent rally – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most G10 currencies in quiet, mixed trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most G10 currencies in quiet, mixed trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. RSI remains firmly in bullish territory above 60"The softness follows Tuesday’s pullback from this week’s fresh multi-year high and is likely just a reprieve as markets await fresh catalysts. Domestic releases have been limited and the data calendar remains empty ahead of next week’s BoE policy decision and the widely expected 25bpt cut.""We remain bullish above 1.3300 and note that the RSI remains firmly in bullish territory above 60. The multi-month bull channel also remains intact absent a break of its lower bound just below 1.2900."

14:51 India M3 Money Supply climbed from previous 9.5% to 9.6% in April 14
India M3 Money Supply climbed from previous 9.5% to 9.6% in April 14

14:50 CAD holds trading range – Scotiabank
April has been good for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) (it’s strongest month against the US Dollar (USD) since 2019) but spot continues to range trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

April has been good for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) (it’s strongest month against the US Dollar (USD) since 2019) but spot continues to range trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. FV estimate slips under 1.38"The election has been inconsequential for the CAD so far but now the hard work for the Carney government has started. There may be no rush to engage with the US on trade; developing US economic headwinds from President Trump’s tariff policies suggest that patience may be the best strategy for now. Factors driving the exchange rate continue to edge in the CAD’s favour." "Our fair value estimate for spot has nudged under 1.38 this week for the first time since last October and sits at 1.3789 today. The generally soft USD and calmer US asset markets are factors but lower US yields and narrower US/Canada spreads since early March are a boost for the CAD. Canada repots February industry-level GDP. Growth is expected to be flat in the month, reflecting tariff uncertainty, and slower at 1.7% for the year." "Spot’s consolidation is extending on the short-term charts. Congestion between 1.3575/1.3775 continues to offer some support to the USD but the broader USD downtrend remains intact and bearish trend momentum will curb USD rebounds in the near-term. Intraday resistance is 1.3880, with strong resistance likely nearer 1.40. Support is 1.3775/80 and (key) 1.3745."

14:48 USD consolidates ahead of GDP – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) continues to consolidate and is trading mixed versus its major currency peers on the session.

The US Dollar (USD) continues to consolidate and is trading mixed versus its major currency peers on the session. It’s been a rough month for the USD – its worst monthly performance since 2022, according to Bloomberg – and sentiment remains fragile, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD trades mixed versus majors into month-end"The USD has not benefited in an obvious way from anticipated month-end flows which may be another sign of trouble if that absence of demand reflects foreign investors choosing not to adjust hedges after the past month’s swings in US asset markets where US fixed income especially has underperformed. There may be more trouble ahead for the USD in the form of this morning’s US data reports. US Q1 GDP is expected to be soft— how soft is the question. Fed regional GDP tracking measures probably overstate the weakness and strength in the economy, reflected in a consensus estimate of -0.2% growth that sits between the weak Atlanta Fed Nowcast (-2.7%) and the relatively firm NY Fed’s tracking (+2.6%)." "The sharp widening in the US trade deficit in Q1, as importers front-ran tariffs, may have subtracted significantly from US growth. Some of the widening in the trade account reflected metals imports (gold) ahead of tariffs, which should not impact GDP. But even excluding gold shipments, growth may still not be much better than flat. A weak Q1 and ongoing tariff uncertainty which suggests more headwinds for the economy in Q2 may be hard for markets to digest. Core PCE data is expected to be better behaved in March (+0.1%) but broader trends remain sticky and stalled growth plus still sticky core PCE Y/Y will compound concerns for investors mulling US stagflation risks. Note ADP data are out at 8.15ET." "The DXY is tracking a little higher on the session but the index remains below important resistance at 99.85. A move above will relieve pressure on the USD broadly in the short run and perhaps allow for a push to 102. The underlying trend remains weak, however, which rather favours a downside resolution to the current range. Look for the DXY to trend a little softer again below support at 98.90."

14:45 EUR marginally weaker – Scotiabank
GDP surprises to upside and German state-level CPI data are strong

Euro (EUR) is down a marginal 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD), trading quietly and consolidating within a narrow band at the lower end of its three-week range, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. GDP surprises to upside and German state-level CPI data are strong"The euro area’s advance Q1 GDP release was marginally better than expected on both a q/q and y/y basis (0.4% vs. 0.2%, and 1.2% vs. 1.1% respectively). The data don’t appear to have had any material on ECB rate expectations with markets still pricing in one full 25bpt cut at the June meeting.""The latest period of consolidation has not yet violated the bullish trend, as this would require a break below the mid-1.12s. The softening RSI is worrisome however, and hints at waning momentum. Near-term support is expected around 1.1300 and near-term resistance is expected above 1.1500."

14:13 US Dollar edges higher ahead of top-tier PCE and GDP data releases
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, edges slightly higher and trades at 99.40 at the time of writing on Wednesday.

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications rose from previous -12.7% to -4.2% in April 25
United States MBA Mortgage Applications rose from previous -12.7% to -4.2% in April 25

13:56 AUD/USD consolidates around 0.6400 as investors await key US data
The AUD/USD pair trades slightly higher near 0.6400 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The Aussie pair ticks higher as the US Dollar (USD) gains ahead of a string of United States (US) economic data, notably Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), releasing in the North American session.

13:22 CNY: Some early soft spots – Commerzbank
The official purchasing managers' indices for the Chinese economy were published this morning, revealing the first signs of the impact of the prohibitive US tariffs. The PMI for the manufacturing sector fell by 1.5 points to 49.0, its lowest level since late 2023.

The official purchasing managers' indices for the Chinese economy were published this morning, revealing the first signs of the impact of the prohibitive US tariffs. The PMI for the manufacturing sector fell by 1.5 points to 49.0, its lowest level since late 2023. While the PMI for the services and construction sectors remained above the expansion threshold at 50.4, it also declined by 0.4 points, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. CNY to weaken in the coming months"However, some of the details were more striking than the headline figures. For instance, export orders in the manufacturing sector dropped by 4.3 points to 44.7 — the lowest level since the end of the 2022 lockdowns. Consequently, new orders fell below 50 overall, which does not bode well for the coming months. Additionally, the sub-indices for price developments in the manufacturing sector fell by around 3 points each in April, indicating a significant decline in producer prices. ""The PPI, which has been in negative territory since October 2022 and was most recently at -2.5% YoY, is therefore likely to further decline into negative territory. In the construction sector, both sub-indices for new orders and employment fell significantly, with the latter reaching 37.8 — its lowest level apart from the initial corona shock in January 2020. These figures suggest that the real estate market crisis is far from over and will continue to impact the economy, alongside additional risks in foreign trade.""The employment components in the manufacturing and services sectors remained virtually unchanged. This suggests that the domestic economy may be able to withstand the external shock at least to some extent. Overall, the PMIs point to a weaker economy and continued very low inflation. This would normally give the central bank room to further loosen monetary policy. Despite the CNY's slight strengthening in recent days, I therefore continue to expect it to weaken in the coming months."

13:15 EUR/GBP holds near 0.85 as UK outlook softens – Danske Bank
EUR/GBP remained close to the 0.85 mark during yesterday's session, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

EUR/GBP remained close to the 0.85 mark during yesterday's session, Danske Bank's FX analysts report. Muted UK growth and inflation risks weigh on BoE"Price action continues to be dominated by risk appetite as domestic data releases are scarce the coming week ahead. While retail sales continue to surprise to the topside the past months, PMI data hints at more tentative signs of a more stagflationary environment in the UK." "Service sector slipped back into the contractionary territory while activity in the manufacturing sector remains muted. Price pressures increased in both input and output priced. The more muted growth outlook and higher price components spells trouble for the BoE." "There seems to be a dovish tone within the MPC, which we expect repeated at the meeting next week. We forecast EUR/GBP towards 0.88 on a 12 month horizon."

13:12 BoJ is going to sit this one out – Commerzbank
While we enjoy the bank holiday tomorrow morning, the Bank of Japan will be holding its May monetary policy meeting. Having raised its key interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5% in January, the Bank of Japan then decided to pause in March.

While we enjoy the bank holiday tomorrow morning, the Bank of Japan will be holding its May monetary policy meeting. Having raised its key interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5% in January, the Bank of Japan then decided to pause in March. I expect it to leave the key interest rate unchanged tomorrow, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. BoJ seen holding rates amid tariff uncertainty"Although the Bank of Japan has repeatedly stated in recent weeks that it intends to raise interest rates further if the economy develops as expected, this expectation has been called into question since at least 'Liberation Day' in the US four weeks ago. It will therefore be interesting to see how the Bank of Japan assesses the tariff developments and their potential impact on international trade and the Japanese economy.""It is quite possible that the Bank of Japan will consider various scenarios in its outlook tomorrow, as the Bank of Canada recently did. After all, it is still unclear exactly how high the US tariff rate on Japanese imports will be once the 90-day grace period expires in 60 days' time. The same applies to the tariff rates for other Asian economies. In short, there is simply too much uncertainty at the moment to raise interest rates again tomorrow." "Especially since there is no reason to rush. Inflation has risen slightly again recently. However, looking at wages and service inflation, there is still no evidence of a structural inflation problem. The market agrees, currently pricing in only a very low probability of a key interest rate hike. Therefore, USD/JPY is likely to continue being driven more strongly by the US dollar. I therefore expect the USD/JPY exchange rate to rise again in the coming weeks, as the USD recovers slightly and the JPY weakens."

13:11 EUR/USD slips as Eurozone major economies report soft inflation data
EUR/USD drops to near 1.1370 during European trading hours on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD falls to near 1.1370 as major nations in the Eurozone have indicated that price pressures grew moderately.The pair falls even as the Eurozone economy rose at a higher-than-expected pace of 0.4% in the first quarter of the year.Investors await US Q1 GDP, PCE inflation for March, and ADP Employment Change data for April.EUR/USD drops to near 1.1370 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The major currency pair is slightly down as the Euro (EUR) trades cautiously amid a slowdown in the preliminary April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from six German states and in France, as well as stable inflation in Italy and Spain. Year-on-year inflation data of four German states came in lower than the previous readings, while two states have shown faster price growth. The data suggests that inflation for the whole of Germany, to be published at 12:00 GMT, could also fall. In the same period, France CPI (EU Norm) rose by 0.8%, faster than estimates of 0.7% but lower than the 0.9% growth seen in March. In Italy, inflation remained at 2.1%, while data released Tuesday showed that price growth in Spain was also stable.Overall, the inflation data from the largest nations of the Eurozone indicate that price pressures have grown moderately. Such a scenario is unfavorable for the Euro as soft inflation data supports market expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) could continue to cut interest rates. Traders have almost priced in a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate reduction by the ECB in the June policy meeting. A slew of ECB officials have projected more slowdown in inflation and economic growth in the face of tariffs imposed by the United States (US) on its trading partners. On Tuesday, ECB executive board member Piero Cipollone warned that lower economic and inflation growth due to the US-led global trade war could have an "unambiguously recessionary effect" on the countries involved, Reuters reported. Cipollone anticipated that the recent increase in trade policy uncertainty could reduce “euro area business investment by 1.1% in the first year and real GDP growth by around 0.2 percentage points in 2025-26".Data released on early Wednesday showed that for now, the Eurozone economy is broadly holding up. The preliminary Eurozone Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in better-than-expected on both a quarterly and annual basis. Eurostat reported that the economy grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, higher than what economists had expected and than the previous reading of 0.2%.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD drops as US Dollar gains ahead of key US dataEUR/USD ticks lower as the US Dollar (USD) edges up during European trading hours. The US Dollar gains slightly ahead of a slew of United States (US) economic data, which will be published in the North American session. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks up to near 99.35.Investors will pay close attention to the Q1 GDP, ADP Employment Change for April, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for March, which will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.The US economy is expected to have expanded at a moderate pace of 0.4% on an annualized basis, substantially slower than the 2.4% growth seen in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the private sector employment and the inflation data are expected to show that labor market conditions and price pressures are cooling down.However, the overall outlook of the US Dollar remains grim amid uncertainty over trade relations between the US and China. Market participants have become increasingly confident that the tariff war between the world’s two largest powerhouses will not resolve in the near term, as comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have indicated that he wants Beijing to be the one to initiate rolling back additional import duties imposed on Washington. China raised levies on the US by 125% in retaliation for the 145% tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.On Monday, Scott Bessent said in an interview with CNBC: “I believe that it’s up to China to de-escalate, because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, and so these 120%, 145% tariffs are unsustainable.”Meanwhile, China has listed a number of imports from the US that will be exempted from tariffs, Reuters reported. Investors should not take this move by China as an attempt to de-escalate the trade war, assuming that these products are ones whose substitutes are not currently available in their domestic facilities due to technological or resource limitations.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD falls to near 1.1370EUR/USD falls below 1.1400 in Wednesday’s European session. The outlook of the major currency pair remains bullish as the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is sloping higher around 1.0890.The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs to near overbought levels above 70.00 in the weekly chart, which indicates a strong bullish momentum, but chances of some correction cannot be ruled out.Looking up, the psychological level of 1.1500 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the July 2023 high of 1.1276 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

13:02 Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) fell from previous 0.7% to -0.9% in March
Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) fell from previous 0.7% to -0.9% in March

13:01 Italy Producer Price Index (MoM) declined to -2.4% in March from previous 0.7%
Italy Producer Price Index (MoM) declined to -2.4% in March from previous 0.7%

13:01 Italy Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 6.2% to 3.9% in March
Italy Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 6.2% to 3.9% in March

13:00 Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) declined to -1.3% in March from previous 1.8%
Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) declined to -1.3% in March from previous 1.8%

13:00 USD holds ground despite weaker JOLTS data – Danske Bank
In an otherwise relatively quiet week, the USD found some support from the continued positive risk environment, bolstered by de-escalating tariff headlines - even as JOLTS job openings saw a larger-than-expected decline in March (ahead of Liberation Day), Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

In an otherwise relatively quiet week, the USD found some support from the continued positive risk environment, bolstered by de-escalating tariff headlines - even as JOLTS job openings saw a larger-than-expected decline in March (ahead of Liberation Day), Danske Bank's FX analysts report. Tariff relief lifts risk sentiment, weighs on havens"The greenback continues to move in tandem with US Treasuries and equities, while diverging from traditional safe havens such as the CHF, JPY, and gold, all of which declined yesterday." "In addition to regional CPI prints from Germany and France - which could draw interest following Spain's higher-than-expected print yesterday - today's main focus for EUR/USD will likely be the preliminary Q1 US GDP release." "We forecast a -0.1% q/q AR contraction, primarily driven by front-loaded imports ahead of anticipated tariff measures. While the print is backward-looking, it may still catch the market's attention amid economic policy uncertainty."

12:52 US: The tariff house of cards is collapsing – Commerzbank
To the impartial observer, it should be quite obvious that the US government's trade policy strategy is currently failing spectacularly. Chinese President Xi Jingping is refusing to call to make a 'deal'.

To the impartial observer, it should be quite obvious that the US government's trade policy strategy is currently failing spectacularly. Chinese President Xi Jingping is refusing to call to make a 'deal'. The car tariffs, which were supposed to help the US auto industry regain its former glory, have to be withdrawn. The tariffs on USMCA imports have also come to nothing. In short, the entire house of cards of justifications for tariffs, based on the mistaken belief that the US could extract economic, political, and/or military concessions from the rest of the world in exchange for access to the US market, is collapsing on the US president and his MAGAists, Commerzbank's FX analyst Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. MALA plan risks undermining Treasuries' safe haven status"In a free market trade only happens when both sides benefit. Abolishing it also hurts the US economy: they deny others access to their market and deny themselves access to foreign products. This should also put an end to Stephen Miran's idea of a 'Mar-a-Lago accord' (MALA). On the one hand, there was the idea of committing the rest of the world to coordinated USD weakening. MALA in the narrower sense, so to speak. And then there was the idea of forcing foreign central banks to convert their reserves into interest-free or low-interest perpetual bonds. Economically, this would be equivalent to the US Treasury waiving all or part of its liabilities to foreign central banks.""I don't even want to imagine what would happen if the US were to force a large group of creditors to restructure. The safe haven status of T-notes would be gone. Forever and ever. The problem with this is that only its safe haven status allows the US Treasury to pursue its expansionary fiscal policy. Anyone who grants credit to a normal debtor only does so if they expect to get the capital they have lent back. For the US Treasury's creditors, this would mean that they would have to trust that they would be paid from future primary budget surpluses. The problem with this is that such surpluses are hardly to be expected: the US Treasury's primary budget has been in deficit for over 20 years." "If the US president were to destroy this characteristic of T-notes, the US Treasury would have to present a convincing plan for a permanently restrictive fiscal policy. If it cannot do so for political or economic reasons, the US faces a 'Liz Truss moment': exponentially rising yields. In my opinion, forced restructuring would undoubtedly destroy the 'safe haven' characteristic of T-Notes. Then this policy would also fail – as the tariff policy is currently failing. Only then would the crash be louder and the collateral damage greater – including in terms of USD weakness."

12:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:25 Gold extends consolidation ahead of key US data releases
Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to trade in a narrow range around $3,300 on Wednesday as traders await key US economic data, which could become the catalyst for an imminent breakout. Bullion is facing a second day of some profit taking after United States (US) President Donald Trump signed an execut

12:15 ICSG expects Copper surplus to persist – ING
In its latest forecasts, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) expects the global Copper market to see a supply surplus of 289kt in 2025, largely on higher mine supply and rising smelting capacity, compared to the 194kt of surplus projected earlier and 138kt of surplus seen last year.

In its latest forecasts, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) expects the global Copper market to see a supply surplus of 289kt in 2025, largely on higher mine supply and rising smelting capacity, compared to the 194kt of surplus projected earlier and 138kt of surplus seen last year. However, the surplus is expected to ease slightly to 209kt in 2026 amid a continued demand recovery, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.China's demand surges as US tariffs redirect Copper flows"On the supply side, global mine production is expected to grow by 2.3% year-on-year this year and by a further 2.5% YoY in 2026 following the additions from new mines. Global refined output is projected to increase by 2.9% YoY this year and 1.5% in 2026, primarily due to the continued expansion of Chinese capacity and the start-up of new capacity in other countries, most notably Indonesia, India and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Total apparent refined Copper consumption is forecasted to increase by 2.4% YoY in 2025 and would see a further expansion of 1.8% YoY in 2026, with Asian nations driving most of the demand growth.""Recent data from Shanghai Metals Market shows that the Yangshan Copper premium continued to expand and stood at $94/t (the highest level since 18 December 2023) as of 29 April, compared to just $35/t at the end of February. This rise was largely driven by market tightness, supported by strong domestic demand and declining exchange inventories. The threats of recent US Copper tariffs have driven a large flow of Copper into the US. Chinese warehouse inventories fell by 54,858 tonnes for a fifth consecutive week to 116,753 tonnes as of last Friday.""The latest LME COTR report released yesterday shows that speculators decreased their net long position in Copper by 3,529 lots to 64,806 lots for the week ending 25 April, the lowest since the week ending 17 January 2025. Similarly, net bullish bets for aluminium fell by 1,649 lots for an eighth consecutive week to 79,412 lots at the end of last week. This is the lowest net long since 15 September 2023. Meanwhile, money managers increased net bullish bets for zinc by 772 lots after declining for five consecutive weeks to 4,339 lots as of last Friday."

12:11 US Dollar Index advances to near 99.50 as US yields rebound ahead of Core PCE data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, extends its gains for a second consecutive day, trading near 99.40 during Wednesday’s European session.

12:04 Australia: Pencilling in a rate cut by RBA in May – Standard Chartered
Q1 trimmed mean CPI fell into the RBA’s 2-3% target range for the first time since end-2021. The growth/stability trade-off likely favours more RBA cuts amid growth headwinds posed by US tariffs.

Q1 trimmed mean CPI fell into the RBA’s 2-3% target range for the first time since end-2021. The growth/stability trade-off likely favours more RBA cuts amid growth headwinds posed by US tariffs. Markets pencil an additional 25bps cut at the May RBA meeting, having expected a pause previously and lower their terminal rate projection for the RBA to 3.60% by Q3-2025 (3.85% previously), Standard Chartered's economist Nicholas Chia reports. A growth-stability backdrop that favours more cuts"Australia’s Q1 CPI was a mixed bag. Headline inflation rose 2.4% y/y, versus our estimate of a 2.2% increase (Bloomberg: 2.3%). Trimmed mean CPI, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA’s) preferred measure of underlying inflation, grew 2.9% y/y, in line with our forecast (Bloomberg: 2.8%). This is the first time since Q4-2021 that trimmed mean CPI has fallen within the RBA’s 2-3% target (Figure 1). Services inflation also eased (+3.7%) on lower rent and insurance costs, while goods inflation rose (+1.3%) on higher food and electricity prices.""All in, we think the RBA can take comfort from the broad-based easing of price pressures via the trimmed mean measure; it is forecasting terminal trimmed mean CPI of 2.7% from Q2, based on the then-market implied rate path in February. We now pencil an additional 25bps cut in Q2 at the 20 May RBA meeting, having previously expected the RBA to keep rates on pause until Q3.""We therefore lower our terminal RBA policy rate to 3.60% by Q3 (3.85% previously). We do not preclude a cut in Q4, but much hinges on trade talks and whether the US dials back its tariff agenda. We expect the RBA to frame policy accommodation in May as a pre-emptive cut to mitigate the impact of the sharp rise in trade tensions on economic growth. There is one more labour market report due in May as well as the Q1 wage print prior to the May RBA meeting, but we think the bar to deter the central bank from easing is higher now given the considerable headwinds to economic growth."

12:01 Eurozone Preliminary GDP rises 0.4% QoQ in Q1 vs. 0.2% expected
The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.4% in the three months to March of 2025 after growing by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, the preliminary estimate released by Eurostat showed Wednesday.

12:01 USD: The worse the data, the better? – Commerzbank
Yesterday saw the next round of poor sentiment indicators from the US. According to the Conference Board, US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

Yesterday saw the next round of poor sentiment indicators from the US. According to the Conference Board, US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. This is now ‘old news’ for the currency market it seems, with USD exchange rates barely reacting, Commerzbank's FX analyst Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Poor data results can put pressure on the USD"Don't be put off by US President Trump's effusive praise for his tariffs at some rally. He has already shown that he reacts to such pressure — for example with the 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs or the withdrawal of tariffs for various sectors, which was undoubtedly in response to the slump on the stock markets as well as protests from the affected industries. The faster and more severely the US economy threatens to collapse, the more likely it seems to me that Trump will reverse much of his trade policy. If, on the other hand, the US economy shows signs of resilience, he could feel vindicated in his strategy and leave the tariffs at higher levels.""Following Trump's open criticism of the US Federal Reserve, which he believes is not lowering interest rates quickly enough, it is highly likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting in May — not only because of the increased inflation risks, but also to send a signal of independence. In an environment in which economic momentum is threatening to weaken very quickly, this move would appear all the more hawkish and therefore dollar-positive — given that it is not signalling that it could cut interest rates at one of its next meetings.""In view of today's upcoming US data (GDP and ADP employment survey), this means that poor results could put pressure on the dollar in the short term. However, they increase the chance of a de-escalation in the US trade conflict, which could ultimately benefit the US currency."

12:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) above expectations (0.2%) in 1Q: Actual (0.4%)
Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) above expectations (0.2%) in 1Q: Actual (0.4%)

12:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) came in at 1.2%, above forecasts (0.2%) in 1Q
Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) came in at 1.2%, above forecasts (0.2%) in 1Q

12:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in April
Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in April

12:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM): 0.5% (April) vs previous 1.6%
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM): 0.5% (April) vs previous 1.6%

12:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (2%) in April
Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (2%) in April

12:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) below forecasts (2.3%) in April: Actual (2.1%)
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) below forecasts (2.3%) in April: Actual (2.1%)

12:00 Greece Retail Sales (YoY): 4.6% (February) vs 1.9%
Greece Retail Sales (YoY): 4.6% (February) vs 1.9%

12:00 Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM): 9% (March) vs 8.6%
Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM): 9% (March) vs 8.6%

12:00 Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 0.6% to 2.1% in March
Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 0.6% to 2.1% in March

12:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) above forecasts (1%) in 1Q: Actual (1.2%)
Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) above forecasts (1%) in 1Q: Actual (1.2%)

11:59 USD/CAD ticks higher amid bearish Oil prices, remains below mid-1.3800s ahead of US data
The USD/CAD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move through the first half of the European session on Wednesday and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past two weeks.

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Traders seem reluctant and opt to wait for key US macro releases before placing directional bets.The USD/CAD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move through the first half of the European session on Wednesday and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past two weeks. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3835-1.3840 region and seem to draw support from a combination of factors.Crude Oil prices slump to a nearly three-week low amid worries that an all-out trade war could trigger a global recession and dent fuel demand. Moreover, several members of OPEC+ reportedly will suggest an acceleration of output hikes for a second consecutive month in June. This adds to concerns over mounting supply and exerts additional downward pressure on the black liquid, which, in turn, is seen undermining the commodity-linked Loonie. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, the USD uptick lacks any obvious fundamental catalyst and could be attributed to some repositioning trade ahead of the key US macro data, amid the month-end flow. However, the prospects for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), bolstered by Tuesday's disappointing US economic releases, might hold back the USD bulls from placing fresh bets. Moreover, US President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies led to a mass pivot away from US assets recently, which should cap the buck and the USD/CAD pair. The Canadian Dollar (CAD), on the other hand, continues to draw support from the Liberal Party's win Canadian federal election, which strengthens the incumbent Prime Minister Mark Carney’s position in trade negotiations with the US. This further contributes to keeping a lid on any meaningful upside for the USD/CAD pair and warrants caution for bulls. Traders now look forward to key US macro releases – the ADP report on private-sector employment, the Advance Q1 GDP print, and the Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index.Wednesday's economic docket also features the release of the monthly Canadian GDP print, which, along with Oil price dynamics, should influence the CAD and provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair later during the early North American session. Nevertheless, the aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets around the currency pair. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product Annualized The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 30, 2025 12:30 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 0.4% Previous: 2.4% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Why it matters to traders? The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on an annualized basis for each quarter. After publishing the first estimate, the BEA revises the data two more times, with the third release representing the final reading. Usually, the first estimate is the main market mover and a positive surprise is seen as a USD-positive development while a disappointing print is likely to weigh on the greenback. Market participants usually dismiss the second and third releases as they are generally not significant enough to meaningfully alter the growth picture.

11:57 President Xi: China needs to adapt to changing situations
Speaking at a symposium on economic development on Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that “China needs to adapt to changing situations.”

Speaking at a symposium on economic development on Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that “China needs to adapt to changing situations.”Additional commentsUrge measures to stabilize employment, markets and expectations.China to adjust economic plan based on global change.To promote transformation of traditional industries.Should taken into account domestic and external risks, challenges in a holistic manner.Will study and roll out a batch of balanced and accessible policy measures for people's livelihoods.Should aim for breakthroughs in core, cutting-edge technologies.

11:45 High inventory adds pressure on oil – ING
The oil market continued to decline for a third straight session this morning, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

The oil market continued to decline for a third straight session this morning, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Prices are about to witness their record monthly loss"WTI is trading back below $60/bbl while ICE Brent is down about 15% this month, with prices about to witness their record monthly loss. Lingering tariff risks and expectations of OPEC+ loosening output curbs continue to pressure oil prices. Meanwhile, a bearish inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) further weighed on prices.""Numbers overnight from the API show that US crude oil inventories increased by 3.8m barrels over the last week, in contrast to the 0.8m barrel draw the market was expecting. Cushing crude oil stocks increased by 674k barrels. As for refined products, the API estimates that gasoline stocks decreased by 3.1m barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 2.5m barrels.""Despite the recent weakness in the oil market, demand for Middle East crude appears to remain stable, with the market expecting Saudi Arabia to raise the official selling price by around US$0.3/bbl for Asian buyers for June deliveries. Earlier, Saudi Arabia reduced its official selling price for its Arab Light grade into Asia for May loading by US$2.30/bbl – the biggest cut since 2022."

11:43 USD: Equities providing shield against bad data – ING
The US Dollar (USD) continues to be pulled by opposing forces: US President Donald Trump’s scaling back of some protectionism measures versus data evidence of a US slowdown. Ultimately, the tiebreak for FX impact seems to be equities performance.

The US Dollar (USD) continues to be pulled by opposing forces: US President Donald Trump’s scaling back of some protectionism measures versus data evidence of a US slowdown. Ultimately, the tiebreak for FX impact seems to be equities performance. US stocks had a good day yesterday as some tariff exemptions for auto parts outweighed poor data, and the dollar was moderately stronger across the board. We also believe some month-end rebalancing contributed to supporting the dollar, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. USD is set to be neutral on Wednesday"Today, all eyes will be on the US first-quarter GDP print. Economists have revised their forecasts lower following yesterday’s much wider-than-expected goods trade deficit figures for March, and consensus now sits at -0.1% quarter-on-quarter annualised. Our economics team agrees that a negative read is quite likely. Markets will, anyway, look at how much of the slowdown is attributable to rising imports due to pre-tariff hoarding relative to an effective slowdown in consumption.""The other two key releases today are the ADP employment figures for April and March’s core PCE (the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation). The latter is expected to slow down to 0.1% month-on-month, which may lead to some Fed members feeling more comfortable when discussing easing prospects, and can potentially fuel some momentum to fully price in a cut in June (now 17bp factored in).""We have a neutral bias on the dollar today. While the data flow should continue to prove a net-negative, markets are clearly welcoming Trump’s efforts to ease some tariff pain. We still believe that a constant flow of constructive news on trade (especially regarding China) is needed to keep equities and the dollar supported, but for now, it might be enough to let the dollar stabilise into Friday’s payrolls."

11:36 EUR/JPY holds ground near 162.50 following key economic data from Germany
EUR/JPY halts its two-day losing streak, trading around 162.40 during the European session on Wednesday. The currency cross holds ground following the release of key economic data from Germany.

11:07 Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) rose from previous 2.3% to 2.4% in April
Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) rose from previous 2.3% to 2.4% in April

11:06 Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.4% to 0.5% in April
Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.4% to 0.5% in April

11:06 Spain Current Account Balance: €2.31B (February) vs €1.2B
Spain Current Account Balance: €2.31B (February) vs €1.2B

11:04 Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.2% to 0.5% in April
Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.2% to 0.5% in April

11:04 Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) down to 2.2% in April from previous 2.3%
Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) down to 2.2% in April from previous 2.3%

11:03 Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) increased to 2.4% in April from previous 2.2%
Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) increased to 2.4% in April from previous 2.2%

11:03 Germany Saxony CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 2.5% to 2.4% in April
Germany Saxony CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 2.5% to 2.4% in April

11:03 Germany Saxony CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.6% to 0.5% in April
Germany Saxony CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.6% to 0.5% in April

11:02 German Preliminary GDP expands 0.2% QoQ in Q1, as expected
The German economy expanded by 0.2% over the quarter in the first quarter of 2025, following a 0.2% contraction in the final quarter of 2024, according to the preliminary data published by Destatis on Wednesday. Markets expected a 0.2% growth in the reported period.

11:01 Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.4% to 0.5% in April
Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.4% to 0.5% in April

11:01 Italy Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.3%, above expectations (0.2%) in 1Q
Italy Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.3%, above expectations (0.2%) in 1Q

11:01 Italy Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 0.6% (1Q)
Italy Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 0.6% (1Q)

11:01 Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.3% to 0.4% in April
Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.3% to 0.4% in April

11:01 Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 1.9% to 1.8% in April
Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 1.9% to 1.8% in April

11:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) remains unchanged at -0.4% in 1Q
Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) remains unchanged at -0.4% in 1Q

11:00 Germany Hesse CPI (YoY) down to 2.3% in April from previous 2.4%
Germany Hesse CPI (YoY) down to 2.3% in April from previous 2.4%

11:00 Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY) declined to 2.1% in April from previous 2.3%
Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY) declined to 2.1% in April from previous 2.3%

11:00 Germany Bavaria CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0.3% to 0.4% in April
Germany Bavaria CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0.3% to 0.4% in April

11:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.2%) in 1Q
Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.2%) in 1Q

11:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets forecasts (-0.2%) in 1Q
Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets forecasts (-0.2%) in 1Q

11:00 Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations down to -51.6 in April from previous -10.7
Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations down to -51.6 in April from previous -10.7

10:55 Pound Sterling corrects against US Dollar ahead of US GDP, inflation, and employment data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) corrects to near 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session from its fresh three-year high of 1.3445 posted on Tuesday.

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The GBP/USD pair drops slightly as the US Dollar (USD) ticks higher ahead of a string of top-tier key United States (US) economic data, notably the preliminary Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data release in the North American session.The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is expected to report that the economy grew at a slower pace of 0.4% on an annualized basis, much lower than the prior reading of 2.4%. Economists have anticipated a moderate GDP growth on expectations of a slowdown in economic activity in the face of hefty tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump earlier this month. Trump’s sweeping additional tariffs on its trading partners have led to an increase in global economic uncertainty, including in the US. Theoretically, Trump’s protectionist policies should prompt domestic industry to ramp up their production to offset lower imports, but ever-changing headlines from the White House over import duties have forced them to put their expansion plans on hold.Additionally, investors will focus on the Q1 Employment Cost Index, ADP Employment Change data for April, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for March. The Employment Cost Index, which measures change in total employee cost for a company, is expected to have risen steadily by 0.9%. In the US private sector, employers are expected to have hired 108K fresh workers in April, significantly lower than 155K in March.Meanwhile, the core PCE inflation data, which is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, is expected to have grown by 2.6%, slower than the 2.8% increase seen in February. Signs of easing job growth and cooling inflationary pressures would boost market expectations that the Fed could reduce interest rates in the June policy meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 65% chance that the central bank will reduce interest rates in June. For the May policy meeting, traders are almost fully pricing in that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.Fed officials have indicated that interest rates should remain at their current level until they get clarity on how new economic policies by Donald Trump shape the economic outlook. On Tuesday, Trump criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell again for not lowering interest rates, while commemorating his first 100 days in office. Trump didn’t mention Powell explicitly, but his comments and past record with him indicated so.“You’re not supposed to criticize the Fed, you’re supposed to let him do his own thing, but I know much more than he does about interest rates, believe me,” Trump said. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling trades lower against its peersThe Pound Sterling underperforms its peers in European trading hours on Wednesday as traders have become increasingly confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in its monetary policy meeting on May 8. BoE dovish bets have escalated amid fears that the new tariff policy by the US will ease inflationary pressures and weaken United Kingdom (UK) economic growth.BoE policymaker Megan Greene said that the potential trade war would be “net disinflationary” for the UK economy, in a discussion with the Atlantic Council think tank on Friday. Greene warned about shockwaves in the job market in the face of an increase in employers’ contribution to social security schemes to 15% from 13.8%, which has become effective this month.Last week, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stressed the need to consider trade war risk by the central bank. "We do have to take very seriously the risk to growth, Bailey said at the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Spring Meetings in Washington. This week, the UK economic calendar has nothing important to offer. Therefore, external forces would be the key driver of the British currency. The Pound Sterling has remained underpinned against the US Dollar amid elevated uncertainty over the US-China trade war. Washington wants China to initiate trade discussions with them, given its significant reliance on their exports to the US. “I believe that it’s up to China to de-escalate, because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, Bessent said in an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Monday. Meanwhile, Beijing has vowed to fight the tariff war to protect its interests and dignity.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling stays above all key EMAsThe Pound Sterling retraces to near 1.3400 against the US Dollar from the three-year high of 1.3445. However, the overall outlook of the pair remains bullish as all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds after cooling down to 60, currently at around 65, indicating a resurgence in the upside trend.On the upside, the round level of 1.3600 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the April 3 high around 1.3200 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance. indicated

10:55 Germany Unemployment Change below expectations (20K) in March: Actual (4K)
Germany Unemployment Change below expectations (20K) in March: Actual (4K)

10:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. meets expectations (6.3%) in March
Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. meets expectations (6.3%) in March

10:50 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Falls toward 0.5900 support after breaking below nine-day EMA
The NZD/USD pair extends losses for the second successive session, trading around 0.5920 during early European hours on Wednesday.

10:32 Forex Today: Critical growth and inflation data from major economies to ramp up volatility
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 30:

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The European economic calendar will feature first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for Germany and the Eurozone, alongside monthly Unemployment Rate and Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures from Germany. In the second half of the day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish its first estimate of the Q1 GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index numbers for March. The ADP Employment Change data will also be scrutinized by investors. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.14% -0.57% -0.60% -0.28% -0.03% 0.50% -0.52% EUR 0.14% -0.49% -0.47% -0.16% 0.02% 0.63% -0.40% GBP 0.57% 0.49% 0.04% 0.35% 0.49% 1.12% 0.11% JPY 0.60% 0.47% -0.04% 0.35% 0.61% -0.31% 0.40% CAD 0.28% 0.16% -0.35% -0.35% 0.13% 0.78% -0.22% AUD 0.03% -0.02% -0.49% -0.61% -0.13% 0.63% -0.40% NZD -0.50% -0.63% -1.12% 0.31% -0.78% -0.63% -1.01% CHF 0.52% 0.40% -0.11% -0.40% 0.22% 0.40% 1.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). After edging higher during the European trading hours on Tuesday, the US Dollar (USD) Index lost its traction and closed the day with small gains. The data from the US showed that JOLTS Job Openings came in at 7.19 million in March, missing the market expectation of 7.5 million. Early Wednesday, the USD Index fluctuates in a tight channel above 99.00.In the Asian session on Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the CPI inflation held steady at 2.4% on a yearly basis in the first quarter. This reading came in above analysts' estimate of 2.2%. Commenting on inflation data, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that the market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures, adding that he doesn't see anything in these numbers that would substantially alter market expectations. After losing more than 0.7% on Tuesday, AUD/USD holds steady at around 0.6400 in the European morning.EUR/USD failed to build on Monday's gains and closed marginally lower on Tuesday. The pair moves sideways below 1.1400 in the European morning. Earlier in the day, the data from Germany showed that Retail Sales declined by 0.2% on a monthly basis in March.GBP/USD fluctuates in a narrow band at around 1.3400 in the European morning on Wednesday. Following Monday's sharp decline, USD/JPY found its footing and registered small gains on Tuesday. The pair continues to edge higher toward 143.00 to begin the European session. Early Thursday, the Bank of Japan will announce monetary policy decisions.Gold struggles to gather directional momentum and moves up and down in a tight channel above $3,300 early Wednesday. GDP FAQs What is GDP and how is it recorded? A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.

10:30 Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) rose from previous 1.9% to 2% in 1Q
Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) rose from previous 1.9% to 2% in 1Q

10:15 EUR/INR: Indian Rupee cross rates down at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade with a negative bias at the start of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 96.71, with the EUR/INR pair declining from its previous close at 96.95.

10:06 Austria Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.2% (1Q) vs -0.4%
Austria Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.2% (1Q) vs -0.4%

10:01 Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) unchanged at 0% in March
Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) unchanged at 0% in March

10:01 Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) increased to 0.8% in March from previous -0.1%
Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) increased to 0.8% in March from previous -0.1%

10:01 Turkey Trade Balance up to -7.2B in March from previous -7.77B
Turkey Trade Balance up to -7.2B in March from previous -7.77B

09:46 EUR/GBP holds positive ground near 0.8500 as traders await German, Eurozone GDP data
The EUR/GBP cross trades in positive territory near 0.8500 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) remains strong after the German economic data. Traders will shift their attention to the advanced estimate of Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from Germany later on Wednesday.

09:46 France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) registered at 0.6% above expectations (0.3%) in April
France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) registered at 0.6% above expectations (0.3%) in April

09:46 France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) above forecasts (0.7%) in April: Actual (0.8%)
France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) above forecasts (0.7%) in April: Actual (0.8%)

09:45 France Producer Prices (MoM) climbed from previous -0.8% to -0.6% in March
France Producer Prices (MoM) climbed from previous -0.8% to -0.6% in March

09:39 Palladium price: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $938.30 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $939.50.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $938.30 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $939.50.In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $982.80 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, advancing after the XPT/USD pair settled at $982.15 at the previous close.

09:10 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Wednesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $59.37 per barrel, down from Tuesday’s close at $59.91.

09:01 German Retail Sales rise 2.2% YoY in March vs. 4.9% previous
Retail Sales in Germany declined 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in March, following the 0.8% growth reported in February, according to official data released by Destatis on Wednesday.

09:00 Germany Import Price Index (YoY) down to 2.1% in March from previous 3.6%
Germany Import Price Index (YoY) down to 2.1% in March from previous 3.6%

09:00 Germany Retail Sales (YoY) down to 2.2% in March from previous 4.9%
Germany Retail Sales (YoY) down to 2.2% in March from previous 4.9%

09:00 United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) came in at -0.6% below forecasts (-0.1%) in April
United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) came in at -0.6% below forecasts (-0.1%) in April

09:00 United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY): 3.4% (April) vs previous 3.9%
United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY): 3.4% (April) vs previous 3.9%

09:00 South Africa Private Sector Credit: 3.45% (March) vs previous 3.68%
South Africa Private Sector Credit: 3.45% (March) vs previous 3.68%

09:00 Germany Retail Sales (MoM) above forecasts (-0.4%) in March: Actual (-0.2%)
Germany Retail Sales (MoM) above forecasts (-0.4%) in March: Actual (-0.2%)

09:00 Germany Import Price Index (MoM) came in at -1% below forecasts (-0.7%) in March
Germany Import Price Index (MoM) came in at -1% below forecasts (-0.7%) in March

09:00 US GDP set to slow sharply in Q1 as focus turns to impact of Trump trade policies
The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to publish its preliminary estimate of first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Wednesday, with analysts expecting the data to show annualized growth of just 0.4%, a sharp slowdown from the 2.4% pace recorded in the final quarter o

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.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The United States Gross Domestic Product is seen expanding at an annualised rate of 0.4% in Q1.Investors will focus on the potential impact of tariffs on the economy.The US Dollar looks consolidative in the lower end of its yearly range.The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to publish its preliminary estimate of first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Wednesday, with analysts expecting the data to show annualized growth of just 0.4%, a sharp slowdown from the 2.4% pace recorded in the final quarter of 2024.Markets brace for key US growth data amid tariff jitters, inflation concernsMarkets are on edge ahead of Wednesday’s release of the US preliminary GDP figures for the first quarter—widely considered the most market-moving estimate of the three issued each quarter. Beyond headline growth, the report also includes fresh Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge.This quarter’s numbers carry particular weight, as investors look for early signs of the economic fallout from President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs. With both output and domestic prices in focus, the data could offer crucial clues about the broader macroeconomic impact of the administration’s trade policies.The release follows the Fed’s March 18-19 meeting, where policymakers delivered a mixed outlook in their latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), commonly referred to as the “dot plot.” Officials marked down growth expectations for 2025, even as they penciled in slightly stronger PCE inflation. The revisions reflect growing uncertainty within the central bank over the balance of risks to the US economy.Also included in the report is the GDP Price Index – commonly called the GDP deflator – which measures inflation across all domestically produced goods and services, including exports but excluding imports. It’s expected to rise to 3.1% for the first quarter, up from 2.3% in the final months of 2024, offering further insight into how inflation is weighing on real output.Adding to the caution, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model – closely watched for its real-time tracking of economic activity – forecasted a sharp 2.7% contraction in Q1 GDP as of its April 27 update.When will the GDP print be released and how can it affect the US Dollar Index?The US GDP report, due at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday, could prove pivotal for the US Dollar as investors weigh the strength of the economy against persistent inflation pressures and the spectre of tariffs. Alongside the headline growth figure, markets will scrutinize updates to the GDP Price Index and the Q1 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, key data points that could shift expectations for Federal Reserve policy and the Dollar’s direction.A stronger-than-expected GDP print may temporarily ease fears of a stagflationary environment, potentially offering a brief reprieve for the struggling Greenback.However, the broader technical outlook for the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains decisively bearish. The index continues to trade beneath its 200-day and 200-week simple moving averages (SMAs), now positioned at 104.48 and 102.70, respectively.Downside levels remain in focus, with support eyed at 97.92 – the 2025 low marked on April 21 – and 97.68, a key pivot from March 2022. Any upside correction could first target the psychologically significant 100.00 handle, followed by the interim 55-day SMA at 103.64 and the March 26 swing high of 104.68.Momentum indicators underscore the bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has slipped to around 36, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) has climbed above 55, suggesting growing strength behind the recent downward move. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product Annualized The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Mar 27, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Quarterly Actual: 2.4% Consensus: 2.3% Previous: 2.3% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Why it matters to traders? The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on an annualized basis for each quarter. After publishing the first estimate, the BEA revises the data two more times, with the third release representing the final reading. Usually, the first estimate is the main market mover and a positive surprise is seen as a USD-positive development while a disappointing print is likely to weigh on the greenback. Market participants usually dismiss the second and third releases as they are generally not significant enough to meaningfully alter the growth picture.

08:31 EUR/USD flat lines below 1.1400 mark ahead of Eurozone/US macro data
The EUR/USD pair recovers a few pips from the vicinity of the mix-1.1300s, or the Asian session low, though it lacks any follow-through amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1375 area and remain confined in a familiar range held over the past week or so.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD ticks lower on Wednesday amid a modest USD strength, though it lacks follow-through.Bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Fed cap the USD upside and lend support to the pair.Traders now look forward to key Eurozone/US macro releases for some meaningful opportunities.The EUR/USD pair recovers a few pips from the vicinity of the mix-1.1300s, or the Asian session low, though it lacks any follow-through amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1375 area and remain confined in a familiar range held over the past week or so.The USD attracts buyers for the second straight day amid some repositioning trade ahead of this week's key US macro data. The shared currency, on the other hand, is undermined by dovish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB), which turns out to be another factor acting as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. In fact, traders are pricing in a roughly 75% chance of another rate cut by the ECB in June.The bets were reaffirmed by ECB policymaker Olli Rehn's remarks on Monday, saying that the underlying inflationary pressures in the Eurozone are easing and that we should not rule out rate cuts below neutral rate. Moreover, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone said on Tuesday that the trade policy uncertainty could reduce euro area business investment and real GDP growth by around 0.2% in 2025-26. The USD bulls, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets amid worries that Trump's erratic trade policies could trigger a sharp economic slowdown. Adding to this, firming expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon contributes to capping the USD and acts as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair, warranting some caution before positioning for any meaningful intraday decline.Traders now look to the release of the flash German, French, and Italian CPI prints, which, along with the prelim Eurozone GDP report, will influence the shared currency. Meanwhile, the US economic docket features the ADP report on private-sector employment, the Advance Q1 GDP, and the Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. This might drive the USD and provide some impetus to the EUR/USD pair. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Eurostat on a quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the Eurozone during a certain period of time. The GDP and its main aggregates are among the most significant indicators of the state of any economy. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 30, 2025 09:00 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 0.2% Previous: 0.2% Source: Eurostat

08:31 GBP/USD breaks below 1.3400 due to stronger US Dollar, BoE rate cut expectations
GBP/USD extends its decline for a second straight session, hovering near 1.3390 during Wednesday’s Asian trading. The pair is under pressure as the US Dollar strengthens on renewed optimism surrounding US-China trade developments.

08:30 USD/CHF softens to near 0.6400 amid tariff uncertainty
The USD/CHF pair posts modest losses around 0.6410 during the early European session on Wednesday. The uncertainty surrounding trade policy continues to boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc (CHF). The Swiss KOF Leading Indicator for April is due later on Wednesday.

08:13 FX option expiries for Apr 30 NY cut
FX option expiries for Apr 30 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Apr 30 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1150 888m1.1250 1.7b1.1390 1.3b1.1425 686mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 140.50 2.1b142.00 2b145.00 2b146.00 815mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6250 702m0.6500 551mNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.5950 521m

08:01 Japan Leading Economic Index meets expectations (107.9) in February
Japan Leading Economic Index meets expectations (107.9) in February

08:01 Japan Coincident Index increased to 117.3 in February from previous 116.9
Japan Coincident Index increased to 117.3 in February from previous 116.9

08:01 Japan Housing Starts (YoY) came in at 39.1%, above forecasts (1%) in March
Japan Housing Starts (YoY) came in at 39.1%, above forecasts (1%) in March

08:00 Japan Annualized Housing Starts rose from previous 0.805M to 1.08M in March
Japan Annualized Housing Starts rose from previous 0.805M to 1.08M in March

08:00 Japan Construction Orders (YoY) climbed from previous -3.3% to 3.5% in March
Japan Construction Orders (YoY) climbed from previous -3.3% to 3.5% in March

07:36 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 9,043.76 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,079.31 it cost on Tuesday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 105,483.70 per tola from INR 105,899.30 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,043.76 10 Grams 90,436.80 Tola 105,483.70 Troy Ounce 281,289.70 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by a combination of factors; downside potential seems limited President Donald Trump signed an order on Tuesday to ease tariff effects on the auto industry, giving carmakers two years to increase the share of domestic parts in US-assembled vehicles. This adds to the optimism over progress on trade negotiations and signs of the potential de-escalation of US-China trade tensions. The US Dollar attracts some buyers for the second straight day and also acts as a headwind for the Gold price. Investors, however, remain on the edge as Trump's erratic trade policies continue to fuel worries about a sharp economic slowdown. Moreover, bets that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon should cap any meaningful USD upside. Dovish Fed expectations were reaffirmed by the disappointing US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index released on Tuesday. In fact, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that US job openings fell to 7.19 million by the last day of March from 7.480 million in the previous month. Adding to this, the US Consumer Confidence Index slumped to 86.0 in April, or a nearly five-year low. Furthermore, the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index dropped to 133.5 and 54.4, respectively, during the reported month. The data strengthens the case for more aggressive policy easing by the Fed and should support the non-yielding yellow metal. On the geopolitical front, Russia dismissed Ukraine’s proposal to extend Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unilateral three-day ceasefire to 30 days. Moreover, the US threatened to stop its efforts to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine if both parties didn't deliver concrete proposals. This further contributes to limiting the downside for the XAU/USD pair. Traders now look to Wednesday's US economic docket – featuring the ADP report on private-sector employment, the Advance Q1 GDP print, and the Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. This, along with the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday, should provide cues about the Fed's policy outlook and influence the commodity in the near term. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:27 AUD/JPY rises above 91.00 following key economic data from Australia, Japan
AUD/JPY edges higher after registering gains in the previous two sessions, trading around 91.30 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

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The currency cross is supported by a stronger Australian Dollar (AUD), buoyed by inflation data out of Australia and mixed Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from China.Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, up from 0.2% in Q4 2024 and exceeding expectations of a 0.8% rise, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). On an annual basis, CPI climbed 2.4% in Q1, beating the forecast of 2.2%. Monthly CPI held steady at 2.4% in March year-over-year, while the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Trimmed Mean CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year.Despite the stronger inflation print, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that markets still anticipate further interest rate cuts. “The market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures,” he stated, adding that there’s “nothing in these numbers that would substantially alter market expectations.”Meanwhile, in China, the latest data added to concerns over economic momentum. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, falling below the 49.9 consensus and signaling a return to contraction. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also slipped to 50.4 from 50.8, missing the expected 50.7.On Japan’s side, the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to weaken on the back of disappointing economic data. Industrial production in March fell 1.1% month-over-month, reversing a 2.3% gain in February and missing the expected 0.4% decline. It marks the second drop in 2025 amid growing concerns about the impact of potential US tariffs.Retail Sales in Japan rose 3.1% year-over-year in March, below forecasts of a 3.5% increase but still marking the 36th consecutive month of expansion. Although consumption remains supported by rising wages, the slower pace of growth may signal mounting headwinds. Economic Indicator RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a quarterly basis, measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The QoQ reading compares prices in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. The trimmed mean, which is a measure of underlying inflation, is calculated as the weighted average of the central 70% of the quarterly price change distribution of all CPI components in order to smooth the data from the more-volatile components. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Wed Apr 30, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Quarterly Actual: 0.7% Consensus: 0.7% Previous: 0.5% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Why it matters to traders? The quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has a significant impact on the market and the AUD valuation. The gauge is closely watched by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in order to achieve its inflation mandate, which has major monetary policy implications. Rising consumer prices tend to be AUD bullish, as the RBA could hike interest rates to maintain its inflation target. The data is released nearly 25 days after the quarter ends.

07:20 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slides below $33.00; 200-period EMA on H4 holds the key for bulls
Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick and slides back below the $33.00 mark, hitting a fresh daily low in the last hour.

06:57 WTI falls to near $59.50 due to weakening global economic growth, Oil demand
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price continues its decline for a third consecutive session, trading near $59.50 per barrel during Asian hours on Wednesday.

06:54 Gold price slides back closer to $3,300 amid positive risk tone, modest USD uptick
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with a negative bias for the second consecutive day, though it lacks bearish conviction and holds above the $3,300 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday.

06:20 USD/INR strengthens as India and Pakistan tension escalates
The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens on Wednesday, pressured by rising geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. Many tourist sites in Kashmir have been closed since Tuesday, as traders react to unverified reports of military activity.

05:48 USD/CAD holds gains near 1.3850 as trade optimism supports US Dollar
USD/CAD is holding gains for a second consecutive session, trading near 1.3840 during Wednesday’s Asian session. The pair remains supported as the US Dollar (USD) benefits from renewed optimism surrounding US-China trade developments.

05:24 NZD/USD remains confined in a narrow range below mid-0.5900s after Chinese PMIs
The NZD/USD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction during the Asian session on Wednesday and languishes near the lower end of a nearly two-week-old trading range. Spot prices hold steady around the 0.5930 region and move little following the release of Chinese PMIs.

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The NZD/USD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction during the Asian session on Wednesday and languishes near the lower end of a nearly two-week-old trading range. Spot prices hold steady around the 0.5930 region and move little following the release of Chinese PMIs.The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) contracted to 49 in April, compared to 50.5 in the previous month and 49.9 expected. Moreover, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI eased more than expected, to 50.4 in the current month from 50.8 in March. However, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.2 to 50.4 in April, beating the market forecast of 49.9. The data fails to provide any meaningful impetus to antipodean currencies, including the Kiwi, amid mixed signals about US-China trade talks. However, a positive risk tone – bolstered by the potential for a de-escalation of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies and progress on trade negotiations – acts as a tailwind for the perceived riskier New Zealand Dollar (NZD). That said, a modest US Dollar (USD) strength holds back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the NZD/USD pair. Meanwhile, the range-bound price action witnessed over the past two weeks or so warrants some caution before positioning for firm near-term direction ahead of this week's key US macro releases.Wednesday's US economic docket features the ADP report on private-sector employment, the Advance Q1 GDP print, and the Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. The focus will then shift to the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, which may provide insight into the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook. This, in turn, will play a crucial role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the NZD/USD pair. Economic Indicator NBS Manufacturing PMI The NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at manufacturing companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Renminbi (CNY). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for CNY. Read more. Last release: Wed Apr 30, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 49 Consensus: 49.9 Previous: 50.5 Source: China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing Why it matters to traders? The monthly manufacturing PMI is released by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) on the last day of every month. The official PMI is released before the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which makes it even more of a leading indicator, highlighting the health of the manufacturing sector, considered as the backbone of the Chinese economy. The data is of high relevance for the financial markets throughout several asset classes, given China’s influence on the global economy.

05:17 Australian Treasurer Chalmers: Market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Wednesday that “the market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures.”

05:16 Japanese Yen consolidates in narrow range as traders await BoJ policy update
The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Wednesday and oscillates in a narrow trading range against its American counterpart during the Asian session amid mixed cues. US President Donald Trump signed an order to ease the impact of new tariffs on the auto industry.

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Expectations for additional BoJ rate hikes in 2025 support the JPY amid subdued USD price action. The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Wednesday and oscillates in a narrow trading range against its American counterpart during the Asian session amid mixed cues. US President Donald Trump signed an order to ease the impact of new tariffs on the auto industry. Signs of further trade deals remain supportive of a positive risk tone. Apart from this, disappointing domestic data turns out to be key factors capping the safe-haven JPY. Traders, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and opt to wait for the outcome of a crucial two-day Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting starting today. The BoJ will announce its decision on Thursday and is widely expected to hold interest rates steady amid heightening risks to the fragile economy from US tariffs. However, signs of broadening inflation in Japan keep the door open for further BoJ policy normalization, which might continue to act as a tailwind for the JPY. Japanese Yen traders move to the sidelines ahead of the crucial BoJ meeting starting this WednesdayUS President Donald Trump signed an order that will allow US carmakers to reduce the amount they pay in import taxes on foreign parts. Moreover, White House officials said that parts made in Canada and Mexico that follow North American free trade rules would not face tariffs.This comes on top of progress on trade negotiations and hopes for further trade deals, which remains supportive of a positive risk tone. In fact, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that many top US trading partners have made "very good" tariff proposals. Government data released earlier this Wednesday showed that Japan's Industrial Production shrank 1.1% in March, much more than expected. Adding to this, Japan's Retail Sales also fell short of estimates and grew 3.1% YoY in March, acting as a headwind for the Japanese Yen. The Bank of Japan kickstarts its policy meeting today and will announce its decision on Thursday. The central bank is expected to move cautiously and pause further interest rate hikes amid growing concerns that the new US tariffs could sharply slow Japan's economic growth.Expectations beyond the April meeting are divided amid mixed economic signals from Japan. However, persistent inflationary pressures and bumper pay hikes offered by big firms this year give the BoJ headroom to continue tightening its monetary policy this year. In contrast, the disappointing US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index released on Tuesday strengthened the case for the resumption of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle in the coming months.In fact, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that US job openings dropped sharply, to 7.19 million by the last day of March from the 7.480 million (revised from 7.56 million) open positions reported in the previous month. This reading was below expectations of 7.5 million.Adding to this, the US Consumer Confidence Index slumped to 86.0 in April, or a nearly five-year low, amid concerns over the potential economic fallout from Trump's tariffs. Furthermore, the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index fell to 133.5 and 54.4, respectively. CME FedWatch Tool puts the odds of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in June at 65%. Traders are also pricing in up to 100 bps in cuts by year-end, a key factor keeping the US Dollar near multi-year lows. Traders now look to Wednesday's key US data – the ADP report on private-sector employment, the Advance Q1 GDP, and the Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. Adding to this the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday may provide insight into the Fed's policy outlook.In the meantime, the divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations should continue to act as a tailwind for the lower-yielding JPY and cap the upside for the USD/JPY pair. USD/JPY bears need to wait for a sustained break below the 142.00 mark before placing fresh betsFrom a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair earlier this week struggled to find acceptance above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and faced rejection near the 144.00 mark. The subsequent downfall and negative oscillators on hourly/daily charts validate the near-term negative outlook. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the 142.00 mark before positioning for deeper losses. Spot prices might then accelerate the fall towards the mid-141.00s en route to the 141.10-141.00 region. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the 140.50 intermediate support before the pair eventually drops to the multi-month low – levels below the 140.00 psychological mark touched last week.On the flip side, the 142.60-142.65 region is likely to act as an immediate hurdle, above which a bout of a short-covering could lift the USD/JPY pair beyond the 143.00 mark, towards the next relevant resistance near the 143.40-143.45 zone. A sustained strength beyond the latter should allow spot prices to conquer the 144.00 round figure. Acceptance above the latter would suggest that the currency pair has formed a near-term bottom and pave the way for some meaningful upside. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

05:01 Australian Dollar gains ground following CPI, China's PMI data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is gaining ground on Wednesday following a more than 0.50% decline against the US Dollar (USD) in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair appreciates following the release of key economic data from Australia and China.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar is regaining ground after the release of key economic data from both Australia and China.Australia’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% QoQ in Q1, up from a 0.2% previous increase and a 0.8% expected rise.China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, returning to contraction in the sector.The Australian Dollar (AUD) is gaining ground on Wednesday following a more than 0.50% decline against the US Dollar (USD) in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair appreciates following the release of key economic data from Australia and China.The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, up from a 0.2% increase in Q4 2024 and exceeding market expectations of a 0.8% rise. On an annual basis, CPI climbed 2.4% in the first quarter, beating the forecast of 2.2%.Australia’s Monthly CPI held steady with a 2.4% year-over-year increase in March. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Trimmed Mean CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year in Q1, in line with expectations, while the quarterly figure also met forecasts at 0.7%.In China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slipped to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, falling short of the 49.9 consensus and indicating a return to contraction. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also softened, easing to 50.4 in April from 50.8 in March, below the expected 50.7.The AUD faced headwinds amid ongoing global trade uncertainties that continue to dampen investor sentiment. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures in Australia in early 2025 have weakened expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Markets widely anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut in May, as policymakers prepare for possible economic fallout from the recently introduced US tariffs.Australian Dollar recovers ground as confidence in American assets weakensThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, is maintaining its position above the 99.00 level at the time of writing. Attention now turns to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report for March, due later on Wednesday.On Tuesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) openings dropped to 7.19 million in March, down from a revised 7.48 million in February and below the market forecast of 7.5 million. This marks the lowest level since September 2024, reflecting softening labor demand amid growing economic uncertainty in the United States (US).US President Donald Trump signaled openness to reducing Chinese tariffs, while Beijing exempted certain US goods from its 125% levies. This move has fueled hopes that the prolonged trade war between the world's two largest economies might be drawing to a close.President Trump said that there has been progress, and he has talked with China’s President Xi Jinping. However, a Chinese embassy spokesperson on Friday firmly denied any current negotiations with the US, stating, "China and the US are not having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs." The spokesperson urged Washington to "stop creating confusion."According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump intends to lessen the impact of his automotive tariffs by ensuring that duties on foreign-made cars do not stack with other tariffs and by reducing levies on foreign parts used in car production.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that he interacted with Chinese authorities last week but did not mention tariffs. Bessent stated that while the US government is in communication with China, it is up to Beijing to make the first move to ease the tariff dispute, given the trade imbalance between the two countries.Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Tuesday that making concessions and retreating would only embolden the bully, emphasizing that dialogue is key to resolving differences.China's Finance Ministry stated on Friday that global economic growth remains sluggish, with tariffs and trade wars continuing to undermine economic and financial stability. The ministry urged all parties to enhance the international economic and financial system through stronger multilateral cooperation, per Reuters.Australian Dollar moves below 0.6400; tests nine-day EMAThe AUD/USD pair is hovering around 0.6390 on Wednesday, with the daily chart reflecting a bullish outlook. The pair continues to trade above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds well above the 50 level—both suggesting sustained upward momentum.On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the recent four-month high of 0.6449, which was reached on April 29. A decisive break above this level could pave the way for a move toward the five-month high at 0.6515.The nine-day EMA at 0.6382 appears as the immediate support, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6314. A break below these support levels would weaken the bullish structure and may expose the pair to deeper losses, potentially targeting the March 2020 low around 0.5914.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.24% 0.12% 0.07% 0.06% -0.22% 0.01% 0.03% EUR -0.24% -0.11% -0.16% -0.18% -0.46% -0.22% -0.20% GBP -0.12% 0.11% -0.08% -0.07% -0.35% -0.11% -0.10% JPY -0.07% 0.16% 0.08% -0.02% -0.29% 0.00% -0.02% CAD -0.06% 0.18% 0.07% 0.02% -0.28% -0.04% -0.02% AUD 0.22% 0.46% 0.35% 0.29% 0.28% 0.24% 0.26% NZD -0.01% 0.22% 0.11% -0.00% 0.04% -0.24% 0.02% CHF -0.03% 0.20% 0.10% 0.02% 0.02% -0.26% -0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY) The Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The indicator was developed to provide inflation data at a higher frequency than the quarterly CPI. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Wed Apr 30, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 2.4% Consensus: - Previous: 2.4% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

04:50 China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI drops to 50.4 in April vs. 49.9 expected
China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 50.4 in April from 51.2 in March, according to the latest data released on Wednesday.

04:45 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI registered at 50.4 above expectations (49.9) in April
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI registered at 50.4 above expectations (49.9) in April

04:33 China's NBS Manufacturing PMI contracts to 49 in April, Non-Manufacturing PMI dips to 50.4
China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) contracted to 49 in April, compared to March’s 50.5. The reading came in below the market consensus of 49.9 in the reported month.

China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) contracted to 49 in April, compared to March’s 50.5. The reading came in below the market consensus of 49.9 in the reported month. more to come ...

04:31 China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (50.7) in April: Actual (50.4)
China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (50.7) in April: Actual (50.4)

04:30 Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) remains at 6.5% in March
Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) remains at 6.5% in March

04:30 Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) meets forecasts (0.5%) in March
Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) meets forecasts (0.5%) in March

04:30 Australia Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (2.2%) in 1Q: Actual (2.4%)
Australia Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (2.2%) in 1Q: Actual (2.4%)

04:30 China NBS Manufacturing PMI registered at 49, below expectations (49.9) in April
China NBS Manufacturing PMI registered at 49, below expectations (49.9) in April

04:30 Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.7%) in 1Q
Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.7%) in 1Q

04:30 Australia Consumer Price Index (QoQ) registered at 0.9% above expectations (0.8%) in 1Q
Australia Consumer Price Index (QoQ) registered at 0.9% above expectations (0.8%) in 1Q

04:30 Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.9%) in 1Q
Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.9%) in 1Q

04:26 Japan’s Akazawa: Assessing impact of recent changes to US auto tariffs
Japanese Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Wednesday that they are “assessing impact of recent changes to US auto tariffs.”

Japanese Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Wednesday that they are “assessing impact of recent changes to US auto tariffs.”He added that the “aim is to make progress in US tariff talks, based on the understanding that a win-win agreement is crucial.”

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2014 vs. 7.2029 previous
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2014 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2029 and 7.2670 Reuters estimate.

04:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence declined to 49.3 in April from previous 57.5
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence declined to 49.3 in April from previous 57.5

03:56 GBP/USD holds positive ground above 1.3400, eyes on key US data releases
The GBP/USD pair trades with mild gains near 1.3405 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The weaker-than-expected US economic data drags the Greenback lower.

03:03 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts lower to near $3,310 ahead of key US data releases
The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the decline to near $3,315 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal edges lower amid easing trade tensions and better risk sentiment in global markets.

02:57 Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM): -1.2% (March) vs previous 0.5%
Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM): -1.2% (March) vs previous 0.5%

02:54 Japan Large Retailer Sales increased to 3% in March from previous 2%
Japan Large Retailer Sales increased to 3% in March from previous 2%

02:50 Japan Retail Trade (YoY) below forecasts (3.5%) in March: Actual (3.1%)
Japan Retail Trade (YoY) below forecasts (3.5%) in March: Actual (3.1%)

02:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) declined to -0.3% in March from previous 0.1%
Japan Industrial Production (YoY) declined to -0.3% in March from previous 0.1%

02:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) registered at -1.1%, below expectations (-0.4%) in March
Japan Industrial Production (MoM) registered at -1.1%, below expectations (-0.4%) in March

02:10 EUR/USD gathers strength to near 1.1400 ahead of German data, US PCE releases
The EUR/USD pair gains ground to near 1.1390 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower against the Euro (EUR) due to softer-than-expected US economic data.

02:00 South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) dipped from previous 7% to 5.3% in March
South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) dipped from previous 7% to 5.3% in March

02:00 South Korea Service Sector Output down to -0.3% in March from previous 0.5%
South Korea Service Sector Output down to -0.3% in March from previous 0.5%

02:00 South Korea Industrial Output Growth rose from previous 1% to 2.9% in March
South Korea Industrial Output Growth rose from previous 1% to 2.9% in March

01:25 Mexican Peso firms as softer US data boosts risk appetite
The Mexican Peso (MXN) appreciated against the US Dollar (USD) after touching a daily low of 19.65, as risk appetite improved following the release of softer-than-expected data. At the time of writing, USD/MXN trades at 19.56, down 0.12%.

01:00 USD/JPY edges higher as softer US data weighs on yields despite trade uncertainty
The USD/JPY pair is trading around the 142.00 handle during the North American session on Tuesday. The pair saw some upward movement as the US Dollar (USD) steadied following the release of softer-than-expected US JOLTS Job Openings data and a sharp drop in Consumer Confidence.

USD/JPY trades in the mid-142.00 area after mixed US economic data and cautious trade comments.Weaker US JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence figures contrast with ongoing US-China trade uncertainty.Technical indicators suggest a bearish bias with key SMAs pointing lower, while immediate support and resistance levels are in focus.The USD/JPY pair is trading around the 142.00 handle during the North American session on Tuesday. The pair saw some upward movement as the US Dollar (USD) steadied following the release of softer-than-expected US JOLTS Job Openings data and a sharp drop in Consumer Confidence. However, gains remain limited due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade negotiations, particularly with China.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced a notable surge of over 300 points, or 0.80%, as weaker US economic data hinted at potential future interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in US Treasury yields. Despite this positive sentiment in the equity markets, comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding the lack of imminent trade deals and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt's remarks about Amazon's potential tariff disclosures injected a note of caution into the broader market.On the data front, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Job Openings for March fell to 7.19 million, below the expected 7.5 million and the previous reading of 7.48 million. This marked the lowest level since September, indicating a cooling in labor demand. Adding to the downbeat economic picture, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index plummeted to 86.0 in April, its lowest in nearly five years, significantly missing the forecast of 87.5 and the previous month's 93.9. This drop signals increasing pessimism among US consumers.Despite the weaker data, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that President Donald Trump is employing "strategic uncertainty" in trade negotiations. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened across the board, underperforming even other safe-haven currencies, as investors anticipate soft domestic economic releases and upcoming US-Japan trade discussions. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to maintain its current monetary policy, leaving the JPY susceptible to external factors and policy inaction, according to Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne. The BoJ's interest rate decision is scheduled for Thursday.USD/JPY Technical AnalysisFrom a technical analysis perspective, the USD/JPY pair is showing bearish signals. Currently trading around 142.00, the pair has registered a slight gain of approximately 0.22% on the day but remains within a range defined by 141.96 and 142.76. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40.03 offers a neutral outlook and the MACD indicates a potential buy signal, the overall trend appears bearish. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 144.03, the 100-day SMA at 151.16, and the 200-day SMA at 149.95 all suggest selling pressure. The Stochastic RSI Fast at 77.40 and the Bull Bear Power indicator at -1.59 are both neutral. Furthermore, the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 142.80 and the 30-day EMA at 145.13 also point towards a sell signal. Immediate support is identified around 142.26, while resistance levels are clustered at 142.80, 142.87, and 144.02.Daily Chart

00:40 EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Bullish Momentum Holds Despite Minor Dip Before Asia
In the lead-up to Tuesday's Asian trading session, EUR/JPY has seen a minor decline, trading near the 162.00 mark. Despite a sell signal from one momentum indicator, the broader technical landscape suggests underlying bullish strength, supported by several key moving averages.

EUR/JPY was observed trading around the 162.00 region, experiencing a slight pullback on the day.The overall technical analysis points towards a prevailing bullish sentiment for the currency pair.Key Simple Moving Averages indicate buying interest, while the Relative Strength Index is neutral, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence suggests selling pressure.In the lead-up to Tuesday's Asian trading session, EUR/JPY has seen a minor decline, trading near the 162.00 mark. Despite a sell signal from one momentum indicator, the broader technical landscape suggests underlying bullish strength, supported by several key moving averages.The EUR/JPY pair currently displays a bullish technical outlook. While the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is showing a sell signal, potentially indicating some short-term downward pressure, the longer-term trend appears positive. The Relative Strength Index resides in neutral territory around the 52 level, not providing a strong directional cue. However, the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages are all signaling buy opportunities, underscoring sustained bullish momentum across various time horizons. Similarly, the 30-day Exponential Moving Average and Simple Moving Average also support this upward trajectory. The Stochastic %K and Stochastic RSI Fast are both currently neutral.Considering potential trading levels, immediate support is identified at 162.01, followed by 161.97 and then a lower level at 161.92. On the resistance side, the first barrier is at 162.17, with subsequent resistance levels at 162.22 and 162.68.Daily Chart

00:30 Australia CPI expected to show inflation eased further in Q1, backing case for more rate cuts
Australia will release multiple inflation figures on Wednesday and financial markets anticipate price pressures easing further at the beginning of 2025, paving the way for additional Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate cuts.

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.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian monthly Consumer Price Index is foreseen at 2.3% in March. Quarterly CPI inflation expected to ease further below 3%, with core figures meeting RBA’s goal.The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet in mid-May to decide on monetary policy.The Australian Dollar eases vs its American rival after reaching a fresh 2025 high.Australia will release multiple inflation figures on Wednesday and financial markets anticipate price pressures easing further at the beginning of 2025, paving the way for additional Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate cuts. The central bank is meant to meet to decide on monetary policy on May 19-20. Back to data, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will publish two different inflation gauges: the quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first quarter of 2025 and the March monthly CPI, which measures annual price pressures over the past twelve months. The quarterly report includes the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI, policymakers’ favorite inflation gauge. The RBA has maintained the Official Cash Rate (OCR) on hold at 4.10% when it met early April, after delivering a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in February, the first one after the hiking cycle that began in 2022. What to expect from Australia’s inflation rate numbers?The ABS is expected to report that the monthly CPI rose by 2.3% in the year to March, easing from the 2.4% posted in February. The quarterly CPI is foreseen to increase by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and by 2.2% year-on-year (YoY) in the first quarter of 2025. Additionally, the central bank’s preferred gauge, the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI, is expected to rise by 2.9% YoY in Q4, easing from the 3.2% advance posted in the previous quarter.Finally, the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI is forecast to increase by 0.7% QoQ, higher than the 0.5% previously posted. Still, the figures will fall within the RBA’s goal to keep inflation between 2 and 3%, which means the central bank could deliver additional interest rate cuts in the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, economic activity in the country, as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), picked up modestly in the last quarter of 2025, with GDP growing by 0.6% in real terms, surpassing the market expectations of 0.5% and marking the strongest performance since December 2022. The annual growth rate of 1.3% also exceeded the consensus forecast of 1.2%. The modest advance spooked the ghost of recession, albeit the economy is not yet out of the woods. Finally, it's worth adding that Australia’s GDP growth is projected to reach approximately 2.2% in 2025, according to the most recent forecasts from the RBA. Beyond the central banks’ inflation goal, tepid growth has been part of policymakers’ decision to trim interest rates, to help avoid a steeper economic setback. Meanwhile, the United States (US) President Donald Trump started a global trade war. After announcing tariffs on neighbouring countries, Trump launched “reciprocal tariffs” on most trading partners. Australia fell into the 10% baseline levy while facing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium exports into the US. However, most tensions lay between China and the US, with tariffs in the hundreds. China is Australia's major trading partner, and the local economy may suffer the echoes of tensions between the world’s largest economies.Additionally, concerns related to the trade war's impact on the US economy keep the US Dollar (USD) on the back foot. The USD fell to fresh 2025 lows against most major rivals in April and retains its soft tone regardless of the market’s sentiment. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock noted, “If there are large tariffs on China, Chinese trade will probably try to find other ways to find an outlet. Australia might even be a beneficiary of that. So we might, in fact, find some deflationary impacts for Australia if it rolls out that way.” How could the Consumer Price Index report affect AUD/USD?Inflation figures are, as usual, crucial. Easing inflationary pressures should fuel bets on an RBA rate cut in May.Generally speaking, higher CPI figures would be bullish for the AUD amid expectations of a hawkish RBA. However, the opposite scenario is also valid: easing inflation could push policymakers towards a more dovish stance. Heading into the CPI release, the AUD/USD pair trades around the 0.6400 mark, retreating from a fresh yearly high of 0.6450. Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, says: “The AUD/USD pair is consolidating gains and despite intraday back and forth, the bullish case remains firm in place. Technical readings in the daily chart suggest the pair may correct lower, as technical indicators ease from their recent peaks near overbought readings. Still, the case for a bearish breakout remains far away.”Bednarik adds: “The AUD/USD pair should find initial near-term support in the 0.6340 region, with further slides exposing the 0.6280 price zone, where a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) converges with a flat 100 SMA. It would take a break below this area to anticipate a steeper slide towards the 0.6200 mark. A bullish extension beyond the year high should result in AUD/USD testing sellers’ determination around the 0.6500 figure.” Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative. Economic Indicator Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY) The Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The indicator was developed to provide inflation data at a higher frequency than the quarterly CPI. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 30, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: - Previous: 2.4% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

00:15 AUD/NZD: Bearish signals emerge ahead of Asia open
The AUD/NZD has experienced some downward pressure, hovering near the 1.07 zone on Tuesday. Despite mixed signals from some momentum indicators, the longer-term technical picture appears to favor the bears, with several moving averages reinforcing this sentiment.

AUD/NZD was seen trading around the 1.07 area, registering a slight decline on the day.The overall technical outlook suggests a bearish bias for the currency pair.Key Simple Moving Averages point to selling pressure, while the Relative Strength Index remains neutral, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence shows a buy signal.The AUD/NZD has experienced some downward pressure, hovering near the 1.07 zone on Tuesday. Despite mixed signals from some momentum indicators, the longer-term technical picture appears to favor the bears, with several moving averages reinforcing this sentiment.The AUD/NZD pair is currently exhibiting a bearish technical bias. While the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is flashing a buy signal, suggesting potential short-term upward momentum, the broader context leans negative. The Relative Strength Index sits in neutral territory around the 42 level, offering little directional conviction at present. However, both the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages are indicating sell positions, highlighting sustained bearish momentum over different timeframes. Similarly, the 30-day Exponential Moving Average and Simple Moving Average also point towards further declines.Looking at potential price movements, immediate support is observed at 1.0746, followed by 1.0739 and then a lower level at 1.0717. On the upside, initial resistance can be found at 1.0774, with subsequent resistance levels at 1.0781 and 1.0786.Daily chart

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20:57 Bank of Canada minutes: Council split over cutting or holding rates due to tariffs risks The Bank of Canada revealed the minutes of the meeting held on April 16, which showed that the Governing Council was divided over whether to cut rates or keep them unchanged.

19:45 USD/CHF down as soft US data and China slowdown hit sentiment The USD/CHF is trading with losses, staying close to its recent lows after a wave of soft US data and deteriorating macro signals from China triggered broad risk-off flows in the market.

19:05 EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Sterling slips as euro regains traction post-Europe The EUR/GBP is trading with mild gains on Wednesday, hovering around the mid-0.8500 zone following the European session. The pair rebounded within the day’s range, showing modest upward pressure.

19:00 Russia Unemployment Rate came in at 2.3%, below expectations (2.4%) in March Russia Unemployment Rate came in at 2.3%, below expectations (2.4%) in March

18:43 GBP/USD drops as US economy shrinks, inflation holds firm The Pound Sterling tumbled against the US dollar as the economy in the United States contracted, as revealed by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for Q1 2025. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3331, down 0.51%

18:04 Colombia National Jobless Rate declined to 9.6% in March from previous 10.3% Colombia National Jobless Rate declined to 9.6% in March from previous 10.3%

17:50 Chinese Gold ETF outflows signal holiday-liquidity risks, not trend shift – TDS Chinese Gold ETFs recorded their largest outflows in 264 trading sessions, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change below forecasts (-0.6M) in April 25: Actual (-2.696M) United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change below forecasts (-0.6M) in April 25: Actual (-2.696M)

17:03 USD/CAD remains unchanged above 1.3800 after US/Canada GDP data The USD/CAD pair has not moved much and stays around 1.3830 during the North American trading session on Wednesday after the release of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data of both the United States (US) and Canada.

17:00 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.1%) in March: Actual (0%) United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.1%) in March: Actual (0%)

17:00 United States Personal Income (MoM) above forecasts (0.4%) in March: Actual (0.5%) United States Personal Income (MoM) above forecasts (0.4%) in March: Actual (0.5%)

17:00 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0%) in March United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0%) in March

17:00 United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) rose from previous -3.6% to -0.6% in March United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) rose from previous -3.6% to -0.6% in March

17:00 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.6%) in March United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.6%) in March

17:00 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2.2%) in March: Actual (2.3%) United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2.2%) in March: Actual (2.3%)

17:00 United States Personal Spending registered at 0.7% above expectations (0.6%) in March United States Personal Spending registered at 0.7% above expectations (0.6%) in March

17:00 United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) above expectations (-0.3%) in March: Actual (6.1%) United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) above expectations (-0.3%) in March: Actual (6.1%)

16:53 China April PMIs show trade war hit – ABN AMRO China’s April manufacturing PMIs clearly hit by US-China trade war. Official non-manufacturing PMI and composite PMI also came down. Concrete signs of export shock make stepping up of support likely.

16:45 United States Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index below forecasts (45.5) in April: Actual (44.6) United States Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index below forecasts (45.5) in April: Actual (44.6)

15:31 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) rose from previous 2.6% to 3.5% in 1Q United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) rose from previous 2.6% to 3.5% in 1Q

15:31 United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index climbed from previous 2.3% to 3.7% in 1Q United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index climbed from previous 2.3% to 3.7% in 1Q

15:30 United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized below forecasts (0.4%) in 1Q: Actual (-0.3%) United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized below forecasts (0.4%) in 1Q: Actual (-0.3%)

15:30 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) up to 3.6% in 1Q from previous 2.4% United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) up to 3.6% in 1Q from previous 2.4%

15:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) below forecasts (0%) in February: Actual (-0.2%) Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) below forecasts (0%) in February: Actual (-0.2%)

15:30 United States Employment Cost Index meets expectations (0.9%) in 1Q United States Employment Cost Index meets expectations (0.9%) in 1Q

15:21 US ADP private sector employment rises 62,000 in April vs. 108,000 expected Private sector employment in the US rose 62,000 in April and annual paw was up 4.5% year-over-year, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday.

15:15 United States ADP Employment Change below forecasts (108K) in April: Actual (62K) United States ADP Employment Change below forecasts (108K) in April: Actual (62K)

15:03 Germany annual CPI inflation declines to 2.1% in April Inflation in Germany, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), edged lower to 2.1% on a yearly basis in April from 2.2% in March, Destatis' flash estimate showed on Wednesday.

15:01 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) up to 0.6% in 1Q from previous 0.5% Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) up to 0.6% in 1Q from previous 0.5%

15:01 Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.1% (April) vs previous 2.2% Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.1% (April) vs previous 2.2%

15:00 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) increased to 0.2% in 1Q from previous -0.6% Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) increased to 0.2% in 1Q from previous -0.6%

15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above forecasts (0.3%) in April Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above forecasts (0.3%) in April

15:00 South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) increased to 24.77B in March from previous 20.9B South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) increased to 24.77B in March from previous 20.9B

15:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at 0.5%, above expectations (0.4%) in April Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at 0.5%, above expectations (0.4%) in April

15:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) above forecasts (2.1%) in April: Actual (2.2%) Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) above forecasts (2.1%) in April: Actual (2.2%)

14:55 GBP soft in quiet trade, consolidating recent rally – Scotiabank Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most G10 currencies in quiet, mixed trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:51 India M3 Money Supply climbed from previous 9.5% to 9.6% in April 14 India M3 Money Supply climbed from previous 9.5% to 9.6% in April 14

14:50 CAD holds trading range – Scotiabank April has been good for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) (it’s strongest month against the US Dollar (USD) since 2019) but spot continues to range trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:48 USD consolidates ahead of GDP – Scotiabank The US Dollar (USD) continues to consolidate and is trading mixed versus its major currency peers on the session.

14:45 EUR marginally weaker – Scotiabank GDP surprises to upside and German state-level CPI data are strong

14:13 US Dollar edges higher ahead of top-tier PCE and GDP data releases The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, edges slightly higher and trades at 99.40 at the time of writing on Wednesday.

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications rose from previous -12.7% to -4.2% in April 25 United States MBA Mortgage Applications rose from previous -12.7% to -4.2% in April 25

13:15 EUR/GBP holds near 0.85 as UK outlook softens – Danske Bank EUR/GBP remained close to the 0.85 mark during yesterday's session, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

13:12 BoJ is going to sit this one out – Commerzbank While we enjoy the bank holiday tomorrow morning, the Bank of Japan will be holding its May monetary policy meeting. Having raised its key interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5% in January, the Bank of Japan then decided to pause in March.

13:11 EUR/USD slips as Eurozone major economies report soft inflation data EUR/USD drops to near 1.1370 during European trading hours on Wednesday.

13:02 Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) fell from previous 0.7% to -0.9% in March Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) fell from previous 0.7% to -0.9% in March

13:01 Italy Producer Price Index (MoM) declined to -2.4% in March from previous 0.7% Italy Producer Price Index (MoM) declined to -2.4% in March from previous 0.7%

13:01 Italy Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 6.2% to 3.9% in March Italy Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 6.2% to 3.9% in March

13:00 Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) declined to -1.3% in March from previous 1.8% Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) declined to -1.3% in March from previous 1.8%

12:52 US: The tariff house of cards is collapsing – Commerzbank To the impartial observer, it should be quite obvious that the US government's trade policy strategy is currently failing spectacularly. Chinese President Xi Jingping is refusing to call to make a 'deal'.

12:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:11 US Dollar Index advances to near 99.50 as US yields rebound ahead of Core PCE data The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, extends its gains for a second consecutive day, trading near 99.40 during Wednesday’s European session.

12:04 Australia: Pencilling in a rate cut by RBA in May – Standard Chartered Q1 trimmed mean CPI fell into the RBA’s 2-3% target range for the first time since end-2021. The growth/stability trade-off likely favours more RBA cuts amid growth headwinds posed by US tariffs.

12:01 Eurozone Preliminary GDP rises 0.4% QoQ in Q1 vs. 0.2% expected The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.4% in the three months to March of 2025 after growing by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, the preliminary estimate released by Eurostat showed Wednesday.

12:01 USD: The worse the data, the better? – Commerzbank Yesterday saw the next round of poor sentiment indicators from the US. According to the Conference Board, US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

12:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) above expectations (0.2%) in 1Q: Actual (0.4%) Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) above expectations (0.2%) in 1Q: Actual (0.4%)

12:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) came in at 1.2%, above forecasts (0.2%) in 1Q Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) came in at 1.2%, above forecasts (0.2%) in 1Q

12:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in April Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in April

12:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM): 0.5% (April) vs previous 1.6% Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM): 0.5% (April) vs previous 1.6%

12:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (2%) in April Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (2%) in April

12:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) below forecasts (2.3%) in April: Actual (2.1%) Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) below forecasts (2.3%) in April: Actual (2.1%)

12:00 Greece Retail Sales (YoY): 4.6% (February) vs 1.9% Greece Retail Sales (YoY): 4.6% (February) vs 1.9%

12:00 Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM): 9% (March) vs 8.6% Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM): 9% (March) vs 8.6%

12:00 Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 0.6% to 2.1% in March Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 0.6% to 2.1% in March

12:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) above forecasts (1%) in 1Q: Actual (1.2%) Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) above forecasts (1%) in 1Q: Actual (1.2%)

11:59 USD/CAD ticks higher amid bearish Oil prices, remains below mid-1.3800s ahead of US data The USD/CAD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move through the first half of the European session on Wednesday and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past two weeks.

11:57 President Xi: China needs to adapt to changing situations Speaking at a symposium on economic development on Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that “China needs to adapt to changing situations.”

11:45 High inventory adds pressure on oil – ING The oil market continued to decline for a third straight session this morning, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

11:36 EUR/JPY holds ground near 162.50 following key economic data from Germany EUR/JPY halts its two-day losing streak, trading around 162.40 during the European session on Wednesday. The currency cross holds ground following the release of key economic data from Germany.

11:07 Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) rose from previous 2.3% to 2.4% in April Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) rose from previous 2.3% to 2.4% in April

11:06 Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.4% to 0.5% in April Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.4% to 0.5% in April

11:06 Spain Current Account Balance: €2.31B (February) vs €1.2B Spain Current Account Balance: €2.31B (February) vs €1.2B

11:04 Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.2% to 0.5% in April Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.2% to 0.5% in April

11:04 Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) down to 2.2% in April from previous 2.3% Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) down to 2.2% in April from previous 2.3%

11:03 Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) increased to 2.4% in April from previous 2.2% Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) increased to 2.4% in April from previous 2.2%

11:03 Germany Saxony CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 2.5% to 2.4% in April Germany Saxony CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 2.5% to 2.4% in April

11:03 Germany Saxony CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.6% to 0.5% in April Germany Saxony CPI (MoM) dipped from previous 0.6% to 0.5% in April

11:01 Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.4% to 0.5% in April Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) climbed from previous 0.4% to 0.5% in April

11:01 Italy Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.3%, above expectations (0.2%) in 1Q Italy Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.3%, above expectations (0.2%) in 1Q